Epidemic

A cross-sectional epidemiological survey for paracoccidioidomycosis and histoplasmosis, including skin tests with paracoccidioidin and histoplasmin, physical examinations and X-rays, wasconducted among three Tupi-Monde Amerindian populations from Brazilian Amazonia. The study followed the diagnosis of an increasing number of cases of paracoccidioidomycosis among the Surui in recent years. Positivity rates to paracoccidioidin and histoplasmin (>5 mm of intradermal induration 24-48 h post-injection) were 438% and 78-7% for the Surui, 64% and 58% for the Gaviao and 149% and 805% for the Zoro, respectively. There was no significant difference in the results for males and females but marked differences were noted across age groups. The results of the univariate analysis were confirmed after adjustment for confounding variables by multiple logistic regression analysis: paracoccidioidin positivity was relatively high in the Surui and histoplasmin positivity was relatively high in the Surui and Zoro. The Surui's greater exposure to Paracoccidioides brasiliensis, the causative agent of paracoccidioidomycosis, is probably associated with their adoption of new subsistence practices. The epidemiology of this mycosis among the Tupi-Monde appears to be related to the environmental and socioeconomic changes taking place in Amazonia.

Currently, the whole world is fighting a very dangerous and infectious disease caused by the novel coronavirus, called COVID-19. The COVID-19 is rapidly spreading around the world due to its high infection rate. Therefore, early discovery of COVID-19 is crucial to better treat the infected person as well as to slow down the spread of this virus. However, the current solution for detecting COVID-19 cases including the PCR test, CT images, epidemiologically history, and clinical symptoms suffer from high false positive. To overcome this problem, we have developed a novel transfer deep learning approach for detecting COVID-19 based on x-ray images. Our approach helps medical staff in determining if a patient is normal, has COVID-19, or other pneumonia. Our approach relies on pre-trained models including Inception-V3, Xception, and MobileNet to perform two tasks: i) binary classification to determine if a person infected with COVID-19 or not and ii) a multi-task classification problem t...

RESUMEN Las epidemias o pandemias, se configuran como eventos correspondientes a un riesgo de tipo biológico, que puede ser de origen natural o antrópico, intencional o involuntario, que causan gran impacto en la población, al mostrarse la vulnerabilidad del ser humano, por lo que los Estados, Gobiernos y las diversas entidades que lo conforman, eventualmente con el apoyo de organismos internacionales y ONG, buscan brindar una respuesta oportuna para reducir la incertidumbre y temor existente en la ciudadanía. Es así que, parte de las instituciones que apoyan a la primera respuesta, es el poder militar, que con sus capacidades de movilización, logística, liderazgo, comando y control, entre otras capacidades, proporciona sus recursos humanos, medios y equipos para enfrentar estas amenazas que además de ser un problema de salud pública, se convierten en un problema para la seguridad, paz y estabilidad de un Estado. Y aunque en todos los países se considere al sector de Defensa para fortalecer la respuesta, existen similitudes y diferencias con respecto a su empleo, identificándose además la importancia de la preparación y la sincronización de planes entre los entes civil y militar para mejorar sus capacidades al momento de atender emergencias de este tipo. Finalmente, se considera la importancia de cuidar al personal militar que cumplirá misiones de apoyo a otras entidades del Estado, donde la salud física y psicológica evitará mermar la capacidad de ayuda, así como actividades de entrenamiento, organización y generación de doctrina, para contar con unidades listas que colaboren eficazmente y no entorpezcan las acciones, especialmente en funciones que van más allá de las actividades de protección, asilamiento y seguridad física. ABSTRACT Epidemics or pandemics are configured as events corresponding to a biological risk, which can be natural or anthropogenic origin, intentional or involuntary, which cause a great impact on the population, showing the vulnerability of the human being, Thus the States, governments and various entities that conform it, eventually with the support of international organizations and NGO's, seek to provide a timely response to reduce the uncertainty and fear that exists in the citizenry. Thereby, part of the institutions that support the first response is the military power, which with its mobilization, logistics, leadership, command and control, among other capacities, provides its human resources, goods and equipment to face these threats, which in addition of being a problem of public health, can become a problem for the security, peace and stability of a State. And although in all countries the Defense sector is considered to strengthen the response, there are similarities and differences regarding their employ, also identifying the importance of preparing and synchronizing plans between civil and military entities to improve their capabilities by time to attend emergencies of this type. Finally, it is considered the importance of taking care of military personnel who will carry out support missions to other State entities, where physical and psychological health will avoid diminishing the aid capacity, as well as training activities, organization and generation of doctrine, to have ready units that collaborate effectively and do not hind actions, especially in functions that go beyond protection, isolation and physical security activities.

Problemele de astăzi (chiar și cele privind modul împărtășirii credincioșilor, dar nu numai), care nu sunt foarte diferite de cele ale oricărei alte perioade, mai mult sau mai puțin grele din viața Bisericii, nu ar trebui să ne preocupe în mod deosebit, în sensul că nu reprezintă o prioritate absolută, ci mai degrabă, să ne îngrijim cum să rămânem fideli, cu desăvârșire, față de Tradiția Bisericii noastre, în astfel de circumstanțe.

A place with clean water is worth living for, however, if it runs counter to the usual, it corollary results in some diseases. This epidemiological study does not intend to give a false image on the Kawasan Waterfalls of Badian Cebu, Philippines rather, it aids to provide awareness among tourists to at least minimize anthropological activities that could contribute to water pollutants which cause an increased amount of heavy metals present in the water. With the collection of analyte and lab testing for the presence of cadmium, lead, and mercury in the aforementioned research environment, it was found that the water will not pose any health hazard to anyone in and around the river falls and even to any tourist in the place who wants to plunge into its azure water as far as cadmium and lead concentration is concerned. However, the mean concentration of mercury on the water projected a value, which is beyond the permissible concentrations and therefore may harm anyone in the community. Thus, it is recommended to strengthen measures to prevent and to control the release of these substances into the natural water. Shower facilities should be provided in the place and swimmers should wash first before plunging into the river. As part of an ongoing education and training effort, communicate all information on the health and safety hazards of mercury to potentially exposed individuals on the place. It is also suggested to conduct further concentration analysis of other metals present in the said water falls.

Bullet Point Summary:
• The community of Chinese people in Italy has grown rapidly in the past ten years. Official statistics indicate there are at least 320,794 Chinese citizens in Italy. Milan, in Northern Italy where COVID-19 first struck, has the largest Chinese population in Italy.
• Before there was a COVID-19 Coronavirus, there was and still is a tuberculosis global Pandemic, a Pandemic which presently kills someone approximately every 21 seconds — about 1.5 million or more in 2018 alone [ https://www.tballiance.org/why-new-tb-drugs/global-pandemic]. It is still treatable, but only if looked for and considered.  By 2013, Faccini et al reported in Emerging Infectious Diseases, an outbreak of tuberculosis, Beijing strain, in a primary school in Milan, Italy which was eventually traced to include 15 schoolchildren with active TB and 173 with latent infection.
• The coronavirus, AKA Covid-19, first appeared in Lombardy and Veneto. [See Map Figure 1]. Italy's first victim was a 76-year-old woman who was found dead at her home 50 km. (30 miles) south of Milan, in Lombardy, on Thursday, March 12, 2020 and tested positive for the coronavirus. A 78-year-old man died of the infection in a hospital near Padua, in Veneto, during the next evening.
• Traditionally, Italy has a low incidence of tuberculosis (TB); and in 2008, the incidence of notified cases was only 7.6/100,000 population. Yet even by 2009, in Milan, the largest urban area and the birthplace of Italian COVID-19, in Lombardy, the incidence climbed steeply to 20.44/100,000 population. By 2019, Cuomo et al attributed this to rising immigration patterns.
• With the sharp increase in tuberculosis statistics, the basis of what would happen to Northern Italy had been laid, the tripling of an “underlying” tubercular medical condition that could provide fertile grounds to foster a second pandemic pathogen. But what would happen next in Northern Italy was an event that no one could have foreseen.
• On January 22nd, 2020, Customs authorities from the Guardia di Finanza in the northern Italian city of Padua seized and burnt nearly 10 tons of Chinese pig meat, potentially infected with African swine fever. By the end of 2019, half of China’s swine herd —250 million pigs, were dead. Padua is located in the Veneto region of Italy. The coronavirus, AKA Covid-19, first appeared in Lombardy (Milan) and Veneto (Padua). Swine fever is deadly among pigs, though it poses no risk to humans.
• But if Italy thought it had incinerated its problems away by burning tainted Chinese pig meat, much of which probably originated from Wuhan’s vast pig reservoir, it had another thought coming. Now, infectious particles were circulating through the air of Northern Italy. Furthermore, if Swine fever posed no risk to humans, what did pose a risk is a common disease in pigs called Mycobacterium avium (AKA MAC or fowl tuberculosis), a non-tubercular mycobacteria (NTM). In one study, the incidence of Mycobacterium avium (fowl tuberculosis) in a pig population was an astonishing 81%. As reported by some workers, M. avium isolates from swine represent a major threat to human beings. And the similarity of the IS1245 RFLP [restriction fragment length polymorphism (RFLP)] patterns of the human and porcine isolates indicated a close genetic relatedness, suggesting that M. avium is transmitted between pigs and humans. Such M. avium infection can occur wherever the right “underlying pulmonary conditions” exist, which can be an event as simple as a childhood or reactivated tubercular infection, or merely tying up the lungs with an excess of dust or particulate matter.
• Thus, just before the event attributed to COVID-19 in Northern Italy began, a deadly combination of rising TB rates followed by the introduction of porcine [from pigs] M. avium [also called fowl tuberculosis] into the environment would eventually first bring the Italian Northern provinces, and then the entire peninsula to its knees. This precise series of events led to the Great Pandemic of 1918 at Fort Funston and the Chinese episode at Wuhan, a major player in China’s pig industry.
• Mycobacterium avium complex (MAC) or mycobacterium avium is a poorly understood disease which fulfills almost all of those characteristic signs and symptoms attributed to the latest “novel” Coronavirus.  In general Mycobacterium avium is a milder disease then Mycobacterium tuberculosis. The most common type of nontuberculous mycobacterial lung infection that causes pulmonary disease in the United States are due to the group of bacteria in the M. avium complex (MAC).
• When it appears in the lungs, Mycobacterium avium favors an older population with an underlying condition. As with COVID-19, not all people with a nontuberculous mycobacterial lung infection such as M. avium need to be treated.  On the other hand, if it disseminates or spreads systemically, the patient can present with fever or high fever, diarrhea, fatigue, shortness of breath, chronic or recurrent sore throat and cough……….most of which have been reported in Coronavirus patients.
• Non-tubercular-mycobacteria (NTM) such as Mycobacterium avium can be asymptomatic or can cause symptoms similar to tuberculosis, such as cough, fever, fatigue, and weight loss.
• It is projected that the present Italian outbreak and outbreaks worldwide will follow the timetable of Yang’s Wuhan study, which describes an annual TB surge in Wuhan as being fueled by increased transmission in the winter; peaking in March, with a second smaller peak in September.

This paper examines the complex nexus of “Text” and “Empirical Reality” as unfolded in the classical discussions on plagues and pandemics. It is argued that whereas practical theology dominated the classical discussions on plagues, applied ethics (particularly, medical ethics) dominated the discussions on the COVID-19 pandemic. The growing power of medicine, the system of modern nation state and the birth of applied ethics as a distinct discipline, all contributed to overshadowing the theological discourse.
This paper is divided into two main sections. The first section examines the pandemic and the particularity of the plague and how this topic moved from being medical, or part of natural sciences, in nature to assuming a religious (metaphysical) character. The second section analyzes how the thesis of the particularity of plague led to (a) epistemological discussions on the sources of knowledge, and the related nexus of text and empirical reality, and delineating the scope of medicine and Sharia and the functions of each of them, and (b) applied discourse within the disciplines of theology and jurisprudence, premised on the thesis of the particularity of plague and related to the concept of practical theology.
يناقش هذا البحث إشكالية العلاقة بين النص والتجربة، وبين النظر والعمل، من خلال النقاشات الكلاسيكية حول وباء الطاعون. ويُحاجّ أنه إذا كان اللاهوت العملي قد هيمن على مناقشة وباء الطاعون، فإن الأخلاقيات التطبيقية (وتحديدًا أسئلة الأخلاق الطبية) قد هيمنت في ظل وباء كورونا. فقد أدى توسع سلطة الطب، ونظام الدولة الحديثة، وبروز حقل الأخلاقيات التطبيقية إلى تراجع الأسئلة الكلامية. ينقسم البحث إلى محورين رئيسين؛ يتناول أولهما الوباء وخصوصية الطاعون، وكيف تحول من موضوع طبي (طبيعي) إلى موضوع ديني (ميتافيزيقي). ويتناول ثانيهما كيف أدى القول بخصوصية الطاعون إلى أمرين، الأول: بروز نقاش منهجي يتصل بمصادر المعرفة التي تمثلت في ثنائية النص والتجربة، وبتحديد طبيعة مجالي الطب والشرع ووظيفة كل منهما. والثاني: بروز مناقشات وتطبيقات فقهية وكلامية تتأسس على خصوصية الطاعون، وتتصل بفكرة اللاهوت العملي.

The construction of a tool for rating countries’ capacities to prevent, detect and respond to communicable diseases requires the identification of factors of epidemic risk as well as of government capacities to mitigate these. The Joint External Evaluation Tool (JEET) provides a set of indicators to monitor a country’s progress in the implementation of the International Health Regulations and for a rating of epidemic- related capacities. Therefore, the specification of the existing indicators to health emergencies caused by communicable diseases, the identification of additional or proxy indicators and the consideration of their potential quantification are required. The analysis includes a systematic review of the JEET according to criteria of objectivity, reliability and validity, and a literature research to identify related indicators and to discuss their relevance and potential integration into a rating tool.

[fr] « Tu sais d’où ça vient la poignée de main ? C’est comme ça qu’on montrait à un étranger qu’on ne cachait pas une arme, dans l’ancien temps. » Contagion, Steven Soderbergh, 2011

Depuis des décennies, les réalisateurs de fictions, inspirés des romanciers tout aussi nombreux, ont exploité l’épidémie de diverses manières : comme contexte historique général pour raconter autre chose (Isle of the Dead, Robson, 1945), comme sujet médical au cœur d’une investigation (Medical Investigation, Horwitch, 2004), comme processus permettant de faire se multiplier les zombies (Resident Evil, Anderson, 2000) ou encore les vampires (Daybreakers, Spierig, 2010).

Ce travail vise à théoriser un sujet fascinant et étonnant, qui en vient à hanter jusqu’aux toilettes publiques via les écriteaux « lavez-vous bien les mains pour éviter les germes », et à offrir une lecture d’un ensemble de films très présents sur les écrans et pourtant absents des ouvrages de cinéma.

En conjuguant analyse d’images et analyse de récits, cette recherche tente de faire le tour d’une question qui peut, de prime à bord, sembler évidente (montrer l’épidémie à l’écran, c’est donner à voir des contaminés), et qui, en pratique, se révèle plus complexe (comment représenter la contamination, puisque le phénomène microscopique est invisible pour l’œil).

La méthode développée prend appui sur la science et les relations entre l’épidémie, la contagion et la contamination afin de constituer une approche allant du plus général (l’épidémie qui concerne le global, et qui s’illustre jusque dans les synopsis), au plus particulier (la contamination qui relève de l’interpersonnel, et qui se retrouve dans des séquences précises des films).

Au-delà des questions de cinéma et de récit au sens strict, ce mémoire vise à explorer le revers de l’épidémie : l’imaginaire collectif qui en découle. En effet, la façon qu’a le cinéma de représenter ces phénomènes manifeste d’une certaine conception de l’épidémie, qui se propage de film en film, et de spectateur en spectateur.
[en] « You know where this comes from, shaking hands? It was a way of showing a stranger you weren't carrying a weapon in the old days. » Contagion, Steven Soderbergh, 2011

For decades film directors, inspired by numerous novelists, have exploited the epidemic in various ways: as a general historical context to tell another story (Isle of the Dead, Robson, 1945), as a medical topic at the heart of an investigation (Medical Investigation, Horwitch, 2004), or as a process allowing the proliferation of zombies (Resident Evil, Anderson, 2000) or even vampires (Daybreakers, Spierig, 2010).

This work aims at theorising a fascinating and surprising topic – which goes as far as haunting public restrooms with the “Stop Germs: Wash Your Hands” signs – and to offer an overview of films that are very present on our screens and yet absent from scholarly works about cinema.

By combining the analysis of photography with that of narrative, this research tries to address issues which may seem, at first sight, plain and transparent (showing the epidemic is showing contaminated individuals) but prove to be, in practice, much more complex (how can contamination be represented since this microscopic phenomenon is invisible to the eye?).

The developed method leans on science and the ties between epidemic, contagion and contamination in order to establish an approach going from the more general (epidemic, which belongs to the global and is illustrated as far as the film’s synopsis) to the more particular (contamination, which falls under the interpersonal and is represented only in precise sequence of the film).

Beyond questions about cinema or narrative in the strict sense, this final dissertation aims at exploring the other side of epidemic: the collective imaginary it creates. Indeed, the way cinema represents these phenomena indicates a certain conception of epidemic, which spreads from a film to the other, from a viewer to the other.

Epidemic outbreaks threaten jurisdictions beyond domestic boundaries and affect diverse societal interests. How to properly handle them therefore becomes an issue of interest for all stakeholders and individuals. The two current approaches to handling them are called risk analysis and risk governance. Risk analysis is the classical model while risk governance is only emerging. What might risk governance contribute to risk analysis? The recent Ebola Virus Disease (EVD) outbreak presents an opportunity for answering this question. The central argument is that because the EVD outbreak affects jurisdictions beyond domestic boundaries and diverse societal interests, it should be handled through risk governance. An empirical investigation of the adaptive and integrative model of Klinke and Renn (2012) shows that risk governance might contribute new inputs into risk analysis in EVD handling. At the moment, the prevailing EVD handling approach substantially shows elements of risk analysis but lacks the basic elements of risk governance at the domestic level. At the global level, the prevailing approach fully incorporates the elements of risk analysis but not fully those of risk governance. Applying the Klinke and Renn model to augment risk analysis might upgrade the prevailing approach to risk handling, making risk handling outcomes more suitable for stakeholders and individuals. Although the analysis excludes the adaptive aspect and the risk communication, evaluation, monitoring and control elements, it shows the model could make risk analysis more integrative and incorporate risk handling variables more accurately.

In this review study, I reflect on Richard Horton's book and his thesis that Western countries failed in their respond to the current epidemic in the first half of 2020, with a few exceptions. In the five sections of the paper, after an initial modification of Horton's thesis (A), I discuss briefly: the suppression approach in China (B), the mitigation approach in the West (C), the SARS epidemic as the key global public health event (D), the causes of West failure (epistemic, political, ethical, cultural, etc.) (E), and final envoi (F).

According to data compiled by the World Health Organization, since 2018 Ukraine has had the world’s second highest number of measles virus infections. A major increase in the number of individuals infected with measles has been recorded since 2017, when 4,782 cases of measles were diagnosed (in 2016 the corresponding number was a mere 90). In 2018, more than 54,000 infections were recorded, which accounted for more than 64% of all measles cases diagnosed across Europe. In 2019, the situation deteriorated even further. Ukraine’s Ministry of Health estimates that between January and November 2019 more than 57,000 individuals contracted measles. Altogether, in 2017–2019 in Ukraine more than 115,000 individuals caught measles and 41 of them died (including 25 children).

The main reason behind the rapid surge in the incidence rate is the low measles vaccination rate resulting from the crisis in the Ukrainian healthcare sector and from the spread of disinformation regarding the alleged adverse effects of vaccines and their ineffectiveness. This has caused the proportion of infants vaccinated against measles to fall to 42% in 2016, with the corresponding proportion recorded for children aged six and younger being 31%; these were among the world’s lowest vaccination rates. Measures taken by the Ministry of Health have resulted in a major increase in the vaccination rate in Ukrainian society and a reduction in the related epidemiological threat. A major problem continues to be posed by the illegal trade in fake vaccination certificates, which emerged as a result of a powerful anti-vaccination campaign on the Internet and of citizens’ distrust of state healthcare institutions. As a consequence, measles continues to be one of the biggest challenges faced by the state’s health policy.

The aim of this paper is to present the preliminary results
of the preventive field work in the funerary Hypogeum of The
Sagrera (Barcelona). It is a Late Neolithic hypogeum, which has
been considered as an exceptional discovery within the Catalan
archaeology both due to its excellent preservation, to the great
number of individuals buried on it (207 individuals, to waits of
the anthropological study) and also due to its dynamics of use.
We have detected two great phases of the sepulchral chamber. The
first one is characterized by successive inhumations, and significant
spatial arrangements that they turn into secondary deposits.
In a second phase, this dynamic suffers a sudden alteration into
massive and simultaneous inhumations. The total absence of any
signs of violence and the lack of weapons allow us to discard any
war context to explain such inhumations. Therefore, we propose
that a sudden event such as an epidemic would be the likely origin
of this deposit.

Рассматривается вопрос о причинах падения влияния Иосифо-Волоколамского монастыря на управление Русской церковью в последней трети XVI в. В работе приводятся сведения о десятках выходцев из этого монастыря, которые, становясь настоятелями других монастырей и епископами, занимали высшие посты в церковной иерархии. Устанавливается, что резкое ослабление обители Иосифа было связано со значительным сокращением числа ее иноков в ходе мора 1569–1571 гг. В эти годы умерли потенциальные руководители Русской церкви, а также их наставники. С этим было связано укрепление позиций целого ряда других монастырей, которые ранее заметной роли в сфере церковного управления не играли.
The article deals with the reasons of the decline of Iosifo-Volokolamsk Monastery and loss of its influence on the administration of the Russian church at the last quarter of the XVI century. The author gives data about the dozens of monks from Iosifo-Volokolamsk  Monastery who had subsequently held high rank in a hierarchy of the Russian church. The author comes to conclusion that the decline of Iosifo-Volokolamsk Monastery was connected with the high mortality of monks during the pestilence of the 1569-1571. In these years the potential leaders of the Russian church and their preceptors died. Thereby the monasteries which didn’t play a significant role in the sphere of the church administration could strengthen their positions.

This article compares how COVID-19 affected state–society relations differently in two relatively similar countries: Brazil and Argentina. Bringing together social movement theories and ideational institutionalism, we argue that variation in responses to the COVID-19 pandemic is explained by the different roles played by social movements inside and outside government and by contrasting ideational disputes. The extreme uncertainty introduced by the pandemic generated intense contestation about the meaning of the crisis and how to resolve it. In Brazil, progressive social movements not only were excluded from the government coalition, but also had to combat a powerful discourse that denied the existence of a crisis altogether. Such denialism did not flourish in the same way in Argentina, where progressive social movements were part of national government processes. The result was that in Argentina, movement–government dynamics revolved around constructing long-term policy proposals, w...

As a tribute to Charles Zika’s magisterial studies on witchcraft and demonology, and his close attention to visual images as sites of cultural production, this essay focuses on a highly unusual depiction of what I would call a joint angelic and demonic plague strike-force. This surprising pairing of normally mortal enemies is found in a fresco in the Roman church of S. Pietro in Vincoli, depicting an Early Christian epidemic viewed through the prism of contemporary experience, when bubonic plague was a recurring threat. The unlikely duo of angel and demon dominate the centre of the composition. While pope and cardinals process through the corpse-strewn streets, the angel guides the demon to a palace and watches, seemingly with approval, as he strikes the portal with his spear. The dire fate of the building’s inhabitants under the menace of combined angelic and demonic assault is signalled by a dead body sprawled face down over the threshold. The pair’s joint handiwork is everywhere evident: in the foreground, a pile of corpses threatens to spill over into the actual space of the nave, while behind them, another man lies collapsed on the very steps of St Peter’s itself.

This essay interrogates the sources and significance of this extraordinary representation of angels and devils collaborating in the role of humanity’s executioners. Such active collusion between normally opposing forces is virtually unprecedented, but has not been previously remarked upon. Exploration of this representation of plague’s causes sheds new light on Renaissance responses to the disease, both in terms of explanatory models and potential sources of supernatural aid. My study investigates what such images can tell us of contemporary conceptions of the nature and temper of the protagonists, and of the operation of the heavenly hierarchy. How, for example, can this punitive representation of angelic agency be reconciled with the traditionally beneficent activity of angels as divine messengers and guardians of humanity? Is the demon acting from pure malice, or under higher instructions, as the presence of the angel would suggest? How do such images relate to belief in divine causation of the disease? And most crucially of all, what might such an understanding of plague’s origins imply with regards to strategies for avoidance and protection?

Pada artikel ini dibahas model matematika tipe SEIS (Susceptible Exposed Infective Susceptible)  untuk
menggambarkan penyebaran penyakit melalui transportasi antar -dua kota. Dari hasil analisis, titik kesetimbangan
yang diperoleh yaitu titik bebas penyakit dan endemi. Syarat keberadaan dan kestabilan titik kesetimbangan
ditentukan oleh angka reproduksi dasar yang dicari dengan menggunakan metode pendekatan operator generasi
selanjutnya. Titik kesetimbangan bebas penyakit selalu ada, serta bersifat stabil jika angka reproduksi dasar lebih
kecil atau sama dengan satu, sedangkan titik kesetimbangan endemi hanya ada dan bersifat stabil jika angka
reproduksi dasar lebih besar dari satu. Pada artikel ini juga dibahas kasus lain dengan pembatasan populasi yang
bepergian. Selanjutnya, untuk mengetahui pengaruh dari transportasi, dilakukan analisis perubahan laju penularan
melalui transportasi. Pada bagian akhir dilakukan simulasi numerik untuk mengilustrasikan hasil analisis yang diperoleh.

Background: The importance of the media in the coverage of Ebola virus disease (EVD) in Nigeria and its implications (negative or positive) amongst the populace cannot be overemphasized. This study was conducted to assess the role of media in the Ebola reportage and its implication in creating awareness and stopping the spread amongst the populace. Methods: The nature and extent of media coverage about Ebola in four major national newspapers were examined. The four major national newspapers were The Sun, The Vanguard, The Nation and The Punch newspapers. The period of study ranged from 20 July (when the index case came to Nigeria) to 20 October 2014. Analysis of the newspaper article was according to content. Results: A total of 1625 articles were published between July 2014 to October 2014 and these were divided into news (1127; 69.4%), features (267; 16.4%), opinion (76; 4.7%), editorials (149; 9.2%) and interviews (6; 0.4%). The most common topic was Ebola cases in Nigeria (17.5%) followed by discrimination due to Ebola (10.8%) and least of all the use of salt and or Kola for the cure of Ebola (5.2%). Conclusion: Although the World Health Organization (WHO) declared Nigeria Ebola free on the 20th October 2014, continual reportage of the Ebola disease for effective awareness, prevention and control of the virus is recommended.

This article provides the first comprehensive overview of the severity and impact of the Spanish flu in Belgium (1918–1919) and thereby makes a long overdue connection with the extensive international literature on pandemics in general and Spanish flu in particular. Leveraging ego documents (diaries), municipal-level excess mortality, and individual-level cause-of-death registers, we present new evidence on the chronology and spatial distribution of Spanish flu mortality in Belgium in 1918 and 1919 as well as social and demographic characteristics of the Spanish flu deaths in the city of Antwerp and discuss the government measures taken in the difficult context of the German occupation. In Belgium, our analysis shows that the chronology and geography of the Spanish flu cannot be seen in isolation from the vagaries of the First World War, in terms of soldiers and evacuees both acting as likely vectors of influenza transmission as well as inflating crude death rates at the municipal l...

Epidemic outbreaks threaten jurisdictions beyond domestic boundaries and affect diverse societal interests. How to properly handle them therefore becomes an issue of interest for all stakeholders and individuals. The two current approaches to handling them are called risk analysis and risk governance. Risk analysis is the classical model while risk governance is only emerging. What might risk governance contribute to risk analysis? The recent Ebola Virus Disease (EVD) outbreak presents an opportunity for answering this question. The central argument is that because the EVD outbreak affects jurisdictions beyond domestic boundaries and diverse societal interests, it should be handled through risk governance. An empirical investigation of the adaptive and integrative model of Klinke and Renn (2012) shows that risk governance might contribute new inputs into risk analysis in EVD handling. At the moment, the prevailing EVD handling approach substantially shows elements of risk analysis b...

The study presents a cross-sectional analysis via a web-based survey to assess the awareness and experiences of Vietnamese health professionals and community workers on climate and epidemic changes and their impacts on society. Health professionals, medical students, and community workers were included in the survey. Factor analysis was used to explore the construct validity of measures, and Multivariable Tobit regression models were used to examine associated factors with awareness about climate and epidemic changes and impacts on society. Results showed that the awareness of participants about climate and epidemic changes was moderately-low, while the awareness about the impacts on society were moderately high. Community workers show higher awareness of climate and epidemic changes compared to health professionals. People working in provincial levels had a lower score (Coef. =-0.64, 95%CI = − 1.19 to − 0.09) than those working in central level. Compared to Northern participants, those living in Central and Southern regions have lower awareness scores regarding "Changes in weather and epidemics" and "Changes in the environment" compared to Northern people. The higher awareness about climate and epidemic changes were found to be correlated with the higher awareness of "Impacts on health, society and economy" and "Impact on individuals and families". Community workers scored lower in "Impact on individuals and families" compared to health professionals (Coef.-0.75; 95%CI = − 1.34 to − 0.16). This study emphasized the vulnerabilities of Vietnamese communities to epidemics and climate change. It suggests the involvements of intersectoral taskforces in the preparedness and responses to climate change and epidemics.

Este artículo propone un esquema analítico para comprender la naturaleza compleja de los problemas y cuestiones de política a partir de los siguientes tres argumentos. Primero, que la complejidad está relacionada con el proceso de construcción social que determina qué cuestiones se asumen como problemas públicos y, la forma en que se definen como tales. Segundo, la complejidad tiene que ver también con las «causas materiales» de los propios problemas que involucran múltiples variables y relaciones. Tercero, la complejidad proviene, asimismo de que los problemas sociales cada vez más, ponen en entredicho, los referentes tradicionales de organización y acción de los gobiernos; a saber, los referentes de carácter funcional, espacial, y temporal los cuales, determinan la forma en que abordan los problemas y conciben sus soluciones. De este tercer argumento, nos ocupamos en el presente artículo, analizando el caso de la obesidad que, en el campo de la salud, es un problema social representativo de dicha complejidad./This article proposes an analytical framework to understand the complex nature of policy issues and problems, based on the following arguments. First, that complexity is related to the process of social construction that determines which issues are assumed as public problems and the way in which they are defined as such. Second, complexity also has to do with the «material causes» of the problems themselves that involve multiple variables and relationships. Third, the complexity also comes from the fact that social problems increasingly call into question the traditional referents of government organization and action; namely, the referents of a functional, spatial, and temporal nature which determine the way in which they approach problems and conceive their solutions. We deal with this third argument in this article, analyzing the case of obesity which, in the field of health, is a social problem representative of this complexity.

Le 27 novembre 2020, conférence en ligne dans le cadre du colloque "Du postmodernisme au posthumain", organisé par Carlos Tello.
Premier grand philosophe à avoir consacré un ouvrage au cinéma, Stanley Cavell pourrait aussi être considéré comme un précurseur du posthumanisme pour avoir analysé, dès son chef-d’œuvre philosophique Les Voix de la raison, l’émotion d’horreur comme révélatrice de
« ma perception de la précarité de l’identité humaine, du risque qu’elle encourt d’être perdue, ou violée (invaded), [de] mon sentiment qu’il se peut que nous soyons déjà, ou qu’il se peut que nous devenions, quelque chose d’autre que ce que nous sommes, ou croyons être . »
En tâchant de mettre en évidence que les films d’horreur épidémique et la philosophie peuvent nous aider à mieux penser pour mieux vivre au temps du coronavirus, l’exposé viserait à justifier la pertinence de la citation de Cavell pour rendre compte de notre expérience du cinéma d’horreur postapocalyptique dans sa variante épidémique.

As, during the last days of February 2020, Italy went into lockdown and the numbers of infected rose, with hospitals sorely overburdened, intensive care units facing the ethical tragedies that emergency medicine involves and army trucks transported the coffins of Bergamo to who knows where, several of us had the feel- ing that people were not understanding what was „really‟ going on. On the one hand they were seriously worried about the ineffective treat- ments that were all doctors were able to offer, notwithstanding a level of absolute personal dedication that often pushed them to sacrifice their own lives. On the other they were unsettled by the discordant voices of the many new figures who invaded the media in their capacities as „experts‟ on public health or on scientific and medical matters of which most know nothing. Above all they were disconcerted by the inadequate media response to the problematic nature of the crisis no less than to its multiple implications and ramifications. So it was that the idea of creat- ing a multimedia course on “The Epistemology of the Pandemic” emerged and, between 24th march and 11th April, became a reality. What we now propose is a synthesis which renders the spirit, that generated and sustained that experience and determined its didactic and epistemic design.

Outbreaks of highly contagious animal diseases severely affect the global economy, seriously disrupting domestic economies and the international trade of livestock and animal commodities. Italy has a series of contingency plans for the management of outbreaks of all major animal diseases. Disease control measures are mainly based on a traditional approach and eradication policies range from culling and stamping-out to movement restrictions of animals and commodities. Given the marked terrain differences in Italy, the uneven distribution of farms and animal population, the presence of potential disease hotspots constituted by high-density clusters of farms and animals, etc., maps have always been a common working tool for the Italian veterinary services to identify location of premises, define the perimeter of the infected and control zones, etc. The Italian Ministry of Health has requested an integrated system for the management of veterinary emergencies. One of the main features of...

Epidemic outbreaks threaten jurisdictions beyond domestic boundaries and affect diverse societal interests. How to properly handle them therefore becomes an issue of interest for all stakeholders and individuals. To address this issue, a case study of the current EVD outbreak may be instructive. How can we explain the risk handling process in the Ebola Virus Disease (EVD) outbreak? The central argument is that if the EVD outbreak affects jurisdictions beyond domestic boundaries and diverse societal interests, its handling should be integrative. To be integrative, the handling should engage both technical and societal inputs, and coordinate stakeholders at domestic and global levels. Hence, integrative risk handling requires an interdisciplinary method and a global governance approach. Meanwhile, the classical model of risk analysis appears to be less integrative while the emerging risk governance model, in an attempt to improve the classical model, seems to be substantially integrative. With the help of secondary data and its qualitative analysis, focused literature review, non-participant observation, and empirical investigation of the risk analysis model alongside the adaptive and integrative risk governance model of Klinke and Renn (2012), the result shows that the current risk handling approaches perform differently at domestic and global scales. At the domestic level, the prevailing approach substantially shows elements of risk analysis but lacks the basic elements of risk governance. At the global level, the prevailing approach fully incorporates the elements of risk analysis but not fully those of risk governance. Applying the Klinke & Renn model to upgrade risk analysis may address the latter’s deficiencies and make risk handling outcomes more suitable for stakeholders and individuals. Although the analysis excludes the adaptive elements of the model, it shows the model could make risk analysis more integrative and incorporate risk handling variables more accurately. The conclusion is that the handling of epidemics should be more integrative within a comprehensive global governance framework.

Epidemic diseases can be extremely dangerous with its hazarding influences. They may have negative effects on economies, businesses, environment, humans, and workforce. In this paper, some of the factors that are interrelated with COVID-19 pandemic have been examined using data mining methodologies and approaches. As a result of the analysis some rules and insights have been discovered and performances of the data mining algorithms have been evaluated. According to the analysis results, JRip algorithmic technique had the most correct classification rate and the lowest root mean squared error (RMSE). Considering classification rate and RMSE measure, JRip can be considered as an effective method in understanding factors that are related with corona virus caused deaths.

To determine first-year student pharmacists' views on the opioid epidemic. Methods First-year pharmacy students were asked to complete an online survey to assess their views and opinions on the current opioid crisis using Likert-scale type questions. Results Forty-four pharmacy students were surveyed, and all participants completed survey questions, 100% response rate. Majority of participants were female (N=34, 77.3%), with more than half of participants falling in the age range of 18-24 (N=25, 56.8%). Geographically, most of the participants home residences are in other states out of the DC, Maryland, Virginia (N=25, 56.9%). In addition, majority of participants worked before starting pharmacy school (N=42, 95.5%) and a majority had a pharmacy and healthrelated occupations before pharmacy school (N=36; 81.9%). Most study participants reported an annual income of less than $10,000 (N=17, 38.6%) and obtained a bachelor's degree (N=26, 59.1%). Majority of participants strongly agree that the opioid epidemic is becoming a severe crisis for society (N=42; 95.5%) and that opioid should be readily available when it is medically necessary to people (N=27; 61.4%). When asked if they know anyone personally who suffers from the opioid crisis, over three-quarter (N=34; 77.3%) said no. However, over two-third (N=29; 65.9%) of participants said that they have taken opioids in the past themselves to relieve pain. Although, almost all of them strongly agree that prescription opioids are addictive (N=42; 95.5.%); about eighty percent (N=35; 79.5%) agree that taking opioids is an effective way to alleviate severe pain. Conclusion Our results indicate that pharmacy students perceive the opioid epidemic as a crisis and despite their views that opioids are addictive and knowing someone who suffers from opioid use disorder, they believe opioids are a clinically effective way to alleviate pain.

In the COVID-19 pandemic the (nuclear) family, and the private household that is assumed to contain it, receives an enormous revaluation across different welfare regimes. At the same time the notion of a nationally formed welfare state that protects "its" vulnerable national population is re-enacted as a central care entity. From an intersectional and transnational perspective, the article coins the concepts of "care familialism" and "care nationalism" to analyse both the conditions of inequality and the exclusionary effects of these intertwined formations of "home" in the wake of the pandemic state crisis management in Germany. The article presents central dimensions of German care familialism and care nationalism to demonstrate how – and which – hierarchies of care/carelessness are systematically established and deepened within the current state of pandemic policies – from the neglect of those who cannot retreat to a "safe home" to...

The COVID 19 pandemic is a tectonic shock for almost all countries and societies on earth. The economic and socio-political consequences are not yet foreseeable, nor are the longterm psychological effects at the individual level. Within their societies, religious actors take on functions of contingency management and often also of social welfare. At the same time, they are often transnationally networked. Their structural, cultural and institutional characteristics vary among societies, which is why modernisation developments are not easily transferable. Nevertheless, characteristics can be identified that favour a constructive approach to pandemic management. The following study explores this question by examining actors and communities whose activities and statements had a de-escalating or escalating effect. What recommendations for politics and religious actors can be derived from the analysis? I would like to sincerely thank the authors, Dr Alexander Yendell (Leipzig University), Prof Dr Oliver Hidalgo (University of Münster) and Carolin Hillenbrand (Cluster of Excellence Religion and Politics at the University of Münster), for this excellent collaboration and their commitment to this research project. My thanks also go to my colleagues in the Research Programme "Culture and Foreign Policy", Sarah Widmaier and Anja Schön, who supported the project by providing conceptual and editorial guidance. Religious actors have strong orientation functions within societies and can thus make an important contribution to crisis management and peacekeeping. This study is the fourth to be published by the ifa research programme on the topic of the peace potential of religions. The three previous studies analysed the peace potential of Abrahamic religions, Asian religious actors and free churches in Latin America and the USA. As part of ifa's Research Programme "Culture and Foreign Policy", experts examine current issues in foreign cultural and educational policy and formulate recommendations for action for foreign cultural policy actors. International cultural relations must be systematically studied in order to develop viable future strategies for transnational cultural exchange.

The COVID-19 pandemic is firing up our imagination about how to account for the past epidemics in archaeological contexts. This essay is a reflection on some of the historical cases of epidemic outbreaks in Yorùbá history, and what we can learn from social memory, oral traditions, and recent eyewitness accounts on how microbial attacks were managed in ancestral Yorùbá urban centers. Malignant microbes usually thrive in the kind of settlement configurations-dense towns and cities-that supported the preferred sociopo-litical organization among the Yorùbá for over a millennium. Sacred groves were incorporated into the ancestral Yorùbá urban planning. They served many roles, including as isolation centers for managing epidemic outbreaks. Such isolation sites are difficult to identify in archaeological contexts without the aid of historical sources. However, contemplating how these special spaces were embedded in the past Yorùbá cultural lives could broaden our imagination of social regeneration processes in times of crisis (e.g., infectious disease). Résumé La pandémie COVID-19 stimule notre imagination sur la façon de rendre compte des épidémies passées dans des contextes archéologiques. Cet essai est une réflexion sur certains des cas historiques d'épidémies dans l'histoire de Yorùbá et sur ce que nous pouvons apprendre de la mémoire sociale, des traditions orales et des témoignages récents sur la manière dont les attaques microbiennes ont été gérées dans les centres urbains ancestraux de Yorùbá. Les microbes malins se développent généralement dans le type de configurations de peuplement-des villes denses-qui ont soutenu l'organisation sociopolitique préférée des Yorùbá pendant plus d'un millénaire. Les bois sacrés ont été intégrés dans l'urbanisme ancestral Yorùbá. Ils ont joué de nombreux rôles, notamment en tant que centres d'isolement pour gérer les flambées épidémiques. Ces sites d'isolement sont difficiles à identifier dans des contextes archéologiques sans l'aide de sources historiques. Cependant, envisager la façon dont ces espaces spéciaux ont été intégrés dans la vie culturelle passée des Yorùbá pourrait élargir notre imagination sur les processus de régénération sociale en temps de crise (par exemple, les maladies infectieuses).

Over the last three to four decades, it has been observed that the average total number of hours of sleep obtained per night by normal individuals have decreased. Concomitantly, global figures indicate that insufficient sleep is associated with serious adverse health and social outcomes. Moreover , insufficient sleep has been linked to seven of the fifteen leading causes of death. Additionally, current evidence suggests that sleep plays a significant role in determining cognitive performance and workplace productivity. There is a great need for a systematic analysis of the economic impact of insufficient sleep, particularly given current evidence that this phenomenon, as well as the poor sleep hygiene practices which produce it, is increasing worldwide. This paper takes the view that health authorities around the world need to raise the general awareness of benefits of sleep. There is considerable scope for research into both the public health impact as well as the macroeconomic consequences of insufficient sleep syndrome (ISS). Additionally, various models which estimate the undiagnosed burden of ISS on the GDP (gross domestic product) are needed to prioritize health issues and to highlight the national policies that are necessary to combat this medical problem. Sleep insufficiency has been declared to be a 'public health epidemic'; therefore, we propose ISS as a potential noncommunicable disease. This review elaborates on this topic further, exploring the causes and consequences of insufficient sleep, and thus providing a perspective on the policies that are needed as well as the research that will be required to support and justify these policies.

During the COVID-19 crisis, the Indian state assigned an outstanding role in the containment of the pandemic to ASHAs, "voluntary" community healthcare workers. Local women were recruited as "honorary" workers receiving only a small honorarium or piece rate "incentives." The feminisation, casualisation, and informalisation of work in state-funded social welfare schemes are examples of care extractivism. ASHAs had to spearhead awareness-raising, identify infections, and organise vaccinations in rural areas, often without proper protective equipment and always without fair payment. Despite such care extractivism, these caregivers were celebrated by the middle classes as frontline fighters of the nation amidst a masculinist discourse of "war," "warriors," "heroes," and "sacrifice." Yet, at the height of the crisis in 2020 when thousands of ASHAs contracted COVID-19, they went on strike. Having gained confidence in ea...

Every historical period has its characteristic epidemic. In the Middle Ages, up to one-third of the European population died of the plague epidemic called the Black Death (1346 to 1353). Later, cholera, Spanish flu, and AIDS terrified the population. Every epidemic triggered social changes and functioned as a catalyst for developments, which were already taking place. In addition to the often-devastating impact on life and health, epidemics and pandemics hold potential for innovations. The Black Death certainly led to a rising standard of living and is even said to have accelerated the development of printing. In the 19th century, cholera was considered to be a motor of sanitary reforms, such as central water supply and sewerage. The current Sars-CoV-2 pandemic clearly shows that epidemics are still part of human history and not just, as has long been believed, limited to the Global South.

The article analyzes the course of the unprecedented economic crisis in the last century caused by the outbreak of the COVID-19 pandemic around the world. The COVID-19 pandemic affects all spheres of economic life, causing a huge collapse in international trade, a collapse in industrial production, and a reduction in the infl ow of services and foreign investments. The aim of the article is to analyze the causes and the counteraction of the European Union's breakdown in international trade turnover in 2020. The analysis uses a qualitative and quantitative method consisting in a review of international trade fi gures, statistics from Eurostat, World Trade Organization, IMF, and World Bank. The analysis examines the depth of the collapse of international trade, the most important entities in trade, including the European Union. The results of the economic analysis allow understanding the activities of the European Union institutions in the fi eld of counteracting the negative effects of the collapse of international trade in the world and in the European Union.

Currently, the whole world is fighting a very dangerous and infectious disease caused by the novel coronavirus, called COVID-19. The COVID-19 is rapidly spreading around the world due to its high infection rate. Therefore, early discovery of COVID-19 is crucial to better treat the infected person as well as to slow down the spread of this virus. However, the current solution for detecting COVID-19 cases including the PCR test, CT images, epidemiologically history, and clinical symptoms suffer from high false positive. To overcome this problem, we have developed a novel transfer deep learning approach for detecting COVID-19 based on x-ray images. Our approach helps medical staff in determining if a patient is normal, has COVID-19, or other pneumonia. Our approach relies on pre-trained models including Inception-V3, Xception, and MobileNet to perform two tasks: i) binary classification to determine if a person infected with COVID-19 or not and ii) a multi-task classification problem to distinguish normal, COVID-19, and pneumonia cases. Our experimental results on a large dataset show that the F1-score is 100% in the first task and 97.66 in the second task.