Drafts by José Paulo Guedes Pinto
MedRxiv, 2020
We developed a simple and user-friendly simulator called MD Corona that is based on a multiagent ... more We developed a simple and user-friendly simulator called MD Corona that is based on a multiagent model and describes the transmission dynamics of coronavirus for a given location considering three setting parameters: population density, social-isolation rate, and effective transmission probability. The latter is represented by the Coronavirus Protection Index (CPI)-a measurement of a given territory's vulnerability to the coronavirus that includes characteristics of the health system and socioeconomic development as well as infrastructure. The dynamic model also relies on other real epidemiological parameters. The model is calibrated by using immunity surveys and provides accurate predictions and indications of the different spread dynamic mechanisms. Our simulation studies clearly demonstrate the existence of multiple epidemic curves in the same city due to different vulnerabilities to the virus across regions. And it elucidates the phenomenon of the epidemic slowing despite a reduction in social-distancing policies, understood as a consequence of "local protection bubbles." The simulator can be used for scientific outreach purposes, bringing science closer to the general public in order to raise awareness and increase engagement about the effectiveness of social distancing in reducing the transmissibility of the virus, but also to support effective actions to mitigate the spread of the virus.
medRxiv, 2020
After four months of dealing with the pandemic, the city of Sao Paulo entered a phase of relaxed ... more After four months of dealing with the pandemic, the city of Sao Paulo entered a phase of relaxed social-distancing measures in July 2020, and saw its social isolation rate fall at the same time as the number of cases, deaths, and hospital bed occupation declined. We use a calibrated multi-agent model to describe these dynamics. We assert here that this phenomenon can be understood as the result of local protective bubbles formed in the city's sub-environments at the same time that there was an exhaustion of contagion networks. Both reduce the velocity of the virus's spread, causing temporary reductions in the epidemic curve, albeit in an unstable equilibrium. These local bubbles can burst anytime and anywhere due to the reintroduction of a few infected people at the same time that there is a reduction in non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPI), such as social-distancing practices. It is important to stress that this hypothesis aligns with the dynamics of the virus's spread observed so far, without needing ad hoc suppositions about natural collective immunity thresholds or heterogeneity in the population's transmission rate, which come with the risk of making mistaken predictions that may could lead to the loss of many lives. The safe way to move ahead is to continue doing all we can to avoid new infections until a vaccine is found that properly and safely creates herd immunity.
Revista da Sociedade Brasileira de Economia Política, Sep 2019
Brazilian capitalism traverse from 2015 until today (2019), one of its greatest crisis that occur... more Brazilian capitalism traverse from 2015 until today (2019), one of its greatest crisis that occurs simultaneously in the plans of accumulation, the political scene, and institutions. This paper analyzes the crisis between Dilma Rousseff's impeachment in 2016 and the election victory of Captain Jair Bolsonaro in 2018. It seeks to show how the problems of accumulation-the result of an increasing conflict between capital and labor, of obstacles in the realization of merchandises and of external effects-have grown into a structural crisis due to the State's inability to reverse this trajectory. This Government-level difficulty stems from (i) the economic "consensus of foolishness" of the dominant sectors, (ii) the displacement of the "power center" of the Brazilian state into the hands of the Lava Jato ("Car Wash") federal police operation, and (iii) the loss of legitimacy of institutions. A significant part of this difficulty is the result of the anti-corruption mechanism (relaxation of legal regulation and generation of instability) used by Lava Jato. This mechanism, when set in motion, has generated a war of all against all in the country, in which foreign interests are the biggest beneficiaries so far.
In this article we present the idea of complexity as a new paradigm of science which is in a deve... more In this article we present the idea of complexity as a new paradigm of science which is in a development process. This new paradigm shows the limits of scientific knowledge that is strictly analytical. Also we criticize the scientific reductionism. These criticisms imply that science advanced after recognizing and accepting the contradiction. In light of this we will present Morin's dialogical and criticize it. It would be possible to construct a logic more appropriate to the new science through Hegel's dialectic? At the end we will try to define the complexity positively, the general idea is to question whether there is some approximation of this paradigm with Hegels's presentation.
O objetivo dessa nota vem a ser apresentar a questão do espaço histórico das categorias valor e t... more O objetivo dessa nota vem a ser apresentar a questão do espaço histórico das categorias valor e trabalho abstrato. Isto é feito reinterpretando certos trechos da obra econômica de Marx, em especial O Capital e os Grundrisse. Até o aparecimento do modo de produção capitalista, o valor não existia enquanto tal, pois ele não estava posto historicamente. Uma parte dos bens produzidos na antiguidade greco-romana se tornavam mercadorias e eram trocados por meio do dinheiro de modo regular; porém, durante esse período histórico, o valor se encontrava pressuposto. O mesmo continuou ocorrendo em todo período medieval. Para a dialética – é preciso enfatizar –, posição é determinação. Quando surgiu o capitalismo na época moderna, o valor foi posto objetivamente na realidade social. Pois, só na época moderna se pode pensar com base na categoria de quantidade de trabalho socialmente necessária. Na forma capital, ele se tornou então sujeito do processo mercantil. Entretanto com o desenvolvimento desse modo de produção, ou seja, com o extraordinário aumento da produtividade do trabalho na grande indústria, o valor entra em crise, tornando-se desmedido. A desmedida do valor explica a possibilidade do dinheiro mundial inconversível, o qual está na base da grande crise do capitalismo, ainda em andamento. Argumenta-se que a desmedida do valor produz intrinsecamente a desmedida do capital, especialmente na forma financeira. Há vários sinais de que o capitalismo está se tornando supérfluo para o desenvolvimento da sociedade. Ao contrário da opinião corrente, o socialismo é hoje uma possibilidade efetiva que está pressuposta no capitalismo contemporâneo, pois este perdeu a sua regulação sistêmica interna e se tornou descontrolado.
Papers by José Paulo Guedes Pinto
The aim of this work is to critically analyze the transformations that the capitalist system has ... more The aim of this work is to critically analyze the transformations that the capitalist system has experienced in the relations of production with the emergence of the new information and communication technologies. The presentation will take into account the fact that capital now subordinates production with a new intensity and in a brand new way that is linked to the emergence of knowledge-capital. Supported by Prado's (2005) thesis of the desmeasure of value, this work reapproaches the forms of subsumption of labor to capital (formal, material and real) derived from Karl Marx's Capital, trying to delineate a logical and historical sequence to the genesis of a new form, namely, the intellectual subsumption of labor to capital, which would be typical of a period of post-large-scale industry. Looking to further explain these processes of change, the recording industry is taken as object of study. As it depends mostly on the creative work (because it is knowledge-and innovation-intensive) it has been suffering the effects of the emergence of new technologies in a very negative perspective from capital's point of view, and in a way, perhaps, very positive regarding the production and distribution of goods in an autonomous and independent way. Through case studies and empirical evidence, it strives to show how the discontinuities that are present in the music industry, especially those that emerged in the twenty-first century, changed once and for all the recording industry's traditional business models. At the end it demonstrates that, although today there is an increasing possibility of creating music in an autonomous and independent way, music production is still undertaken by workers who, ultimately, are intellectually subsumed to the capital's relations.
PesquisABC, 2020
Grupo interdisciplinar Ação Covid-19 desenvolve simulador de dispersão do novo Coronavírus e prod... more Grupo interdisciplinar Ação Covid-19 desenvolve simulador de dispersão do novo Coronavírus e produz estudos sobre a disseminação da pandemia em diferentes cidades brasileiras.
CTS em foco (Boletim ESOCITE), 2020
Após um início esperançoso no combate à pandemia no Brasil, com a maioria dos Estados recomendand... more Após um início esperançoso no combate à pandemia no Brasil, com a maioria dos Estados recomendando o distanciamento social e fechando diversos espaços de aglomeração, o país acabou seguindo a rota
errada e a infecção avançou aceleradamente, primeiro nas grandes cidades, em seguida no interior do país. O descrédito do governo federal
nas recomendações com base científica e a consequente ausência de medidas integradas foi a semente da catástrofe. A desigualdade entre os territórios e o tamanho continental do país permitiram que o vírus se propagasse de forma ampla escancarando os pólos extremos da nossa sociedade. Nesse contexto surgiu o grupo interdisciplinar Ação Covid-19 que se dedica ao entendimento de como a desigualdade vem afetando a evolução da pandemia no Brasil. Com a finalidade de avaliar os impactos das políticas de distanciamento social nas curvas epidêmicas do contágio
nós desenvolvemos uma ferramenta (software) que simula a dinâmica de transmissão do coronavírus por meio de um ambiente gráfico programável multiagente.
O objetivo deste trabalho é analisar criticamente as transformações pelas quais o sistema capi-ta... more O objetivo deste trabalho é analisar criticamente as transformações pelas quais o sistema capi-talista vem passando nas relações de produção com a emergência das novas tecnologias de informação e comunicação. A apresentação leva em consideração o fato de que hoje o capital subordina a produção com uma intensidade nova e de um modo novíssimo ligado à emergên-cia do conhecimento-capital. Apoiado na tese da desmedida do valor de Prado (2005), este trabalho retoma as formas de subsunção do trabalho ao capital (formal, material e real) deriva-das d\'O Capital de Karl Marx, procurando delinear uma sequência lógica e histórica para a gênese de uma nova forma, qual seja, a subsunção intelectual do trabalho ao capital, que seria típica de um período de produção pós-grande industrial. Para explicitar mais esses processos de mudança, toma como objeto de estudo a indústria fonográfica. Esta, por depender em última instância do trabalho criativo (uma vez que é intensiva em conhecimento e ino...
O capitalismo brasileiro atravessa, desde 2015 até hoje (2019), uma de suas maiores crises, que o... more O capitalismo brasileiro atravessa, desde 2015 até hoje (2019), uma de suas maiores crises, que ocorre simultaneamente nos planos da acumulação, da cena política e das instituições. Este artigo analisa a crise entre o impeachment de Dilma Rousseff, em 2016, até a vitória eleitoral do capitão Jair Bolsonaro, em 2018. Busca-se evidenciar como os problemas da acumulação – fruto do aumento da luta entre capital e trabalho, de empecilhos na realização das mercadorias e dos efeitos externos – se avolumaram transformando-se numa crise estrutural devido à incapacidade do Estado em reverter essa trajetória. Essa dificuldade estatal decorre (i) do “consenso da insensatez” econômica dos setores dominantes, (ii) do deslocamento do “centro de poder” do Estado brasileiro para as mãos da operação Lava Jato, e (iii) da perda de legitimidade das instituições. Parte significativa dessa dificuldade é fruto do mecanismo de combate à corrupção (flexibilização do regramento legal e geração de instabilidade) utilizado pela Operação Lava Jato. Esse mecanismo, quando posto em movimento, gerou uma guerra de todos contra todos no país, em que os interesses externos são os maiores beneficiados.Brazilian capitalism traverses from 2015 until today (2019) one of its greatest crisis, that occurs simultaneously in the fields of accumulation, political scene and institutions. This paper analyzes the crisis from Dilma Rousseff’s impeachment in 2016 until the victory of Captain Jair Bolsonaro in 2018. It seeks to show how the problems of accumulation – the result of an increasing conflict between capital and labor, of obstacles in the realization of merchandises and of external effects – have grown into a structural crisis due to the state’s inability to reverse this trajectory. This Government-level difficulty stems from (i) the economic “consensus of foolishness” of the dominant sectors, (ii) the displacement of the “power center” of the Brazilian state into the hands of the Lava Jato (“Car Wash”) federal police operation, and (iii) the loss of legitimacy of institutions. A significant part of this difficulty is the result of the anti-corruption mechanism (relaxation of legal regulation and generation of instability) used by Lava Jato. This mechanism, when set in motion, has generated a war of all against all in the country, in which foreign interests are the biggest beneficiaries so far
Argumentum, 2020
The aim of the present paper is to understand the exponential growth of “Uberization” of labor in... more The aim of the present paper is to understand the exponential growth of “Uberization” of labor in Brazil by analyzing the economic crisis and the austerity program putted in practice from 2014. The emergence of Gig Economy and the “Uberization” of labor is a global trend in digital age and Brazil has experienced the exponential growth of these type of labor relations in recent years. Millions of Brazilian workers now have their entire income exclusively from digital platforms without labor rights. However, its only possible to understand this process considering the economic crisis and, as a response of it, the austerity program. The offensive of capital over labor as a response of the profitability crisis penalized the working class and provided the rapid growth of the “Uberization” of labor in Brazil and an alternative for the capital accumulation on the other side.
O presente artigo examina a transformação do modo de produção capitalista que acompanha a expansã... more O presente artigo examina a transformação do modo de produção capitalista que acompanha a expansão do trabalho imaterial como fonte de geração de riqueza efetiva. Essa avaliação é feita no interior da teoria do valor-trabalho e da crítica da economia política. Para tanto, interroga, primeiro, o verdadeiro impacto da informatização na natureza capitalista dos processos produtivos atualmente em andamento, principalmente nos países centrais. Compara, depois, as principais características da indústria taylorista com as características marcantes da indústria pós-taylorista. Ao final, conclui que uma transformação importante do sistema capitalista está em curso: a grande indústria, tal como foi caracterizada por Marx em O Capital, não predomina mais nos países do centro do sistema, pois o que aí prevalece agora é a pós-grande indústria. PALAVRAS-CHAVE: Trabalho imaterial. Taylorismo. Pós-taylorismo. Grande indústria. Pós-grande indústria.
Brazilian capitalism traverse from 2015 until today (2019), one of its greatest crisis that occur... more Brazilian capitalism traverse from 2015 until today (2019), one of its greatest crisis that occurs simultaneously in the plans of accumulation, the political scene, and institutions. This paper analyzes the crisis between Dilma Rousseff's impeachment in 2016 and the election victory of Captain Jair Bolsonaro in 2018. It seeks to show how the problems of accumulation - the result of an increasing conflict between capital and labor, of obstacles in the realization of merchandises and of external effects - have grown into a structural crisis due to the State's inability to reverse this trajectory. This Government-level difficulty stems from (i) the economic "consensus of foolishness" of the dominant sectors, (ii) the displacement of the "power center" of the Brazilian state into the hands of the Lava Jato ("Car Wash") federal police operation, and (iii) the loss of legitimacy of institutions. A significant part of this difficulty is the result of t...
As it is known, Marx's Capital, in order to present and decrypt the logic of reproduction of ... more As it is known, Marx's Capital, in order to present and decrypt the logic of reproduction of capital, states that a commodity is an elementary form of wealth. According to him, it – not the economic being – is the principle of the capitalistic mode of production. To him, the commodity is a social relation form which has two immediate apprehensible determinations, namely, use value and exchange value. It is hereby accepted that Marx, from the beginning, deals with the appearance of such mode of production, that is, the commodity circulation – not something which is usually abstractedly defined as simple commodity production.
This work intends to (1) analyze the categories of imperialism and dependency in the new-developm... more This work intends to (1) analyze the categories of imperialism and dependency in the new-developmentalism theory, taking the work of Luiz Carlos Bresser-Pereira as the most representative of this theoretical approach; (2) in light of that, the work intends to criticize the new-developmentalist approach.
Review of Political Economy, 2021
This article provides new evidence on center–periphery relationships in the pharmaceutical value ... more This article provides new evidence on center–periphery relationships in the pharmaceutical value chains from the new-structuralist perspective. Our contribution examines the foreign insertion of countries into pharmaceutical value chains. It is based on extensive indicators, such as world trade in gross terms, production and employment structure, and also on intensive indicators, such as trade in value-added, price per kilo of pharmaceuticals imported and exported, pharmaceutical industry wage shares, and intellectual property rights’ flows. We show that pharmaceutical value chains are concentrated in regions, whose centers are basically the US in America and Switzerland and Germany in Europe. Moreover, there are several countries from the global peripheries that are weakly integrated into pharmaceutical value chains, such as Brazil, Russia, Saudi Arabia. Finally, some countries, such as Mexico, India, Hungary, Poland, and even China, have undergone a maquiladora process in their ro...
We developed a simple and user-friendly simulator called MD Corona that is based on a multiagent ... more We developed a simple and user-friendly simulator called MD Corona that is based on a multiagent model and describes the transmission dynamics of coronavirus for a given location considering three setting parameters: population density, social-isolation rate, and effective transmission probability. The latter is represented by the Coronavirus Protection Index (CPI) - a measurement of a given territory’s vulnerability to the coronavirus that includes characteristics of the health system and socioeconomic development as well as infrastructure. The dynamic model also relies on other real epidemiological parameters. The model is calibrated by using immunity surveys and provides accurate predictions and indications of the different spread dynamic mechanisms. Our simulation studies clearly demonstrate the existence of multiple epidemic curves in the same city due to different vulnerabilities to the virus across regions. And it elucidates the phenomenon of the epidemic slowing despite a re...
After four months of dealing with the pandemic, the city of São Paulo entered a phase of relaxed ... more After four months of dealing with the pandemic, the city of São Paulo entered a phase of relaxed social-distancing measures in July 2020, and saw its social isolation rate fall at the same time as the number of cases, deaths, and hospital bed occupation declined. We use a calibrated multi-agent model to describe these dynamics. We assert here that this phenomenon can be understood as the result of local protective bubbles formed in the city’s sub-environments at the same time that there was an exhaustion of contagion networks. Both reduce the velocity of the virus’s spread, causing temporary reductions in the epidemic curve, albeit in an unstable equilibrium. These local bubbles can burst anytime and anywhere due to the reintroduction of a few infected people at the same time that there is a reduction in non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPI), such as social-distancing practices. It is important to stress that this hypothesis aligns with the dynamics of the virus’s spread observed s...
Review of African Political Economy, 2017
After two decades of high growth and increased levels of foreign investments, Mozambique continue... more After two decades of high growth and increased levels of foreign investments, Mozambique continues to face serious problems in reducing poverty. This article investigates the characteristics of Brazilian investments and aid to Mozambique and scrutinizes how they relate with the Mozambican growth. Combining the literature on the porosity of Mozambican growth with an analysis of the class dynamics of Brazilian accumulation, this article shows the class fractions that sustained Brazilian 'neodevelopmental' attempt and their capital internationalization to Africa. It empirically details their role in giving form to porosity and in promoting private gains at the expense of social losses.
Carta Internacional, 2015
Desde os anos 1980, no âmbito do que ficou conhecido como Consenso de Washington, os Estados Unid... more Desde os anos 1980, no âmbito do que ficou conhecido como Consenso de Washington, os Estados Unidos, seja através de pressão bilateral seja por uma atuação multilateral no âmbito do GATT/OMC, conseguiu impor um padrão internacional de proteção à propriedade intelectual que beneficia diretamente os seus interesses comerciais. Nos países latino-americanos, depois de uma resistência inicial, os direitos de propriedade intelectual foram aceitos como parte de uma política necessária de modernização econômica que garantiria a esses países uma inserção ativa na então chamada “sociedade do conhecimento”. Partindo desse diagnóstico geral, o presente artigo pretende avaliar um aspecto da inserção dos países latino-americanos na divisão internacional do trabalho, durante o século XXI, sob a ótica particular dos direitos de propriedade intelectual.
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Drafts by José Paulo Guedes Pinto
Papers by José Paulo Guedes Pinto
errada e a infecção avançou aceleradamente, primeiro nas grandes cidades, em seguida no interior do país. O descrédito do governo federal
nas recomendações com base científica e a consequente ausência de medidas integradas foi a semente da catástrofe. A desigualdade entre os territórios e o tamanho continental do país permitiram que o vírus se propagasse de forma ampla escancarando os pólos extremos da nossa sociedade. Nesse contexto surgiu o grupo interdisciplinar Ação Covid-19 que se dedica ao entendimento de como a desigualdade vem afetando a evolução da pandemia no Brasil. Com a finalidade de avaliar os impactos das políticas de distanciamento social nas curvas epidêmicas do contágio
nós desenvolvemos uma ferramenta (software) que simula a dinâmica de transmissão do coronavírus por meio de um ambiente gráfico programável multiagente.
errada e a infecção avançou aceleradamente, primeiro nas grandes cidades, em seguida no interior do país. O descrédito do governo federal
nas recomendações com base científica e a consequente ausência de medidas integradas foi a semente da catástrofe. A desigualdade entre os territórios e o tamanho continental do país permitiram que o vírus se propagasse de forma ampla escancarando os pólos extremos da nossa sociedade. Nesse contexto surgiu o grupo interdisciplinar Ação Covid-19 que se dedica ao entendimento de como a desigualdade vem afetando a evolução da pandemia no Brasil. Com a finalidade de avaliar os impactos das políticas de distanciamento social nas curvas epidêmicas do contágio
nós desenvolvemos uma ferramenta (software) que simula a dinâmica de transmissão do coronavírus por meio de um ambiente gráfico programável multiagente.