Indian Bank: Performance Highlights
Indian Bank: Performance Highlights
Indian Bank: Performance Highlights
Indian Bank
Performance Highlights
NEUTRAL
CMP Target Price
2QFY13 1,153 840 462 % chg (qoq) (2.8) 8.0 7.3 2QFY12 1,135 921 469 % chg (yoy) (1.3) (1.5) 5.7
`178 -
Investment Period
Stock Info Sector Market Cap (` cr) Beta 52 Week High / Low Avg. Daily Volume Face Value (`) BSE Sensex Nifty Reuters Code Bloomberg Code Banking 7,669 1.1 265/152 22,179 10 18,625 5,664 INBA.BO INBK@IN
During 2QFY2013, Indian Bank reported a poor operating performance, with flattish operating income and a 1.5% yoy decline in the operating profit. However, 8.2% yoy decline in provisioning expenses (on a base of higher investment provisioning in 2QFY2012 and write-back of contingent provision) as well as large `101cr interest on IT refund, aided the bank to report an earnings growth of 5.7% yoy. NIMs decline sequentially; Slippages higher due to one chunky account: The advances for the bank grew at a moderate pace of 10.8% yoy during 2QFY2013, mainly aided by a strong growth in the agri segments and the overseas book. Despite a 13.5% yoy growth in savings deposits, the growth in the low-cost CASA franchise remained moderate at 9.8% yoy, due to a 5.4% yoy decline in current deposits. The CASA ratio for the bank dipped 35bp sequentially to 29.0%. The reported NIM for the bank declined sequentially by 18bp to 3.3% largely due to a 16bp fall in the yield on advances on interest reversal of `26cr on slipped accounts and full impact of base rate reduction in May 2012. The growth in noninterest income (excluding treasury) for the bank remained muted at 3.7% yoy to `333cr, despite being aided by interest on IT refund amounting to `101cr. On the asset quality front, slippages came in at `734cr (which included one chunky account of `360cr - currently referred to CDR) compared to `232cr in 1QFY2013 and quarterly average of `425cr since 1QFY2011. Annualized slippage ratio came in at 3.3%, much higher than 1.0% witnessed in 1QFY2013 and average run rate of 2.4% since 1QFY2011. On an absolute basis, both gross and net NPA levels increased by 27.4% and 30.8%, respectively. PCR for the bank dipped sequentially by 411bp to 71%. Additionally, the bank restructured ~`675cr worth of advances, thereby taking its outstanding restructured book to `10,349cr as of 2QFY2013. As per the management, no major restructuring is in the pipeline, except for the aforementioned exposure of ~`360cr under CDR. Outlook and valuation: The stock currently trades at 0.7x FY2014E ABV, below its eight-year trading range (0.8x-1.3x) and median of 1.0x. However, in our view, upsides are likely to be lower than peers as we remain circumspect on the banks high RoAs and remain cautious on its asset quality. Hence, we recommend a Neutral rating on the stock.
Shareholding Pattern (%) Promoters MF / Banks / Indian Fls FII / NRIs / OCBs Indian Public / Others 80.0 5.4 8.7 5.9
3m 11.9 (3.1)
FY2011 4,036 27.7 1,714 10.2 3.7 38.8 4.6 1.0 1.5 23.5
FY2012 4,418 9.5 1,747 1.9 3.5 39.6 4.5 0.8 1.3 20.4
FY2013E 4,726 7.0 1,792 2.6 3.2 40.6 4.4 0.7 1.2 18.1
FY2014E 5,407 14.4 1,844 2.9 3.2 41.8 4.3 0.6 1.1 16.3
Vaibhav Agrawal
022 3935 7800 Ext: 6808 [email protected]
Varun Varma
022 3935 7800 Ext: 6847 [email protected]
Sourabh Taparia
022 3935 7800 Ext: 6872 [email protected]
2QFY13 1QFY13 % chg (qoq) 2QFY12 % chg (yoy) 95,000 72.4 6,448 31,546 37,994 29.0 13.0 10.7 7.1 11.1 3.1 38.9 1,980 2.1 1,260 1.3 71.0 3.3 0.7 93,876 73.9 6,292 30,936 37,228 29.3 13.0 10.7 7.0 11.3 3.3 38.9 1,554 1.7 963 1.0 75.1 1.0 0.3 1.2 (149)bp 2.5 2.0 2.1 (35)bp (2)bp (1)bp 7bp (16)bp (18)bp (8)bp 27.4 40bp 30.8 29bp (411)bp 222bp 40bp 85,765 73.8 6,813 27,804 34,617 29.8 12.2 9.9 6.6 12.1 3.8 37.7 1,048 1.2 596 0.7 79.4 2.0 0.3 10.8 12.9 (138)bp (5.4) 13.5 9.8 (82)bp 73bp 82bp 48bp (94)bp (64)bp 117bp 89.0 85bp 111.4 64bp (838)bp 123bp 36bp
131,180 127,012
3.3 116,218
23.5 18.6
18.2 17.8
20.0 14.2
13.8 15.0
29.8
30.2
30.5
29.3
70.0
29.0
5.0
10.8 12.9
During the quarter, the bank restructured ~`675cr worth of advances, thereby taking its outstanding restructured book to `10,349cr as of 2QFY2013. As per the management, no major restructuring is in the pipeline except for `360cr of the aforementioned exposure which is under CDR.
1.2 0.7
1.4 0.8
2.0 1.3
1.7 1.0
2.1 1.3
2.0
1.6
5.5
1.0
3.3
0.2 -
65.0
750 600
38.9
38.9
206
190
450 300
168
166
197
37.7
37.2
42.6
38.9
367
372
386
369
379
150 -
10.0 -
38.9
36.0 34.0
1.4 1.3
Investment arguments
Indian Bank's performance has broadly been positive and balanced since its listing in 2007, leading to a gradual improvement in the quality of earnings, visible amongst other things in the substantial ~50bp decline in the bank's operating costs as a percentage of assets.
Investment concerns
Relatively high yields
A larger portion of SME and mid-corporate loans has contributed to the banks relatively high yield on advances. This has supported its NIM, which in FY2012 was higher than even larger banks having ~40% CASA deposits vs Indian Banks ~30%. Past experience shows that banks that delivered high NIMs on the back of high yields later paid the price for the higher risk taken in the form of higher NPAs in subsequent years. The bank had felt the heat on the asset-quality front in 4QFY2012, with significant increase in slippages and higher restructuring. Even in 1HFY2013, though recoveries are higher mainly from the slippages of 4QFY2012, fresh slippages are still on the higher side and hence we remain cautious on the banks asset quality and NIM outlook as in case of other banks with unsustainably high yields.
Earlier estimates FY2013E 14.0 14.0 29.3 3.4 (9.1) 5.0 12.0 1.7 75.0 FY2014E 15.0 15.0 28.1 3.4 2.0 15.0 15.0 2.3 75.0
Revised estimates FY2013E 14.0 14.0 29.3 3.2 (6.8) 5.0 12.0 1.7 75.0 FY2014E 15.0 15.0 28.1 3.2 (0.3) 15.0 15.0 2.0 75.0
912 (14.6)
1,124 (20.0)
0.5x
0.8x
1.1x
1.4x
1.7x
Source: Company, Angel Research; Note: *Target multiples=SOTP Target Price/ABV (including subsidiaries), # Without adjusting for SASF
Company Background
Indian Bank is a Chennai-based mid-sized public sector bank, with 1,999 branches and a balance sheet size of ~`1.5lakh cr. Around two-thirds of the bank's branches are spread across the southern states with majority being in the parent state of Tamil Nadu (~43%).
Ratio analysis
Y/E March Profitability ratios (%) NIMs Cost to Income Ratio RoA RoE B/S ratios (%) CASA Ratio Credit/Deposit Ratio CAR - Tier I Asset Quality (%) Gross NPAs Net NPAs 1.2 0.2 1.5 0.6 79.9 22.5 3.0 7.9 1.7 1.7 3.1 0.7 2.5 0.4 2.9 1.3 4.2 2.2 2.0 0.4 1.6 16.2 25.8 0.9 0.2 0.6 0.0 79.6 28.0 5.0 6.4 1.4 2.8 3.4 0.6 2.8 0.3 3.1 1.1 4.1 1.8 2.3 0.7 1.6 15.3 24.7 0.8 0.2 1.1 0.4 93.6 35.1 154.7 6.5 5.1 1.2 3.6 3.4 0.4 3.0 0.4 3.4 1.0 4.4 1.9 2.5 0.9 1.7 15.3 25.6 1.0 0.5 1.5 0.6 84.3 38.8 184.4 7.5 4.6 1.0 4.2 3.6 0.6 3.0 0.1 3.2 0.9 4.1 1.7 2.4 0.8 1.5 15.3 23.5 2.0 1.3 2.5 0.6 70.1 39.6 210.4 7.5 4.5 0.8 4.2 3.4 0.9 2.4 0.1 2.5 0.9 3.4 1.7 1.7 0.4 1.3 15.3 20.4 2.4 1.2 1.7 0.5 75.0 40.6 246.2 8.0 4.4 0.7 4.5 3.1 0.6 2.5 0.0 2.6 0.7 3.3 1.6 1.7 0.5 1.2 15.3 18.1 3.3 1.3 2.0 0.6 75.0 41.8 278.8 8.0 4.3 0.6 4.5 3.1 0.7 2.5 0.0 2.5 0.6 3.1 1.6 1.6 0.5 1.1 15.3 16.3 32.3 65.3 12.9 11.4 31.6 70.9 13.3 11.3 32.2 70.4 12.7 11.1 30.9 71.1 13.6 11.0 30.6 74.8 13.5 11.1 29.3 74.8 13.3 11.2 28.1 74.8 12.9 11.0 3.2 45.8 1.6 25.8 3.5 38.8 1.6 24.7 3.5 38.6 1.7 25.6 3.7 36.9 1.5 23.5 3.5 38.7 1.3 20.4 3.2 39.9 1.2 18.1 3.2 41.2 1.1 16.3 FY08 FY09 FY10 FY11 FY12 FY13E FY14E
Slippages
Loan loss prov. /avg. assets Provision Coverage Per Share Data (`) EPS ABVPS DPS Valuation Ratios PER (x) P/ABVPS (x) Dividend Yield DuPont Analysis (%) NII (-) Prov. Exp. Adj. NII Treasury Int. Sens. Inc. Other Inc. Op. Inc. Opex PBT Taxes RoA Leverage (x) RoE
106.9 127.5
10
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Disclosure of Interest Statement 1. Analyst ownership of the stock 2. Angel and its Group companies ownership of the stock 3. Angel and its Group companies' Directors ownership of the stock 4. Broking relationship with company covered
Indian Bank No No No No
Note: We have not considered any Exposure below ` 1 lakh for Angel, its Group companies and Directors
Ratings (Returns):
11