Micro-econometrics

Economic growth which is considered as one of the best indicator of measuring the robustness of every economy is essential in understanding its relationship with unemployment which is an important macroeconomic indicator that reflects the incompetence of any economy to make full use of its human resources. Hence, a macro-economic secondary and time series data was extracted from the World Development Indicator (WDI) for the period of 1991-2018 in China. In conducting the econometric analysis of the study, both the Augmented Dickey-Fuller Test and Phillips Perron Test were employed to test and confirm the stationary level of the variables of study; the Autoregressive Distributed Lagged (ARDL) cointegration and the ARDL Bounds test were employed to test for the short-run and the long-run cointegration of the variables of study since both variable were stationary at first difference I (1). The finding of the study reveals that there are negative short-run and a long-run relationship be...

This study examined the determinants of food price inflation and its impact on the economy of PNG from 2001 to 2011 (10 years) using time series data. Secondary data obtained from credible sources such as BPNG, ADB, WB, and IMF were analysed using various econometric test such as the Johansen Test for Cointergration, Augmented Dickey Fuller Test and the Vector Error Correction Model. The econometric tests revealed that there is a long run relationship (causality) between the variables real exchange rate and wheat price which significantly influenced food price inflation in PNG. There is a negative correlation between money supply and interest rate which negatively impacted food price inflation in the country. In the short run, real exchange rate, money supply, real interest rate and wheat price do not significantly affect food inflation as their corresponding p-values are greater than five percent (5%) critical value. Alternatively, there is a long run relationship or causality betw...

Economic growth which is considered as one of the best indicators of measuring the robustness of every economy is essential in understanding its relationship with unemployment which is an important macroeconomic indicator that reflects the incompetence of any economy to make full use of its human resources.

Universal Coverage and financial protection are the goals of health systems the world over. Using data from the Harmonized Nigerian Living Standard Survey HNLSS 2009/2010 to calculate the catastrophic and impoverishing impacts of out-of-pocket health payment in Nigeria, we discovered that 19.5% of Nigerians suffered financial catastrophe, while 3.5% are pushed below the poverty line. Factors associated with catastrophic health expenditure include; household size, number of spouse in the household, geopolitical zones, place of residence, household sex. We also utilized the tool of financing incidence analysis to show the progressivity of out-of-pocket expenditure across socioeconomic groups in Nigeria. A health system dominated by excessive reliance on out-of-pocket expenditure cannot achieve the goal of financial protection and UC. Vulnerable households with high risks of catastrophic and impoverishing effects of OOP should be targeted. Introduction Universal Health Coverage UHC and Financial Protection has become the priority of health systems around the world since the call by the World Health Organization [WHO], especially, but not exclusively for low and middle income countries, with less functional healthcare systems. The WHO (2010) defines UHC as ensuring that all people obtain good quality health services without suffering financial hardship when paying for them (WHO, 2010). This implies that individuals should not be denied access to needed healthcare services on account of their inability to pay and should not risk impoverishment when using healthcare services. In other words, UHC ensures two priorities of the health financing system: access to health and financial health protection (Onwujekwe, 2011). The generally acceptable nucleus of universal coverage is that health system should be financed according to ability to pay and benefits received in accordance with the need for health care (Mills, et al 2012). There is a growing consensus among researchers and health policy makers that an equitable health financing system should ensure financial protection of healthcare service users from catastrophic and impoverishing effects and that such a health system should ensure Universal Coverage (UC) of all persons. This is because the financing structure of a healthcare system can disrupt households' living standards by deepening inequalities in income distribution, thus disrupting their positions in the socioeconomic hierarchy (Van Doorslaer, et al 2006). This necessitated the WHO (2010) to advocate for " affordable universal coverage and access for all citizens on the basis of equity and solidarity " hence, countries all over the world are pursuing the goal of universal coverage. A major focus of the WHO (2010) resolution is to reduce reliance on out-of-pocket payments for health care needs and to promote prepayment mechanism of health insurance (Onwujekwe, 2011). The post 2010 WHO resolution notwithstanding, Nigeria still have very poor Universal Financial Coverage (UFC) as less than 5% of the entire population is covered by prepayment mechanism of health insurance, this is especially severe in the informal sector and rural dwellers and coverage with most healthcare services are very low (Ichoku, Fonta & Araar, 2012; Odeyemi & Nixon, 2013; Onwujekwe 2011). WHO (2010) suggests that, it is only when out-of-pocket direct payments fall below 20% of total health expenditure that a country can achieve financial protection which is demonstrated by a negligible incidence of financial catastrophe and impoverishment. However, in Nigeria public Health Expenditure (PHE) accounts for just 20-30% of Total Health Expenditure (THE) while Private Health Expenditure accounts 68% of THE, the bulk of the private health expenditure comes from households Out-of-Pocket (OOP) expenditure accounting for over 95% (Ichoku et al 2012; Olaniyan & Lawson, 2010; WHO 2015). In a country where over 70% of the population are living below the 1.25 dollar per day, OOP spending curb healthcare consumption, intensify the already inequity in access to quality healthcare and exposes household to financial risk of expensive illness (Onwejekwe, et al., 2010) hence making the goal of UC far from been achieved. The criteria for meeting the goals of UHC were clearly specified by WHO (2010) to include the fact that THE should not be less than 4-5% of Gross Domestic Product (GDP), OOP spending should not be more than 30-40% of THE, over 90% of the population should be covered by health insurance and other risk pooling schemes and finally close to 100% coverage of the population with social assistance and safety net programmes.

The economics of "happiness" shares a feature with behavioral economics that raises questions about its usefulness in public policy analysis. What happiness economists call "habituation" refers to the fact that people's reported well-being reverts to a base level, even after major life events such as a disabling injury or winning the lottery. What behavioral economists call "projection bias" refers to the fact that people systematically mistake current circumstances for permanence, buying too much food if shopping while hungry for example. Habituation means happiness does not react to long-term changes, and projection bias means happiness over-reacts to temporary changes. I demonstrate this outcome by combining responses to happiness questions with information about air quality and weather on the day and in the place where those questions were asked. The current day's air quality affects happiness while the local annual average does not. Interpreted literally, either the value of air quality is not measurable using the happiness approach or air quality has no value. Interpreted more generously, projection bias saves happiness economics from habituation, enabling its use in public policy.

This assignment shows the historical background of regression discontinuity design, how it started in the education and psychology field, how it struggled to have statistical inference and almost abandoned and how in the year 90s it came back and the way it evolved in Economics and get popular with renowned authors in the year 2000. It is nowadays still popular in education and labor economics as well; it is also in crime, environment, finance, health, political economics, etc. The analysis has got statistical measurements and is getting applied in statistical software like STATA, R, etc. It has many varieties like multi-cutoff, kinks, fuzzy, sharp regression discontinuity etc. The assignment mainly shows how sharp RDD differ from fuzzy RDD, and we presented RDD's applications with example in different fields. My case has to use fuzzy regression discontinuity in estimating the causal effect of contract farming participation on welfare in participant and non-participant smallholder farmers.

This term paper sets out to examine the economy of china historically and itemize the policies and actions of china in the past that have led to its rapid growth and world renowned
position. For china, it has not been that easy as china use to be a country of internal fights and wars until it was successfully unified. Yet its unification did not create the desired economic growth. China had to open up their economy gradually to the rest of the world so as to grow as expected. The secret of the emergence of china amongst other reasons was the cumulative efforts of the various governments of china supporting the economic views of china and work towards its attainment, the fact that factor cost is relatively low, high level of technology, better investment environment, regulating the exchange rate of its currency
so as to keep export booming, presently moving from an investment led to a consumption led economy, etc. All these and more has placed china in its position in the world today and she is still making efforts to move higher than her present position in the world.

Improving rural farmers' access to direct agricultural markets is required to ensure sustainable supply of food. Rural farmers in the developing world account for the largest share of food supply including cassava. Globally, cassava (Manihot esculenta Crantz) is recognised as an important source of valuable semi-processed industrial raw materials such as ethanol, high-quality cassava flour and starch. However, there is less empirical research on rural farmers' participation in direct marketing channels in the cassava sector. This study focused on analysing the determinants of farmer participation in direct marketing channels using the case of the cassava sector in the Oyo State of Nigeria. The Bivariate Tobit model was applied in the empirical analysis, based on a primary dataset generated from 400 rural cassava farmers from the Oyo State of Nigeria. The result showed that, in general, farmers sold a higher percentage of their cassava output to processors. The Bivariate Tobit results showed that human capital, physical capital, social capital, and market conditions had significant effects on farmers' decisions on whether to sell their cassava output directly to processors or middlemen. On the contrary, natural and financial capitals did not significantly affect farmers' marketing channel decision. The study recommends that policy instruments should target improving road networks in rural areas, enhancing farmers' access to market information, and increasing membership of farmer association to ensure an active participation of farmers in the direct marketing channels.

This paper develops an empirical model to examine the relationship between ownership change and two-sided-platform formation in the air transport industry. We investigate whether privatization enhances the dynamic capabilities of airports so that they more closely resemble a two-sided platform. We study the case of the recent privatization of Brazilian airports. We find evidence of a permanent, ceteris paribus increase in demand triggered after the privatization program. The results are consistent with a preemption of assets with a view to expanding operations and so benefiting from the network effects offered by a two-sided platform.

The size of government has largely affected the growth of economies and scaled up their indebtedness. This study examines the impact of government size on external debt in five SSA countries, using data spanning 26 years (1990-2015), and employing the pooled mean group (PMG) estimation technique. The findings show that external debt is negatively affected by government size, as well as trade openness; while the relationship between external debt and economic growth is found to be positive. The study therefore recommends a more openness of the countries' economies to trade, and the cut-in-size of government in order to permit more resources' use for productive economic activities so as to reduce government external indebtedness.

Recent literature tried to explain the Indian growth miracle in different ways, ranging from trade liberalization to industrial reforms. Using data on Indian manufacturing firms, this paper analyzes the relationship between firm's productivity and export market participation during 1991–2004. While it provides evidence of the self-selection hypothesis by showing that more productive firms become exporters, the results do not show that entry into export markets enhances productivity. The paper examines the explanation of self selection hypothesis for total factor productivity differences across 33,510 exporting and non-exporting firms. It uses propensity score matching to test the learning-by-exporting hypothesis. In line with the prediction of recent heterogeneous firm models of international trade, the main finding of the paper is: more productive firms become exporters but it is not the case that learning by exporting is a channel fuelling growth in Indian manufacturing.

Climate change is a major development challenge affecting developing countries that rely on rain-fed agricultural production for food and income. Smallholder farmers in these countries are using multiple adaptation practices to manage the effects of climate change. This chapter examines household and community-level factors that influence smallholder farmers’ level of adaptation to climate change in the Hwedza District in Zimbabwe. Data for this study were collected from 400 randomly selected smallholder farmers, using a structured questionnaire, focus group discussions, and key informant interviews. The study used a multilevel modeling approach to examine the factors that influence smallholder farmers’ level of adaptation to climate change. Results from the study show that smallholder farmers’ level of adaptation to climate change is conditioned by access to extension services, access to remittances, family labor, household education (household level factors), and linking capital (...

Climate change is a major development challenge affecting developing countries that rely on rain-fed agricultural production for food and income. Smallholder farmers in these countries are using multiple adaptation practices to manage the effects of climate change. This chapter examines household and community-level factors that influence smallholder farmers’ level of adaptation to climate change in the Hwedza District in Zimbabwe. Data for this study were collected from 400 randomly selected smallholder farmers, using a structured questionnaire, focus group discussions, and key informant interviews. The study used a multilevel modeling approach to examine the factors that influence smallholder farmers’ level of adaptation to climate change. Results from the study show that smallholder farmers’ level of adaptation to climate change is conditioned by access to extension services, access to remittances, family labor, household education (household level factors), and linking capital (...

We investigate the returns to promotions and separations from firms using Portuguese linked employer-employee data. More than 90% of the total variation in wages can be ex- plained by observed and unobserved characteristics of workers and firms. Taken together, worker and firm unobserved effects explain more than half of the variation of wages for all types of job mobility. Our results suggest that promoted workers are high wage workers in high wage firms. Movers are inherently lower wage workers, in lower wage firms. However, on average, workers that find a new job within one year enter firms that pay higher wages. This is not true for workers that take more than a year to find a new job.

Colin Blyth's paradox <<of three pies>>: setwise vs. pairwise event preferences

The pairwise independence of events does not entail their setwise independence (Bernstein's example, 1910-1917). The probability
distributions of all pairs of events do not determine the probability distribution of the whole set of events (the paradox of a triangular room
\cite[2001]{Vorobyev2007ru,Vorobyev2016famems4ru}). The pairwise preferences of events do not determine the setwise preferences of these events
(Blyth's paradox, 1972). The eventological theory of setwise preferences, proposed in \cite[2007]{Vorobyev2007ru}, gives an eventual justification
and extension of the classical theory of preferences and explains Blyth's paradox <<of three pies>> (that is already well-known to Yule) by human ability to use triplewise preferences.

The fact that pairwise independence of events does not imply setwise independence of events was mentioned for the first time in the correspondence in the years 1910 to 1917 between A.A.Chuprov\footnote{\emph{Alexander Alexandrovich Chuprov (1974--1926)} was a Russian statistician who worked on mathematical statistics, sample survey theory and demography.} and A.A.Markov\footnote{\emph{Andrey Andreyevich Markov (1856--1922)} was a Russian mathematician. He is best known for his work on stochastic processes. A primary subject of his research later became known as Markov chains and Markov processes.}. The bright example of the fact is attributted usually to Bernstein\footnote{Sergei Natanovich Bernstein (1880--1968) was a Russian and Soviet mathematician of Jewish origin known for contributions to partial differential equations, differential geometry, probability theory, and approximation theory.} with reference to \cite[1946, page 48]{Bernstein1946}.

In \cite[2016]{Vorobyev2016famems4} an improved generalization of Feynman's paradox of negative probabilities \cite{Feynman1982,Feynman1987} for observing three events which is directly related to the theory of quantum computing is presented.
This generalization, first proposed in \cite[2001]{Vorobyev2001a} and called the <<paradox of the triangular room of negative probabilities of events>>, clearly demonstrates the fact that three probability distributions of pairs of events from a given triplet are insufficient to determine the probabilistic distribution of the whole triplet of events. In other words, three pairwise (partial) probability distributions of events do not determine the triplewise (joint) probability distribution of the whole triplet of events.

In this paper, I intend to briefly show the main advantages of the new \emph{theory of setwise event preferences} developed in \cite{Vorobyev2007ru}, and at the same time to demonstrate once again the failure of the pairwise to describe the whole. This time, using the example of preferences, when each of us is forced to make a comparison every time, hitting the next situation of choice, which requires a decision. The theory of setwise event preferences shows that the familiar pairwise comparisons do not provide a complete description of the whole set of preferences that can be trapped at every step. A vivid example of this failure of the pairwise to describe the whole is the explanation of the eventological theory of setwise event preferences of the famous Blyth's paradox <<of three pies>> \cite[1972]{Blyth1972}.

How does a person make a decision? Clarify:
<<How does the person make an event decision?>>, because from the point of view of the eventology theory \cite{Vorobyev2007ru} any decision accepted by a person is always an eventual decision.
Let $(\Omega,\mathcal F,\mathbf P)$ be a probability space in which the eventological theory of setwise event preferences answers this question.

If you are interested in my work, and you have the opportunity to provide financial support for the publication of my book "Theory of experience and of chance as a theory of being," I ask you to use my PayPal account: paypal.me/EventologyTheory

This paper identities and compares the determinants of within- and between-firm job mobility in Portugal. Estimates are based on models that distinguish promotions by whether or not they involve a change in the tasks performed, and separations by the time workers take to enter a new firm. Both worker and firm observed characteristics emerge as important factors in the analysis. Firm unobserved heterogeneity is relevant, evidence suggests that firms vary more in their unobserved propensity to promote than in the case of separations. Overall, this study highlights two main issues; the role of firms in the process of job mobility, and the importance of distinguishing not only between types of separations from firms, but also between types of promotions within firms.

ABSTRAK Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk mengetahui fenomena plypaper effect pada belanja daerah kabupaten/kota di Propinsi Sulawesi Tenggara. Penelitian ini menggunakan data sekunder dengan mengamati data PAD, DAU dan Belanja Daerah Kab/Kota di Sulawesi Tenggara selama kurun waktu 2010-2013. Analisis data yang digunakan adalah analisis regresi data panel. Hasil penelitian menunjukkan bahwa dalam periode 2010-2013 terdeteksi adanya flypaper effect pada belanja daerah kabupaten/kota di Sulawesi Tenggara yang mengindikasikan bahwa dalam periode pengamatan Pemerintah Daerah Kabupaten/Kota di Sulawesi Tenggara terjadi inefisiensi penggunaan dana belanja daerah. Kata kunci: belanja daerah, dana alokasi umum, pendapatan asli daerah I. PENDAHULUAN Permasalahan pembiayaan pembangunan yang bersumber dari bantuan dana transfer adalah pemerintah daerah terlalu menggantungkan transfer pemerintah untuk membiayai belanja daerah tanpa mengoptimalkan potensi yang dimiliki oleh daerah. Padahal daerah diharapkan mampu mengalokasikan sumber dana ini pada sektor-sektor produktif sehingga dapat mendorong peningkatan investasi di daerah dan meningkatkan respon pemerintah kepada masyarakat dan meningkatkan kuantitas dan kualitas layanan sebagaimana dimuat dalam tujuan dari desentralisasi itu sendiri. Permasalahan selanjutnya menimbulkan efek pada peningkatan kontribusi publik terhadap PAD seperti dalam bentuk pajak yang juga meningkatnya kapasitas fiskal daerah, sehingga tanggungan pemerintah untuk memberikan DAU bisa lebih dikurangi. Fenomena yang terjadi saat ini menggambarkan bahwa pemerintah daerah terlalu menggantungkan alokasi DAU untuk membiayai belanja modal dan pembangunan tanpa mengoptimalkan potensi PAD. Disaat alokasi DAU yang diperoleh besar, maka pemerintah daerah akan berusaha agar pada periode berikutnya Dana Alokasi Umum diperoleh tetap porsi nominalnya. Menurut

We investigate the returns to promotions and separations from firms using Portuguese linked employer-employee data. More than 90% of the total variation in wages can be ex- plained by observed and unobserved characteristics of workers and firms. Taken together, worker and firm unobserved effects explain more than half of the variation of wages for all types of job mobility. Our results suggest that promoted workers are high wage workers in high wage firms. Movers are inherently lower wage workers, in lower wage firms. However, on average, workers that find a new job within one year enter firms that pay higher wages. This is not true for workers that take more than a year to find a new job.

The paper surveyed 140 rural farm households to determine factors affecting food security resilience in the Peanut Belt of Senegal. The methods of analysis are PCA and regression analysis.
The results show income diversification, targeted relief, the number of people employed in the family, the use of organic fertilizer, and the age of the household head have a positive impact on farmers' food resilience.

Using survey data for firms from Eastern European transition economies we investigate the determinants of credit rationing. Our rationing definition incorporates firms whose loan application was rejected, but also ‘discouraged’ potential borrowers. We employ a bivariate probit with censoring, approach that accounts for the underlying selectivity since rationed firms are a subset of those without a loan. We include firm-specific attributes related to the alleviation of informational asymmetries, and therefore expected to affect credit rationing. We find that credit rationing depends on firm size, profitability, sales growth, ownership type, legal status, sectoral heterogeneity and the country-specific level of domestic credit.

Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk mengetahui fenomena plypaper effect pada belanja daerah kabupaten/kota di Propinsi Sulawesi Tenggara. Penelitian ini menggunakan data sekunder dengan mengamati data PAD, DAU dan Belanja Daerah Kab/Kota di Sulawesi Tenggara selama kurun waktu 2010-2013 . A nalisis data yang digunakan adalah analisis regresi data panel . Hasil penelitian menunjukkan bahwa dalam periode 2010-2013 terdeteksi adanya flypaper effect pada belanja daerah kabupaten/kota di Sulawesi Tenggara yang mengindikasikan bahwa dalam periode pengamatan Pemerintah Daerah Kabupaten/Kota di Sulawesi Tenggara terjadi inefisiensi penggunaan dana belanja daerah.

We analyse the nature of interindustry wage differentials using Portuguese data. Es- timates from models controlling for observed worker and firm characteristics reveal sig- nificant and persistent raw interindustry di¤erentials, which questions the competitive model of the labour market. However, estimates controlling for unobserved worker het- erogeneity suggest that the raw di¤erentials are due to the concentration of high wage workers in certain industries and not to genuine di¤erences in compensation across industries. However, a complete decomposition shows that (i) firm effects on average explain 70% of the industry wage premia, and (ii) genuine and sizeable interindustry wage differentials exist. These di¤erentials are shown to increase the time to separation from firms, and are therefore compatible with the competitive model.

Improving rural farmers’ access to direct agricultural markets is required to ensure sustainable supply of food. Rural farmers in the developing world account for the largest share of food supply including cassava. Globally, cassava (Manihot esculenta Crantz) is recognised as an important source of valuable semi-processed industrial raw materials such as ethanol, high-quality cassava flour and starch. However, there is less empirical research on rural farmers’ participation in direct marketing channels in the cassava sector. This study focused on analysing the determinants of farmer participation in direct marketing channels using the case of the cassava sector in the Oyo State of Nigeria. The Bivariate Tobit model was applied in the empirical analysis, based on a primary dataset generated from 400 rural cassava farmers from the Oyo State of Nigeria. The result showed that, in general, farmers sold a higher percentage of their cassava output to processors. The Bivariate Tobit result...

Ce travail explore la dynamique de production résidentielle de la cassitérite en République Démocratique du Congo à l'aide de données mensuelles tirées du bulletin mensuel d'informations statistiques de la Banque Centrale du Congo de Mars 2016 pour la période allant de Janvier 2012 à Décembre 2015. Nous considérons un modèle auto-projectif en analyse de séries temporelles : le modèle ARIMA. L'analyse et la prévision de la production de la cassitérite se fera par la méthodologie de Box et Jenkins(1976). Abstract This work explores the dynamic residential production of cassiterite in the DRC using monthly data from the monthly bulletin of statistical information of the Central Bank of Congo in March 2016 for the period from January 2012 to December 2015. We consider a self-projective model in time series analysis : the ARIMA model. The analysis and forecasting of production of cassiterite will be through the methodology of Box and Jenkins (1976).

Using survey data for firms from Eastern European transition economies we investigate the determinants of credit rationing. Our rationing definition incorporates firms whose loan application was rejected, but also 'discouraged' potential borrowers. We employ a bivariate probit with censoring, approach that accounts for the underlying selectivity since rationed firms are a subset of those without a loan. We include firm-specific attributes related to the alleviation of informational asymmetries, and therefore expected to affect credit rationing. We find that credit rationing depends on firm size, profitability, sales growth, ownership type, legal status, sectoral heterogeneity and the country-specific level of domestic credit.

Poor people often have just hand to mouth existence and have few reserves for major expenses such as illness, weddings, house repairs or education. They are unable to build their savings and are forced to borrow at exorbitant rates. This further adds to their burden and worsens their economic situation.

This paper identifies and compares the determinants of within- and between-firm job mobility in Portugal. Estimates are based on models that distinguish promotions by whether or not they involve a change in the tasks performed, and separations by the time workers take to enter a new firm. Both worker and firm observed characteristics emerge as important factors in the analysis. Firm unobserved heterogeneity is relevant, evidence suggests that firms vary more in their unobserved propensity to promote than in the case of separations. Overall, this study highlights two main issues; the role of firms in the process of job mobility, and the importance of distinguishing not only between types of separations from firms, but also between types of promotions within firms.

We investigate the returns to promotions and separations from firms using Portuguese linked employer-employee data. More than 90% of the total variation in wages can be ex- plained by observed and unobserved characteristics of workers and firms. Taken together, worker and firm unobserved effects explain more than half of the variation of wages for all types of job mobility. Our results suggest that promoted workers are high wage workers in high wage firms. Movers are inherently lower wage workers, in lower wage firms. However, on average, workers that find a new job within one year enter firms that pay higher wages. This is not true for workers that take more than a year to find a new job.

We analyse the nature of interindustry wage differentials using Portuguese data. Estimates from models controlling for observed worker and firm characteristics reveal significant and persistent raw interindustry differentials, which questions the competitive model of the labour market. However, estimates controlling for unobserved worker heterogeneity suggest that the raw differentials are due to the concentration of high wage workers in certain industries and not to genuine differences in compensation across industries. However, a complete decomposition shows that (i) firm effects on average explain 70% of the industry wage premia, and (ii) genuine and sizeable interindustry wage differentials exist. These differentials are shown to increase the time to separation from firms, and are therefore compatible with the competitive model.

for helpful suggestions. The views expressed herein are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of the National Bureau of Economic Research. NBER working papers are circulated for discussion and comment purposes. They have not been peerreviewed or been subject to the review by the NBER Board of Directors that accompanies official NBER publications.

This study examined the determinants of food price inflation and its impact on the economy of PNG from 2001 to 2011 (10 years) using time series data. Secondary data obtained from credible sources such as BPNG, ADB, WB, and IMF were analysed using various econometric test such as the Johansen Test for Cointergration, Augmented Dickey Fuller Test and the Vector Error Correction Model. The econometric tests revealed that there is a long run relationship (causality) between the variables real exchange rate and wheat price which significantly influenced food price inflation in PNG. There is a negative correlation between money supply and interest rate which negatively impacted food price inflation in the country. In the short run, real exchange rate, money supply, real interest rate and wheat price do not significantly affect food inflation as their corresponding p-values are greater than five percent (5%) critical value. Alternatively, there is a long run relationship or causality between GDP, real exchange rate, real interest and food price inflation. However, food inflation has a negative correlation with Real GDP in the long run. Therefore the overall findings of the study concluded that food price inflation is caused by long run relationship among the study variables and food inflation has a long run relationship with real GDP. It is recommended that the government should focus attention on the agriculture sector (food security) at the strategic and sectoral level and work in alignment with the PNG Vision 2050, National Security Policy, Monetary and Fiscal Policy, Social Protection Policy, Transport Security Policy and other food policies in PNG in order to deal with high food inflation in the country.

Improving rural farmers’ access to direct agricultural markets is required to ensure sustainable supply of food. Rural farmers in the developing world account for the largest share of food supply including cassava. Globally, cassava (Manihot esculenta Crantz) is recognised as an important source of valuable semi-processed industrial raw materials such as ethanol, high-quality cassava flour and starch. However, there is less empirical research on rural farmers’ participation in direct marketing channels in the cassava sector. This study focused on analysing the determinants of farmer participation in direct marketing channels using the case of the cassava sector in the Oyo State of Nigeria. The Bivariate Tobit model was applied in the empirical analysis, based on a primary dataset generated from 400 rural cassava farmers from the Oyo State of Nigeria. The result showed that, in general, farmers sold a higher percentage of their cassava output to processors. The Bivariate Tobit result...

We examine whether data routinely collected in household surveys and surveys of workers can be used to construct a measure of underlying match quality between worker and firm which helps test matching models and predict subsequent labour market outcomes of workers. We use subjective data from employees both on reported levels of job satisfaction with various aspects of the current job and on whether they would like a new job with a new employer to construct a measure of underlying match quality. We then use this to test several implications of matching models relating to wage-tenure profiles, wages, separations.

This study examined the determinants of food price inflation and its impact on the economy of PNG from 2001 to 2011 (10 years) using time series data. Secondary data obtained from credible sources such as BPNG, ADB, WB, and IMF were analysed using various econometric test such as the Johansen Test for Cointergration, Augmented Dickey Fuller Test and the Vector Error Correction Model. The econometric tests revealed that there is a long run relationship (causality) between the variables real exchange rate and wheat price which significantly influenced food price inflation in PNG. There is a negative correlation between money supply and interest rate which negatively impacted food price inflation in the country. In the short run, real exchange rate, money supply, real interest rate and wheat price do not significantly affect food inflation as their corresponding p-values are greater than five percent (5%) critical value. Alternatively, there is a long run relationship or causality between GDP, real exchange rate, real interest and food price inflation. However, food inflation has a negative correlation with Real GDP in the long run. Therefore the overall findings of the study concluded that food price inflation is caused by long run relationship among the study variables and food inflation has a long run relationship with real GDP. It is recommended that the government should focus attention on the agriculture sector (food security) at the strategic and sectoral level and work in alignment with the PNG Vision 2050, National Security Policy, Monetary and Fiscal Policy, Social Protection Policy, Transport Security Policy and other food policies in PNG in order to deal with high food inflation in the country.

Climate change is a major development challenge affecting developing countries that rely on rain-fed agricultural production for food and income. Smallholder farmers in these countries are using multiple adaptation practices to manage the effects of climate change. This chapter examines household and community-level factors that influence smallholder farmers’ level of adaptation to climate change in the Hwedza District in Zimbabwe. Data for this study were collected from 400 randomly selected smallholder farmers, using a structured questionnaire, focus group discussions, and key informant interviews. The study used a multilevel modeling approach to examine the factors that influence smallholder farmers’ level of adaptation to climate change. Results from the study show that smallholder farmers’ level of adaptation to climate change is conditioned by access to extension services, access to remittances, family labor, household education  (household level factors), and linking capital (community-level factor). This
chapter therefore concludes that smallholder farmers that have higher levels of adaptation to climate change are those that are well linked to external organizations and have access to agricultural extension services. The chapter recommends that adaptation to climate change can be enhanced by improving access to agricultural extension services and promoting linkages with external organizations that provide information on agricultural adaptation practices.

This paper discusses the impact of exchange rates on the export performance of selected Southeast Asian economies, namely, Indonesia, Malaysia, Singapore and Thailand. We construct an empirical model to account for the role of the real exchange rate and other economic fundamentals such as macroeconomic stability, terms of trade, capital goods investment, external demand and human capital. The study makes use of a panel data and estimates an export equation using a fixed effect model. The findings in this study strongly corroborate results from the theoretical framework that exchange rate misalignment and exchange rate variability have significant impacts on export performance. The study also finds evidence that the export growth path or these selected economies are dependent on global demand conditions, especially demand from OECD countries.

The study examines how the recent economic crisis and the related unfavourable economic
features affect poverty. As economic crisis is usually associated with many economic and
social problems, it tries to determine to what extent it influences poverty. The paper
attempts to prove that economic recession contributes not only to the impoverishment of a
significant section of society, but also increases the depth of poverty significantly. If the
research supports this hypothesis, it is worth examining to what extent one percent
economic growth or economic decline can decrease or increase the rate of the poor and the
depth of poverty. Besides the effect of economic growth on the given area, the paper also
analyses the effect of the economic growth of the neighbouring areas. The initial
hypothesis states that the economic growth of the neighbouring regions can also alleviate
poverty. As for spatial effects, spatial autocorrelation is examined in the average income
level to reveal how the economic growth of the neighbouring areas affects a given region.
The study examines Northern Hungary, one of the most backward regions in Hungary
(based on GDP per capita). Eurostat (2010) reports this region is among the poorest twenty
regions within the European Union (based on GDP per capita PPP, Northern Hungary is
the 259th among the 271 regions of the European Union).