Pre Election Insight Rajasthan
Pre Election Insight Rajasthan
Pre Election Insight Rajasthan
ISBN 938637050-6
: 978-93-86370-50-1
9 789386 370501
Pre-Election Insight Rajasthan : 2013 - 2014
ElectionsinIndia.com i
Editor & Director
Dr. R.K. Thukral
Research Editor
Dr. Shafeeq Rahman
ISBN : 978-93-86370-50-1
Price : Rs.5000/-
Printed in India
An Analysis of Assembly Constituencies
Election Results of
RAJASTHAN
for Assembly Election 2013 & Assembly
Segment of Parliamentary Election 2014
Pre-Election Insight Rajasthan : 2013 - 2014
iv ElectionsinIndia.com
Pre-Election Insight Rajasthan : 2013 - 2014
PREFACE
Rajasthan, popularly known as the Land of Maharajas, is located on the western region of India which
current legislative term is going to end in the year 2018. The forthcoming 2018 assembly elections of
Rajasthan would be probably a semi-final before the General election to be held in 2019. The unique
feature of the Rajasthan Assembly election is that no single party, i.e. neither the INC nor the BJP have a
second consecutive term during the past two decades. Even though ruling party BJP is facing a severe anti-
incumbency sentiment mainly due to agitation of Gurjars it is trying every possible effort to repeat its glorious
victory of 2014 parliamentary election in the upcoming 2018 Assembly election. The party has appealed its
workers in the state to work harder to make the state Congress-free. On the other hand, the young leadership
of the INC is a plus point for the party in the assembly election 2018. The INC declared that they have
already started preparing for the 2018 polls and will highlight the failure of the BJP government to address
the grievances of the general public. In the recently held local bodies by-election, the ruling party BJP and
the INC retained their positions in the closely fought battle garnering 19 and 14 seats, respectively. The
infighting within the saffron party is not helping it as polls are not far behind. However, by alternating labour
regulations, annulling obsolete laws and rationalising state policies, the current BJP government is leaving no
stone unturned to come to power for the next term as well. But it will be too early to predict what will be the
outcome of the upcoming assembly elections and Rajasthan has a history of alternative governments. But
the arch rivals BJP and INC both will ensure not to give each other an inch.
Most of the time it is observed that the demographic composition of a constituency comprising its population
by religious group, caste and literacy therein, reservation nature of the constituency and its location in rural
or urban areas affects the election results significantly. The importance of the election data can never be
neglected since every political party, pressure group, political analyst, political scholars and individual are
interested in the election results so that they can easily chalk out the weak and strong regions of the political
parties, candidate performance in their constituency, impact of demographic profiles, loss and gains of
legislative seats, vote difference and swings of votes among the contesting political parties.
This report has been made by keeping into consideration the usefulness of analysis of the past election
result with linking of socio-religious profile of AC arises in a wider prospective in the contemporary era for
the pre election readiness by the analysis of previous election results. In it thematic maps has been used
to put up a detail insight report of the state assembly election results and the assembly segments of the
parliamentary election since these maps are recognised as the most excellent method to present the sea
of information at a glance. The unique feature of this report is its notable attempt to analyse the variables of
the last assembly result 2013 and the assembly segment in Parliamentary election 2014 comparatively, so
that the readers can have a crystal clear picture of the changing situations of the Rajasthan elections in the
forthcoming Assembly election 2018.
This report of analysis is divided into nine chapters, leading from the basic features of Assembly constituencies,
demographic profile of the state, electoral features, election results and analysis of results, vote difference
and swings, state level time series comparison, top ten ranking of assembly constituencies and candidates
and the supporting datasheets.
This report is a reader oriented one and mainly aimed at serving as a pre-election reference book which
would be resourceful for politicians, policy makers, researchers, psephologists, media professionals and
academia that have interest in election politics of Indian states.
ElectionsinIndia.com v
Pre-Election Insight Rajasthan : 2013 - 2014
RR Turnout :-
YY Rajasthan voters turnout was 63.09% in 2014 Parliamentary Election, as compared with 75.04% in 2013 Assembly Election.
YY In 2014 Parliamentary Election, maximum voters turnout was 78.12% in Ghatol (ST) AC under Banswara (ST) PC and
Sangaria AC has 87.92% in 2013 Assembly Election.
YY In 2014 Parliamentary Election, minimum voters turnout was 45.22%in Sapotra (ST) AC under Karauli-Dholpur (SC) PC and
Sumerpur AC has 61.25% in 2013 Assembly Election.
YY As much as 61.39% of female and 64.62% of male voters in 2014 Parliamentary Election, as compared with 75.44% of
female and 74.67% of male voters in 2013 Assembly Election exercised their franchise.
YY Assembly Election 2013 have seen the second highest voters-turnout in the state since first assembly election with 75.04%
of the electorate casting vote. The previous highest was 87.93% recorded in 1967 Assembly Election.
YY In the previous Assembly Election held in 2013, voters turnout was 75.04%. In absolute numbers, out of the total 42994657
electors, 27027649 people cast their vote in 2014 Parliamentary Election.
RR Candidates :-
YY In 2014 Parliamentary Election, the total 320 candidates contested the election as compared with 2096 candidates in
2013 Assembly Election.
YY In 2014 Parliamentary Election, the maximum number of 22 candidates contested from Tonk-Sawai Madhopur PC while
maximum number of 32 candidates contested from Adarsh Nagar AC in 2013 Assembly Election.
YY In 2014 Parliamentary Election, the minimum number of 6 candidates contested from Banswara PC & Jhalawar-Baran PC
while the minimum number of 3 candidates contested from Sujangarh (SC) AC in 2013 Assembly Election.
RR Election Results :-
YY In 2014 Parliamentary Election, the maximum number of 159550 votes secured by Ramcharan Bohara (BJP) in Vidhyadhar
Nagar AC under Jaipur PC as compared with 114384 votes in 2013 Assembly Election by Vasundhra Raje (BJP) in
Jhalrapatan AC.
YY In 2014 Parliamentary Election, the minimum number of 31 votes secured by an Independent candidate Jetharam
Meghwal in Jodhpur AC under Jodhpur PC as compared with 42 votes secured by an Independent candidate Mohd.
Lala Qureshi in Kishan pole AC in 2013 Assembly Election.
YY In 2014 Parliamentary Election, the minimum number of 35298 votes secured by a winner Dr. Kirodi Lal (NPEP) in Dausa
AC under Dausa (ST) PC as compared with 34011votes in 2013 Assembly Election by Sushil Kanwar (BJP) in Masuda AC.
YY Vidhyadhar Nagar AC under Jaipur PC with 125109 votes (Winner 159550 votes, Runner-up 34441 votes) has the
maximum winning margin in 2014 Parliamentary Election as compared to Sanganer AC with 65350 votes (Winner-112465
votes, Runner-up- 47115 votes) in 2013 Assembly Election.
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Pre-Election Insight Rajasthan : 2013 - 2014
YY Nagaur AC under Nagaur PC with 86 votes (Winner 43954 votes, Runner-up 43868 votes) has the minimum winning
margin in 2014 Parliamentary Election as compared to Amber AC with 329 votes (Winner 51103 votes, Runner-up
50774 votes) in 2013 Assembly Election.
YY More than 3.2 lakh voters, (1.2%) choose NOTA in 2014 Parliamentary Election and in 43 Assembly constituencies, NOTA
were the third choice of voters, where as in 2013 Assembly Election 5.8 lakh voters, (1.9%) choose NOTA and in 51
Assembly constituencies, NOTA were the third choice of voters.
YY In 2014 Parliamentary Election, 25 candidate won among 80 candidates fielded by National parties as compared to 187
won among 672 candidates in 2013 Assembly Election.
YY In 2014 Parliamentary Election, not a single candidate won among 123 candidates fielded by state parties and un-
recognised registered parties as compared to 6 won among 666 candidates fielded by state parties and un-recognised
registered parties in 2013 Assembly Election.
YY In 2014 Parliamentary Election, not a single candidate won among 117 Independent candidates contested as compared
with 7 won among 758 Independent candidates contested in 2013 Assembly Election.
YY In 2014 Parliamentary Election, 320 candidates contested the Election and an average number of contestants per seat
were 13 as compared with 2096 candidates contested in Assembly Election 2013and an average contestants per seat
were 10 contestants.
RR Polarity of Parties :-
YY In 2013 Assembly Election, Single-party dominated ACs were 9, and all 9 seats won by BJP. While amongst 62 single-party
dominated ACs in 2014 Parliamentary Election, 60, 1 and 1 seats won by BJP, INC & IND respectively.
YY In 2013 Assembly Election, the numbers of Bi-polar ACs were 124 and major contest was between BJP-INC, out of which
111 & 11 seats won by BJP and INC respectively, while amongst 107 Bi-polar ACs in 2014 Parliamentary Election major
contest was between BJP-INC, out of which 98 and 9 seats won by BJP & INC respectively.
YY In 2013 Assembly Election, the numbers of Tri-polar ACs were 51and contest was among BJP-INC-NPEP on 23 seats, BJP-
INC-IND on 11 seats and BJP-INC-BSP on 7 seats out of which 31,9, 4 & 3 seats won by BJP, INC, IND & NPEP respectively,
while amongst 24 Tri-polar ACs in 2014 Parliamentary Election, major contest was among BJP-INC-IND out of which 17 &
4 seats won by BJP & IND respectively.
YY In 2013 Assembly Election, the numbers of Multi-polar ACs were 13, out of which 9 & 2 seats won by BJP & IND respectively,
while in 2014 Parliamentary Election, out of 4 Multi-polar ACs, 2 seats won by BJP & NPEP respectively.
RR Social Groups :-
YY By general-reserved break up, Scheduled Castes Reserved, Scheduled Tribes Reserved, Scheduled Castes dominated,
Scheduled Tribes dominated and General ACs are 34, 25, 54, 40 and 141 respectively.
YY Out of 34 SC reserved constituencies, seats won by NUZP fell from 1 in 2013 Assembly Election to 0 in 2014 Parliamentary
Election, while those won by BJP increased from 32 in 2013 Assembly Election to 33 in 2014 Parliamentary Election. NPEP
remained same on 1 seat in 2013 Assembly Election & in 2014 Parliamentary Election.
YY Out of 25 ST reserved constituencies, seats won by NPEP & IND fell from 2 &1 in 2013 Assembly Election to 1 & 0, respectively
in 2014 Parliamentary Election, while those won by BJP & INC increased from 18 & 4 in 2013 Assembly Election to 19 & 5
in 2014 Parliamentary Election respectively.
YY Out of 54 SC dominated constituencies, seats won by INC fell from 7 in 2013 Assembly Election to 3 in 2014 Parliamentary
Election, while those seats won by BJP & NPEP increased from 42 & 2 in 2013 Assembly Election to 47 & 4 in 2014
Parliamentary Election.
ElectionsinIndia.com vii
v
YY Out of 40 ST dominated constituencies, seats won by IND fell from 2 in 2013 Assembly Election to 0 in 2014 Parliamentary
Election respectively, while those seats won by INC & NPEP increased from 5 & 3 in 2013 Assembly Election to 6 & 4 in
2014 Parliamentary Election. BJP remained same on 30 seats in 2013 Assembly Election & in 2014 Parliamentary Election.
YY Out of 141 unreserved (general) constituencies, seats won by INC, IND & BSP fell from 17, 6 & 3 in 2013 Assembly Election
to 6, 5 & 0 in 2014 Parliamentary Election, while those won by BJP & NPEP increased from113 & 1 in 2013 Assembly
Election to 128 & 2 in 2014 Parliamentary Election.
RR Religious Groups :-
YY Hindu, Muslim and Sikh dominated ACs are 168, 27 and 5 respectively.
YY Out of 168 Hindu-dominated constituencies, seats won by INC, BSP & IND fell from 20, 5 & 3 in 2013 Assembly Election to
9, 3 & 0 in 2014 Parliamentary Election, while those won by BJP increased from 135 in 2013 Assembly Election to 152 in
2014 Parliamentary Election. NPEP remained same on 4 seats in 2013 Assembly Election & in 2014 Parliamentary Election.
YY Out of 27 Muslim-dominated constituencies, seats won by BJP fell from 24 in 2013 Assembly Election to 23 in 2014
Parliamentary Election, while those won by INC increased from 1 in 2013 Assembly Election to 2 in 2014 Parliamentary
Election. 2 seats won by IND remained same in 2013 Assembly Election & in 2014 Parliamentary Election.
YY Out of 5 Sikh-dominated constituencies, seats won by NUZP fell from 1 in 2013 Assembly Election to 0 in 2014 Parliamentary
Election, while those won by BJP increased from 4 in 2013 Assembly Election to 5 in 2014 Parliamentary Election.
RR Rural-urban break-up :-
YY Rural, Urban and Rural + Urban assembly ACs are 71, 19 and 110 respectively.
YY Out of 71 Rural constituencies, seats won by INC, IND & NPEP fell from 10, 3 & 3 in 2013 Assembly Election to 6, 2 &
1 in 2014 Parliamentary Election, while those won by BJP increased from 55 in 2013 Assembly Election to 62 in 2014
Parliamentary Election.
YY Out of 19 Urban constituencies, seats won by INC fell from 1 in 2013 Assembly Election to 0 in 2014 Parliamentary Election,
while those won by BJP increased from 18 in 2013 Assembly Election to 19 in 2014 Parliamentary Election.
YY Out of 110 Rural + Urban constituencies, seats won by INC, IND, BSP & NZUP fell from 10, 4, 3 & 2 in 2013 Assembly Election
to 5, 3, 0 & 0 in 2014 Parliamentary Election, while those won by BJP & NPEP increased from 90 & 1in 2013 Assembly
Election to 99 & 3 in 2014 Parliamentary Election.
06 Estimated Population 12
59-60 Winner and Runner-up among Winning Margin Less than 2000 Votes 70-71
61-62 Winner and Runner-up among Winning Margin Between 2000 to 5000 Votes 72-73
63-64 Winner and Runner-up among Winning Margin Between 5000 to 10000 Votes 74-75
65-66 Winner and Runner-up among Winning Margin Between 10000 to 20000 Votes 76-77
67-68 Winner and Runner-up among Winning Margin Above 20000 Votes 78-79
71-72 Winner and Runner-up among Winning Margin Less than 5% Votes 82-83
73-74 Winner and Runner-up among Winning Margin Between 5% to 10% Votes 84-85
75-76 Winner and Runner-up among Winning Margin Between 10% to 15% Votes 86-87
77-78 Winner and Runner-up among Winning Margin Between 15% to 25% Votes 88-89
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Pre-Election Insight Rajasthan : 2013 - 2014
79-80 Winner and Runner-up among Winning Margin Above 25% Votes 90-91
81-84 NOTA Votes are more than Winning Margin and Winner & Runner-up therein 92-95
95-96 Distribution of Winner & Runner-up Parties in Above Average Poll Percentage 106-107
97-98 Distribution of Winner & Runner-up Parties in Below Average Poll Percentage 108-109
99-100 Distribution of Winner & Runner-up Parties in Hindu Dominated ACs 110-111
101-102 Distribution of Winner & Runner-up Parties in Muslim Dominated ACs 112-113
103-104 Distribution of Winner & Runner-up Parties in Sikh Dominated ACs 114-115
105-106 Distribution of Winner & Runner-up Parties in Scheduled Castes (SC) Dominated ACs 116-117
107-108 Distribution of Winner & Runner-up Parties in Scheduled Castes (SC) Reserved ACs 118-119
109-110 Distribution of Winner & Runner-up Parties in Scheduled Tribes (ST) Dominated ACs 120-121
111-112 Distribution of Winner & Runner-up Parties in Scheduled Tribes (ST) Reserved ACs 122-123
113-114 Distribution of Winner & Runner-up Parties in Unreserved (General) ACs 124-125
119-120 Distribution of Winner & Runner-up Parties in Rural + Urban ACs 130-131
121-122 Vote Difference & Swing Impact of BJP against INC 134-135
123-124 Vote Difference & Swing Impact of BJP against BJP 136-137
125-126 Vote Difference & Swing Impact of INC against BJP 138-139
127-128 Vote Difference & Swing Impact of INC against INC 140-141
129-130 Vote Difference & Swing Impact of BSP against BSP 142-143
ElectionsinIndia.com xi
Pre-Election Insight Rajasthan : 2013 - 2014
Top Ten Assembly Constituencies with Highest and Lowest Poll Percentage 150
Top Ten Winner Candidates Secured Highest and Lowest Numbers of Votes 151
Top Ten Winner Candidates with Highest and Lowest Acceptance in Total Electors 152
Top Ten Candidate with Highest and Lowest Winning Vote Margin 153
I. Data Information
J. Annexure
Disclaimer 211
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A
Basic Features of Assembly
Constituencies
Pre-Election Insight Rajasthan : 2013 - 2014
2011
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Pre-Election Insight Rajasthan : 2013 - 2014
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Pre-Election Insight Rajasthan : 2013 - 2014
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Pre-Election Insight Rajasthan : 2013 - 2014
Map No. 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
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Pre-Election Insight Rajasthan : 2013 - 2014
ElectionsinIndia.com i
ISBN
ISBN 938637050-6
: 978-93-86370-50-1
9 789386 370501