Opinion polls

Russian Media-Landscape: Main Trends in Media-Consumption (by Denis Volkov and Stepan Goncharov). The article explores the main trends in news consumption in Russia. The assessment of the size of the audience of the main TV channels, radio stations, newspapers and source in the internet is calculated. Trust in different media sources is measured. The authors try to assess the size and main characteristics of the audience of «independent media» in Russia compared to the characteristics of the audience of the mainstream TV-channels. Special attention is payed to the trends in the news consumption in the internet and social network usage. The authors conducted semantic analysis of the main government Russian TV channels to single out images, attitude models rooted in public opinion. The authors disclose public attitude to censorship and interest in receiving information from different sources.

The aim of this paper is to investigate the algorithm literacy level among university students from public and private institutions in Bogota. A literature review was used to account for the current state and perspectives of algorithms in Latin America. Subsequently, a questionnaire of 11 open-ended questions was applied to students between 19 and 23 years old. Preliminary results indicate that most of respondents acknowledged the existence of these technologies in all areas of their daily lives but were unaware of the exact functioning of these algorithm-based technologies. The study suggests conducting a more in-depth analysis on the use of technologies based on specific algorithms, with a broader sample that involves students from different regions of the country.

The survey "What next for democracy?", which conducted 22,041 interviews in 26 countries, was designed by the Fondation pour l’innovation politique, and the polling institute Ipsos was in charge of running it. All the results can be viewed in 23 languages* as open data on the Fondation pour l’innovation politique website (http://data.fondapol.org/democratie/ou-va-la-democratie/).

Over the past several years, signs of destabilisation in the democratic world have been abundant. High abstention rates and the populist vote are eroding governments’ electoral bases and their legitimacy, while a process of regression towards authoritarian methods of government can be seen in some central and eastern European countries. Older liberal democracies have also been tempted to follow this path through their security policies and, in particular, counter-terrorism measures. Moreover, democracies are faced with the powerful effects of the historic transition that is now epitomised by the notion of ‘globalisation’. There is no doubt that the processes of global dispersion and reconstruction are closely linked to the destabilisation of democratic systems.

Democracy is part of a bigger picture. A specific sequence of events allowed the emergence, establishment and entrenchment of the democratic political system. By profoundly changing the world, an alternative solution would also inevitably change the democratic system and perhaps spell its end. It is therefore important to consider the potential erosion of democracy and examine the current situation and potential future of a method of government based on the radical, spectacular and unique idea of allowing citizens to choose their governments. The turbulent period we have seen over the past quarter of a century raises serious questions concerning the concept of democracy.

El propósito del artículo es reconstruir las aportaciones normativas que han realizado sobre la opinión pública algunos de los principales teóricos de la Administración, desde Wilson a Bozeman. Compartiendo con Lasswell la idea de que en democracia la relación entre opinión pública y políticas públicas debe ser bidireccional, las preguntas centrales desde esta perspectiva serían: ¿cuál debe ser el papel de la opinión pública en relación con la administración y las políticas públicas? y ¿hasta dónde es legítimo que desde las instituciones públicas se intente gestionar la opinión pública? Las respuestas ofrecidas podrían agruparse en una escala cuyo primer peldaño circunscribiría la opinión pública al papel de crítica autorizada que vigila el proceso de formación de las políticas, sin inmiscuirse en los asuntos cotidianos  de  la  gestión;  el  segundo,  estaría  dirigido  a  sondear  la  opinión  para  definir  estrategias  y  planes que garanticen el apoyo del público a las políticas, las regulaciones y los servicios; finalmente, el ciudadano, asumiría un papel más relevante y cotidiano, participando directamente e incluso eligiendo a  los  productores  de  los  servicios  públicos.  La  gestión  de  la  opinión  con  fondos  públicos  podría  considerarse legítima y necesaria, siendo de aplicación las herramientas de investigación de la opinión y de la comunicación institucional. / This article reconstructs the normative contributions that some of the main theorists of the Administration have made about public opinion from Wilson to Bozeman. We agree with Lasswell that in a democracy the relationship between public opinion and public policies should be bidirectional. From this perspective, the central questions to be answered would be: what should be the role of public opinion in relation to public administration and policies? And to what extent is it legitimate for public institutions to try to manage public opinion? The answers offered could be grouped into a scale whose first step would circumscribe public opinion to the role of authoritative criticism that would oversee the process of policy formation without interfering in the day-to-day management issues; the second, would be aimed at probing opinion to define strategies and plans that guarantee public support for policies, regulations and services; finally, the citizen, would assume a more relevant and daily role participating directly and even choosing the producers of public services. The management of the opinion with public funds could be considered legitimate and necessary, with the application of opinion research and institutional communication tools.

Utilizando los datos de las encuestas de Eduardo Hamuy realizadas en Chile antes del quiebre de la democracia de 1973, cuestionamos la supuesta rigidez ideológica del centro. Mostramos que después de 1964, aumentó la identificación con la izquierda, pero la identificación con el centro y con la derecha no varió. Además, mostramos que el Presidente Frei tuvo un apoyo alto y estable, igual que Allende. Evidenciamos que por cada chileno optimista sobre la realidad del país, había tres pesimistas. El pesimismo aumentó en los meses anteriores al golpe. No obstante, los que creían que el futuro sería mejor sistemáticamente superaban a los que pensaban que sería peor, incluso en los meses anteriores a septiembre de 1973. Si bien los de izquierda eran más optimistas, uno de cada tres derechistas o centristas también era optimista sobre el futuro. La población chilena estaba menos polarizada que la elite.

When asked in surveys about their voting record, many respondents tend to report having gone to the polls, although they have not. The consequence is a large and significant turnout overreporting, with negative consequences upon the validity of many investigations in the field of voting behaviour. An individual’s tendency to exaggerate his/her voting record is usually the combined effect of several factors: social desirability bias, limitations of human memory, and acquiescence response bias. This article assesses the effectiveness of counter-biasing techniques in compensating for the social desirability bias and, consequently, reducing self-reported turnout. It compares the effects of three alternatives of ‘loaded’ turnout questions, providing variable information on the occurrence of non-voting behaviour (many people/around half of the people/one out of two people did not vote) and invariant face-saving response options. Self-reported turnout is compared against externally validated turnout. We employ a split-ballot survey experiment included in the 2009 Romanian Presidential Election panel study. Our analyses show that the ‘half’ counter-biasing formula is systematically more effective in reducing the social desirability bias than the alternatives, which perform rather similarly. When compared to validated turnout, it appears that, after applying the counter-biasing techniques, turnout overreporting due to social desirability remains at 5.7 to 8.6 percent.

This article examines the influence of polls on voting in four elections held in Quebec, Canada, from 2007 to 2012. It concludes that a) polls are consulted mostly by sophisticated voters; b) people who read polls tend to be more likely to vote and less likely to change their mind in the voting booth; c) younger and less educated voters, as well as people who decide not to vote or who change allegiance, are more likely to state that polls played a role in their decision. Polls either mobilize voters or discourage them to show up. However, their influence is far from being substantial. With respect to decision-making, a preference for the winner seems to have a mobilizing effect in and of itself. These results highlight how important it is that the information conveyed by polls be reliable, since this information is taken into account when voters make their decisions.