Survey Design and Stated Preference Methods

Plug-in Hybrid Electric Vehicles (PHEVs) show potential to reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, increase fuel efficiency, and offer driving ranges that are not limited by battery capacity. However, these benefits will not be realized if consumers do not adopt this new technology. Several agent-based models have been developed to model potential market penetration of PHEVs, but gaps in the available data limit the usefulness of these models. To address this, we administered a survey to 1000 stated US residents, using Amazon Mechanical Turk, to better understand factors influencing the potential for PHEV market penetration. Our analysis of the survey results reveals quantitative patterns and correlations that extend the existing literature. For example, respondents who felt most strongly about reducing US transportation energy consumption and cutting greenhouse gas emissions had, respectively, 71 and 44 times greater odds of saying they would consider purchasing a compact PHEV than those who felt least strongly about these issues. However, even the most inclined to consider a compact PHEV were not generally willing to pay more than a few thousand US dollars extra for the sticker price. Consistent with prior research, we found that financial and battery-related concerns remain major obstacles to widespread PHEV market penetration. We discuss how our results help to inform agent-based models of PHEV market penetration, governmental policies, and manufacturer pricing and marketing strategies to promote consumer adoption of PHEVs.

Few integrated analysis models examine significant U.S. transportation greenhouse gas emission reductions within an integrated energy system. Our analysis, using a bottom-up MARKet ALocation (MARKAL) model, found that stringent systemwide CO 2 reduction targets will be required to achieve significant CO 2 reductions from the transportation sector. Mitigating transportation emission reductions can result in significant changes in personal vehicle technologies, increases in vehicle fuel efficiency, and decreases in overall transportation fuel use. We analyze policy-oriented mitigation strategies and suggest that mitigation policies should be informed by the transitional nature of technology adoptions and the interactions between the mitigation strategies, and the robustness of mitigation strategies to long-term reduction goals, input assumptions, and policy and social factors. More research is needed to help identify robust policies that will achieve the best outcome in the face of uncertainties.

The disutility of transfers in multimodal public transport goes beyond the additional walking and waiting times. Although the magnitude of this pure transfer penalty has been proven to be an essential element in the structural design of public transport lines, the scarce available research reveals a wide range of values. The aim of this paper is to develop and apply a framework to estimate the value perceived and assigned by commuters to this penalty. This framework includes all the other elements considered by users in the case of a trip involving (potential) transfers, in order to obtain the impact of each one. The framework is based on the discrete choices paradigm and applied to data collected in Madrid, Spain. The results show that the pure transfer penalty is comparable to a 15.2-17.7 equivalent increase in in-vehicle minutes; i.e. longer trips may be preferred to faster alternatives with transfers, even if the additional walking and waiting times are zero. As well as the pure transfer penalty, the model also captures the effects of habit, crowding, walking, waiting and in-vehicle times, information, and the additional effect of intermodality on transfers.

Introduction: There is a growing trend of using patient preference studies to help incorporate the patient perspective into clinical drug development, care management, and health-care decisionmaking. Collecting and interpreting patient preference data is integral to multi-stakeholder engagement, patient-centric drug development, and clinical care management. Operationally, challenges exist in understanding 'when' and 'how' to embark on patient preference studies. This review will provide a brief overview of stated-preference methods, discuss applications throughout the clinical drug development and care management, and highlight how preference studies serve as a powerful tool for quantifying patient experiences for better outcomes. Areas covered: We present case studies to complement the different applications of stated-preference methods in clinical drug development and care management. We discuss the applications of preference data to help inform evidence-based patient advocacy, clinical development strategy, operational feasibility, regulator benefit-risk assessments, health technology assessments, and clinical decision-making. Expert commentary: Patient preference studies can serve as a powerful tool to engage patients and their communities as well as quantify the patient voice across different stages of clinical drug development and care management to support patient-centric health-care decision-making. It is expected that the application of these strategies will quickly advance in the coming years.

The public transport system of Santiago de Chile presents several deficiencies in terms of accessibility, especially for people with reduced mobility. However, there is no official guideline or prioritization on how to value these improvements on accessibility, making them a costly expense. This paper values accessibility elements in the urban bus system of public transport in Santiago, Chile, through a stated preference experiment. The attributes included in this experiment are: audiovisual information at bus stops, elevation of stops, buses' access ramps, and time of travel. Based on the data collected from the survey, discrete choice models were estimated to obtain the preferences and valuations of individuals for the elements, with a focus on people with reduced mobility. The results show that individuals with reduced mobility value at least twice the accessibility elements than people without reduced mobility.

The thesis focuses on the valuation of cultural ecosystem services of innovative nature-based solutions in an urban context, specifically in Gzira, Malta. It aims to address environmental and social challenges such as the lack of green open spaces, limited walkability, and poor air and noise quality in the community, which impact the health and well-being of residents. The study includes a comprehensive literature review on ecosystem services, with a focus on cultural ecosystem services and their relationship with nature-based solutions. It also discusses the VARCITIES project and its implementation in Gzira, highlighting the innovative nature-based solutions as part of the project. The thesis further describes the theoretical framework and methodology for the case study design, including the Total Economic Value framework, non-market valuation methods, and the steps involved in the stated preference survey design method and choice modelling. The thesis incorporates the use of choice modelling and stated preference methods to effectively quantify and value the cultural ecosystem services provided by nature-based solutions in the VARCITIES project in Gzira, Malta. The study focuses on designing a stated preference survey with appropriate attributes and levels specific to the applied project, using the support.Ces package in R. The results and discussion section presents the findings, including the calculation of willingness to pay. The estimation of willingness to pay (WTP) values from citizens provides valuable insights into the valuation of cultural ecosystem services (CES) associated with nature-based solutions implemented in urban areas. WTP values represent the monetary equivalent of the non-market values provided by CES, which are the not material benefits that people derive from ecosystems. By using stated preference methods and analyzing WTP values, researchers can capture and quantify the non-market values associated with green spaces and cultural ecosystem services. The utilization of choice modeling and stated preference methods allows for the identification of preferences and values associated with different attributes of nature-based solutions, providing a deeper understanding of the cultural ecosystem services and their economic significance. The final results of the WTP analysis provide valuable information for decision-making processes, as they offer insights into the economic value of cultural ecosystem services and the importance of investing in nature-based solutions for sustainable development in urban context. This comprehensive approach ensures that the economic, social, and cultural importance of nature-based solutions is considered, leading to sustainable policies and practices that recognize the true worth of ecosystems in biocities.

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We perform a meta-analysis of the studies that evaluate the importance attributed by the consumers to the driving range of the Battery Electric Vehicles (BEVs). The paper updates and extends the paper by Dimitropoulos et al. (2013), including primary studies up to the year 2018. It tests whether the conclusions drawn by Dimitropoulos et al. (2013) still hold true given the many changes that occurred in the last years concerning BEVS' uptake in the market, growing consumers' direct and indirect experience with electric cars, vehicles' increased range, and growing diffusion of the charging infrastructure. We carried out two analyses: a) the estimation of the summary effect size of the driving range utility coefficient, and b) a metaregression of the willingness to pay for a 1-km increase in the BEVs' driving range. The main findings are that: a) the importance attributed to the BEV's range by the consumers has not decreased; b) there is a very large dispersion of the estimates around the mean values, implying that there is a large heterogeneity due to differences in respondents' needs, vehicle segments and modelling techniques. The meta-regression allowed us to further explore and test statistically these conclusions.

We perform a meta-analysis of the studies that evaluate the importance attributed by the consumers to the driving range of the Battery Electric Vehicles (BEVs). The paper updates and extends the paper by Dimitropoulos et al. (2013), including primary studies up to the year 2018. It tests whether the conclusions drawn by Dimitropoulos et al. (2013) still hold true given the many changes that occurred in the last years concerning BEVS' uptake in the market, growing consumers' direct and indirect experience with electric cars, vehicles' increased range, and growing diffusion of the charging infrastructure. We carried out two analyses: a) the estimation of the summary effect size of the driving range utility coefficient, and b) a metaregression of the willingness to pay for a 1-km increase in the BEVs' driving range. The main findings are that: a) the importance attributed to the BEV's range by the consumers has not decreased; b) there is a very large dispersion of the estimates around the mean values, implying that there is a large heterogeneity due to differences in respondents' needs, vehicle segments and modelling techniques. The meta-regression allowed us to further explore and test statistically these conclusions.

Using the traveler response function to operational feature of transport means, this paper aims to propose a model of departure time decision. The disutility functions relating to the earliness of departure time and lateness of arrival are established here to understand traveler behavior. The model is then applied to identify the morning commute behavior of student in a case study. In particular, it is applied for students using public transports. The numerical result shows that the model well predicts the departure time decision related to travel mode. By 7:15 a.m. as the designated start time at school, an average of 6:14 a.m. with a standard deviation of 10.2 minutes was recognized as the departure time choice for student using public transports.

This paper presents the results of a stated-choice survey design in which reduced information is available about the values of the parameters. The main objective of the survey is to develop discrete choice models to analyze the carrier selection process by shippers. The only information available is the expected sign of the parameter in the utility function. Therefore, the use of a Bayesian approach is necessary in analyzing the efficiency of potential survey designs. The measure of efficiency adopted is the 95th percentile value of the D-error, the determinant of the asymptotic variance–covariance matrix, obtained via Monte Carlo simulation. This measure would maximize the expected gain of information with the experiment. In the survey, the respondents (shippers) will be asked to provide the main carrier's attributes used in the selection process. On the basis of the answers, the survey will be customized to each respondent (situation). In this paper, only the results of the de...

With the passage of time, celluloid film degrades and valuable film history is lost, resulting in loss of cultural history which contributes to the shared sense of community, identify, and place at a local and national level. Despite the growth in digitised services for accessing cultural resources, to date no economic valuation has been performed on digital local history resources which are accessible online. Despite the recent emergence of online portals for digital cultural services in many countries (such as virtual tours of art galleries and digitisation of cultural archives) a shift which has accelerated in response to the Covid-19 epidemic, there remains a majorliterature gap around the value of digital culture. Failure to account for the value of digital archives risks sub-optimal allocation of resources to accessing and preserving these aspects of local cultural history. In response, we performed the first contingent valuation study to estimate willingness to pay for a free online film archive portal containing historical film footage for localities throughout the United Kingdom. Users were willing to pay an average hypothetical subscription for digital archive film services of £38.52/annum. Non-users in the general population were asked their willingness to pay a hypothetical annual donation to maintain free public access (£4.68/annum on average). The results suggest that positive social value is gained from online access to digital archive film, and from knowing that the cultural heritage continues to be digitally accessible by the public for current and future generations. We outline how this evidence aligns with a theoretical framework of use and non-use value for digital goods and services extending beyond those who currently use the portal, to those introduced to it, and those in the general public who have never directly experienced the online archive service. We also report what we believe is the first application of Subjective Wellbeing analysis to engagement with a digital cultural service. The advantage of applying methods from economics to value cultural activities in monetary terms is that it makes emerging modes of digital cultural goods and services commensurable with other costs and benefits as applied to cultural policy and investment decisions, putting it on a level footing with physical cultural assets.

Contingent valuation is a common methodology for eliciting preferences for non-market goods under hypothetical scenarios. Bias reduction strategies have been developed when evaluating low-cost realistic policy changes, including cheap-talk scripts, that alert respondents to tendencies to overstate values, and oath scripts, whereby respondents promise to answer valuation questions truthfully. This paper is the first large-scale experimental comparison of cheap-talk and oath commitments, amongst randomly-assigned respondents, in a fieldsetting using hypothetical voluntary donations. The data come from three general population surveys eliciting willingness to pay (WTP) for cultural institutions in England. We find limited and case-specific evidence regarding the effectiveness of cheap-talk and oath scripts in affecting stated values, which we attribute to realism and low cost of the proposals, which arguably diminishes hypothetical bias and produces realistic WTP values. We find evidence of the depressing effect of entreaty script on WTP or probability of paying in principle in only one of three case studies. Future research should replicate this experimental design with larger sample sizes and on non-voluntary payment mechanisms. Given the inconsistent findings across three large-scale experimental field studies, our recommendation is to include both cheap-talk and oath scripts where possible, and only cheap-talk where survey length is constrained.

Libraries in England have an important role as providers of a range of services, from book-lending and computer access to children's activities, training courses and meeting spaces. Understanding the value of libraries is a complex issue due to the wide-ranging services that libraries provide and their inherently non-market nature. This study estimates the value of engagement in library services through a large contingent valuation study of around 2000 library users and non-users. We find that average willingness to pay (WTP) to maintain current library services (above the core book-lending and computer/Internet services) among library users in England is £19.51/annum and £10.31/annum for non-users. This provides a combined annual WTP for these local library services of £723.4 million. This is the first study to disaggregate WTP values by the services that respondents report having used. Those using health services, attending lectures and using library space for socialising are willing to pay more on average to maintain all services at their local library. Library use is also positively associated with subjective well-being, suggesting that libraries have an important role in users' quality of life. This provides supporting evidence that the values for public libraries can be interpreted as reflecting primary benefits stemming from welfare changes associated with library engagement.

Abstract: Various measures have been taken to reduce environmental loads. One of the examples is the development of low emission vehicles (LEV), which has become more and more competitive at the market since the Japanese government implemented the LEV authorization system in 2000. On the other hand, people’s mobility in local cities highly depends on car traffic, compared with large cities. As a result, it seems difficult to reduce car ownership in these local cities. Considering that passenger cars have been producing a large percentage of CO2, this paper attempts to examine the effects of car-related tax policies on the ownership of low emission passenger cars (LEPC) based on a stated preference survey. Survey results show that under mixed tax policies, about 60 % of respondents would like to own the LEPC. Empirical analysis based on choice model suggests that control of auto tax is most effective to increase the LEPC ownership.

Public transit agencies are constantly looking for ways to increase their ridership. While many studies have attempted to identify the factors affecting new customer attraction, the issue of transit user loyalty has been far less researched. In addition to being a good indicator of a transit agency's performance, customer loyalty provides several added benefits. Loyal customers are more likely to use the transit agency's services and recommend them to potential new users. Furthermore, attracting users usually involves additional customer acquisition costs (e.g. marketing) not required in order to retain existing loyal users. This study used data provided by a mixed Stated Preference/Revealed Preference survey to identify some of the factors that affect customer loyalty in the context of public transit. Factors examined include service attributes, trip characteristics, as well as socioeconomic and psychological attributes of the individual. The findings suggest that service quality attributes play a critical role in transit user loyalty, while initiatives such as the provision of real-time information panels or making park and ride facilities available have a less determinant effect on the customers' mode shifting decisions, irrespective of their emotional response to public transit.

While a number of hypothetical bias mitigation methods have been proposed, the problem remains as the literature continues to debate the effectiveness and practicality of the mitigation methods (Loomis, 2011). We propose an easy to implement methods to mitigate hypothetical bias in choice experiments. The method involve asking respondents to recall the Ten Commandments prior to willingness to pay elicitation. Our result shows that the proposed method exhibit sign of hypothetical bias mitigation.

This study employed a Stated Preference Survey to examine factors that influence tourists' decisions regarding whether or not to evacuate when a hurricane strikes. Data were gathered in June-July 2009, during the hurricane season. A total of 465 tourists in Florida participated in the study. The examination of the results found that evacuation decisions were influenced by the severity of hurricanes, the location of the destination, and individual characteristics of tourists. The study also found that Stated Preference Surveys can be an effective technique to examine tourists' risk behavior while in the destination. Finally, application of the findings is presented.

This paper aims to evaluate the influence of policies, attitudes and perceptions when incentivizing alternative fuel vehicles. The impact of possible policies such as gasoline taxes increases, purchase price subsidies, tax exemptions, and increases in fuel recharging station availability for alternative fuelled vehicles is evaluated using hybrid choice models. The models also allow assessing the sensitivity of latent variables (i.e., attitudes and perceptions) in the car purchase behaviour. The models are estimated using data from a stated choice survey collected in five Colombian cities. The latent variables are obtained from the rating of statements related to the transport system, environmental concern, vehicle preferences, and technology. The modelling approach includes regression between latent variables. Results show that environmental concern and the support for green transport policies have a positive influence on the intention to purchase alternative fuel vehicles. Meanwhile, people who reveal to be car-dependent prefer to buy standard fuelled vehicles. The analysis among cities shows similar trends in individual behaviour, although there are differences in attribute sensitivities. The policy scenario analysis revealed high sensitivity to capital cost and the need for extensive investments in refuelling stations for alternative fuel vehicles to become attractive. Nevertheless, all policies should not only be directed at infrastructure and vehicles but also be focused on user awareness and acceptance of the alternative fuel vehicles. The analysis suggests that in an environmentally conscious market, people prefer alternative fuels. However, if the transport policies support private transport, the market shares of alternative fuel vehicles will decrease.

Public transit agencies are constantly looking for ways to increase their ridership. While many studies have attempted to identify the factors affecting new customer attraction, the issue of transit user loyalty has been far less researched. In addition to being a good indicator of a transit agency's performance, customer loyalty provides several added benefits. Loyal customers are more likely to use the transit agency's services and recommend them to potential new users. Furthermore, attracting users usually involves additional customer acquisition costs (e.g. marketing) not required in order to retain existing loyal users. This study used data provided by a mixed Stated Preference/Revealed Preference survey to identify some of the factors that affect customer loyalty in the context of public transit. Factors examined include service attributes, trip characteristics, as well as socioeconomic and psychological attributes of the individual. The findings suggest that service quality attributes play a critical role in transit user loyalty, while initiatives such as the provision of real-time information panels or making park and ride facilities available have a less determinant effect on the customers' mode shifting decisions, irrespective of their emotional response to public transit.

The disutility of transfers in multimodal public transport goes beyond the additional walking and waiting times. Although the magnitude of this pure transfer penalty has been proven to be an essential element in the structural design of public transport lines, the scarce available research reveals a wide range of values. The aim of this paper is to develop and apply a framework to estimate the value perceived and assigned by commuters to this penalty. This framework includes all the other elements considered by users in the case of a trip involving (potential) transfers, in order to obtain the impact of each one. The framework is based on the discrete choices paradigm and applied to data collected in Madrid, Spain. The results show that the pure transfer penalty is comparable to a 15.2-17.7 equivalent increase in in-vehicle minutes; i.e. longer trips may be preferred to faster alternatives with transfers, even if the additional walking and waiting times are zero. As well as the pure transfer penalty, the model also captures the effects of habit, crowding, walking, waiting and in-vehicle times, information, and the additional effect of intermodality on transfers.

This dissertation is a pioneering study that integrates the concept of social presence to choice experiment method by enhancing the level of social presence while presenting attributes information to participants. I employed a virtual world platform and designed two experiments that are differentiated in terms of the level of social presence while describing attributes of a choice experiment study to participants. The impact of this integration was explored using four metrics. First, the impact on marginal utility (i.e. importance) of attributes was examined. The results showed no significant difference between the two conditions. Second, the impact on error variance and goodness of fit were tested. I found a minor improvement for the high social presence condition, which was not statistically significant. Third, the impact of social presence on self-reported measures was examined. The two sub-samples were not significantly different in terms of self-reported measures. However, the whole sample reported high level of attribute clarity, involvement and motivation. Therefore, I conducted an exploratory analysis and found a significant correlation between social presence and attribute clarity. This finding implied that a relationship existed and the original finding indicating no significant difference of self-reported measures between the two treatments (low and high social presence) might be due to design issues. Therefore, new regression analysis was conducted to test the relationship between social presence and self-reported measures. Significant relationship between social presence and outcomes such as attribute clarity, motivation, involvement, and effectiveness of movie in task performance and decisionv Acknowledgement I am very grateful for the many gifts and blessings given to me that have led to this great achievement.

Many cities with metro systems are experiencing overcapacity problems on some or many lines. Beijing is one such city whose metro also services a high proportion of short-distance trips. The proportion of short-distance travel-less than 5 km (3.1 mi)-carried out on foot or on bicycle varies greatly across cities, depending on alternative travel modes and local environmental conditions. In this study, users of a multi modal transportation corridor that included metro (n 5 400) were interviewed about their travel mode preferences depending on distance within the short-distance travel category. Users were also asked to state their preferences for mode, depending on distance and a progressive rise in metro ticket fare. Finally, users were asked to state their mode preferences for trips that extended to five metro stations if a public bicycle system with a separate lane were made available. Modal choice was highly sensitive to variable short-distance trips. A progressive shift to bus use occurred as the metro fare price increased, with little change in the walking rate or in the use of motorized modes. When the original low metro fare price was maintained, the availability of a public bicycle system led to a sevenfold increase in bicycle use, with significant drops in bus share, and to a lesser extent, metro share. Responses to the stated preference survey indicated that fares and a public bicycle program might be effective to manage the use of metro for short-distance trips.

This document is the author deposited version. You are advised to consult the publisher's version if you wish to cite from it. Published version EADSON, William, HARRIS, Catherine, GORE, Anthony and DOBSON, Julian (2019). Space to thrive: A rapid evidence review of the benefits of parks and green spaces for people and communities. Other. National Lottery Heritage Fund and National Lottery Community Fund.

Alternative fuel vehicle technologies are needed to mitigate rising greenhouse gas emissions from transport. Social influence is integral to the diffusion of private vehicles which are highly visible and fulfil practical as well as social functions. This paper provides the first meta-analysis of empirical studies which measure the strength of social influence on consumer vehicle choice. A systematic literature review identified 21 studies that examined three types of social influence: interpersonal communication; neighbourhood effect; and conformity with social norms. A random effects metaanalysis found a significant and small to moderate effect of social influence on vehicle choices (r=0.241, p<.001). The overall effect size did not vary significantly between types of social influence nor between types of vehicle (conventional or alternative fuel). However, further analysis using meta-regression found that heterogeneity in social influence effect size across studies was explained by differences in countries' cultural receptiveness to normative influence. These findings have important implications for policy and modelling analysis of alternative fuel vehicle adoption, for which diffusion is both a socially and culturally-mediated process. Highlights (max 6, max 60 characters each)  Meta-analysis of 21 empirical studies  Robust evidence of social influence on vehicle choice  Three types of social influence have similar effects  Strength of social influence similar for conventional and alternative fuel vehicles  Cultural differences between countries

City logistics require an understanding of a number of issues that are seldom accounted for in current research. Policies may produce unsatisfactory results because behavioural and contextual aspects are not considered. Relevant data is crucial for forecasting the reactions of agents to policy changes. Despite recent methodological advances the development of appropriate survey instruments is still lacking to test policy acceptability. This paper expands and innovates the methodological literature by describing a stated ranking experiment to study freight agent interactive behaviour.

Stated preference surveys are usually carried out in one session, without any follow-up interview after respondents have had the opportunity to experience the public goods or policies they were asked to value. Consequently, a stated preference survey needs to be designed so as to provide respondents with all the relevant information, and to help them process this information so they can perform the valuation exercise properly. In this paper, we study experimentally an elicitation procedure in which respondents are provided with a sequence of different types of information (social cues and objective information) that allows them to sequentially revise their willingness-to-pay (WTP) values. Our experiment was carried out in large groups using an electronic voting system which allows us to construct social cues in real time. To analyse the data, we developed an anchoring-type structural model that allows us to estimate the direct effect (at the current round) and the indirect effect (on subsequent rounds) of information. Our results shed new light on the interacted effect of social cues and objective information: social cues have little or no direct effect on WTP values but they have a strong indirect effect on how respondents process scientific information. Social cues have the most noticeable effect on respondents who initially report a WTP below the group average but only after receiving additional objective information about the valuation task. We suggest that the construction and the provision of social cues should be added to the list of tools and controls for stated preference methods. "Faced with the choice between changing one's mind and proving that there is no need to do so, almost everyone gets busy on the proof." Galbraith, 1971.

The purpose of this paper is to describe and analyse a case of local freight stakeholder involvement to plan and design eco-efficient city logistics innovations in Como, a small city in Italy. While the importance of a well-functioning urban goods distribution system is widely acknowledged, city authorities have become increasingly aware of the need to minimise the negative impacts associated to the system. There are now countless examples of attempts to increase the eco-efficiency of urban freight deliveries; however, very few have made a notable impact. The success of such schemes often depends upon the response of a range of private sector freight stakeholders and their involvement during the planning process of these solutions is crucial.

Plug-in Hybrid Electric Vehicles (PHEVs) show potential to reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, increase fuel efficiency, and offer driving ranges that are not limited by battery capacity. However, these benefits will not be realized if consumers do not adopt this new technology. Several agent-based models have been developed to model potential market penetration of PHEVs, but gaps in the available data limit the usefulness of these models. To address this, we administered a survey to 1000 stated US residents, using Amazon Mechanical Turk, to better understand factors influencing the potential for PHEV market penetration. Our analysis of the survey results reveals quantitative patterns and correlations that extend the existing literature. For example, respondents who felt most strongly about reducing US transportation energy consumption and cutting greenhouse gas emissions had, respectively, 71 and 44 times greater odds of saying they would consider purchasing a compact PHEV than those who felt least strongly about these issues. However, even the most inclined to consider a compact PHEV were not generally willing to pay more than a few thousand US dollars extra for the sticker price. Consistent with prior research, we found that financial and battery-related concerns remain major obstacles to widespread PHEV market penetration. We discuss how our results help to inform agent-based models of PHEV market penetration, governmental policies, and manufacturer pricing and marketing strategies to promote consumer adoption of PHEVs.

Key Takeaways 1. Plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEVs) have an important role in the electrifi cation of passenger transportation. Long-range PHEVs not only are a transitional technology. They also are an enabling technology that can encourage more consumers to adopt electric vehicles. 2. The electric range of PHEVs has a signifi cant impact on electric vehicle miles traveled. PHEVs with electric range of at least 60km (37 miles (EPA Range)) have a similar ability to electrify travel as short-range battery electric vehicles (BEVs). 3. Assuming the goal of policymakers is to increase electric vehicle miles traveled, policy support should correspond directly to electric driving range of both PHEVs and BEVs. Short-range PHEVs should receive less policy support; long-range PHEVs and BEVs should receive more policy support. 4. Consumer research in several countries shows that mainstream consumers tend to be more attracted to PHEVs than to BEVs, however many consumers are unaware of ho...

Typically, discrete choice modelers develop ever-more advanced models and estimation methods. Compared to the impressive progress in model development and estimation, model-checking techniques have lagged behind. Often, choice modelers use only crude methods to assess how well an estimated model represents reality. Such methods usually stop at checking parameter signs, model elasticities, and ratios of model coefficients. In this paper, I greatly expand the discrete choice modelers&#39; assessment toolkit by introducing model checking procedures based on graphical displays of predictive simulations. Overall, my contributions are as follows. Methodologically, I introduce a general and &#39;semi-automatic&#39; algorithm for checking discrete choice models via predictive simulations. By combining new graphical displays with existing plots, I introduce methods for checking one&#39;s data against one&#39;s model in terms of the model&#39;s predicted distributions of P (Y), P (Y|X), and P...

We gratefully acknowledge financial support from the California Air Resources Board. The statements and conclusions presented are those of the authors and not necessarily those of the California Air Resources Board. The mention of commercial products, their source, or their use in connection with material reported herein is not to be construed as actual or implied endorsement of such products. The views expressed herein are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views of the National Bureau of Economic Research. At least one co-author has disclosed a financial relationship of potential relevance for this research. Further information is available online at http://www.nber.org/papers/w23856.ack NBER working papers are circulated for discussion and comment purposes. They have not been peer-reviewed or been subject to the review by the NBER Board of Directors that accompanies official NBER publications.

Understanding consumer behaviour is essential in designing policies that efficiently increase the uptake of clean technologies over the long-run. Expert opinion or qualitative market analyses have tended to be the sources of this information. However, greater scrutiny on governments increasingly demands the use of reliable and credible evidence to support policy decisions. While discrete choice research and modeling techniques have been applied to estimate consumer preferences for technologies, these methods often assume static preferences. This study builds on the application of discrete choice research and modeling to capture dynamics in consumer preferences. We estimate Canadians' preferences for new vehicle technologies under different market assumptions, using responses from two national surveys focused on hybrid gas-electric vehicles and hydrogen fuel cell vehicles. The results support the relevance of a range of vehicle attributes beyond the purchase price in shaping consumer preferences towards clean vehicle technologies. They also corroborate our hypothesis that the degree of market penetration of clean vehicle technologies is an influence on people's preferences ('the neighbor effect'). Finally, our results provide behavioural parameters for the energy-economy model CIMS, which we use here to show the importance of including consumer preference dynamics when setting policies to encourage the uptake of clean technologies.

With numerous ecosystem services of urban green spaces (UGS), contributing to sustainability and a better quality of life, UGS provision is perceived as a pivotal role in urban planning. However, concern arises as to what extent local governments have effectively provided good quality and adequate quantity of UGS for the public? Provisioning those UGS aspects has been given a low priority due to insufficient resources and the limited budget allocated by local governments. As such, maintenance and management effectiveness of UGS is detrimentally affected, resulting in disused, overused spaces and thus hot spots for crimes. Therefore, public monetary contribution via taxation is suggested as an alternative to ensuring the continuity and sustainability of UGS services. This review paper is vital to identify and showcase specific factors and mediators, influencing the willingness to pay (WTP) of residents/users for UGS services. Methodologically, after conducting Preferred Reporting Ite...

Limited fuel availability is a critical factor in the marketability of new fuels. A survey of us households is used to estimate the value offuel availability and its inf luence on choice of fuel for a fuel-flexible vehicle and the choice of a dedicated-fuel engine for a vehicle. The marginal value of availability decreases as the percent of stations offering a new fuel increases. For fuel-flexible vehicles the cost of lack of availability decreases from

A model for predicting choice of alternative fuel and among alternative vehicle technologies for light-duty motor vehicles is derived. The nested multinomial logit (NML) mathematical framework is used. Calibration of the model is based on information in the existing literature and deduction based on assuming a small number of key parameters, such as the value of time and discount rates. A spreadsheet model has been developed for calibration and preliminary testing of the model. xii 4 TAFV Vehicle Choice Model Structure Gasoline M85 Methanol FFV Fuel Choice Gasoline E85 Ethanol FFV Fuel Choice Gasoline FFV E85 FFV M85 Diesel Conventional/Liquid Vehicles Grid Gasoline Grid Electricity Grid Hybrid Fuel Choice Mild Hybrid (42v) Full Diesel (150-300v) Full Gasoline (150-300 v) Grid (300 v) Hybrid Vehicles

Using an open-ended contingent valuation survey, we analyze how (i) experience of a power outage due to one of the worst storms ever to hit Sweden and (ii) a cheap talk script affect respondents' WTP to avoid power outages. Experience significantly increases and a cheap talk script decreases the proportion of respondents with zero WTP. There is no significant effect in either case on stated WTP conditional on a positive WTP. The paper concludes with a discussion on the use of valuation studies shortly after the occurrence of an undesirable event.

We analyze the determinants of hybrid vehicle demand, focusing on gasoline prices and income tax incentives. We find that hybrid vehicle sales in 2006 would have been 37% lower had gasoline prices stayed at the 1999 levels, and the effect of the federal income tax credit program is estimated at 20% in 2006. Under the program, the cost of reducing gasoline consumption was $75 per barrel in government revenue and that of CO 2 emission reduction was $177 per ton. We show that the cost effectiveness of federal tax programs can be improved by a flat rebate scheme.

Presentazione: City logistics require an understanding of a number of issues that are seldom accounted for in current research. Policies may produce unsatisfactory results because behavioural and contextual aspects are not considered. Relevant data is crucial for forecasting the reactions of agents to policy changes. Despite recent methodological advances the development of appropriate survey instruments is still lacking to test policy acceptability. This paper expands and innovates the methodological literature by ...

This paper examines individuals motivations when purchasing vehicles, focusing upon what factors would encourage individuals to purchase hybrid electrical vehicle (HEV) or alternatively fuelled vehicle (AFV). AFVs in this paper refer to any cars run on alternatives to petrol and diesel. This research attempts to ascertain whether reductions in fuel costs, vehicle registration tax (VRT), or green house gas emissions would encourage individuals to purchase a HEV or an AFV instead of conventional vehicle. VRT is an Irish tax which is levied on the purchase of new vehicles. One of the motivations to conduct this research was to examine a new car tax and VRT scheme introduced by the Irish government in 2008. This new policy rewards the purchase of environmentally friendly cars, with lower VRT and car tax rates. To understand individuals' perceptions of these new taxes a survey was sent to recent customers of a car company in Ireland. The survey asked respondents about their recently purchased vehicle and how important they considered vehicle attributes such 2 as environmental performance, fuel cost, and safety, before making their car purchase.

The purpose of this study is to assess the utility value European citizens put on an innovative social program aimed at reducing homelessness. The Housing First (HF) model involves access to regular, scattered, independent and integrated housing in the community with the support of a multidisciplinary team. Currently, HF is not implemented by most European countries or funded by healthcare or social plans, but randomised controlled trials have stressed significant results for improved housing stability, recovery and healthcare services use. The broader implementation of HF across Europe would benefit from a better understanding of citizens' preferences and "willingness to pay" (WTP) for medico-social interventions like HF. We conducted a representative telephone survey between March and December 2017 in eight European countries (France, Ireland, Italy, the Netherlands, Poland, Portugal, Spain, and Sweden). Respondent's WTP for HF (N = 5631) was assessed through a contingent valuation method with a bidding algorithm. 42.3% of respondents were willing to pay more taxes to reduce homelessness through the HF model, and significant differences were found between countries (p < 0.001); 30.4% of respondents who did not value the HF model were protest zeros (either contested the payment vehicle-taxes-or the survey instrument). Respondents were willing to pay €28.2 ( ± 11) through annual taxation for the HF model. Respondents with higher educational attainment, who paid national taxes, reported positive attitudes about homelessness, or reported practices to reduce homelessness (donations, volunteering) were more likely to value the HF model, with some countries' differences also related to factors at the environmental level. These findings inform key stakeholders that European citizens are aware of the issue of homelessness in their countries and that scaling up the HF model across Europe is both feasible and likely to have public support.

Hybrid energy-economy models combine top-down and bottom-up approaches to explore behaviorally realistic responses to technology-focused policies. This research uses empirically derived discrete choice models to inform key behavioral parameters in CIMS, a hybrid model. The discrete choice models are estimated for vehicle and commuting decisions from a survey of 1150 Canadians. With the choice models integrated into CIMS, we simulate carbon taxes, gasoline vehicle disincentives, and single occupancy vehicle disincentives to show how different policy levers can motivate technological change. We also use the empirical basis for the choice models to portray uncertainty in technological change, costs, and emissions. D