Yes Bank: Performance Highlights
Yes Bank: Performance Highlights
Yes Bank: Performance Highlights
Yes Bank
Performance Highlights
Particulars (` cr) NII Pre-prov. profit PAT 2QFY12 386 386 235 1QFY12 354 325 216 % chg (qoq) 8.9 18.7 8.8 2QFY11 313 281 176 % chg (yoy) 23.1 37.1 33.3
ACCUMULATE
CMP Target Price Investment Period
Stock Info Sector Market Cap (` cr) Beta 52 Week High / Low Avg. Daily Volume Face Value (`) BSE Sensex Nifty Reuters Code Bloomberg Code Banking 10,010 1.4 388/234 3,72,615 10 16,937 5,092 YESB.BO YES@IN
For 2QFY2012, Yes Bank reported a strong performance. Net profit grew by 33.3% yoy (8.8% qoq) to `235cr, above our estimate of `216cr. Profit growth was driven by 10bp increment in NIM and strong non-interest income, which registered 63.4% yoy growth. The bank continued with its strategy of slower balance sheet growth in 2QFY2012 to manage margins and risks in the current environment. We maintain our Accumulate rating on the stock. Business growth moderates; steady NIM and strong asset quality: The bank continued with its strategy of slower balance sheet growth in 2QFY2012 to manage margins and risks in the current environment. Advances grew by 12.7% yoy (3.3% qoq) and deposits grew by 10.2% yoy (1.1% qoq). CASA deposits accretion remained healthy at 19.7% yoy (almost flat qoq). The bank managed to increase its CASA ratio marginally by 4bp qoq to 11.0% due to the relative slower deposit growth. Reported NIM rose by 10bp qoq to 2.9% as yield on advances grew by 60bp to 12.2%. Higher yield on advances was supported by the 51.3% qoq growth in credit substitutes to `6,566cr. Thus, NII posted healthy growth of 23.1% yoy. The bank witnessed some weakening in NPA ratios in 2QFY2012; however, gross NPA ratio at 0.3% (0.2% in 1QFY2012) and net NPA ratio at 0.04% (0.01% in 1QFY2012) continued to be the best in the industry. Outlook and valuation: Structurally, we believe there may be downside risks to the banks RoA as Yes Banks balance sheet continues to grow rapidly. On the liabilities side, building a savings deposit franchise involves execution risks. On the positive side, the bank has doubled its branch network over the last 18 months to 305 branches. Also, we believe we are very close to the peak of the current interest rate cycle; and as liquidity has improved compared to the extreme tightness during the last few quarters, the environment is expected to be relatively more conducive for banks such as Yes Bank. The stock is trading at 1.8x FY2013E ABV. We maintain our Accumulate recommendation on the stock with a target price of `324. Key financials
Y/E March (` cr) NII % chg Net profit % chg NIM (%) EPS (`) P/E (x) P/ABV (x) RoA (%) RoE (%)
Source: Company, Angel Research
Shareholding Pattern (%) Promoters MF / Banks / Indian Fls FII / NRIs / OCBs Indian Public / Others 26.3 9.7 50.7 13.4
3m (8.5) (10.6)
FY2010
788 54.1 478 57.2 2.8 14.1 20.2 3.1 1.6 20.3
FY2011
1,247 58.2 727 52.2 2.7 20.9 13.6 2.6 1.5 21.1
FY2012E
1,564 25.4 924 27.1 2.4 26.6 10.7 2.2 1.4 22.0
FY2013E
1,884 20.5 1,046 13.2 2.4 30.1 9.5 1.8 1.3 20.8
Vaibhav Agrawal
022 3935 7800 Ext: 6808 [email protected]
Shrinivas Bhutda
022 3935 7800 Ext: 6845 [email protected]
Varun Varma
022 3935 7800 Ext: 6847 [email protected]
2QFY12 1QFY12 % chg (qoq) 2QFY11 % chg (yoy) 1,439 1,032 398 4 5 1,053 386 214 25 83 42 16 600 214 110 104 386 38 348 113 235 32.5 1,400 1,026 365 8 1 1,045 354 165 24 77 65 20 519 194 110 85 325 2 324 108 216 33.2 2.8 0.5 9.1 (48.1) 691.5 0.7 8.9 29.5 2.5 7.4 (35.8) (21.9) 15.4 10.0 0.1 22.8 18.7 2,407.9 7.6 5.1 8.8 (75)bp 954 725 224 3 1 641 313 131 23 76 34 11 444 163 88 75 281 17 264 88 176 33.2 50.8 42.3 77.3 46.8 243.4 64.4 23.1 63.4 9.3 8.9 22.4 44.0 35.0 31.3 25.3 38.4 37.1 117.1 31.9 28.9 33.3 (75)bp
Var. (%) 5.4 15.4 8.7 2.2 12.7 70.4 8.7 8.8 8.7
2QFY12 1QFY12 % chg (qoq) 2QFY11 % chg (yoy) 34,194 44,076 77.6 4,839 11.0 16.0 9.4 12.2 8.6 2.9 35.6 69 0.3 14 0.0 80.2 33,104 43,576 76.0 4,764 10.9 16.2 9.6 11.6 8.5 2.8 37.4 56 0.2 3 0.0 95.2 3.3 1.1 161bp 1.6 4bp (24)bp (20)bp 60bp 10bp 10bp (177)bp 23.0 13bp 410.9 3bp (1,505)bp 30,348 40,014 75.8 4,041 10.1 19.4 11.0 9.5 6.7 3.0 36.6 68 0.2 17 0.1 74.7 12.7 10.2 174bp 19.7 88bp (345)bp (160)bp 270bp 190bp (10)bp (100)bp 1.6 8bp (20.5) (2)bp 552bp
106.6
86.3
66.3
54.8
26.1
79.0
71.4
44.1
12.7
20.0 -
10.2
20 -
2QFY11
3QFY11
4QFY11
1QFY12
2QFY12
68.6 49.8
10.0
8.0
19.7
12.2
2QFY12 1QFY12 % chg (qoq) 2QFY11 % chg (yoy) 41 98 61 14 214 25 83 42 16 165 66.0 18.0 45.0 (8.9) 29.5 14 64 38 15 131 190.8 53.5 59.0 (4.0) 63.4
4QFY11
1QFY12
Cost-to-income ratio (%) 1.5 1.4 35.6 1.4 1.3 1.3 1.2 1.2 1.1
35.8
34.8
16.5 6.8
16.2 6.6
16.0 6.6
8.4
7.8
Investment arguments
A-list management and ability to raise capital
Yes Bank has an A-list top management team, which brings to the table rich experience from the best banks in India, including Bank of America, ABN AMRO, Citibank, ICICI Bank, Rabo India and HDFC Bank. The banks performance also benefits from managements ability to raise equity capital (at increasing, book-accretive premiums).
Investment concerns
Medium-term downside risks to RoAs
The banks credit market share has steadily increased on the back of a robust credit CAGR of 53.9% over FY2008-11, which at 0.9% represents an increasingly meaningful market share. The bank has so far managed to source loans with relatively above-average profitability, keeping its NIM above 2.7% since FY2009, in spite of just 11% CASA ratio. Going forward though, as the size of the balance sheet increases, we believe RoA compression remains a risk to the bank.
Earlier estimates FY2012 27.0 27.0 11.5 2.4 32.3 33.8 33.8 0.3 FY2013 26.0 26.0 12.4 2.3 26.0 30.0 30.0 0.4
Revised estimates FY2012 22.0 22.0 11.3 2.4 30.4 30.4 30.4 0.3 FY2013 26.0 26.0 12.2 2.4 26.0 32.0 32.0 0.5
Earlier estimates
1,528 825 2,352 909 1,443 123 1,320 428 891
Dec-05
Aug-07
Mar-07
Dec-10
Apr-09
Jul-05
Jul-10
May-06
Nov-08
May-11
Mar-12
Oct-06
Sep-09
Feb-10
Oct-11
Jan-08
Jun-08
Source: Company, Angel Research; Note:*Target multiples=SOTP Target Price/ABV (including subsidiaries), #Without adjusting for SASF
Income statement
Y/E March (` cr) Net Interest Income - YoY Growth (%) Other Income - YoY Growth (%) Operating Income - YoY Growth (%) Operating Expenses - YoY Growth (%) Pre - Provision Profit - YoY Growth (%) Prov. & Cont. - YoY Growth (%) Profit Before Tax - YoY Growth (%) Prov. for Taxation - as a % of PBT PAT - YoY Growth (%) FY07 171 94.6 201 101.1 372 98.0 194 124.7 179 75.4 35 101.3 144 49 34.3 94 FY08 331 92.9 361 79.7 691 85.8 341 76.3 350 96.0 44 24.9 306 106 34.7 200 FY09 511 54.6 435 20.6 946 36.9 419 22.7 528 50.7 62 41.6 466 52.0 162 34.8 304 51.9 FY10 788 54.1 576 32.3 1,363 44.1 500 19.5 863 63.6 137 121.6 726 55.9 249 34.2 478 57.2 FY11 1,247 58.2 623 8.3 1,870 37.2 680 35.9 1,190 37.9 98 (28.2) 1,092 50.3 365 33.4 727 52.2 FY12E 1,564 25.4 813 30.4 2,377 27.1 886 30.4 1,490 25.2 123 25.2 1,368 25.2 444 32.4 924 27.1 FY13E 1,884 20.5 1,024 26.0 2,908 22.3 1,170 32.0 1,738 16.6 190 54.2 1,548 13.2 502 32.4 1,046 13.2
70.1 113.3
70.4 111.9
Balance sheet
Y/E March (` cr) Share Capital Reserves & Surplus Deposits - Growth (%) Borrowings Tier 2 Capital Other Liab. & Prov. Total Liabilities Cash Balances Bank Balances Investments Advances - Growth (%) Fixed Assets Other Assets Total Assets - Growth (%) FY07 280 507 8,220 182.5 867 479 750 11,103 390 903 3,073 6,290 161.3 71 377 11,103 166.7 FY08 296 1,023 13,273 61.5 986 728 677 16,982 959 668 5,094 9,430 49.9 101 730 16,982 52.9 FY09 297 1,327 16,169 21.8 2,189 1,513 1,405 22,901 1,278 645 7,117 12,403 31.5 131 1,327 22,901 34.8 FY10 340 2,750 26,799 65.7 2,564 2,185 1,745 36,383 1,995 678 10,210 22,193 78.9 115 1,191 36,383 58.9 FY11 347 3,447 45,939 71.4 3,333 3,358 2,583 59,007 3,076 420 18,829 34,364 54.8 132 2,186 59,007 62.2 FY12E 347 4,250 56,045 22.0 6,021 4,097 3,127 73,887 3,643 1,478 23,944 41,924 22.0 161 2,737 73,887 25.2 FY13E 347 5,134 70,617 26.0 6,568 5,162 4,057 91,886 4,590 1,838 29,036 52,824 26.0 194 3,404 91,886 24.4
10
Ratio analysis
Y/E March Profitability ratios (%) NIMs Cost to Income Ratio RoA RoE B/S ratios (%) CASA Ratio Credit/Deposit Ratio CAR - Tier I Asset Quality (%) Gross NPAs Net NPAs Slippages Loan Loss Prov. /Avg. Assets Provision Coverage Per Share Data (`) EPS ABVPS (75% cover.) DPS Valuation Ratios PER (x) P/ABVPS (x) Dividend Yield DuPont Analysis NII (-) Prov. Exp. Adj. NII Treasury Int. Sens. Inc. Other Inc. Op. Inc. Opex PBT Taxes RoA Leverage RoE 2.2 0.5 1.8 0.1 1.9 2.5 4.4 2.5 1.9 0.6 1.2 11.2 13.9 2.4 0.3 2.0 0.4 2.5 2.1 4.6 2.4 2.2 0.8 1.4 13.3 19.0 2.6 0.3 2.3 0.7 3.0 1.4 4.4 2.1 2.3 0.8 1.5 13.6 20.6 2.7 0.5 2.2 0.3 2.5 1.6 4.1 1.7 2.5 0.8 1.6 12.6 20.3 2.6 0.2 2.4 (0.1) 2.3 1.4 3.7 1.4 2.3 0.8 1.5 13.9 21.1 2.4 0.2 2.2 0.0 2.2 1.2 3.4 1.3 2.1 0.7 1.4 15.8 22.0 2.3 0.2 2.0 0.0 2.1 1.2 3.3 1.4 1.9 0.6 1.3 16.4 20.8 84.5 10.1 42.1 6.4 27.8 5.3 20.2 3.1 0.5 13.6 2.6 0.9 10.7 2.2 1.1 9.5 1.8 1.4 3.4 28.1 6.8 44.6 10.2 53.9 14.1 1.5 20.9 2.5 26.6 3.0 30.1 4.0 91.0 109.3 132.4 157.9 0.1 0.0 0.2 0.0 80.0 0.7 0.4 0.9 0.3 48.5 0.3 0.1 0.9 0.3 78.4 0.2 0.0 0.2 0.1 88.6 0.2 0.0 0.3 0.1 88.6 0.2 0.0 0.5 0.2 88.5 5.8 76.5 13.6 8.2 8.5 71.0 13.6 8.5 8.7 76.7 15.7 9.0 10.5 82.8 19.3 12.1 10.3 74.8 15.7 9.2 11.3 74.8 15.2 8.9 12.2 74.8 15.0 8.5 2.3 52.0 1.2 13.9 2.5 49.4 1.4 19.0 2.7 44.2 1.5 20.6 2.8 36.7 1.6 20.3 2.7 36.3 1.5 21.1 2.4 37.3 1.4 22.0 2.4 40.2 1.3 20.8 FY07 FY08 FY09 FY10 FY11 FY12E FY13E
11
E-mail: [email protected]
Website: www.angelbroking.com
DISCLAIMER
This document is solely for the personal information of the recipient, and must not be singularly used as the basis of any investment decision. Nothing in this document should be construed as investment or financial advice. Each recipient of this document should make such investigations as they deem necessary to arrive at an independent evaluation of an investment in the securities of the companies referred to in this document (including the merits and risks involved), and should consult their own advisors to determine the merits and risks of such an investment. Angel Broking Limited, its affiliates, directors, its proprietary trading and investment businesses may, from time to time, make investment decisions that are inconsistent with or contradictory to the recommendations expressed herein. The views contained in this document are those of the analyst, and the company may or may not subscribe to all the views expressed within. Reports based on technical and derivative analysis center on studying charts of a stock's price movement, outstanding positions and trading volume, as opposed to focusing on a company's fundamentals and, as such, may not match with a report on a company's fundamentals. The information in this document has been printed on the basis of publicly available information, internal data and other reliable sources believed to be true, but we do not represent that it is accurate or complete and it should not be relied on as such, as this document is for general guidance only. Angel Broking Limited or any of its affiliates/ group companies shall not be in any way responsible for any loss or damage that may arise to any person from any inadvertent error in the information contained in this report. Angel Broking Limited has not independently verified all the information contained within this document. Accordingly, we cannot testify, nor make any representation or warranty, express or implied, to the accuracy, contents or data contained within this document. While Angel Broking Limited endeavours to update on a reasonable basis the information discussed in this material, there may be regulatory, compliance, or other reasons that prevent us from doing so. This document is being supplied to you solely for your information, and its contents, information or data may not be reproduced, redistributed or passed on, directly or indirectly. Angel Broking Limited and its affiliates may seek to provide or have engaged in providing corporate finance, investment banking or other advisory services in a merger or specific transaction to the companies referred to in this report, as on the date of this report or in the past. Neither Angel Broking Limited, nor its directors, employees or affiliates shall be liable for any loss or damage that may arise from or in connection with the use of this information. Note: Please refer to the important `Stock Holding Disclosure' report on the Angel website (Research Section). Also, please refer to the latest update on respective stocks for the disclosure status in respect of those stocks. Angel Broking Limited and its affiliates may have investment positions in the stocks recommended in this report.
Disclosure of Interest Statement 1. Analyst ownership of the stock 2. Angel and its Group companies ownership of the stock 3. Angel and its Group companies' Directors ownership of the stock 4. Broking relationship with company covered
Yes Bank No No No No
Note: We have not considered any Exposure below ` 1 lakh for Angel, its Group companies and Directors
Ratings (Returns):
12