Journal Article by Praveen Rai
Qeios, 2024
The General Elections 2024 miraculously halted the declining political graph of the Indian Nation... more The General Elections 2024 miraculously halted the declining political graph of the Indian National Congress and doubled its presence (seats won) in the lower house of parliament since the national hustings in 2019. The strategies implemented for reviving the party, like 'Bharat Jodo Yatras' (walkathons led by Rahul Gandhi), had an erratic pan-Indian electoral impact; as a result, it partly reclaimed its lost political space. The mandate failed to reverse the deinstitutionalization process of the grand old party, and its fragmentary legitimization seems to be by default rather than design. It failed to register a win and make a comeback primarily due to the absence of party offices in several states and hesitancy in overhauling the Congress system. The way ahead for party revivification includes tweaking its archaic ideology, designing a populist model of governance, promoting subaltern leadership, creating a perennial connectivity with citizens, embracing digitalized politicking, and practising aspiration-centric developmental politics.
Journal of Asian and African Studies, 2024
The Congress, the grand old party of India, plunged into a political abyss after consecutive defe... more The Congress, the grand old party of India, plunged into a political abyss after consecutive defeats in the national elections of 2014 and 2019. It called for a deep remedial overhaul, but it resorted to ‘Band-Aid political strategies’ for pro-tem gains. It recirculated rootless leaders in various party positions, added digital footprints rather than foot soldiers and launched the ambiguous ‘Bharat Jodo Yatras’ (walkathons) – shepherded by Rahul Gandhi to reclaim its lost political dominance. It becomes contextual to revisit the deinstitutionalization thesis of Congress party and probe criticalities of personalism-dynasticism in top echelons and generational factionalism-leadership conundrums in states in hastening its endemic decline.
Qeios ID: 38AQXO, 2024
Wave' is a political phenomenon that leads to a major electoral gain or loss for a political part... more Wave' is a political phenomenon that leads to a major electoral gain or loss for a political party, an expression of pro or anti-incumbency public mood. 'MODI-wave' is an electoral manifestation depicting the hegemonic leadership of Narendra Modi that scripts victories in elections based on political charisma, social legitimacy and cultural nationalism. His critics question the legality of his regime in terms of democratic deficit, incompetent governance and unrepresentative of 'will of the whole people'. However, the saffron party's victories in national elections 2014 and 2019 is a reflection of 'will of the majority' that institutionalized and routinized Modi wave. 'There is No Alternative' to Modi' is deeply entrenched in minds of voters as they rewarded him with successive leadership renewals and re-legitimations. Modi's leadership will once again attempt to obtain validation in national elections 2024, but the absence of a competitive adversary strongly augments his chances of getting yet another political mandate, provided there are no 'election surprises' in store.
Journal of Asian and African Studies, 2023
Modi 'Wave' is a political phenomenon that describes a strong hegemon (Prime Minister Narendra Mo... more Modi 'Wave' is a political phenomenon that describes a strong hegemon (Prime Minister Narendra Modi) who scripts landslide victories in Indian elections based on political charisma and electoral legitimacy. The consecutive victories of the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) in national elections 2014 and 2019 is a testimony of charismatic routinization of Modi 'Wave'. 'There Is No Alternative' to Modi seems to be ingrained in the conscious psyche of the electorate (will of the majority), which provides successive leadership legitimacy renewals. The political momentum of Modi's charisma is a discursive dynamic, but it continues to institutionalize right-wing ideology and expand saffron electoral footprints in India.
Asian Journal of Comparative Politics, 2023
The conference in Poona that led to the foundation of Indian National Congress in 1885 aimed to s... more The conference in Poona that led to the foundation of Indian National Congress in 1885 aimed to serve as the germ of a native parliament to provide a reply to the assertion that India was still unfit for any form of representative institution. It spearheaded the Indian independence movement and post 1947 ushered in a 'Congress system' of one-party dominance that represented a historical consensus with few parallels in any political party system in the world. Dialectical contradiction has been a historic recurrence in the Congress as 'personality cults' of Jawaharlal Nehru and Indira Gandhi in the early years and a 'high command culture' later on decimated its hegemonic power in competitive party politics. The Congress declined due to a deficit of political vision, lack of forward-thinking ideas, engagement in competitive pseudo-secularism and diminishing electoral returns of dynastic (Nehru-Gandhi) politics. The institutionalization of BJP as a dominant party in 2014 coincided with the deinstitutionalization of the Congress party system. The grand old party needs to relegitimize itself by revamping its ideology, formulating a populist model of governance, creating son-of-the-soil leadership, revitalizing the party system, re-engaging with citizens, altering its politics to meritocracy and embracing new age electoral grammar.
Open Political Science, 2021
Political opinion polls in India are holistic snapshots in time that divulge deep dive informatio... more Political opinion polls in India are holistic snapshots in time that divulge deep dive information on electoral participation, ideological orientation and self-efficacy of the electorate and faith in core democratic values. The popularity of election surveys stems from the political socialization and crystal ball gazing curiosity of the citizens to foresee the outcomes of the hustings before the pronouncement of formal results. The opinion polls provide crucial data on voting behaviour and attitudes, testing theories of electoral politics and domain knowledge production. The obsession of the Indian media with political forecasting has shifted the focus from psephology to electoral prophecy, but it continues to furnish the best telescopic view of elections based on the feedback of the electorate. The ascertainment of subaltern opinion by surveys not only broadens the contours of understanding electoral democracy, but also provides an empirical alternative to elitist viewpoint of competitive politics in India.
Economic and Political Weekly, 2021
Opinion polls in India capture electoral snapshots in time that divulge information on political ... more Opinion polls in India capture electoral snapshots in time that divulge information on political participation, ideological orientation of voters and belief in core democratic values. The survey data provides for crucial social science insights, validation of theoretical research and academic knowledge production. Although the media’s obsession with political forecasting has shifted to electoral prophecy, psephology continues to provide the best telescopic view of elections based on the feedback of citizens. The ascertainment of subaltern opinion by surveys not only broadens the contours of understanding electoral democracy, but also provides an empirical alternative to the elitist viewpoint of competitive politics in India.
Social Change, 2007
Based on primary and secondary sources, this paper attempts to ascertain the underlying patterns ... more Based on primary and secondary sources, this paper attempts to ascertain the underlying patterns and themes of women's political participation and their levels of inclusion or exclusion from the political process. A balance sheet of gender participation in formal politics reveals that there has been marked increase in voting turnout and election campaigning among women although they still continue to be excluded from legislative bodies at national and state level and deprived from key decision making positions in government and political parties.
Field-based research shows ‘interest in polities’ as the key determinant and one of the best predictors of women's levels of political participation. Among other factors that seem to determine the intensity of women's formal participation in politics, ‘media exposure’-proxy for awareness-emerges as important variable.
The key areas that need to be addressed for improving political participation of women and inclusion in the political process are affirmative action, better representation in legislative bodies and political parties, particularly in the decision making bodies as well as cabinet berths in government at centre and state level in partnership with civil society.
South Asia Research, 2019
After India’s General Election of 2014, political analysts coined the term ‘Modi wave’ to depict ... more After India’s General Election of 2014, political analysts coined the term ‘Modi wave’ to depict the phenomenon of a strong leader who manages to obtain a major gain in a landslide victory. Still wondering whether this would be a one-off phenomenon, analysts found in 2019 to their surprise that India’s most recent Parliamentary elections created a repeat wave. The article theorises the concept of ‘wave election’ and revisits earlier Indian elections to track the appearance of such waves. It then proceeds to examine what may make the most recent Modi ‘wave’ pertinent for future analysis, suggesting that more attention to the phenomenon of charisma and wider transformational agenda of governance rather than excessive focus on religion and saffron elements may be crucial to understand what is happening in India.
Economic & Political Weekly, 2017
Politics in India has been driving the economy wheels, but post liberalisation, economic issues h... more Politics in India has been driving the economy wheels, but post liberalisation, economic issues have started influencing the outcome of electoral competitions in the country. The political message of the Gujarat mandate for the BJP is heartening and will provide it a winning momentum in the next cycle of elections in five states. The twin election triumphs for the BJP is a short-term affirmation of the initiation of GST and currency exchange programme, though its long term impact would be assessed by the electorate in the next general elections.
The use of EVMs in elections courted a lot of controversy in recent times with parties opposed to the BJP levelling allegations of tampering and questioning the election results. The Gujarat result, which was a mirror reflection of the ground situation, should end the various conspiracy theories on the misuse of EVMs and restore the credibility of the ECI.
Economic & Political Weekly, 2017
The Gujarat election, like other state elections in the country, would be clichéd, starting on we... more The Gujarat election, like other state elections in the country, would be clichéd, starting on welfarist and people-centric agenda and escalate to communal rhetoric and caste, community overtones in the final days of campaigning. The state mandate in Gujarat would be explained in the paradigm of referendum on GST and the issue will be assigned as the main agenda item for the next general Election. But, the impact of GST or demonetisation based on state election outcomes on national politics would be an exaggeration, as the political dynamics and issue dimensions of party competitions at the national and state level elections are not only tangentially different but also spatially segregated. Major policy engagements like GST and demonetisation could at best be test-marketed in state elections but its positive results cannot be superimposed as a national referendum for the central government in Delhi. It will not only be politically naïve, but also potentially misleading, as national issues raised in state elections are outliers with non-computable causal effects on provincial mandates.
Economic & Political Weekly, 2014
There are many challenges in conducting election surveys that measure voter preferences correctly... more There are many challenges in conducting election surveys that measure voter preferences correctly and when the results of these surveys are used to make seat predictions the margin of error can be large. As the record of pre-poll opinion surveys in the 2004 and 2009 Lok Sabha elections shows, the opinion polls have many weaknesses while attempting to make forecasts in a complex situation. In such a setting, the polls can be used as covert instruments by political parties to make seat predictions and thereby influence the electorate.
Seminar, 2016
The election surveys over the last two decades have been a valuable and reliable source of inform... more The election surveys over the last two decades have been a valuable and reliable source of information on India’s electoral politics as it provides a nuanced understanding of the factors that determines the verdict-why people voted the way they did, the changes and continuities from the past, and what the future might look like. The scientific models of political prediction based on opinion polls and human behaviour are more prone to error, but it must not be reduced merely to an election time media entertainment. The allegations that ‘paid election surveys’ can be used by political parties to influence voter expectations about electoral prospects of different parties seems to be grossly exaggerated, as there are no documentary evidence to prove these hyperboles. The intrinsic bias against forecasting needs to be curbed, as elections remain the most opportune moment to study Indian politics and people.
Economic and Political Weekly, 2014
The very mention of the word opinion Poll immediately brings to the mind of people
in India elect... more The very mention of the word opinion Poll immediately brings to the mind of people
in India election surveys, exit polls and seat predictions that appear in mass media
every time an election takes place in the country. Psephology, the study of elections,
began as an academic exercise at the Centre for the Study of Developing Studies
(CSDS), Delhi in the 1960s for the purpose of studying the voting behaviour and
attitudes of the voters. Psephology is now equated with pre poll surveys and exit polls
which are being rampantly done by media houses to predict the winners during the
elections. It has now been reduced to a media gimmick with allegations that it is used
as communication tool for influencing the voters by a conglomerate of political parties, media and business houses with vested interests. Media houses and television anchors in India have become the modern day “Nostradamus” in using opinion poll findings in forecasting election results, before the actual votes are cast, which have gone wrong on many occasions.
Economic & Political Weekly, 2009
An inability to command support from varied sections of the electorate, a fragmentation of suppor... more An inability to command support from varied sections of the electorate, a fragmentation of support among the adivasis and youth disenchantment have together contributed to the decline of the Jharkhand Mukti Morcha in Jharkhand. This is despite years of mobilisation by the organisation for the cause of a separate state and greater political representation for the marginalised people.
Economic & Political Weekly, 2009
The issues raised in the 2009 Lok Sabha election campaign by the major alliances and the response... more The issues raised in the 2009 Lok Sabha election campaign by the major alliances and the response of voters to them present a mixed picture. The National Election Study 2009 survey indicates that voters did not consider some of the issues highlighted by political parties to have much relevance to them and these had almost no impact on voting decisions. They included, for instance, the Bharatiya Janata Party’s campaign issues such as the Indo-United States nuclear deal and the Ram Sethu controversy. However, economic concerns, basic services, welfare policies and citizens’ security were significant in influencing voting decisions. Surprisingly, the United Progressive Alliance’s vote did not suffer much even though the price rise and terrorist attacks during the government’s term in office were matters of concern to a majority of the voters.
Economic and Political Weekly, 2004
In the jat-dominated politics of the state, the Congress benefited from the negative image of the... more In the jat-dominated politics of the state, the Congress benefited from the negative image of the chief minister and his family. The outcome of the Lok Sabha elections in Haryana proves that a good development record alone does not ensure that a party will perform well in an election, if it denies the people their democratic rights.
Economic & Political Weekly, 2009
In every election since the creation of Haryana, the ruling party has been defeated, but this tim... more In every election since the creation of Haryana, the ruling party has been defeated, but this time around there has been a reversal of this ant-incumbency trend. State level
factors played a far more important role than national level issues in deciding the outcome in the 2009 Lok Sabha election. The Chief Minister Bhupinder Singh Hooda
factor was in large measure responsible for this tilt as the people had not forgotten the ills of the previous O P Chautala government.
Economic & Political Weekly, 2011
Women’s participation in formal politics in India reveals that there has been a marked increase i... more Women’s participation in formal politics in India reveals that there has been a marked increase in their voting turnout and election campaigning. While there have been significant gains in these two areas, women continue to be under-represented in legislative bodies both at the national and state level and in political parties. An analysis of the factors influencing participation reveals that these differ for women in
elections as voters and their involvement as campaigners. All said and done, positive affirmative action in the form of reservation in legislative bodies, greater accommodation of women in decision-making positions in political parties and in government would go a long way in addressing a serious lacuna in politics in the country.
The Bharatiya Janata Party’s win in Chhattisgarh can be attributed to a positive appraisal by the... more The Bharatiya Janata Party’s win in Chhattisgarh can be attributed to a positive appraisal by the voting populace of the state government’s performance in the state.
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Journal Article by Praveen Rai
Field-based research shows ‘interest in polities’ as the key determinant and one of the best predictors of women's levels of political participation. Among other factors that seem to determine the intensity of women's formal participation in politics, ‘media exposure’-proxy for awareness-emerges as important variable.
The key areas that need to be addressed for improving political participation of women and inclusion in the political process are affirmative action, better representation in legislative bodies and political parties, particularly in the decision making bodies as well as cabinet berths in government at centre and state level in partnership with civil society.
The use of EVMs in elections courted a lot of controversy in recent times with parties opposed to the BJP levelling allegations of tampering and questioning the election results. The Gujarat result, which was a mirror reflection of the ground situation, should end the various conspiracy theories on the misuse of EVMs and restore the credibility of the ECI.
in India election surveys, exit polls and seat predictions that appear in mass media
every time an election takes place in the country. Psephology, the study of elections,
began as an academic exercise at the Centre for the Study of Developing Studies
(CSDS), Delhi in the 1960s for the purpose of studying the voting behaviour and
attitudes of the voters. Psephology is now equated with pre poll surveys and exit polls
which are being rampantly done by media houses to predict the winners during the
elections. It has now been reduced to a media gimmick with allegations that it is used
as communication tool for influencing the voters by a conglomerate of political parties, media and business houses with vested interests. Media houses and television anchors in India have become the modern day “Nostradamus” in using opinion poll findings in forecasting election results, before the actual votes are cast, which have gone wrong on many occasions.
factors played a far more important role than national level issues in deciding the outcome in the 2009 Lok Sabha election. The Chief Minister Bhupinder Singh Hooda
factor was in large measure responsible for this tilt as the people had not forgotten the ills of the previous O P Chautala government.
elections as voters and their involvement as campaigners. All said and done, positive affirmative action in the form of reservation in legislative bodies, greater accommodation of women in decision-making positions in political parties and in government would go a long way in addressing a serious lacuna in politics in the country.
Field-based research shows ‘interest in polities’ as the key determinant and one of the best predictors of women's levels of political participation. Among other factors that seem to determine the intensity of women's formal participation in politics, ‘media exposure’-proxy for awareness-emerges as important variable.
The key areas that need to be addressed for improving political participation of women and inclusion in the political process are affirmative action, better representation in legislative bodies and political parties, particularly in the decision making bodies as well as cabinet berths in government at centre and state level in partnership with civil society.
The use of EVMs in elections courted a lot of controversy in recent times with parties opposed to the BJP levelling allegations of tampering and questioning the election results. The Gujarat result, which was a mirror reflection of the ground situation, should end the various conspiracy theories on the misuse of EVMs and restore the credibility of the ECI.
in India election surveys, exit polls and seat predictions that appear in mass media
every time an election takes place in the country. Psephology, the study of elections,
began as an academic exercise at the Centre for the Study of Developing Studies
(CSDS), Delhi in the 1960s for the purpose of studying the voting behaviour and
attitudes of the voters. Psephology is now equated with pre poll surveys and exit polls
which are being rampantly done by media houses to predict the winners during the
elections. It has now been reduced to a media gimmick with allegations that it is used
as communication tool for influencing the voters by a conglomerate of political parties, media and business houses with vested interests. Media houses and television anchors in India have become the modern day “Nostradamus” in using opinion poll findings in forecasting election results, before the actual votes are cast, which have gone wrong on many occasions.
factors played a far more important role than national level issues in deciding the outcome in the 2009 Lok Sabha election. The Chief Minister Bhupinder Singh Hooda
factor was in large measure responsible for this tilt as the people had not forgotten the ills of the previous O P Chautala government.
elections as voters and their involvement as campaigners. All said and done, positive affirmative action in the form of reservation in legislative bodies, greater accommodation of women in decision-making positions in political parties and in government would go a long way in addressing a serious lacuna in politics in the country.
The authors trace the tradition of measuring voting behavior in India from a historical perspective, beginning with a constituency-level study of the Poona Lok Sabha constituency in 1967. They move on to discuss in great detail the survey method for measuring voting behavior widely used in the 1990s and even after that. The book introduces to the readers details of conducting election surveys, that is, sampling, questionnaire design, field work and data collection, data entry and analysis, and challenges in estimating vote share based on surveys. It also delves into the various challenges and hurdles in translating vote estimates into seat estimates, with the nature of the political contest varying from one state to another. The book poses the major challenges in measuring the voting behavior of Indian voters and tries to offer possible solutions to meet these challenges.
money. Observers have been watching keenly. The electoral exercise in the state is a political extravaganza due its vast proportions in terms of geographical space, the electorate and representation in Indian Parliament.
Though women’s movement is currently sporadic and yet to take firm roots, but their fight to restore and strengthen womenfolk in different regions of the country indicates a positive step in the long march towards improving the status of women in Afghanistan. The key areas that needs immediate addressable for improving the gender empowerment are healthcare, education and discrimination. The government of Afghanistan should make a concerted effort in partnership with civil society for their overall upliftment and advancement as guaranteed by the constitution.