Oil and Gas Management

Fire and Explosion Hazardous Properties of Breakers Applied in the Processes of Oil Production Stimulation
Применение в процессах нефтедобычи большого спектра химических реагентов требует изучения их
свойств, которые представляют основную опасность при использовании, транспортировке, хранении и
испытаниях. В статье исследуются пожароопасные и взрывоопасные свойства брейкеров, применяемых в
процессах интенсификации нефтедобычи для деструкции полимерных гелей, использующихся для гидроразрыва пласта. Опасность брейкеров обусловлена сильными окислительными свойствами и интенсивным
самоускоряющимся разложением с выделением газообразных веществ при нагревании. Представленный
материал содержит краткую характеристику брейкеров по химическому составу, свойствам и применению,
приведены результаты испытаний брейкеров с определением показателей пожароопасности, взрывоопасности по чувствительности к удару и оценкой термического разложения. Сделан вывод об обусловленности
пожароопасных свойств брейкеров прежде всего окислительными свойствами пероксидов, входящих в их
состав.
Ключевые слова: пожароопасность химреагентов для нефтяной отрасли, гидравлический разрыв пласта (ГРП), брейкер для гидравлического разрыва пласта, деструктор полимерных гелей, безопасность нефтедобычи, пероксиды в нефтепромысловой химии, повышение нефтеотдачи пластов, лабораторные испытания
нефтепромысловой химии.

Executive Summary
There is a high reliance on the oil and gas by the global economy as a means of fulfilling the demands of energy. The main reason behind the continuous rise in the demand for oil in the world is partly due to robust economic growth in India and China together with uncertainty in the political climate in the Middle East. Kenya’s potential for petroleum production has been attributed to the existing four large basins that are colonized by the sedimentary rocks (a rock believed to be containing oil) that have straddled the country. Petroleum is the chief source of fuel energy used by many people in Kenya. There has been government commitment in support of energy sector development. The oil and gas industry have been factored into the development blueprint for Kenya through the vision 2030.  Management of oil and gas in countries like Kenya, one of the simplest approaches for the recovery of the risk is to work with recovery factor (RF) which is normally gotten from empirical correlations, analytical procedures, and past simulation runs. In dealing with bigger oil fields like the one in Ngamia I, recently discovered by Tullow drilling Company in Turkana, Kenya, higher precision is very vital. In such a case, the recovery rate is very significant and affects the economic evaluation of the oil and gas field

The implementation of the Deregulation Policy Act passed in 2005 allow marketers and importers of petroleum product to set their own prices and bring an end to government of Ghana subsidy on the commodity.  Various filling or gas stations have different selling prices for these products. With about 88 Oil Marketing Companies, and only Goil and Total having 200 and 210 petrol stations respectively. In view of this, customers now have a great deal making a decision as to which filling station to buy from. This paper offers a detailed analysis of some of the challenges faced by consumer in deciding on the filling station to buy from and propose FuelUp;  the design and implementation of an optimal filling station locator.

Based on my extensive project management experience in large scale Oil & Gas and Chemical plants projects and thru study of Project Management Systems of different companies, I’ve developed detailed flowcharts of Project Management which can take Project Management Team from Project Initiation through to FEED & Detailed Engineering, Procurement & contracting, construction and commissioning and handover to Operations with a step by step approach. All the required inputs and outputs of each step are defined along with brief explanation. These flowcharts can be tailored to suit the requirement of individual projects.

In reaction to Russia’s involvement in the conflict in Ukraine, the EU and the USA launched two-pronged sanctions against Russia. The equipment export ban will have limited effect in a 10-year perspective because it targets shale, deep water, and the Arctic, and few such projects are planned to come on stream before 2025. But the effect of financial sanctions is immediate and significant. The expected fall in Russian oil output is linked to the decline in production from existing fields, the substantial investment needed to counter this decline, and the dominant role in the industry of state-controlled Rosneft. This conclusion stems from modelling Russia’s oil production outlook in three scenarios. These encompass a range of possibilities from a 2.5 % fall in Russian oil production by 2018 followed by a recovery at one end, to a more long-term decline leading to 7% lower production by 2025 at the other end. These estimates are conservative and do not fully account for the impact of sanctions on companies like Gazprom Neft and Lukoil.

Product sharing agreements have over the years replaced oil and gas contracting ever since they emerged in the late 1960s. Classical concession contracts were viewed as skewed in favor of the international oil companies (IOC). Concession agreements occur by the government giving concession to prospector and it involves a number of rules governing production being stipulated. The prospector becomes the owner of the resources for a number of years on average 75 years. The government gets revenue right from the start of the agreement and during exploration in the form of a bonus, at the conclusion of the contract and standard bonus. Concession involves bidding rounds where the highest bidder wins the contract. Other forms of income emanate from concession rentals and fees from acreage or per kilometer as some of the IOC do not explore instead resale their concession (Bindemann 1999).

This article presents results from the first statistically significant study of cost escalation in transportation infrastructure projects. Based on a sample of 258 transportation infrastructure projects worth US$90 billion and representing different project types, geographical regions, and historical periods, it is found with overwhelming statistical significance that the cost estimates used to decide whether such projects should be built are highly and systematically misleading. Underestimation cannot be explained by error and is best explained by strategic misrepresentation, that is, lying. The policy implications are clear: legislators, administrators, investors, media representatives, and members of the public who value honest numbers should not trust cost estimates and cost-benefit analyses produced by project promoters and their analysts.

Employees today are different. They are not the ones who do not have good opportunities, especially, experienced and talented ones. As soon as they feel dissatisfied with the current employer or the job due to lack of advancement opportunities, salary and remuneration and others, they switch over to the next. The result is that employers lose their invested resources to their competitors, corporate memory is lost, employee-customer relationships are strained and more over the moral of existing staff goes down. It is therefore very important that employers retain their employees, especially the good and experienced ones. Employee retention is a process in which employees are encouraged to remain with the organization for the maximum period of time or until the completion of a particular project. This study looks at the retention practices in Oil & Gas Sector, from the point of view of its employees and what role retention plays in their job performance. The study confirms that lack of advancement opportunities, work-life balance, lack of reward and recognition and salary and remuneration were more common reasons for departure among all employees. Retaining top talent is a primary concern for many organizations today and this study recommends that retention strategies should be aimed at retaining highly skilled personnel and at the same time building up under-performers. Feedback on employee performance is vital to building confidence in the retention practices of the Oil & Gas Sectors. In addition, employee value proposition as enshrined in the vision statement of the Oil & Gas Sectors must be upheld while management should be flexible in terms of work-life balance. This motivation of employees produces a culture of commitment to the objectives of the organization.

Stakeholders’ concern about how energy activities pollute the environment has increased.  Despite how popular the concept of environmental sustainability has become in developing countries, environmental pollution control measures have not successfully protected the environment. The study probed how the regulation of renewable energy could achieve a balance between economic needs and environmental concerns in Nigeria. The claim of the dissertation was that positioning Nigerian energy policies, laws, and regulations to encourage the use of renewable resources for the production of energy is essential for ensuring environmental sustainability. The specific objectives of the study included: showing that environmental sustainability could only be achieved by regulating the energy sector of countries; showing how laws regulating non-energy sectors could contribute to promoting environmental sustainability; and showing that technology-specific renewable energy support mechanisms or strategies have been most effective and efficient, and that production-based support mechanisms or strategies are better for the development of renewable energy projects than investment-based support systems
Compared to previous research, this study was novel because it evaluated specific measures by which law, in order to achieve environmental sustainability, could introduce renewable resources into the Nigerian energy stream predominantly dominated by crude oil. The study discussed how suitable these strategies are to the peculiar conditions of Nigeria.
The study was analytical, relying on laws, policies, statistics and facts; it was also comparative as it analysed the Nigerian situation vis-à-vis that of the fastest growing countries of the global south: China, India, and Brazil. To justify the claim, it relied on primary sources such as statutes and treaties, and secondary sources such as books and articles. 
The study discovered that Nigeria’s economy is crude oil dependent, making environmental pollution control difficult. Most energy laws in Nigeria do not sufficiently protect the environment, and this causes environmental problems.  The study concluded that, in order to achieve environmental sustainability, Nigeria should introduce renewable sources into her energy mix through strategies that discourage carbon energy.

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Megaproject Planning and Management: Essential Readings contains the seminal articles from the growing body of research on megaproject planning and management along with an original introduction by the editor, Bent Flyvbjerg. The leading and most cited authority in the field, Flyvbjerg has used crowdsourcing and 25 years of experience to cherry-pick from several hundred articles and books the writings that define the field. This volume will be an indispensable source for those wishing to speak with authority about how megaprojects are prepared, delivered, and fought over. The target audience is students, academics, practitioners, and media pundits alike, as well as communities affected by megaprojects.

From its early past as an unwanted energy source, natural gas has now rapidly risen to become the preeminent energy resource of the 21st century. It currently accounts for about 25 per cent of world energy demand. One of the factors responsible for the global rapid growth of demand for natural gas is its environmentally benign characteristic, which has led to its need for power generation and other activities.

Nigeria is best viewed as a gas province, with a drop of oil. It has an estimated 187 trillion cubic feet of proven natural gas reserves, the 8th largest in the world. Abundant gas reserves exceed foreseeable needs of the domestic, regional and export markets. However, for a very long period, Nigeria flared a vast majority of its natural gas. While this flared gas has adverse environmental effects and is also a loss of revenue for the government in the form of export revenue receipts, the inability to utilize its natural gas resource also has other negative effects. For instance, this resource could have been channeled to end the country’s power outages and high unemployment rate (by encouraging the proliferation of gas based industries), whilst in the process reverse its citizens declining standard of living.

With a belated realization of the foregoing, the Nigerian government currently has in place, a policy to harness its natural gas for domestic uses as well as for export revenues. Additionally, with the knowledge that the export market holds more attraction to gas producers than the domestic market, it further through regulation, placed a domestic gas supply obligation on all gas producers in the country. However, while the policy has been successful in creating an in-country ‘demand’ for gas, it has not been effective in bridging the ‘supply’ gap that currently exist in the country, due to gas producers’ inclination towards expanding LNG exports to the detriment of the domestic market.

It is on this basis that this paper seeks to critically evaluate the Nigerian gas policy, with a view to distilling the reasons why gas producers are fragrantly violating the domestic gas supply obligation. The paper will further suggest additional measures that can be used not only to strengthen the domestic gas supply obligation, but also to ensure a right balance is struck between the LNG export industry and the long-term energy needs of the domestic gas market.

Back cover text: Megaprojects and Risk provides the first detailed examination of the phenomenon of megaprojects. It is a fascinating account of how the promoters of multi-billion dollar megaprojects systematically and self-servingly misinform parliaments, the public and the media in order to get projects approved and built. It shows, in unusual depth, how the formula for approval is an unhealthy cocktail of underestimated costs, overestimated revenues, undervalued environmental impacts and overvalued economic development effects. This results in projects that are extremely risky, but where the risk is concealed from MPs, taxpayers and investors. The authors not only explore the problems but also suggest practical solutions drawing on theory, experience and hard, scientific evidence from the several hundred projects in twenty nations and five continents that illustrate the book. Accessibly written, it will be the standard reference for students, scholars, planners, economists, auditors, politicians and interested citizens for many years to come.

The article first describes characteristics of major infrastructure projects. Second, it documents a much neglected topic in economics: that ex ante estimates of costs and benefits are often very different from actual ex post costs and benefits. For large infrastructure projects the consequences are cost overruns, benefit shortfalls, and the systematic underestimation of risks. Third, implications for cost–benefit analysis are described, including that such analysis is not to be trusted for major infrastructure projects. Fourth, the article uncovers the causes of this state of affairs in terms of perverse incentives that encourage promoters to underestimate costs and overestimate benefits in the business cases for their projects. But the projects that are made to look best on paper are the projects that amass the highest cost overruns and benefit shortfalls in reality. The article depicts this situation as ‘survival of the unfittest’. Fifth, the article sets out to explain how the problem may be solved, with a view to arriving at more efficient and more democratic projects, and avoiding the scandals that often accompany major infrastructure investments. Finally, the article identifies current trends in major infrastructure development. It is argued that a rapid increase in stimulus spending, combined with more investments in emerging economies, combined with more spending on information technology is catapulting infrastructure investment from the frying pan into the fire.

This research evaluates the concept of corporate social responsibility as a strategy between host government and multinational oil and gas firms operating within the Niger Delta region. Due to the facts that most multinational oil and gas firms operating within the region has failed to attend to the social welfare of the indigenes within the region. This has led to underdevelopment despite producing a large volume of the natural resources within the country. The general exploitation and exploration from multinationals within the Niger Delta region has led to deforestation, poor climatic conditions due to gas flare and other activities from the oil and gas multinationals. The lack of imposing stiff penalties and also enforcing the multinationals to adhere to the global standard of operation has resulted in this unfortunate environmental conditions. The methods used in this research includes qualitative data analysis with both secondary and primary data collated though conducting surveys within the region and semi-structured interviews with two personnel’s currently working with the multinationals operating in the region. Respondents from the survey were collated within the nine Niger Delta geopolitical states to acquire different views and also extrapolate this views to the general public within the region. From the survey conducted, the strategies used in implementing CSR in the region are not effective and this strategies need to be modified. Most respondent are concerned with sustaining their environment and the issue of environmental sustainability should be paramount to the multinational firms within the region. With the right strategy in place, the host community can work harmoniously with the foreign multinationals operating in the region.

This research aims to know the analysis of the system of cost recovery in the same employment contract management of oil and gas. The object of this research is the cost of cost recovery and analysis of the research unit is a State-owned enterprise PT Pertamina EP located in Jakarta. The research was based on the existence of a phenomenon in the background on the unit of analysis i.e. categorization costs on cost recovery. This research was conducted against a single respondent, using a qualitative approach, and data analysis used are descriptive analysis. The results of this study indicate that by doing the categorization costs cost recovery in accordance with the appropriate regulations of the Government of the need for improvements and better policies in order to facilitate the performance of the Government and the KKKS (Kontrak Kerja Sama Kontraktor).

As megaprojects have become ubiquitous, their real benefits and costs have come under increased scrutiny. We interviewed Bent Flyvbjerg, who has extensively studied megaproject development. Flyvbjerg has found systematic problems in the development process: by intentionally misrepresenting information and deliberately disregarding risks, proponents instigate projects that result in fewer benefits and higher costs than promised.

This empirical research explores local skill capacity gap in the petroleum industry in Ghana
using a mixed method approach to study four public organisations. Matched samples of
employees (226) were surveyed, while HR directors (9) were purposively sampled and
interviewed. The findings suggest a wide local skill gap. Originality, this is one of the very few
studies to explore the shortcomings of local skill capacity in public sector organisation.
Research implications, more matched-sample studies are necessary to understand IOC’s local
skill capacity further. Practically, the study is of significance to the policymakers. The main
contribution of the research amongst others is to conceptualise the concept of HRM in Ghana’s
context.

Corruption is a complex and multidimensional issue and has been commonly associated as the main obstacles to sustainable economic, political and social development. The efforts to tackle and manage corruption has been the global concerned since the last two decades with the adoption of international and transnational law such as UNCAC, FCPA and UKBA and implementation of robust anti-corruption efforts. However, only a few successes resulted from the countries that severely plagued by corruption whereas the majority remained to have the same level. Several studies pointed out that the majority of anti-corruption efforts that based on principal-agent theory has not been effective in addressing the issues and argues that collective action theory might provide a better solution, particularly for developing countries where corruption are systemic. The case study of corruption in Indonesia and its oil and gas sector, including its anti-corruption efforts, suggested that both theories have its own strength and flaw and cannot holistically tackle and manage the corruption problems by itself. Therefore, combining both theories in formulating anti-corruption strategies may provide a valuable insight and better solutions to address the problems. The adoption of EITI and integrity pact in the oil and gas industry have demonstrated positive contribution of the combination of both theories.

The Supplementary Green Book Guidance on Optimism Bias (HM Treasury 2003) with reference to the Review of Large Public Procurement in the UK (Mott MacDonald 2002) notes that there is a demonstrated, systematic, tendency for project appraisers to be overly optimistic and that to redress this tendency appraisers should make explicit, empirically based adjustments to the estimates of a project’s costs, benefits, and duration. HM Treasury recommends that these adjustments be based on data from past projects or similar projects elsewhere, and adjusted for the unique characteristics of the project in hand. In the absence of a more specific evidence base, HM Treasury has encouraged departments to collect data to inform future estimates of optimism, and in the meantime use the best available data. In response to this, the Department for Transport (henceforth DfT), has contracted Bent Flyvbjerg in association with COWI to undertake the consultancy assignment "Procedures for dealing with Optimism Bias in Transport Planning". The present Guidance Document is the result of this assignment.

"Over budget, over time, over and over again" appears to be an appropriate slogan for large, complex infrastructure projects. This article explains why cost, benefits, and time forecasts for such projects are systematically over-optimistic in the planning phase. The underlying reasons for forecasting errors are grouped into three categories: delusions or honest mistakes; deceptions or strategic manipulation of information or processes; or bad luck. Delusion and deception have each been addressed in the management literature before, but here they are jointly considered for the first time. They are specifically applied to infrastructure problems in a manner that allows both academics and practitioners to understand and implement the suggested corrective procedures. The article provides a framework for analyzing the relative explanatory power of delusion and deception. It also suggests a simplified framework for analyzing the complex principal-agent relationships that are involved in the approval and construction of large infrastructure projects, which can be used to improve forecasts. Finally, the article illustrates reference class forecasting, an outside view de-biasing technique that has proven successful in overcoming both delusion and deception in private and public investment decisions.

The chapter discusses the development prospects of the major gas projects of the Black Sea Region, planned to create European outlets for the gas producers of the Caspian Basin. The political and economic problems that beset Nabucco's progress, as well as its recent advances, receive extended attention. Its rival, the South Stream project, is debunked as a political gambit, politically operated by Moscow to undermine Nabucco and bring the transit states into its charge. The analysis is carried out against the background of a global energy environment characterized by price volatility and a gas glut. Our overall framework is geopolitical throughout.

This article presents results from the first statistically significant study of traffic forecasts in transportation infrastructure projects. The sample used is the largest of its kind, covering 210 projects in 14 nations worth U.S.$59 billion. The study shows with very high statistical significance that forecasters generally do a poor job of estimating the demand for transportation infrastructure projects. For 9 out of 10 rail projects, passenger forecasts are overestimated; the average overestimation is 106%. For half of all road projects, the difference between actual and forecasted traffic is more than ±20%. The result is substantial financial risks, which are typically ignored or downplayed by planners and decision makers to the detriment of social and economic welfare. Our data also show that forecasts have not become more accurate over the 30-year period studied, despite claims to the contrary by forecasters. The causes of inaccuracy in forecasts are different for rail and road projects, with political causes playing a larger role for rail than for road. The cure is transparency, accountability, and new forecasting methods. The challenge is to change the governance structures for forecasting and project development. Our article shows how planners may help achieve this.

This reference work provides some insights on the salient aspects of the economics of energy supply. It explores: the business and regulatory dynamics in the energy sector and their impact on energy supply; the economic and financial analysis of energy projects and how they impact on investment decisions; the economics of fossil fuels and the factors influencing crude oil prices; and the economics of renewables and their growing importance for the future of energy.

Do different types of megaprojects have different cost overruns? This apparently simple question is at the heart of research at the University of Oxford aimed at understanding the characteristics of megaprojects, particularly in terms of how they are established, run and concluded. In this study, we set out to investigate cost overruns in the Olympic Games. To do so, we examined the costs of the Games over half a century, including both summer and winter Olympics. We looked at the evolution of final reported costs and compared these to the costs established in the Games bids, submitted to the International Olympic Committee (IOC) up to seven years before the Games occurred. In so doing we established the largest dataset of its kind, and documented for the first time in a consistent fashion the costs and cost overruns for the Olympic Games, from 1960 to 2012. We discovered that the Games stand out in two distinct ways compared to other megaprojects: (1) The Games overrun with 100 per cent consistency. No other type of megaproject is this consistent regarding cost overrun. Other project types are typically on budget from time to time, but not the Olympics. (2) With an average cost overrun in real terms of 179 per cent – and 324 per cent in nominal terms – overruns in the Games have historically been significantly larger than for other types of megaprojects, including infrastructure, construction, ICT, and dams. The data thus show that for a city and nation to decide to host the Olympic Games is to take on one of the most financially risky type of megaproject that exists, something that many cities and nations have learned to their peril. For the London 2012 Games, we find that: (1) With sports-related real costs currently estimated at USD14.8 billion, London is on track to become the most costly Olympics ever. (2) With a projected cost overrun of 101 per cent in real terms, overrun for London is below the historical average for the Games, but not significantly so. (3) The London cost overrun is, however, significantly higher than overruns for recent Games since 1999. London therefore is reversing a positive trend of falling cost overruns for the Games.

As megaprojects have become ubiquitous, their real benefits and costs have come under increased scrutiny. We interviewed Bent Flyvbjerg, who has extensively studied megaproject development. Flyvbjerg has found systematic problems in the development process: by intentionally misrepresenting information and deliberately disregarding risks, proponents instigate projects that result in fewer benefits and higher costs than promised.

In Russia, civil society engagement with the petroleum sector is surprisingly rich and varied for a country that is ranked low on most democracy-related indicators. This chapter finds that there is a lively and varied public debate, with business associations, research institutes, independent experts, indigenous organizations and the few surviving independent media actively and often competently analysing and commenting on a broad range of issues related to the oil and gas sector. Russians were early users of social media, which occasionally also function as a platform for discussion of petroleum policy issues. However, the real impact of civil society on decision-making and policy formulation in the petroleum sector is not as great as the diversity of actors and discussion might imply. One key reason is the tight government control over mainstream media outlets. The situation for free speech and civil society worsened steadily from around 2004 to 2016. As in neighbouring Kazakhstan, the Russian population puts a high premium on stability over freedom. While a central concern in this book is whether the media and civil society have any influence on the petroleum sector, in Russia the paradoxical situation is that the relationship is often reversed: the gas company Gazprom, rather than another organizational vehicle, is used by the government to control key mass media; and the oil company Yukos played a central role in promoting civil society until its main owner Mikhail Khodorkovskiy was arrested and the company was carved up.

The extractive sector encompasses various processes that involve the extraction of raw materials and their refinement into finer products to be used by consumers. It consists of operations that remove metals, minerals and aggregates from the earth for example oil and gas extraction, mining, dredging and quarrying.  Some of the extractives include energy (oil, gas and coal), minerals and metals.  In 2010, Africa’s oil production represented 14.6% of the world’s total production of oil. A number of discoveries were made back in 2013 in East Africa with Kenya having new discoveries in Turkana, Marsabit, Lamu, Kwale, Kitui, and Nyakach.  In Kenya, natural resources which are inclusive of minerals make up a good sum in the total revenue for the country.  Kenya produces a variety of minerals which include gold, limestone, gemstone, salt, zinc, diatomite, soda ash, fluorspar, coal, manganese among others. There are reportedly sprouting extraction sites in Kenya as different minerals are continually discovered. It is worth noting that these extractions take place mostly from beneath the land of poor individuals and communities thereby increasing their expectations of betterment in life conditions. The question that begs however is whether and to what extent the government is ready and willing to meet the expectations of the local communities.

Back cover text: This book aims to enlarge the understanding of decision-making on mega-projects and suggest recommendations for a more effective, efficient and democratic approach. Authors from different scientific disciplines address various aspects of the decision-making process, such as management characteristics and cost-benefit analysis, planning and innovation and competition and institutions. The subject matter is highly diverse, but certain questions remain at the forefront. For example, how do we deal with protracted preparation processes, how do we tackle risks and uncertainties, and how can we best divide the risks and responsibilities among the private and public players throughout the different phases of the project? - Presenting a state-of-the-art overview, based on experiences and visions of authors from Europe and North America, this unique book will be of interest to practitioners of large-scale project management, politicians, public officials and private organisations involved in mega-project decision-making. It will also appeal to researchers, consultants and students dealing with substantial engineering projects, complex systems, project management and transport infrastructure.

This paper focuses on problems and their causes and cures in policy and planning for large infrastructure projects. First, it identifies as the main problem in major infrastructure development pervasive misinformation about the costs, benefits, and risks involved. A consequence of misinformation is massive cost overruns, benefit shortfalls, and waste. Second, the paper explores the causes of misinformation and finds that political-economic explanations best account for the available evidence: planners and promoters deliberately misrepresent costs, benefits, and risks in order to increase the likelihood that it is their projects, and not the competition's, that gain approval and funding. This results in the "survival of the unfittest," where often it is not the best projects that are built, but the most misrepresented ones. Finally, the paper presents measures for reforming policy and planning for large infrastructure projects, with a focus on better planning methods and changed governance structures, the latter being more important.

Risk, including economic risk, is increasingly a concern for public policy and management. The possibility of dealing effectively with risk is hampered, however, by lack of a sound empirical basis for risk assessment and management. This article demonstrates the general point for cost and demand risks in urban rail projects. The article presents empirical evidence that allow valid economic risk assessment and management of urban rail projects, including benchmarking of individual or groups of projects. Benchmarking of the Copenhagen Metro is presented as a case in point. The approach developed is proposed as a model for other types of policies and projects in order to improve economic and financial risk assessment and management in policy and planning.

Resource nationalism equates to increased national control of extractive resources with the more equitable distribution of their benefits.  It emanates from the general duty of the government to improve social services and enhance economic development. This duty of the government can only be realized through collection of as much revenue as possible from existing sources. The extractive sector is a major source of revenue to the government. The benefits that are realized from dealings in natural resources including oil and gas go a long way in elevating the economy of the host country. However, current debates surround the area of the delicate balance between drawing as much revenues from the sector for national development and encouraging the concept of local content which in this context will be defined as promoting the wellbeing of the affected local communities (communities on whose land petroleum operations are undertaken). In Kenya for example, the existing and anticipated framework leans towards resource nationalism, an aspect which I criticize in this work for failing to uphold constitutional guidelines  as regards sharing of benefits proceeding from natural resources.

At the time of partition the total petroleum products requirement of Pakistan (both East and West) was 0.4 million tones and principally three foreign petroleum companies were marketing them namely Burmah Shell (British), Standard Vacuum Oil Company (American, which in 1962 became ESSO) and Caltex (American). Burmah Oil Company, Shell Petroleum and Attock Oil Company, all foreign companies, were principally engaged in oil and gas exploration although Burmah Oil Company also used to do some marketing but through Burmah Shell. Attock Oil was also in refining since it had discovered oil in Potohar and established a small refinery at Morgah near Rawalpindi under the name of Attock Refinery Ltd., to process the crude discovered by it.

Out-of-control information technology (IT) projects have ended the careers of top managers, such as EADS CEO Noël Forgeard and Levi Strauss’ CIO David Bergen. Moreover, IT projects have brought down whole companies, like Kmart in the US and Auto Windscreen in the UK. Software and other IT is now such an integral part of most business processes and products that CEOs must know their IT risks, which are typically substantial – and overlooked. The analysis of a sample of 1,471 IT projects showed that the average cost overrun was 27% — but that figure masks a far more alarming “fat tail” risk.  Fully one in six of the projects in the sample was a Black Swan, with a cost overrun of 200%, on average, and a schedule overrun of almost 70%. This highlights the true pitfall of IT change initiatives: It’s not that they’re particularly prone to high cost overruns on average – it is that there are a disproportionate number of Black Swans. By focusing on averages instead of the more damaging outliers, most managers and consultants have been missing the real risk in doing IT. In conclusion, the article outlines ideas as to what can be done to avoid Black Swans.