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Development of sustainable water management strategies involves identifi cation of vulnerability and adaptation possibilities, followed by an effect analysis of these adaptation strategies under different possible futures. Recent scenario studies on water management were mainly ‘what-if’ assessments in one or two future situations. The future is, however, more complex and dynamic. It involves general trends and unexpected events in both the water and the social system. Moreover, the two systems interact: society responds to events and the state of the water system changes in response to management. In this paper we discuss a transdisciplinary approach. Key elements in the concept are (1) the model of pressure, state, impact and response, (2) the Perspectives method to consider uncertainties of social and natural systems and (3) the evaluation of the system using transient scenarios in which we consider time series of trends, events and interaction between the water system and society. The effect analysis is executed with an integrated assessment meta-model based on simple cause–effect relations and response curves.

Causal layered analysis is offered as a new futures research method. It utility is not in predicting the future but in creating transformative spaces for the creation of alternative futures. Causal layered analysis consists of four levels: the litany, social causes, discourse/worldview and myth/metaphor. The challenge is to conduct research that moves up and down these layers of analysis and thus is inclusive of different ways of knowing.

This paper highlights the importance of Software architecture in the present IT industry scenario. It  focuses on different architectural styles and their suitability in existing projects. The paper provides an overall view of the importance of Software Architecture in the present context.The intricacies involved in the design issues are also highlighted

a b s t r a c t Urban areas are expanding at a very fast rate worldwide. The task of managing urban growth has increased in both scope and complexity and has become one of the most important challenges in the 21st century. This article aims to examine the urban development and optimize spatial patterns of future urban growth allocation based on scenarios to provide a basis for urban environmental management in the Kathmandu Valley, Nepal. We developed an artificial neural network based urban growth allocation model for the valley. This predictive model optimizes spatial patterns of future urban growth allocation under the three scenarios, i.e., spontaneous, environment-protecting, and resources-saving. The predicted spatial patterns mirrors where and how the urban development in the valley is likely heading by 2050 and provides a crucial information on land availability for future land development projects. The results suggest that the current urban development process is in critical stage where urban and peri-urban areas will face unprecedented stress on land resources costing river and forest ecosystems and other environmentally sensitive areas by the next decade. Rural vicinities will face regional imbalance on urban growth allocations. However, there are still possibilities to improve urban environment and manage the potential land demands in the valley by enforcing the urban growth policies strictly and altering the current growth trend as revealed in the environment-protecting and resources-saving scenarios.

Within large integrative scenario studies, it is often problematic to fully link narrative storylines and quantitative models. This paper demonstrates the potential use of a highly participatory scenario development framework that involves a mix of qualitative, semi-quantitative and quantitative methods. The assumption is that the use of semi-quantitative methods will structure the participatory output, which provides a solid base for quantification. It should further facilitate the communication between stakeholders and modellers. Fuzzy Cognitive Maps is the main semi-quantitative method and has a central place in the proposed framework. The paper provides a detailed description of its implementation in participatory workshops, also because of a lack of documented testing of its implementation. We tested Fuzzy Cognitive Maps as part of the framework in two training sessions; both gave encouraging results. Results show that the tool provides a structured, semi-quantitative understanding of the system perceptions of a group of participants. Participants perceived the method as easy to understand and easy to use in a short period of time. This supports the hypothesis that Fuzzy Cognitive Maps can be used as part of a scenario development framework and that the new framework can help to bridge the gap between storylines and models.

This monograph series presents case studies of approaches to complex problems which exist in human systems throughout the globe. The first issue of the monograph illustrates an approach for creating a structured understanding of the global challenges delineated by the Millennium Project and critical problems identified in the Predicament of Mankind Proposal. It concludes with a reflection on implications for New Strategic Theory and Social Mediation - Communication Theory for democratization.

Contemporary cities are complex systems whose administration is difficult and even more difficult it is designing their future in a participative way. Nevertheless, nowadays we can rely on specific skills to design new scenarios of social sustainability and well-being, and on appropriate information and communication technologies to involve a greater number of citizens. The aim of this paper is to discuss how these co-designs are changing the way people interact with each other and with the city they live in an open and interactive environment. Therefore, we present the PortoAlegre.cc project. It is an initiative our University is developing in collaboration with the Porto Alegre Municipality, considering that in Brazil the participation issue is clearly an unresolved emergency. The project is based on an online platform and it explores face-to-face moments of shared value co-creation.

[L’innovazione in architettura e nel progetto urbano.].
Nel mondo delle scienze tecnologiche, l’idea di innovare l’architettura a partire dalla sua forme e consistenza materiale, si basa sul convincimento - di natura deterministica - che la percezione di uno stato di disagio ed inadeguatezza, rispetto a mutate condizioni ambientali, spinga le società umane a ricercare forme organizzative più soddisfacenti e idonee a garantirne il benessere. In tale visione, l’innovazione si attua in modo organizzato, secondo filiere e processi produttivi che determinano un profondo impatto culturale e strutturale nel dominio delle scienze umane e dell’architettura nella fattispecie.
Sul versante opposto, gli studiosi dell’arte sono propensi ad individuare precisi capisaldi logico-filosofici tendenti a negare il concetto di progresso nella vita delle forme rivendicandone, per l’appunto, la piena autonomia, sino al rischio dell’auto-referenzialità. Si individua, piuttosto la
tendenza alla variazione basata sulla libertà combinatoria e sulla creazione di codici regolatori interni. Loro scopo è la creazione di equilibri nelle nuove composizioni, col ricorso a figure elementari e loro riproducibilità – nel linguaggio tradizionale classico – o a tecnologie digitali, nella ricerca di inusitate sperimentazioni formali e spaziali. In ambo i casi il processo di produzione di nuove forme funzionali presuppone la circolarità di temi, col riuso di stilemi e morfemi esistenti ma diversamente combinati tra loro.
[Ipotesi di ricerca]: -- In tale quadro di riferimenti relazionali, si fonda la riflessione odierna: - individuare i meccanismi che presiedono alla formazione del concetto di innovazione, in grado di imprimere – in momenti di crisi – azioni ed assetti di significativa discontinuità rispetto agli equilibri preesistenti; - verificare se nella teoria della progettazione architettonica e urbana, l’innovazione sia o meno in grado di prefigurare vie d’uscita rispetto ad attuali situazioni – di marcata conflittualità sociale e asfissia culturale - in cui si dibattono le discipline progettuali.; - analizzare i casi in cui il ricorso a prefigurazioni spinte nel futuro prossimo e remoto - si basino su conoscenze consolidate o in via di sviluppo; - valutare se la postulazione di ordini possibili a prescindere dal dominio di conoscenze strutturate in forma logica, consenta di ottenere o meno significativi risultati in ambito progettuale;
[Tesi:] Il saggio propone - attraverso la presentazione di progetti e manifestazioni variamente collocati nell’ arco degli ultimi 100 anni - alcune tra le più originali idee che stanno alla base del concetto di innovazione in rapporto alla tradizione, ovvero, focalizzare quali siano le questioni, di natura funzionale e sostanziale, che individuano i caratteri di “progresso” nel progetto architettonico e urbano.

Water management strategies in times of global change need to be developed within a complex and uncertain environment. Scenarios are often used to deal with uncertainty. A novel backcasting methodology has been tested in which a normative objective (e.g. adaptive water management) is backcasted within the context of exploratory scenarios that sketch four different plausible futures (Economy First, Policy Rules, Fortress Europe, and Sustainability Eventually). The main advantage of combining exploratory and normative scenarios is in the identification of robust actions: actions that are effective in the different socio-environmental contexts sketched in the exploratory scenarios. This paper has three objectives: (1) to present the methodology, focussing on its novel aspects (2) to test the methodology and evaluate its perceived success by analysing organiser and stakeholder feedback and (3) to analyse and evaluate the results, in order to study the impact of the exploratory scenarios on the backcasting results and the added value of robust actions. The methodology was successfully tested in 9 local and one regional case study in a water project water scenarios for Europe and for Neighbouring States (SCENES). Results showed that the exploratory scenarios influenced the content of the backcasts, thus making the identification of robust strategies possible. The list of robust strategies includes both technological and social/organisational strategies, highlighting the need for an integrated approach. The approach shows high potential, but as the methodology is in its infancy more research is needed, particularly in methods to facilitate and monitor information flow between exploratory scenarios and backcasts.

Addressing the question "whither philanthropy" requires mapping "from whence philanthropy" before exploring emerging issues that could transform philanthropy, charity, and giving. This essay briefly sketches the roots of philanthropy in Western culture, and categorises the range of philanthropic activity that developed to the present. The issues that philanthropy has traditionally addressed are divided into acute (short-term) and chronic (ongoing) projects of amelioration, and acute and chronic projects of creativity. The essay then focusses on the key issue of emerging changes, and how they might impact three key components of philanthropy: philanthropic intent, philanthropic infrastructure, and the issues that philanthropic projects attempt to address. The final sections include a brief thought experiment exploring where emerging issues might take philanthropic activity in future, and suggestions as to possible points of leverage for immediate action.

"The purpose of this study was to identify skill needs for the emerging agrifood nanotechnology sector and to determine how agricultural education can contribute to human resource and workforce development for this sector.  As nanotechnology continues to advance in food and agriculture, there is the need for pragmatic decisions as to how to prepare the workforce. This mixed methods study incorporated disparate fields of systems and complexity theories; nanoscience and nanotechnology; science policy; agricultural education; human resource development and workforce education.  The study followed a four-step process involving different methods and approaches. The first phase involved a comprehensive systematic evidence review (SER) and analysis of the literature.  This phase of the study also helped to identify key experts and formulate questions for the in-depth and semi-structured interviews and also quantitative survey instruments. A comprehensive stakeholder analysis was done using primary data obtained from experts.

The second phase of the study used multi-criteria approaches for value elicitation (which included qualitative and quantitative data) from key stakeholders and experts to identify current and future skill needs in the agrifood nanotechnology sector. The third phase of the study included quantitative analysis, Qualitative Systems Analysis (QSA) and Strategic Flexibility Analysis (SFA) of evidence from the literature review and the multi-criteria value elicitation of experts and stakeholders. The final phase of the study created a generic systems model from the quantitative analysis, QSA and SFA to describe holistically the current and future skill needs for agrifood nanotechnology workers as well as how educational practice and policy can meet these needs.

The main conclusions from this study are that: (1) future shortages and skills gaps in agrifood nanotechnology are expected to increase but at the same time there is still quite a lot of uncertainty about future developments and impacts of nanotechnology in the agrifood sector  to accurately determine future demand and supply of agrifood nanoskilled workforce. (2) Extra demands in high qualified workers with a background in sciences and engineering (PhD, MSc) will be needed. (3) STEM education at the K-12 levels is even more important than ever and that K-12 nanotechnology programs should be a seamless part of the overall STEM initiative. And most importantly STEM education should not be devoid of employability skills. (4) In addition to various types of technical skills that come with advances in any technology, and thus nanotechnology, employability skills and competencies such as problem solving and ability to work in an interdisciplinary context are considered very important.
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A complex digital circuit comprises of adder as a basic unit. The performance of the circuit depends on the design of this basic adder unit. The speed of operation of a circuit is one of the important performance criteria of many digital circuits which ultimately depends on the delay of the basic adder unit. Many research works have been devoted in improving the delay of the adder circuit. In this paper we have proposed an improved carry increment adder (CIA) that improves the delay performance of the circuit. The improvement is achieved by incorporating carry look adder (CLA) in the design of CIA contrary to the previous design of CIA that employs ripple carry adder (RCA). A simulation study is carried out for comparative analysis. The coding is done in Verilog hardware description language (HDL) and the simulation is carried out in Xilinx ISE 13.1 environment.

The objective of this trial was to document the total fatty acids in Murrah buffaloes milk on commercial farms in Brazil. Data from forty lactating Murrah-crossbred buffaloes were collected on five commercial farms located at Sarapui and Pilar do Sul, Sao Paulo-Brazil. A field survey was done from April to November 2002. In four farms, buffaloes were fed with wet brewers grains (primary concentrate). Only one farm (Farm 4) offered pasture and corn silage. Monthly milk samples were collected and stored at -20ºC until analyzed for fatty acid composition. The fatty acids with the highest percentage in total milk fat were C 16:0 ; C 18:1c9 ; C 18:0 and C 14:0 . The average content observed in C 16:0 varied from 25.4 to 32.5%. Farm 4 (pasture plus corn silage) showed a higher C 16:0 value (32.5%). C 18:1c9 varied from 20.6 to 25.1%, C 14:0 varied from 5.9 to 8.9 % and CLA content (C 18:2c9t11 ) varied from 1.0 to 1.8%. Farm 3 presented higher average of C 18:1c9 (25.1%) and C 18:2c9t11 (1.8%), and lower average of C 14:0 (6.0%). Likewise, unsaturated fatty acids, C 18:1c9 and C 18:2c9t11 were higher on Farm 3. Probably, these results can be due to high CLA intakes derived from wet brewers grain and pasture. Long chain fatty acids varied from 34.2% (Farm 4) to 48.8% (Farm 3). In general, diets based on pasture and corn silage increased the levels of medium chain fatty acids in Murrah buffaloes milk.

Universities are among the oldest known formal organisations, and  they had undergone fundamental changes several times in the last few centuries. Yet, due to economic and societal pressures, their mission, teaching and research methods, as well as management structures and financial models need to be renewed yet again. Systematic prospective analyses can contribute to these efforts by considering the wide-ranging and complex factors, shaping the future of the higher education systems and individual HE organisations. ‘Futures’ (images of the future) are often devised at the level of a single university or at a national level for the overall higher education system. However, the bulk of trends and driving forces are international in their nature and universities operate in broader socio-economic and S&T systems. Hence, futures devised in a multi-level structure would better assist decision-makers and stakeholders. This approach is a demanding one in several respects, but offers several advantages: (i) the potential changes in the social, economic and S&T systems, in which universities are embedded, as well as their impacts on higher education can be considered systematically; (ii) the substantial diversity of higher education systems and individual universities can be taken into account; and (iii) the likely impacts of different policy options can also be analysed. The chapter also considers the major features and benefits of the various forward looking techniques, and concludes that foresight offers specific advantages.

This Minnesota animal health vision document is the culmination of more than a year of research and disciplined examination of the world that is evolving to determine how Minnesota’s industry will be impacted by these changes. It is the first paper of its kind that examines six primary bioscience-based industries individually and simultaneously, so that overlapping opportunities can be identified and leveraged. It is intended to help Minnesota decision makers in all sectors involved in the bioscience-based economy. Through the detailed Strategic Flexibility process that has been adopted, information will be made available to leadership so more clear, confident and coordinated decisions about elements of our state’s economic strategy can be made, and our communities’ participation in these industries enhanced. The process is not intended to pick "winners" or "losers" but to make investments that provide Minnesota with the strongest possible infrastructure to help our companies compete now, and in the future, in the industries of their choosing. The goal of this process is to focus on ensuring that Minnesota remains a strong global leader in the animal health industry and helps to shape the industry’s future.

The European Water Framework Directive poses new challenges to sovereign nations that share river basins. Upstream and downstream countries now must cooperate in developing long-term plans that address policy issues related to water management in the entire river basin. Vision building and strategic planning in (transboundary) river basins are presented as a means to overcome lack of common goals and fragmentation in planning and implementation. Systems analysis is a first step in planning. The definition of system boundaries cannot be limited to the watershed of the river: system boundaries must shift according to the policy issue concerned. These shifting boundaries, and their consequences for the selection and implementation of measures to improve water management, are presented in a student vision for the Scheldt river basin.

Ecosystem-based management is now widely accepted as the standard strategy for achieving sustainable delivery of marine and estuarine ecosystem services. The ubiquity and rate of change in marine ecosystems necessitate incorporating visions of future ecosystem states into ecosystem management strategies. Creating visions of the future enables policy makers to set realistic objectives and targets, and to explore the consequences of potential management decisions on ecosystems under multiple potential scenarios of change. Several classes of futures are used in marine ecosystem management program, and three are highlighted here: visioning, predictive models, and scenario analysis. Each approach is briefly described, and their use in current marine ecosystem management programs in North America is reviewed. In particular, the importance of using scenario analysis to identify and incorporate the influence of exogenous drivers into management strategies is highlighted. Then, some of the perils and promises associated with each approach are described, and a way forward is proposed that incorporates multiple types of future envisioning approaches into management programs. Key contributions of future analyses include highlighting connections and trade-offs among ecosystem components, setting realistic targets, and incorporating exogenous drivers, and their uncertainties, into ecosystem management programs.

The future of human life in the world's river deltas depends on the success of water management. To deal with uncertainties about the future, policymakers in the Netherlands have used scenarios to develop water management strategies for the coastal zone of the Rhine-Meuse delta. In this paper we reflect on six decades of scenario use in the Netherlands, and provide recommendations for future studies. Based on two criteria, 'Decision robustness' and 'Learning success', we conclude that (1) the possibilities for robust decisionmaking increased through a paradigm shift from predicting to exploring futures, but the scenario method is not yet fully exploited for decisionmaking under uncertainty; and (2) the scenarios enabled learning about possible impacts of developments and effectiveness of policy options. New scenario approaches are emerging to deal with the deep uncertainties water managers are currently facing.

The effect of pH and temperature, and inulin use, on the growth and the fatty acid profile of Lactobacillus plantarum strain were evaluated. The best results were obtained at 6.5 pH broth, producing 3.2 g/L of biomass and about 20% of conjugated linoleic acid (CLA) in the cell lipids. Similar growth was observed with 37 and 45ºC, but a low CLA content (10.6%) was achieved at 45°C. In the case of inulin incorporation, a low biomass concentration (1 g/L) and low production of CLA (12.4%) were observed. These results suggest a pH and temperature dependence on CLA production by the microorganism.

Social, natural and cultural systems are changing rapidly, influencing the future of Europe's fresh waters. One of the drivers shaping this future is the implementation of the Water Framework Directive. Participatory scenario development is well-suited to the challenges posed by the WFD to develop a long-term view by involving stakeholders. In this paper we analyse the process and results of a series of stakeholder workshops to develop scenarios at pan-European level. Specifically, we aim at analysing the method and results of combining a backcasting methodology and exploratory scenario development process. Four exploratory scenarios (narrative storylines) were developed, in first instance based on a set of existing European scenarios. Results matched expectations; the process produced stories that are complex, integrated, and rich in detail. During the backcasting exercise, four timelines were constructed, each of which took one exploratory scenario as context. The backcasting process established a strong link with the exploratory scenarios by identifying a large number of obstacles and opportunities in the realisation of those timelines. An analysis across all backcasts yielded a list of 15 robust elements, i.e. elements that are potentially effective in all exploratory scenarios. A stakeholder questionnaire showed that overall there was a widespread satisfaction with both the process and the results. Stakeholders were satisfied with the overall methodology and the exploratory scenarios and somewhat more critical on the backcasting exercise and resulting robust strategies. Above all, we hope to have demonstrated that it is conceptually appealing, methodologically feasible, and practically useful to combine exploratory scenario development and backcasting analysis.

Scenarios are key tools in analyses of global environmental change. Often they consist of quantitative and qualitative components, where the qualitative aspects are expressed in narrative, or storyline, form. Fundamental challenges in scenario development and use include identifying a small set of compelling storylines that span a broad range of policy-relevant futures, documenting that the assumptions embodied in the storylines are internally consistent, and ensuring that the selected storylines are sufficiently comprehensive, that is, that descriptions of important kinds of future developments are not left out. The dominant approach to scenario design for environmental change research has been criticized for lacking sufficient means of ensuring that storylines are internally consistent. A consequence of this shortcoming could be an artificial constraint on the range of plausible futures considered. We demonstrate the application of a more systematic technique for the development of storylines called the cross-impact balance (CIB) method. We perform a case study on the scenarios published in the IPCC Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES), which are widely used. CIB analysis scores scenarios in terms of internal consistency. It can also construct a very large number of scenarios consisting of combinations of assumptions about individual scenario elements and rank these combinations in terms of internal consistency. Using this method, we find that the four principal storylines employed in the SRES scenarios vary widely in internal consistency. One type of storyline involving highly carbon-intensive development is underrepresented in the SRES scenario set. We conclude that systematic techniques like CIB analysis hold promise for improving scenario development in global change research.