Union Bank of India Result Updated
Union Bank of India Result Updated
Union Bank of India Result Updated
ACCUMULATE
CMP Target Price
% chg (qoq) 4.5 3.4 (24.1) 2QFY11 1,536 1,131 303 % chg (yoy) 8.2 6.6 16.2
`222 `238
12 Months
Investment Period
Stock Info Sector Market Cap (` cr) Beta 52 Week High / Low Avg. Daily Volume Face Value (`) BSE Sensex Nifty Reuters Code Bloomberg Code
For 2QFY2012, Union Bank of India reported disappointing numbers, which were far below ours as well as streets estimates, primarily because of the considerably higher-than-expected provisioning expenses. Substantial deterioration in asset quality was the key negative surprise from the results. We downgrade the stock from Buy (on persistent stress on the asset quality) to Accumulate. NIM improves on better CD ratio and loan yields; asset quality stress comes to the fore: The banks business growth was muted, with advances growing marginally by 1.2% qoq and deposits declining by 1.8% qoq. Even CASA deposits base was almost flat sequentially and grew by just 8% on a yoy basis. On the back of improvement in CD ratio and yield on advances, the banks reported NIM improved by 11bp qoq to 3.2%. On the asset-quality front, slippages ballooned to `1,821cr (annualized slippage ratio of 4.8%) from an average quarterly run rate of `640cr over the past 12 quarters. Management attributed a large part of the rise in slippages to the completion of the switchover to system-based NPA recognition platform. Absolute amounts of gross and net NPAs rose sharply by 37.1% qoq and 56.3% qoq, respectively. Provision coverage ratio including technical write-offs slipped sharply by 772bp qoq to 60.5%. Outlook and valuation: In our view, Union Bank of India is structurally among the more profitable and competitive PSU banks. We have a positive outlook on the bank due to its robust traction in CASA deposits and relatively fast-expanding branch network over the past few years. The asset quality stress seems to have been largely factored into the price, in our view. Going ahead, pick-up in recoveries from the technically slipped accounts is likely to cushion further stress. The stock is trading at reasonable valuations of 0.8x FY2013E P/ABV, well below its five-year median of 1.3x. Hence, we recommend an Accumulate rating with a target price of `238. Key financials
Y/E March (` cr) NII % chg Net profit % chg NIM (%) EPS (`) P/E (x) P/ABV (x) RoA (%) RoE (%)
Source: Company, Angel Research
Shareholding Pattern (%) Promoters MF / Banks / Indian Fls FII / NRIs / OCBs Indian Public / Others 57.1 14.7 11.9 16.3
3m (2.2) (23.3)
FY2010 4,192 9.9 2,075 20.2 2.4 41.1 5.4 1.3 1.2 26.2
FY2011 6,216 48.3 2,082 0.3 3.0 39.6 5.6 1.1 1.0 20.9
FY2012E 6,725 8.2 1,975 -5.1 2.7 37.5 5.9 1.0 0.8 16.6
FY2013E 7,621 13.3 2,308 16.9 2.6 43.8 5.1 0.8 0.8 17.0
Varun Varma 022 3935 7800 Ext: 6847 [email protected]
Vaibhav Agrawal
022 3935 7800 Ext: 6808 [email protected]
Shrinivas Bhutda
022 3935 7800 Ext: 6845 [email protected]
2QFY12 1QFY12 % chg (qoq) 2QFY11 % chg (yoy) 5,110 3,859 1,141 86 25 3,449 1,661 501 401 298 100 42 61 2,162 957 591 366 1,205 623 495 128 582 230 353 39.5 4,916 3,754 1,063 75 23 3,326 1,590 484 371 252 113 59 60 2,074 908 592 317 1,166 428 365 63 737 273 464 37.0 4.0 2.8 7.3 13.7 10.6 3.7 4.5 3.5 8.1 18.3 (11.5) (28.8) 1.6 4.2 5.4 (0.1) 15.5 3.4 45.4 35.6 101.6 (21.0) (15.8) (24.1) 244bp 3,952 2,776 985 56 135 2,416 1,536 510 379 286 131 45 48 2,045 915 592 323 1,131 599 629 (30) 532 228 303 42.9 29.3 39.0 15.8 52.9 (81.5) 42.7 8.2 (1.7) 5.9 4.2 (23.7) (6.7) 27.9 5.7 4.6 (0.1) 13.3 6.6 4.0 (21.3) (524.4) 9.5 0.6 16.2 (349)bp
Actual 1,661 501 2,162 957 1,205 623 582 230 353
Estimates 1,619 443 2,062 956 1,106 384 723 234 488
Var. (%) 2.6 13.1 4.9 0.1 8.9 62.4 (19.4) (2.0) (27.8)
2QFY12
1QFY12
% chg (qoq)
2QFY11 % chg (yoy) 18.6 10.0 548bp 8.0 (60)bp 1bp 68bp 97bp 119bp (14)bp (46)bp 45.7 70bp 102.4 86bp (955)bp 104bp (41)bp
147,284 145,567 195,572 199,178 75.3 62,754 32.1 12.5 8.5 9.3 6.3 3.2 44.3 5,136 3.5 2,959 2.0 60.5 4.8 0.8 73.1 62,748 31.5 12.9 8.8 9.1 6.2 3.1 43.8 3,745 2.6 1,893 1.3 68.2 2.0 0.6
1.2 124,142 (1.8) 177,780 223bp 0.0 58bp (34)bp (28)bp 15bp 9bp 11bp 47bp 37.1 92bp 56.3 72bp (772)bp 279bp 21bp 69.8 58,111 32.7 12.5 7.9 8.3 5.1 3.4 44.7 3,524 2.8 1,462 1.2 70.1 3.8 1.2
12.9 8.5
3.7
7.8 5.0
1.2
70.0
32.7
33.3
31.8
31.5
(0.5)
(3.6) (1.6)
(5.0)
(1.8)
68.0 66.0
32.1
30.0
Growth in non-interest income (3.5% qoq) was driven by strong 18.3% qoq growth in fee income to `298cr. Recoveries from written-off accounts fell sharply by 28.8% qoq to `42cr, while treasury income also declined by 11.5% qoq to `100cr. We expect core fee income to grow by 15.3% and 18.0% in FY2012 and FY2013, respectively.
2QFY12 1QFY12 298 100 42 61 501 401 252 113 59 60 484 371
% chg (qoq) 2QFY11 18.3 (11.5) (28.8) 1.7 3.5 8.1 286 131 45 48 510 379
3.8
2.6
1.4
2.0
4.8
2.8 1.2
2.7 1.2
2.4 1.2
2.6 1.3
3.5 2.0
0.3
55.0 50.0
2,869
2,993
3,016
3,038
3,051
44.7
40.2
62.5
43.8
2,000 1,800
44.3
2,800 2,700
2,200
15.0 -
0.6 -
Investment argument
CASA ratio expected to sustain at ~32% levels
We are relatively positive on the banks CASA growth outlook, owing to its large branch expansion in recent years compared to its peers. The bank has opened ~400 branches in the last two years, which according to us should aid the bank in maintaining its CASA ratio at ~32% levels. The bank is aiming to open another 225 branches during FY2012.
Earlier estimates FY2012 17.0 18.0 31.3 2.6 (1.3) (5.0) 12.0 1.8 69.5 FY2013 18.0 18.0 30.8 2.5 14.4 15.0 15.0 1.8 70.0
Revised estimates FY2012 17.0 18.0 31.3 2.7 (1.3) (5.0) 8.0 2.4 68.0 FY2013 18.0 18.0 30.8 2.6 14.4 15.0 15.0 2.5 70.0
0.8x
1.1x
1.4x
1.7x
2x
Reco. Buy Accumulate Neutral Buy Neutral Accumulate Buy Neutral Buy Accumulate Accumulate Neutral Reduce Buy Neutral Neutral Accumulate Neutral Neutral Neutral Accumulate Buy Accumulate Reduce Accumulate Accumulate Neutral
CMP (`) 1,152 411 483 933 23 315 145 118 739 324 50 461 105 415 76 114 205 98 819 305 962 1,907 109 71 222 74 56
Tgt. price (`) 1,414 444 497 1,102 24 347 169 119 871 362 55 463 99 489 74 115 220 96 820 314 1,085 2,267 123 66 238 82 53
Upside (%) 22.7 8.0 2.9 18.1 4.4 10.2 16.4 0.7 17.9 11.6 10.7 0.5 (5.1) 17.9 (2.4) 1.4 7.1 (1.4) 0.1 3.2 12.9 18.9 12.4 (7.0) 7.3 10.7 (4.9)
FY2013E P/ABV (x) 1.9 1.1 3.3 1.7 1.1 2.0 0.7 0.8 1.0 0.9 0.7 0.9 0.7 0.7 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.6 0.9 0.7 1.1 1.4 0.7 0.9 0.8 0.6 0.8
FY2013E Tgt. P/ABV (x) 2.3 1.2 3.4 2.0 1.2 2.2 0.8 0.8 1.2 1.0 0.7 0.9 0.7 0.8 0.6 0.8 0.9 0.6 0.9 0.7 1.3 1.7 0.8 0.8 0.9 0.7 0.7
FY2013E P/E (x) 10.1 8.4 16.8 13.5 6.8 10.5 4.1 5.3 5.6 5.4 4.3 5.4 5.2 4.2 3.7 5.4 5.3 3.9 5.7 5.3 6.0 7.3 4.8 4.3 5.1 4.4 6.8
FY2011-13E EPS CAGR (%) 17.7 19.5 30.5 24.1 15.6 19.9 8.9 (0.9) 10.6 15.2 38.1 (2.8) (14.6) 2.3 5.8 12.3 0.2 20.3 6.7 5.4 7.2 41.4 11.8 14.0 5.2 11.7 (3.2)
FY2013E RoA (%) 1.5 1.2 1.7 1.4 1.0 1.3 0.9 0.9 1.1 0.7 0.6 0.9 0.5 0.8 0.8 0.7 1.1 0.6 1.2 0.8 1.0 1.0 0.7 0.6 0.8 0.6 0.4
FY2013E RoE (%) 20.0 14.0 20.9 15.6 18.2 20.8 17.7 15.8 19.6 17.1 16.5 17.1 14.2 16.8 16.2 14.0 17.4 15.9 16.4 13.9 20.0 21.9 16.3 16.5 17.0 13.8 10.5
IndBk
Source: Company, Angel Research; Note:*Target multiples=SOTP Target Price/ABV (including subsidiaries), #Without adjusting for SASF
Income statement
Y/E March (` cr) NII - YoY Growth (%) Other Income - YoY Growth (%) Operating Income - YoY Growth (%) Operating Expenses - YoY Growth (%) Pre - Provision Profit - YoY Growth (%) Prov. & Cont. - YoY Growth (%) Profit Before Tax - YoY Growth (%) Prov. for Taxation - as a % of PBT PAT - YoY Growth (%) FY08 3,086 10.6 1,233 46.4 4,319 18.9 1,593 7.9 2,726 26.4 866 11.6 1,860 34.8 473 25.4 1,387 64.1 FY09 3,814 23.6 1,483 20.3 5,296 22.6 2,214 39.0 3,082 13.1 725 (16.2) 2,357 26.7 630 26.7 1,727 24.5 FY10 4,192 9.9 1,975 33.2 6,167 16.4 2,508 13.3 3,659 18.7 826 13.9 2,833 20.2 758 26.8 2,075 20.2 FY11 6,216 48.3 2,039 3.2 8,255 33.9 3,950 57.5 4,305 17.6 1,350 63.3 2,955 4.3 873 29.6 2,082 0.3 FY12E 6,725 8.2 2,013 (1.3) 8,737 5.8 3,928 (0.6) 4,809 11.7 1,886 39.7 2,924 (1.1) 949 32.4 1,975 (5.1) FY13E 7,621 13.3 2,302 14.4 9,923 13.6 4,517 15.0 5,406 12.4 1,989 5.5 3,417 16.9 1,109 32.4 2,308 16.9
Balance sheet
Y/E March (` cr) Share Capital Reserves & Surplus Deposits - Growth (%) Borrowings Tier 2 Capital Other Liab & Prov. Total Liabilities Cash balances Bank balances Investments Advances - Growth (%) Fixed Assets Other Assets Total Assets - Growth (%) FY08 505 6,843 103,859 21.9 4,760 3,750 4,356 124,073 9,455 643 33,822 74,348 19.2 2,201 3,604 124,073 21.1 FY09 505 8,235 138,703 33.5 3,885 4,890 4,757 160,976 8,992 6,993 42,997 96,534 29.8 2,335 3,124 160,976 29.7 FY10 505 9,919 170,040 22.6 3,125 6,090 5,483 195,162 12,468 3,308 54,404 119,315 23.6 2,305 3,361 195,162 21.2 FY11 635 12,129 202,461 19.1 7,126 6,190 7,443 235,984 17,610 2,488 58,399 150,986 26.5 2,293 4,208 235,984 20.9 FY12E 635 13,667 238,904 18.0 8,409 7,242 9,604 278,462 15,529 5,569 73,120 176,654 17.0 2,624 4,965 278,462 18.0 FY13E 635 15,446 281,907 18.0 9,922 8,546 12,128 328,585 18,324 6,572 86,375 208,451 18.0 3,004 5,859 328,585 18.0
Ratio analysis
Y/E March NIMs Cost to Income Ratio RoA RoE B/S ratios (%) CASA Ratio Credit/Deposit Ratio CAR - Tier I Asset Quality (%) Gross NPAs Net NPAs Slippages Loan Loss Prov./Avg. Assets Provision Coverage Per Share Data (`) EPS ABVPS DPS Valuation Ratios PER (x) P/ABVPS (x) Dividend Yield DuPont Analysis (%) NII (-) Prov. Exp. Adj. NII Treasury Int. Sens. Inc. Other Inc. Op. Inc. Opex PBT Taxes RoA before pref. div. Pref. div. RoA Leverage (x) RoE 2.7 0.8 2.0 0.3 2.2 0.8 3.0 1.4 1.6 0.4 1.2 1.2 21.9 26.8 2.7 0.5 2.2 0.2 2.4 0.8 3.2 1.6 1.7 0.4 1.2 1.2 22.5 27.2 2.4 0.5 1.9 0.3 2.2 0.8 3.0 1.4 1.6 0.4 1.2 1.2 22.5 26.2 2.9 0.6 2.3 0.2 2.5 0.7 3.2 1.8 1.4 0.4 1.0 0.0 1.0 21.7 20.9 2.6 0.7 1.9 0.1 2.0 0.7 2.7 1.5 1.1 0.4 0.8 0.0 0.8 21.7 16.6 2.5 0.7 1.9 0.1 1.9 0.7 2.6 1.5 1.1 0.4 0.8 0.0 0.8 22.5 17.0 8.1 2.1 1.8 6.5 1.6 2.3 5.4 1.3 2.5 5.6 1.1 3.6 5.9 1.0 3.2 5.1 0.8 3.8 27.5 107.6 4.0 34.2 139.7 5.0 41.1 173.6 5.5 39.6 203.3 8.0 37.5 230.0 7.0 43.8 264.8 8.5 2.2 0.8 1.2 0.5 63.7 2.0 0.3 1.6 0.4 83.1 2.2 0.8 1.8 0.4 74.0 2.4 1.2 2.4 0.6 67.6 3.4 1.4 2.4 0.6 68.0 4.0 1.5 2.5 0.6 70.0 34.9 71.6 12.5 7.5 30.1 69.6 11.2 6.9 31.7 70.2 11.7 7.4 31.8 74.6 12.0 8.1 31.3 73.9 12.6 8.2 30.8 73.9 11.4 7.3 FY08 2.8 36.9 1.2 26.8 FY09 2.8 41.8 1.2 27.2 FY10 2.4 40.7 1.2 26.2 FY11 3.0 47.8 1.0 20.9 FY12E 2.7 45.0 0.8 16.6 FY13E 2.6 45.5 0.8 17.0
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Ratings (Returns):
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