Canara Bank Result Updated
Canara Bank Result Updated
Canara Bank Result Updated
February 2, 2012
Canara Bank
Performance Highlights
ACCUMULATE
CMP Target Price
% chg (qoq) (2.2) (1.8) 2.7 3QFY11 2,119 1,513 1,106 % chg (yoy) (9.5) 4.2 (20.8)
`483 `528
12 months
Investment Period
Stock Info Sector Market Cap (` cr) Beta 52 Week High / Low Avg. Daily Volume Face Value (`) BSE Sensex Nifty Reuters Code Bloomberg Code
For 3QFY2012, Canara Bank posted a poor set of results with net profit declining by 20.8% yoy to `876cr. While asset quality improved during the quarter, higher MTM losses on investments and NPV loss on account of restructuring of GTL dented the bottom line. We maintain our Accumulate
recommendation on the stock. NIMs remain under pressure; Slippage levels continue to decline: For 3QFY2012, the banks overall business growth remained muted with advances growing by 0.6% qoq (15.5% yoy) and deposits growing by 0.9% qoq (19.7% yoy). On the deposits side, the volatile current account deposits decreased by 33.7% qoq (down 38.1% yoy). Saving account deposits also decreased sequentially by 1.1% qoq (up 8.2% yoy), leading to calculated CASA ratio declining by 224bp qoq to 23.6%. The banks reported NIMs slipped by 12bp to 2.5% during 3QFY2012 on account of 14bp rise in the cost of deposits to 7.3%. Commission and brokerage income remained muted during the quarter growing by 0.5% qoq (21.2% yoy) to `205cr. Recoveries from written-off accounts which have been strong over the past few quarters, halved sequentially to `68cr. The banks slippage levels at `862cr (~250cr due to 2 accounts and expected to be upgraded in 4QFY2012) declined for the 3rd consecutive quarter. The bank took a hit of `185cr on MTM losses during 3QFY2012. The bank restructured `1,559cr worth of accounts during 3QFY2012, of which `1,000 was on account of restructuring of GTL (also led to NPV loss of ~`150cr). The outstanding restructured book as of 3QFY2012 stands at `9,555cr. Outlook and valuation: The stock has considerably underperformed the peers (Bank Nifty by 15% over the past one year), primarily due to concerns regarding NIMs and asset quality. Though a weakening domestic macro-economic environment and consequently slower credit growth and ailing asset quality are likely to cap near-term upsides, but cyclically moderate valuations of 1.0x FY2013E ABV vs. 5-year average of 1.15x and range of 0.8-1.4x, in our view largely factor in the negatives. Hence, we recommend Accumulate on the stock with a target price of `528. Key financials
Y/E March (` cr) NII % chg Net profit % chg NIM (%) EPS (`) P/E (x) P/ABV (x) RoA (%) RoE (%)
Source: Company, Angel Research
Shareholding Pattern (%) Promoters MF / Banks / Indian Fls FII / NRIs / OCBs Indian Public / Others 67.7 11.3 13.6 7.4
3m (1.0) (1.3)
FY2010 5,681 20.4 3,021 45.8 2.4 73.7 6.5 1.6 1.2 26.8
FY2011 7,823 37.7 4,026 33.2 2.7 90.9 5.3 1.2 1.3 26.4
FY2012E 7,676 (1.9) 3,305 (17.9) 2.2 74.6 6.5 1.1 0.9 17.2
FY2013E 8,735 13.8 3,454 4.5 2.1 78.0 6.2 1.0 0.8 15.8
Vaibhav Agrawal
022 3935 7800 Ext: 6808 [email protected]
Shrinivas Bhutda
022 3935 7800 Ext: 6845 [email protected] Varun Varma 022 3935 7800 Ext: 6847 [email protected]
3QFY12 2QFY12 % chg (qoq) 3QFY11 % chg (yoy) 7,812 5,946 1,810 56 5,894 1,919 779 622 205 157 68 349 2,698 1,121 713 408 1,577 501 142 359 1,076 200 876 18.6 7,614 5,826 1,730 59 5,653 1,962 828 679 204 149 135 340 2,790 1,185 767 418 1,605 553 477 76 1,052 200 852 19.0 2.6 2.1 4.6 (4.2) 211.1 4.3 (2.2) (5.9) (8.4) 0.5 5.4 (49.6) 2.6 (3.3) (5.4) (7.1) (2.2) (1.8) (9.4) (70.2) 370.4 2.2 2.7 (41)bp 5,908 4,326 1,531 51 3,789 2,119 537 508 169 29 72 267 2,656 1,143 784 359 1,513 157 130 27 1,356 250 1,106 18.4 32.2 37.4 18.2 10.0 211.1 55.6 (9.5) 45.2 22.5 21.3 441.4 (5.6) 30.9 1.6 (1.9) (9.1) 13.7 4.2 218.7 9.2 1,216.6 (20.7) (20.0) (20.8) 15bp
Actual 1,919 779 2,698 1,121 1,577 501 1,076 200 876
Estimates 2,022 795 2,817 1,206 1,612 457 1,155 243 912
Var (%) (5.1) (2.0) (4.2) (7.0) (2.2) 9.7 (6.9) (17.5) (4.0)
February 2, 2012
3QFY12 219,253 315,456 69.5 11,096 63,361 74,457 23.6 13.2 9.5 7.3 10.9 7.9 8.8 6.6 2.5 41.6 3,999 1.8 3,265 1.5 67.9 1.6 0.2
2QFY12 217,937 312,577 69.7 16,732 64,043 80,775 25.8 12.8 9.2 7.1 10.7 7.9 8.8 6.6 2.6 42.5 3,793 1.7 3,117 1.4 68.6 2.3 0.5
%chg (qoq) 0.6 0.9 (22)bp (33.7) (1.1) (7.8) (224)bp 44bp 33bp 14bp 13bp 4bp 3bp 4bp (12)bp (91)bp 5.4 8bp 4.8 6bp (76)bp (70)bp (39)bp
3QFY11 189,882 263,497 72.1 17,938 58,558 76,496 29.0 13.0 8.3 5.7 9.7 7.7 8.1 5.3 3.2 43.0 2,753 1.4 1,991 1.1 75.9 1.2 0.2
%chg (yoy) 15.5 19.7 (256)bp (38.1) 8.2 (2.7) (543)bp 20bp 121bp 161bp 118bp 25bp 67bp 133bp (69)bp (148)bp 45.3 37bp 64.0 44bp (805)bp 40bp (2)bp
3QFY11 % chg (yoy) 27,056 35,348 23,183 15.2 10.4 19.0 7.6 15.5
February 2, 2012
On the deposits side, the volatile current account deposits decreased by 33.7% qoq (down 38.1% yoy). Saving account deposits also declined sequentially by 1.1% qoq (up 8.2% yoy), leading to calculated CASA ratio declining by 224bp qoq to 23.6%.
11.9 11.6
29.0
28.3
25.4
25.8
7.8 5.7
1.2 2.1
1.4 4.1
0.6 0.9
3.0
68.0
20.0
The banks NIMs have been under pressure lately as moderating CASA growth over the last one year has led to higher cost of deposits for the bank. The banks reported NIMs slipped by 12bp to 2.5% during 3QFY2012 on back of 14bp rise in the cost of deposits to 7.3%. The management attributed the declining trend in CASA ratio to mostly flight of saving deposits to higher yielding term deposits and difficulty in sustaining the current account balances at current levels.
February 2, 2012
23.6
22.5
3QFY12 2QFY12 205 157 68 349 779 622 204 149 135 340 828 679
% chg (qoq) 3QFY11 0.5 5.4 (49.6) 2.6 (5.9) (8.4) 169 29 72 267 537 508
1.2
4.4
2.6
2.3
1.6
1.5 1.1
1.4 1.1
1.5 1.1
1.7 1.3
1.7 1.4
60.0
February 2, 2012
43.0
41.7
45.2
42.5
41.6
40.0
0.5 -
Investment concerns
Weak liability franchise likely to keep the NIM under pressure
The bank has a relatively weaker liability profile with a calculated CASA base at 23.6%. In fact, in 3QFY2012, overall CASA deposits growth turned negative at 2.7% yoy as compared to 27.7% yoy growth witnessed in 3QFY2011. The bank has a relatively higher proportion of more costly bulk deposits and CDs at ~30% of deposits, which makes the bank more vulnerable to a faster rise in cost of funds in the current high interest rate scenario. Margin pressures were evident in 3QFY2012 also with the NIMs declining by 12bp as cost pressures continued to mount. Accordingly, we have built in a ~50bp dip in NIM for FY2012 over FY2011 levels.
February 2, 2012
Earlier estimates FY2012 18.0 16.0 27.8 2.2 11.0 2.0 15.0 2.6 67.0 FY2013 15.0 16.0 27.3 2.2 12.9 15.0 15.0 2.7 63.0
Revised estimates FY2012 15.0 15.0 28.0 2.2 8.0 (3.0) 13.0 2.6 67.0 FY2013 16.0 16.0 27.5 2.1 10.2 15.0 15.0 1.9 68.0
FY2013 Earlier estimates 9,021 3,389 12,409 5,403 7,007 2,031 4,975 1,493 3,483 Revised Var. (%) estimates 8,735 3,217 11,951 5,199 6,752 1,818 4,934 1,480 3,454 (3.2) (5.1) (3.7) (3.8) (3.6) (10.5) (0.8) (0.8) (0.8)
Earlier estimates 7,865 3,001 10,866 4,698 6,168 1,827 4,341 912 3,430
Revised Var. (%) estimates 7,676 2,919 10,595 4,521 6,074 1,891 4,183 878 3,305 (2.4) (2.7) (2.5) (3.8) (1.5) 3.5 (3.6) (3.6) (3.6)
Feb-07
Oct-08
May-08
Nov-10
Dec-07
February 2, 2012
Mar-09
Aug-09
Feb-12
Sep-06
Sep-11
Apr-06
Jan-10
Jun-10
Jul-07
Apr-11
Source: Company, Angel Research; Note:*Target multiples=SOTP Target Price/ABV (including subsidiaries), #Without adjusting for SASF
February 2, 2012
Income statement
Y/E March (` cr) Net Interest Income - YoY Growth (%) Other Income - YoY Growth (%) Operating Income - YoY Growth (%) Operating Expenses - YoY Growth (%) Pre - Provision Profit - YoY Growth (%) Prov. & Cont. - YoY Growth (%) Profit Before Tax - YoY Growth (%) Prov. for Taxation - as a % of PBT PAT - YoY Growth (%) FY08 3,538 (12.1) 2,308 52.7 5,846 5.6 2,791 8.8 3,055 2.7 1,150 (11.7) 1,905 14.0 340 17.8 1,565 10.1 FY09 4,718 33.4 2,427 5.1 7,145 22.2 3,065 9.8 4,080 33.5 1,507 31.1 2,572 35.0 500 19.4 2,072 32.4 FY10 5,681 20.4 2,858 17.7 8,538 19.5 3,478 13.5 5,061 24.1 1,239 (17.8) 3,821 48.6 800 20.9 3,021 45.8 FY11 7,823 37.7 2,703 (5.4) 10,526 23.3 4,419 27.1 6,107 20.7 1,081 (12.8) 5,026 31.5 1,000 19.9 4,026 33.2 FY12E 7,676 (1.9) 2,919 8.0 10,595 0.7 4,521 2.3 6,074 (0.5) 1,891 74.9 4,183 (16.8) 878 21.0 3,305 (17.9) FY13E 8,735 13.8 3,217 10.2 11,951 12.8 5,199 15.0 6,752 11.2 1,818 (3.9) 4,934 18.0 1,480 30.0 3,454 4.5
Balance sheet
Y/E March (` cr) Share Capital Reserve & Surplus Deposits - Growth (%) Borrowings Tier 2 Capital Other Liab. & Prov. Total Liabilities Cash Balances Bank Balances Investments Advances - Growth (%) Fixed Assets Other Assets Total Assets - Growth (%) FY08 410 10,090 154,072 8.2 2,517 6,115 7,175 180,380 13,365 4,513 49,812 107,238 8.9 2,917 2,536 180,380 8.8 FY09 410 11,798 186,893 21.3 7,057 6,944 6,498 219,599 10,037 6,623 57,777 138,219 28.9 2,929 4,014 219,599 21.7 FY10 410 14,262 234,651 25.6 1,041 7,399 6,977 264,741 15,719 3,934 69,677 169,335 22.5 2,859 3,217 264,741 20.6 FY11 443 19,597 293,973 25.3 5,198 9,063 7,805 336,079 22,015 8,693 83,700 212,467 25.5 2,844 6,359 336,079 26.9 FY12E 443 22,181 338,069 15.0 5,999 10,423 10,707 387,821 21,974 10,032 100,537 244,337 15.0 3,184 7,756 387,821 15.4 FY13E 443 24,888 392,160 16.0 6,947 12,090 12,572 449,099 25,490 11,617 116,003 283,431 16.0 3,576 8,982 449,099 15.8
February 2, 2012
Ratio analysis
Y/E March Profitability ratios (%) NIMs Cost to Income Ratio RoA RoE B/S ratios (%) CASA Ratio Credit/Deposit Ratio CAR - Tier I Asset Quality (%) Gross NPAs Net NPAs Slippages Loan Loss Prov. /Avg. Assets Provision Coverage Per Share Data (`) EPS ABVPS (75% cover.) DPS Valuation Ratios PER (x) P/ABVPS (x) Dividend Yield DuPont Analysis NII (-) Prov. Exp. Adj. NII Treasury Int. Sens. Inc. Other Inc. Op. Inc. Opex PBT Taxes RoA Leverage RoE 2.0 0.7 1.4 0.3 1.6 1.1 2.7 1.6 1.1 0.2 0.9 21.1 19.1 2.4 0.8 1.6 0.3 1.9 0.9 2.8 1.5 1.3 0.3 1.0 21.8 22.6 2.3 0.5 1.8 0.4 2.2 0.8 3.0 1.4 1.6 0.3 1.2 21.5 26.8 2.6 0.4 2.2 0.1 2.3 0.8 3.1 1.5 1.7 0.3 1.3 19.7 26.4 2.1 0.5 1.6 0.1 1.7 0.7 2.4 1.2 1.2 0.2 0.9 18.8 17.2 2.1 0.4 1.7 0.0 1.7 0.7 2.4 1.2 1.2 0.4 0.8 19.1 15.8 12.4 2.5 1.7 9.3 2.1 1.7 6.4 1.5 2.1 5.2 1.2 2.3 6.3 1.1 3.0 6.0 0.9 3.1 38.2 188.4 8.0 50.5 221.3 8.0 73.7 305.8 10.0 90.9 401.1 11.0 74.6 442.2 14.0 78.0 502.6 14.5 1.3 0.9 1.4 0.5 34.5 1.6 1.1 2.2 0.5 30.5 1.5 1.1 2.4 0.6 77.7 1.4 0.8 2.1 0.3 73.0 2.3 1.6 2.6 0.4 67.0 2.9 1.6 1.9 0.4 68.0 31.5 69.6 13.3 7.0 30.1 74.0 14.1 8.0 29.1 72.2 13.4 8.5 28.3 72.3 15.4 10.9 28.0 72.3 15.4 10.7 27.5 72.3 15.2 10.4 2.1 47.7 0.9 19.1 2.4 42.9 1.0 22.6 2.4 40.7 1.2 26.8 2.7 42.0 1.3 26.4 2.2 42.7 0.9 17.2 2.1 43.5 0.8 15.8 FY08 FY09 FY10 FY11 FY12E FY13E
February 2, 2012
10
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Disclosure of Interest Statement 1. Analyst ownership of the stock 2. Angel and its Group companies ownership of the stock 3. Angel and its Group companies' Directors ownership of the stock 4. Broking relationship with company covered
Canara Bank No No No No
Note: We have not considered any Exposure below ` 1 lakh for Angel, its Group companies and Directors
Ratings (Returns):
February 2, 2012
11