A model for predicting choice of alternative fuel and among alternative vehicle technologies for ... more A model for predicting choice of alternative fuel and among alternative vehicle technologies for light-duty motor vehicles is derived. The nested multinomial logit (NML) mathematical framework is used. Calibration of the model is based on information in the existing literature and deduction based on assuming a small number of key parameters, such as the value of time and discount rates. A spreadsheet model has been developed for calibration and preliminary testing of the model. xii 4 TAFV Vehicle Choice Model Structure Gasoline M85 Methanol FFV Fuel Choice Gasoline E85 Ethanol FFV Fuel Choice Gasoline FFV E85 FFV M85 Diesel Conventional/Liquid Vehicles Grid Gasoline Grid Electricity Grid Hybrid Fuel Choice Mild Hybrid (42v) Full Diesel (150-300v) Full Gasoline (150-300 v) Grid (300 v) Hybrid Vehicles
• Develop, document and demonstrate a market-based model of the transition to hydrogen-powered hi... more • Develop, document and demonstrate a market-based model of the transition to hydrogen-powered highway transportation. • Create plausible scenarios of the transition to hydrogen-powered transportation vehicles. • Estimate the public and private benefits and costs of achieving the program goals set by the DOE Hydrogen, Fuel Cells and Infrastructure Technologies (HFCIT) Program and FreedomCAR. • Validate HyTrans as a tool for hydrogen transition modeling, technology assessment, policy analysis and program evaluation.
Transportation is vital to our economy and quality of life. But it is also the primary cause of U... more Transportation is vital to our economy and quality of life. But it is also the primary cause of U.S. oil dependency, and is responsible for more than a quarter of U.S. emissions of the greenhouse gases that are warming our planet. This report examines whether we can substantially reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from U.S. transportation. Report authors David Greene and Steve Plotkin provide three plausible scenarios of technology, policy, and public attitudes that result in cost-effective GHG reductions throughout the transportation sector. The High Mitigation Scenario shows we can reduce GHG emissions from transportation by as much as 65 percent below today's levels by 2050. In order to do so, we need action on three fronts: targeted public policies, technological progress, and commitment from Americans as consumers and citizens. • Technology. Substantial improvements in fuel economy and GHG emission performance are achievable today just through greater utilization of existing technology. By 2035, the fuel efficiency of the U.S. light-duty fleet can improve dramatically (50 mpg for conventional gasoline vehicles and 75 mpg for hybrid vehicles)-if new standards and/or market pressures push vehicle designers to do so. Using a fuel mix of electricity, biofuels, and hydrogen could significantly reduce the number of gasoline-powered passenger vehicles on the road by 2050. Technological advances in other vehicles including trucks, buses, and airplanes could improve the efficiency of those modes substantially. In fact, technologies exist today to reduce GHG emissions from freight trucks by 30 to 50 percent, with even greater reductions achievable over the next several decades. • Policy. To achieve deep reductions in GHG emissions and oil dependence, public policy must be multi-faceted, flexible, and adaptive. We need to level the playing field for, and spur advances in, low-carbon fuels, advanced vehicles, and lower-emitting transportation modes. Policies are needed to pull technology that exists today into the marketplace, support technological development for the future, and correct market failures that have solidified our dependence on fossil fuels. This will require a combination of performance standards, pricing mechanisms, and research, development, demonstration, and deployment. We need to begin now with the many policies we know to be effective and cost-effective, and adapt as we learn how technologies and policies perform in the real world. • Public attitudes. The extent to which we can achieve climate protection and energy security depends on what Americans do in the public square and in the marketplace. If as citizens we support the necessary public policies, and as consumers we choose advanced technologies, then public policy, technological progress, and market success will be mutually reinforcing. We can succeed if we begin now and sustain our efforts over time. This is of course a considerable challenge, but one that we must take on with great urgency.
This report was prepared as the result of work sponsored by the California Energy Commission. It ... more This report was prepared as the result of work sponsored by the California Energy Commission. It does not necessarily represent the views of the CEC, its employees, or the State of California. The CEC, the State of California, its employees, contractors, and subcontractors make no warrant, express or implied, and assume no legal liability for the information in this report; nor does any party represent that the uses of this information will not infringe upon privately owned rights. This report has not been approved or disapproved by the California Energy Commission, nor has the California Energy Commission passed upon the accuracy or adequacy of the information in this report.
• This project is developing the HYTRANS model, a tool for coherently and consistently analyzing ... more • This project is developing the HYTRANS model, a tool for coherently and consistently analyzing market transitions toward a hydrogen transportation system. Version 1 was to be developed as a proof of principal. • Rapidly create an integrated model of the transition to hydrogen as a transportation fuel using methods developed for the Transition Alternative Fuels and Vehicles (TAFV) Model.
A presentation to the IWG GPRA USDOE, March 6, 2005, Washington, DC. OSMM estimates oil security ... more A presentation to the IWG GPRA USDOE, March 6, 2005, Washington, DC. OSMM estimates oil security benefits of changes in the U.S. oil market.
he Transportation Statistics Annual Report is a summary of the state of the transportation system... more he Transportation Statistics Annual Report is a summary of the state of the transportation system and its consequences, the quality of statistics used to characterize the transportation system, and planned efforts by the U.S. Department of Transportation's Bureau of Transportation Statistics (BTS) to improve the quality of the statistics. BTS was established by Congress to compile, analyze, and make accessible information on the nation's transportation system; to collect information on intermodal transportation and other related areas as needed; and to enhance the quality and effectiveness of the Department of Transportation's statistical programs through research, the development of guidelines, and the promotion of improvements in data acquisition and use.
This report was prepared as an account of work sponsored by an agency of the United States Govern... more This report was prepared as an account of work sponsored by an agency of the United States Government. Neither the United States Government nor any agency thereof. nor any of their employees, contractors, subcontractors, or their employees, makes any warranty, express or implied, nor assumes any legal liability or responsibility for any third party's use or the results of such use of any information, apparatus, product or process disclosed in this report, nor represents that its use by such third party would not infringe privately owned rights.
Between 1978 and 1984, the fuel economy of new automobiles increased by an estimated 6, 7 miles p... more Between 1978 and 1984, the fuel economy of new automobiles increased by an estimated 6, 7 miles per gallon. Previous analyses have shown that fuel economy improvements have been primarily achieved by lowering the average weight of the automobile and reducing the size of the engine. Detailed sales data were used to analyze the contributions of consumer sales shifts and engineering and design improvements to the 1978 to 1984 gain in fuel economy. Most of the gain (70 percent) was found to have resulted from changes in vehicle offerings by manufacturers, whereas only 30 percent of the gain was attributed to sales shifts. The lack of improvement in fuel economy of new automobiles since 1982 is attributed to both consumer selections and manufacturer decisions. Between 1978, when new automobile fuel economy standards became effective, and 1982, the fuel economy of new automobiles increased by one-third, from 19.7 to 26.4 miles per gallon (mpg) C.!l• The 1982 fuel Size Class Sales Configurations Fuel Economy Shift Nameplate Sales Mpg Between Within Improvement Shift
This technical report does not necessarily represent final EPA decisions or positions. It is inte... more This technical report does not necessarily represent final EPA decisions or positions. It is intended to present technical analysis of issues using data that are currently available. The purpose in the release of such reports is to facilitate the exchange of technical information and to inform the public of technical developments.
Three-dimensional (latitude, longitude, altitude) global inventories of civil and military aircra... more Three-dimensional (latitude, longitude, altitude) global inventories of civil and military aircraft fuel burned and emissions have been developed for the United States National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) for the years 1976, 1984, and 1992, and by the European Abatement of Nuisances Caused by Air Transport (ANCAT)/European Commission (EC) Working Group and the Deutsches Zentrum für Luftund Raumfahrt (DLR) for 1991/92. For 1992, the results of the inventory calculations are in good agreement, with total fuel used by aviation calculated to be 129.3 Tg (DLR), 131.2 Tg (ANCAT), and 139.4 Tg (NASA). Total emissions of NO x (as N0 2) in 1992 were calculated to range from 1.7 Tg (NASA) to 1.8 Tg (ANCAT and DLR). Forecasts of air travel demand and technology developed by NASA and ANCAT for 2015 have been used to create three-dimensional (3-D) data sets of fuel burn and NO x emissions for purposes of modeling the nearterm effects of aircraft. The NASA 2015 forecast results in a global fuel burn of 309 Tg, with a NO x emission of 4.1 Tg (as N0 2); the global emission index, EI(NO x) (g NO x /kg fuel), is 13.4. In contrast, the ANCAT 2015 forecast results in lower values-a global fuel burn of 287 Tg, an emission of 3.5 Tg of NO x and a global emission index of 12.3. The differences arise from the distribution of air travel demand and technology assumptions. Comments
In this study, we develop a model to provide a policy framework guiding the transition of transpo... more In this study, we develop a model to provide a policy framework guiding the transition of transportation systems to alternative-fuel powered ones. The model is capable of obtaining good subsidy strategies by solving an optimization problem that maximizes social welfare. Model results suggest a large net gain to the society from a well-planned transition.
A model for predicting choice of alternative fuel and among alternative vehicle technologies for ... more A model for predicting choice of alternative fuel and among alternative vehicle technologies for light-duty motor vehicles is derived. The nested multinomial logit (NML) mathematical framework is used. Calibration of the model is based on information in the existing literature and deduction based on assuming a small number of key parameters, such as the value of time and discount rates. A spreadsheet model has been developed for calibration and preliminary testing of the model. xii 4 TAFV Vehicle Choice Model Structure Gasoline M85 Methanol FFV Fuel Choice Gasoline E85 Ethanol FFV Fuel Choice Gasoline FFV E85 FFV M85 Diesel Conventional/Liquid Vehicles Grid Gasoline Grid Electricity Grid Hybrid Fuel Choice Mild Hybrid (42v) Full Diesel (150-300v) Full Gasoline (150-300 v) Grid (300 v) Hybrid Vehicles
• Develop, document and demonstrate a market-based model of the transition to hydrogen-powered hi... more • Develop, document and demonstrate a market-based model of the transition to hydrogen-powered highway transportation. • Create plausible scenarios of the transition to hydrogen-powered transportation vehicles. • Estimate the public and private benefits and costs of achieving the program goals set by the DOE Hydrogen, Fuel Cells and Infrastructure Technologies (HFCIT) Program and FreedomCAR. • Validate HyTrans as a tool for hydrogen transition modeling, technology assessment, policy analysis and program evaluation.
Transportation is vital to our economy and quality of life. But it is also the primary cause of U... more Transportation is vital to our economy and quality of life. But it is also the primary cause of U.S. oil dependency, and is responsible for more than a quarter of U.S. emissions of the greenhouse gases that are warming our planet. This report examines whether we can substantially reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from U.S. transportation. Report authors David Greene and Steve Plotkin provide three plausible scenarios of technology, policy, and public attitudes that result in cost-effective GHG reductions throughout the transportation sector. The High Mitigation Scenario shows we can reduce GHG emissions from transportation by as much as 65 percent below today's levels by 2050. In order to do so, we need action on three fronts: targeted public policies, technological progress, and commitment from Americans as consumers and citizens. • Technology. Substantial improvements in fuel economy and GHG emission performance are achievable today just through greater utilization of existing technology. By 2035, the fuel efficiency of the U.S. light-duty fleet can improve dramatically (50 mpg for conventional gasoline vehicles and 75 mpg for hybrid vehicles)-if new standards and/or market pressures push vehicle designers to do so. Using a fuel mix of electricity, biofuels, and hydrogen could significantly reduce the number of gasoline-powered passenger vehicles on the road by 2050. Technological advances in other vehicles including trucks, buses, and airplanes could improve the efficiency of those modes substantially. In fact, technologies exist today to reduce GHG emissions from freight trucks by 30 to 50 percent, with even greater reductions achievable over the next several decades. • Policy. To achieve deep reductions in GHG emissions and oil dependence, public policy must be multi-faceted, flexible, and adaptive. We need to level the playing field for, and spur advances in, low-carbon fuels, advanced vehicles, and lower-emitting transportation modes. Policies are needed to pull technology that exists today into the marketplace, support technological development for the future, and correct market failures that have solidified our dependence on fossil fuels. This will require a combination of performance standards, pricing mechanisms, and research, development, demonstration, and deployment. We need to begin now with the many policies we know to be effective and cost-effective, and adapt as we learn how technologies and policies perform in the real world. • Public attitudes. The extent to which we can achieve climate protection and energy security depends on what Americans do in the public square and in the marketplace. If as citizens we support the necessary public policies, and as consumers we choose advanced technologies, then public policy, technological progress, and market success will be mutually reinforcing. We can succeed if we begin now and sustain our efforts over time. This is of course a considerable challenge, but one that we must take on with great urgency.
This report was prepared as the result of work sponsored by the California Energy Commission. It ... more This report was prepared as the result of work sponsored by the California Energy Commission. It does not necessarily represent the views of the CEC, its employees, or the State of California. The CEC, the State of California, its employees, contractors, and subcontractors make no warrant, express or implied, and assume no legal liability for the information in this report; nor does any party represent that the uses of this information will not infringe upon privately owned rights. This report has not been approved or disapproved by the California Energy Commission, nor has the California Energy Commission passed upon the accuracy or adequacy of the information in this report.
• This project is developing the HYTRANS model, a tool for coherently and consistently analyzing ... more • This project is developing the HYTRANS model, a tool for coherently and consistently analyzing market transitions toward a hydrogen transportation system. Version 1 was to be developed as a proof of principal. • Rapidly create an integrated model of the transition to hydrogen as a transportation fuel using methods developed for the Transition Alternative Fuels and Vehicles (TAFV) Model.
A presentation to the IWG GPRA USDOE, March 6, 2005, Washington, DC. OSMM estimates oil security ... more A presentation to the IWG GPRA USDOE, March 6, 2005, Washington, DC. OSMM estimates oil security benefits of changes in the U.S. oil market.
he Transportation Statistics Annual Report is a summary of the state of the transportation system... more he Transportation Statistics Annual Report is a summary of the state of the transportation system and its consequences, the quality of statistics used to characterize the transportation system, and planned efforts by the U.S. Department of Transportation's Bureau of Transportation Statistics (BTS) to improve the quality of the statistics. BTS was established by Congress to compile, analyze, and make accessible information on the nation's transportation system; to collect information on intermodal transportation and other related areas as needed; and to enhance the quality and effectiveness of the Department of Transportation's statistical programs through research, the development of guidelines, and the promotion of improvements in data acquisition and use.
This report was prepared as an account of work sponsored by an agency of the United States Govern... more This report was prepared as an account of work sponsored by an agency of the United States Government. Neither the United States Government nor any agency thereof. nor any of their employees, contractors, subcontractors, or their employees, makes any warranty, express or implied, nor assumes any legal liability or responsibility for any third party's use or the results of such use of any information, apparatus, product or process disclosed in this report, nor represents that its use by such third party would not infringe privately owned rights.
Between 1978 and 1984, the fuel economy of new automobiles increased by an estimated 6, 7 miles p... more Between 1978 and 1984, the fuel economy of new automobiles increased by an estimated 6, 7 miles per gallon. Previous analyses have shown that fuel economy improvements have been primarily achieved by lowering the average weight of the automobile and reducing the size of the engine. Detailed sales data were used to analyze the contributions of consumer sales shifts and engineering and design improvements to the 1978 to 1984 gain in fuel economy. Most of the gain (70 percent) was found to have resulted from changes in vehicle offerings by manufacturers, whereas only 30 percent of the gain was attributed to sales shifts. The lack of improvement in fuel economy of new automobiles since 1982 is attributed to both consumer selections and manufacturer decisions. Between 1978, when new automobile fuel economy standards became effective, and 1982, the fuel economy of new automobiles increased by one-third, from 19.7 to 26.4 miles per gallon (mpg) C.!l• The 1982 fuel Size Class Sales Configurations Fuel Economy Shift Nameplate Sales Mpg Between Within Improvement Shift
This technical report does not necessarily represent final EPA decisions or positions. It is inte... more This technical report does not necessarily represent final EPA decisions or positions. It is intended to present technical analysis of issues using data that are currently available. The purpose in the release of such reports is to facilitate the exchange of technical information and to inform the public of technical developments.
Three-dimensional (latitude, longitude, altitude) global inventories of civil and military aircra... more Three-dimensional (latitude, longitude, altitude) global inventories of civil and military aircraft fuel burned and emissions have been developed for the United States National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) for the years 1976, 1984, and 1992, and by the European Abatement of Nuisances Caused by Air Transport (ANCAT)/European Commission (EC) Working Group and the Deutsches Zentrum für Luftund Raumfahrt (DLR) for 1991/92. For 1992, the results of the inventory calculations are in good agreement, with total fuel used by aviation calculated to be 129.3 Tg (DLR), 131.2 Tg (ANCAT), and 139.4 Tg (NASA). Total emissions of NO x (as N0 2) in 1992 were calculated to range from 1.7 Tg (NASA) to 1.8 Tg (ANCAT and DLR). Forecasts of air travel demand and technology developed by NASA and ANCAT for 2015 have been used to create three-dimensional (3-D) data sets of fuel burn and NO x emissions for purposes of modeling the nearterm effects of aircraft. The NASA 2015 forecast results in a global fuel burn of 309 Tg, with a NO x emission of 4.1 Tg (as N0 2); the global emission index, EI(NO x) (g NO x /kg fuel), is 13.4. In contrast, the ANCAT 2015 forecast results in lower values-a global fuel burn of 287 Tg, an emission of 3.5 Tg of NO x and a global emission index of 12.3. The differences arise from the distribution of air travel demand and technology assumptions. Comments
In this study, we develop a model to provide a policy framework guiding the transition of transpo... more In this study, we develop a model to provide a policy framework guiding the transition of transportation systems to alternative-fuel powered ones. The model is capable of obtaining good subsidy strategies by solving an optimization problem that maximizes social welfare. Model results suggest a large net gain to the society from a well-planned transition.
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