Brazilian Economy

O  Grupo  Votorantim  foi  criado  em  1891,na  cidade  paulista  de  Sorocaba(Brasil).  Desde1930,passou  a  concentrar  suas  atividades  no setor  de  bens intermediários  (cimento,  zinco,  alumínio,  produtos  químicos  e  siderúrgicos), expandindo-se  junto  ao  processo  de  industrialização  do  Brasil  e  convertendo-se  no  maior  grupo  privado  da  indústria  nacional.  Todavia,  a  partir  dos  anos 1980 —com a crise da dívida externa —,o modelo de industrialização liderado pelo Estado se perdeu e iniciou-se a desindustrialização do país. Neste artigo, analisam-se as  estratégias  da Votorantim  para  se  adaptar  à  instabilidade econômica  do  Brasil  pós-1980,  utilizando  como  fonte  os  relatórios  anuais  do Grupo e apreendendo as seguintes estratégias: internacionalização, revisão do portfólio e mudanças na gestão do grupo no período de 1980 a 2019.

SAMPAIO, D. P. Desindustrialização e desenvolvimento regional no Brasil 1985-2015. In: MONTEIRO NETO, A.;  CASTRO, C. N; BRANDÃO, C. (org.). Desenvolvimento regional no Brasil: políticas, estratégias e perspectivas. Rio de Janeiro: Ed. Ipea, cap. 12, pp. 369-396, 2017.

In late industrializing countries, there are a few economic examples that demonstrate the emergence and development of global competitiveness based on the creation of technical change and the design of dynamic knowledge networks. The analysis of innovation policies in Brazil offers three relevant examples of how a late industrializing country can develop knowledge networks and a national system of innovation in competitive terms compared to industrialized countries: (1) oil production - Petrobras, (2) the aircraft industry - Embraer, and (3) the agricultural sector - Embrapa. Similarities found in all cases show us how to design better innovation policies.

Sugarcane is one of the most important industries of the Brazilian economy, and its main products are sugar and ethanol. Most of the industrial plants produce both products in an integrated process, in which the sugarcane bagasse is a by-product that can be used as a fuel in the cogeneration system. The bagasse is used as the only fuel of the plant, supplying all energy required for the process, and also producing electricity surplus that may be sold to the grid. In this paper, exergy analysis is used to assess an integrated sugar and ethanol ...

Resumo: O objetivo desse artigo é determinar os impactos da criação da Área de Livre Comércio das Américas (ALCA), a partir de uma desoneração tributária, na economia brasileira. Para isso, foram analisados diversos cenários que contam, além da eliminação das tarifas ao comércio entre os países do continente americano, com redução de 10% dos impostos indiretos que incidem sobre o consumo, sobre os insumos intermediários e sobre a produção brasileira. O modelo do GTAPinGAMS é usado como instrumental analítico, aplicado à versão 6.0 do banco de dados do GTAP. Os resultados indicam que, em todos os cenários de ALCA, a redução dos impostos indiretos em 10% aumentou a competitividade, promoveu o crescimento e o bem-estar do Brasil e elevou a receita tributária. O crescimento da economia variou de 0,17% a 0,31% e os ganhos de bem-estar, medidos pela variação equivalente, atingiram US$ 1,10 bilhão a US$ 2,03 bilhões. Palavras-Chave: integração regional, tributos indiretos, equilíbrio geral, GTAPinGAMS, competitividade setorial. Classificação JEL: F13, F15, Q17, R13, H20.

O trabalho pretende: (1) analisar os conceitos de imperialismo, dependên-cia, burguesia e democracia na teoria do novo-desenvolvimentismo, to-mando a obra de Luiz Carlos Bresser-Pereira como representativa desta es-cola teórica; (2) à luz disto, criticar a abordagem novo-desenvolvimentista. Palavras-chave: imperialismo; dependência; desenvolvimento econômi-co; novo-desenvolvimentismo. Abstract This work intends to (1) analyze the categories of imperialism and dependency in the new-developmentalism theory, taking the work of Luiz Carlos Bresser-Pereira as the most representative of this theoretical approach ; (2) in light of that, the work intends to criticize the new-develo-pmentalist approach.

Brazil and South Africa share similar development challenges. Both have very unequal income distributions, both have a strong resource orientation underpinning their industrial development trajectory, and both have undergone a sharp liberalisation and opening up of their economies in the past decade. At the same time, both countries are attempting to chart a progressive domestic economic path, while being important

This paper studies structural transformation and its implications for productivity growth in the BRIC countries based on a new database that provides trends in value added and employment at a detailed 35-sector level. We find that for China, India and Russia reallocation of labour across sectors is contributing to aggregate productivity growth, whereas in Brazil it is not. However, this result is overturned when a distinction is made between formal and informal activities. Increasing formalization of the Brazilian economy since 2000 appears to be growth-enhancing, while in India the increase in informality after the reforms is growth-reducing.

One of the main concerns about the mechanization process of the sugar cane harvest is its direct and indirect impact over the employment. To study such an impact, it was: a) constructed an interregional input-output model, for the Brazilian economy for 1997, at the level of its 5 macro regions, with specific details for the sugar cane, alcohol, and sugar sectors; b) estimated the employment level, for the sectors in the model, by the qualification level of the workforce, i.e., by years of study (less than 1 year, 1 to 3 years, 4 to 7 years, 8 to 10 years, 11 to 14 years, and greater than 15 years); c) construct 3 possible scenarios for the mechanization process. The results are rather stressing, from the estimated 510,651 people working in the sugar cane harvest in 1997, one has that, depending on the scenario being considered, the total workforce will be reduced somewhere between 243,211 to 316,288 people, mainly in the lower qualification levels and in the Northeast and Southeast regions. This also has an impact over the employment generate indirectly, which is estimated through the use of the interregional input-output model constructed.

Resumo: O presente trabalho tem por objetivo mostrar que o controle do processo inflacionário ao longo da década de 90 foi alcançado, em grande parte, pelo uso extensivo das políticas fiscal, monetária e cambial. Destaca-se, no entanto, que cada uma dessas políticas teve uma importância relativa "mais" significativa em determinados períodos específicos da década, como a política cambial no início do plano real e a política monetária nos anos recentes. Nesse sentido, é possível observar que apesar do brilhantismo e do sucesso incontestável do Plano Real no que tange ao combate do processo inflacionário, o mesmo acarretou graves problemas estruturais à economia brasileira que acabaram culminando na crise de 1999.

Esse artigo objetiva investigar em que medida existem estratégias bancárias diferenciadas na economia brasileira. Com base na concepção pós-keynesiana de preferência pela liquidez distinta por região (DOW, 1993), analisa-se o balanço consolidado das agências bancárias das grandes regiões brasileira. Através da análise de indicadores, construídos a partir do citado balanço, conclui-se que existem evidências a assinalar o fato de o sistema bancário atuar de forma heterogênea no espaço. Além disso, concluímos que este comportamento reforça as desigualdades regionais existentes de desenvolvimento da economia.

The paper aims to investigate on empirical and theoretical grounds the Brazilian exchange rate dynamics under floating exchange rates. The empirical analysis examines the short and long run behavior of exchange rate, interest rate (domestic and foreign) and country risk using econometric techniques such as variance decomposition, Granger causality, cointegration tests, error correction models, and a GARCH model to estimate the exchange rate volatility. The empirical findings suggest that one can argue in favor of a certain degree of endogeneity of the exchange rate and that flexible rates have not been able to insulate the Brazilian economy in the same patterns predicted by the literature due to its own specificities (managed floating with the use of international reserves and domestic interest rates set according to inflation target) and to externally determined variables such as the country risk. Another important outcome is the lack of a closer association of domestic and foreign interest rates since the new exchange regime has been adopted. That is, from January 1999 to May 2004, the US monetary policy has no significant impact on the Brazilian exchange rate dynamics, which has been essentially endogenous primarily when we consider the fiscal dominance expressed by the probability of default.

The purpose of this work is to verify the existence of possible tradeoffs between policies direct to reduce the emissions of greenhouse gases (GHGs) with the ones direct to foster the development of the Brazilian Amazon Region, considering its economic relations with the rest of the country and the international markets. In order to achieve this goal, this paper uses an interregional input-output (I-O) model, estimated for the Brazilian economy for the year of 2004. The I-O model is used to make a comparison between the economical and the environmental relevance of each sector in the Amazon region and the rest of Brazil. This study considers the greenhouse gases emissions not only from the economic activities by itself, but, also for the more important factor of the land-use changes. This is a fact of most importance, given that in 2005, about 60% of the Brazilian GHGs emissions were due to the land-use change in its different biomes. Moreover, in the Brazilian Amazon region, especially in the last decades, the deforestation was linked mainly to economic factors than to policies conducted by the government. The results show that the sectors with the greatest importance in terms of emissions are cattle and soybean production. Also, they are also the most prominent for the region's economic development. This poses a dilemma that needs to be faced not only by Brazil, but also by the developed nations, as the burden of the reduction in the greenhouse gases emission in the Brazilian Amazon region cannot be only put on the poor population of the region!

The authors bring together two strands of the empirical literature and analyze the geography of the regional economic performance of the states of the Brazilian Federation from 1939 to 1998. Using tools from spatial statistics, they examine the spatial dependence of regional per capita income in Brazil during the past six decades. They also examine the role of geography in explaining economic growth patterns using intradistribution dynamic tools based on Markov transition matrices and stochastic kernels in a discrete and a continuous framework. The analyses reveal the existence of two spatial clusters in Brazil, a low-income cluster in the northeast and a high-income cluster in the southeast. Moreover, the spatial pattern of economic growth in Brazilian states cannot be viewed without accounting for spatial spillovers. The authors show that states with relatively rich neighbors have a greater chance of being prosperous.

Resumo: Este artigo investiga os efeitos de choques fiscais na economia brasileira com base no procedimento de identificação agnóstica (Mountford e Uhlig, 2005) para verificar o impacto de choques no consumo e na receita do governo sobre o PIB e a inflação. Este método permite isolar o choque fiscal de outros choques como aqueles advindos do ciclo de negócios e o choque monetário. Os resultados sugerem que em resposta a um aumento inesperado do gasto público: o consumo privado aumenta, o PIB se reduz e a taxa de juros aumenta. Em relação a um choque positivo da receita pública, o PIB e o consumo privado se reduzem. Devido a um choque monetário contracionista, o PIB e o nível de preços respondem negativamente. Por fim, observasse um aumento do gasto do governo em decorrência de um choque de ciclo de negócio indicando que política fiscal no Brasil parece ser pró-cíclica. Palavras Chaves: Política fiscal, Vetor autoregressivo, Métodos Bayesianos, Identificação Agnóstica e Choque fiscal. Códigos do JEL: C32, E60, H20.

Economia da UFF, bolsista da Capes. Carmem Aparecida Feijó-Professora da UFF, bolsista de produtividade do CNPq Resumo Neste texto, recuperando os argumentos de Kaldor e seguidores, analisamos as diferentes fases de crescimento da economia brasileira, mostrando como o setor externo atuou tanto como um promotor de mudanças estruturais como um limitador ao crescimento em fases de baixo grau de liquidez internacional. A questão a que nos propomos lançar luz é sobre qual o potencial de crescimento da economia brasileira nos anos recentes, considerando as transformações ocorridas na estrutura produtiva do setor de transformação industrial.

Attempts to identify key sectors in an economy with input-output models have been a source of considerable debate. in this paper; several old and new approaches to the problem are evaluated with reference to the Brazilian economy using the input+xtput models for 1959, 1970 and 1975. Two alternative approaches are suggested in this paper. The first of these focuses on key coefficients through the identification of fields of influence associated with changes in these coefficients, including the effects of simultaneous changes in more than one coefficient. The second approach decomposes the interindustry transactions into a set (hierarchy) of flows. It is claimed that the flows associated with the higher levels of the hierarchy can be considered as the key flows or most important transactions. These new approaches are compared to earlier techniques to examine the degree to which important changes in the economy could be detected. Journal oj Policy Modeling 11( I ):67-90 ( 1989) 0 Society for Policy Modeling, 1989 67 0161~8938/89/$03.50 'While the framework for a CGE model was prepared (Guilhoto 19%) in the spirit of the ORANI model ol' Australia (Dixon) et al. 1980), the model has yet to be implemented empirically.

This paper deals with interregional trade in the Brazilian Economy, estimating its role on efficiency, international competitiveness and regional inequality. Our modeling encompasses much detail. Firstly, we use a large-scale multi-regional computable general equilibrium (CGE) model of Brazil. The model is bottom-up for Brazil's 27 states. Despite the high level of regional disaggregation, the level of sectoral disaggregation is also high, at 36 sectors. Applying the CGE model in simulation exercises, we explore the impacts of reducing transport costs among Brazilian states, identifying the most relevant links for different economic goals (national growth, production costs and regional inequality). The procedure is similar to the "field of influence" approach in the input-output literature . We find that trade among most developed states have impact on national growth and international competitiveness, but can also increase regional inequality.

Analisa-se a perda de dinamismo do crescimento econômico brasileiro a partir da década de 1980, utilizando a abordagem keynesiana de crescimento sob restrição externa. Resultados empíricos revelaram que a taxa de crescimento no período 1930-2004 foi a compatível com o equilíbrio externo e que o câmbio real e o fluxo de capitais tiveram um papel reduzido na obtenção desse equilíbrio. Mas a perda de dinamismo do crescimento, a partir da década de 1980, pode ser explicada por uma maior perversidade desse equilíbrio, dado o comportamento do fluxo de capitais e do câmbio real. Nos anos 1990, por sua vez, a estratégia de desenvolvimento provocou uma quebra estrutural na elasticidade-renda das importações, fazendo com que o equilíbrio externo resultasse em uma taxa de crescimento mais baixa.

This paper has three original contributions. The …rst is the reconstruction e¤ort of the series of employment and income to allow the creation of a new coincident index for the Brazilian economic activity. The second is the construction of a coincident index of the economic activity for Brazil, and from it, (re) establish a chronology of recessions in the recent past of the Brazilian economy. The coincident index follows the methodology proposed by TCB and it covers the period 1980:1 to 2007:11. The third is the construction and evaluation of many leading indicators of economic activity for Brazil which …lls an important gap in the Brazilian Business Cycles literature.

Este estudo, de caráter exploratório, visou analisar as ações diárias dos profissionais de Inteligência Competitiva, analistas e gestores, no Brasil. Foi desenvolvido através de uma amostra aleatória de 79 empresas entre as 500 maiores do Guia das Maiores e Melhores -Exame 2007, por meio de um questionário estruturado fechado e um roteiro de entrevistas semi-estruturado. Procurou-se identificar o lócus funcional, processos e objetivos das organizações. Os principais resultados indicam que a maioria das empresas acompanham diariamente a atuação dos competidores, que a equipe de coleta é interna em sua grande maioria, que o nome da área recebe nomes diversificados e que parte representativa das unidades está subordinada ao departamento de marketing. O artigo apresenta ainda, uma pesquisa bibliográfica sobre estratégia, vantagem competitiva, fontes de vantagem competitiva; inovação em gestão; metodologia; resultados, limitações e recomendações para estudos futuros. Tendo em vista que o país vive o melhor momento econômico em três décadas, combinando estabilidade, aumento do consumo e da renda e investimentos recordes na produção, o presente estudo levanta questões práticas e importantes, para serem consideradas na utilização de Inteligência Competitiva como suporte à inovação em gestão.

The most important sector of the Brazilian economy is services. Between various activities offered for this sector, is distinguished the commerce and, more specifically, the retail, an activity whose relevance does not elapse only of its enormous economic expression, but also for being the final link of the supply chain, and that for keeping a direct contact with the customers,

Este artigo objetiva avaliar a relação entre liberalização da conta capital, performance econômica e estabilidade macroeconômica no Brasil. Para tanto, além de uma revisão da literatura, o artigo realiza uma avaliação empírica dos efeitos da liberalização financeira no Brasil sobre um conjunto de variáveis macroeconômicas com o uso da metodologia VAR, utilizando, para tanto, dois modelos: um com um índice de jure de liberalização financeira (ILF), e outro com um índice de facto de integração financeira (IIF). Procura-se no primeiro caso avaliar a hipótese de que a liberalização financeira resulta em redução no risco-país e, consequentemente, na taxa de juros doméstica; no segundo caso, avalia-se a hipótese de que a liberalização financeira tem impacto positivo sobre crescimento econômico e a estabilidade macroeconômica vis-à-vis a hipótese dos críticos da liberalização financeira de que esta gera efeitos instabilizadores em países em desenvolvimento.

State exports in Brazil: estimates of price and income elasticities.
This paper analyses the recent performance of Brazilian exports, based on estimates for price and income elasticities of states external sales. After presenting an overview of the national picture, our aim is to check if, by exporting dynamic goods of high value, some states are able to achieve an external position different from Brazili’s. The results indicate that all but one state have inelastic exports with respect to both prices and income.

Downloadable! This paper presents a small-scale structural model to the Brazilian economy with an external block. The nominal exchange rate forecast is based on an uncovered interest rate, which is estimated in monthly terms since the switching of the exchange regime in 1999 ...

The purpose of this work is to verify the existence of possible tradeoffs between policies direct to reduce the emissions of greenhouse gases (GHGs) with the ones direct to foster the development of the Brazilian Amazon Region, considering its economic relations with the rest of the country and the international markets. In order to achieve this goal, this paper uses an interregional input-output (I-O) model, estimated for the Brazilian economy for the year of 2004. The I-O model is used to make a comparison between the economical and the environmental relevance of each sector in the Amazon region and the rest of Brazil. This study considers the greenhouse gases emissions not only from the economic activities by itself, but, also for the more important factor of the land-use changes. This is a fact of most importance, given that in 2005, about 60% of the Brazilian GHGs emissions were due to the land-use change in its different biomes. Moreover, in the Brazilian Amazon region, especially in the last decades, the deforestation was linked mainly to economic factors than to policies conducted by the government. The results show that the sectors with the greatest importance in terms of emissions are cattle and soybean production. Also, they are also the most prominent for the region's economic development. This poses a dilemma that needs to be faced not only by Brazil, but also by the developed nations, as the burden of the reduction in the greenhouse gases emission in the Brazilian Amazon region cannot be only put on the poor population of the region!

Brazilian economy was the most dynamic in terms of growth among developed and developing economies from post-War until 1980, when a severe external constraint interrupted this trend. We propose in this paper a model, based on Kaldor, where capital accumulation, technological gap and long run external constraint are connected. Our hypothesis is that capital accumulation, under certain circumstances, can overcome external constraint if the accumulation effort promotes structural change increasing the importance of sectors more technological-intensive. It is expected that the structural change in this direction will contribute to an increase in the income-elasticity of exports and to a decrease in income-elasticity of imports, resulting in the increase in the growth rate of real product compatible with the balance of payments equilibrium in the long period. The last part of the paper shows that the high investment rate observed in the Brazilian economy from the post-War until the end o...

Economia da UFF, bolsista da Capes. Carmem Aparecida Feijó-Professora da UFF, bolsista de produtividade do CNPq Resumo Neste texto, recuperando os argumentos de Kaldor e seguidores, analisamos as diferentes fases de crescimento da economia brasileira, mostrando como o setor externo atuou tanto como um promotor de mudanças estruturais como um limitador ao crescimento em fases de baixo grau de liquidez internacional. A questão a que nos propomos lançar luz é sobre qual o potencial de crescimento da economia brasileira nos anos recentes, considerando as transformações ocorridas na estrutura produtiva do setor de transformação industrial.

For several reasons the capital goods industry (CGI) is strategic for Brazil. This study aims to analyze this industry’s recent behavior in a period when the Brazilian economy regained momentum. We will evaluate some opportunities for several segments in the Brazilian economy by breaking down investment into several activities while we simultaneously evaluate the Brazilian capital goods industry’s ability to benefi t from these mentioned opportunities. Data from IBGE and MDIC will be used in this study and also from Capital Flow Tables (CFT) and from BNDES’ operations and estimates of future investments.

This paper focuses on two questions. First, how did inequality in the industrial wage structure of Brazil evolve from 1985 to 1995? Second, what is the relationship between these dynamics and economic policy? We display the evolution of wage inequality in Brazil and relate this evolution to changing macroeconomic conditions. Our analysis suggests that there is a strong relation between rising inequality and the restructuring of the Brazilian economy that occurred in the middle 1980's.

Most world city studies focus on where the provision of advanced producer services takes place, but in this study the location of the service clients are also taken into account. Production-service transactions are identiWed as links between 'service city' and 'decision city' (client HQ) and classiWed as intra-city (where a Wrms uses local (same city) services) and inter-city which may be domestic or foreign depending on whether the client uses services in or out of the country. Sampling the leading Wrms in Brazil, 218 transaction links are described and analysed in terms of cities, Wrm sectors, ownership and market. The analyses are used to inform a rereading of gateway city functions that takes into account the concentration/dispersal nexus in economic globalization. Thus, whereas the dominance of Sao Paulo in the Brazilian economy is conWrmed, this is not interpreted as a simple gateway function with this one city 'articulating' the national economy into the world economy. A much more complex situation is revealed with by-passing of the gateway also much in evidence. The conclusion is that this shows concentration and dispersion of economic activity happening simultaneously in Brazil.

The aim of this paper is estimate how important is agriculture and familiar agriculture agribusiness for Brazil and its states. To do so, the GDP for the agribusiness of these complexes is estimated for Brazil and for its 27 states. The estimation is based on an interregional input-output system constructed for the Brazilian economy. The agribusiness takes into consideration the relations between the agriculture production and the other sectors in the economy (inputs for production, industry, transportation, distribution, and commercialization). The importance of the agribusiness can be evidence for it's share of about 30% in the total Brazilian GDP, but regional differences will make this average oscillates between 4% and 79% in the Brazilian states. Another distinction will be made between small familiar production and large scale production that will vary according to the product and the state. Some relation between land distribution and the type of agriculture will also be made.

The blockage of financial asset liquidity in March 1990, known as the Collor Plan - one of the most drastic state interventions in the Brazilian economy ever -, originated in the debate over the failure of previous stabilization policies, especially the heterodox shocks of the Sarney government. This intervention was an attempt to tackle, at the same time, the three