Offensive Realism

The interpretation of Chinese foreign policy is crucial in determining other state policies towards Beijing. The 2013 announcement of the ‘One Belt, One Road’ (OBOR) initiatives is one such development which has stimulated a debate regarding the Chinese Communist Party’s underlying motivations. This study argues that a theoretical position based solely on structural determinism yields a deficient and shallow reading of Beijing’s fundamental objectives concerning the OBOR initiatives. Offensive realists interpret China’s plan as an explicit challenge to the US-led international order, and thus recommend that the country’s rising power and influence should be contained (Mearsheimer, 2001; 2006). This myopic stance excludes the powerful internal drivers behind the inception of OBOR and consequently has the potential to contribute to regional and global instability. Utilizing a Neoclassical Realist framework, three intervening variables are highlighted as critical contributions to the foundation of OBOR– strategic culture, state-society relations, and domestic institutions.

The paper ultimately posits that the intrinsic link constructed between Asia’s development and that of China’s own development aims to develop a 21st century regional neo-tributary system, whereby China as the benevolent ‘core’ has adapted the ancient structure and augmented it with modern institutions, such as the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank. This hybrid format is hence fit for purpose within the current Westphalian system and can act as a vehicle for cultivating China’s soft power. As a consequence of the vital contribution of these three intervening variables and the overwhelming deficit of continental infrastructure funding, OBOR does not inevitably constitute an explicit balancing mechanism against the United States. This alternative reading thus allows the consideration of alternative responding strategies which may help avoid the Thucydides Trap.

Keywords: Chinese foreign policy, rising power, OBOR, US, offensive realism, neoclassical realism

Resumen: el estudio presente trata de dilucidar si la política exterior de Rusia responde a un modelo de neorrealismo ofensivo o defensivo. Con tal objeto se ha establecido un marco teórico comparativo entre ambas escuelas de las Relaciones Internacionales, incluyendo parámetros cualitativos diferenciadores. Así mismo, el análisis de datos se desarrolla de acuerdo con una metodología basada en un estudio de caso focalizado en la historia reciente de Rusia y en la guerra de Ucrania, y en tres variables: ideología, geopolítica y cultura. La actitud competitiva en el espacio exsoviético y la ruptura del statu quo y el uso de la fuerza en Ucrania mostrarían una tendencia ofensiva

Abstract: the present research tries to determine if Russia's foreign policy responds to a model of offensive or defensive realism. To this end, a theoretical framework has been established between the two schools of International Relations, including qualitative and parameters to differentiate. Likewise, the data analysis is developed according to a methodology based on a case study focused on the recent history of Russia and the war in Ukraine, and on three variables: ideology, geopolitics and culture. The competitive attitude in the ex-Soviet space and the rupture of the status quo and the use of the force in the Ukraine would show an offensive tendency.

Importance of realist thinking in international relations is unquestionable. In this paper I claim that realism undoubtedly has significant explaining power in the 21st century too. To prove this, I analyze the recent Ukraine crisis. I claim that the outbreak of the military conflict is rooted in the structure of international system and its features made Russia to act aggressively. To argue for this view, I use the analytical framework of offensive realism. Besides that I also invoke defensive realist and neoclassical realist ideas to make a comparison and a supplement to the offensive realist way of thinking.

Penelitian ini berupaya untuk menjelaskan sebuah fenomena hubungan internasional yang tergambar dalam rivalitas antar aktor, yaitu Rusia dan Uni Eropa, yang dipicu oleh konflik antar aktor lainnya, yaitu konflik Rusia dan Ukraina yang berdampak pada upaya aneksasi Rusia terhadap wilayah Krimea.
Berawal dari konflik yang terjadi antara Rusia dan Ukraina pada tahun 2014, Rusia melakukan upaya aneksasi terhadap wilayah Krimea yang merupakan provinsi paling Selatan Ukraina ditengah konflik internal Ukraina yang sedang memanas. Upaya aneksasi tersebut memancing kekhawatiran bagi Uni Eropa selaku organisasi kawasan yang juga sedang melakukan ekspansi kerjasama dan kemungkinan keanggotaan terhadap Ukraina. Fenomena tersebut dapat dijelaskan sebagai aksi – reaksi yang terjadi antara Rusia dan Uni Eropa. Rusia merasa terancam dengan kedekatan Ukraina terhadap Uni Eropa, terlebih lagi jika Ukraina menjadi anggota Uni Eropa. Begitu juga Uni Eropa yang merasa terintimidasi dengan sikap Rusia yang sangat memengaruhi perilaku pengambilan keputusan Ukraina.
Dengan metode kualitatif penelitian ini berupaya untuk mengkonstruksi dan memahami realitas dengan memperhatikan proses dan peristiwa rivalitas Rusia dan Uni Eropa yang di picu oleh upaya aneksasi Rusia terhadap Krimea sebagai fenomena hubungan internasional dan ditinjau melalui disiplin keilmuwan hubungan internasional.
Penelitian ini menggunakan paradigma neorealisme sebagai kerangka dasar berfikir penulisan secara ilmiah untuk membuktikan secara teoretis dan empiris bahwa fenomena yang terjadi merupakan bukti dari dunia yang anarkis dimana masing-masing aktor berupaya untuk memaksimalisasi powernya (Power Maximize). Dalam kasus ini Rusia dan Uni Eropa sebagai poros kekuatan di kawasan saling bersitegang (rivalry) yang berakar dari konflik internal Ukraina dan aneksasi Rusia terhadap wilayah Krimea. Penelitian ini meyakini bahwa fenomena tersebut mengindikasikan bahwa rivalitas yang terjadi merupakan cerminan dari interaksi antar aktor dalam mempertahankan, mendapatkan dan menyeimbangkan power (Balance of Power). Di sisi lain, penelitian ini juga meyakini aneksasi yang di lakukan Rusia terhadap Krimea dan pembelaan Uni Eropa terhadap Ukraina membuktikan bahwa negara yang memiliki relativitas power (Power Relativity) berlebih, baik secara fisik maupun laten, selalu berupaya menjadi hegemon di tingkat kawasan (Regional Hegemony).

Kata Kunci: Kebijakan Ofensif, Rivalitas Rusia – Uni Eropa, Aneksasi, Power Maximize, Power Relativity, Balance of Power, Regional Hegemony.

Sexual harassment legal liability has been one of the momentous legal outcomes of the 1964 Civil Rights Act. This seminal civil rights law in Title VII governing employment expressly prohibits discrimination based on sex (that is, gender). Two areas the courts have defined as sexual harassment have been quid pro quo (meaning “this for that”) and hostile working environment. Quid pro quo claims take the form of “broken promises”, “favors”, or “threats” promised by male superiors to female subordinates in exchange for sexual favors or relationships. Hostile environment means any hostile, offensive, or intimidating action or environmental factor that would lead to the inability of the employee to work in a non-threatening atmosphere. This article examines the second type of sexual harassment cases – hostile environment. This article specifically focuses on certain physical aspects of perceived sexual harassment conduct, such as kissing, hugging, and touching, which in some cultures can be deemed as culturally and ethically appropriate but nonetheless can be perceived as hostile, offensive, abusive, intimidating, and threatening under the law. The authors present examples of socially acceptable behaviors around the world, analyze the legal ramifications, ethical implications, and cultural nuances, and then provide appropriate recommendations for business managers.

This thesis assesses the geopolitical structure and dynamic of the regional system East Asia under the framework of offensive realism, and provides a macro- to micro-level analysis of the impact of geography on great power behaviour, defence policy, and military acquisitioning. Assessing military strategy and acquisition under geographical aspects fills a gap in the theoretical body of offensive realism, since the theory does not sufficiently explain the role of landpower and its projection in a maritime environment. Support forces such as the navy and the air force, but also conventional missile and amphibious forces, are upgraded to enabling forces. A closer look on the priorities of Chinese and Japanese armament confirms this. So do reforms pushed by the US Pacific Command that are assessed as well. The states in East Asia, including the two regional great powers China and Japan are heavily dependent on sea lines of communication. The Chinese ambition of creating an anti-access area-denial zone (A2AD) in the Western Pacific that impedes US power projection into East Asia is directly driven by vulnerabilities created by this dependency. Likewise, Japan’s slow abandonment of pacifism is a reaction to China’s emergence as a seapower in this specific geographical context.

This article will be divided into three parts. The initial part will discuss about the realist and constructivist assumptions while the second part will put light on US foreign policy towards Middle East. The final part will try to explore the process of foreign policy evaluation of US regarding Middle East by the two different streams and will also try to identify which theory has the better explanation capacity.

Τα κράτη, η επιθετικότητά τους και ο J. Mearsheimer: Μία συμπληρωματική ανάγνωση Κυριάκος Μικέλης # , Μάρκος Τρούλης  Περίληψη Ο διεθνολόγος J. Mearsheimer έχει συνεισφέρει στην ανάλυση της διεθνούς πολιτικής και ιδίως στη θεματική για το πλαίσιο του παιχνιδιού ανάμεσα στα κράτη λαμβανομένων υπόψη της ισχύος, του ρόλου και των επιδιώξεών τους. Το σχετικό επιχείρημά του έχει διατυπωθεί με όρους 'τραγωδίας της πολιτικής των μεγάλων δυνάμεων', η οποία σχετίζεται με το ότι τα ισχυρότερα κράτη δεν είναι προδιατεθειμένα στη διατήρηση του status quo, καθόσον συνδέουν την επιβίωσή τους με την αύξηση της ισχύος ή επιρροής. Το άρθρο πραγματεύεται το συγκεκριμένο επιχείρημα. Ειδικότερα, παρουσιάζεται συνοπτικά η συζήτηση ανάμεσα σε δύο επί μέρους προσεγγίσεις της ρεαλιστικής θεώρησης των Διεθνών Σχέσεων, ήτοι τον αμυντικό ρεαλισμό και τον επιθετικό ρεαλισμό, και η σχετική στάση του Mearsheimer. Ακολούθως, περιγράφεται μία σειρά απαντήσεων προς αυτόν. Τέλος, διερευνάται η έννοια της επέκτασης και οι όροι με τους οποίους μπορεί να οριστεί η κυριαρχία στην οικεία θεωρία. Η έμφαση του Mearsheimer στη μεγιστοποίηση της ισχύος των κρατών, μέσω εδαφικών αξιώσεων, δεν πρέπει να συντελεί στην έλλειψη προσοχής έναντι στρατηγικών πλέον της κλασσικής εδαφικής επέκτασης. Λέξεις κλειδιά: Διεθνής πολιτική, θεωρία διεθνών σχέσεων, J. Mearsheimer, επιθετικότητα, μεγάλες δυνάμεις

This chapter focuses on the security challenges and perceptions that Iran was facing during the early 2000s. Being isolated by the international community, and with a weakened rival Iraq to its West, Iran did not appear to have an immediate security concern, which from a security perspective would neces- sitate a clandestine nuclear program. In fact, in the immediate aftermath of the 9/11 attacks, Iran cooperated with the United States in Afghanistan in bring- ing down the Taliban regime. The ‘axis of evil’ speech escalated the hostility between Iran and the United States. Iran’s Eastern neighbor Afghanistan and Western neighbor Iraq were both occupied by the United States who were referring to Iran as a part of an axis of evil. Given this geostrategic setting, this chapter explores whether or not Iran’s nuclear program was put in effect with possible security concerns.
The chapter advances two Realist hypotheses—one defensive, the other offensive. From a defensive Realist perspective, the regional and structural conditions in Iran’s region increase its threat perception and, therefore, Tehran understands that it must increase its military capabilities. The con- tention surrounding Iran’s nuclear program is not solely due to Tehran itself and the defensive Realist hypothesis only partially explains the escalation of Iran’s nuclear program into a ‘crisis’.
From an offensive Realist perspective, the United States as the sole regional hegemon in the international system wants to prevent the rise of another regional hegemon in the international system by offshore balanc- ing, which means allying with regional states to curb the rise of a potential hegemon in the Middle East. Interestingly, the U.S.-led invasion of Iraq in 2003 caused a dramatic change in the balance of power in the Middle East. The region was suddenly transformed from a tripolarity (Iraq–Iran–Saudi Arabia) to an evolving bipolar regional order with the elimination of Iraq as a stakeholder. Iran was not only relieved of a historic rival that fought a bitter war in the 1980s, but also now had an opportunity to  ll in the “power vacuum” and use its in uence among the Shiite population of Iraq to expand its in uence. Given this regional bipolarity, the offensive Realist perspective we advance argues that the United States is allying with anti-Iranian factions and states within the region to prevent Iranian hegemony. An Iranian nuclear capability would dramatically increase Tehran’s position in the strategic situ- ation. Consequently, the United States is using its military, economic, and diplomatic capabilities to offshore balance and prevent a possible nuclear Iran that would change the balance of power in the region.

China's rise to the status of a global power is a very complex phenomenon. Yet students of international relations (IR) are taught that a good theory should be 'parsimonious', meaning that it should explain a lot with a little. In relation to China's rise, the problem with theoretical parsimony may be not what it includes but what it leaves out. This article argues that lack of explanatory breadth and depth in connection with China's IRs demonstrates a shortcoming in mainstream IR theories such as neorealism, offensive realism and constructivism. A candidate for an IR theory which explains more with more is complexity theory (CT), which utilises a conceptual toolkit including non-linearity, feedback effects, emergent properties and complex adaptive systems. CT's toolkit, already used in the natural sciences, seems a good candidate to explain the hard-to-predict phenomena that emerge in the international sphere, but has not yet been developed into a clear theoretical lens in IR. In this article, the rise of China is analysed through the lenses of three mainstream theories and CT in order to assess the strengths and shortcomings of each approach and to suggest how CT's 'conceptual toolkit' might be utilised to flesh out existing IR theories in order to explain China's rise more fully.

This study investigated the culture specificity of Taijin-Kyofusho (TK) offensive type by examining whether symptoms of the disorder covary with social phobia and determining the proportion of those who meet criteria for a diagnosis of TK offensive type among Australian socially phobic individuals. The study included a total of 94 participants who met the DSM-IV criteria for social phobia and 39 normal controls who did not meet criteria for any mental disorder. All participants were born in Western countries and resided in Australia. Results showed that levels of offensive worry were significantly elevated in socially phobic individuals and decreased after treatment of their social phobia, pointing to a close relationship between symptoms of TK offensive type and social anxiety. Correlational analysis indicated that TK offensive type and social phobia appear to represent distinct constructs, although the two constructs were clearly strongly related. However, diagnostic examination revealed that the prevalence of reported offensive symptoms (eight out of 94; 8.5%) was extremely low among participants with social phobia in Australia and none of them met the full criteria for TK offensive type. The mixed findings relevant to the existence of TK offensive type among an Australian sample with social phobia are discussed in relation to cultural influences on life interference, referral behaviors, and diagnostic customs. Depression and Anxiety 25:601-608, 2008. r r 2007 Wiley-Liss, Inc.

John Mearsheimer is not just another voice in the information wars that run parrallel to the Ukraine-Russia conflict. He’s the R. Wendell Harrison Distinguished Service Professor at the University of Chicago, a political scientist and what in international relations (IR) circles is called a ‘realist’.
He’s become a divisive figure in recent debates over Russia’s invasion of Ukraine because of a message he’s been sharing since 2014 (when Russia invaded and annexed Crimea): Putin’s aggression towards Ukraine isn’t about Russia’s expansionist ambitions or a desire to restore the nation’s global status to that of its Soviet glory days.

Almost all the territories ruled by oversea colonial empires in Africa gained their independence after the Second World War. It did not change the fact that most of those newly independent countries did not cease their connections with their former colonial rulers. For some scholars, the decolonization of Africa did not happen and in one form or another the colonial relationship endures to this day.2
The admission of China to the World Trade Organization changed the political and economic status quo in Africa as well as in any other regions. Chinese search for commodities, natural resources and markets have stark resemblance with early colonial goals of the European states. After the original Scramble for Africa it is possible that we are witnessing a new, yet unnamed scramble.
This thesis aims to analyze the reasons behind the military interventions carried out by France in Africa and the application of neorealist approaches to the modern events are deemed useful to demonstrate that. The demonstration of the relevance of neorealist approaches is a byproduct in this context. Four countries in Africa have been chosen for the issues on hand: Ivory Coast, Mali, Central African Republic, and Libya. The chronology of the events happened prior and after the interventions are investigated and to find out the connections between the economic and political events in Africa, Chinese and French policies are analyzed.

The theory of neorealism in International Relations deliberates and studies a state's behaviour through a systematic approach influenced by six fundamental principles: anarchy, capability, distribution of power, polarity, national interest and structure. Neorealism is further divided into two fractions -offensive realism and defensive realism. In offensive realism, states utilize anarchy in the international system to maximize their power to acquire influence in order to seek overall superiority and dominance over the other states while ensuring an optimal security and thereby increasing their chances of survivability in the international system. The basic instinct of survival for any living organism on this planet is to fend for itself from any kind of threat, to increase its chances of survivability and it does so by either eliminating its threat or through projection of power which is through a display of its physical capabilities and attributes to ward off any perceived and forthcoming threats.

In this paper, we try to explain why Russia attacked Ukraine and why NATO does not preserve its broad borders. As a neo-realist aspect, this warfare explained 2 different opinions but in reality, the realist paradigm could not explain this aggression clearly. In this paper, we try to investigate why realists cannot understand this war.

Pada tahun 2007, China menembakkan senjata anti-satelit (ASAT) dan berhasil menghancurkan satelit bekasnya sendiri. Ini menunjukkan kemampuan China untuk menyerang sistem antariksa negara lain, terutama Amerika Serikat. China menantang polaritas Amerika Serikat melalui demonstrasi teknologi militer keantariksaannya.

Author believes that the public diplomacy of the Donetsk and Lugansk People's Republics should be analyzed from the offensive realism’s point of view as a necessary addition to the power politics. Being a channel of foreign policy communication, it is able to strengthen the symbolic ties between Donbass and Russia, increasing the chances of the republics to receive security guarantees in case of military aggression, and also increasing their latent power.

O objetivo deste trabalho é identificar a balança de poder na América do Sul, entre os anos de 1990 e 2002, à luz das teorias de Mearsheimer e Wohlforth. Após caracterizado o sistema regional, procura-se analisar o comportamento do Brasil, nos anos selecionados, a partir de uma análise da política externa do país para a América do Sul. Pretende-se compreender o papel do Brasil em sua região e no sistema internacional, partindo da hipótese que o país é um hegêmona regional / potência unipolar na sua região. Discorre-se, neste trabalho, acerca das teorias do realismo estrutural (ou neo-realista) e do realismo ofensivo das relações internacionais. A análise trabalha ainda a respeito da integração regional na América do Sul e da cooperação entre os Estados da região. A análise final busca testar as teorias apresentadas e apontar se o Brasil se comporta conforme o esperado, através de uma análise crítica da política externa do país.

This paper analyzes the Ukrainian crisis through the lenses of the contemporary realist schools of the theory of international relations. One the one hand, it is claimed that Russian responses were motivated by the logic of the balance of powers, upset by actions taken by the West. On the other hand, we prove that realism still has significant explanatory power in the context of 21st century.

Tirukkural is a work neither subscribed completely to the realist school nor to any schools of International Relations. Nevertheless, in numerous couplets, there are valuable insights, which are having realist orientation.

Full paper Available at- https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=3592284

This article argues that regional security cooperation in South-East Asia, mainly promoted by the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN), is a response to China´s economic rise. Although China is not regarded as a military challenge, Beijing’s ascension threatens to undermine the regional balance of power. The emerging insecurities threaten the stability of the regimes whose power is based on output legitimacy. Cooperation, the thesis states, can reduce these uncertainties. Yet, whereas collaboration in the ASEAN Regional Forum (ARF) offers Beijing incentives for the strengthening of its “enlightened” multilateralism, regional cooperation in the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) will not change China’s behaviour. The reason is that this cooperation is based on Realpolitik motives. Offensive Realism seems therefore well suited to analyse the Central Asian power relations. Even though the dimension of cooperation has not been included in John Mearsheimer’s approach, this article demonstrates that it can conceptually be integrated into offensive Realism without contradicting its core theses. For this, however, its adherents must accept two assumptions: First, that the domestic political logic – in case of Beijing the output legitimacy of the Communist Party – must be integrated. Second, that there exists no automatism in international politics. Otherwise one would have to speak of the tragic of offensive Realism: Policies, based on this perception, does not offer China sufficient incentives to further pursue multilateralism.

This thesis aims to develop a new perspective to the Structural Realism by introducing the Cyclical Rise and Fall of Offense and Defense Theory. For this purpose, while pioneer Structural Realists are/were focusing on the systemic effects on Great Powers, this study is focusing on the concept of systemic transition in detail and is elaborating on the effects of systemic transition on both Great Powers and the Secondary Units. In a pure anarchical structure, without international political systems, all units act to expand their areas of influence. However, systems of international politics and the distribution of capabilities may restrict states' actions and some of them may struggle for their security, while others are expanding their areas of influence. In Bipolar and Unipolar systems, while Great Powers were acting for expanding their areas of influence, Secondary Units were struggling for their security. Today, international politics is on the verge of a systemic transition period and the sole Great Power is struggling for its security and Secondary Units are expanding their areas of influence. This is why this thesis named as Cyclical Rise and Fall of Offense and Defense.

This article addresses a contradiction that has long been at the heart of the criminal law concerned with 'public order' . Although crimes such as offensive conduct and offensive language are amongst the most frequently prosecuted offences in Australia, their legal nature is poorly understood and rarely the subject of judicial scrutiny or academic explanation. In the context of ongoing controversy over whether such offences have a legitimate place on the statute books, we confront this oversight. This article draws on the High Court of Australia's decision in He Kaw Teh v The Queen1 to lay out a methodology for construing the elements of a statutory offence, and then employs this approach to produce a recommended interpretation of the elements of sections 4 and 4A of the Summary Offences Act 1988 (NSW).

I certify that the work in this thesis has not previously been submitted for a degree, nor has it been submitted as part of requirements for a degree except as fully acknowledged within the text. I also certify that the thesis has been written by me. Any help that I have received in my research work and the preparation of the thesis itself has been acknowledged. In addition, I certify that all information sources and literature used are indicated in the thesis.

The new century with the dynamics of international relations has challenged theories, as it called Popper 'strict universality' and the need for 'numerical universality' theoretical explanations. In the twentieth century, theories of international relations developed, but these theories are in the battle with explanation changes rather than expanding the theoretical framework. The need for new explanations doesn't reject old theories, only requires their axioms to be more inter-theoretical and with new variables that explain the course of the deliberate actions of state actors to the intended purpose. So this theoretical change and the acquisition of some realistic axioms, by adding inter-theoretic variables (pragmatism, foreign policy analysis, offensive realism, and defensive realism), sends us to a theorization we have called " spider diplomacy ". Almond in the 1960s considered that " with the decline of the norms and traditions of political sciences, the need for political theory and theories has increased " , where we find the same situation today for explaining the new geopolitical and geostrategic circumstances. Therefore, these circumstances we try to explain, through " spider diplomacy " as hybrid theory for empirical, inductive, probable and testable studies based on three initiatives of international subjects (from state actors to non-state actors, from state actors to other actors state, and mix). With this research we have analyzed the causes and the chronology of a diplomatic network, the wild stretch that Russia is trying to make today and Serbia in the new state of Kosovo. But for the illustration we have taken another example from the past. One of Israel's wars with Arab countries. We have found verifiable, pragmatic and analytical results that prove the "spider diplomacy" scheme is needed.

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This paper is Part Two of my Realist analysis, and is in response to 'Using the Realist Theories and Foreign Policy identified in Paper One , you will write a 3000-word essay analysing an aspect of contemporary foreign policy for one of the states and institutions covered in the module. The theoretical approach identified can be applied to the historical case study. I chose to apply Realism to the Rise of China as it remains one of the most vigorously debated subjects within international relations theory. It has been said that realism is at the core of Chinese thinking on the international order (Lynch 2009) when analysing the scripts of Chinese elites. In my research, I analyse China's foreign policy from a realist perspective and explore the different theories within including classical realism, neoclassical realism, offensive and defensive realism.

For over a decade, with the world’s only superpower bogged down by conflict in the Middle East, domestic political gridlock, and the residuals of a worldwide recession, an emerging China has aggressively developed both strategy and tactics that attempt to elevate the country into a competent, respected, and authoritative regional actor. Harnessing and fueling multiple lines of effort on the diplomatic, informational, military, and economic fronts, the Chinese Communist Party has been able to make a fairly successful bid toward regional hegemony.

It is common knowledge that the search for glory drove Louis XIV’s foreign policy. However, reducing the international politics of late-seventeenth and early-eighteenth centuries Europe to Louis XIV’s personality misses an important part of the story. In order to explain that era, I test against it offensive realism and defensive realism. I show that France was a potential hegemon from 1661 to 1713 and that it acted according to the predictions of offensive realism. France took all the opportunities to expand. Several great powers tried to pass the buck of containing France as often as possible. This study demonstrates that, contrary to what defensive realism predicts, great powers have clear incentives to expand. Thus, offensive realism provides more insights than defensive realism. This study is of importance for international relations theory but also for understanding the international politics of early modern Europe.

Water polo is a team sport that has been suffering rule changes aiming for a more attractive game. Our goal was to unveil whether different offensive playing styles or methods were adopted by elite national teams from Eastern Europe and from other world countries after the new rules framework was applied at the 2019 FINA World Championship. Additionally, we questioned whether those rules induced a more dynamic game. A total of 648 offensive sequences from games contested by the top-six ranked national squads were analysed. Descriptive statistics, parametric and nonparametric tests were computed, and the effect size was used. The eastern Europeans were the tallest (t (76) = −4.081; p < 0.001, d = 0.42) and the Hungarians were higher than Italians (p = 0.005, dz = −0.41). Offensive time length differed between teams (H (5) = 30.50, p < 0.001) with Serbia being the fastest (Mdn = 22 s). In successful attacks without extra time, Italy was quicker than Spain (17.5 vs. 25.0 s; p = 0...

Aula 11: Capítulo 3: Realismo-Parte VIII Mearsheimer, teoria da estabilidade e hegemonia Em um ensaio amplamente debatido, John Mearsheimer (1993) parte do argumento neorrealista de Waltz (1979) para analisar tanto o passado quanto ao futuro. Para Mearsheimer, o neorrealismo tem uma relevância contínua para o entendimento das relações internacionais, ou seja, não é uma teoria restrita ao contexto da Guerra Fria. Isso é relevante tanto para as situações multipolares quanto para as situações bipolares da política mundial. Ademais, argumenta que o neorrealismo pode ser empregado para prognosticar o curso da história internacional para além desse período. Mearsheimer se baseia no argumento de Waltz (1979:161-93) sobre a estabilidade de sistemas bipolares em relação aos multipolares. Estas são consideradas as duas configurações possíveis de arranjo do poder estrutural entre Estados independentes. De acordo com Waltz, os sistemas bipolares são superiores aos multipolares, porque fornecem uma estabilidade internacional maior e, por isso, garantem mais paz e segurança. Há três razões básicas para os sistemas bipolares serem mais estáveis e pacíficos: primeiro, o número de conflitos entre as potências é menor, reduzindo as possibilidades de uma guerra entre elas; o segundo é o fato de ser mais fácil operar um sistema efetivo de dissuasão, já que uma quantidade menor de grandes potências está envolvida; e, finalmente, como somente duas potências dominam o sistema, os riscos de julgamentos equivocados e acidentes são menores. São menos dedos no gatilho. Em suma, as duas superpotências rivais podem se manter atentas às movimentações de cada uma sem a distração e a confusão causada pela presença de um número maior de poderes, como antes de 1945 e a partir de 1990. A questão proposta por Mearsheimer (1993: 141) é: o que aconteceria se o sistema bipolar fosse substituído por um multipolar? Como essa mudança de sistema afeta as chances de paz e os perigos de guerra na Europa do pós-Guerra Fria? Sua resposta é a seguinte: A probabilidade de grandes crises e de guerra na Europa tende a aumentar notoriamente se...este cenário se expandir. As próximas décadas, em uma

El realismo es considerado como la perspectiva teórica dominante de la disciplina. Desde su aparición como paradigma después de la Segunda Guerra Mundial, ha tenido varias elaboraciones que lo han vuelto un enfoque rico y diverso. Este capítulo empieza por esbozar una clasificación de los distintos tipos de realismo, para posteriormente desarrollar una de las vertientes contemporáneas más reconocidas y utilizadas: el realismo ofensivo. Dentro de esta perspectiva, se puede mencionar a varios autores. Sin embargo, dada la dificultad de su ubicación específica dentro de esta vertiente, se desarrolla únicamente la teoría específica de John J. Mearsheimer, a quien se ha visto, además, como su figura prominente.
La teoría de Mearsheimer explica la competencia continua por poder entre las grandes potencias. Para ello, identifica las características del sistema internacional, desarrolla los conceptos básicos del realismo ofensivo, expone los objetivos de las grandes potencias y presenta las diferentes estrategias a las que pueden recurrir para maximizar su poder. Después de hacer una revisión exhaustiva de dicha elaboración, se presentará un resumen de la serie de televisión The Walking Dead, que se centra en el regreso de los muertos y la caída de la civilización y muestra un mundo post-apocalíptico en el que los sobrevivientes luchan por sobrevivir. Con ayuda del capítulo Not Tomorrow Yet (temporada 6, capítulo 12), se explica el comportamiento realista ofensivo desarrollado por Mearsheimer, en un mundo en el que todos temen a los demás y luchan por su supervivencia.

John Mearsheimer has described a late version of the realist school in his acclaimed book ‘The Tragedy of Great Power Politics’. His theory, ‘offensive realism’, suggests that states are never status quo-oriented, while they struggle to survive by constantly tending to expand their influence and power. Thus, in his point of view, revivalism is endemic in the international system. Further developing his argumentation, Mearsheimer examines case studies of political expansion, such as Japan (1868-1945), Germany (1862-1945), the Soviet Union (1917-1991) and Italy (1861-1943). In addition, he demonstrates how Wilhelmine Germany (1890-1914), Nazi Germany (1933-1941), Imperial Japan (1937-1941) and the US nuclear policy also support his theory. All case studies end with military expansion and war engagements for the achievement of desirable survival through power maximization.
In the current paper, the possibility of non-military dimensions of revivalist grand strategy is examined. Since the rationality criterion is accepted regarding states’ behavior and costs of military engagement often exceed benefits due to significant economic interdependence, it is examined whether Mearsheimer’s theoretical assumptions can be extended to include cases like ‘economic sphere of influence’ establishment or state groupings on the basis of soft power or rhetorically promoted cultural affinities. In what terms can sovereignty be defined in Mearsheimer’s theory? Is territorial expansion always a wise strategy? In methodological terms, since Mearsheimer’s approach is clearly positivist (based on empirical evidence and derived from logical treatments), why does not it include the possibility of power maximization via ‘low-cost strategies’? Post-offensive realist analysis does not contradict Mearsheimer’s theory, but furthers its relevance in the sense of conceptualizing states’ power maximization strategies without classical territorial expansion considerations.

One of the most intractable debates in IR revolves around the severity and frequency of the security dilemma. Offensive realists argue that states are compelled to make worst-case assumptions about each other's intentions, which yields inexorable competition and conflict even between mutually-benign actors. Yet others have argued that rational benign states should always be able to find cooperative signals that are costly enough to be credible, but not too costly to risk sending. This should alleviate the security dilemma and facilitate cooperation, even under high initial distrust. However, there is little empirical work on interstate reassurance and the conditions under which mutually-benign actors can build trust. We advance this debate using laboratory experiments to test Andrew Kydd's canonical model of the security dilemma. We find strong support for the directional effects of the hypothesized signaling mechanisms. However, the frequency of cooperation is significantly lower than the model predicts, and the feasibility of reassurance is highly sensitive to the degree of prior trust. This implies that although reassurance can mitigate the security dilemma, offensive realism may still capture important psychological mechanisms that impede interstate cooperation.

2009
Abstract: The active return of Russia into international affairs took a decisive turn in the 21st century as the country expressed its willingness to support its national interests and retain or expand its sphere of regional influence. Russian foreign policy has been built on an axis that bears operational elements from Defensive and Offensive Realism. Foreign policy choices have been driven mainly but not exclusively by specific security considerations stemming from NATO’s policy to include states that traditionally and historically belonged to the Soviet sphere of influence. A process of explaining and understanding Russian regional foreign policy is bound to lead to strategic considerations related to the issue of polarity in the world system, the need to formulate an axis against global multifaceted threats and the importance of Russia to European security. A defensive and offensive realism comparative analysis may provide the basis of scrutinizing Russian foreign policy, while directly and indirectly pointing out alternative ways of approaching the country in a realistic way.

The offensive realist theory on defence cooperation under unipolarity aims to understand: (1) the state motivation to cooperate on defence; (2) the independent variables that affect defence cooperation; (3) a comprehensive defence cooperation model that can be replicated in different regions of the world. Under unipolarity, attempts to alter the regional balances of power will be punished by the system. The way states can maximise their power is through defence cooperation, which must provide not only the individual state capacity but also distributive elements that do not trigger an arms race on the regional aspect nor an offshore balancing from the unipole. The theory suggests that new times demand new ways of power maximisation.

Cyberbullying (CB) is classified as one of the severe misconducts on social media. Many CB detection systems have been developed for many natural languages to face this phenomenon. However, Arabic is one of the under-resourced languages suffering from the lack of quality datasets in many computational research areas. This paper discusses the design, construction, and evaluation of a multi-dialect, annotated Arabic Cyberbullying Corpus (ArCybC), a valuable resource for Arabic CB detection and motivation for future research directions in Arabic Natural Language Processing (NLP). The study describes the phases of ArCybC compilation. By way of illustration, it explores the corpus to discover strategies used in rendering Arabic CB tweets pulled from four Twitter groups, including gaming, sports, news, and celebrities. Based on thorough analysis, we discovered that these groups were the most susceptible to harassment and cyberbullying. The collected tweets were filtered based on a compiled harassment lexicon, which contains a list of multi-dialectical profane words in Arabic compiled from four categories: sexual, racial, physical appearance, and intelligence. To annotate ArCybC, we asked five annotators to classify 4,505 tweets into two classes manually: Offensive/non-Offensive and CB/non-CB. We conducted a rigorous comparison of different machine learning approaches applied on ArCybC to detect Arabic CB using two language models: bag-of-words (BoW) and word embedding. The experiments showed that Support Vector Machine (SVM) with word embedding achieved an accuracy rate of 86.3% and an F1-score rate of 85%. The main challenges encountered during the ArCybC construction were the scarcity of freely available Arabic CB texts and the deficiency of annotating the texts.

This is an advance summary of a forthcoming article in the Oxford Research Encyclopedia of Politics. Please check back later for the full article.Realists explain foreign policy in terms of power politics. They disagree on the exact meaning of power and on how and to what extent politics is likely to influence policy, but they all find that power has a strong materialist component and that the influence of domestic politics on foreign policy is likely to vary with security challenges stemming from the external environment. The relative size of a state’s material resources is likely to influence its ability to set the agenda and to influence specific decisions and outcomes in international affairs, and the nature of the strategic environment, most importantly to what extent the security and survival of the state is under immediate threat, is likely to influence the relative weight of domestic influences on foreign policy. In sum, great powers enjoy a bigger external action space in t...

Rusya Federasyonu’nun 21.yüzyılda yayınladığı Ulusal Güvenlik Konseptleri, Askeri Doktrinler’in analiz edilmesi
amacıyla yapılan bu çalışma şu temel sorunsal üzerine yoğunlaşmıştır: “Uluslararası ilişkiler teorilerinden hangisi,
Rusya Federasyonu’nun güvenlik belgelerini açıklayabilir(?)”. Sorunsal dâhilinde çalışma: “Rusya Federasyonu’nun
güvenlik belgelerinin neo-realist teori tarafından şekillenmektedir” hipotezi üzerinden sınanmıştır. Çalışmada, ulaşılan
bulgular çerçevesinde Rusya Federasyonu’nun; uluslararası sistemi anarşik-istikrarsız gördüğü, ulusal güvenliğine
yönelik temel tehditlerin uluslararası sistemin yapısından kaynaklandığı, güvenlik politikalarının ise “nükleer
caydırıcılık ve askeri kapasite” ve “ittifaklar yolu ile dengeleme” stratejileri çerçevesinde oluşturulduğu saptanmıştır

The present study analyses the development of the interaction between Russia and China in the Arctic Region, focusing on the security dimension, looking under this perspective at the economic, geostrategic and military fields. It will do so in order to understand whether, in spite of the apparent alliance of these two countries, elements of confrontation between them are still present and have the potential to resurface, with the policy implications that they may bring. During the last two decades the factuality of climate change has become consensus among the scientific community and has become an object of increasingly greater attention by policymakers, international organisations, NGOs and civil society. Among the most outspoken consequences of climate change is exactly the melting of the ice cap that covers both the North and South Poles, which however are often analysed mainly from the ecological standpoint. This study offers instead a geopolitical outlook at this process in the Arctic, assessing how are one major Arctic power (Russia) and a non-Arctic power interest in the region (China) responding to it and how their national interests in fields such as economic development and defence are shaped by this product of climate change. This paper will then link the geopolitical dynamics of the Arctic with the global great power competition involving the USA, Russia and China. Focusing then in the interaction between Russia and China in the Arctic and at their dialectic of declining vs. emerging power, this thesis will demonstrate that their alliance is being forced by the US dual containment policy, without which they would likely compete between themselves. From this conclusion, it will then claim that the Arctic could become a region where the US or its allies may start a policy of rapprochement of Russia, which should ultimately aim at the isolation of China and its containment also from the North.

John Mearsheimer’s offensive realism has come to describe and analyze regional powers’ dilemmas before the challenge of regional leadership. Considering the vicious circle of states’ behavior throughout history, the American scholar identified this process as a tragedy leading continuously to balances and counterbalances. In this regard, international anarchy and the uncertainty about their competitors’ intentions urge states to care about their own survival, maximizing their power but at the same time provoking fear. Under this theoretical lens, this article tests the possibility of a “Mearsheimerian tragedy” for the case of Turkey and examines whether Ankara has to overcome systemic pressures as well as past strategic mistakes of its own.