SUGGESTED ENERGY TRANSITION POLICY

FOR
TRINIDAD AND TOBAGO
The Next 50 Years

June 30, 2021

Professor of Practice Andrew Jupiter

University of the West Indies
St. Augustine

Dr. Pedro van Meurs

Van Meurs Energy

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TABLE OF CONTENTS

INTRODUCTION.................................................................................................................... 1
INTERNATIONAL FRAMEWORK..................................................................................... 1
ENERGY RESOURCES OF TRINIDAD AND TOBAGO ................................................. 4
NATURAL GAS. ....................................................................................................................... 4
OIL AND CONDENSATES. ......................................................................................................... 5
SOLAR ENERGY. ...................................................................................................................... 6
WIND ENERGY. ........................................................................................................................ 6
BIOMASS. ................................................................................................................................ 6
RENEWABLES AND HYDROGEN. .............................................................................................. 6
OVERALL STRATEGY OF OIL AND GAS DEVELOPMENT ....................................... 7
NET-ZERO DATE FOR TRINIDAD AND TOBAGO ........................................................ 8
FISCAL AND OTHER TERMS FOR OIL AND GAS ........................................................ 8
FISCAL TERMS FOR OIL. .......................................................................................................... 9
OTHER TERMS. ...................................................................................................................... 10
OVERALL ECONOMIC FORECAST ............................................................................... 11
POPULATION GROWTH. ......................................................................................................... 11
ECONOMIC GROWTH. ............................................................................................................ 11
RESTRUCTURING OF THE POWER SECTOR ............................................................. 11
FUTURE ELECTRICITY DEMAND. ........................................................................................... 11
CURRENT SUBSIDIZED TARIFFS. ............................................................................................ 12
CURRENT FRAMEWORK AND RENEWABLES. ......................................................................... 12
CURRENT NATIONAL ELECTRICITY POLICY. ......................................................................... 13
IMPLEMENTING THE NATIONAL ELECTRICITY POLICY – STEP 1. ........................................... 13
IMPLEMENTING THE NATIONAL ELECTRICITY POLICY – STEP 2. ........................................... 13
IMPLEMENTING THE NATIONAL ELECTRICITY POLICY – STEP 3. ........................................... 14
RESTRUCTURING THE OTHER SECTORS .................................................................. 15
ELECTRIC VEHICLES (“EVS”). .............................................................................................. 15
ELECTRIC PLANES AND TAXIS. .............................................................................................. 15
FERRIES BASED ON RENEWABLES. ........................................................................................ 16
CEMENT. ............................................................................................................................... 16
GAS BASED INDUSTRIES AND LNG EXPORTS. ........................................................................ 16
REFINING............................................................................................................................... 16
CARBON TAXES .................................................................................................................. 17
POSSIBLE NEW INDUSTRIES .......................................................................................... 17
GREEN HYDROGEN................................................................................................................ 17
GREEN AMMONIA. ................................................................................................................ 18
GREEN METHANOL. .............................................................................................................. 18

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 CARBON CAPTURE AND STORAGE WITH DIRECT CO2 CAPTURE FROM THE AIR (“DIRECT AIR
CAPTURE”, “DAC”). ............................................................................................................. 19
GREEN SYNTHETIC FUELS. .................................................................................................... 19
ENERGY TRANSITION POLICIES FOR TRINIDAD AND TOBAGO ....................... 19
ENERGY TRANSITION TIMELINE................................................................................. 20
WHAT IF? .............................................................................................................................. 21
BIOGRAPHIES ..................................................................................................................... 22
PROFESSOR ANDREW JUPITER ............................................................................................... 22
DR. PEDRO VAN MEURS AND VAN MEURS ENERGY (VME) ................................................. 23

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INTRODUCTION
Trinidad and Tobago will be impacted significantly by international climate change policies. It is
expected that after COP26 various nations will intensify their efforts to achieve Net-Zero carbon
conditions by 2050 or 2060. Trinidad and Tobago is a major exporter of LNG, ammonia, methanol
and fertilizers. The economy will therefore be severely negatively affected by these worldwide
policies.
It is crucial that an optimal policy is defined and implemented to lead the country through the
energy transition over the next four decades. The well-being and wealth of the next generation
depends on the success of this policy.
Yet, so far such a policy has not been developed, although the country has committed to its
contribution under the Paris Agreement, while the Government has various established strategies
and plans with respect to oil and gas, renewable energy and power generation.
This document is meant to be an initial contribution to a discussion about this matter.
The authors have prepared this report at their own initiative and are not financed or sponsored by
any party. The reason for the report is for us to celebrate 50 years of our services in the petroleum
industry with a look at the next 50 years.

INTERNATIONAL FRAMEWORK
A wide variety of entities and companies have made forecasts of possible scenarios of the world
energy developments for the next twenty or thirty years. For the purpose of this report the
estimates of the International Energy Agency (“IEA”) will be used.
They published recently a remarkable report called “Net-Zero by 2050 – A Roadmap for the Global
Energy Sector” (the “Roadmap”)i. This report describes a scenario how the world can reach a
condition of Net-Zero carbon emissions by 2050. “Net-Zero” means that whatever emissions
would still take place in 2050 would be offset by carbon capture and storage (“CCS”) or other
methods.
This scenario is radically different from the usual IEA Stated Policies Scenario (“STEPS”) ii, which
is the forecast based on the current policies of the various countries. Under STEPS the world emits
34 Gigatons of CO2 in 2020 and this will slightly grow to 36 Gigatons by 2050. Based on this
scenario the global temperature rise will be 2.7 degrees Celsius by 2100.
Under the STEPS scenario oil demand will increase from 98 million barrels per day (“mb/d”) in
2019 to about 104 mb/d in 2030 and thereafter stabilize at this level. Gas demand will increase
from 137.7 Trillion cubic feet (“Tcf”) per year in 2020 to 201 Tcf by 2050.

1
Total CO2 emissions will not increase strongly because at the same time coal demand will decline
significantly and renewable energy will become a major contributor to satisfying energy demand.
Under the Roadmap the oil demand will decline to about 24 mb/d, but about two/thirds of this will
be for non-energy use. Gas demand will decline to about 60 Tcf, but about three/quarters of this
will be subject to CCS. The remaining emissions will be offset by other means, such as the
generation of electricity based on biomass with CCS.
It is impossible to estimate how successful the world will be in achieving the goals of the Roadmap.
It should be noted that nations representing 70% of the world GDP have committed to achieving
Net-Zero Carbon by 2050 or 2060. However, there is considerable skepticism whether these
commitments can be achieved. Russia, India, Indonesia, Saudi Arabia, and most developing
countries have made no such commitments.
For the purposes of setting a transition policy it is therefore assumed that world will achieve the
Net-Zero objective about halfway between STEPS and the Roadmap. This means in 2050 the
world demand for oil will be 64 mb/d and for gas 130 Tcf per year.
In the case of oil, it can be assumed that low-cost OPEC producers will be able to largely maintain
their current production, which means OPEC may produce as much as 30 mb/d. The decline in
production will therefore mostly come from non-OPEC countries.
Yet, it is precisely the non-OPEC countries which have been rather active in promoting exploration
and production with licensing rounds during 2020 and 2021 (such as the UK, Norway, and
Suriname). Non-OPEC countries want to benefit from the full development of their petroleum
potential before it is too late to do so. Therefore, active promotion of acreage can be expected to
continue. World over-supply conditions will be the result. This in turn will result in downward
pressure on price. The oil price in 2050 can be expected to be in the range of $ 30 to $ 40 per
barrel (in constant 2021$).
The intense competition for investment among non-OPEC countries during the next three decades
will result in a lowering of the government take. The world average is 60% today. This can be
expected to drop to 50% or even 40% by 2050.
Russia and Qatar intend to strongly enter the LNG markets in the coming decade. This means LNG
markets will remain highly competitive under this scenario.
There are other important international trends that will significantly impact on the energy transition
in Trinidad and Tobago.
The most important trend is that the cost of producing solar and wind energy is rapidly declining.
This is due to advances in technology and scale up of industrial production.

The lowest cost solar Power Purchase Agreement (“PPA”) this year was in Saudi Arabia for 1.04
cents/kWhiii. Depending on climate conditions solar power can be expected to be supplied for

2
PPA’s in the range of 0.8 – 6 cents/KWh by 2030 (2021$), on average about 2.5 cents/kWh and
these costs will decline further towards 2050.
This means that solar energy can now be supplied at costs that are well below the costs of the most
efficient new combined cycle natural gas plants (assuming a relatively low gas price).
The lowest onshore wind PPA in the world came in at 1.43 cents/kWh recently in Texas. By 2030
onshore wind can be expected to be supplied at 1 – 6 cents per kWh in 2030 (2021$), on average
about 3.5 cents/kWh. Offshore wind can be expected at 4 – 10 cents/kWh, on average 5
cents/kWh. These costs can again be expected to reduce further towards 2050.
Another important trend is the electrification of the transport sector. It is expected that by 2025
electric vehicles (“EVs”) will be cheaper to buy, operate and maintain than cars based on internal
combustion engines (“ICE”). Many car manufacturers are therefore moving into EVs. General
Motors will only produce EVs after 2035 iv and Honda after 2040.
The Roadmap assumes only EVs after 2035. However, again it is likely that some ICE cars will
continue to be produced after that. Trinidad and Tobago depends for its vehicles on imports, so it
will be difficult to purchase ICE cars after 2040. Therefore, it can be assumed that by 2050 at least
70% of the vehicles in Trinidad and Tobago will be EVs, although it is beneficial to have a higher
percentage as will be discussed below. This in turn will require a significant expansion of the
electricity generation capacity.
It is important to note that the world is engaged in massive R&D related to energy transition.
Breakthroughs in technologies could dramatically change the future outlook. Inventions that bring
the cost of green hydrogen (“green” means produced entirely based on renewable resources) below
$ 1 per kg, would dramatically change world gas markets. Similarly, low-cost green ammonia
discoveries would change the ammonia markets.
A recent example of such R&D v is the discovery of zero-carbon ammonia synthesis made by
Australian researchers of the UNSW School of Chemical Engineering and Sydney University.
This synthesis does not require fossil fuels, does not emit CO2 and can be produced at room
temperature on a small scale. This would permit farmers to produce their own fertilizers, if this
scientific discovery would translate in commercial operations.
The fact that the European Union and other countries will undertake major efforts at achieving
Net-Zero carbon conditions, will be an incentive to avoid “carbon leakage”; which is importing
energy intensive goods from other countries that have more relaxed policies. The EU is working
on a carbon border adjustment mechanism (“CBAM”)vi whereby duties will be charged on such
products. If such policies become widespread among OECD and other countries the export of gas-
based industry products from Trinidad and Tobago may be negatively affected.
Trinidad and Tobago may be faced in the next ten years with a situation whereby most of their
gas-based export products will be taxed on imports under the CBAM concept by a variety of
countries, severely hampering further exports.

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Other political developments are also important. It is assumed that relations with Venezuela will
normalize and that joint development of transborder gas fields will be possible. It is also assumed
that Iran will rejoin normal international relations and thereby become an important oil and LNG
exporter.

ENERGY RESOURCES OF TRINIDAD AND TOBAGO

Trinidad and Tobago is rich in energy resources. However, the ultimate recoverable potential of
oil and gas is subject to some considerable uncertainty. Following is a discussion of the various
resources.
Natural Gas. As of 2020 the Ryder Scott natural gas reserves audit reported proved gas reserves
at 10.7 Tcf. Some additional possible fields are scheduled to come on stream during the next few
years, which would increase the reserves. It is assumed that by 2025 the cross-border fields
Loran/Manatee with Venezuela on the Trinidad side can be developed by Shell as the operator.
From then onwards a low estimate is that production would decline by about 10% per year, down
to about 200 MMcf/day by 2050 as displayed in Chart 1. The total cumulative production over
the thirty years from 2021 to 2050 would be 14.1 Tcf.
A high estimate is that deep water gas production from BHP operated fields or new fields as a
result of the bid round, can be brought on stream by about 2030. This could be associated or non-
associated gas from various fields at a production level of about 500 MMcf/day in addition to the
low estimate. This would result in about 700 MMcf/day by 2050 and a total cumulative production
over the thirty years of about 18.3 Tcf.
It should be noted that the development of most non-associated gas fields in deep water may be
uneconomic due to possible low gas prices beyond 2030.

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 Chart 1. Gas Production Scenarios
5000
4500
4000
3500
MMcft/day

3000
2500 Low
2000 High
1500
1000
500
0

2026

2034

2042
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
2014
2016
2018
2020
2022
2024

2028
2030
2032

2036
2038
2040

2044
2046
2048
2050
Oil and Condensates. MEEI announced previously that based on an audit of Netherlands Sewell
and Associates, the following crude oil reserves were identified: Proved – 220 million barrels,
Probable – 100 million barrels and Possible – 135 million barrels.
Using the appropriate risk factors for probable and possible reserves, this would result in an
ongoing declining production of about 6.5% per year. Production in the year 2050 would be 7,500
bopd and the cumulative production over 30 years would be 257 million barrels.
In addition, 3.2 billion barrels of un-risked prospective resources were identified, largely in deep
water.
At this time there is still considerable uncertainty about possible deep-water developments, due to
the fact that exploratory drilling has been limited and so far, no major deep-water discoveries have
been made. The recent dry hole of the BHP Broadside well indicates that the risk factor for the
prospective resource estimate is high.
Chart 2 shows the deep-water production estimation based on a 1:4 success rate. It would add by
2030 about 100,000 bopd from several fields, which would start to decline towards 2050 resulting
in a total production in the country of 55,000 bopd; about the same level as today. Cumulative oil
production during the thirty years would be 880 million barrels. This is probably an optimistic
scenario and there is a possibility that only dry wells will be drilled in the deep-water blocks.
However, some further small shallow water oil discoveries may also add some modest production
after 2030 or earlier.

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 Chart 2. Oil Production Scenarios
160,000

140,000
Barrels of Oil per Day

120,000

100,000

80,000 Low
60,000 High

40,000

20,000

0
2010

2036
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008

2012
2014
2016
2018
2020
2022
2024
2026
2028
2030
2032
2034

2038
2040
2042
2044
2046
2048
2050
Solar energy. The solar energy irradiance in Trinidad and Tobago is attractive. The Global
Horizontal Irradiance (“GHI”) is measured as the solar capacity in kWh per year on a square meter.
The typical GHI for most of Trinidad is about 2000 kWh. The SW part of Tobago has 2200 kWh
and the East and South Coast of Trinidad have about 2100 kWh.
This compares to 2700 kWh in the best areas in the world, such as Northern Chile, but is far better
than Germany, for instance, with 1100 kWh (Yet, Berlin requires large buildings to have solar
panel rooftops).
Furthermore, Trinidad and Tobago has a climate variation with drier months early in the year, but
compared to other areas in the world the solar irradiance is rather evenly spread out over the year.
Wind energy. The wind energy capacity is measured as the wind speed in meters per second
(m/s). Onshore most of Trinidad the wind speed is a relatively poor 4 – 5 meters per second. Some
relatively small areas have wind speeds over 7 m/s, such as the NE tip of Tobago and some isolated
locations on the North Coast of Trinidad.
Offshore winds are generally acceptable over 7 m/s off the North and South Coast of Trinidad and
surrounding Tobago. The shallow waters off the South Coast of Trinidad may offer some low-
cost opportunities.
The best areas in the world, such as the North Sea or offshore Aruba have 10 m/s.
Biomass. Trinidad and Tobago no longer has large scale agricultural enterprises that produce
sugar or other products for export. Nor is there a large forestry industry. Therefore, there does
not seem to be a significant opportunity for electricity production based on biomass.
Renewables and Hydrogen. From a world competitive point of view, Trinidad and Tobago will
be able to produce solar and offshore wind energy at reasonable average costs and for any amount
required for local use, providing a sound basis for energy transition.

6
The country will not be able to compete with some ultra-low-cost renewable countries such as
Australia, Oman, Mauritania, or Chilevii for the large-scale production of hydrogen for exports.
However, some small-scale hydrogen operations for local use and small-scale exports may become
economic.

OVERALL STRATEGY OF OIL AND GAS DEVELOPMENT

The Roadmap indicates that it is no longer necessary for Governments to offer new acreage for oil
and gas exploration, since under the Net-Zero – 2050 scenario, all world oil and gas resources that
are required have already been found. Some nations, such as France, Denmark and New Zealand
are following this policy.
However, the most oil and gas producing nations are doing the exact opposite.
During 2020 and 2021 bid rounds were held or new contracts were signed in Norway, the UK,
Austria, Australia (Queensland), various states and the federal government of the United States,
emirates of the UAE, Russia, China, Timor Leste, Malaysia, Argentina, Brazil, Colombia,
Suriname, Uruguay, Syria, Oman, Liberia, Botswana, and Zimbabwe. Nigeria is about to pass
their Petroleum Industry Bill with precisely the objective to accelerate oil and gas production.
Colombia just launched their 2021 bid round.
In fact, there is a sense that it is important to accelerate oil and gas exploration since oil and gas
production may soon no longer be viable. Acceleration will ensure that the nation benefits to the
maximum extent possible from the remaining oil and gas potential before it is too late.
Pavel Zavalny, the head of the energy committee of the Russian Parliament, crystallized this policy
as followsviii: “Everything that can be produced should be produced as long as there is still demand
to sell it”.
The IEA report recognizes that their recommendations will have devastating consequences for oil
and gas producer economies. The IEA report ix concludes on page 176 that producer economies
“are likely to struggle to finance essential spending at current levels. This could have knock-on
effects for social stability, …”.
In other words, it is recognized that a worldwide strategy to combat climate change will impact
very negatively on nations such as Trinidad and Tobago. It therefore seems fully justified that
these nations focus primarily on saving their nations first before trying to save the world.
Nevertheless, where energy transition results in economic benefits, such benefits should be fully
realized. Also, the overall transition process should be based on placing the nation in the strongest
possible economic position once the world achieves Net-Zero Carbon conditions.
This is part of the framework for the following discussion.

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NET-ZERO DATE FOR TRINIDAD AND TOBAGO
Given the fact that the oil and gas resources of Trinidad and Tobago can be expected to be largely
exhausted by 2060, it would not be a heroic policy to join China and Brazil in targeting the year
2060 as the year in which Trinidad and Tobago hopes to achieve Net-Zero Carbon.
Even if Trinidad and Tobago manage to keep their gas-based industries going based on imported
natural gas from Guyana or Venezuela, the world can be expected to buy only “green” or “blue”
ammonia and methanol at that time (“blue” means the production of ammonia with the carbon
capture and storage of CO2).
Therefore, it can be recommended that Trinidad and Tobago officially adopt 2060 as the Net-Zero
target date. This would be a beneficial matter to establish during the next COP26 meeting.
This definition would also give substantial guidance to the overall transition policies that Trinidad
and Tobago might follow.

FISCAL AND OTHER TERMS FOR OIL AND GAS

Fiscal Terms for Natural Gas. The dramatic long-term future decline of anticipated natural gas
production and the huge importance of the gas-based industries for Trinidad and Tobago make it
imperative to promote the production of natural gas relentlessly.
Trinidad and Tobago has established a minimum royalty of 12.5%, which needs to be paid under
any circumstance. This royalty is a payment that is deducted for determining the profit oil or profit
gas share under PSCs.
The proposed overall cost recovery limit of 80% for the deep water bid round is attractive from an
international perspective. It can be recommended that this 80% is determined based on the total
production. This means that the profit share remaining after the deduction of the royalty and
maximum costs would be 7.5%. This would be subject to the sharing of the profit gas and profit
oil. Of course, as costs are being recovered and become less than 80%, the profit share goes up
correspondingly.
For the anticipated deep water competitive bid round, it can be recommended that the profit gas
share be fixed at 15%; which means it should not be subject to production level and price variation.
It should not be a bid variable. A maximum opportunity should be created to make deep water gas
economic, even if this may result in some exceptional cases in a “gas windfall profit”. The focus
should be on promoting gas production.
Such a level of profit gas would create an overall government take of about 31% under conditions
of a 33.3% cost/price ratio (for instance at costs of $ 1 per Mcf and a gas price of $ 3 per Mcf).
Chart 3 shows the typical level of government take for a cost/price ratio of 33.3% for oil. Gas
would usually have a somewhat lower government take than oil, in particular gas that is used
domestically. Therefore, this level is reasonable.

8
Chart 3 shows the typical undiscounted and un-risked government income take on a real basis for
oil of these countries. The government take is ranging from 27% to 45% for typical deep-water
terms (government participation is not included in this chart, only direct government income).
These countries include the United States, the UK, Canada (Nova Scotia), Argentina, Brazil
(Concession Terms), Colombia, India, Israel, Romania, Russia (Black Sea), Turkey, Ghana, Cote
d’Ivoire, Sierra Leone, Liberia, and South Africa. Of course, there are countries with a higher
government take (such as Suriname, Egypt, Norway, or Malaysia), but there is no evidence that
the offshore geology of Trinidad and Tobago is better than or equal to such countries.
Even under this system it is likely that in many cases non-associated gas fields will not be
economic due to low gas prices.

Chart 3. Government Income Take @0% (real)

100 million barrel field, $ 60/bbl price, $ 20/bbl costs
India - Recent Gross Split Terms)
USA- Gulf of Mexico
Sierra Leone
Papua New Guinea
Peru (Linear Royalty)
Colombia (0ver 1000 m, Low API)
Brazil (Concession Terms, 17th Round)
Ghana (Tano)
Israel
Canada - Nova Scotia
Liberia (Blocks 8,9)
United Kingdom
Argentina
Russia (Black Sea)
Turkey
USA- Outer Continental Shelf
Cote d'Ivoire (BP,Kosmos)
Proposed T&T for Gas
Italy
Romania
South Africa
Ireland
0.0% 10.0% 20.0% 30.0% 40.0% 50.0%

Fiscal Terms for Oil. As indicated earlier, the main option for the country to increase oil
production are possible attractive oil discoveries in deep water. Given the international framework
discussed above, it is indeed essential to have the planned deep water competitive bid round as
soon as possible.
It is important to target fiscal crude oil terms correctly because significant licensing activity can
be expected from other countries, and acreage is available that in some cases may be more
attractive than deep water offshore Trinidad and Tobago.

9
The only model PSC available is so far the 2014 model on the MEEI website. It seems that a
different model may be used for the bid round. The fiscal information provided on the official
PowerPoint is limited and consist only of one slide (Slide 36).
However, based on this information a number of comments can be made.
In general, the exploration phase should not be burdened with excessive fiscal charges. Given the
possible high geological risk, such charges affect the overall fully risked economics negatively.
The concept of a signature bonus is very negative and therefore this concept should not be applied.
During the bid process, the focus should be on the work program and the profit oil share.
Article 21.1 of the 2014 model PSC contains a wide variety of charges during the exploration
period. Many of these charges should be eliminated.
The scheme of the 2014 model of making the profit oil share to government a function of the level
of production and price can be recommended, since it ensures that government receives a fair share
under favorable circumstances. However, the scheme needs to be adjusted to provide increased
protection for investors under the circumstances to be expected during the next thirty years. This
means, there should be more emphasis to permit companies to survive under low prices and high
costs.
If pre-bid minimum terms are being set for the profit oil share, it should preferably not be higher
than 20%, creating a competitive government take of about 39% (compared with Chart 3).
Companies can then bid upwards for the different price and production classes.
It is indicated in the MEEI PowerPoint, that the PSC terms override other fiscal provisions in case
of conflict. This is important since MEEI needs to ensure the payment of taxes out of the profit
share to Government. Under a government take of 34% or 39%, the profit share to Government
will not be sufficient to pay these taxes.
A recommendation is for the government to introduce “leaky ring fences” in the deep-water blocks
bid. This would be a very significant incentive. This means that as soon as a discovery is slated
for production, further exploration in different blocks can be recovered for production sharing
purposes from the revenues of such discovery. This would strongly encourage follow-up
exploration. This means that the profit oil and profit gas shares must be determined per company,
so companies involved in different blocks are being treated in a comparable manner.
Other terms. The duration proposed for the PSC is problematical. After a commercial discovery
the PSC can be extended for a period of 25 years from the effective date. This means PSCs that
would start in 2022 would terminate in 2047.
In case there is still commercial production ongoing in the PSC, it will not be possible to have an
attractive bid round in 2047 for the extension of the PSC, with the world going to Net-Zero by
2050. Nor are these favorable conditions for renegotiation of the PSC. It can therefore be
suggested that instead an automatic 10-year renewal be granted, to properly complete the related
production. If required, a further renewal can be granted afterwards, taking into consideration the
target of Net-Zero by 2060.

10
OVERALL ECONOMIC FORECAST
Population Growth. The current population of Trinidad and Tobago is about 1.39 million people.
The fertility rate is a relatively low 1.70 x. As a result, the population is not expected to grow
strongly in the next decade and may reach 1.45 million by 2035. After that, it can be expected that
the population will start to decline. By 2050 the population level may be about the same as today,
but the average age of the population will be older and may drop to 1.2 million by 2070.
Economic Growth. The IMF estimates xi that the GDP per capita (PPP) by 2021 of Trinidad and
Tobago will be US $ 25,883. Given the sharp decline of the expected natural gas production and
the related government revenues, it will be difficult to achieve significant economic growth per
capita over the next 30 years. Economic growth may rekindle after the petroleum production
becomes minimal and production decline has no longer a negative effect on yearly economic
growth.
The level of economic growth depends to a large degree on government policies.
If successive governments would let the economy slide with the decline of the oil and gas
production, the GDP per capita (PPP) in 2050 may decline to $ 18,000 and due to the weak position
of the economy at that time recover to $ 22,000 by 2070. This means the public of Trinidad and
Tobago would be less wealthy in 2070 than they are today and over time there would have been a
significant loss of jobs.
If, on the other hand, successive governments would be successful in attracting large scale
investment to restructure the economy during energy transition, the GDP per capita (PPP) may
continue to grow and reach $ 35,000 by 2050 and $ 56,000 by 2070. At that time the public of
Trinidad and Tobago would be richer than in most European nations today and a large number of
high-quality jobs would have been created.
The implementation of successful energy transition policies is therefore of huge importance for
the next generation(s).

RESTRUCTURING OF THE POWER SECTOR

Key to any energy transition strategy is the restructuring of the power sector.
Future Electricity Demand. The Trinidad & Tobago Electricity Commission (“T&TEC”)
oversees coordination and distribution of electricity. The power is produced by Independent
Power Producers (“IPPs”) with separate plants of various sizes.
The total installed capacity is 2608 MW. However, actual peak power use is only about 1400
MW. Total electricity consumption is 10,300 GWh (10.3 billion kWh).
Essentially 100% of the population has access to electricity.

11
The growth of the electricity demand can be expected to be modest. Even a growth of 35% in
GDP over the next thirty years would require less growth of electricity demand, probably about
20%. However, the introduction of EVs would result in a significant increase in electricity use.
In total the peak power requirements in 2050 can be predicted to be below the capacity that is
already installed. Therefore, new capacity will not be required, other than for possible replacement
of plants that need to be abandoned for operational purposes.
Current Subsidized Tariffs. The tariffs for electricity vary depending on the type of customer.
Rates were established in 2009 and have not been adjusted since. Based on current US$ exchange
rates, the residential tariff per kWh is determined based on the level of consumption about every
60 days. It is $ 0.039 for the first 400 kWh, $ 0.048 per kWh for the next 600 kWh and over this
level $ 0.056. The commercial rate is $ 0.062 for any amount. These tariffs are in addition to
certain fixed charges.
The industrial tariffs are based on a combination of capacity charges and usage charges for a
variety of industrial users depending on size.
The electricity tariffs are well below typical international rates based on fully commercial
conditions.
All electricity generation is based on natural gas and the gas price to utilities is subsidized about
$ 1/MMBtu. This is significantly below the gas prices charged to other parties and international
market conditions.
Trinidad and Tobago has so far been following the policies of most other oil and/or gas exporting
countries of subsidizing energy prices to their populations. This is indeed a rather effective policy
of sharing the petroleum wealth with the population. These policies are immensely popular and
therefore once such policies are established it is politically extremely difficult to abandon them.
The problem with these policies is that they result in wasteful energy use.
The Government of Trinidad and Tobago is aware of these issues. The Regulated Industries
Commission (“RIC”) is deliberating on increases in electric tariffs and most likely will determine
such in 2021/2022.
Current Framework and Renewables. It will not be possible to economically develop the
renewable resources of Trinidad and Tobago for the purpose of electricity generation against a gas
price of about $ 1/MMBtu, even assuming inefficient power plants.
Renewables would primarily compete against the cost of fuel and other operating costs of already
operating plants, because no new installed capacity is required.
Without significant change in current policies, the introduction of renewable energy is uneconomic
in this framework.
The long-term consequences of not developing the renewable resources could be disastrous, since
the current gas-based electrical generation capacity will become useless when natural gas

12
production becomes insufficient, and the country would not have prepared for the eventual large-
scale change-over to renewables.
The government is aware of the need to develop renewables and an initial relationship has been
entered into with Shell-BP for the creation of 130 MW of renewable power xii.
Current National Electricity Policy. The best statement of the national policy of Trinidad and
Tobago can be found in the document supporting the Intended Nationally Determined Contribution
(“INDC”) under the Paris Agreementxiii, which states:
“Trinidad and Tobago already produces all of its electricity from natural gas and is working
towards achieving greater efficiency through combined cycle generation at all its power plants.
This sector should therefore be at the edge of low carbon emissions with renewable energy being
the next stage for reducing emissions even further.”
The fact that Trinidad and Tobago already produces all its electricity from natural gas is indeed an
important statement in a worldwide context whereby many countries (USA, China, etc.) still use
coal as an important source for electricity generation.
The policy shows the anticipated sequence: first promote increased efficiency of power generation
and next promote renewable resources. This seems indeed a rational sequence. Nevertheless, the
National Climate Change Policy adopted by the country does not show detail of the timeline and
suggested specific measures to achieve this overall goal.
Implementing the National Electricity Policy – Step 1. Conceptually, the first step is simple:
stop subsidizing energy. Natural gas delivered to IPPs should be competitively priced. Tariffs to
residential, commercial, and industrial customers should be adjusted upward accordingly to permit
IPPs to have profitable operations.
The competitive natural gas price would be low compared to gas prices in Europe or Asia and
therefore electricity tariffs would still be low compared to international conditions, but not
excessively low.
Assuming the first step would succeed, what would be the next step?
Implementing the National Electricity Policy – Step 2. Apart from implementing the 130 MW
renewable energy agreement, there is indeed no panic to rush into utility scale renewables. A
waiting period of 5 years before the next major renewable utility scale investment would be made,
maybe beneficial for a number of reasons.
Firstly, the increase in tariffs will encourage energy efficiency. Customers will become more
careful using electricity. This may slow down electricity demand and the waiting period would
permit to analyze the trends.
Secondly, higher electricity tariffs may encourage homeowners and businesses to start installing
their own residential or commercial solar panels. This should be furthermore encouraged with the
creation of feed-in tariffs, so excess solar can be sold back to the grid. It is beneficial to see for a
few years how such private investments in solar energy would work out.

13
Thirdly, the program of improving efficiency in power generation would receive a strong impetus
with the increased costs of natural gas, and it is beneficial to see how moving into combined cycle
generation progresses. It can be recommended to consider whether special tax incentives can be
created to increase the interest in such investments.
Finally, it is expected that the cost of solar energy will further decline. So, nothing is economically
lost by waiting for a few years.
The waiting period would also permit to monitor other issues, such as the introduction of EVs in
Trinidad and Tobago and the response to the proposed improved fiscal terms for deep water.
Also, it can be recommended to do a detailed offshore wind survey in order to better plan a strategy
for the eventual production of offshore wind energy and to define the respective license areas.
Implementing the National Electricity Policy – Step 3. As part of the overall policy to achieve
Net-Zero by 2060, it can be recommended that by 2050 all power generation should be based on
renewables. Therefore, the third step is to move gradually to this objective in three phases, as
follows:
• The priority should be to develop utility scale solar energy from 2025 onwards, which is
relatively low cost as explained above.
• Next, would be the development of somewhat higher cost offshore wind energy, and
• Finally, the development of utility scale renewable energy storage to be able to produce
100% renewable electricity on a 24/7 basis by 2050.
As will be discussed below, the conversion of the power sector by 2050 is important, since priority
of natural gas use should be given to methanol plants and cement industries, since these industries
have few other options, but to use natural gas.
The transformation of the power sector should be part of a national strategy, in which the long
term interest should override possible short term economic considerations through legislation or
by other means. This would make the introduction of carbon taxes not necessary, that would
otherwise be required.
By 2025 it should be possible to install utility scale solar for less than 4 cents per kWh. The
country may introduce variable electricity tariffs with lower tariffs during the day when low cost
solar is available. This would promote the optimal use of solar energy.
Offshore wind would be introduced somewhere between 2030 and 2035 depending on the results
of the offshore wind survey. An important R&D development for offshore wind is the creation of
larger turbines that can benefit from the higher wind velocities at greater height.
An example is the recent Vestas 15 MW turbine xiv which has a swept area of 43,000 m2 and a
production capacity of 80 GWh per year. Its rotor diameter is 236 meter, and the cut-in wind speed
is 3m/s. By 2030 there might be even larger turbines that can operate at lower costs, such as 5
cents per KWh or less.

14
As will be discussed below, offshore wind may be attractive to develop earlier as part of an overall
green hydrogen or green ammonia scheme.
Major energy storage may be required from 2040 or 2045 onwards. With respect to renewable
energy storage, an important development is the use of Electric Vehicles as backup for energy
storage. With at least 70% of the vehicles EVs by 2050 and assuming variable power tariffs,
owners of EVs may find it attractive to use their vehicles for energy storage. This means utility
scale storage requirements by 2045 may be modest.
A huge amount of R&D is taking place to lower cost of energy storage. For instance, the US
Department of Energyxv has published a roadmap to achieve low-cost storage by 2030, called
“Energy Storage Grand Challenge”. With respect to utility scale long term storage the goal is to
achieve a cost by 2030 of 5 cents per kWh. This is for a 100MW 10-hour storage system. A wide
variety of R&D storage systems is supported by the program. It might therefore be that by 2040
the cost of renewable energy storage will be relatively modest; for instance, 4 cents per KWh.

RESTRUCTURING THE OTHER SECTORS

A variety of policies is required for the other sectors.
Electric Vehicles (“EVs”). Given the fact that there is ample power generating capacity, the
incremental costs of producing electricity, even based on competitive natural gas prices, is
remarkably low. Therefore, it is beneficial for Trinidad and Tobago to promote the use of EVs
based on nationally produced low-cost electricity, instead of importing high-cost petroleum
products, such as gasoline and diesel. Also, typical driving distances on the islands are well below
the range of current EVs.
Assuming Step 1 is successful, and electricity is no longer subsidized, it can be recommended to
promote the use of EVs. A successful way of doing this would be to follow the example of Norway,
which has one of the highest uses of EVs. Norway achieved this objective by making the purchase
and import of EVs exempt from VAT. Trinidad and Tobago could do the same.
As the power sector moves gradually to renewable energy, the EVs would increasingly contribute
to lowering CO2 emissions. The goal would be to have 100% of the road transport electric by
2060 based on 100% renewable energy (or based on hydrogen in some cases).
Electric Planes and Taxis. Electric planes and air taxis are increasingly being considered.
Vertical Aerospace, UK, has pre-orders for 1000 aircrafts from American Airlines, Virgin Atlantic and
others for its air taxi, VA-X4xvi. This is a 4 person aircraft plus pilot that can take off vertically like a
helicopter but flies like a plane at 200 miles per hour over a maximum distance of 100 miles. It is
totally electric and carbon free.
Such air taxis seem just about ideal to fly between Piarco Airport and hotels or other locations on
Tobago. VAT exemption for purchasing such electric air taxis should be introduced.

15
For larger distances hydrogen planes are now being planned, among others, by Airbus.
Ferries Based on Renewables. The ferries operating between Trinidad and Tobago could be
converted within 15 years to the use of renewable energy. Ferries could operate on electricity and
on hydrogen. Also, green methanol is being considered as a possible marine fuel. Ellen, an
electric ferry in Denmark xvii currently can transport up to 30 cars between islands. Switch Maritime
in California is building the first 70-foot hydrogen fuel cell ferry for the Bay area.
Cement. Cement industries are difficult to convert to renewable energy. It is therefore important
that this industry should have priority in terms of supplies of natural gas relative to other sectors.
Internationally, considerable research is being done as to how to convert this industry to
renewables. Therefore, eventually the country may benefit from such international developments.
Alternatively, carbon capture and storage (“CCS”) may have to be introduced.
Gas based industries and LNG exports. The gas-based industries relate to ammonia, methanol,
fertilizer, and melamine production. The fertilizer and melamine production depend in turn on
ammonia production.
Depending on the development of the natural gas production, the international ammonia market
and policies of ammonia importing nations, Trinidad and Tobago may find it necessary to convert
to the production of “blue” ammonia, which is ammonia production with CCS of the emitted CO2.
Trinidad and Tobago has already considerable experience in CO 2 injection and storage related to
the enhanced oil recovery (“EOR”) in particular reservoirs xviii. Further EOR opportunities are
being evaluated and appear possible. However, even without the possibility of EOR, the injection
of CO2 for climate change reasons is amply possible in the country. If it is beneficial to move to
blue ammonia production, there are no major technical obstacles to such a scheme.
As described earlier, the future LNG markets can be expected to be highly competitive.
However, it can be expected that LNG exports and gas-based industry production will gradually
decline over the next twenty years, subject to the possible development of a green ammonia
industry, to be discussed below.
The level of LNG exports would primarily depend on the level of gas production and the future
production of ammonia and methanol. Assuming current ammonia and methanol would not
decline, LNG exports would terminate around 2035.
In principle, the gas-based industries could be supplied with imported gas from Guyana and
Venezuela, depending on gas pricing and international market conditions for ammonia and
methanol. However, Guyana is determined to land associated natural gas from their large oil
fields with priority in country and has already selected the site for the relevant infrastructure.
Therefore, this scheme is questionable. In case of gas imports, they would be most likely from
Venezuela.
Refining. It can be expected that within a few years international oil production will start to
decline. This means the world will have to deal with an ongoing structural over-capacity of
refining operations. Furthermore, unless there are major discoveries in deep water, local oil

16
production will continue to decline. This is not an attractive environment to rekindle refining
operations that were recently closed.

CARBON TAXES
Most economists, as well as the World Bank, would recommend the introduction of carbon taxes
as part of an overall climate change policy.
Given the fact that it may be difficult enough to move Trinidad and Tobago out of subsidized
electricity, this seems a “bridge too far” as part of the energy transition policy. Anyway, the
expected rapid decline of natural gas and oil production will force the country out of fossil fuels
over time.
The proposed legislative policy with respect to the transformation of the power sector would make
the introduction of carbon taxes not necessary.
An important matter is, however, the international development of CBAM policies. If major duties
would be introduced in OECD countries with respect to import of gas-based products from
Trinidad and Tobago, it would be better to pay carbon taxes to Trinidad and Tobago than duties to
foreign governments.

POSSIBLE NEW INDUSTRIES

Green Hydrogen. Green hydrogen can be produced based on renewable energy and water
electrolysis. Currently, the production of green hydrogen is not yet economic. However, it is
believed that prior to 2030, the costs of green hydrogen production can be brought down to $ 2/kg,
which would make green hydrogen economic xix.
The main costs of green hydrogen are the electrolysers and the cost of renewable energy. The
economics of hydrogen production depends on the efficient and longest possible use per day of
the electrolysers.
Therefore, ideally stable and low-cost renewable energy is required. The joint development of
wind and solar energy, to create the maximum daily availability of renewable energy, is beneficial.
Alternatively, possible cheap storage methods can be introduced for solar energy.
In principle a solar + wind + green hydrogen project would be possible. As indicated above, the
costs of renewable energy can be expected to be about average for Trinidad and Tobago and
therefore the country would have difficulty competing with the ultra-low-cost renewable countries
(Chile, Australia, Oman, etc.) for large scale hydrogen exports. Nevertheless, the cost of
transporting hydrogen by liquid hydrogen carriers is relatively expensive. Therefore, Trinidad and
Tobago may be able to competitively produce green hydrogen for local use and for the Caribbean
market.

17
Possible local use of green hydrogen in Trinidad and Tobago may be important in several sectors.
In case hydrogen planes develop in the future, the country would be able to supply the hydrogen.
NewGen Energy xx is already planning to produce green hydrogen for delivery to ammonia plants.
The development of green hydrogen should be strongly promoted, preferably with tax incentives.
Green Ammonia. Having already in place a large ammonia industry and industries using
ammonia derivatives may place Trinidad and Tobago in a competitive position to migrate from a
gas-based ammonia industry to a green ammonia industry. The production processes of gas-based
ammonia and green ammonia are very different. However, associated activities, such as storage
and transport would be the same. Therefore, there might be commercial potential for solar + wind
+ green hydrogen + green ammonia projects.
Green ammonia projects are already taking place. In Spain, Iberdrola and Fertiberia are investing
in a plant which will produce a total of 0.2 million tons ammonia per year based on 100 MW solar,
20 MWh storage and 20 MW electrolysisxxi. The CIP group in Denmark will build a 1000 MW
green ammonia plant based on offshore wind in Esbjerg. In Saudi Arabiaxxii, ACWA, Air Products
and NEOM have teamed up to produce the largest green hydrogen project to date; a $ 5 billion
investment in a plant that will produce 650 tons of hydrogen per day as well as 1.2 million tons
per year of green ammonia, based on solar and wind energy.
Therefore, green ammonia could be the key to long term survival of the current ammonia and
ammonia derivatives industries in Trinidad and Tobago. The life of LNG exports could be
extended if green ammonia could be started during the next ten years to replace regular ammonia
production.
Also, the development of green ammonia should be strongly promoted, possibly with tax
incentives.
Green Methanol. The production of green methanol based on green hydrogen would also be a
possibility. However, in this case access to large volumes of low-cost CO2 would be a problem.
In the post Net-Zero world the logical combination is to combine power plants based on urban
waste or biomass with methanol plants using the CO 2 produced.
One such methanol plant is already under construction in Swedenxxiii slated to produce 50,000 tons
of methanol per year, based on a district heating plant of Oevik Energi combined with green
hydrogen produced by Liquid Wind. The methanol will be used for marine transport in vessels
converted to use methanol.
It may be somewhat of a long shot to expect such a combination in Trinidad and Tobago.
Therefore, natural gas should preferably be allocated with priority to methanol plants to ensure
their longest possible survival. Nevertheless, if somehow green methanol could be produced, it
would be a fuel of choice for marine shipping, with a good bunkering location close to the Panama
Canal.

18
It should be noted that methanol is a considerably cleaner fuel for marine transport than low
sulphur fuel oil. Therefore, in the near term the introduction of methanol (green or not) is
beneficial.
Carbon Capture and Storage with direct CO2 capture from the air (“Direct Air Capture”,
“DAC”). Direct capture of CO2 from the air for underground storage is still somewhat of an
uncertain concept. Since CO2 is only a small percentage of the air (412 ppm today), it is very
costly to capture and separate it. Cost estimates vary between $ 100 and $ 1000 per ton CO2, well
in excess of current carbon tax levels.
Nevertheless, a variety of companies are working on the concept. For instance, a one-million-ton
CO2 plant based on DAC is planned to start in 2026 in Scotland xxiv. The investors are Carbon
Engineering and Storegga. The CO2 will be injected off the Scottish coast in depleted petroleum
formations. It should be noted that Trinidad and Tobago would have been a much better location
for this project due to the cheaper re-injection potential.
Given the experience and possibilities related to CO2 underground storage in Trinidad and Tobago,
the country may be in a good position to benefit from other similar projects.
Green Synthetic fuels. Assuming Trinidad and Tobago will be able to establish commercial
green hydrogen production, the next step would be to produce synthetic fuels. In particular,
synthetic jet fuel, as alternative to hydrogen, may be in strong demand in the future. Some initial
synthetic jet fuel production is already taking place. The Klesch Group xxv, operating the Heide oil
refinery in Northern Germany, is perfecting this process based on hydrogen from local wind farms.
Lufthansa committed to use this synthetic fuel for 5% in their jet fuel consumption within 5 years.

ENERGY TRANSITION POLICIES FOR TRINIDAD AND

TOBAGO
In summary, the following policies are critical for a successful energy transition in Trinidad and
Tobago:
1. The year 2060 should be adopted to achieve Net-Zero carbon conditions in the country.
2. By 2050 all power generation should be based on renewables.
3. As the production of natural gas declines, priority should be given for use by methanol
plants and cement industries.
4. Subsidization of electricity should stop, and electricity tariffs should be adjusted upward.
5. A national strategy for gradual transformation of the power sector should be backed up by
possible legislation to overcome short term economic considerations.
6. The planned 130 MW renewables should be followed through.
7. VAT exemption should be given for the purchase of electric vehicles and air taxis.
8. Special tax benefits could be considered for the promotion of combined cycle gas plants.
9. Deep water gas development should be based on a fixed gas profit share of 15%, while the
minimum oil profit share should not exceed 20%.

19
 10. Deep water PSCs should be renewed automatically upon their termination.
11. Preferably, a variable daily electricity tariff should be introduced to promote solar energy.
12. A detailed survey of offshore wind should be carried out to determine license areas.
13. A standby capability should be maintained with respect to CCS in case international
developments require the export of blue ammonia.
14. The development of green hydrogen and green ammonia should be strongly promoted with
tax incentives.
15. There is no need to introduce carbon taxes, unless international CBAM developments make
this necessary.

ENERGY TRANSITION TIMELINE

The future is highly uncertain. Results of R&D could dramatically impact on forecasts with
unknown and unpredictable results. Nevertheless, based on current understandings of
technological developments the following transition timeline would be a possibility for Trinidad
and Tobago:
2021 – The Government would adopt elimination of subsidization of electricity prices, VAT
exemption would be established for EVs and electric air taxis, fiscal tax incentives would be
provided for combined cycle gas plants and green hydrogen and green ammonia production, the
initial 130 MW renewables would continue to be implemented, the deep water oil and gas bid
round would start, feed in tariffs would be established for private solar generation and during COP
26 T&T would commit to be Net-Zero carbon neutral by 2060 and 100% renewables for electricity
generation by 2050.
2025 – T&TEC would commit to start development of 20% renewables for electricity production.
License areas for offshore wind would be established.
2030 – T&TEC would commit to the development of 40% renewables, an offshore bid round for
wind energy would be held and wind energy production would start soon afterwards, the first
commitments would be made to invest in green hydrogen and green ammonia production, EVs
would become 20% of the imports, the first electric air taxis would operate. Daily variable
electricity tariffs would be introduced.
2035 – Exports of LNG would terminate. (assuming gas would be used for ammonia and methanol
production). Fertilizers and melamine would be produced based on green or blue ammonia to
avoid CBAM levies. The ferries between Trinidad and Tobago would be electric or operate on
hydrogen or other renewable marine fuel.
2040 – Large utility scale renewable energy storage projects would be undertaken. T&T would
commit to 70% renewables. All ammonia exports would be based on green hydrogen. EVs would
be 50% of all imports. T&T would fuel large distance aircraft at Piarco Airport with locally
produced hydrogen.

20
2045 – T&TEC would commit to develop 100% renewables. First large-scale DAC project would
be initiated based on credits against international carbon taxes. T&T would export significant
volumes of green hydrogen to Caribbean countries.
2050 – All electricity production would be based on production of renewables. Gas use would be
restricted to methanol plants and cement industries with some CCS offsets. EVs would consist of
70% of imports. All local air transport would be electric. T&T would start to export synthetic jet
fuel.
2060 – T&T would achieve Net-Zero Carbon. All imported vehicles would be EVs. All oil and
gas production would stop (or alternatively small remaining production would be offset with CCS).
Cement would be based on hydrogen and/or renewable methane (methane produced based on
renewable energy). T&T would be a large green ammonia exporter to world markets and green
hydrogen and synthetic fuels exporter to the Caribbean. T&T would have large DAC operations.
2070 – Population of T&T would be 1.2 million people. As a result of the successful
implementation of the transition policies, GDP per capita (PPP) would be $ 35,000 by 2050 and $
56,000 by 2070 and many high-quality jobs would be created.

WHAT IF?
What if successive governments of Trinidad and Tobago do not implement an aggressive energy
transition policy?
What if the country sleep-walks toward 2050 in the mistaken belief that somehow oil and gas
production will continue to support cheap electricity, substantial government budgets and large
exports of LNG, ammonia, methanol, and fertilizers?
The most important conclusion of this report is that Trinidad and Tobago does NOT have a
competitive advantage in producing renewable energy. Ultra-low-cost solar and wind are
available in other countries. Reasonable solar cost exists in most of the tropics and subtropics.
Attractive wind conditions exist in many of the temperate zones. Cheap biomass can be produced
by most large agricultural exporters. Large DAC projects can be created in all nations with depleted
oil and gas reservoirs or basalts or peridotites that absorb CO2.
Therefore, renewable methane, green hydrogen, green ammonia, green methanol, green fertilizers,
green synthetic fuels, and DAC projects will be produced in the countries that are most aggressive
and successful in attracting the large-scale private investments required for energy transition.
If Trinidad and Tobago does not implement such policies, it will wake up in 2050 to discover that
(as an example):
• The methanol and cement industries have to close for lack of natural gas
• Electricity production must initiate a massive conversion to renewables, at significant costs
at a time the country can no longer afford it

21
 • The USA imports green ammonia and fertilizers from Puerto Rico because the USA
protected this industry with CBAM levies against ammonia and fertilizer imports from
Trinidad and Tobago and therefore the ammonia and fertilizer industries in T&T closed in
2040
• The Dominican Republic has cornered the Caribbean green hydrogen market
• Barbados is the hub for hydrogen supplies for large distance aircraft
• Large DAC projects have been implemented in Peru, Texas, Scotland, Icelandxxvi,
Omanxxvii and Malaysia, but not in T&T
• Colombia is the main exporter of synthetic jet fuels in the region based on the excellent
solar potential of La Guajira
• The GDP per capita of Trinidad and Tobago is down to $ 18,000
• The economic prospects for 2070 are grim because the country has not established
competitive industries based on renewables and has not prepared its human resource base
to be successful in the Net-Zero world. The per capita GDP in 2070 may be at best $ 22,000
and many jobs would be lost

BIOGRAPHIES
Professor Andrew Jupiter
Professor Andrew Jupiter has been associated with the energy industry for the last 50 years
commencing from 1971 as an employee of Shell Trinidad Limited. Professor Andrew Jupiter is
the Coordinator of the Petroleum Studies Unit and directly oversees the MSc Petroleum
Engineering, and MSc and Postgraduate Diploma in Petroleum Engineering and Management
programmes at The University of the West Indies (UWI).

Professor Andrew Jupiter received a BSc in Natural Sciences and a Postgraduate Diploma in
Petroleum Engineering from The UWI and also holds a Masters of Engineering Degree in Mineral
Engineering Management from The Pennsylvania State University.

He was the recipient of the Chaconia Medal (Gold) in 2016 (Public Service). He was appointed as
Distinguished Fellow in 2013 and Professor of Practice by The UWI. He is the holder of the
Methanol Holdings Trinidad Limited (MHTL) Dennis Patrick Chair in Petroleum Engineering.

Professor Andrew Jupiter was the Permanent Secretary of the Ministry of Energy and Energy
Industries Trinidad and Tobago from 1998 to 2004. He was also President of National Energy
Corporation of Trinidad and Tobago Limited (NEC) from 2009 to 2012. Professor Andrew Jupiter
has held the position of Director on various State Boards.

He was one of fifty (50) public servants to be honoured at the Outstanding Public Service Awards
Ceremony and Gala by the Government of Trinidad and Tobago for the country’s golden 50th year
anniversary of independence. He is a member of the Society of Petroleum Engineers, Fellow of
the Energy Institute, Fellow of the Institute of Materials, Minerals and Mining (FIMMM), and a

22
member of the Association of International Petroleum Negotiators. Professor Andrew Jupiter is
married to Dr. Clarise McMillan-Jupiter.

Dr. Pedro van Meurs and Van Meurs Energy (VME)

Dr. Pedro van Meurs received his Ph.D. cum laude from the State University of Utrecht in 1970.
From 1970 to 1973 he was Chief of the International Petroleum Developments Division,
Department of Energy, Mines and Resources, Federal Government of Canada.

Since 1974 Dr. van Meurs and Van Meurs Energy have provided petroleum consulting services to
governments of 90 different jurisdictions, including Alaska, Alberta, Bangladesh, Bolivia, the
Canadian Western Arctic, China, Gabon, Guatemala, Kuwait, Mexico, Newfoundland, Oman,
Pakistan, Peru, Russia, Thailand and Trinidad and Tobago. Dr. van Meurs is currently lead advisor
on the Nigerian Petroleum Industry Bill.

VME has the largest and most comprehensive world petroleum fiscal comparative analysis data
base consisting of 790 fiscal systems in 169 countries and territories, featuring extensive sensitivity
analysis capabilities on field size, costs and prices. During the last 40 years Dr. van Meurs has
provided highly regarded courses in fiscal systems various times per year for 20 – 40 participants
per course on an open access basis, currently through London Petro Academy in London, UK, as
well as on an in-house basis for governments and companies. During the COVID epidemic the
course are provided on a virtual basis.

Dr. van Meurs has assisted as expert witness for governments and companies in 9 arbitration cases.

i
International Energy Agency, Net Zero by 2050 – A Roadmap for the Global Energy Sector (2021)
ii
International Energy Agency, Net Zero by 2050 – A Roadmap for the Global Energy Sector (2021): 36.
iii
Emiliano Bellini, Saudi Arabia’s second PV tender draws world record low bid of $ 0.0104/KWh, (PV Magazine
International, 8 April 2021)
iv
Darrel Proctor, “GM has plan to make all vehicles electric”, Powermag.com, Last Accessed 31 January 2021,
https://www.powermag.com/gm-has-plan-to-make-all-vehicles-electric/
v
Michael Mazengarb, “Australian Team makes green ammonia production breakthrough”, Renew Economy, Last
Accessed 22 January 2021, https://reneweconomy.com.au/australian-team-makes-green-ammonia-production-
breakthrough/
vi
Frans Timmermans and Josep Borrell (Opinion), “Europe’s carbon tariff plan will “trigger a race to the top”, but
there will be tensions”, Sydney Morning Herald, Last Accessed 7 May 2021,
https://www.smh.com.au/world/europe/europe-s-carbon-tariff-plan-will-trigger-a-race-to-the-top-but-there-will-be-
tensions-20210506-p57pnw
vii
McKinsey and Company, Perspective on Hydrogen (2020)
viii
Irena Slav, “Russia is making a mad dash to outrun peak oil demand”, OilPice.com, Last Accessed 16 May 2021,
https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/Russia-Is-Making-A-Mad-Dash-To-Outrun-Peak-Oil-Demand
ix
International Energy Agency, Net Zero by 2050 – A Roadmap for the Global Energy Sector (2021): 176.
x
S. Vollset et al., “Fertility, Mortality, Migration and population scenarios for 195 countries”, (Elsevier Ltd., 2020),
OA Open Access
xi
Wikipedia, “Lists of countries by GDP (PPP) per capita”, Last Accessed 18 May 2021,
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_GDP_(PPP)_per_capita
xii
Anu Bhambhani, “Consortium of Oil&Gas Giants BP & Shell to negotiate PowerPurchase Agreement with
Trinidad and Tobago fo 130 MW Renewable Energy”, TaiyangNews.info, Last Accessed 27 February 2020,
http://taiyangnews.info/markets/130-mw-re-ppa-for-bp-shell-in-trinidad-tobago/

23
xiii
Government of Trinidad and Tobago, Intended Nationally Determined Contribution (iNDC) under the United
Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change.
xiv
Sarah Smith, “Vestas launches new offshore wind turbine”, EnergyGlobal.com, Last Accessed 10 February 2021,
https://www.energyglobal.com/wind/10022021/vestas-launches-new-offshore-wind-turbine/
xv
US Department of Energy, Energy Storage Grand Challenge – Roadmap (2020).
xvi
Hanna Ziady, “American Airlines and Virgin Atlantic order electric air taxis from UK Startup”, CNN Business,
Last Accessed 11 June 2021, https://edition.cnn.com/2021/06/11/business/vertical-aerospace-evtol/
xvii
Adrienne Murray, “Plug-In and Sail: Meet the Electric Ferry Pioneers”, BBC Technology of Business,
https://www.bbc.com/news/business-50233206
xviii
Ministry of Energy and Energy Industries, “Carbon Capture Utilization and Storage”, MEEI,
https://www.energy.gov.tt/carbon-capture-utilization-and-storage-ccus/
xix
Jonathan Spencer Jones, “Global Hydrogen Initiative Formed to Drive Industry Scale-up”,
Powerengineeringint.com, Last Accessed 10 December 2020,
https://www.powerengineeringint.com/hydrogen/global-hydrogen-initiative-formed-to-drive-industry-scale-up/
xx
Kiran Mathur Mohammed, “How Philip Julian is transforming the energy sector”, Trinidad and Tobago Newsday,
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