Govt Securities Market
Govt Securities Market
Govt Securities Market
Outline of Presentation
Structure of Bond Markets in India Institutional Arrangements with RBI Central Government
Trends in Budget Deficits and Debt Fiscal and Debt Market Reforms Impact of Reforms on the Debt Market Measures to Deal with External Account Pressures
State Governments
Trends in Budget Deficits and Debt Fiscal and Debt Market Reforms Issues in Development of State Government Securities
Central Government
3.26 4.07
2.49 1.49
2.50 0.86
4.01 0.93
4.39 1.47
4.40 1.11
3.56 -0.03
2.51 -0.06
2.60 0.46
2.14 0.22
1990- 1991- 1995- 2000- 2001- 2002- 2003- 2004- 2005- 200691 92 96 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 (RE) (BE) 7.1 14.9 0.5 6.3 4.0 -8.2 -10.9 11.8 5.1 5.6
17.9
20.7
56.4
61.8
64.4
71.8
72.1
40.7
69.2
76.5
49.5
45.5
26.8
32.9
32.7
35.2
42.0
54.0
15.4
17.9
Per cent
Centre
States
Total
and revenue surplus thereafter Containment of GFD to 3 % of GDP by 2008-09 (4.5% in 2003-04) RD and GFD placed at 2.0% and 3.7% of GDP in 2006-07 (RE) RD and GFD budgeted to decline to 1.5% and 3.3% of GDP in 2007-08 RBI prohibited from Participation in Primary Issuances of G-Secs
Impact
Preemption of Financial Savings No possibility of Price Discovery Dormant Debt Market
2005
8,953 28.69 239.9 14.13
2006
9,767 27.67 212.9 16.9
5.71 4-30
6.11 5-30
7.34 5-30
12 10 8 6 4 2 0
1995-96 1996-97 1997-98 1998-99 1999-00 2000-01 2001-02 2002-03 2003-04 2004-05 2005-06
Yield Curve
Development of a Smooth Yield Curve
16 14 12 10 8 6 4 2 0 1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 25 27 29 Maturity (Years) Mar-97 Mar-04 Jan-07
Per cent
0% 5% 1% 0% 13% 25%
Co mmercial B anks Lif e Insurance Co rp o rat io n o f Ind ia # Unit Trust o f Ind ia NA B A RD Emp lo yees Pro vid ent Fund Scheme Co al M ines Pro vid ent Fund Scheme Primary d ealers
56%
Ot hers
0% 0% 2% 0% 0%
Res erve Bank of India (own account) Com m ercial Banks Life Ins urance Corporation of India # Unit Trus t of India NABARD
20% 53%
Em ployees Provident Fund Schem e Coal Mines Provident Fund Schem e Prim ary dealers Others
External Borrowings
Low Share of External Debt External Borrowings only from Multilateral
and Bilateral Sources
100.0 80.0
Per cent
60.0 40.0 20.0 0.0 1950-51 1980-81 1990-91 2000-01 2006-07 (BE) Domestic Liabilities External Liabilities
Original Sin?
India
Low Share of External Liabilities in Sovereign Borrowing Sovereign Borrowings only from Multilateral/Bilateral Sources States not permitted to raise external debt directly Foreign investment allowed in locaL currency bonds but within an overall ceiling pros and cons of sovereign foreign currency borrowing Rationale for calibrating foreign investment in domestic currency bonds
Issues
intermediaries Total External debt $132 bn as at end Sept 2006 Long-term debt $126 bn Rise in external debt ECBs, NRI, shortterm
State Governments
1990- 1991- 1995- 2000- 2001- 2002- 2003- 2004- 2005- 200691 92 96 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 (RE) (BE) 53.1 49.6 47.1 9.4 11.4 -0.9 11.5 -15.1 2.3 4.8
12.0
17.5
18.7
14.0
18.0
27.9
38.4
30.1
15.7
21.0
32.9
34.2
36.4 40.2
37.1 33.5
51.2 21.9
16.9 33.2
66.5 18.5
65.0 17.0
53.5 20.7
Fiscal Reforms
Twelfth Finance Commission
Fiscal Restructuring Plan: Fiscal Discipline Incentivised Enactment of FRL through Debt Consolidation and Relief Facility (DCRF) Financial Disintermediation by Centre
Experience
FRL Enactment 24 States RD to be nearly eliminated and GFD-GDP ratio to decline to 2.7% in 2006-07
Proposed Measures
Non-competitive bidding Issuance calendar Use for Liquidity adjustment facility
develop Access to bank credit Access to external sources of finance Require well developed accounting legal and regulatory systems Rating agencies Rigorous disclosure standards and effective governance of corporations Payment and settlement systems Secondary markets
of securities Initial focus reform of private placement market by encouraging rating of issues Further reforms needed Appointment of a High Powered Committee
measures to bring in retail investors Listing of primary issues and creation of a centralized database of primary issues Electronic trading system Comprehensive automated trade reporting system Safe and efficient clearing and settlement standards Repo in corporate bonds Promote credit enhancement Specialized debt funds to fund infrastructure projects Development of a municipal bond market
Active Consolidation Floating Rate Bonds and Inflation-Indexed Bonds STRIPS Corporate Bonds
Bond Insurance Institutions Institutional Investors: Credit Enhancers Securitised paper to be traded on exchanges