Population Size Estimation

We assessed the impact of domestic cats on population persistence of native and exotic urban bird populations using a model adjusted for habitat-specific catch rates, cat ownership and hunting activity data. GPS-derived home ranges of 32 cats and resource selection indices demonstrated the degree of penetration and preference for native vegetation fragments. Owners reported on prey brought back by 144 domestic cats in Dunedin, New Zealand, during 12 months. One third of cats never brought back prey, and 21% returned more than one item/month. Cats brought back a mean of 13.4 prey items/year (median = 4), with cats aged <1 year returning more prey than older cats. Birds were the most common prey, followed by rodents. Although cats penetrated adjacent vegetation fragments they did not catch more birds and preferred garden habitat, suggesting that predation pressure may be reduced in fragments. Cat home range size appears to be constrained by cat density while the number of birds caught depends on the density of available prey. Estimates of city-wide catch for six bird species were either more than total urban population size estimates or close to lower confidence intervals. Modelling of three species indicated low likelihood of population persistence with cat predation. The observed persistence of these prey species suggests a meta-population structure with urban populations acting as sinks with source populations located on the city fringe.

We assessed the impact of domestic cats on population persistence of native and exotic urban bird populations using a model adjusted for habitat-specific catch rates, cat ownership and hunting activity data. GPS-derived home ranges of 32 cats and resource selection indices demonstrated the degree of penetration and preference for native vegetation fragments. Owners reported on prey brought back by 144 domestic cats in Dunedin, New Zealand, during 12 months. One third of cats never brought back prey, and 21% returned more than one item/month. Cats brought back a mean of 13.4 prey items/year (median = 4), with cats aged <1 year returning more prey than older cats. Birds were the most common prey, followed by rodents. Although cats penetrated adjacent vegetation fragments they did not catch more birds and preferred garden habitat, suggesting that predation pressure may be reduced in fragments. Cat home range size appears to be constrained by cat density while the number of birds caught depends on the density of available prey. Estimates of city-wide catch for six bird species were either more than total urban population size estimates or close to lower confidence intervals. Modelling of three species indicated low likelihood of population persistence with cat predation. The observed persistence of these prey species suggests a meta-population structure with urban populations acting as sinks with source populations located on the city fringe.

The transition from an arid, glacial Late Pleistocene to an early Holocene (Gamblian ‘pluvial’) moist period has not been documented in Central America. Finding accessible volcanic lakes too youthful, and knowing that most Florida and Yucatan lakes were dry during glacial ages, we sought appropriate deposits lying deeper than 40 m in the deeper karst lakes of the Peten, in

Considerable phylogeographic and population genetic research has been conducted on marine turtles. Less attention, however, has been paid to the historical patterns and processes that have led to present patterns of genetic structure, and particularly, how these populations have responded to major climatic changes in the past. To address these questions, we analyzed previously published mitochondrial haplotype data independently for three marine turtle species, the loggerhead (Caretta caretta), hawksbill (Eretmochelys imbricata), and green turtle (Chelonia mydas). Considering all three species, we conducted analyses on a total of 657 individuals from 36 nesting beaches in the Atlantic and Mediterranean. Our results suggest that much of the contemporary genetic structure has been significantly affected by complex patterns of historical population subdivision, long-distance dispersal, and restricted geneflow. These inferences also imply that the climatic and sea level fluctuations during the Pleistocene may have had contrasting effects on genetic structure (e.g., fragmenting versus homogenizing) and on population sizes. Estimates of historical and current effective population sizes further highlight differential demographic responses across species to historical climatic cycles. Collectively, our results provide evidence for the occurrence of historical refugia through climatic cycles and complex historical metapopulation dynamics, and identify common and unique patterns of metapopulation structure across species. These historical patterns provide a basis for predictive estimates of metapopulation responses to habitat loss, population extirpation, and global climatic change.

Habitat fragmentation is one of the major contributors to the loss of biodiversity worldwide. However, relatively little is known about its more immediate impacts on within-patch population processes such as social structure and mating systems, whose alteration may play an important role in extinction risk. We investigated the impacts of habitat fragmentation due to the establishment of an exotic softwood plantation on the social kin structure and breeding system of the Australian marsupial carnivore, Antechinus agilis . Restricted dispersal by males in fragmented habitat resulted in elevated relatedness among potential mates in populations in fragments, potentially increasing the risk of inbreeding. Antechinus agilis nests communally in tree hollows; these nests are important points for social contact between males and females in the mating season. In response to elevated relatedness among potential mates in fragmented habitat, A. agilis significantly avoided sharing nests with opposite-sex relatives in large fragment sites (but not in small ones, possibly due to limited nest locations and small population sizes). Because opposite-sex individuals shared nests randomly with respect to relatedness in unfragmented habitat, we interpreted the phenomenon in fragmented habitat as a precursor to inbreeding avoidance via mate choice. Despite evidence that female A. agilis at high inbreeding risk selected relatively unrelated mates, there was no overall increased avoidance of related mates by females in fragmented habitats compared to unfragmented habitats. Simulations indicated that only dispersal, and not nonrandom mating, contributed to inbreeding avoidance in either habitat context. However, habitat fragmentation did influence the mating system in that the degree of multiple paternity was reduced due to the reduction in population sizes and population connectivity. This, in turn, reduced the number of males available to females in the breeding season. This suggests that in addition to the obvious impacts of reduced recruitment, patch recolonization and increased genetic drift, the isolation of populations in habitat patches may cause changes in breeding behaviour that contribute to the negative impacts of habitat fragmentation.

Noninvasive genetic methods can be used to estimate animal abundances and offer several advantages over conventional methods. Few attempts have been made, however, to evaluate the accuracy and precision of the estimates. We compared four methods of estimating population size based on fecal sampling. Two methods used rarefaction indices and two were based on capture-mark-recapture (CMR) estimators, one combining genetic and field data. Volunteer hunters and others collected 1904 fecal samples over 2 consecutive years in a large area containing a well-studied population of brown bears (Ursus arctos). On our 49,000-km 2 study area in south-central Sweden, population size estimates ranged from 378 to 572 bears in 2001 and 273 to 433 bears in 2002, depending on the method of estimation used. The estimates from the best model in the program MARK appeared to be the most accurate, based on the minimum population size estimate from radio-marked bears in a subsection of our sampling area. In addition, MARK models included heterogeneity and temporal variation in detection probabilities, which appeared to be present in our samples. All methods, though, incorrectly suggested a biased sex ratio, probably because of sex differences in detection probabilities and low overall detection probabilities. The population size of elusive animals can be estimated reliably over large areas with noninvasive genetic methods, but we stress the importance of an adequate and well-distributed sampling effort. In cases of biased sampling, calibration with independent estimates may be necessary. We recommend that this noninvasive genetic approach, using the MARK models, be used in the future in areas where sufficient numbers of volunteers can be mobilized.

The great Indian bustard (Ardeotis nigriceps) is an endemic endangered bird of the Indian subcontinent with a declining population, as a result of hunting and continuing habitat loss. In this first genetic study of this little-known species, we investigate the diversity of the mitochondrial DNA (hypervariable control region II and cytochrome b gene) among samples (n = 63) from five states within the current distribution range of great Indian bustards in India. We find just three haplotypes defined by three variable sites, a comparatively low genetic diversity of π = 0.0021 ± 0.0012 for cytochrome b, 0.0008 ± 0.0007 for the control region (CR), and 0.0017 ± 0.0069 for combined regions and no phylogeographic structure between populations. We provide evidence for a bottleneck event, estimate an effective population size (Ne) that is roughly concordant with recent population size estimates based on field surveys (~200 to 400), but extremely low for a widely distributed species. We also discuss the conservation implications. Based on our findings, we strongly recommend upgrading the IUCN threat status from Endangered to Critically Endangered.

Laboratoire des reptiles et amphibiens, Systématique et évolution, Muséum national d'histoire naturelle, CP 30, 25 rue Cuvier, 75005 Paris ([email protected] ; [email protected]) Dubois, A. & A. Ohler, 2009. A quick method for a rough estimate of the size of a small and threatened animal population: the case of the relict Ichthyosaura alpestris inexpectata in southern Italy. Bulletin de la Société des naturalistes luxembourgeois 110: 115-123.

Determining population sizes can be difficult, but is essential for conservation. By counting distinct microsatellite genotypes, DNA from noninvasive samples (hair, faeces) allows estimation of population size. Problems arise because genotypes from noninvasive samples are error-prone, but genotyping errors can be reduced by multiple polymerase chain reaction (PCR). For faecal genotypes from wolves in Yellowstone National Park, error rates varied substantially among samples, often above the 'worst-case threshold' suggested by simulation. Consequently, a substantial proportion of multilocus genotypes held one or more errors, despite multiple PCR. These genotyping errors created several genotypes per individual and caused overestimation (up to 5.5-fold) of population size. We propose a 'matching approach' to eliminate this overestimation bias.

Population size information is critical for managing endangered or harvested populations. Population size can now be estimated from non-invasive genetic sampling. However, pitfalls remain such as genotyping errors (allele dropout and false alleles at microsatellite loci). To evaluate the feasibility of non-invasive sampling (e.g., for population size estimation), a pilot study is required. Here, we present a pilot study consisting of (i) a genetic step to test loci amplification and to estimate allele frequencies and genotyping error rates when using faecal DNA, and (ii) a simulation step to quantify and minimise the effects of errors on estimates of population size. The pilot study was conducted on a population of red deer in a fenced natural area of 5440 ha, in France. Twelve microsatellite loci were tested for amplification and genotyping errors. The genotyping error rates for microsatellite loci were 0-0.83 (mean=0.2) for allele dropout rates and 0-0.14 (mean=0.02) for false allele rates, comparable to rates encountered in other non-invasive studies. Simulation results suggest we must conduct 6 PCR amplifications per sample (per locus) to achieve approximately 97% correct genotypes. The 3% error rate appears to have little influence on the accuracy and precision of population size estimation. This paper illustrates the importance of conducting a pilot study (including genotyping and simulations) when using non-invasive sampling to study threatened or managed populations.

The Plain Pigeon (Columba inornata) was listed as endangered in Puerto Rico in 1970. During 1986 and 1997, we collected point transect survey data to estimate density, population size, and rate of change. Density and population size estimates increased between 1986-1992 and 1997-2001. With a mean density of 0.25 :!: 0.06 SE individuals/ha and a mean population size in the area of the surveys of 3,746 :!: 892 SE individuals during 1997-2001, we believe that the status of the Plain Pigeon is not as precarious as it was during 1986-1992, when mean density was 0.02 :!: 0.003 SE individualslha and mean population size in the area of the surveys was 218 :!: 42 SE individuals. However, Plain Pigeons are not widely distributed and the loss and fragmentation of second growth forests combined with the effects of hurricanes and other factors may cause their extinction. Because Plain Pigeons have a spatially clumped distribution, we recommend sampling at least 1,195 points during peak nesting activity (March through June) throughout the island, with at least 526 points covering areas of abundance in eastcentral Puerto Rico, to monitor population changes and evaluate the effectiveness of management actions.

A method is presented to derive point and interval estimates of the total number of individuals in a heterogenous Poisson population. The method is based on the Horvitz-Thompson approach. The zerotruncated Poisson regression model is tted and results are used to obtain point and interval estimates for the total number of individuals in the popula tion. The method is assessed by performing a simulation experiment computing coverage probabilities of Horvitz-Thompson con dence intervals for cases with different sample sizes and Poisson parameters. We illustrate our method using capture-recapture data from the police registration system providing information on illegal immigrants in four large cities in the Netherlands.

The red-crested pochard, a Eurasian diving duck, has seen its numbers declining and has received strong conservation concern. Data on population size and rate of decline are required to establish management plans, none of which is available for this species. Here we present the first population size estimate taking into account detection probability and habitat use in the Camargue, southern France. A non-random sample of 33 lakes was used to estimate detection probability from point-counts. Detectability was low, with only 57.5% of individual broods detected. A random sample of 37 lakes was then used to estimate brood densities. Adjusted densities (taking into account detection probability) were 0.1106 broods per hectare of reedbed. Adjusted densities were extrapolated to the entire surface area of reedbeds in the Camargue estimated from a GIS to obtain abundance estimates of the brood population. A minimum estimate of 559 breeding pairs was obtained (95% confidence interval: 436-855). This estimate is much higher than previous ones (80-100 pairs for the Camargue, 250 pairs for France), and indicates strong underestimation of the population size when not taking into account detectability. Our results suggest that the red-crested pochard may require a reassessment of its conservation status for France and Europe. They further suggest that taking detection probability into account in population estimates of other cryptic species, and notably those of conservation concern, may help clarify their conservation status and may even affect the setting of conservation priorities.

Before, during and after habitat restoration from 1984 to 1994, we monitored population size of the federally listed endangered El Segundo blue butterfly, Euphilotes bernardino allyni (Shields). In the subsequent formalization of a recovery plan for the species, the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service established several recovery criteria, including a requirement of 'a scientifically credible monitoring plan' to track population size annually. To avoid detrimental effects of the extensively used mark-release-recapture method on the delicate El Segundo blue butterfly, which would conflict with protection afforded by the Endangered Species Act, we chose instead to perform transect counts to estimate relative population size. Herein, we analyze the results of our transect counts by three different methods, developed by or modified from Pollard, Watt et al. and Zonneveld. Qualitatively, the three methods, which have different assumptions, produced similar results when applied to the same data. Zonneveld's model estimates death rate in addition to an index of population size, thus providing more information than the other two methods. The El Segundo blue butterfly's sedentary nature and the close relationship of its adult and early stages to one foodplant permits extrapolation of the index of population size based on transect counts, to an estimate of actual population size. Our data document butterfly numbers increasing from 1984 to 1989, but then declining until the end of our observations in 1994. Based on analysis of our El Segundo blue butterfly data, we propose an implementation of a scientifically credible monitoring plan.

Population census size (N C ) and effective population sizes (N e ) are two crucial parameters that influence population viability, wildlife management decisions, and conservation planning. Genetic estimators of both N C and N e are increasingly widely used because molecular markers are increasingly available, statistical methods are improving rapidly, and genetic estimators complement or improve upon traditional demographic estimators. We review the kinds and applications of estimators of both N C and N e , and the often undervalued and misunderstood ratio of effective-to-census size (N e /N C ). We focus on recently improved and well evaluated methods that are most likely to facilitate conservation. Finally, we outline areas of future research to improve N e and N C estimation in wild populations.

In this paper, we characterise three sex-specific genes (ZFX/Y, SRY, AMLX/Y) for all eight extant bear species and propose a new, robust and accurate molecular procedure to identify the sex of bears from non-invasive samples and fossil remains. These materials contain tiny amounts of poorly preserved deoxyribonucleic acid (DNA), leaving Polymerase Chain Reaction (PCR) amplification very prone to contamination and difficult to analyse. By taking into account the ancient DNA requirements, the duplex procedures that we developed are efficient not only on DNA extracted from bear faeces but also on ancient DNA extracted from a brown bear fossil 7,500 years old. Defined specifically for ursids, the procedure for faecal samples (co-amplification of ZFX/Y and SRY markers) appears more accurate than other published procedures, as it prevents cross-amplification of potential ingested prey and contamination (19 non-ursid species tested). This system can be applied to threatened bear populations to improve the reliability of sex-ratio and population-size estimates based on non-invasive samples.

The great Indian bustard (Ardeotis nigriceps) is an endemic endangered bird of the Indian subcontinent with a declining population, as a result of hunting and continuing habitat loss. In this first genetic study of this little-known species, we investigate the diversity of the mitochondrial DNA (hypervariable control region II and cytochrome b gene) among samples (n = 63) from five states within the current distribution range of great Indian bustards in India. We find just three haplotypes defined by three variable sites, a comparatively low genetic diversity of p = 0.0021 ± 0.0012 for cytochrome b, 0.0008 ± 0.0007 for the control region (CR), and 0.0017 ± 0.0069 for combined regions and no phylogeographic structure between populations. We provide evidence for a bottleneck event, estimate an effective population size (Ne) that is roughly concordant with recent population size estimates based on field surveys (*200 to 400), but extremely low for a widely distributed species. We also discuss the conservation implications. Based on our findings, we strongly recommend upgrading the IUCN threat status from Endangered to Critically Endangered.

Background: Gay, bisexual, and other cisgender men who have sex with men (GBMSM) are disproportionately affected by the HIV pandemic. Traditionally, GBMSM have been deemed less relevant in HIV epidemics in low- and middle-income settings where HIV epidemics are more generalized. This is due (in part) to how important population size estimates regarding the number of individuals who identify as GBMSM are to informing the development and monitoring of HIV prevention, treatment, and care programs and coverage. However, pervasive stigma and criminalization of same-sex practices and relationships provide a challenging environment for population enumeration, and these factors have been associated with implausibly low or absent size estimates of GBMSM, thereby limiting knowledge about the dynamics of HIV transmission and the implementation of programs addressing GBMSM.

Objective: This study leverages estimates of the number of members of a social app geared towards gay men (Hornet) and members of Facebook using self-reported relationship interests in men, men and women, and those with at least one reported same-sex interest. Results were categorized by country of residence to validate official size estimates of GBMSM in 13 countries across five continents.

Methods: Data were collected through the Hornet Gay Social Network and by using an a priori determined framework to estimate the numbers of Facebook members with interests associated with GBMSM in South Africa, Ghana, Nigeria, Senegal, Côte d'Ivoire, Mauritania, The Gambia, Lebanon, Thailand, Malaysia, Brazil, Ukraine, and the United States. These estimates were compared with the most recent Joint United Nations Programme on HIV/AIDS (UNAIDS) and national estimates across 143 countries.

Results: The estimates that leveraged social media apps for the number of GBMSM across countries are consistently far higher than official UNAIDS estimates. Using Facebook, it is also feasible to assess the numbers of GBMSM aged 13-17 years, which demonstrate similar proportions to those of older men. There is greater consistency in Facebook estimates of GBMSM compared to UNAIDS-reported estimates across countries.

Conclusions: The ability to use social media for epidemiologic and HIV prevention, treatment, and care needs continues to improve. Here, a method leveraging different categories of same-sex interests on Facebook, combined with a specific gay-oriented app (Hornet), demonstrated significantly higher estimates than those officially reported. While there are biases in this approach, these data reinforce the need for multiple methods to be used to count the number of GBMSM (especially in more stigmatizing settings) to better inform mathematical models and the scale of HIV program coverage. Moreover, these estimates can inform programs for those aged 13-17 years; a group for which HIV incidence is the highest and HIV prevention program coverage, including the availability of pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP), is lowest. Taken together, these results highlight the potential for social media to provide comparable estimates of the number of GBMSM across a large range of countries, including some with no reported estimates.

The great Indian bustard (Ardeotis nigriceps) is an endemic endangered bird of the Indian subcontinent with a declining population, as a result of hunting and continuing habitat loss. In this first genetic study of this little-known species, we investigate the diversity of the mitochondrial DNA (hypervariable control region II and cytochrome b gene) among samples (n = 63) from five states within the current distribution range of great Indian bustards in India. We find just three haplotypes defined by three variable sites, a comparatively low genetic diversity of π = 0.0021 ± 0.0012 for cytochrome b, 0.0008 ± 0.0007 for the control region (CR), and 0.0017 ± 0.0069 for combined regions and no phylogeographic structure between populations. We provide evidence for a bottleneck event, estimate an effective population size (Ne) that is roughly concordant with recent population size estimates based on field surveys (~200 to 400), but extremely low for a widely distributed species. We also discuss the conservation implications. Based on our findings, we strongly recommend upgrading the IUCN threat status from Endangered to Critically Endangered.

The size of an animal population can be rather accurately estimated by a mark- recapture method, but this may have a negative impact on survivorship of marked speci- mens. This should be avoided especially in the case of small endangered populations. We here propose a new method, the species capture ratio, for a quick and rough population size estimate, that

Having estimations of the size of populations is critical to estimate universes of need, plan and evaluate interventions. Stigmatization and criminalization of drug use in Mexico makes PWID constitute a hard-to-reach population; however, they have a right to health and it is an obligation of the State to guarantee it, which includes designing effective actions to prevent AIDS. In Hermosillo, Sonora, the weight of HIV transmission via injecting drug use has gained prominence in the last decade; nevertheless, there are no estimations of PWID population size. In this paper we describe in detail how to build a mixed approach combining qualitative and quantitative techniques to estimate the population size of PWID in Hermosillo. We present recommendations to improve PWID registration systems in addiction treatment services and how to improve community harm reduction interventions in the city

In the presence of continuous covariates, standard capture-recapture methods assume either that the registrations operate independently at the individual level or that the covariates can be stratified and log-linear models fitted, permitting the modelling of dependence between data sources. This article introduces an approach where direct dependence between registrations is modelled leaving the continuous covariates in their measurement scale. Simulations show that not accounting for possible dependence between registrations results in biased estimation of both the population size and standard error. The proposed method is applied to Dutch neural tube defect registration data.

We identified cases where the Jolly-Seber estimator of population size is biased under tag loss and tag-induced mortality by examining the mathematical arguments and performing computer simulations. We found that, except under certain tag-loss models and high sam- ple sizes, the population size estimators (uncorrected for tag loss) are severely biased high when tag loss or tag-induced mortality occurs. Our

We used non-invasive DNA hair-sampling and catch per unit effort (CPUE: grizzly bears detected per 1000 trap nights) to estimate relative density and population size for a threatened grizzly bear population in the North Cascade Ecosystem of Washington and British Columbia. We used linear, logistic, and linear through the origin regression analyses to estimate the relationship between catch per unit effort and grizzly bear density for seven other grizzly populations. One grizzly bear was detected during 5304 trap nights (CPUE=0.19) over 3 years in the North Cascades. This CPUE was much lower than in the other seven populations, including two threatened grizzly populations in the Cabinet-Yaak and Selkirk Mountain Ecosystems. The logistic model (curvilinear relationship) best fit the data (R 2 =0.927), and yielded density and population size estimates of 0.15 bears/100 km 2 (90% CI=0.03-0.71) and six bears (90% CI=1-27), respectively. Natural recovery seems unlikely for the North Cascade grizzly bear population because the population has a high likelihood of extinction due to demographic and environmental stochastic effects associated with extremely small population numbers. We recommend population augmentation. DNA hair-sampling and catch per unit effort models can be a useful method to evaluate relative densities and numbers of animals in small, threatened grizzly bear populations when sample sizes are too small to yield traditional mark-recapture analysis. #

Hector's dolphin Cephalorhynchus hectori is found only in New Zealand waters. We carried out a population survey of the North Island subspecies Cephalorhychus hectori maui, also known as Maui's dolphin. The total population size estimate is 111 individuals (95% confidence interval = 48-252). The small population size confirms its critically endangered IUCN status. A sustainable level of human-caused mortality for this population would be 0.16 (one dolphin every 6.4 years). This essentially means that fisheries bycatch, and where possible other human impacts, need to be eliminated to allow population recovery. A protected area has been created to reduce the threat from entanglement in fishing gear. Gillnet fishing is prohibited along a 210 nautical mile stretch of coastline. The main concerns are that gillnet fishing is still allowed inside harbours and trawling continues inside the protected area.

The control of fishing mortality via fishing effort remains fundamental to most fisheries management strategies even at the local community or co-management level. Decisions to support such strategies require knowledge of the underlying response of the catch to changes in effort. Even under adaptive management strategies, imprecise knowledge of the response is likely to help accelerate the adaptive learning process. Data and institutional capacity requirements to employ multi-species biomass dynamics and age-structured models invariably render their use impractical particularly in less developed regions of the world. Surplus production models fitted to catch and effort data aggregated across all species offer viable alternatives. The current paper seeks models of this type that best describe the multi-species catch-effort responses in floodplain-rivers, lakes and reservoirs and reef-based fisheries based upon among fishery comparisons, building on earlier work. Three alternative surplus production models were fitted to estimates of catch per unit area (CPUA) and fisher density for 258 fisheries in Africa, Asia and South America.

Snakes have recently been proposed as model organisms for addressing both evolutionary and ecological questions. Because of their middle position in many food webs they may be useful indicators of trophic complexity and dynamics. However, reliable data on snake populations are rare due to the challenges of sampling these patchily distributed, cryptic, and often nocturnal species and also due to their underrepresentation in the ecological literature. Studying a diurnally active stream-associated population of garter snakes has allowed us to avoid some of these problems so that we could focus on issues of sampling design and its influence on resulting demographic models and estimates. From 1986 to 2001, we gathered data on a population of the Pacific coast aquatic garter snake (Thamnophis atratus) in northwestern California by conducting 3-5 surveys of the population annually. We derived estimates for sex-specific survival rates and time-dependent capture probabilities using population analysis software and examined the relationship between our calculated capture probabilities and variability in sampling effort. We also developed population size and density estimates and compared these estimates to simple count data (often used for wildlife population monitoring). Over the 16-yr period of our study, we marked 1730 snakes and had annual recapture rates ranging from 13% to 32%. The best approximating demographic model for our data demonstrated higher survival rates for females than males and showed low and annually variable capture probabilities for both. Annual population size estimates (converted to linear densities), ranged from 58 to 131 snakes/km. Mean annual field counts typically accounted for only 5-10% of the total population size estimated using capture-recapture models. We found no evidence for a changing population size throughout the study. We found a positive relationship between sampling effort and capture probabilities. We evaluate survey design options that would help us approach recommended levels of capture probabilities and thus increase the precision of our estimates, allowing derivation of more complex demographic models. Our results should be useful in the development of monitoring programs for snakes and other secretive wildlife species and provide target demographic rate values for restoration of related at-risk snake species.

We examined the growth rate of the breeding population of king penguins of Crozet archipelago over 41 years. Most colonies showed positive growth rates from the 1960s. However, there was evidence for a decrease in the larger colonies since the early 1990s, and for lower growth rates in the smaller colonies during the 1990s. The overall population size was estimated using log linear models, and the average annual growth rate was +6.3% for the 41-year period. Four change points were detected in the annual growth rate: +21.1% during 1978-1985, +4.3% during 1985-1995, À19.2% during 1995-1999, and +10.9% during 1999-2003. Time-series analyses of the population-size estimates and the relationship between growth rate and population size both indicated density-dependence in population growth rate. Variations in population sizes are also discussed in relation to environmental fluctuations. Our results suggest that important changes occurred over the past 10 years.

The removal method of population estimation was applied to populations of Blattella germanica (Dictyoptera: Blattellidae) aboard two ships. A preponderance of adult females was collected from both ships. A low frequency of females with oothecae indicated that many were senescent or were delaying reproduction. Instar determination was made by head capsule measurements. Female nymphs appeared to have six instars, whereas males had only five. Structure of the two ships' populations indicated that cockroaches were at near carrying capacity on the larger vessel, whereas the population on the smaller ship was less dense.
Calculation of the removal method estimators for the two populations indicated that adult females are more resistant to capture thlill nymphs or adult males. Significant bias in estimation of population size resulted if this factor was not accounted for. Both precollection and residual population size was estimated with coefficients of variation of 3 to 13%.

We study a continuous-time removal model for estimating the population size for a population in which a sub-population size ratio is known. The maximum likelihood estimate and the optimal martingale estimate of the population size are obtained; these are shown to be equivalent. A comparison between the proposed estimator and the maximum likelihood estimate which ignores the information on the known size ratio is made, using a simulation study. The asymptotic variances of these two estimators are also obtained, and a comparison between them is made. The sensitivity of mis-specification of the known size ratio is examined. We also apply the corresponding discrete-time model to the proposed continuous-time setting, and study the efficiency of the corresponding discrete-time type estimator relative to the proposed estimator.

An unsolved problem in the analysis of capture-recapture experiments is the estimation of the size of an open population when the capture probabilities are heterogeneous across the population. Here, we extend a kernel smoothing approach of Huggins and Yip (Biometrics 55 (1999) 387) to the martingale estimating functions based on sample coverage of Chao et al. (J. Statist. Plann. Inference 92 (2001) 213) and solve this problem when there are frequent capture occasions. Simulation results are shown to examine the performance of the proposed estimation procedure. A real data set is used for illustration.

Plasticity in population biology of Cherax cainii (Decapoda: Parastacidae) inhabiting lentic and lotic environments in southwestern Australia: Implications for the sustainable management of the recreational fishery. Fisheries Research, 110 (2). pp. 312-324.

Noninvasive genetic methods can be used to estimate animal abundances and offer several advantages over conventional methods. Few attempts have been made, however, to evaluate the accuracy and precision of the estimates. We compared four methods of estimating population size based on fecal sampling. Two methods used rarefaction indices and two were based on capture-mark-recapture (CMR) estimators, one combining genetic and field data. Volunteer hunters and others collected 1904 fecal samples over 2 consecutive years in a large area containing a well-studied population of brown bears (Ursus arctos). On our 49,000-km 2 study area in south-central Sweden, population size estimates ranged from 378 to 572 bears in 2001 and 273 to 433 bears in 2002, depending on the method of estimation used. The estimates from the best model in the program MARK appeared to be the most accurate, based on the minimum population size estimate from radio-marked bears in a subsection of our sampling area. In addition, MARK models included heterogeneity and temporal variation in detection probabilities, which appeared to be present in our samples. All methods, though, incorrectly suggested a biased sex ratio, probably because of sex differences in detection probabilities and low overall detection probabilities. The population size of elusive animals can be estimated reliably over large areas with noninvasive genetic methods, but we stress the importance of an adequate and well-distributed sampling effort. In cases of biased sampling, calibration with independent estimates may be necessary. We recommend that this noninvasive genetic approach, using the MARK models, be used in the future in areas where sufficient numbers of volunteers can be mobilized.

The scale-up method estimates the size of hard to count subpopulations. This method is based on the idea that the proportion of subjects in a subpopulation E known to each member of the general population T is the same as the proportion of members of E belonging to general population T.

Early and accurate estimation of software size plays an important role in facilitating effort and cost estimation of software systems. One of the commonly used methodologies for software size estimation is Function Point Analysis (FPA). The purpose of Software size estimation and effort estimation techniques is to provide a useful measure of the software complexities, efforts, and costs involved in software development. Despite almost three decades of research on software estimation, the research community has yet not able to provide a reliable estimation model for End-User Development (EUD) environments. EUD essentially out-sources development effort to the end user. Hence one element of the size and effort is the additional design time expended in end-user programming. This paper discusses the concept end-user programming and enhancement of FPA by adding end-user programming as an additional General System Characteristic (GSC). KEYWORDS size estimation, end user programming, function point analysis, end user development

Population size and factors affecting the density of the Peregrine Falcon Falco peregrinus in Spain. By means of bibliographical searches and requests of unpublished information from ornithologists and public administrations all over the country, the population size estimate of the Peregrine Falcon Falco peregrinus in Spain is updated. The Spanish population is estimated at 2435-2743 pairs, which represents a mean density of 5.1 pairs/1000 km 2 and increases in 50% the previous estimate. The Peregrine Falcon is more abundant in the regions with limestone substrate in the north and east of the country, whereas its density reaches the lowest level in the southwest quadrant, an area with few cliffs and good densities of potential competitors like the Bonelli's Eagle Hieraaetus fasciatus and the Eagle Owl Bubo bubo. In order to know the factors that could influence the species density, a multiple regression analysis was carried out with data from provinces with specific censuses or local atlases with good coverage. The resulting equation explained 68.67% of the total variance and included three predicting variables: type of geological substrate, length of seacliffs and latitude. This equation was used to check the reliability of the population estimates from provinces with poor quality data as well as to calculate the expected density in the two provinces for which only partial data were available. Overall, the recent trend of the Spanish population appears to be positive, although in several regions the species shows a downward trend attributable to the incidence of pesticides, nest-robbing and competence with the Eagle Owl.

A compartmental model was built in order to study the circulation and impact of Feline Leukemia Virus (FeLV) in populations of domestic cats. The model was tested with data from a long-term study of several feline populations. The study of stability shows that FeLV is maintained in the population with a stable equilibrium and a slight reduction of population size. Estimation of the transmission rate allows us to make a comparison with the values previously estimated in the literature. We compare the impact of mass vaccination or removal programmes in controlling FeLV infection, and conclude that vaccination is more efficient. ] 1997 Academic Press

Accurate population size estimates are an essential part of every effective management plan for conserving endangered species. However, censusing rare and elusive wild animals is challenging and often relies on counting indirect signs, such as nests or feces. Despite widespread use, the accuracy of such estimates has rarely been evaluated. Here we compare an estimate of population size derived solely from field data with that obtained from a combination of field and genetic data for the critically endangered population of mountain gorillas (Gorilla beringei beringei) in Bwindi Impenetrable National Park, Uganda. After genotyping DNA from 384 fecal samples at 16 microsatellite loci, the population size estimate was reduced by 10.1% to 302 individuals, compared with 336 gorillas estimated using the traditional nest-count based method alone. We found that both groups and lone silverbacks were double-counted in the field and that individuals constructed multiple nests with an overall rate of 7.8%, resulting in the overestimation of the population size in the absence of genetic data. Since the error associated with the traditional field method exceeded the estimated population growth of 5% in the last 4 years, future genetic censusing will be needed to determine how the population size is changing. This study illustrates that newly improved molecular methods allow fast, efficient and relatively affordable genotyping of several hundred samples, suggesting that genetic censusing can be widely applied to provide accurate and reliable population size estimates for a wide variety of species.

Evolutionary analyses have revealed an origin of pandemic HIV-1 group M in the Congo River basin in the first part of the XX century, but the patterns of historical viral spread in or around its epicentre remain largely unexplored. Here, we combine epidemiologic and molecular sequence data to investigate the spatiotemporal patterns of the CRF02_AG clade. By explicitly integrating prevalence counts and genetic population size estimates we date the epidemic emergence of CRF02_AG at 1973.1 (1972.1, 1975.3, 95% CI). To infer the phylogeographic signature of this clade at a regional scale, we analyze pol and env timestamped sequence data from 10 countries using a Bayesian phylogeographic approach based on an asymmetric discretized diffusion model. Our data confirms a spatial origin of CRF02_AG in the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) and suggests that viral dissemination to Cameroon occurred at an early stage of the evolutionary history of CRF02_AG. We find considerable support for epidemiological linkage between neighbour countries. Compilation of ethnographic data suggested that well-supported viral migration did not reflect sustained human migratory flows. Finally, using sequence data from 15 locations in Cameroon, we use relaxed random walk models to explore the spatiotemporal dynamics of CRF02_AG at a finer geographical detail. Phylogeographic dispersal in continuous space reveals that at least two distinct CRF02_AG lineages are circulating in overlapping regions that are evolving at different evolutionary and diffusion rates. In conclusion, by combining molecular and epidemiological data, our results provide a time scale for CRF02_AG, early 70s, place its spatial root in the DRC within the putative root of group-M diversity and propose a scenario of chance-exportation events for the spatiotemporal patterns of a successful HIV-1 lineage both at a regional and country-scale.