History of statistics

The aim of this study was to evaluate the inBuence of pesticide exposure on the development of Alzheimer's disease (AD), taking into account the potentially confounding factors (genetic, occupational exposure, and sociodemographic). The 1924 study participants (>70 years old) were randomly selected in the Saguenay}Lac Saint-Jean region (Quebec, Canada). The AD diagnosis was established in three steps according to recognized criteria. Sixty-eight cases were paired with a nondemented control for age (؎2 years) and sex. Structured questionnaires addressed to subjects and proxy respondents allowed a description of the sociodemographic characteristics, lifestyle characteristics, and residential, occupational, familial, and medical histories. Assessment of environmental exposure to pesticides was based on residential histories and the agriculture census histories of Statistics Canada (1971+1991) for herbicide and insecticide spraying in the area. Statistical analyses were performed with a logistic regression, adjusting for potential confounding factors. The results failed to show a signiAcant risk of AD with an exposure to herbicides, insecticides, and pesticides. However, future investigations are needed to establish more precisely the identiAcation, measurement, mobility, and bioavailability of neurotoxic pesticide residues in relation to AD.

Statistics derives its power from classifying data and comparing the resulting distributions. In this paper, I will use two historical examples to highlight the importance of such data practices for statistical reasoning. The two examples I will explore are Franz Boas’s anthropometric studies of native American populations in the early 1890s which laid the foundations for his later critique of the race concept; and Wilhelm Johannsen’s experiments in barley breeding, which he carried out for the Carlsberg Laboratory around the same time and which prepared the ground for his later distinction of genotype and phenotype. Both examples will show that the manipulation of data depended on complex classificatory practices: the distinction and articulation of “tribes,” “races” and “family lines” in the case of Boas, and the selection and construction of “populations” and “pure lines” in the case of Johannsen. They also reveal a fundamental difference between data practices in the human and the life sciences: Whereas the latter are relatively free to construct populations in the laboratory, the field, or on paper, the former have to rely on social categories shaped by historical accident and self-perception of the subjects under study.

The article analyzes the 1869 census in the Habsburg Empire as an eminent administrative and scientific operation, which provided knowledge that could be used in different contexts. The census not only produced a population and drafted the outlines of a modern society, it forced different parts of state administration to work together and was a major step toward a self-understanding of the modern state. The article focusses on the practices that were put to use in the production of data and in the construction of a vast knowledge base. It puts up questions on how such an operation could be financed, how it was executed and which challenges had to be tackled in the course of the operation. It integrates recent theoretical approaches from science studies and shows how census was not only a major state operation, but also an opportunity to different groups for civil emancipation .

Mahalanobis once invoked a mental construct of ‘five
concentric circles’ to characterize the domains of science
and statistics [3]. At the center is physics and at
the outer layers are survey methods or areas where
the variables are mostly unidentifiable, uncontrollable
and ‘free’. As a student of physics and mathematics
at Cambridge [4], he began his own career at the central
geometric point of this construct. By the end of
his life, he had made theoretical and applied contributions
to every sphere. In 1922, he became professor
of Physics at the Presidency College in Calcutta [7].
As ‘a physicist by training, statistician by instinct
and a planner by conviction’ [9], his interests led
him to found the Indian Statistical Institute (ISI) in
1931 [10] to promote interdisciplinary research. In
1933, he launched the internationally renowned journal
Sanky¯a, serving as editor for forty years.

Many modern scholars think that the term " histogram " is related to the word " history ". Recent work in the field of the history of statistics has only increased this misunderstanding. The etymology is incorrect for several reasons: first, the word " histogram " does not share a stem with " history " ; second, we show that Karl Pearson, who coined the term, used a clearly defined method to designate recently devised graphs. His method, inspired by Levasseur's work, excludes any relation to the word " history " and confirms the link to the Greek ἱστός (mast). Some clarifications of Pearson's use of the term are given in the paper.

El pensamiento occidental consolida durante el siglo XIX una forma de saber –la estadística- que sentará las bases de un extraordinario proceso de conocimiento y de control de la sociedad. Íntimamente ligada al análisis de la población, la razón estadística occidental encontrará un campo de primer orden para su desarrollo en la labor de los sistemas estadísticos nacionales, cuya tarea fundamental consistirá en afrontar el reto de representar las peculiaridades de cada nación a partir de los instrumentos de una ciencia universal. Partiendo de esta premisa, Estadística y Nación explora las fuentes ideológicas, políticas y científicas en las que abrevaron los estadísticos argentinos para clasificar, medir e interpretar los decisivos cambios sociales y demográficos ocurridos entre la caída de Rosas y la Primera Guerra mundial.  Para ello recorre aspectos tales como la formación de los técnicos y las reparticiones del sistema estadístico argentino y las imágenes elaboradas sobre el trabajo, la educación, la mujer, la propiedad, la urbanización,  las migraciones, los grupos étnicos y las perspectivas de la población futura. Explora asimismo las funciones de propaganda e insumo para la acción pública adjudicadas a las estadísticas; la influencia del fatalismo estadístico y de las diferentes concepciones de determinismo; y las continuidades y originalidades interpretativas del pensamiento censal argentino de la “edad del entusiasmo”. Situado en la encrucijada de la historia de la población, de la formación de las elites estatales y de las ciencias sociales de vocación cuantitativa, el libro propone un análisis crítico de un amplio conjunto de categorías definidas por los cuadros tecno-burocráticos del liberalismo decimonónico, muchas de las cuales continúan formando parte de la auto-percepción de los argentinos.

For a long time, one of my dreams was to describe the nature of uncertainty axiomatically, and it looks like I've finally done it in my co∼eventum mechanics! Now it remains for me to explain to everyone the co∼eventum mechanics in the most approachable way. This is what I'm trying to do in this work. The co∼eventum mechanics is another name for the co∼event theory, i.e., for the theory of experience and chance which I axiomatized in 2016 [1, 2]. In my opinion, this name best reflects the co∼event-based idea of the new dual theory of uncertainty, which combines the probability theory as a theory of chance, with its dual half, the believability theory as a theory of experience. In addition, I like this new name indicates a direct connection between the co∼event theory and quantum mechanics, which is intended for the physical explanation and description of the conict between quantum observers and quantum observations [4]. Since my theory of uncertainty satises the Kolmogorov axioms of probability theory, to explain this co∼eventum mechanics I will use a way analogous to the already tested one, which explains the theory of probability as a theory of chance describing the results of a random experiment. The simplest example of a random experiment in probability theory is the " tossing a coin ". Therefore, I decided to use this the simplest random experiment itself, as well as the two its analogies: the " "flipping a coin " and the " spinning a coin " to explain the co∼eventum mechanics, which describes the results of a combined experienced random experiment. I would like to resort to the usual for the probability theory " coin-based " analogy to explain (and first of all for myself) the logic of the co∼eventum mechanics as a logic of experience and chance. Of course, this analogy one may seem strange if not crazy. But I did not come up with a better way of tying the explanations of the logic of the co∼eventum mechanics to the coin-based explanations that are commonly used in probability theory to explain at least for myself the logic of the chance through a simple visual " coin-based " model that clarifies what occurs as a result of a combined experienced random experiment in which the experience of observer faces the chance of observation. I hope this analogy can be useful not only for me in understanding the co∼eventum mechanics.

"La palabra “estadística” se incorporó al vocabulario de la mayoría de las lenguas occidentales a fines del siglo XVIII. Fue el término empleado para designar una novedad científica dotada de fuerte carga política y considerada de utilidad pública.
Su desarrollo se produjo en paralelo al de los estados nacionales, como instrumento con el que cualificar los diferentes tipos de poblaciones y definir en qué consistía la “nación”. Algo imprescindible para diseñar políticas públicas y para delimitar el sujeto político sobre el que se construía y legitimaba el Estado.
La trayectoria seguida por la nueva ciencia estuvo cargada de contradicciones y hubo varios modelos de institucionalización: aquí se analizan los principales ocurridos en Europa y América Latina. La novedad estadística quiere afrontar algunas omisiones que encontramos en la historia oficial de la disciplina y subrayar que la confusión entre modelos y tradiciones ha originado toda una serie de paradojas interpretativas difíciles de resolver. Fenómeno que afecta especialmente a América Latina, protagonista de desarrollos tempranos y atrasos seculares que parecen producirse simultáneamente y que son reflejo de juicios e imángenes preestablecidas vincultadas a su evolución política y al carácter "especial" de su población.
"

《明史·食货志》考源——以计数为中心 “The Statistics: Tracing the Source of the Food and Money Essay in the History of Ming,” Graduate Students’ Journal of Peking University 北京大学研究生学志 25.2 (2009): 60-71.

Based on the Shihuozhi (“Essay on Food and Commodities”) in the History of Ming, this paper focuses on complex and confused numbers and calculation (“counts”) of the Ming government.  In re-examining several sources of Shihuozhi, the characteristics, and the bases, one can learn more about the record’s nature and making process. In other words, the statistics lead us to the source of the records and its making process.

You yourself, or what is the same, your experience is such ``coin'' that, while you aren't questioned, it rotates all the time in ``free flight''. And only when you answer the question the ``coin'' falls on one of the sides: ``Yes'' or ``No'' with the believability that your experience tells you.

Late nineteenth-century anthropology already seems to have split into two cultures: racial anthropology on the one hand and social anthropology on the other. However, an intriguing analytical method exists that mediates this divide between nature and culture, the so-called “genealogical method.” I will trace the emergence of this method from Francis Galton’s Hereditary Genius (1869) and Lewis H. Morgan’s Systems of Consanguinity and Affinity (1871) to W. H. R. Rivers “Genealogical Method of Anthropological Inquiry” (1910) and Franz Boas’ The Mind of Primitive Man (1911). My aim in doing this is to re-contextualize the genealogical method. This method originated in, and continues to represent, a long-standing Western tradition of analyzing, and potentially interfering with, reproductive relations within populations. Rather than being grounded in the “naturalization” of a particular family model, therefore, the genealogical method originated as an analytical tool that mapped out these reproductive relations in a manner that was as consistent and exhaustive as possible. As such, it was not grounded in biology but rather in legal traditions of measuring kinship by degrees, as well as practices of administering and surveying populations in which notions of racial belonging often played a crucial role.

A history of quantitative mapping in France in the 19th century. Published 1996, after my PhD. This book, in French, traces the evolution of quantitative cartography in France, from the emergence of special maps in the modern period till the beginning of the 20th century, when the graphic method spread in geography. The book focuses in particular on the pioneering diagrams and maps designed by Charles Dupin, André-Michel Guerry and Armand-Joseph Frère de Montizon in the 1820s and 1830s. It then develops the quantitative cartography of engineers such as Charles-Joseph Minard, followed by the flourishing statistical cartography of an 'age of enthusiasm' between 1860 and 1900. Finally, it shows how the beginnings of a semiological approach to maps emerged, and how statistical cartography was transferred to the field of Vidalian geography after 1900.

This thesis treats the political thought of Petr Kropotkin as a site of intersection between anarchism and science. It explores moments of interaction between the diagnostic and remedial aspirations of revolutionary anarchism and certain epistemologies and methodologies of nineteenth- and early twentieth-century scientific thought. On the one hand I argue that this meeting led to the scientization of Kropotkin’s anarchist politics, transforming conventional anarchist ideas on the state, capitalism, and revolution. On the other hand, I consider how Kropotkin politicized science, that is, how he inflected certain theories and concepts into powerful revolutionary devices that equipped his brand of anarchism with new ways to identify political problems and solutions. Kropotkin’s bio-political worldview, his enthusiasm about statistics as a means to visualize society and social law, and his understanding of the ‘social’ as a field for the application of rational and scientific forms of knowledge for the improvement of human populations, had far-reaching implications for the way he conceptualized and articulated traditional anarchist notions of power, domination, moral corruption, exploitation, order, freedom, the dissemination of knowledge. I show that in contrast to political philosophers who employ scientific ideas metaphorically to represent political concepts such as sovereignty, stability, and resistance, Kropotkin’s absorption of science was literal. Concepts such as health, sickness, insanity, medicine, hygiene, and degeneration did not function analogically in his thought, but were in fact some of his key political concerns.

Colonial sources should be taken with a pinch of salt; in the best cases, they are read against the grain – these recommendations are often given to students of the history of Africa. The value of colonial sources, it is argued, is limited, as these documents usually speak from the point of view of the colonisers. They conceal the perspective and actions
of the colonised and provide ideologically biased descriptions. However, what does this exactly mean? When, specifically, should we take colonial sources with a pinch of salt, and how exactly do we read them against the grain? Furthermore, what do we gain from working with biased sources? These are the questions that I will address in this paper.
I deal with a rather dull but important body of sources: the Medizinal-Berichte über die deutschen Schutzgebiete, or the ‘Medical Reports on the German Colonies’ (henceforth Medizinalberichte or Medical Reports). For studies on the history of health and medicine in the German colonies2 the Medizinalberichte provide an important point of
departure, as they promise a systematic survey of the main challenges and projects in colonial health policy. In the following paper I will show why the Medizinalberichte do not easily deliver on this promise. Highlighting some basic assumptions of the reports, I argue that these must be read critically and I demonstrate how this is possible.

List of figures viii List of tables ix Rector's foreword x List of Contributors xiii The Greek World in the Age of Revolution 1 PASCHALIS M. KITROMILIDES PART I Resonances of the Age of Revolution I 17 1 Revolutions in Europe (1776-1848) 19 ANNIE JOURDAN 2 The Greek Revolution and the Age of Revolution 32 DAVID A. BELL 3 Greece, Spain, and the theory of emancipation in early European liberalism 43 JOSÉ MARIA PORTILLO VALDÉS 4 Austria and the 1820s revolutions: Between the heritage of the Congress of Vienna and political change 53 MIROSLAV ŠEDIVÝ PART II Resonances of the Age of Revolution ΙΙ 5 Transnationalism and cosmopolitanism in the 1820s: Philhellenism(s) in the public sphere ANNA KARAKATSOULI 6 Greece and the liberal revolutions of 1820-1823 in southern Europe JOHN DAVIS 7 Greece and 1848: Direct responses and underlying connectivities CHRISTOPHER CLARK AND CHRISTOS ALIPRANTIS 8 "Che dura prova è tentar di greca aquila il dorso". The Greek War of Independence and its resonance in Sicilian culture of the 19th century

À lire les sondages, la France se distingue par un haut niveau de défiance vaccinale. Mais, dans la pratique, les taux de couverture restent élevés, et la campagne de vaccination contre le Covid s'accélère. L'hésitation n'est pas toujours synonyme de refus ou de résistance. 2016. La France championne de la défiance vaccinale. Sur une carte du monde en dégradés de rouge, le petit hexagone au centre est peint en bordeaux : il est devenu le mouton noir de la vaccination, c'est du moins ce que présente l'anthropologue Heidi Larson depuis la London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, au terme d'une enquête menée dans soixante-sept pays, qui fait caracoler la France en tête du palmarès. Chaque personne interrogée dans le cadre de l'enquête avait dû se prononcer sur quatre affirmations relatives à l'importance des vaccinations de l'enfance, à l'efficacité des vaccins, à leur compatibilité avec des croyances religieuses et à leur innocuité. C'est sur ce dernier item que les Français s'illustraient par un très haut niveau de défiance. Si le cas des Français est grave, le problème n'en est pas moins mondial : l'Organisation mondiale de la santé (OMS) a déclaré l'hésitation vaccinale « ennemie de l'année » en 2019.

The history of race and technology in British India has avoided
engaging with the way in which this played out amongst nationalists. The history of biometrics too has similarly overlooked the role of anticolonial nationalists. The history of the now-forgotten profiloscope allows us to address both oversights. But the history of the profiloscope is more than just a history of a technological apparatus. It is also the trace of a forgotten political imaginary, viz. biometric nationalism. Biometric nationalism sought to deploy biometrics in developing a dynamically anti-essentialist and non-individualistic conception of nationhood at a time when the nation-form had come to largely monopolize mainstream of anti-colonial political discourse.

Article in French
Résumé. - L'idée que les cartes et les diagrammes ne sont pas seulement des sources d'information, mais aussi des outils de communication, n'est pas si nouvelle. Dès le XVIIe siècle, certains auteurs géographes souhaitaient des représentations graphiques lisibles et efficaces, et non plus seulement justes et complètes. Bien que dans la Sémiologie graphique (1967), J. Bertin ne se réfère à aucune tradition, il existe bien une réflexion théorique sur l'image antérieure à ce traité majeur. Cet article en souligne quelques moments forts, rappelant les apports de personnalités telles qu'Emmanuel de Martonne ou Maximilian Eckert. Il présente aussi, hors des frontières de la géographie, les premières expérimentations sur la graphique menées par des statisticiens dans la première moitié du XXe siècle.
Abstract
Abstract. - The idea that maps are not only a repository of information, but also a mean of communication, is not so new. As early as the XVIIth century, a few geographers wished for maps that would be not only precise and complete, but also legible and efficient. In his Sémiologie Graphique (1967), J. Bertin did not refer to any tradition, yet a theoretical reflection did exist before his major treatise. This article points out some milestones in the history of graphical thinking. It mentions the contribution of personalities like Emmanuel de Martonne or Maximilian Eckert. It also presents the first experiments on the perception of diagrams done by statisticians in the first half of the XXth century.

The paper is devoted to quantitative evaluation of the prevalence of the Old Belief in the Russian empire in the 19th – early 20th centuries. Methodology for updating the official population statistic of Old Believers in the Russian Empire is offered. The verified data on population dynamics of Old Believers is given on the provinces and regions of the Russian Empire and on the state at all. Historiographical thesis about more than tenfold belittling of the number of Old Believers in the official statistic materials of the Russian Empire is refuted. The regional differences in the scale of concealment of faith by Old Believers and in the level of falsification of their number by the State government bodies are detected.

Key words: Old Believers, statistics, cohort analysis, population census, demography, the Russian Empire

Статья посвящена количественной оценке распространённости старообрядчества в Российской империи XIX – начала ХХ вв. Предлагается методика, позволяющая уточнить данные официальной статистики о численности старообрядческого населения Российской империи. Приведены уточнённые данные о динамике численности старообрядцев по губерниях и областях Российской империи, а также по государству в целом. Опровергается распространённый в историографии тезис о более чем десятикратном приуменьшении численности староверов в материалах официальной статистики Российской империи. Выявлены региональные различия в масштабах сокрытия веры  старообрядцами, а также  уровне фальсифицированности данных об их численности органами государственной власти.

Ключевые слова: старообрядчество, статистика, когортный анализ, перепись, демография, Российская империя

In the almost twenty years since Peter Becker and I convened a conference on the history of criminology (1998), the field has witnessed a remarkable wave of new scholarship. This essay draws on the wealth of new research to reflect on some of the challenges facing historians of criminology: how to write a history of criminology that addresses the heterogeneity of expert discourses and embeds them within the larger context of discourses on crime in civil society; whether it is possible to develop a typology of criminological paradigms that might facilitate comparisons between countries and over time; how to conceptualize the nexus between criminological discourses, the criminal justice system and the emerging welfare state; how to tell the story of criminology as a transnational development.

The paper analyses the context of the theory of statistics. It also examines the methodological uncertainty of the 18th-century state description, which constitute a theoretical problem at the end of the century in works of Schlözer, Zizius etc. It also focuses on examining opinions about the theory of statistics, and investigate how the answers to these questions strenghtened (or weakened) the scientific legitimation of statistics. The paper also briefly touches on some aspects of the above discourse which are relevant to the Hungarian context.

Article en français/article in French
Abstract
The cartography of demographic phenomena has been hindered for a long time by the difficulty in finding a symbolism which integrated the spatial variations of quantitative data. The first attempts were made by statisticians or technicians and remained
quite formalist. The graphic language of demogeography came gradually into being through the first works of pionneers, such as Frère de Montizon, Ch. Dupin, and the engineers of bridges and roads, L. Lalanne and C. J. Minard.

Résumé
La cartographie des phénomènes démographiques a longtemps été retardée par les difficultés à forger un symbolisme qui puisse exprimer les variations spatiales de données quantitatives. Les premiers essais sont l'oeuvre de statisticiens ou de techniciens et restent assez formalistes. Le langage graphique de la démogéographie s'est progressivement constitué avec l'apparition de cartes et de méthodes pionnières, conçues par  Frère de Montizon, Ch. Dupin, et les ingénieurs des ponts et chaussées L. Lalanne and C. J. Minard.

Questo contributo prende in esame lo sforzo di misurazione sociale messo in atto da Ugo Giusti in qualità di direttore dell'Ufficio municipale di statistica del Comune di Firenze; concentra in particolare l'attenzione sui reiterati tentativi di costruire una graduatoria dei quartieri in base alle condizioni economiche degli abitanti, attraverso la quale Giusti intendeva adeguare le rilevazioni dell'Ufficio fiorentino alle disposizioni approvate dall'Istituto internazionale di statistica nel 1895 per lo studio della stratificazione sociale ...

Despite recent research on the concept of ethnic hybrid borderlands and the critique of its use in contemporary historical research, it is still commonly consulted to explain ethnic or national conflicts. Taking up this critique—ethnic hybridity is the explanandum and not the explanans—this article argues that statistics of nationality played a crucial role, not only in the construction of ethnicity in general, but particularly in the emergence of the idea of ethnic hybridity. Therefore, it examines German statistics concerning nationality and the gaze of the German statistician on East Central European territories in the first half of the twentieth century. By using a theoretical approach that combines elements of Actor-Network Theory and discourse analysis it can be shown how statistical data on nationality and its cartographical visualizations were the result of a highly complex production pro-cess. Within this process, ethnic hybridity was, in the beginning, an unintended side effect of the initial idea to measure nationality by following a binary logic of national affiliation. In the course of the first half of the twentieth century, hybridity and the impossibility of linear ethnographic borders—both products of statistical measurement—formed the focus of  statistical  research  on  nationality.  This  did  not  only  affect  the  statistical  debate  on nationality but changed the perception of nationality and ethnicity itself.

The logic of uncertainty is not the logic of experience and as well as it is not the logic of chance. It is the logic of experience and chance. Experience and chance are two inseparable poles. These are two dual reflections of one essence, which is called co∼event. The theory of experience and chance is the theory of co∼events. To study the co∼events, it is not enough to study the experience and to study the chance. For this, it is necessary to study the experience and chance as a single entire, a co∼event. In other words, it is necessary to study their interaction within a co∼event. The new co∼event axiomatics and the theory of co∼events following from it were created precisely for these purposes. In this work, I am going to demonstrate the effectiveness of the new theory of co∼events in a studying the logic of uncertainty. I will do this by the example of a co∼event splitting of the logic of the Bayesian scheme, which has a long history of fierce debates between Bayesionists and frequentists. I hope the logic of the theory of experience and chance will make its modest contribution to the application of these old dual debaters.

Keywords: Eventology, event, probability, probability theory, Kolmogorov’s axiomatics, experience, chance, cause, consequence, co∼event, set of co∼events, bra-event, set of bra-events, ket-event, set of ket-events, believability, certainty, believability theory, certainty theory, theory of co∼events, theory of experience and chance, co∼event dualism, co∼event axiomatics, logic of uncertainty, logic of experience and chance, logic of cause and consequence, logic of the past and the future, Bayesian scheme.

Basic information on the International Congres of Statistics (1853-1878 including its bibliography. Printed as a pdf file in Dec. 2016 from the original word processor file of 1989, this version is carrying imperfections ; the article has been released in Actes du congrès de l'IIS, 1989, and in the third part  of La Mesure de l'Etat. Etudes sur la division du travail statistique aux XVIIIe et XIX siècles, diss. Ehess, 1990.,

Published in: Историческая информатика. Информационные технологии и математические методы
в исторических исследованиях и образовании. - N 1-2-2015. - С. 73-97.
Yeremieiev Pavlo. Methods of verifications of statistics concerning the Old Belief of the Russian Empire in 19th – early 20th centuries (the case of Kharkiv province).
The article deals with the problem of accurate
statistics of Old Belief in the Russian Empire. The
falsity of the previous verification methods for the
statistics concerning the Old Belief of the Russian
Empire is proved. The new methods for the calculation
of the number of the secret Old Believers are proposed
and evaluated on the materials of Kharkov province.
With the help of the cohort and regression analysis it
was proved that the scale of underestimating of Old
Believers’ quantity in Kharkiv province was less than
that in a number of central Russian provinces.
Keywords: Old Belief, statistics, cohort analysis,
regression analysis, Kharkiv province.

Eventology of multivariate statistics
Eventology and mathematical eventology
Philosophical eventology and philosophy of probability
Practical eventology
Eventology of safety
Eventological economics and psychology
Mathematics in the humanities, socio-economic and natural sciences
Financial and actuarial mathematics
Multivariate statistical analysis
Multivariate complex analysis
Decision-making under risk and uncertainty
Risk measurement and risk models
Theory of fuzzy events and generalized theory of uncertainty
System analysis and events management

EEC'2016 ~ workshop on axiomatizing experience and chance, and Hilbert's sixth problem

With topics from quantum physics, probability and believability to economics, sociology and psychology, the workshop will be intended for an interdisciplinary discussion on mathematical theories of experience and chance. Topics of discussion include the results, thoughts and ideas on axiomatization of the eventological theory of experience and chance in the framework of the decision of Hilbert sixth problem.
Eventology of experience and chance
Beleivability theory and statistics of experience
Probability theory and statistics of chance
Axiomatizing experience and chance

La seconde moitié du XXe siècle donna lieu à un accroissement des tentatives de redéfinir en termes opérationnels divers domaines de l'activité sociale tant scientifique, militaire, administratif ou industriel. Ces tentatives tirèrent parti des innovations scientifiques et techniques de la Deuxième Guerre mondiale, puis de la généralisation de l'automatique. Cette thèse en propose une sociologie historique, menée à partir du cas particulier de l’archéologie. Ce domaine scientifique fait alors l’objet d’efforts accrus de disciplinarisation et de professionnalisation. C’est également le cas des mathématiques appliquées puis de l’informatique : cette étude porte précisément sur les rapports établis à l’intersection de ces trois domaines. En France, au cours des années 1950 et 1960, les innovations méthodologiques et conceptuelles y ont été particulièrement importantes. Pourtant, par la suite, leur réception s’est révélée relativement mineure. En archéologie, les innovations relatives aux mathématiques appliquées, à la formalisation du langage et à l’automatique n’ont pas donné lieu au développement d’une spécialité fondée sur le calcul. Cette situation contraste avec celle d’autres disciplines ou d’autres pays, et ceci alors même que les redéfinitions théoriques et méthodologiques de la « New Archaeology » anglophone se diffusaient à l’échelle internationale. La thèse explore les cas de trois entreprises collectives, menées respectivement autour de Georges Laplace, Jean-Claude Gardin et Jean Lesage, entre France, Espagne et Italie. Ces cas sont complétés par ceux d’un ensemble d’acteurs ayant été à la fois ingénieurs et archéologues. D’un point de vue général, cette étude porte sur les statuts cognitifs et sociaux des contributions méthodologiques dans l’activité scientifique. Trois modèles de relations entre spécialistes d’un domaine scientifique et spécialistes des sciences formelles sont identifiés et décrits. Les transformations entraînées par l’introduction des mathématiques et de l’automatique dans la division du travail et la distribution des formes de reconnaissance sont analysées. La réception de ces propositions méthodologiques est discutée à l’aune de différents facteurs et modèles de l’innovation scientifique. Ce sont, au final, des éclairages nouveaux sur le développement de l’archéologie de sauvetage puis préventive et sur la genèse des recours aux technologies « numériques » en sciences de l'homme qui sont proposés. L’analyse tire parti de 82 entretiens, 23 fonds d’archives et de plusieurs jeux de données bibliométriques (pré-existants ou constitués pour cette étude). En écho aux travaux pris pour objets, cette thèse entend également être une proposition et une illustration d’un usage possible de la formalisation et de l’informatique en sciences sociales. Fondées sur l’emploi d’un wiki et les principes de la programmation lettrée et de la reproductibilité des analyses, les architectures documentaire et démonstrative de cette étude font elles-mêmes l’objet d’une analyse.

Zu Beginn des 20. Jahrhunderts stellte sich die medizinische Forschung
nachdrücklich der Frage, wie der „normale“ menschliche Körper zu definieren sei.1 Tausende von lebenden Personen wurden vermessen, die inneren Organe von Toten gewogen, Leistungsprüfungen durchgeführt, neue Messverfahren und -apparate entwickelt. Eine intensive Debatte über Normbegriff, Methoden und Sinnhaftigkeit des Unterfangens folgte.
Der bevorzugte Ort für Forschungen zum sogenannten Normkörper
war die militärische Musterung: Hier präsentierten sich dem Militärarzt
junge, weitestgehend gesunde Männer in großer Zahl, um untersucht und vermessen zu werden. Ihre nackten Körper, serienhaft in Reih‘ und Glied angetreten, bar ihrer Individualität, boten perfektes Material für vergleichende und kollektive Fragestellungen wie anthropometrische Reihenmessungen.

The overwhelming majority of quantitative work in sociology reports levels of statistical significance. Often, significance is reported with little or no discussion of what it actually entails philosophically, and this can be problematic when analyses are interpreted. Often, significance is understood to represent the probability of the null hypothesis (usually understood as a lack of relationship between two or more variables). This understanding is simply erroneous. The first section of this paper deals with this common misunderstanding. The second section gives a history of significance testing in the social sciences, with reference to the historical foundations of many common misinterpretations of significance testing. The third section is devoted to a discussion of the consequences of misinterpreting statistical significance for sociology. It is argued that reporting statistical significance provides sociology with very little value, and that the consequences of misinterpreting significance values outweighs the benefits of their use. 1 Prior probabilities and the inverse probability error: why P(D|H) = P(H| D) Although quantitative sociology has been challenged on ontological and epistemological grounds, it is still the dominant form of research in many of the largest and most prestigious sociological journals currently in print. However, the statistical tradition that sociology has inherited form psychology and the biological sciences is not an aspect of sociological history readily available for students or researchers. Indeed, many statistical procedures are ill-understood by the quantitative sociologists who use them. In particular, procedures that measure levels of so-called " statistical significance " are rarely used with the inherent philosophical limitations of those procedures in mind. This is due, in part, to the hybridization of two theories of statistical significance that have disparate theoretical conceptions by statistical

O artigo analisa o lugar das tecnologias de quantificação na rede formada em torno do combate às doenças, da revolução pastoriana até o movimento sanitarista dos anos 1920. Investiga o papel da demografia sanitária na imposição do modelo pastoriano entre os médicos, seguido da monumentalização estatística das reformas junto a diferentes atores sociais. A teoria do ator-rede de Bruno Latour e os trabalhos de Michel Foucault sobre a governamentalidade são usados para problematizar o conjunto documental formado pelo censo de 1906, artigos e boletins demográficos publicados na imprensa médica, anuários estatísticos e relatórios ministeriais

Relative entropy identities yield basic decompositions of categorical data log-likelihood. It naturally leads to developing linear information models in contrast to the hierarchical log-linear models. A recent study by the authors clari…ed the principal dierence in the data likelihood analysis between the two linear models. The proposed scheme of log-likelihood decomposition introduces a prototype of linear information models, with which

La statistique comme source historique La base « statpeni » Économétrie de données de panel Origine de la « Statistique pénitentiaire » La « Statistique pénitentiaire » : une mine d'information Enjeux et questions de la « Statistique pénitentiaire » La statistique pour les maisons centrales De nombreuses dimensions renseignées Plus de 30 tableaux chaque année, qui donnent des données agrégées au niveau des prisons : Données démographiques (population, type et durée de la peine, âge, religion, nationalité) ; Données sur l'origine socio-démographique et judiciaire des prisonniers (professions d'origine, département de condamnation, éventuelle récidive) ; Données relatives à l'instruction ; Données sanitaires (activité de l'infirmerie, nombre de décès, types de maladie, etc.) ; Données disciplinaires ; Données économiques : Sur le travail (produit du travail, nombre de journées de travail, différents types d'industrie) ; Sur la comptabilité du pécule (recettes et dépenses du pécule disponible et du pécule de réserve) ; Données sur le devenir des prisonniers libérés. Melchior SIMIONI [email protected] Statistique pénitentiaire et économie carcérale -8/42 La Statistique pénitentiaire procède de la volonté de la puissance publique de mieux « connaître » la prison : Préoccupations hygiénistes ; Préoccupations « philanthropiques » ; Préoccupations comptables et productivistes. Melchior SIMIONI [email protected] Statistique pénitentiaire et économie carcérale -9/42