Financials | Fuelled

2 June To Fly
2024

India Strategy
Exit polls predict Modi 3.0!
2024 NDA set to come back with a landslide two-thirds majority

Key highlights from the exit polls of 2024

Loksabha 2024 elections concluded yesterday and Exit polls for the same were
Average of 2024 exit polls vs. announced subsequently. We present our key takeaways and analysis of the same in
past mandates this note
NDA (1) The exit polls predict Modi 3.0: NDA is forecasted to win ~370 seats (NDA had
UPA/INDIA Alliance won 353 seats in 2019) according to the average of all exit polls. Today’s Chanakya,
353
367 the only agency that predicted the 2014 seats correctly, has estimated 400 seats for
336
NDA. Meanwhile, the highly respected and eagerly awaited Axis MY India Exit Poll
(the agency that accurately predicted 2019 and also has a track record of correctly
predicting 64 out of 69 polls to date) has placed the NDA in the higher range with
142 400 seats (361-401).
92
59 More importantly, none of the 12 exit polls that we analyzed are predicting defeat
or even a slim majority for Mr. Modi. The lowest number of seats predicted for the
NDA is 316 by Dainik Bhaskar, with a range of 281-351. The dispersion of NDA seats
2014 (A)

2019 (A)

(Exit poll
2024

avg)

predicted by these 12 exit polls ranges from 316 seats on the lower end to 400 seats
on the higher end out of a total of 543 Lok Sabha seats.
Within the NDA, the BJP alone is expected to win ~325 seats vs. 303 that it won in
2019. If the actual election results are in line with the exit polls, it will be the first
time since the 1960s that an incumbent Prime Minister is returning to power for a
Kindly Refer our: Earnings review
third consecutive term with a comfortable majority. The last time this happened was
– 4QFY24: A broad-based beat!
in the 1960s when Mr. Jawaharlal Nehru (India’s first Prime Minister) won the Lok
Sabha Elections in 1962 (he had also won in 1952 and 1957). Equally, if the BJP wins
~325 seats as predicted in exit polls, this would be an unprecedented performance.
It would have surpassed its previous tally for the second time in a row after winning
282/303 seats in 2014/2019, highlighting the pro-incumbency trend.
(2) Vote Share: 40 vs. 20: The BJP is expected to inch closer to ~40% vote share on
its own (vs. 37.3% in 2019) and the NDA is likely to touch 47% vote share (vs. 45% in
2019). The prevailing narrative after the first two phases of elections, which saw a
reduced voter turnout, created nervousness and anxiety in equity markets in late
April and early May. However, this does not appear to be making any difference to
the eventual outcome, according to the exit polls.
(3) Co ngress is not expected to secure triple digits in seats for the third
consecutive time: The opposition I.N.D.I.A. alliance is projected to win ~140 seats.
Within the opposition grouping, Congress is likely to improve its tally from 52 in
2019 to win ~65 seats. Congress’ tally had slumped to 44 in 2014 (its lowest ever)
from 206 in 2009 and then marginally improved to 52 in 2019. Congress is also
expected to increase its vote share to ~21% in 2024 from 19% in 2019, but it will still
be close to half of the BJP’s expected vote share. Interestingly, even in states like
Telangana and Karnataka, where the Congress won the state assembly elections in
the last 12 months, it is not expected to see any material positive impact of those
victories on its performance in the parliamentary polls in the same states.

Gautam Duggad – Research Analyst ([email protected])

Research Analyst: Deven Mistry ([email protected]) / Aanshul Agarawal ([email protected])
Investors are advised to refer through important disclosures made at the last page of the Research Report.
Motilal Oswal research is available on www.motilaloswal.com/Institutional-Equities, Bloomberg, Thomson Reuters, Factset and S&P Capital.
 India Politics

(4) How does the math stack up for BJP? State-wise insights: The BJP is expected to
gain ~20-25 seats in states like Odisha, West Bengal, Telangana, and Andhra
Pradesh (in alliance with the TDP), which together constitute 105 seats in the
Parliament. It is expected to lose 7-8 seats in its traditional stronghold geographies
such as Rajasthan and Haryana (the BJP won 35 out of 35 seats in these two states
put together in 2019). It is also expected to more or less retain its tally in big states
like Maharashtra, Bihar, Karnataka, and Uttar Pradesh, which together contribute
196 out of 543 seats in the Parliament. The BJP was expected to shed some seats in
these four big states as per the narrative, which prevailed during the Lok Sabha
campaign. Aside from these states, the BJP is likely to sweep Gujarat (26/26 seats,
for the third time in a row), Madhya Pradesh (28-29/29 seats), Chhattisgarh (11/11
seats), Delhi (6-7/7), Himachal Pradesh (3-4/4), Uttarakhand (4-5/5), Assam (10-
11/12) and Jharkhand (10-12/14). Thus, as per the exit polls, at an overall aggregate
level, the BJP is losing very few seats in its traditional stronghold states in North and
West India, where it had scored significantly in 2019. Conversely, it is making decent
progress in the South and East, which more than compensates for the loss of seats
in Rajasthan and Haryana. We note that in 2019, the BJP won 224 seats out of 303
with a vote share of >50% and thus it has entered 2024 with a big gap vs. its
opponents. The BJP is also expected to open its account in the southern states like
Tamil Nadu and Kerala, where it scored a duck in 2019. The BJP and Prime Minister
Mr. Modi had prioritized these states and also invested significant political
bandwidth to raise the BJP’s performance here, with Mr. Modi alone making ~20
visits to TN.

(5) Regional political parties’ performance: One of the key takeaways of the exit
polls is the weakening of regional political parties in the I.N.D.I.A alliance that are
strong in their respective states. For example, Samajwadi Party/BSP in UP, TMC in
West Bengal, BJD in Odisha, BRS in Telangana (the BJP is gaining seats at the
expense of BRS here), RJD in Bihar, YSRCP in Andhra Pradesh and NCP (SP) in
Maharashtra are expected to see a reduction in their respective tallies or gain very
marginally. For some parties, e.g., SP and RJD, this will have significant ramifications
even for state-level politics, as this will now be the third consecutive Parliament
election where they would have performed poorly. From the national politics
perspective, this augurs well, in our view, as it results in enhanced political stability
without the pulls and pressures of coalition-politics that hamper policy-making.

Political implications of this verdict: If the BJP/NDA wins 325/370 seats on 4th June,
the political ramifications of this verdict will be far-reaching, we believe. It will once
again reaffirm the political supremacy of Brand Modi, who for the third consecutive
time, has not only won a comfortable majority but has also kept its key opponent,
i.e., the Congress party at a fraction of BJP’s strength in Parliament (Congress had
1.8x of BJP’s seats in 2009, but succumbed to just 16% of the BJP’s total tally in 2014
(44 vs. 282) which, after ten years, will now improve just a bit to ~20% (~65 vs.
~325), if Exit Poll predictions come true). It will result in further marginalization and
organizational weakness in opposition parties, which have seen significant attrition
and churning in their ranks in the last few years. The after-effects of this massive
pro-incumbency verdict may also have spill-over impacts in the next round of State
Assembly Elections i.e. Maharashtra and Haryana in Oct-Nov’24. Thirdly, it may also

2 June 2024 2
 India Politics

result in further shifts in equations in political alliances, e.g., in Maharashtra. The

magnitude of this victory will also boost the political capital of PM Modi/BJP in
pushing through tough legislative agenda such as Uniform Civil Code, One Nation
One Poll, Re-introduction of Farm Laws, etc. We note that, right after winning the
2019 elections in May’19, BJP had abrogated Article 370 from the Constitution in
Aug’19, one of the very important political steps and core agenda of the BJP since
the inception of the party. It had withdrawn the farm laws in the face of strident
opposition during 2020-21. It remains to be seen whether this fresh boost of
political capital will make the BJP reintroduce those farm laws in the same or
modified form.

Implications for the market/economy: The victory of PM Modi/BJP augurs well for
the economy and capital markets as it provides stability and continuity in policy-
making with a single-party majority government, which will be expected to continue
pushing its economic agenda. Equity markets displayed some anxiety and
nervousness recently around the impending political uncertainty, which resulted in a
sharp rise in volatility in Apr and May’24. With this clear verdict, markets will heave
a sigh of relief, in our view, and go back to fundamentals/business-as-usual mode.
Fundamentally, India is witnessing its own mini-Goldilocks moment with excellent
macros (GDP growth of 8.2% in FY24 on the back of ~7% growth in FY23, inflation at
~5%, both current account and fiscal deficits well within tolerance band, stable
currency, etc.), solid corporate earnings (Nifty ended FY24 with 25% earnings
growth and FY25/26 earnings are likely to post 14-15% CAGR), focus on
manufacturing, capex and infrastructure creation, and valuations at 20x one-year
forward earnings. This verdict and consequent political stability and continuity in
policy-making will act like an icing on the cake and keep India as the cynosure of all
eyes, in our view.

Our model portfolio remains aligned with the key domestic cyclical themes amid a
consistent backdrop of earnings growth. We remain OW on Financials,
Consumption, Industrials, and Real Estate. Industrials, Consumer Discretionary, Real
Estate, and PSU Banks are our key preferred investment themes.

TOP IDEAS: Large caps – ICICI Bank, SBI, L&T, Coal India, M&M, Adani Ports, ABB,
HPCL, and Hindalco; Midcaps: Indian Hotels, Godrej Properties, Global Health, KEI
Industries, PNB Housing, Cello World, and Kirloskar Oil.

Exhibit 1: All exit polls predict a stronger mandate for NDA

NDA INDIA Alliance Others
400

386

362

360

360

359

358
381

377

371

368
167

161

154
151
148

133

132
126
125
124
107

57

53
48
47
36

33

30
22
15
14

8
ABP C-voter

Rep. Bharat -
Aaj Tak - Axis my

Jan Ki Baat

News Nation
INDIA NEWS D-
India TV-CNX

Times Now-ETG
Chanakya-News 24

News18 Poll Hub

Rep.TV- PMARQ
MATRIZE
Dynamics
India

2 June 2024 3
 India Politics

BJP to top the half-way mark on its own again!

According to the exit polls announced later in the day (on 1st Jun’24), Prime Minister
(PM) Narendra Modi is expected to comfortably secure a third consecutive term
with a full majority. The exit polls underscore a massive pro-incumbency wave in
favor of PM Narendra Modi, who is once again defying the conventional wisdom of
anti-incumbency. On the contrary, he is anticipated to improve his tally, once again.
This result slightly exceeds the projections of opinion polls conducted prior to the
elections and surpasses the 2019 mandate of 353 seats.
The exit polls accord an average of ~370 seats to the NDA and ~140 seats to the
INDIA alliance, with the remaining seats going to other parties outside of these two
pre-poll alliances. The BJP is predicted to win an average of 325+ seats (vs. 303 seats
in 2019), while the Congress is expected to improve its tally to ~65 seats (from 52
seats in 2019).
The BJP is anticipated to inch closer to ~40% vote share on its own (vs. 37.3% in
2019), and the NDA is expected to touch 47% vote share (vs. 45% in 2019). The
Congress is also likely to improve its vote share to ~21% in 2024 from 19% in 2019,
but it will still be close to half of the BJP’s projected vote share.
Exhibit 2: Exit poll summary: All exit polls indicate a clear majority for NDA
AGENCY / Number of seats NDA INDIA Alliance Others
Chanakya-News 24 400 107 36
India TV-CNX 386 124 33
Aaj Tak - Axis My India 381 148 14
Jan Ki Baat 377 151 15
INDIA NEWS D-Dynamics 371 125 47
ABP C-voter 368 167 8
News18 Poll Hub 362 133 48
Rep. Bharat - MATRIZE 360 126 57
News Nation 360 161 22
Rep.TV- PMARQ 359 154 30
Times Now-ETG 358 132 53
Dainik Bhaskar 316 175 42
Average 367 142 34
Source: Media, MOFSL

Exhibit 3: NDA expects to see seat share gains in most of the dominant states
Total Seats Lok Sabha elections 2019 Average of exit polls 2024
States NDA UPA NDA INDIA Alliance
Uttar Pradesh 80 64 1 71 9
Maharashtra 48 41 5 30 18
West Bengal 42 18 2 21 19
Bihar 40 39 1 34 6
Madhya Pradesh 29 28 1 28 1
Karnataka 28 26 2 22 6
Gujarat 26 26 0 26 0
Rajasthan 25 25 0 23 2
Odisha 21 8 1 13 0
Assam 14 9 3 12 1
Jharkhand 14 12 2 10 2
Chhattisgarh 11 9 2 11 0
Haryana 10 10 0 7 3
Nct Of Delhi 7 7 0 6 1
Uttarakhand 5 5 0 5 0
Source: Media, MOFSL

2 June 2024 4
 India Politics

Is an optimistic target of 400+ achievable?

In the past, the opinion/exit polls failed to predict the accurate number of seats
 Past experience suggests that exit polls have failed to predict the national mood
accurately.
 During the last two general elections, the actual number of seats won turned
out higher for NDA and lower for the opposition than exit polls had predicted.
 The PM Narendra Modi had set a dream target of 400+ seats for NDA in the
2024 election. While the number looks highly optimistic to achieve, going by the
past performance, exit poll predictions, and ongoing popularity of Mr. Modi,
such an optimistic target or even a closer mark cannot be ruled out.
Exhibit 4: Exit and Opinion polls have failed to gauge the nation’s mood accurately in the past; the NDA won higher number
of seats than exit poll average in the past two terms
0 200 400 0 200 400

Avg. Exit Polls 129 Republic-C Voter 287

UPA

Actual Result 91 2019 ABP News/ Nielsen 267

Times Now 306
2019

Avg. Exit Polls 287

NDTV 300
NDA

Actual Result 353

Actual Result 353
Times Now- ORG 249

Avg. Exit Polls 104 India Today/ Cicero 272

CNN- IBN 276
UPA

Actual Result 58
ABP News/ Nielsen 281
2014

India TV/ C- Voter

2014

289
Avg. Exit Polls 285 NDTV 289
NDA

Actual Result 336 News 24/ Chanakya 340

Actual Result 336
CNN-IBN 175
Avg. Exit Polls 198
NDTV 177
UPA

Actual Result 262 Headline Today 180

2009

Times Now 183

2009

STAR News- AC Nielsen 197

Avg. Exit Polls 185
News X 199
NDA

Actual Result 159

Actual Result 159
NDTV- Indian Express 240

Avg. Exit Polls 181 Aaj Tak- ORG Marg 248

Zee- Taleem 249
UPA

Actual Result 222

2004

Star- C- Voter 269

2004

Sahara- DRS 270

Avg. Exit Polls 260 Outlook- MRDA 284
NDA

Actual Result 189 Actual Result 189

Source: MOFSL, Media

2 June 2024 5
 India Politics

Exhibit 5: Exit and Opinion polls have failed to gauge the nation’s mood accurately in the past
0 50 100 150 200 250 300 0 50 100 150 200

Republic-C Voter 128 Republic-C Voter 127

ABP News/ Nielsen 127 ABP News/ Nielsen 148
2019

2019
Times Now 132 Times Now 104
NDTV 127 NDTV 115
Actual Result 52 Actual Result 140
News 24- Chanakya 70 News 24- Chanakya 133
CNN- IBN 97 Times Now- ORG 146
ABP News- Nielsen 97 India TV/ C- Voter 153
India TV/ C- Voter 101 India Today/ Cicero 156
2014

2014
NDTV 103 NDTV 161
India Today/ Cicero 115 ABP News- Nielsen 165
Times Now- ORG 148 CNN- IBN 170
Actual Result 58 Actual Result 149
Headline Today 191 STAR News- AC Nielsen 136
News X 191 NDTV 150
CNN-IBN 195 News X 152
2009

2009

Times Now 198 Times Now 162

STAR News- AC Nielsen 199 Headline Today 172
NDTV 216 CNN-IBN 180
Actual Result 262 Actual Result 79
Outlook- MRDA 164 Star- C- Voter 92
Zee- Taleem 176 Outlook- MRDA 94
Sahara- DRS 176 Sahara- DRS 97
2004

2004

Star- C- Voter 180 Aaj Tak- ORG Marg 105

Aaj Tak- ORG Marg 190 NDTV- Indian Express 110
NDTV- Indian Express 197 Zee- Taleem 117
Actual Result 222 Actual Result 132

Source: MOFSL, Media

Investment in securities market are subject to market risks. Read all the related documents carefully before investing

2 June 2024 6
 India Politics

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2 June 2024 7
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of Interest Statement incorporated in this document is provided solely to enhance the transparency and should not be treated as endorsement of the views expressed in the report. This information is subject
to change without any prior notice. The Company reserves the right to make modifications and alternations to this statement as may be required from time to time without any prior approval. MOFSL, its
associates, their directors and the employees may from time to time, effect or have effected an own account transaction in, or deal as principal or agent in or for the securities mentioned in this document.
They may perform or seek to perform investment banking or other services for, or solicit investment banking or other business from, any company referred to in this report. Each of these entities functions as
a separate, distinct and independent of each other. The recipient should take this into account before interpreting the document. This report has been prepared on the basis of information that is already
available in publicly accessible media or developed through analysis of MOFSL. The views expressed are those of the analyst, and the Company may or may not subscribe to all the views expressed
therein. This document is being supplied to you solely for your information and may not be reproduced, redistributed or passed on, directly or indirectly, to any other person or published, copied, in whole or
in part, for any purpose. This report is not directed or intended for distribution to, or use by, any person or entity who is a citizen or resident of or located in any locality, state, country or other jurisdiction,
where such distribution, publication, availability or use would be contrary to law, regulation or which would subject MOFSL to any registration or licensing requirement within such jurisdiction. The securities
described herein may or may not be eligible for sale in all jurisdictions or to certain category of investors. Persons in whose possession this document may come are required to inform themselves of and to
observe such restriction. Neither the Firm, not its directors, employees, agents or representatives shall be liable for any damages whether direct or indirect, incidental, special or consequential including lost
revenue or lost profits that may arise from or in connection with the use of the information. The person accessing this information specifically agrees to exempt MOFSL or any of its affiliates or employees
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of its affiliates or employees free and harmless from all losses, costs, damages, expenses that may be suffered by the person accessing this information due to any errors and delays.
This report is meant for the clients of Motilal Oswal only.
Investment in securities market are subject to market risks. Read all the related documents carefully before investing.
Registration granted by SEBI and certification from NISM in no way guarantee performance of the intermediary or provide any assurance of returns to investors.
Registered Office Address: Motilal Oswal Tower, Rahimtullah Sayani Road, Opposite Parel ST Depot, Prabhadevi, Mumbai-400025; Tel No.: 022 - 71934200 / 71934263; www.motilaloswal.com.
Correspondence Address: Palm Spring Centre, 2nd Floor, Palm Court Complex, New Link Road, Malad (West), Mumbai- 400 064. Tel No: 022 71881000. Details of Compliance Officer: Neeraj Agarwal,
Email Id: [email protected], Contact No.:022-40548085.
Grievance Redressal Cell:
Contact Person Contact No. Email ID
Ms. Hemangi Date 022 40548000 / 022 67490600 [email protected]
Ms. Kumud Upadhyay 022 40548082 [email protected]
Mr. Ajay Menon 022 40548083 [email protected]
Registration details of group entities.: Motilal Oswal Financial Services Ltd. (MOFSL): INZ000158836 (BSE/NSE/MCX/NCDEX); CDSL and NSDL: IN-DP-16-2015; Research Analyst: INH000000412 . AMFI:
ARN .: 146822. IRDA Corporate Agent – CA0579. Motilal Oswal Financial Services Ltd. is a distributor of Mutual Funds, PMS, Fixed Deposit, Insurance, Bond, NCDs and IPO products.
Customer having any query/feedback/ clarification may write to [email protected]. In case of grievances for any of the services rendered by Motilal Oswal Financial Services Limited (MOFSL) write to
[email protected], for DP to [email protected].

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