PM Modi Wave Over


Modi Wave Over? Why Pollsters Are Scaling

Down Predictions for BJP
ADITYA MENON
UPDATED:
17.04.19 5 min read
149.9K ENGAGEMENT
  
Two of India’s most prominent polling agencies – CSDS and C-Voter –

appear to be scaling down their predictions for the BJP, after the first
phase of polling that took place on 11 April. And this gives us an
indication that the last set of opinion polls which predicted Prime
Minister Narendra Modi’s National Democratic Alliance either getting a
slender majority or stopping just short of the half-way mark, might
have ended up overestimating the BJP.
In an article published in The Asian Age on 13 April titled ‘Is It

Disadvantage BJP After First Phase of Polling?’ CSDS director Sanjay
Kumar makes the following observations:
• “Of the eight Lok Sabha seats in Uttar Pradesh that went to polls
in this state in the first round, the turnout went up only in
Ghaziabad and Gautam Buddh Nagar seats where the two Union
ministers VK Singh and Mahesh Sharma, are, respectively,
contesting.”
• “In the remaining six Lok Sabha seats, that have a sizable
proportion of Muslim voters, the turnout dropped compared to
the 2014 Lok Sabha elections.”
Also Read : Why Do Surveys Predict Fewer Seats For the BJP in 2019
Elections?
• “My reading is, the BJP may have an advantage only in these two
Lok Sabha seats and might be in trouble in the others.”
• “If that happens, the BJP would be down six in UP in the first
round. It had won all these eight Lok Sabha seats in 2014 when
elections were held there on 11 April.”
Kumar’s observations involve a both qualitative and quantitative

change compared to his earlier prediction for the BJP.
In another article in The Asian Age, written exactly a week before this
piece, Kumar had argued that it is “advantage BJP”. Within just a
week, “advantage BJP ” has changed into “disadvantage BJP” albeit
with a question mark at the end.
In terms of seats, let’s compare Kumar’s prediction to the CSDS’ last

survey.
In the survey, released just a few days before the first phase of polling
on 11 April, CSDS predicted that the BJP could win 32-40 out of Uttar
Pradesh’s 80 seats, that is around 40-50 percent of the seats in UP. But
in his article on 13 April, Kumar predicts that BJP could lose six out of
eight seats in the first phase. If this trend continues in the subsequent
phases, the BJP’s tally could end up with a tally of 20-25 seats.
Also Read : Is Congress Tacitly Helping Mahagathbandhan in Uttar

Pradesh?
The Quint asked Dr Sanjay Kumar whether he had indeed scaled down
his prediction for the BJP. “My earlier piece (on 6 April) was mostly
based on the data from the CSDS survey, in which I had said that BJP is
at an advantage. The observations in my second article (dated 13 April)
are based on the turnout figures for the first phase,” Kumar said.
“BJP supporters tend to be more enthusiastic than others about voting.

On the other hand, the Mahagathbandhan parties have fixed votes and
they rely purely on arithmetic not chemistry. So if the turnout has
fallen, it could mean that BJP isn’t doing as well as expected in Uttar
Pradesh.”
Dr Sanjay Kumar, Director, CSDS, to The Quint
 
Kumar sticks by his assessment that BJP could be in trouble in six out
of eight seats in the first phase in Uttar Pradesh.
Using the turnout data, Kumar extends his assessment of Uttar

Pradesh to Bihar and Maharashtra as well.
“The turnout didn’t increase in the seats in Bihar and Maharashtra

that voted in the first phase, which indicates that the BJP is facing a
challenge. In Bihar, the survey had predicted a one-sided sweep for the
BJP. But four seats that voted in the first phase, appear to be
witnessing a seat-to-seat fight,” he told The Quint.
Even in the case of the Vidarbha region in Maharashtra, Kumar says

that things may not have gone as well as expected for the BJP.
In its survey earlier this month, CSDS had predicted a near clean sweep
for the NDA in these two states – 28-34 seats out of 40 seats in Bihar
and 38-42 seats out of 48 in Maharashtra.
Interestingly, this is the first time in several years that the CSDS had
chosen to make seat predictions. Till now, CSDS gave vote share
predictions and other key trends in its rather comprehensive surveys
but always desisted from predicting seat-shares, which was done by
the Chennai Mathematical Institute.
Also Read : Balakot as ‘Kargil 2.0’ Re-Election Strategy? No, Modi Sir,
No
But it isn’t just the CSDS that is scaling down its prediction for the BJP.
Another prominent survey agency – CVoter – in its latest survey, has
said that the approval rating of the Narendra Modi government has
fallen by 19 points in a little over a month. According to the CVoter-
IANS election tracker, the Modi government’s approval rating peaked
after the Balakot strike on 26 February.
On 7 March, the Modi government’s approval rating was at 62.06

percent. Despite a minor decrease it remained in the 50s till 22
March. But on 12 April, a day after the first phase of polling, the Modi
government’s approval rating had fallen to 43.25 percent, a fall of
almost 19 percent in about five weeks.
 
According to CVoter, the Modi government’s, approval rating is now at

“pre-Pulwama” levels.
Modi's Popularity: Rise & Fall

According to CVoter-IANS tracker, Modi govt's approval rating peaked after Balakot air strike and it is back whe
thePulwama attack
65
62.06%
60
55 55.28%
50
45
43.2
40
35
32.4%
30
Jan 1 March 7 March 12 Apri
Modi's Approval Rating
Source: CVoter-IANS election tracker
 Share
BJP Could Perform Worse Than What Surveys
Predict
So based on Dr Sanjay Kumar’s analysis of the first phase turnout and

the C-Voter survey’s findings, a few observations can made:
• The Balakot strike had led to a surge in Modi’s popularity for

about a month. Naturally as the field work for most pre-poll
surveys was done in March, this surge was reflected in the last
set of surveys before the first phase of polling.
• But as the CVoter tracker shows, the Balakot surge has now
dissipated and as a result, the Modi factor isn’t working as well
as expected.
• Even in states where Modi is by far the most preferred PM

choice, such as Uttar Pradesh, Bihar and Maharashtra, his ability
to trump factors like alliance arithmetic, caste, candidate
selection and local factors appear to have greatly weakened.
• While in Uttar Pradesh, the alliance arithmetic seems to be

favouring the Mahagathbandhan, other key states like Bihar and
Maharashtra are witnessing what Dr Sanjay Kumar calls a “seat-
to-seat” battle. This is bad news for the BJP. It means that
despite a reasonably favourable approval rating and alliance
arithmetic in these two states, the Opposition could pull away a
few extra seats due to local or caste factors.
• The last set of surveys before polling predicted the NDA winning
260-280 seats. The final tally is likely to be much lower than
that, if the C-Voter tracker and Dr Sanjay Kumar’s observations
are any indication.
Also Read : Jobs versus security as election issue: IANS-CVOTER Poll

Survey-II
(The Quint is now available on Telegram and WhatsApp. For handpicked

stories every day, subscribe to our Telegram and WhatsApp channels)
First Published: 16.04.19
Follow our Elections section for more stories.
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

Modi Wave Over? Why Pollsters Are Scaling

Two of India’s most prominent polling agencies – CSDS and C-Voter –

In an article published in The Asian Age on 13 April titled ‘Is It

Kumar’s observations involve a both qualitative and quantitative

In terms of seats, let’s compare Kumar’s prediction to the CSDS’ last

Also Read : Is Congress Tacitly Helping Mahagathbandhan in Uttar

“BJP supporters tend to be more enthusiastic than others about voting.

Using the turnout data, Kumar extends his assessment of Uttar

“The turnout didn’t increase in the seats in Bihar and Maharashtra

Even in the case of the Vidarbha region in Maharashtra, Kumar says

On 7 March, the Modi government’s approval rating was at 62.06

According to CVoter, the Modi government’s, approval rating is now at

Modi's Popularity: Rise & Fall

Modi's Approval Rating

Source: CVoter-IANS election tracker

So based on Dr Sanjay Kumar’s analysis of the ﬁrst phase turnout and

• The Balakot strike had led to a surge in Modi’s popularity for

• Even in states where Modi is by far the most preferred PM

• While in Uttar Pradesh, the alliance arithmetic seems to be

Also Read : Jobs versus security as election issue: IANS-CVOTER Poll

(The Quint is now available on Telegram and WhatsApp. For handpicked

First Published: 16.04.19

Follow our Elections section for more stories.

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