Container Shipping

The basic hypothesis of Traditional finance theory who relevant to the existence of rational investors & efficient markets has challenged in many cases. The rational ability of participants in a market is one of the basics hypotheses of Efficient Market Theory. (Fama 1970)
Recent empirical studies have demonstrated that investors (ownerships) behave systematically not rationally. (D. Ariely2008) The not rational behavior of ship-owners was resulted of Asymmetric information and noise. Such as has declared the Professor Shiller in his lectures: ‘’Things are not perfect, the world is not perfect and in the world there are real people’’. (Shiller 2003)
The emergence of the crisis of 2008 with the collapse of the Lehman brothers and the destabilization of the markets, (in our case Container-ship market), highlighted the importance of Behavior in shaping the economic, social & financial environment.
A crucial step to understand the Herd Behavior is the Prospect Theory (Kahneman & Tversky’s 1979). An investor always looks the prospects which possibly presented. When investors (with the help of favorable economic environment), see prospects for a market (in our case Container-ship) invest. However, in many cases the investors exceed the level of optimism & easily arrive at the point ‘’Greed’’. At this point ‘’Greed’’ the investors taking the biggest investment risk.

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This is an earlier and substantially lengthier version of the European Commission’s Green Paper on Ports and Maritime Infrastructure, which I had prepared as a member of Commissioner Neil Kinnock’s wise men group.

The Green Paper has often been described as the most influential port policy document ever produced by the EC. The current version does not in any way commit the European Commission and interested readers are advised to refer to the final version of the Green Paper as published by the EC.

The present work requires careful and persistent reading so that the reader bypasses the necessary bureaucratic 'superficiality' and identifies my core arguments which, I am happy to say, have not changed to the slightest in the 15 years since its publication. Many of these arguments had been described as ‘politically dangerous’ and, consequently, did not find their way into the Green Paper. I quote one of them in p.7 (emphasis added):

…The Commission’s White Paper on the future development of the common transport policy  laid down a new vision for transport policy, following the principle of sustainable mobility; i.e. a strategy that acknowledges the need for a more balanced transport system that would fulfil its economic and social role while, at the same time, containing its effects on the environment. The overall objective of such an approach, as clearly described by the European Parliament , is to …promote sustainable, efficient transport systems which meet the economic, social, environmental and safety needs of European citizens; help reduce regional disparities; and enable European business to compete effectively in world markets… Again, the ‘challenge’ is apparent: a more balanced  pan-European transport system with the above objectives is in stark contrast with hub-porting; concentration of traffic to selected ports; longer distances; and consequent transport externalities. It is thus increasingly felt that the European Commission needs to depart from its all-pleasing ‘statements’ and make hard-nosed decisions in order to effectuate its cohesion and regional development objectives which are the overarching ones…(unquote).

A closing note of caution on my use of the word 'superficiality': With remarkable consistency, European institutions involved in the maritime sector have been focusing all along on issues such as safety and environmental protection; issues which, among others, have allowed the proliferation of various monopolies in the port sector. I believe this has not happened accidentally. I believe instead that the focus on the ‘secondary’ has obscured and diverted attention from the ‘primary’, which comprises the ‘politically sensitive’ issues of port pricing; infrastructure financing; state aids; transparency of port accounts; and, finally, a European ‘port governance’ model.

This paper demonstrates a non-cooperative four rational player’s static game framework to analyse the shipping alliance competition on a particular Far East-Northern Europe liner shipping service loop. The complete-perfect information case of the players is taken into account and the Cournot-Nash equilibrium pure strategy solution concept is utilised. The approach developed in this study focuses on the current liner shipping alliance structure and assumes the long term stability of the current alliances. The research steps are mathematically integrated to different methodological outcomes and numerically tested in the given case study. The results suggested that, in a two year period, additional ship capacity deployment would reduce the competitiveness of the alliances. It is proposed that outcomes of this research will provide significant theoretical contribution to the existing literature and will generate a robust tactical decision support rationale regarding to the capacity depl...

Japanische Geschichtsschreibung verleitet angesichts der zahlreichen einschneidenden Ereignisse dazu, in mehr oder weniger klar definierbaren Perioden verstanden zu werden. Zwischen diesen Perioden können Wendepunkte stehen, wie zum Beispiel der 17. Januar 1995. In nur wenigen Minuten am frühen Morgen dieses Tages wurde der weltberühmte Seehafen Kōbe zerstört. Die Auswirkungen des Erdbebens betrafen die gesamte Kansai-Region. Dieses Buch ist aber weit mehr als dem Wiederaufbau der Stadt gewidmet, sondern rekapituliert alle weiteren bedeutenden Wendepunkte in der Stadtgeschichte Kōbes, um aufzuzeigen welchen Stellenwert dieser Hafenstandort innerhalb der japanischen Geschichte einnimmt.

Since its appearance in 2003, the what has come to be known as “The Erasmus Report” has been making headlines throughout the world. This, mainly due to its finding that “liner shipping conferences have a stabilizing effect on freight rates and are thus a low cost ‘necessary evil’ for trade promotion and for the survival from destructive competition of this most crucial of industries”.

Unfortunately, this result was not to the liking of DG COMP who, as it became clear, had already made its decision to do away with conferences, expecting the Erasmus Report to just rubber stamp its decision. Ten years later (2012) the Report continues to prove how right it was. European shippers now vehemently complain about rate volatility and this is just music to my ears.

Imagine a field with hundreds of pyramids the size of the greatest ones built in ancient Egypt. That is the volume of the land reclamations in the port of Kobe. This paper is recapitulating the postwar development of this port city once aiming at becoming Asia's mother port. It is offering a brief exploration of the infrastructural development with its land reclamations in deep water and redevelopment of Kobes waterfront (1). Coming and going at large, that are waves but more precisely a changing relationship of the city and its port deeply affected by the mechanics of global logistics (2). Finally this issue of Xontext Industry Reports is touching upon the effects and subsequent recovery from the Great Hanshin Earthquake of 1995 (3).

Prvi kontejnerji so v Luko Koper prispeli že leta 1971, specializirani terminal pa deluje že od leta 1979. Tedaj so se količine na letni ravni približale 40 tisoč TEU. V osemdesetih letih je sledilo obdobje zmerne in stabilne rasti, saj se je promet letno višal za približno 6%. V letu 1987 je dosegel skoraj 67 tisoč TEU. Izjemne dosežke je zabeležil kontejnerski promet tik pred osamosvojitvijo Slovenije, ko se je v letih 1988, 1989 in 1990 zelo povečal in pokazal svojo perspektivnost.

Booth container adalah sebuah stand/booth atau bisa dibilang tempat untuk kita melakukan usaha, bisnis bahkan bisa dijadikan tempat tinggal. Menggunakan bahan dari besi yang biasa ada di kendaraan transportasi pengiriman barang-barang berat. Di jaman yang digital seperti ini, ternyata jika dilihat sangat berpengaruh besar terhadap gaya bisnis modern. Bagaimana maksudnya modern ? jadi masyarakat sekarang lebih suka dengan tampilan yang unik, menarik dan modern. Seperti, misalkan kita buka bisnis kuliner atau lainnya menggunakan booth container dengan tampilan booth yang kita bisa sesuaikan dengan keinginan kita sendiri (custom). Nah kalo kita lihat, mulai tahun 2019 ini sangat banyak sekali orang-orang yang berjualan dengan booth container. Kita biasa temukan mulai dari mall, food street sampai acara-acara kuliner diluar. Pasti ada yang menggunakan booth container. Dibawah ini saya akan berikan contoh desain booth container yang bisa jadi referensi untuk pilihan Anda. 5 Desain Booth Container

When confronted with the introduction of new sanctions regulations, each potentially interested party, be it an individual or an organization, must adapt its behaviour. A commercial enterprise will pursue the goal of achieving sanctions compliance while limiting as much as possible disruption of its business operations.
This compromise proves often a difficult objective to reach.
The rigid operational constraints imposed by trade sanctions require special consideration because there is a lot at stake in our times. Even a single non-compliance incident can bring substantial damage to essential company values such as its reputation, its profitability and its relations with business partners.

This paper is organized in three parts.

In the first part (chapters 1 to 3), after a brief outline of the history of trade sanctions, the current status of trade sanctions relevant for the shipping industry will be presented. A particular attention is dedicated to the U.S. sanctions policy and its related actions. Sanctions regimes have of course several political and geographical dimensions, from the United Nations, through the European Union down to individual national programs. The decision of concentrating on U.S. sanctions regulations is motivated by the very prominent, far-reaching and sometimes aggressive behaviour of its enforcement agency, the Office for Foreign Assets Control (OFAC) (1).

In the second part (chapters from 4 to 6), the author will try to show how well does the business manage to be compliant with the regulatory frameworks described in the first part. Several major non-compliance incidents will be considered, highlighting the tangible and intangible damages suffered by the companies. Further on, the role of promotor of industry standards played by a state agency such as OFAC will be illustrated, together with some of the most challenging aspects of U.S. sanctions compliance. The paper will then illustrate common issues faced by the shipping company departments that are most directly involved in sanctions due diligence and the strategies adopted to minimize risk. To this aim, the author will make use of specific findings obtained during a recent internship at the Legal department of MSC Belgium NV.

In the third and final part (chapter 7), the author will indicate three opportunities of improvement that in her opinion could have a positive effect on sanctions compliance management: a better transposition of sanctions requirements in IMO regulations, a deeper integration of compliance mechanisms in business operations, further enhancements in data screening tools allowing more efficient controls on cargo.

(1) OFAC is a financial intelligence and enforcement agency of the U.S. Treasury Department, which, according to their website, has “a long history of dealing with sanctions, dating back prior to the War of 1812. […] OFAC itself was formally created in December 1950, following the entry of China into the Korean War, when President Truman declared a national emergency and blocked all Chinese and North Korean assets subject to U.S. jurisdiction.” (OFAC, 2019)

This white paper provides a business analysis of Maersk, the Danish container shipping conglomerate. The paper begins with an overview of Maerk's operations and finances before diving into a PESTLE analysis (examining political, economic, social, technological, legal, and environmental factors). I analyze Maersk's position in the industry and competition. I also describe Maersk's business model and strategy before making short-term and long-term recommendations for Maersk's business with a particular emphasis on sustainability and environmental concerns.

NASCITA ED EVOLUZIONE DEI CONTAINERS

Una rivoluzione recente quella dei containers e del trasporto marittimo degli stessi, una rivoluzione strisciante che oggi è diventata condizione del benessere, una rivoluzione scarsamente percepita dall’ opinione pubblica sino a che la sua importanza non è apparsa in tutta la sua gravità e implicazioni in occasione dell’ incaglio di una mega-portacontainers nel canale di Suez.
Oggi si parla di portacontainer da decine di migliaia di TEU, numero enorme di “pezzi” la cui movimentazione richiede una organizzazione complessa ma anche capillare, attenta ai minimi dettagli, nonché una attenta gestione tecnico-nautica della nave
Al gigantismo delle “navi madre” che possono solo scalare terminali attrezzati, sempre più specializzati, si è aggiunto il controllo di questi “snodi” da parte  della stesse “mani”, pochi operatori che, abbiamo visto nella “prova generale” del blocco del Canale di Suez, possono mettere in ginocchio l’ economia mondiale, agendo su poche leve di comando.

Come si è giunti a questo? come premessa ad un’ analisi di questa situazione, è utile conoscere come, in pochissimi anni, si sia arrivati a questa gestione degli scambi, in particolare per la parte marittima.

Questo articolo è stato originalmente richiesto, a fini divulgativi,  da Italian Shiplovers per pubblicazione nel dicembre 2020

Introducing new technologies often crush unions; indeed, sometimes that is the purpose. However, the International Longshore & Warehouse Union (ILWU), on the US Pacific Coast, demonstrates that need not occur. In 1960, the ILWU and Pacific Maritime Association signed the Mechanization & Modernization agreement (M&M). M&M represented among the first efforts by a union to shape this process—to “get a share of the machine.” Although workers understood that new technologies cannot simply be resisted, tremendous controversy still existed, culminating in the US shipping industry’s longest strike ever. In 1971, members of the San Francisco Bay area’s Local 10 led this strike, having experienced containerization most extensively. Although their numbers plummeted, those remaining maintained power at a strategic point of the global economy. Looking at how these workers managed to survive and partially shape the introduction of a valuable new technology suggests that it, and globalization, need not always destroy unions.

El presente libro, es un manual práctico de recopilación, de casi toda la información necesaria para comprender a cabalidad, la responsabilidad de gestionar el proceso de transportar Mercancías Peligrosas por vía Marítima, desde la documentación, hasta el tomar consciencia de la propia importancia a la hora de cometer algún error, cuyas consecuencias, suelen ser fatales.

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El libro está estructurado en 7 capítulos, en los cuales se abordan fundamentalmente, los conceptos básicos y la forma de gestionar desde el operador logístico, la documentación propia relacionada con este tipo de cargas.Adicionalmente, se estudian algunos de los principales accidentes, donde se analizan los errores cometidos, así como las necesarias reflexiones, que a ciencia cierta, nos permitirán evitar que vuelvan a ocurrir, siniestros como los mostrados. Es pues un manual vivo, abierto a modificaciones, a sugerencias y a actualizaciones necesarias, pero que urgía de una versión en castellano, para la gran comunidad hispana, que permita formar y capacitar a los colaboradores de nuestro gran sector logístico y marítimo, Finalmente, cerramos esta edición, con el aún reciente accidente de Beirut, que se ha cobrado lamentablemente, vidas humanas. Por ellos y por sus familiares, nuestro compromiso en formar de una forma adecuada a quienes nos siguen en esta maravillosa aventura de la logística y los negocios marítimos. Los autores hemos llevado a cabo un trabajo conjunto de recopilación de reglamentos, modos operativos y legislación, con un criterio fundamentalmente práctico, mediante el cual pretendemos que el lector pueda entender y desarrollar la manera de organizar y ejecutar un embarque marítimo de mercancías peligrosas. Encontrará aquí referencias a textos legales que se pueden encontrar en internet de modo que no necesitan ser reproducidos, para el caso que su curiosidad intelectual le requiera un mayor grado de información.

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Kontejnerje srečamo na železniških vagonih, na tovornjakih, na ladjah, na gradbiščih in pristanišča so jih popolnoma polna. Tovor je pogosto različnih oblik in dimenzij. Spravilo takšnega tovora v kontejner omogoča, da s tem tovorom ravnamo kot z enim kosom, kar olajša transport. To posledično znižuje stroške in porabljen čas.
Razvoj kontejnerskega transporta je posledica prehoda s konvencionalnega načrta dela na mehanizirane in avtomatizirane pretvorne operacije v posameznih stopnjah transporta. Z uvedbo kontjnerizacije so rešeni številni problemi v transportu blaga »od vrat do vrat«, v celinskem in medcelinskem prometu. Ustvarjen je velik napredek v kombiniranem prometu kopenskega in pomorskega prevoza, ker je učinek pretovarjanja večji, zadrževanje prevoznih sredstev v pristaniščih pa zmanjšano na minimum. Kontejnerski sistem transporta je enovit. Njegovo delovanje je odvisno od številnih dejavnikov, kot so sredstva prevoza, manipulacija, infrastrukturni objekti, skladiščenje… Zaradi tega zahteva kontejnerizacija specialne objekte in sredstva za specifične namene.
Osnovna sredstva in objekti infrastrukture v kontejnerskem transportu so zabojniki, železniška in cestna prevozna sredstva, pretovorni objekti – terminali z vso pretovorno opremo kontejnerske ladje.

Розглянуто термінологічний апарат, що характеризує контейнерну транспортно-технологічну систему. Проаналізовано сучасні визначення транспортно-технологічних систем, формалізовано та представлено у візуальній формі контейнерну транспортно-технологічну систему на відтинку «агрегат–агрегат». Встановлено місце і зв'язок контейнерних транспортно-технологічних систем по відношенню до споріднених транспортних систем інших рівнів, запропоновано принципові тези, які можуть бути прийнятими за основу концептуального аналізу контейнерних транспортно-технологічних систем. Ключові слова: транспортна система, виробнича система, транспортно-технологічна система, контейнер, інтермодальні перевезення, система доставки. Вступ. Різноманіття і складність самих систем класу виробничих, в тому числі транспортних, а також багатоваріантність, і навіть антагоністичність уявлень дослідників-транспортників, які займаються моделюванням систем щодо об'єкта дослідження, викликає достатню кількість дискусій вже на рівні термінологічного інструменту. В останній час отримав поширення логістичний підхід, який у вирішенні транспортних завдань привніс нову термінологію, що призвело до зміщення і розмиття базових (класичних) понять. Тому дослідження в області структури транспортних систем, їх термінології та класифікації призводить до загального впорядкування та систематизації знань про транспорт. Основна частина. Метою статті є виявлення на основі запропонованих існуючих термінологічних понять, наведених авторами в науковій літературі, таких ознак, які б ясно задали уявлення про контейнерну транспортно-технологічну систему в контексті природного розвитку знань про транспорт у вітчизняній науці та її термінологічної інтерпретації на рівні «відправник–одержувач». Щодо встановлення структурних елементів і зв'язків між ними, в досліджуваній транспортно-технологічній системі був використаний апарат системного аналізу, реалізовані принципи і допущення, що лежать в його основі. Виходячи з аксіоматичного уявлення про транспорт як сферу виробництва, транспортно-технологічні системи належать до класу виробничих систем (ВС), або транспортно-виробничих (ТВС), у зв'язку зі специфікою транспортування як нематеріального продукту виробництва. У зв'язку з тим, що основу функціонування будь-якої ТВС становить технологія перевезень, основним системоутворюючим компонентом є сам матеріальний об'єкт переміщення [10], тобто сам рух вантажу, в контексті контейнерної транспортно-технологічної системи (КТТС) – рух контейнеропотоків. Найбільш точне термінологічне визначення КТТС, яке б містило елементи, зв'язки, мету системи, спостерігача, представлене одним з можливих способів, може лежати лише в площині окремо взятого завдання. Тому термінологічне розмаїття є лише наслідком широти досліджуваних проблем і методів їх вирішення. Це, однак, ні в якому разі не дає права на підміну поняття «транспортно-технологічних система», а лише встановлює можливість певної інтерпретації як реалізації свободи наукового пошуку в межах системи термінів «класичного підходу» до розгляду функціонування і розвитку транспорту. Питання термінологічного характеру, що виникли внаслідок міждисциплінарною інтеграції, яке супроводжується переходом термінів з існуючого у вітчизняній транспортній науці і практиці понятійного апарату в терміносистему логістики, докладно і чітко висвітлено у [3]. Також досить докладно поняття ТТС уточнено в роботі [12]. Там же обґрунтована нетотожність понять «транспортної» і «логістичної» систем. В даний час відносно контейнерних транспортно-технологічних систем немає і не може бути єдиного визначення, яке цю систему представляє, оскільки «система есть отражение в сознании субъекта (исследователя, наблюдателя) свойств объектов и их отношений в решении задачи исследования, познания» [11]. КТТС доставки вантажів являє собою систему взаємодіючих елементів, тому при вирішенні завдань планування організації системи доставки доцільним є застосування методів системного аналізу, суть яких полягає у визначенні елементів системи, зв'язків між ними, дослідження впливу кожного з них на систему в цілому. У науковій літературі достатньо суперечливо представлено визначення ТТС: «Качественно новая форма организации транспортного процесса во всех ее звеньях на основе эффективного использования специализированных транспортных средств, [1]

This dissertation is a case study of an economic evaluation of a 700 TEU class container feeder vessel as an alternative short sea shipping service in the Caspian Sea. The proposed case study illustrates the introduction of container transportation services by feeder vessel
between the Port of Baku (Azerbaijan) and the Port of Aktau (Kazakhstan).
The dissertation briefly outlines the background information related to the shipping industry and specifically to the container shipping and short sea shipping. The following part of the dissertation will discuss the possibility of the main assumption which lies in the number of containers that can be transported. The main question to be asked is whether it is possible to generate a satisfactory number of containers in each port or not? Hence, it requires an in-depth analysis of the projected transportation route, which covers Central Asia and the
Caucasus. Consequently, the current condition of the main trade corridor, which covers Baku and Aktau ports will be analysed.
The latter study will conduct rational and reasonable inferences and assumptions for the proposed case study based on collected fragmentary data which has been publicized. One key assumption is that the number of containers to be transported changes accordingly to the previously given number order. This means, there are minimum and a maximum limit of containers that can be transported between those ports.

This article presents results from the first statistically significant study of cost escalation in transportation infrastructure projects. Based on a sample of 258 transportation infrastructure projects worth US$90 billion and representing different project types, geographical regions, and historical periods, it is found with overwhelming statistical significance that the cost estimates used to decide whether such projects should be built are highly and systematically misleading. Underestimation cannot be explained by error and is best explained by strategic misrepresentation, that is, lying. The policy implications are clear: legislators, administrators, investors, media representatives, and members of the public who value honest numbers should not trust cost estimates and cost-benefit analyses produced by project promoters and their analysts.

This article intends primarily to demonstrate that the inadequate understanding of shipping containers is at the root of all the other issues in international transport law. As evidence of the impact of this lack of understanding, this article discusses the inadequacies of the existing international and national rules as applied to containers in terms of the carrier's `period of responsibility' and`supply of containers', and shows, adopting a comparative law approach between American, Australian, English and French jurisdictions, that these inadequacies have not been compensated for by the courts. This has led to a confusing legal situation, and it is unlikely that the project undertaken by the Comite¨Maritime International (CMI) to prepare a new international transport convention will clarify the situation.

El presente libro, es un manual práctico de recopilación, de casi toda la información necesaria para comprender a cabalidad, la responsabilidad de gestionar el proceso de transportar Mercancías Peligrosas por vía Marítima, desde la documentación, hasta el tomar consciencia de la propia importancia a la hora de cometer algún error, cuyas consecuencias, suelen ser fatales.

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El libro está estructurado en 7 capítulos, en los cuales se abordan fundamentalmente, los conceptos básicos y la forma de gestionar desde el operador logístico, la documentación propia relacionada con este tipo de cargas.Adicionalmente, se estudian algunos de los principales accidentes, donde se analizan los errores cometidos, así como las necesarias reflexiones, que a ciencia cierta, nos permitirán evitar que vuelvan a ocurrir, siniestros como los mostrados. Es pues un manual vivo, abierto a modificaciones, a sugerencias y a actualizaciones necesarias, pero que urgía de una versión en castellano, para la gran comunidad hispana, que permita formar y capacitar a los colaboradores de nuestro gran sector logístico y marítimo, Finalmente, cerramos esta edición, con el aún reciente accidente de Beirut, que se ha cobrado lamentablemente, vidas humanas. Por ellos y por sus familiares, nuestro compromiso en formar de una forma adecuada a quienes nos siguen en esta maravillosa aventura de la logística y los negocios marítimos. Los autores hemos llevado a cabo un trabajo conjunto de recopilación de reglamentos, modos operativos y legislación, con un criterio fundamentalmente práctico, mediante el cual pretendemos que el lector pueda entender y desarrollar la manera de organizar y ejecutar un embarque marítimo de mercancías peligrosas. Encontrará aquí referencias a textos legales que se pueden encontrar en internet de modo que no necesitan ser reproducidos, para el caso que su curiosidad intelectual le requiera un mayor grado de información.

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Megaproject Planning and Management: Essential Readings contains the seminal articles from the growing body of research on megaproject planning and management along with an original introduction by the editor, Bent Flyvbjerg. The leading and most cited authority in the field, Flyvbjerg has used crowdsourcing and 25 years of experience to cherry-pick from several hundred articles and books the writings that define the field. This volume will be an indispensable source for those wishing to speak with authority about how megaprojects are prepared, delivered, and fought over. The target audience is students, academics, practitioners, and media pundits alike, as well as communities affected by megaprojects.

From the poorly managed public infrastructures of the previous century, ports have evolved into high-tech enterprises and crucial nodes in global supply chains of production, transport and distribution. Containerization has been instrumental in this transformation, together with the impressive and seemingly unstoppable gigantism in containership sizes. The former ‘city-ports’ –facilities created inside or at the confines of river cities—are no longer sufficient to handle the requirements of modern ships, and ports, in need of more space and water depths, have moved downstream, in river estuaries, towards the open sea. Pressure on ports to continue upgrading their infrastructure is mounting, necessitated by increasing port competition and the requirements of mega-ships. Limits to growth are, however, visible, and equally visible is the need for a more balanced approach between the benefits of mega-ships and the costs these ships impose on the planning, development and operations of ports.

Back cover text: Megaprojects and Risk provides the first detailed examination of the phenomenon of megaprojects. It is a fascinating account of how the promoters of multi-billion dollar megaprojects systematically and self-servingly misinform parliaments, the public and the media in order to get projects approved and built. It shows, in unusual depth, how the formula for approval is an unhealthy cocktail of underestimated costs, overestimated revenues, undervalued environmental impacts and overvalued economic development effects. This results in projects that are extremely risky, but where the risk is concealed from MPs, taxpayers and investors. The authors not only explore the problems but also suggest practical solutions drawing on theory, experience and hard, scientific evidence from the several hundred projects in twenty nations and five continents that illustrate the book. Accessibly written, it will be the standard reference for students, scholars, planners, economists, auditors, politicians and interested citizens for many years to come.

The article first describes characteristics of major infrastructure projects. Second, it documents a much neglected topic in economics: that ex ante estimates of costs and benefits are often very different from actual ex post costs and benefits. For large infrastructure projects the consequences are cost overruns, benefit shortfalls, and the systematic underestimation of risks. Third, implications for cost–benefit analysis are described, including that such analysis is not to be trusted for major infrastructure projects. Fourth, the article uncovers the causes of this state of affairs in terms of perverse incentives that encourage promoters to underestimate costs and overestimate benefits in the business cases for their projects. But the projects that are made to look best on paper are the projects that amass the highest cost overruns and benefit shortfalls in reality. The article depicts this situation as ‘survival of the unfittest’. Fifth, the article sets out to explain how the problem may be solved, with a view to arriving at more efficient and more democratic projects, and avoiding the scandals that often accompany major infrastructure investments. Finally, the article identifies current trends in major infrastructure development. It is argued that a rapid increase in stimulus spending, combined with more investments in emerging economies, combined with more spending on information technology is catapulting infrastructure investment from the frying pan into the fire.

ABSTRACT:

Greece has the longest coastline in the EU and possesses a large number of islands, therefore it has an extensive number of ports.

The Greek ports sector has been undergoing structural changes during the last three years as a consequence of the combined effects of privatization attempts by the Greek government and the impact of the world financial crisis.

Although, the national privatization agency, Hellenic Republic Asset Development Fund’s –TAIPED – has had to draft the privatization schedule within the strict time limits imposed by the Troika, it has yet to succeed in concluding a single port privatization deal. This is indicative of the complexity of the issues involved, but also of the gravity of the political repercussions.

The paper reviews what Greece has to offer in terms of ports in Part One and assesses the current position of the ports while presenting a number of ideas about their future in Part Two.

An integrated design and multiobjective optimization approach to ship design is herein presented. It integrates methods and software tools for the simultaneous evaluation of key measures of merit in the early phase of ship design. The implemented approach is herein applied to the design of an Aframax tanker for which a variety of parameters related to payload, steel weight, strength, oil outflow, stability and hydrodynamics were considered within an integrated multiobjective design and optimization procedure. Required Freight Rates (RFR), Oil Outflow Index (OOI), Energy Efficiency Design Index (EEDI) and maximum speed for given main engine margins were determined so as to rank design alternatives. Formal exploration and exploitation strategies were utilized to investigate the design space and, subsequently, advance competing design proposals into certain directions such as maximum energy efficiency, attainable speed and environmental protection in case of accidents. The paper focuses on the integration of design methods, of related software tools and optimization, utilizing the design of a tanker as an elaborated demonstration example to illustrate the holistic view of the adopted approach.

HOLD: Pop-Up Event-Space and Containerization in the Time of Contagion

The 2010s saw a proliferation of pop-up venues for performance, especially through the utilization of shipping containers. Born out of economic necessity, such flexible, fast and low-cost solutions repurposed vacant sites to temporarily accommodate nomadic theatres, restaurants, bars, clubs and shops: leading to innovative ways of gathering and participating in public space through anti-commercial urban regeneration. However, as a revitalizing phenomenon, the pop-up was quickly coopted by commerce to normalize insecure conditions, while operating as short-term gentrifying agents that glorify precarity for longer-term capitalist ends. This was most prevalent in shipping container architecture; constructed out of endlessly reproducible, aesthetically impoverished and globally ubiquitous elements designed for the efficient trafficking of commodities, including human beings. By the end of the 21st century’s second decade, the covid-19 pandemic both revealed and radically destabilized globalization, with the restless movement of goods and humans across borders indefinitely curtailed. What does this mean for spaces of (and as) events? Covid-19 has shown us that contaminants can be neither controlled nor easily contained: that they evade borders, invade bodies and propagate silently, quickly and without prejudice. What therefore pops-up in relation to dramatic architecture in-motion? Inquiring into the challenges and promises of such mobility, this paper critically presents and discusses the problematics of container architecture.

Slow steaming is the current way of doing business  in the container shipping market. In times that margins are getting smaller and smaller and overcapacity in the industry is structural, cutting costs is more important than ever before. This research investigates the costs and benefits faced by container carriers at an annual individual service level as a result of vessel speed adjustments. By means of a first difference analysis, bunker prices needed to offset cost increases resulting from consecutively vessel speed decreases by one knot are calculated. This first differential break-even bunker price analysis is a function of operating, capital, time and emission costs on the one hand and fuel consumption on the other hand. Break-even bunker prices found in this research vary between $762 and -$74 for different services and different speed levels implying the high cost savings potential at higher speeds. In this research, for several major east-west container shipping services the break-even IFO380 bunker price is computed at various speed levels. It appears that the current optimal speeds lie between 15 and 17 knots given current bunker prices in major bunker ports. This research complements existing research by completely focussing on the speed decision faced by carriers and accounting for the environmental aspect in term of CO2 emission cost. The results from this research serve as a basis for strategic decision making on individual service level from a carrier perspective in terms of vessel speed and vessel deployment decisions.

As megaprojects have become ubiquitous, their real benefits and costs have come under increased scrutiny. We interviewed Bent Flyvbjerg, who has extensively studied megaproject development. Flyvbjerg has found systematic problems in the development process: by intentionally misrepresenting information and deliberately disregarding risks, proponents instigate projects that result in fewer benefits and higher costs than promised.

The Supplementary Green Book Guidance on Optimism Bias (HM Treasury 2003) with reference to the Review of Large Public Procurement in the UK (Mott MacDonald 2002) notes that there is a demonstrated, systematic, tendency for project appraisers to be overly optimistic and that to redress this tendency appraisers should make explicit, empirically based adjustments to the estimates of a project’s costs, benefits, and duration. HM Treasury recommends that these adjustments be based on data from past projects or similar projects elsewhere, and adjusted for the unique characteristics of the project in hand. In the absence of a more specific evidence base, HM Treasury has encouraged departments to collect data to inform future estimates of optimism, and in the meantime use the best available data. In response to this, the Department for Transport (henceforth DfT), has contracted Bent Flyvbjerg in association with COWI to undertake the consultancy assignment "Procedures for dealing with Optimism Bias in Transport Planning". The present Guidance Document is the result of this assignment.

This is the book by which, with Neil Kinnock and Glenda Jackson (then UK transport minister), we introduced the Quality Shipping campaign, as well as the European Commission’s “Towards a New Maritime Strategy” document, appended in the book. The Strategy Document was debated at the MAREFORUM conference which I organized at Erasmus University.

"Over budget, over time, over and over again" appears to be an appropriate slogan for large, complex infrastructure projects. This article explains why cost, benefits, and time forecasts for such projects are systematically over-optimistic in the planning phase. The underlying reasons for forecasting errors are grouped into three categories: delusions or honest mistakes; deceptions or strategic manipulation of information or processes; or bad luck. Delusion and deception have each been addressed in the management literature before, but here they are jointly considered for the first time. They are specifically applied to infrastructure problems in a manner that allows both academics and practitioners to understand and implement the suggested corrective procedures. The article provides a framework for analyzing the relative explanatory power of delusion and deception. It also suggests a simplified framework for analyzing the complex principal-agent relationships that are involved in the approval and construction of large infrastructure projects, which can be used to improve forecasts. Finally, the article illustrates reference class forecasting, an outside view de-biasing technique that has proven successful in overcoming both delusion and deception in private and public investment decisions.