2023 Global Carbon Fiber Composites Market Report
2023 Global Carbon Fiber Composites Market Report
2023 Global Carbon Fiber Composites Market Report
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2023 is an extremely special year for the global carbon fiber market. According to our statistics
and comprehensive evaluation of multiple sources, the global demand for carbon fiber in 2023 was
115,000 tons, a decrease of 14.8% compared to 135,000 tons in 2022. This is the first time since
1995 that there has been negative demand growth globally. For Chinese enterprises, this is an
unprecedented experience and challenge. Where should the global carbon fiber market go?
Let's briefly review the history of global demand for carbon fiber: In 1971, with the production of
PAN-based carbon fiber Torayca T300 by Toray(Japan) (1 ton/month) as a landmark event, humans
began the industrial-scale production of PAN-based carbon fiber. In the following years, Japan and
USA successively developed fishing rods and golf clubs, which were the initial application markets
of PAN-based carbon fiber. In 1975, Toray's carbon fiber was successfully applied in the secondary
load-bearing components of Boeing B737. In the following years, Toray's carbon fiber entered the
secondary load-bearing components of Boeing B757 and B767, opening up the application of
PAN-based materials in aerospace industry. From 1971 to 1985, we call it the "nursery period". Into
the mid-80s to the early 90s, with the addition of new sports equipment such as tennis rackets and
new aerospace applications such as satellites, rockets, Boeing B777, and Airbus A320, the carbon
fiber market entered a "crawling period". However, during the period 1990-1995, the civil aviation
market entered a recession (see 1970-2018 civil aircraft delivery and economic cycle, 2020
Chinaerospace), with aircraft shipments decreased year by year. The carbon fiber market, which
heavily relies on the aerospace military industry market, also entered a period of stability and
decline, which we call the "toddler" period". From 1995 to 2002, with the civil aviation market
recovered, B777's main load-bearing structure used carbon fiber, sports equipment developed
steadily, and new industrial applications such as pressure vessels into the demand for stable
development, the market has entered the "walking period". From 2003 to 2022: Boeing launched
the B787 composite aircraft program in 2003; In 2005, Airbus launched the composite aircraft A320
program; The carbon fiber composite materials of both aircraft account for 50% of the total
structural weight, ushering in a new era of aviation; In 2007, ZOLTEK announced an agreement
with the world's largest wind blade equipment supplier VESTAS to provide $300 million in carbon
fiber over a period of five years; These iconic events have contributed to the rapid growth of the
market, entering a "running period".
We used to think that the carbon fiber market would move forward, or even sprint, and the
market was full of optimism. A few years ago, this report also made many optimistic predictions. As
the saying goes, "Man predicts(the original is thinks),God laughs". Around 2017, our industrial
development strategy was planned in accordance with Toray's product development strategy;
However, with the emergence of industrial applications such as wind blade, these plans have been
heavily criticized by the market. After 2017, we have shown great enthusiasm and desire for
industrial applications such as wind blade, and we have been hit hard by the market again in 2023.
Under the repeated abuse from prediction to being criticized by the market, we need to seriously
reflect on the scientificity of industrial policies. It is true that concentrating our efforts can indeed
In 2023, China's carbon fiber market is also not optimistic, with a demand of 69,075 tons, a
decrease of 7.2% compared to 74,429 tons in 2022; The operating capacity in 2023 was 140,830
tons, an increase of 25.7% compared to 112,050 tons in 2022. Lower market demand, while
operating capacity of high-speed growth, is bound to form a price bloodbath and high inventory of
the serious state of involution. How can China's carbon fiber industry overcome difficulties? And
where should the global carbon fiber market go? I don't have the courage to try to answer such a big
question now, I just try to provide more data and facts to the industry as much as possible.
Everyone has their own opinions and makes their own conclusions!
Special Acknowledgement: Thanks for the high attention and support of participating
enterprises of the whole carbon fiber industry, all of you have made extraordinary contributions to
our data and conclusion; thanks for the support from every leader of China Chemical Fibers
Association; Thanks to Mr. Zhang Dingjin, the former chairman of China Composites Group
Corporation; Mr. Huang Xiangyu, the vice general manager of Sinopec Shanghai Petrochemical
Co., Ltd; Mr. Chen Yuhang, the vice general manager of Anhui Win-Carbon New Materials Co.,Ltd;
Mrs. Yang Bin, the chairman of Nantong Fuyuan Carbon Fiber Recycling Co., Ltd, etc. and a group
of colleagues in this industry, they selflessly share the industry with information and ideas.
全球碳纤维需求(千吨)
Global demand for carbon fiber(Kilo-ton)
300.0 280.3
250.0
200.0
150.0
115.0
100.0
50.0 36.4
0.0
Compared to 135000 tons in 2022, the global demand data for 2023 is 115,000 tons, a
year-on-year decrease of 14.8%, which is different from the global growth pattern of 10% in
previous years.
We have several bases for obtaining the global data for 2023 as follows:
Firstly, I would like to express my gratitude to Chinese carbon fiber enterprises for their
continued support, as they have proactively reported their annual sales data. Of course, we have
also conducted multi-channel data verification in the market. The sales volume in China, combined
with the total number of imports, is determined by the market demand in China (not entirely
scientific, such as the handling of incoming processing data).
Next, we started to refer to the annual sales data or business situation of international carbon
fiber peers to determine demand from the supply side, such as the shipment volume of Japanese
carbon fiber enterprises, the annual report of SGL(Germany) and the annual report of HEXCEL ;
Then, we looked at the current development status of a large number of application markets,
such as the delivery volume of Boeing and Airbus in 2022 (especially composite aircraft), and the
operational status of sports equipment giants.
Finally, we also refer to international peer data on the market. Combining the above four
categories of basis, we calculated the global demand for carbon fiber.
2023全球碳纤维需求-应用(千吨)
2023 Global demand for carbon fiber by application(Kilo-ton)
C/C Composite
10.00
8.7%
Wind blades
Molding &
20.00
Compound
17.4%
11.00
9.6%
Pressure Vessels
14.00
12.2% Sports Leisure
18.80
16.3%
The application market pattern in 2023 has undergone significant changes. Compared to
previous years, the demand for carbon fiber in the wind blades market has been weak. After the
epidemic, the aerospace market has rapidly recovered and returned to the position of leading
applications.
In recent years, the sports leisure market has shown a rollercoaster like change: historically,
the market has been steadily growing, and there has been a frenzy since the outbreak of the
pandemic. For example, the growth rate in 2022 compared to 2021 reached 29.7%. In addition to
the pandemic stimulating public consumption, the main reason is the disruption of the national
shipping market caused by the pandemic, which has led to a large inventory of Western distributors.
In 2023, the world gradually returned to normal, and a large amount of inventory led to a sharp
decline in sales. Compared to 2022, sports leisure in 2023 decreased by 21.7%.
The pressure vessel market is also growing in 2023, but in 2022, due to the tight supply of
carbon fiber, all the major manufacturers made certain inventories. In 2023, carbon fiber supply was
sufficient, so a certain amount of inventory was consumed, and new demand showed a slight
decrease.
Most other markets remain similar or slightly lower than last year, mainly due to the inventory
under the tight supply of carbon fiber in 2022 was used in 2023. C/C composite materials (including
insulation felt) are mainly influenced by China's photovoltaic industry, with a slight increase in 2023.
2023 全球碳纤维需求-应用(百万美元)
2023 Global demand for carbon fiber by application(Million US$)
Automobile
175
4.6% Aerospace
Molding & 1,901
Compound 49.8%
235
6.2%
Pressure Vessels
302
7.9% Wind Blades Sports Leisure
302 467
7.9% 12.2%
Pressu
Molding& C/C
Applica Aerospac Wind Sports re Autom Constr Electro Cable Total
Compou Compo Marine Other
tion e Blades Leisure Vessel obile uction nics Core amount
nd sites
s
Deman
22.0 20.0 18.8 14.0 11.0 9.0 10.0 4.8 2.2 1.2 1.0 1.0 115.0
d (KT)
Percen
19.1% 17.4% 16.3% 12.2% 9.6% 7.8% 8.7% 4.2% 1.9% 1.0% 0.9% 0.9% 100%
t
USD/K
86.4 15.1 24.8 21.6 21.4 19.4 19.4 21.6 24.8 24.8 24.8 21.6
G
Million
1,901 302 466 302 235 175 194 104 55 30 25 22 3,810
USD
Percen
49.9% 7.9% 12.2% 7.9% 6.2% 4.6% 5.1% 2.7% 1.4% 0.8% 0.7% 0.6% 100.0%
t
The global sales amount of carbon fiber is 3.81 billion US dollars, a 13% decrease from 4.385
billion US dollars in 2022. In addition to lower demand for the number, the price compared to the
previous two years also fell significantly.
2023全球碳纤维需求-产品(千吨)
2023 Global demand for carbon fiber by products (Kilo-ton)
Intermediate
modulus High modulus
16.5 1.1
14.3% 0.9%
Standard
modulus - small Standard
48.1 modulus - heavy
41.8% 49.4
43.0%
2023全球/国产碳纤维需求-产品(千吨)
2023 Global /Chinese production for carbon fiber by products
(Kilo-ton)
60.0
49.4 48.1
50.0
40.0
28.20 Global
30.0
21.81
20.0 16.5 China
Definition of modulus:
Standard modulus: tensile modulus within 230-270GPa
Intermediate modulus: tensile modulus within 270-350GPa
High modulus: tensile modulus over 350GPa
*These data will be adjusted as technology evolves.
The above mentioned global and Chinese market product established pattern is objective. On
the one hand, pursuing higher performance is necessary, but it is necessary to prevent blind pursuit
of higher performance. “Caviar to the general”is the basic rule, especially for enterprises, profit
should still be the fundamental goal.
2023全球碳纤维运行产能及扩产计划-制造商(千吨)
70.0 2022 Global CF Operation Capacities & Expansion plan by Manufacturer (Kilo-ton))
7.5
60.0
15.0
50.0
29.0 30.0
40.0
Expansion
Plan
30.0
33.7 Merged
30.0
49.0
Capacity
Operating
20.0
Capacity
28.8 28.5 6.0 20.0
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In 2023, although we still use the concept of "operating capacity", there is still the problem of
"capacity discounting". These problems mainly exist in enterprises with the production of 1K-6K,
they will calculate the production line according to 12K.
In 2023, the main increase in production capacity worldwide is: Zhongfu Shenying's addition of
14,000 tons; Jilin Chemical Fiber Group's addition of 7,000 tons; Hyosung(Korea) 's addition of
5,500 tons; DowAksa(Turkey)'s addition of 2,400 tons; Sinofibers's addition of 1,500 tons and
Changsheng's addition of 800 tons.
Among the top ten manufacturers in the world, there are four enterprises in China's Mainland,
namely Jilin Chemical Fiber Group, Zhongfu Shenying, Newtech Group and Baojing.
In 2023, the following expansions have been announced and are in progress: Toray Europe will
invest 120 million euros to increase annual production from 5,000 tons to 6,000 tons at French plant;
Toray USA invested $15 million in upgrading production lines to double T1100G capacity
Total:290,230 MT
2023全球碳纤维运行产能-区域(千吨)
2023 Global CF Operation Capacities by Region (Kilo-ton)
UK Russia
Turkey Germany
France 4.00 2.00 Spain
6.00 5.10
7.20 1.4% 0.7% 0.60
Korea 2.1% 1.8%
2.5% 0.2% Other
8.70 3.50
3.0% 1.2%
China's Taiwan
8.80
3.0% China's Mainland
Mexico 138.33
13.60 47.7%
4.7%
Hungary
15.40
5.3%
Japan USA
24.70 52.30
8.5% 18.0%
Compared to the global operating capacity of 258,550 tons in 2022 and 290,230 tons in 2023,
an increase of 12.3%. All new capacity additions are contributed by China, Hyosung(Korea) and
DowAksa(Turkey).
China's operating capacity in the world's share in recent years: 17.3% in 2019 ranked third after
the USA and Japan; 21.1% in 2020 ranked second after the USA; 30.5% in 2021 ranked first in the
world; 43.3% in 2022, ranked first globally, and 47.7% in 2023, ranked first globally. These
remarkable advances fully demonstrate the capability of China as a manufacturing powerhouse.
In 2023, the Russia-Ukraine conflict highlighted the energy issues in Europe, leading to an
increase in energy prices throughout Europe, which is an important cost for carbon fiber production.
Therefore, in addition to the necessity of a tight supply chain and the high added value of carbon
fiber, the production of carbon fiber in Europe (including Eastern Europe) will be difficult.
According to unconfirmed market rumors, ZOLTEK's Hungarian plant is experiencing a prolonged
shutdown.
From the origin of the production factor advantage, the global shift of carbon fiber production
from expensive energy countries and regions to cheaper regions is an inevitable trend.
中国碳纤维需求(吨)
Chinese demand for carbon fiber(MT)
90,000
80,000
70,000
60,000
50,000
53,000 Domestic
40,000
Import
30,000
20,000
10,000 16,075
0
*
08
09
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
25
24
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
China's total carbon fiber demand in 2023 was 69,075 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 7.2%
compared with 74,429 tons in 2022. Among them, the import volume was 16,075 tons (accounting
for 23.3% of the total demand, a decrease of 45.4% compared with 2022), and the domestic fiber
supply was 53,000 tons (accounting for 76.57% of the total demand, an increase of 17.8%
compared with 2022, compared to a high growth rate of 53.8% in 2022 and a severe slowdown in
2023).
The annual growth rates of demand in the Chinese market: 2015 (13.4%), 2016 (16.5%), 2017
(20%), 2018 (32%), 2019 (22%), 2020 (29%), 2021 (27.7%), 2022 (19.3%), and 2023 (-7.2%). A
turning point in the market has emerged. A turning point in the market has emerged.
Annual growth rate of domestic carbon fiber supply: 2015(25%), 2016(44%), 2017(105.5%),
2018(21.6%), 2019(33.3%), 2020 (54.2%), 2021(58.1%), 2022(53.8%), 2023(17.8%). As the
above market growth slows down or even decreases, the corresponding growth in domestic carbon
fiber supply will also slow down accordingly.
Imported carbon fiber shows a precipitous decline in 2023, mainly due to the enhanced import
substitution of domestic carbon fiber, and secondarily due to the less-than-expected development of
the Chinese market.
2023中国碳纤维需求-应用(吨)
2023 Chinese demand for carbon fiber by application(MT)
Marine
Cable Core Other
Electronic 400 400
875
2,200 0.6% Sports Leisure
0.6% 1.3%
3.2% 18,000
Automobile 26.1%
2,800
4.1%
Construction
3,400
4.9%
Molding &
Compound Wind Blades
4,200 17,000
6.1% 24.6%
Pressure Vessels Aerospace
4,300 C/C Composite 8,000
6.2% 7,500 11.6%
10.9%
2023中国/全球碳纤维应用对比(千吨)
25.00 2023 Chinese/Global Application Comparison(Kilo-Ton)
20.00
15.00
Global
10.00 China
5.00
0.00
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ac ur si el
ad ob &… ct
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ar
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The above chart is mainly a comparison of "application capability": in the current carbon fiber
application field, China's advantageous application industries are sports and leisure, C/C composite
(including refractory insulation felt), construction and electronics; the rapid development of
aerospace and pressure vessels has significantly narrowed the gap with international standards,
but the main demand for commercial aviation applications has just begun; There is still a huge gap
between wind blade (excluding foreign users and only counting the usage of domestic wind blade
manufacturers) and international demand of 17,000 tons in China; The application potential of
automotive and hybrid molding is enormous due to the rapid development of new energy vehicles in
China.
2023中国碳纤维需求-省份(吨)
2023 China demand for carbon fiber-Province(MT)
Tianjin Beijing
Yunnan
Hebei 704 539 Other
977
1% 1%
Zhejiang 1,440 1% 2,133
2,420 2% 3%
4% Guangdong
22,958
Fujian 33%
6,463
9%
Shandong
7,215
11%
Shanghai Jiangsu
11,917 12,310
17% 18%
From the consumption amount, Guangdong returned to the first place in China for the third
consecutive year, Shanghai became the second again, and Zhejiang entered into the ranks of large
application provinces with billion dollars.
2023中国碳纤维需求-来源(吨)
2023 Chinese demand for carbon fiber by Source(MT)
Hungary
Germany Other
296
431 1,116
0.4%
0.6% 1.6%
Mexico
1,443
2.1%
USA
2,303
3.3%
Korea China's Mainland
2,289 53,000
3.3% 76.7%
China's Taiwan
3,000
4.3%
Japan
5,196
7.5%
China's carbon fiber production has maintained progress in 2023, with market share rising from
31.7% in 2019, 38% in 2020, 46.9% in 2021, and 61% in 2022 to 76.7% in 2023, which fully
demonstrating the significant progress of China’s carbon fiber production.
China is the world's largest market for carbon fiber and also a battleground for carbon fiber
manufacturers. There is no specific pattern in the supply of each country to the Chinese market in
recent years. We just try to make some explanations for it:
In 2023, compared with 2022, in terms of small tow: Japan, China’s Taiwan(taking into account
both heavy and small tow), South Korea and the USA have 40-50% reduction in exports to China’s
Mainland, of which Japan has the lowest decline rate of 37.87% and South Korea has the highest
decline rate of 50.14%. This reflects that under the strong trend of Chinese substitution, high-quality
Japanese fibers still have many loyal users, and their self-defense ability is stronger than other
manufacturers.
In 2023, compared with 2022, in terms of heavy tow: Mexico, Germany and Hungary, there is a
51-74% cliff drop in exports to China’s mainland, with Germany's decline rate of 51.85%, Mexico's
64.49% and Hungary's 73.59%.Under the fierce Chinese impact of large tow carbon fiber, such
imports will soon be zero.
2023中国碳纤维金额-来源(千美元)
2023 Chinese demand for carbon fiber by Source(1,000 US$)
China's Taiwan
68,808
4.5%
USA
Japan
100,852
233,995
6.6%
15.2%
2015-2023中国碳纤维需求-平均单价(美元/公斤)
2015-2022 Chinese demand for carbon fiber-Unit price(US$/KG)
35.00
30.00
25.00
2015
20.00 2016
2017
2018
2019
15.00 2020
2021
2022
10.00 2023
5.00
0.00
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In 2023, for the Chinese market, all sources of supply except Japan are experiencing a decline
in prices, with Chinese supply experiencing the most drastic decline, dropping from an average
price of $33 in 2022 to an average price of $18; It is puzzling that in the face of severe shortage of
demand, the price of Japanese fibers was still increasing, which is a misjudgment of the market or
other unknown factors? But according to market news, Toray has already started a significant price
reduction in 2024.
2023中国碳纤维原丝及碳纤维运行产能-制造商(吨)
2023 Chinese PAN Precusor & CF Operation Capacities by Manufacturer
180,000
160,000 (MT)
160,000
140,000
120,000
Precursor
100,000
80,000
Carbon
Fiber
60,000 49,000
40,000 28,500
20,000 12,00012,000
7,500 6,000 5,100 4,600
2,800 2,600 2,5002,400 1,700 600 500
0
er i n g u p i n g ai st ei n er g a) O ar in ei
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In 2023, we still could not adopt the “actual capacity”, the main reason was about the
production line of some small tow enterprises, especially those who served for aerospace
application market, they would switchover fiber tow among 3K, 6K and 12K in the production.
Therefore, enterprises usually report the capacity according to 12K, but in the actual production, 3K
and 6K may be the heaviest variety. If calculating the capacity according to 3-6K, we predict that
8,000 tons should be deducted from the whole Chinese operation capacity data.
China's production capacity reaches 138,330 tons in 2023, 26,280 tons more than the
production capacity of 112,050 tons in 2022, with new capacity contributed by: Zhongfu Shenying 's
addition of 14,000 tons; Jilin Chemical Fiber Group 's addition of 7,000 tons; Hyosung(China factory)
's addition of 2,500 tons; Sinofiber 's addition of 1,500 tons; Changsheng 's addition of 800 tons, and
Xi'an Carbon Material 's addition of 180 tons.
The precursor statistics of the vast majority of enterprises, just multiply the carbon fiber
production capacity by 2.2 of the estimated data, there are four enterprises in the above chart are
not independent of the supply of precursors, of which, Baojing and Newtech Group are grasping the
construction of their own precursor base, may be put into operation this year, Hyosung imported
precursor from its South Korea's own factory.
In 2023, China's carbon fiber usage has significantly surpassed imports in history, with
imported fibers showing a cliff like decline. Undoubtedly, this is a significant achievement made by
China’s carbon fiber. Just like 2022, we will still use the three category to discuss the new
development of China's carbon fiber industry.
The third category of low-cost industrial application enterprises are represented by Jilin
Chemical Fiber Group, Sinopec Shanghai, Baojing, Bluestar, Runjust(Xinjiang). Jilin Chemical Fiber
Group completed an expansion of 50,000 tons of precursor production in 2023, with a production
The following planned investment projects in the carbon fiber sector were also reported in the
media in 2023, which we summarized below:
In early January, the 6,000 ton/year high-performance carbon fiber project led by Shanxi Antai
Group Co., Ltd. was approved and announced on relevant platforms. According to the
announcement, the main construction content of the project is the 6,000 ton/year high-performance
carbon fiber project, located in Antai Industrial Park, Yi'an Town, Jiexiu City, Jinzhong City. The
project will be implemented in three phases, with the first phase having a construction scale of
2,000 tons;
On February 21st, Wuhai City, Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region held a concentrated
commencement activity for key projects in 2023. Inner Mongolia Wantai Chemical Fiber Group Co.,
Ltd. officially started construction on its annual production of 200,000 tons of PAN based precursor
and 100,000 tons of PAN based high-end carbon fiber projects; The project has an investment of
RMB 11.1 billion and covers a total area of 1,055 acres, which will be constructed in two phases.
The first phase investment is 1.4 billion yuan, with an annual production capacity of 16,000 tons of
carbonization full process production line, 32,000 tons of precursor production line, self owned
power station substation, storage facilities, sewage treatment station, etc. The construction period is
from 2023 to 2025; The second phase investment is 9.7 billion yuan, with an annual production
capacity of 84,000 tons of carbonization full process production line, 168,000 tons of carbon fiber
precursor production line, self owned power station substation, public engineering, etc. The
construction period is from 2025 to 2027;
On March 13th, Anhui Chuangmai held a signing ceremony for the 10,000 ton carbon fiber
project with the government of Nanle County, Puyang, Henan;
On March 26th, Shandong Yongcheng New Materials Co., Ltd. (hereinafter referred to as
"Yongcheng"), a subsidiary of Everrising Holdings, started the 12,000 ton high-performance carbon
fiber project. The project is designed with an annual output of 12,000 tons, a total investment of
RMB 5 billion, and an area of approximately 904 acres. The project will be constructed in two
phases, with one phase planned to be put into operation in 2024;
On July 7th, the first batch of high-performance carbon fiber production equipment of Karamay
Vision New Materials Co., Ltd. in Karamay Hi-tech Zone entered the field, and the project is planned
to build 30,000 tons of precursor and 15,000 tons of carbon fiber;
On November 17, the official website of China Construction Fifth Bureau Shandong Branch
announced that it successfully won the bidding of 120,000 tons/year of acrylonitrile-based fiber
precursor and 60,000 tons/year of carbon fiber production base project in Jining Chemical Industry
Park. According to the planning, the whole construction period of the project is 4 years, and the
annual output of 60,000 tons of carbon fiber products, 10,000 tons of carbon fiber composites, and
120,000 tons of carbon fiber precursor production capacity will be formed eventually, and the
implementation unit is Shandong Jingchang New Material Technology Co;
In November, Shanxi Province released a list of key provincial projects, and the
high-performance large tow carbon fiber intelligent manufacturing project of Sinoma was
prominently listed. According to leaked information online, the project has invested RMB 4.806
billion to build an annual production of 25,000 tons of large tow carbon fiber project;
On December 26th, Jinggong and Donghua Energy (Maoming) Carbon Fiber Co., Ltd.
(hereinafter referred to as "Donghua Energy") signed a Carbon Fiber Equipment Procurement
Contract, with a total contract amount of RMB 550 million. The company will provide spinning and
carbonization line equipment to Donghua Energy in two phases, with the first phase amounting to
RMB 282 million and the second phase amounting to RMB 268 million.
On December 30th, Longyou County held a signing ceremony for the Yunmo Carbon Valley
project with Chautem(Hangzhou). The project includes 6 sub-projects such as a new 10,000-ton
high-performance carbon fiber production line project, a 2,500-ton C/C composite material and
carbon product production line project at the early stage of the project and about 50 industry chain
extension projects at the later stage.
全球树脂基碳纤维复合材料需求(千吨)
Global demand for CFRP(Kilo-ton)
400
350 335
300
250
200 177
150
100
56
50
The demand for CFRP is based on 65% carbon fiber in the composite. It is a scale concept.
2023全球树脂基复合材料需求-应用(千吨)
2023 Global CFRP Demand by Application (Kilo-ton)
Sports Leisure
28.9
16.3%
Wind Blades
30.8
17.4% C/C Composite
Pressure 15.4
Vessels 8.7%
21.5
12.2%
2023全球树脂基复合材料销售收入-应用(10亿美元)
2023 Global CFRP Revenues by Application (Billion US$)
MarineCable Core
Electronic
Construction 0.09 0.05 Other
0.21
0.32 0.4% 0.2% 0.03
0.9%
1.4% 0.1%
Molding &
Compound
0.45
2.0%
Automobile Aerospace
0.54 14.62
2.3% 63.7%
Wind Blades
0.62
2.7%
Pressure Vessels
0.93
4.1%
C/C Composite Sports Leisure
1.50 3.59
6.5% 15.6%
In 2023, the global demand for composite materials is 176.9 kilotons, a decrease of 14.8%
compared to 207.7 kilotons in 2022; The global revenue of carbon fiber composite materials is
$22.96 billion, a decrease of 12.3% compared to $26.21 billion in 2022. Among them, the recovery
in demand and price increase in the aerospace market, while for other applications, not only the
price of carbon fiber is basically decreasing, but the cost and price of its composite materials are
also decreasing, such as C/C composite.
The aerospace market in 2023 will account for 19.1% of total composites volume (14.9% in
2022), but 62.8% of total revenue (46.7% in 2022). Obviously, this market is the highest
value-added market among all applications of carbon fiber, a golden market that all carbon fiber
enterprises aspire to, but also a market with high entry threshold. It is also a territory that
international carbon fiber giants are bound to guard. Each enterprise should make strategic
decisions based on its own situation.
Three years after the COVID-19, the Chinese market has overtaken other international and
regional markets and become the world's largest composite market; In 2023, the international
aerospace market rapidly recovered. In the Chinese application market, C/C composite with high
added value of composite materials were severely reduced in price, and sports equipment was
sluggish. These main factors led the USA to surpass China and become the largest composite
material market.
Throughout the four major composite markets worldwide, Europe, USA, and Japan still have
the highest level of composite materials and applications: In the aerospace market, together with
Japan's materials and composite process, they have formed a closed-loop industrial chain; In the
pressure vessels market represented by hydrogen, Europe, USA and Japan also have deep
cooperation, and well developed application and promotion; In the wind blade market, it still
remains an international leader in the application of carbon fiber; In the market such as automobile
and marine, a large amount of technology and applications have also been accumulated; The
manufacturing of sports leisure applications is not in Europe and USA, but the brands and channels
are mostly under their control.
2023全球树脂基碳纤维复合材料需求-工艺(千吨)
2023 Global demand for CRP by Process(Kilo-Ton)
Other
Vacuum infusion
2.9
Preform 7.5
1.6%
15.4 4.2%
8.7%
RTM Prepreg layup
13.4 58.5
7.6% 33.1%
Molding &
Compound
22.8
12.9%
Pultrusion &
winding
56.5
32.0%
In 2023, the prepreg lay-up process surpassed the pultrusion & winding process, returning to its
position as the industry's largest process. This change is mainly determined by the growth of the
aerospace market and the weakness of the wind blade market.
The traditional process described above is a relatively natural process idea for mankind for a
two-dimensional material such as fiber, with reference to manufacturing thinking in other industrial
areas. However, in the face of vast potential applications, such as wind blade spar caps and
automobile, is the current popular process the most appropriate?Is it optimal? There are serious
question marks here. Especially for automobiles, from the earliest aerospace processes (prepreg
layup) to high-pressure RTM, it has been proven that both processes are unsuitable for small-scale
cars, the main problem being the complexity and the high cost. Especially compare the stamping of
steel plates with the one-time die-casting of aluminum alloy assemblies. Currently and in the coming
years, the global supply and price of carbon fiber can meet the demands of massive applications,
and there is an urgent need for disruptive composite material innovation processes.
2023全球复合材料市场需求-不同基体(10亿美元)
2023 Global demand for composites by Matrix (Bilion US$)
Hybrid
1.23
4.3%
Metal
1.81
6.4% Polymer +
Carbon
22.96
Ceramic 80.8%
2.42
8.5%
This chart is aimed to remind that all of us shouldn’t ignore the composite of other matrixes
besides polymer matrixes and carbon matrixes. These composites are also one part of carbon fiber
composites.
In addition to a large number of matrix materials such as metal, ceramic, cement, aerogel is
also a new matrix, combined with a variety of fiber mat to form a new type of composite. In the field
of carbon fiber, the combination of pre-oxidized felt and silica aerogel is creating a wide application
market space. The combination of carbon fiber felt, graphite felt and carbon aerogel will also
change many applications.
Carbon fiber itself can also be a "matrix", combined its structure and function with carbon
nanotubes and porous nanocarbon to form a "composite" which is likely to provide a revolutionary
innovation for the new energy industry.
In 2023, thermoplastic composites accounted for approximately 25% of the total resin-based
material, amounting to approximately $6.55 billion. The vast majority of these are non-continuous
reinforced plastics, while continuous carbon fiber thermoplastics, which we estimate have a market
share of around $300 million.
In 2023, thermoplastic composites accounted for about 5% of the overall resin-based materials,
amounting to about $1.15 billion. The vast majority of these are discontinuous reinforced plastics,
while continuous carbon fiber thermoplastics, we estimate a market share of around $300 million.
2023中国树脂基碳纤维复合材料需求-应用(吨)
2023 Chinese CFRP Demand by Application (MT)
Aerospace
12,308
11.6%
Wind Blades
Construction
26,154
5,231
24.6%
4.9%
Molding &
Compound Pressure Vessels C/C Composite
6,462 6,615 11,538
6.1% 6.2% 10.9%
Electronic Marine
16 3
Molding & 0.3% Cable Core
1.8%
Automobile Compound 2
26 16 0.2%
2.9% 1.9% Other
Construction 5
21 0.6% Aerospace
2.4% 418
47.8%
Pressure Vessels
26
3.0%
Wind Blades
38
4.4%
In 2023, the total amount of carbon fiber composite materials in China was 106,269 tons, a
decrease of 7.2% compared to 114,506 tons in 2022; This is synchronous with the decrease in
demand for carbon fiber. In 2023, the output value of carbon fiber composite materials in China was
RMB 87.5 billion , mainly due to the comprehensive decline in carbon fiber prices.
7.1. Aerospace
The development trend of market is as follows: The demand for carbon fiber in 2023 was 22,000
tons.
航空航天碳纤维需求-趋势(吨)
Carbon fiber demand in Aerospace-Trend(MT)
70,000
60,000 58,520
50,000
40,000
29,095
30,000
22,000
20,000
10,000
According to the data shown from the Cirium database, Airbus and Boeing delivered 721 and
504 aircraft respectively in 2023. Compared to 2022, Airbus increased by 66 aircraft and Boeing
increased by 54. For composite aircraft, according to Boeing's website information: 73 Boeing 787s
delivered in 2023, a significant increase from 31 in 2022, exceeding the delivery volume of 53 in
2020. However, there is still a gap from the delivery level of over 100 aircraft before the COVID;
According to the Airbus website, 64 A350 aircraft will be delivered in 2023, representing a certain
increase compared to the 60 aircraft delivered in 2022. These data indicate that commercial
aviation is continuing to recover, accelerating in 2023, but still not back to the level of 2019.
In terms of the composite technology route for high-yield aircraft models with a monthly
shipment volume of 60-100 A320 and B737, Europe is mainly promoting the research and
development of large structural components made of thermoplastic composite materials through the
two phases of the CLEAR SKY plan. However, there is still a lot of work to clarify the technical route.
After all, the thermosetting composite aircraft B787 is based on the achievements of more than 40
years of accumulation led by NASA(USA). For details, see the article "NASA Composite Material
Development - Lessons Learned and Future Challenges" published by NASA, which is also
reprinted on the WeChat Official Accounts: ATA-ACIH. Thermoplastic composites also need to
answer similar questions and face similar challenges.
Commercial
Aircraft
8,000
36.4%
UAV
4,000
18.2% Military Aircraft
4,600
20.9%
In the field of commercial aerospace, in recent years, SPACE X has unveiled the mystery to the
aviation technology and rewritten history with disruptive innovations such as recycling, massive
payloads, high efficiency and low cost. Chinese counterparts are also catching up: the large-scale
composite rocket fairing designed by Space Pioneer and developed/produced by istar Space rolls
off recently, with a diameter of 4200mm and a length of about 13m. It adopts the high-precision
molding of all-carbon fiber composite materials, which is the largest composite rocket fairing in
China’s commercial aerospace, and also the China's largest all-carbon fiber composite aerospace
structural component at present.
Source:istar Space
风电叶片碳纤维需求-趋势(吨)
Carbon fiber demand in Wind blade-Trend (MT)
45,000
42,598
40,000
35,000
30,000
25,000
20,000
20,000
15,000
10,000
5,000
In 2023, according to public data from China's National Energy Administration (NEA): the
country added 75.9 million kW of wind power hoisting capacity last year, setting a new historical
high. International wind power giants have also released their annual reports, excerpted information
is as follows:
Vestas achieved a revenue of 15.382 billion euros and a gross profit of 1.283 billion euros in
2023, finally turning losses into profits. In 2023, Vestas delivered 12.7GW of wind turbines, including
11.7GW of onshore wind turbines and 1GW of offshore wind turbines; Newly added orders of
18.4GW, onshore wind turbines of 15.3GW, and offshore wind turbines of 3.1GW. GE Renewable
Energy suffered a loss of $1.4 billion in 2023, which narrowed compared to a loss of $2.2 billion in
2022. At the same time, its revenue reached $15.05 billion, a year-on-year increase of 16%;
Siemens Gamesa's latest disclosure of preliminary estimates show that the first quarter of the fiscal
year 2024 revenues of 2.043 billion euros, an increase of 4.8% year-on-year. However, overall the
company is still in a serious loss, pre-tax cash flow of negative 1.172 billion euros; Nordex Group
announced the results of the data show that the company's 2023 order revenue reached 6.5 billion
euros, compared with 5.7 billion euros in 2022 the same rose significantly, the overall has reached
break-even.
In terms of carbon fiber usage, there is a 42% decrease from 20,000 tons in 2023 to 34,700
tons in 2022. The main reason is that under the pressure of international manufacturers to reduce
costs and turn losses, the application of carbon fiber has been reduced. And China's domestic
application of carbon fiber is far lower than expected, with a usage of approximately 6,000 tons.
Chinese wind power manufacturers are also facing enormous cost pressures, as well as a
significant decrease in the price of glass fiber, which has weakened the competitive advantage of
carbon fiber in terms of cost-effectiveness in wind power.
The development of demand for sports leisure market over the past decade is shown as below:
the demand in 2023 was 18,800 tons. Compared to 2022, it increased by 21.7%.
体育休闲碳纤维需求-趋势(吨)
Carbon fiber demand in Sports/leisure-Trend (MT)
45,000
40,042
40,000
35,000
30,000
24,863
25,000
20,000 18,800
15,000
10,000
4,600
5,000
The sports leisure market experienced a significant decline in 2023, the main reasons are two:
on the demand side, the disruption of international shipping and export systems caused by the
COVID has led to an increase in inventory in overseas markets, which needs to be digested in 2023;
on the supply side, the first few years of carbon fiber prices have risen all the way up and the supply
is tight, a lot of manufacturers have to increase inventory, which also needs to be digested in 2023.
压力容器碳纤维需求-趋势(吨)
Carbon fiber demand in Pressure vessels-Trend (MT)
46,071
18,515
14,000
1,025
Carbon fiber gas cylinders are mainly classified as breathing gas cylinders, CNG gas cylinders,
hydrogen gas cylinders, and tube trailer cylinders. Tube trailers are suitable for CNG and hydrogen
cylinders. Due to the insufficient of refueling infrastructure, CNG cylinders and hydrogen cylinders
are currently mainly used in heavy trucks, logistics vehicles and public transportation buses on fixed
routes. The current trend for hydrogen cylinders used in passenger cars is not yet clear.
The main force of global gas cylinders is still in Europe and USA, the main manufacturers are
as follows: Luxfer、Faurecia(Forvia),Hanwha Cimmaron,Hexagon Composites,Hexagon-Purus,Iljin
Hysolus,NPROXX,Plastic Omnium,Toyota,Toyoda Gosei, etc. Chinese main manufacturers are as
follows: Sinoma Cylinder, Tianhai Industry, CTC Tank, CIMC ENRIC, GUOFUHEE, CIMC ENRIC
Nantong, CFPC, Zhejiang Rein, FTXT Energy, Anhui Clean Energy, AUYAN, Faurecia Silinda,
Liaoning Metal, Shenyang zhongfu kejin and Alsafe, etc.
碳碳复材碳纤维需求-趋势(吨)
Carbon fiber demand in C/C-Trend (MT)
25,000
21,436
20,000
15,000
12,100
10,000
10,000
5,000
608
0
Brake disc
Main international enterprises are: Messier-bugatti (France), Honeywell ( USA), B.F. Goodrich,
Goodyer, and Dunlop(UK).
Main domestic enterprises are Beimo Gaoke, Xi 'an brake branch of Avic Aircraft, Boyun New
Materials, Xi’an Chaoma and KBC Carbon etc.This market is growing steadily.
Aero parts
Main enterprises are domestic related institutes of aerospace. C/C composite becomes the
priority material for throat lining, nozzle and diffusion section of motor, end cap of the giant solid
rocket due to its high performance. This market is growing steadily.
Carbon Felt
For statistical purposes, we include carbon felts in this market. We have included carbon felt
functional materials in this C/C composite material market, and currently the largest amount of
carbon felt is used formonocrystalline silicon furnace. In the field of energy storage, carbon fiber
also has enormous application potential and is continuously expanding.
In 2023, according to data from the National Energy Administration, as of the end of December
2023, the cumulative installed capacity of solar power generation in China reached 610 million
kilowatts. In 2023, the newly installed capacity of photovoltaics reached 216.88GW, a year-on-year
increase of 148%, reaching a historic high. In the same year, the prices of the photovoltaic industry
chain continued to decline, and price competition also spread to thermal materials. The industry has
achieved the lowest cost of carbon carbon composite materials in human history (about 200
yuan/kg), with carbon fiber and densification costs accounting for half each.
混配模成型碳纤维需求-趋势(吨)
Carbon fiber demand in Molding & compound-Trend(MT)
30,000
24,866
25,000
20,000
15,440
15,000
11,600
10,000
5,000 3,440
Strictly speaking, the molding & compound is not an application but a description of process.
But because it covers a wide range of application, we summarize it as an application in order to
articulate it more clearly. Compound mainly refers to discontinuous carbon fiber reinforced plastics
including short-cut reinforced and long fiber thermoplastic (LFT). Glass fiber D-LFT widely applied in
the automobile field proves the advantage of this type of composites. Molding mainly refers to Sheet
Molding Compound-SMC and Bulk Molding Compound-BMC. Thanks to the addition of recycled
carbon fiber, there is a certain development space for the discontinuous fiber structure and mixed
structure of discontinuous and continuous fibers.
Those enterprises engaged in short-cut carbon fiber reinforced plastics normally are modified
plastic companies, such as SABIC, RTP, POLYONE, COMPTEX, POLYNT, Shenzhen VOIT and
Kingfa Technology, etc. Major enterprises engaged in carbon fiber sheet molding plastics: Quantum,
MAGANA, Ashland, Continental Structural Plastics(U.S.), and MENZOLIT (Germany), etc.
In 2023, Nantong Fuyuan New Materials used recycled carbon fibers to prepare "millet"
chopped fibers, which were successfully applied to automotive reinforced plastic parts. Industrial
applications represented by automobiles have very strict requirements for material
cost-effectiveness. For many years, the author has a viewpoint that for the large-scale application of
carbon fiber in automobiles, at the current level of technology, continuous carbon fiber composite
materials do not have the opportunity, and efforts must be made on discontinuous fiber reinforced
materials, especially short cut reinforced plastics, in order to compete with current glass fiber and
Chopped carbon fiber reinforced plastics are closely related to fibers, slurries, blending, and
injection molding techniques, and require optimal solutions in terms of fiber retention length,
dispersion, and flowability. For conventional low-cost fibers, it is possible to achieve excellent
performance with both tensile strength and flexural strength exceeding 400MPa, flexural modulus
exceeding 25GPa, and a bulk density of less than 1.3g/cm^3. Capable of competing with fiberglass
and aluminum alloys on the same platform.
汽车碳纤维需求-趋势(吨)
Carbon fiber demand in Auto-Trend(MT)
35,000
30,000 29,061
25,000
20,000
14,448
15,000
9,500
10,000
5,000
The market demand for 2023 is 9,500 tons, which is on par with 2022, mainly considering two
aspects: firstly, the composite material vehicles i3 and i8, which BMW collaborated with SGL, have
been discontinued in recent years, resulting in a decrease in carbon fiber usage; On the other hand,
in addition to traditional ultra luxury cars and modification markets, new energy vehicles have also
launched luxury models, which has driven an increase in carbon fiber usage. But overall, for small
batches of ultra luxury cars (whether fuel or new energy), using carbon fiber composites is an
inevitable choice because the overall cost is cheaper than sheet metal technology. For
mass-produced car models, the application prospects of carbon fiber in the automotive industry are
not very clear.
Lightweight - is important for both fuel powered and new energy vehicles, which is beyond
doubt. However, the cost control of mass-produced cars is strict, and there is no significant
lightweight benefit (cost per kilogram of weight reduction), so car manufacturers naturally choose
traditional materials. If carbon fiber composite materials are to be used, as we mentioned earlier,
the first thing to consider is short cut carbon fiber reinforced plastics. We can roughly calculate that
the cost of low-cost carbon fiber with 30% fiber content is 21-24 yuan, the cost of 70% nylon is
14-17 yuan, and the material cost is 35-41 yuan/kg. In terms of processing, the traditional method is
to mix and granulate and inject (with high cost), and of course, online mixing and direct injection
(with reference to injection cost) can also be used. In this way, the cost of parts is expected to be
controlled at 40-46 yuan/kg. The cost of aluminum alloy parts is approximately 23-25 yuan/kg. If the
same performance of 6 series aluminum alloys is achieved, the composite material can achieve a
weight reduction of 32.6%. Due to weight reduction, the corresponding cost of parts is reduced by
The hotspot for unsprung weight reduction in automobiles is wheels, with major international
manufacturers including Carbon Revolution(Australia), Bucci(Italy), Vision Wheel(USA), and ESE
Carbon. On the Chinese side, luxury new energy vehicles are currently or are planning to adopt
carbon fiber wheels, such as the GAC Aion Hyper SSR, NIO's all-new ES6, HiPhi A, BYD
Yangwang U8, and so on. There are already several companies in China that have developed
carbon fiber wheels, but none have formed large-scale capabilities.
建筑碳纤维需求-趋势(吨)
Carbon fiber demand in Construction-Trend (MT)
12,000
10,075
10,000
8,000
6,256
6,000
4,700
4,000
2,000
800
There is a wide meaning in this field, not only including the construction with a normal meaning,
but also including the construction machinery, bridge, sea/river embankment, tunnel and industrial
pipes. The application of composites are mainly in the following fields: 1. The reinforcement of
construction and bridge structure; 2. The major structure of artistic-type construction; 3. The
construction machinery; 4. The newly-built large-span/space structure; 5.The reinforcement of
pipes.
In 2023, the overall price of the construction industry will decline, but in the context of urban
renewal, the market for structural reinforcement and reinforcement is relatively stable, and the
demand for carbon fiber reinforcement materials is basically the same as the previous year. At
present, carbon fiber reinforcement materials have fully entered the era of localization. In addition to
Forrisio, Sika, and Fischer,and a few other international brands for sale in the Chinese market, most
of the carbon fiber reinforcement materials market is occupied by Horse Construction and other
national brands. At the same time, in order to avoid the phenomenon of cutting corners and shoddy
materials, various regions have implemented reinforcement material filing to ensure project safety.
In the international market, Chinese brands represented by Horse Construction have also gained
recognition from the global reinforcement industry for their stable product quality and high
cost-effectiveness.
In terms of products, in addition to the traditional unidirectional carbon fiber fabrics,
pre-stressed carbon fiber boards, pre-stressed carbon fiber tendons, carbon fiber ropes and other
related products with its excellent reinforcing effect, and gradually in the road/bridge, housing
construction, tower and other structural reinforcement projects. With the further improvement of
product performance and the reduction of raw material cost, carbon fiber materials will gain broader
application space in the fields of structural reinforcement and marine engineering.
电子电气碳纤维需求-趋势(吨)
Carbon fiber demand in Electonics-Trend (MT)
5,000
4,500 4,287
4,000
3,500
3,000 2,662
2,500 2,200
2,000
1,500
1,000
500 348
First in the functional application field: there are functions such as anti-static electricity and
electromagnetic shielding in the chopped carbon fiber reinforced plastic which has been used in
copier, printer, digital camera, data transmission cable connector and other products for a long time.
Compared with other similar materials such as carbon black, metal, etc., the reduction of CFRP cost
will bring the stable expansion of this market.
In the aspect of mechanical reinforcement: the main product forms are long carbon fiber
reinforced plastics (LFT) and continuous carbon fiber reinforced materials. Continuous carbon fiber
reinforced materials are mainly used in the light notebook case, including the thermoset case of
traditional process and thermoplastic case.
In the field of foldable smartphones, Shenzhen Yutong New Materials focuses on the application
of large foldable, high modulus, and lightweight carbon fiber materials. Among them, the integrated
PEEK injection molding of hinge door panels, multi fold flexible screen support, and the conductive
and heat dissipation application of fiberglass battery covers and middle frames have been verified
and applied on a large scale in cooperation with multiple domestic and foreign terminal
manufacturers, and have a certain degree of industry-leading technological scale; We have reached
a leading position in the industry of high grade ultra-thin, low weight carbon fiber yarn spreading and
pre impregnated material automation molding, as well as high-power automated laser precision
processing. We have optimized and expanded our new processing technology for composite
structures, and achieved high-quality reliability in terms of appearance, flatness, and foldable
lifespan of carbon fibers. Strict modulus requirements have been put forward for the performance of
raw materials, achieving further ultra-thin industry applications by reducing the thickness and weight
Composite materials for LCD: Guangzhou Xujing Advanced Materials develops and
manufactures Cassette's BS and Robot Fork, with end customers including BOE, Huaxing
Optoelectronics, Tianma Microelectronics, Wisers Group, Guangzhou Ultravision Sakai, Visono,
and other mechanical and automation equipment companies in Japan, South Korea, and China's
Taiwan, such as Japan Sankyo, Yaskawa, and South Korea Hyundai...etc. As of January 2024, the
number of shipments has reached 1 million pcs. There are other robotics companies in Japan,
Korea, and Taiwan, such as Sankyo, Yaskawa, and Hyundai, etc. As of January 2024, the number
of units shipped has reached more than one million.
In the field of high-speed motors, the increasingly high rotational speed has made the carbon
fiber sheath has become the standard. Through ten years' accumulation of technology research and
development, ATA CFT Guangzhou CO.,LTD has provided the industry with a full set of solutions
in various aspects, such as material, high-tension and high-precision winding, ultra-high preloading,
efficient curing, and production automation.
船舶碳纤维需求-趋势(吨)
Carbon fiber demand in Marine-Trend (MT)
4,000
3,430
3,500
3,000
2,500
2,130
2,000
1,600
1,500
1,000
477
500
Currently, the demand in marine field for carbon fiber mainly comes from: racing ships, super
luxury yachts, high-speed passenger boats and military vessels. In addition to racing ships, for
many years,electric hydrofoil ships, water taxis and high-speed passenger boats has adopted the
carbon fiber composites which has formed a new growth hot spot.
On June 13, 2023, Artemis technologies(Belfast,Ireland) has unveiled its first electric crew
transfer pontoon (CTV) and sub-vessel, the Artemis EF-12 CTV, demonstrating its ability to serve
the offshore wind farm sector. The vessel is made of glass and carbon fiber composites, enabling
higher speeds and longer ranges.
In November 2023, China Classification Society (CCS) Wuhan Branch issued the first certificate
of approval for cryogenic expansion joints and carbon fiber materials in China for China
Shipbuilding Group Corporation's (CSGC) 725th Research Institute ("725").
On November 9, 2023, a ceremony was held in Nansha, Guangzhou for the construction of the
first 500-passenger carbon fiber high-speed passenger vessel "New Pearl 2" (SN004) for the New
Ferry Outlying Islands Project in Hong Kong, China, by Guangdong Zhongwei Composites, a
subsidiary of Zhujiang Shipyard. The project includes a number of aluminum alloy vessels and
carbon fiber vessels, which are expected to be delivered by 2025.
芯材碳纤维需求-趋势(吨)
Carbon fiber demand in CCR-Trend (MT)
2,500
1,949
2,000
1,500
1,210
1,000
1,000
500
261
Starting from 2022, we changed the name of this submarket from "cable core" to "core", which
mainly added various types of carbon fiber cores used in construction. As the quantity is not enough
and the process is similar to cable cores, we will display and classify it here. The global demand we
have calculated for 2023 is 1,000 tons, with slow growth. In terms of cable cores, according to
internal industry statistics, it is estimated to be only around 400 tons. Adding building core materials
results in a quantity of 1,000 tons. There are not many highlights of cable cores in China in 2023,
but still there are a few worth mentioning:
Guangdong Xinyuan Hengye, mainly produces stranded carbon fiber conductors and ropes,
which are successfully used in a national defense project of 3.3 km 50 mm super heavy ice on the
big spanning project. It is the world's largest spanning and thickest tracking ice project; it was
successfully installed on the 400kV line sent to Hong Kong from Daya Bay Nuclear Power Station in
2022.
Internationally, by reading the official website of CTC Company(USA), relaying the following
three pieces of information:
2023.3.10 CTC Global signed an agreement licensing Ducab Metals to manufacture ACCC®
composite core conductors in the UAE;
2023.7.17 CTC announced the construction of the fifth ACCC in India ® Core manufacturing
factory;
2023.11.2 CTC Global announced an upgrade to ACCC InfoCore ® The system enables quick
and simple confirmation of wire integrity before, during, and at any time after installation.
In April 2023, China Construction Eighth Engineering Bureau held an expert consultation
meeting on the application of all carbon fiber cables for the Wuhan Optics Valley Eighth Road
project's special-shaped cable-stayed bridge. The expert group believes that the overall plan is
feasible, and the completion of the project will achieve the landing of the world's first all carbon fiber
cable stayed bridge.
Rail Transit
In September 2023, the world's first hydrogen energy smart rail electric vehicle developed by
CRRC Zhuzhou Electric Locomotive Research Institute Co., Ltd. officially made its debut in
Malaysia. The vehicle innovatively adopts a 70MPa hydrogen storage system and a high-power fuel
cell system, with a range of over 350 kilometers.
In 2023, CRRC Tangshan Locomotive Company and Cedar Composites Technology jointly
optimized and developed the advanced structural bogie carbon fiber side beam (Figure 1) project.
The carbon fiber side beams of advanced structural bogies reduce weight by 80% compared to
traditional steel plate welded side beams, providing support for weight reduction, energy
conservation, and cost reduction of bogies.
Figure 1 Advanced Structure Bogie Carbon Fiber Side Beam Source: Cedar
In 2023, multiple host manufacturers collaborated with Cedar to develop multiple subway
vehicle driver cabins (Figure 2); The next generation high-speed rail bogie cabin (Figure 3) and
other carbon fiber composite component projects are all based on efficient, low-cost, integrated hot
pressing and liquid forming technologies. Through a combination of structural design optimization
and component level process verification, the integrated forming of the main structure of the
composite material is achieved, reducing the complexity of component assembly and effectively
improving the manufacturing efficiency and product stability and consistency of typical components.
The low-cost integrated hot pressing and liquid molding process provides solution ideas for the
mass application of carbon fiber composite parts of the same type of structure in rail transit
components.
Comprehensive analysis of the current application situation, although the application of carbon
fiber composites in the field of rail transit from the realization of large-scale industrial production is
still a certain distance, but with the mature development of China's upstream and downstream
carbon fiber composite material industry, raw materials and process manufacturing costs have
dropped significantly, will accelerate the promotion of rail transit vehicles carbon fiber composite
material engineering application process, so that the advanced composite materials have become
the vehicle primary / secondary Carrying structural materials of choice for intergenerational
replacement.
Main functional applications of carbon fiber include not only traditional flame retardant
materials: pre-oxygen wire and pre-oxygen felt , but also traditional thermal field materials such as
In 2023, Liquid Flow Batteries continued to grow at a high rate, according to a report by
Leadleo Research: the historical market size of Liquid Flow Batteries grew at a CAGR of 55.2%
from 2018-2021, with a market size of 1.06 billion RMB in 2022, and is projected to reach 24.89
billion RMB in 2027, and the market size of the market may grow at a CAGR of 87.9% from
2022-2027 .
Recycled carbon fiber comes from two types of waste, one is from "dry fiber", which is carbon
fiber that has not been impregnated with resin, such as broken and and disordered fibers, starting
and ending fibers, fabric cutting scraps/tails, carbon fiber and other related products. The first three
types account for 0.5-2.0% of the total production usage, and vary according to the production
stability and grade classification standards of carbon fiber manufacturers. The recycled carbon fiber
derived from "dry fiber" is called "reused carbon fiber".
Another type is "wet fiber", which are carbon fibers impregnated with resin, such as
cured/uncured waste prepregs and CFRP manufacturing scraps generated during the production
stage (accounting for 25%~30%), and End-of-life (EOL) CFRP waste. The recycled carbon fiber
derived from "dry fiber" is called "recycled carbon fiber".
The waste generated during the production process is currently being recycled, while EOL will
be recycled several years later. Regardless of when it is recycled, overall, the market for new
carbon fibers is as large as the market for recycled carbon fibers in the future. If there are two or
three more cycles of recycling, the market for recycling carbon fiber will increase by two or three
times. Research has shown that carbon fiber can be recycled 6-7 times and still have reuse value.
The sources of CFRP waste are aerospace, sports equipment, prepreg waste, and a large number
of industrial applications such as carbon beams and gas cylinders, which are not the main sources
due to their low production and manufacturing defect rates. At present, less than 1% of global CFRP
recycling and reuse is carried out, while the rest is either buried, incinerated, or put on hold.
As of 2023, the main global CFRP recycling and processing companies are as follows:
Asia: Nantong Fuyuan Carbon Fiber Recycling CO., LTD (China, 4,500 tons/year of pyrolysis),
Shanghai Zhishi Alloy (pyrolysis), Uht Unitech (Taiwan,50 tons/year of microwave pyrolysis), and
Thermolysis Co., Ltd. (Taiwan, microwave pyrolysis); CFRI (Japan, two-step pyrolysis method,
3,000 tons/year), Ai carbon(dissolution), Shinryo Corporation (200 tons/year of superheated steam),
Gaoan (60 tons/year of pyrolysis), Fuji Design(360 tons/year of pyrolysis), Earthcycle(20 tons/year
of dissolution); CATACKH (Korea, dissolved). In June 2023, Nantong FUY expanded its Phase II
factory, forming a total annual recycling and processing capacity of 4,500 tons with Phase I. In
December, Nantong Fuy built a 1,000 ton recycled chopped carbon fiber production line.
Europe: CarboNXT&CFK (Germany, pyrolysis), SGL Carbon (pyrolysis), HADEG Recycling
(pyrolysis); Gen2Carbon (UK, original ELG pyrolysis) and Sigmatex (dry fiber only); Vetrotex
(France, dissolution), Fairmat (mechanical method); KARBOPEK (Italy, pyrolysis).
USA: Carbon Conversions(CCI, 2,500 tons/year pyrolysis), Adherent Technologies(pyrolysis
and dissolution), Vartega(dissolution), Shocker Composite(dissolution), Carbon Fiber
Reuse market
The main product forms for recycling carbon fiber include recycled carbon fiber felt
(non-woven felt and surface felt), recycled chopped fiber, and recycled fiber powder. Sorted by
usage, they are chopped carbon fiber, powder, and felt. Chopped carbon fiber and powder are
mainly used in the field of polymer. In 2023, the cumulative global usage reached thousands of tons,
and the application of recycled carbon fiber felt reached hundreds of tons. Companies that can
provide stable recycled carbon fiber products include CCI, Zoltek, Nantong Fuy, CarboNXT, and
Sigmatex.
The main application areas of recycled carbon fiber are aerospace interiors, sports,
automotive components, advanced air mobility components, construction industry, drones, additive
manufacturing, electrical and electronic equipment casings, and other industrial applications. In
February 2023, Recaro(Germany) developed a racing seat shell made of recycled carbon fiber felt
(produced by US-based company CCI) and plans to put it into production in the first half of the year;
In March 2023, the recycled carbon fiber laptop case A developed by Bromake and Nantong FUY
passed customer verification; In June 2023, TFP launched a regenerated carbon surface felt
product, and in October 2023, Nantong FUY Regenerated chopped Carbon Fiber Product began
to be used in the production and manufacturing of components for a certain new energy vehicle
mass production model; In December 2023, Toray announced that the Lenovo ThinkPad X1 Carbon
Gen laptop case will use recycled carbon fiber from Boeing CFRP waste. HRC has developed
recycled carbon fiber building templates and automotive components, and has obtained carbon
emission accounting certification.
Due to the discontinuity and differences in mechanical and surface properties of recycled
carbon fibers, their application scenarios are completely different from those of new carbon fibers.
At present, the market for recycling carbon fibers is still far less than the annual waste volume of
tens of thousands of tons, and new application markets urgently need to be developed. The new
direction of CFRP recycling also includes the recycling and reuse of thermoplastic carbon fiber
composite materials, C/C composite materials, the development of degradable epoxy resin, and so
on. For example, Swancor has developed degradable epoxy resin and attempted to apply it on wind
turbine blades.
20 Years of trials and hardships in Carbon Fiber Recycling and Reuse Industry
Industrial development has a high degree of similarity. Just like the development of the carbon
fiber, which has gone through changes from emphasizing carbon fiber production technology to
emphasizing the application technology of carbon fiber composite materials, the development of the
carbon fiber recycling and reuse industry is also shifting from focusing on carbon fiber recycling
technology in the first stage to focusing on the reuse technology of recycled carbon fibers in the
current stage (secondary manufacturing CFRP technology). These technologies include RCF
semi-finished product processing and manufacturing technology, RCF composite material design
technology, development of forming and processing technology and related automation equipment,
and many important issues that urgently need to be solved, such as how to standardize RCF
products. There is still a long way to go.
The official website of the European Parliament announced in May 2023 the establishment of
the Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM, also known as "Carbon Tariff"), which clarifies
its scope of collection, emission calculation, declaration requirements, rights and responsibilities of
all parties, compliance rules and procedures, and takes effect on the day after its announcement. In
September, the European Commission passed and announced the implementation rules for the
transitional period of the EU carbon border regulation mechanism. This regulation will take effect
from October 1st and will continue until the end of 2025. According to the plan, after the transition
period ends, carbon tariffs will be officially imposed in 2026 and fully implemented before 2034. At
that time, the European Union will become the first economy in the world to start imposing carbon
tariffs. These emerging international dual carbon situations should be highly valued by the entire
industry. The main measures for energy conservation and emission reduction in the carbon fiber
industry include the following:
1.The extensive application of CF has major significance in "energy conservation and emission
reduction"
The preparation of carbon fiber itself is characterized by high consumption and high emissions,
and its application has significant implications for energy conservation and emission reduction.
There is data in the 2022 market report, so it will not be repeated in this report.
For enterprises other than CF producers: (1) reduce the CO2 emission coefficient for
purchasing electricity (for each power company); (2) Zero emission of system power supply; (3)
Reduce CO2 emissions from raw material AN production and manufacturing; (4) The development
of carbon dioxide capture, storage, and utilization technologies.
3.Promote the recycling and utilization of carbon fibers, and improve the utilization rate of
recycled carbon fibers
ESG stands for Environmental, Social, and Governance. The disclosure of environmental,
social, and governance data by the company enhances transparency towards stakeholders, helps
to reduce risks and identify opportunities. ESG is an indicator of a company's long-term success
potential and has become a key factor that investors rely on to establish sustainable investment
portfolios. Environment: including issues such as climate change, biodiversity, effective utilization of
water resources, energy utilization, carbon emission intensity, and environmental governance
systems. Society: including issues such as equal opportunities, freedom of association, health and
safety, human rights, customer&product responsibility, and child labor. Governance: topics such as
business ethics, compliance, board independence, executive compensation, and shareholder
democracy.
ESG has very practical significance for carbon fiber enterprises. Currently, global carbon fiber
is still in a state of "high energy and high emissions". The main theme of industry technological
progress is to reduce costs through "energy conservation and emission reduction". The dual carbon
requirements also require the pursuit of green in the selection of various resources. These
requirements complement the internal driving force of the industry and are worthy of certification
and improvement by every enterprise. In terms of society, the production process of carbon fiber
poses certain risks. Ensuring employee safety is not only a social responsibility, but also a type of
technology, such as prevention technology for oxidation furnace fires. Carbon fiber itself has little
use and can only benefit society by being converted into composite materials. Therefore, it involves
the issue of cooperation with multiple units in society. How to form greater benefits through
professional cooperation, rather than mutual blame and vicious competition leading to common
poverty, is an urgent issue for our generation of entrepreneurs to improve their industrial civilization
quality. The rampant trampling and malicious poaching of intellectual property rights, personal moral
differences being despised by society, and corporate moral differences being praised as capable
and wolf like cultures? How to combine personal ethics with corporate business ethics? Use
"competence and wolf culture" more to polish one's own technology and product quality, rather than
deceiving and calculating people. By carefully sorting and executing ESG, it can contribute value to
creating a healthy competitive industry and ecological order.
As mentioned in the preface, 2023 marks the first decline in market demand since 1995. Among
them, there has been a decrease in demand due to the operating losses of international wind power
giants in the past few years; There are also reasons for the disruption of international trade and
shipping caused by the COVID-19 pandemic, resulting in the digestion of inventory in the first two
years of 2023, such as the demand for sports equipment being divided into different markets; In
addition, the shortage of international carbon fiber supply in the first three years has led to a bullish
market for applications, resulting in a large amount of inventory. In 2023, the supply has increased
significantly, and these enterprises have reduced their inventory in 2023, resulting in a decrease in
current demand. For example, the demand for pressure vessels is divided into different markets.
What is the market and industry future like?
In the past 20 years, with the rapid development of the carbon fiber industry, we can no longer
judge the entire industry with vague concepts. Therefore, using the classification of our 2022 report,
we classify the carbon fiber industry into three categories: the first category is aerospace and
military application enterprises, the second category is high-performance industrial application
enterprises, and the third category is large tow fiber industrial application enterprises. Once again,
this classification is relatively rough, mainly based on the current preparation technology, main
products, and application market of the enterprise. The development of the enterprise is dynamic,
and the market is also changing. This classification will also be adjusted and optimized accordingly.
The first category of aerospace military application enterprises mainly target the
aerospace weapons, marine and nuclear military product markets, as well as commercial
aerospace, general aviation and other markets. (Note: For civil aviation, aerospace, and general
aviation, although the price of carbon fiber is a market competition, material identification under
airworthiness certification requirements requires long-term accumulation. This threshold is similar to
the military market, so we have adjusted this market to the first category this year.). Represented by
Guangwei, Sinofibers, and TISCO, also including some production capacity of Zhongfu Shenying
and Hengshen, Yangzhou Base of Coal Chemical Institute, Xi'an Carbon, Henan Yongmei, CNPC
Jilin Chemical, Jiyan High tech, and Jilin Shenzhou, etc. The fiber varieties produced, except for top
varieties represented by carbon fibers such as T1100, IM10, and M60J, have all been or are
currently achieving industrial mass production, basically solving the production problem. This type
of enterprise ensures national military security, and its primary focus is on performance and
ultra-high quality stability. It should also pay special attention to the risk of high user
concentration, and of course, pursue low cost, but the urgency is far less than the latter two types of
enterprises. The focus of this type of enterprise is to fill the gap, stabilize quality and increase
efficiency, and reduce costs!
The quarterly reports of the two leading listed companies in this category are excerpted as
Internationally, Toray and Toho from Japan are representatives, while Hexcel and Solvay
(formerly Cytec) from the USA are representatives, and they are the main suppliers of international
commercial aviation and aerospace. In terms of military products, the main suppliers of military
products in the United States are local enterprises. Japan's military industry is limited and its
development space is limited. However, three Japanese companies, Toray, Toho and Mitsubishi,
have partially participated in the construction of their own and European and American military
industries, actively strengthening local production capacity construction in Europe and America.
The excerpt from the annual report data of Hexcel, the leading listed company in this category
is as follows: In 2023, the sales revenue was $1.789 billion, an increase of 13.4% compared to 2022,
and the gross profit margin was 24.2%. Among them: Commercial aviation business: Sales revenue
was 1.0682 billion US dollars, a year-on-year increase of 17.2%; Space and Defense: Sales of
544.8 million US dollars, a year-on-year increase of 17.1%; Industrial sector: Sales revenue was
176 million US dollars, a year-on-year decrease of 12.3%; In the fourth quarter of 2023, the
company achieved sales of $457.5 million, a year-on-year increase of 6.5%, and a gross profit
margin of 22.5%. Among them, in terms of commercial aviation business, the sales revenue was
267.5 million US dollars, a year-on-year increase of 4.4%; Space and Defense Business: Sales
revenue was 152.3 million US dollars, a year-on-year increase of 20.4%; Industrial business: Sales
revenue was $37.7 million, a year-on-year decrease of 19.3%.
According to the official website of Toray, on January 29, 2024, the $15 million upgraded
TorayCA T1100 carbon fiber production capacity doubling project was launched at a factory in
Decatur, Alabama, USA. The event was attended by the US Department of Defense and members
of Congress. According to TCMA, this type of carbon fiber material is a key component of multiple
weapons systems of the US Department of Defense, as well as a structural application for future
vertical lifting (Future platform).
The quarterly report data of this category of domestic leading enterprise is excerpted as follows:
According to the performance report released by Zhongfu Shenying, its operating revenue in 2023
reached 2.256 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 13.12%, and the net profit attributable to the
owner of the parent company was 317 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 47.57%. According
to the performance report, the revenue scale of Zhongfu Shenying exceeded 2 billion yuan for the
first time in 2023. Meanwhile, thanks to the completion of the Xining Phase II project and the
investment and construction of the Lianyungang 30,000 ton project, the total assets of Zhongfu
Shenying increased by 31.55% year-on-year at the end of 2023.
The quarterly report excerpt of this type of international leading enterprise is as follows:
Toray(Japan) announced its consolidated operating results for the first three quarters (first nine
months) of the fiscal year 2023 (April 1, 2023- March 31, 2024) ending on December 31, 2023. The
total sales of Toray Corporation in the first three quarters of the fiscal year 2023 reached 1.83 trillion
yen, a decrease of 3.8% compared to the same period in 2022. Due to weak demand from the
industrial sector, the carbon fiber composite materials business unit's overall revenue was 209.3
billion yen, a slight decrease of 0.9% year-on-year.
According to the data reported on the website (www.jp. gdfreak. com) on "Japan's Carbon Fiber
Production, Shipment, and Unit Price Trends", in 2023, Japan's domestic carbon fiber production
decreased by 14.2%, sales decreased by 32.9%, and factory sales prices continued to rise by
46.2%.
The third category of low-cost industrial application enterprises mainly targets wind
turbine blades, new energy vehicles, rail transit, conventional sports equipment, conventional
thermal field materials, new functional materials, etc. Represented by Jilin Chemical Fiber, Baojing,
The quarterly report data of enterprises under Jilin Chemical Fiber Group, a leading domestic
enterprise in this category, is excerpted as follows: Jilin Tangu (836077) released its 2023 annual
performance report, which showed that the total operating revenue in 2023 was 2.049 billion yuan,
a decrease of 1.65% compared to the same period last year; The net profit attributable to
shareholders of the listed company was 241 million yuan, a decrease of 61.72% compared to the
same period last year. The year-on-year decline in performance is mainly due to the complex
internal and external environment, resulting in lower than expected demand for carbon fiber and a
significant drop in carbon fiber prices.
Internationally, representatives of the third type of low-cost industrial application enterprises are:
Zoltek under Toray, SGL(Germany), Mitsubishi(Japan), and the large tow part of Toho. In addition to
Zoltek, we referred to the other three as "incomplete large tow enterprises" in last year's report,
referring to their lack of low-cost pan fiber technology supported by the acrylic fiber industry.
Compared to Zoltek, Jilin Chemical Fiber, and Shanghai Petrochemical, the development of large
tow is worrying.
At the beginning of this year, SGL website reported that SGL Carbon's financial report for the
first three quarters of 2023 showed that the sales revenue of the carbon fiber business unit was
179.6 million euros, a year-on-year decrease of 33.2%; After adjustment, EBITDA was 3.2 million
euros, a decrease of up to 92.5%. There are two main reasons for poor performance: the expiration
of the supply contract with BMW led to a decrease in its automotive terminal market share from
34.0% to 27.0%; The cooling of the wind power industry in Germany and Europe has led to weak
demand, resulting in overcapacity. So, the company is currently evaluating various strategic options
for the carbon fiber business unit, including the possibility of divesting some or all of the carbon fiber
business units.
In addition, we have not yet seen the financial data of Zoltek, but from Toray's overall financial
report, it is clear that despite significant growth in commercial aviation (Toray's core business), the
shipment of composite aircraft B787 increased by 135.5% compared to last year, and the main
material supplier is Toray. Moreover, the carbon fiber prices of the entire Japanese carbon fiber
company increased by 46.2% in 2023, but Toray's carbon fiber composite material sector still
showed negative growth. It can be guessed that its performance in 2023 was poor. In addition,
Zoltek's carbon fiber production base is located in Hungary and Mexico. Due to the high energy
prices caused by Russia-Ukraine conflict, Hungary is bound to significantly increase its costs, and
profits should also decline significantly.
The impact of the COVID-19 pandemic will gradually resolve, and the market will
recovery. The epidemic has disrupted the international trade order and shipping system, and is the
main reason for the sharp price changes in the sports equipment market from 2019 to 2023. Making
the industry suffer a lot, and the brand manufacturers and distribution systems of these equipment
are even more painful. From a historical perspective, this market has always been the cornerstone
of carbon fiber, with a small and stable growth. This trend has not changed and will soon return to a
normal state.
Short supply and high prices suppress the demand in the industrial market, while the
opposite promotes it. Unlike the aerospace and military markets, as well as the sports market,
these two markets have a huge lightweight cost-effectiveness (the price paid per unit of weight
reduction). Industrial applications are more about competing with other alternative materials, most
of which are about cost-effectiveness. The most typical example is wind turbine blades. Everyone
knows the technical value and significance of carbon fiber as the main beam, and it is also led by
international giant VESTAS. However, in recent years, the high price and difficult to buy carbon fiber
has greatly suppressed the enthusiasm of wind power enterprises to adopt CF. Similarly, low-priced
carbon fiber is bound to stimulate various new applications, some of which may be unimaginable
scenarios for us who are carbon fiber professionals, and this is also the magic of the market. So, we
also call on all carbon fiber companies to maintain strategic patience. I believe this market will
develop in a positive direction.
Major changes is an inevitable process for the development of any industry. In the
previous text, we introduced manufacturers and production capacity, as well as the situation of a
large number of newly entered enterprises. Among all traditional global carbon fiber giants,Toray
has moderately expanded production, mainly to cope with the recovery of the international
aerospace and military industry market. The "Measures and Guidelines to Ensure Stable Supply of
Aircraft Components" released by the Japanese Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry proposes
to increase the production capacity of 5000 tons/year of carbon fiber in 2027 by strengthening the
domestic production base in response to the increasing demand for carbon fiber for the next
generation of aircraft. This is also an objective arrangement for the visible growth of commercial
aircraft in the future. Except for the expansion plans of Toray and the Japanese government, other
traditional international carbon fiber giants are relatively cautious. In contrast, emerging carbon fiber
companies, especially those in China and South Korea, have great courage. Uncertain market
demand and confirmed expansion of large production capacity will inevitably lead to a brutal
In 2023, China's carbon fiber industry has made significant achievements: in 2023, the total
demand for carbon fiber in the Chinese Mainland market will be 69,075 tons, of which 53,000 tons
(76.7%) will be domestically produced, an increase of 17.8% compared with 45,000 tons in 2022;
The import volume is 16,075 tons (accounting for 23.3%), a decrease of 45.4% compared to 29,429
tons in 2022. The domestic market share has increased sharply, while the collapse of imported
carbon fiber has declined. Starting from 2022, domestic carbon fiber has become the mainstream
supply in the Chinese market. In 2023, domestic carbon fiber will become the absolute mainstream,
and the trend of domestic substitution will become stronger and stronger. Starting from 2021, China
has continuously become the country with the largest actual operating capacity and demand for
carbon fiber globally, and this position will be greatly enhanced in 2023. In 2023, among the top ten
global production capacity companies, Jilin Chemical Fiber (second), Zhongfu Shenying (third,
fourth in 2022), Newtech Group (eighth), and Baojing Carbon Fiber (ninth). In the coming years,
there will be significant changes in this pattern.
Due to the bull market in recent years, both the expansion of existing enterprises and the
investment in carbon fiber by newcomers have been very enthusiastic. Friends in this industry all
have expressed concerns, and we have also spent some time sum-up this information. And
prepared an appendix: China Carbon Fiber Maintenance Capacity List (tons/year). We hereby
declare that we are only compiling an overall phenomenon to illustrate the situation of the industry. If
there are any errors in the specific data of each enterprise, please understand.
Let's repeat two datas. In 2023, the global demand for carbon fiber was 115,000 tons, while the
domestic demand was 69,075 tons. However, we already have a production capacity of 138,330
tons, which is 20.3% higher than the global demand. Even the global carbon fiber is from China,
and we have 20% more production capacity; If we do not import one kilogram from other country,
and our operating capacity is twice as high as domestic demand. If we add in the 90000 tons of
production capacity currently under construction, assuming that this capacity is all completed by
2025 and there is no significant market growth (which may occur in the future, but the probability of
occurrence in 24-25 years is very rare), our production capacity is likely to be as much as three
times the market demand. Of course, this is just a static and general statistical figure, which is not
helpful for enterprise decision-making. The only useful thing is that it has some implications for
confused and blind new entrants.
The main manufacturers of carbon fiber in China are as follows: state-owned enterprises
include Jilin Chemical Fiber (First), Zhongfu Shenying (Second), Baojing Carbon
Materials (Fourth), Shanghai Petrochemical (Fifth), Jiangsu Hengshen (Eighth), TISCO (Twelfth),
Blue Star (Thirteenth), CNPC Jilin Chemical (Fourteenth), as well as Henan Yongmei, Xi'an Carbon,
and the Yangzhou Base of Institute of Coal Chemistry-Chinese Academy of Sciences. Private
enterprises (including foreign enterprises) include Newtech Group (third), Xinjiang RunJust (sixth),
Guangwei Composite (seventh), Sinofibers(ninth), Changsheng Technology (tenth), and Hyosung
China (eleventh). In 2023, among China's 138,330 tons of operating capacity, state-owned
enterprises accounted for 77.5% of the total operating capacity, while private enterprises (foreign
enterprises) accounted for 22.5% of the total operating capacity. Among the total sales of 53000
tons of carbon fiber in China in 2023, state-owned enterprises accounted for 89.8% and private
enterprises (foreign enterprises) accounted for 10.2%.
From the analysis of the actual situation in China, the comparison of the three categories of
application enterprises shows that the precursor technology routes of the first and second types of
enterprises are similar, mostly using small tow dry spraying wet method, while some enterprises use
wet method. The main technical differences lie in scale and cost. Of course, different market
demands may also have varying degrees of technical requirements, such as production line scale.
The third categories of enterprise pan precursor is mostly low-cost acrylic gene wet technology. In
order to achieve better development, the first type of enterprises need to learn more from the scale
production and cost control technologies of the second type of enterprises; The second type of
enterprises can learn more from the performance and quality stabilization technology of the first
type of enterprises and the high-throughput oxidation and carbonization technology of the third type
of enterprises; The third type of enterprise needs to learn more from the precision of the first type of
wet process technology. Learn from each other and solidify the technological foundation of Chinese
carbon fiber.
1 Jilin Chemical Fiber Group 160,000 49,000 30,000 15,000 200,000 63,000
19 Jilin Shenzhou 0 50 0 0 0 50
Total -1 295,696 138,330 171,400 68,000 614,836 280,430
New entrants
We still use three categories of markets to illustrate the situation of China's industry and market
in 2023, the ratio of sales to operating capacity. In order to distinguish it from the traditional concept
of "production sales ratio," we call it the sales to energy ratio. The first categories of aerospace and
military industry enterprises performed well, with an actual sales to energy ratio of 90% after
deducting converted production to energy. The second categories of high-performance industrial
applications performed mediocrely, with a sales to energy ratio of 50%; The third categories of
low-cost industrial applications performs poorly, with a sales to energy ratio of only 30%.
Let's compare the data of our counterparts from Japanese, and the domestic production
capacity in Japan is about 24,700 tons. According to the sales chart published online by the
Japanese Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry, we estimate that the sales volume is about
12,000 tons, and the sales to energy ratio is also about 50%. According to the statistics of China
Customs, in recent years, the demand scale of Chinese Mainland is about 7,000-8,400 tons,
accounting for 30-33% of Japan's local production capacity. In 2023, the total amount of various
carbon fibers and products imported from Japan will be 5,196 tons, a sharp decline, which should
be the main reason for the decline of Japan's local sales.
Firstly, there has been a Periodic downturn in global market demand, mainly due to the rapid
growth and decrease in demand for wind turbine blades. Secondly, the disruption caused by the
COVID-19 pandemic to international trade and shipping has resulted in a intense demand changes
such as sports equipment. Then, in the past 3-4 years, the global market's supply shortage has led
to price increases, resulting in an increase in inventory at the user. In 2023, market prices have
decreased, and the customer need use up inventory, resulting in a decrease in current demand.
Finally, there is a rapid expansion of production capacity mainly in China (our annual production
capacity increment in 2022 is equivalent to the total production capacity of the United States). The
above factors have led to global overcapacity.
Based on the previously announced data on production expansion or new construction, excess
production capacity and intense competition will undoubtedly be the main theme of the industry in
the coming years. How should the industry develop healthily and sustainably under such
circumstances?
Last year, many friends communicated with me on two topics: one is the crazy new investment
entering the industry, characterized by: new entrants can basically be extremely confident, confident
enough to ignore the supply and demand relationship in the market, confident enough to defeat
existing manufacturers, it seems that he is the king of the industry when he appeared. Industry
experts are all worried about this and hope to find a mechanism to constrain these blind new
entrants. I have also seriously considered this issue and think back to the 2000s when China
invested heavily in carbon fiber. Not only did every household hold a sincere sentiment of
"patriotism and sharing the country's worries", but many entrepreneurs were also outstanding
There are only more than ten major carbon fiber enterprises in China, with three categories of
application markets, each with their own survival and development space. If the main operators of
Why is such a phenomenon rare in developed countries, while it is extremely common in China,
and even countless people take it as a business scripture and act confidently? The reason is not
only due to our commercial culture and lack of market economy baptism, but also due to the
incomplete implementation of intellectual property protection, which has not become everyone's
moral consciousness. We all know that stealing someone else's belongings is shameful, but in
terms of intellectual property, many people are not ashamed, but instead take pride in it.
In the face of fierce competition from existing manufacturers, the prosperity of the market in the
past few years has stimulated many new investors to enter this industry. Firstly, our existing
manufacturers should not feeling flustered, and there is no need to worry too much about these new
entrants. History has proven that most of these company’s consequences are bankruptcy. On the
other hand, we also need to clearly recognize that new investors entering will inevitably have a
"quick and easy" mindset: they usually copy others’ technology through malicious poaching,
adopting standard engineering design companies, and standard equipment manufacturers, and in
this regard, they do have some latecomer advantages. So, existing factories must eliminate the lazy
thinking of "short, flat, and fast". Technological innovation is very difficult and the road is hard, and it
cannot be achieved overnight. It requires great patience, tolerance, resilience, and perseverance.
This arduous is bright, full of vitality, and difficult for outsiders to replicate.The truly correct and
worthy direction of life will inevitably experience changes in the world and unavoidable difficulties
and obstacles.
In recent years, customs data shows that the export of carbon fiber in China can be almost
negligible. The main reasons for this result are as follows: many Chinese products are cheap and of
good quality internationally, and have gained extensive reputation. However, for high-tech products,
especially advanced materials, whether it is international professional media or professional market
reporting companies, for many years, they have ignored or unified the development of Chinese
carbon fiber enterprises and industries, and there is almost no understanding of Chinese carbon
fiber internationally; In the past decade, China's carbon fiber has made significant progress, but it
has caught up with the market's supply shortage and high prices. Enterprises have no interest in
exploring the international market, and at the same time, prices do not have an advantage; In
addition, with the decrease in international exchanges in recent years due to the COVID-19
pandemic, as well as the new trend in international relations, these factors have led to our exports
being almost negligible, all are competing domestically.
Starting from 2017, this report has its English version, introducing China's carbon fiber industry
and development to the international community. Over the years, our report has been noticed by
internationally renowned professional academic journals and media, and in the past two years, they
have begun to attach importance to China's carbon fiber industry. 20 years ago, ATA entered this
industry by being an agent of European and American carbon fiber composite material equipment.
After 20 years, we hope to use our international network to provide good services for the export and
internationalization of carbon fibers for various companies. In the international operations of various
enterprises, in addition to participating in international exhibitions, we also need to pay special
attention to cooperation with international authoritative media. Whether it is advertising, new
product releases, reports on major achievements of enterprises, international famous industry
conferences, etc., we need to invest a lot of energy and financial resources to establish corporate
and national brands in the international market. In this regard,Toray is the best example, not only a
benchmark in the industry, but also adding glory to Japanese manufacturing.
In addition to selling fibers, a more important marketing task is to enter the international
innovation ecosystem. This requires our marketing personnel in carbon fiber enterprises to have
rich knowledge of composite materials and applications, form a pair of keen eyes, and be able to
understand the application prospects behind occasional business opportunities; Improve one's
abilities and have the ability to integrate resources related to composite material design, resin
matrix, composite technology, manufacturing, testing, etc., to assist application end customers in
obtaining composite solutions. This will lay a solid market foundation for future international
warehouses and factories. If customers only consider carbon fiber as a regular commodity and
change suppliers at any time according to the price, it is impossible to achieve true international
operation.
What is the potential for expansion in the existing global application markets? Based on the
development of various application markets in the previous chapter, we will analyze the
characteristics of three categories of markets:
The first category of market is aerospace and military industry, which is divided into two
categories. One is military products, mainly driven by the application of various models, especially
their own demand patterns, which are basically not affected by the "price reduction and quantity
increase" effect. Another one is civilian products, which not only have the effect of price reduction
The second category of high-performance process application market, currently the main
application markets are sports equipment, pressure vessels, and some carbon composite materials.
These three application sub markets do have a certain degree of "price reduction and production
increase" effect, but there is also a great correlation with the development of this application, such
as hydrogen cylinders. Even if the price of carbon fiber is reduced to zero, we cannot expect
hydrogen powered vehicles to run on the streets. Sports equipment has a strong effect of "price
reduction and production increase". China is a kingdom of bicycles, and there is also a large
demand for leisure and sports bicycles in the Western country. Currently, the market is still
dominated by heavy metals. If carbon fiber enterprises cooperate with composite bicycle
enterprises to achieve high efficiency and automation in composite technology, it is possible to bring
carbon bicycles into thousands of households, and even the field of shared bicycles. Compared to
Europe and America, China's per capita consumption of sports equipment is still weak, and the
development of equipment brands is still in its primitive stage, which is a promising field. Carbon
fiber enterprises should pay more attention to the efficient preparation of composite materials in this
field, and promote and cultivate the application market.
The third category of low-cost industrial applications is currently mainly used in wind turbine
blades, automobiles, mixed molding, as well as a large number of functional application areas, such
as energy storage electrodes, fire-resistant insulation carbon felt, and so on. In fact, a broader
market still needs to be developed, because we are aware that as lightweight materials, the annual
market capacity of fiberglass is 10 million tons, the market capacity of aluminum alloy is over 70
million tons, the consumption of wood is hundreds of millions of tons, and the consumption of plastic
is also hundreds of millions of tons... In such a complex industrial system, there are so many fields
where carbon fiber composite materials can be used.
There has always been an unconfirmed rumor in the industry: many years ago, the American
Society of Automotive Engineers claimed that only the price of carbon fiber dropped to $5 per pound
($11 per kilogram), calculated at an exchange rate of 7.2 with the Chinese Yuan, which is 79.2 yuan
per kilogram. With export tax rebates, manufacturers can get 88.3 Yuan per kilogram. According to
the 2023 Chinese low-cost carbon fiber sales price, it is already lower than this price. If the
enterprise develops healthily, the price of $10 per kilogram (converted to 80.3 Yuan per kilogram
with tax refunds) is acceptable. We need to point out that this is a low price that has never been
seen before in human history, and no one dares to deny that previously unattainable applications
cannot be developed.
So, we strongly call on our carbon fiber enterprises to focus on exploring the "innovative
ecological chain" as soon as possible, utilizing our unique international low-cost carbon fiber
advantages, and striving to expand our territory in application, contributing Chinese elements to the
human carbon fiber industry civilization. We not only need to explore the domestic innovation
industry chain, but also actively participate in the construction of the international innovation
ecosystem. Due to the fact that the innovation ecosystem involves multiple enterprises such as
fibers, resins, composite materials, and applications, our country's various science and technology
and industrial policies should quickly shift from the traditional approach of encouraging enterprises
to produce a good carbon fiber to encouraging cooperation among multiple enterprises in society
and jointly creating an "innovation ecosystem chain".