Demand Management and Energy Efficiency: Course Code: B59ES
Demand Management and Energy Efficiency: Course Code: B59ES
Demand Management and Energy Efficiency: Course Code: B59ES
and
Energy Efficiency
Course Code: B59ES
Contents
0. INTRODUCTION...................................................................................................... .- 2 -
2.1. INTRODUCTION......................................................................................................... - 14 -
0. Introduction
In this lecture, we aim to give you an introduction in current energy demand, demand
management and energy efficiency.
While electricity is not the only form of energy we use in our daily lives, it is one of
the most important ones. Our current electricity generation is heavily depending on
fossil fuels. Many predictions have been made of demise of energy reserves.
However, new resources are discovered or previously not economically exploitable
resources become available due to rising prices. As a result, the predicted time until
depletion of fossil fuels does not decrease and for the last few decades, it is always
been about 50 years. A very heated political debate is going on about the
consequences of these predictions.
With these new reserves, will fossil fuel continue to be the “fuel of choice”?
Will prices go up or even come down?
Are we heading for new fuel poverty where people cannot afford electricity
and heating?
How does our fuel mix influence the carbon dioxide emissions?
Do they cause global warming and how much of it?
Is renewable electricity generation a feasible alternative?
Does each form of renewable generation really need a “conventional” (fossil
fuel) generation capacity of equal size as back-up?
We want to give you information and show you material so you will hopefully find
your own answers to these questions through this course.
Both Demand Management and Energy efficiency are about security of supply –
supply of electricity. In the UK, and generally in Europe, we are lucky in having a very
stable and secure electricity supply. Taking a closer look at the fuel shares in
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Introductio
Figure .1.1.: Energy use in the UK including electricity and heat in 2010.2
When researching demand and supply of fossil fuel, you will find a wide variety of
estimates, often depending on the point of view of the person or organization
presenting the data. It is a very good example of why you should always aim to use
several different sources to check your facts!
Looking at a “green” website which is opposed to the use of fossil fuel, the estimate
is 80 years for coal, 40 years for oil and 50 years for natural gas 3. How about sources
favourable to fossil fuels? Generally, oil production is still expected to rise till 2015,
mainly due to an increase in production in Asia and Africa 4; however, it does not rise
as steeply as demand and, as a consequence when demand outstrips supply, prices
1
IEA, World key energy statistics 2009, available for download on www.iea.org
2
http://www.decc.gov.uk/assets/decc/11/stats/publications/flow-chart/2276-energy-flow-
chart-2010.pdf
3
http://www.ecotricity.co.uk/our-green-energy/energy-independence/the-end-of-fossil-fuels
4
http://www.energyinsights.net/cgi-script/csArticles/articles/000000/000085.htm
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Introductio
are expected to go up5. It has been estimated that there are over 861 billion tonnes
of proven coal reserves worldwide 6. This means that there would be enough coal to
last us around 112 years at current rates of production. In contrast, proven oil and
gas reserves are equivalent to around 46 and 54 years at current production levels 7.
The 54 years for oil are taken form a British Petrol (BP) report and 54 years use the
current demand for oil as the basis of the estimate – not very realistic, considering
demand is expected to increase.
Table 1.1: CO2 emissions and equivalent price in current certificates for estimated reserves of
fossil fuel (data from www.eia.gov):
Fossil Fuel CO2 emission [g/kWh]
Oil 862 – 821
Gas 550
Coal 910 – 990
Nuclear 66
Any estimate on gas has a large uncertainty attached. The current proven reserves
amount to 240 trillion cubic feet and would last us another 54 years (again at current
demand). If you include shale gas reserves, the figures look much better and the gas
reserves would last for another 300 years 8. There is, however, a large uncertainty for
these reserves and the US Energy Information Administration has changed its
estimates frequently within the last few years – usually downwards. Also, most if not
all estimates use a constant rate of usage based on the current rate for the figures.
The finite supply of fossil fuels is one reason why it might be a good idea to look for
alternatives. Another reason is the emission of CO 2 when burning fossil fuels and the
contribution to the Greenhouse effect and Global Warming. The greenhouse effect is
not inherently harmful. On the contrary, it is necessary, otherwise Earth would be too
cold for us to live on - see Mars, where the atmosphere (thermal blanket) was lost
5
http://www.economist.com/blogs/dailychart/2011/06/oil-production-and-consumption
6
http://www.worldcoal.org/coal/where-is-coal-found/
7
http://lugar.senate.gov/energy/graphs/worldoil.html
8
www.eia.gov
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Introductio
and average temperature is now around -60 °C. As with most things, however, too
much of a good thing is not necessarily better.
Carbon dioxide, Methane or Nitro-oxides are called Greenhouse gases. All of these
gases are known to increase global temperatures by retaining infrared radiation. The
concentration of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere has increased steadily over the
last decades. There is a connection in the amount of CO2 in the atmosphere and the
rise of global temperatures. The exact connection is not certain, and, given the
complexity of earth‘s atmospheric system, that is not a surprise. But the connection is
undoubted, and has been shown to be valid for thousands of years determined from
arctic ice samples. Since the start of the Industrial Revolution, for example, the
amount of CO2 in atmosphere has increased by 31 percent - higher than at any time
in the past 100 million years. Even if our species is not responsible for the rise, it
would be prudent to not add to it as we do not know the consequences.
Are we humans and our consumption of fossil fuels responsible for the increase in
CO2 in the atmosphere and for global warming? A surprising number of people doubt
that. It is also often claimed that even scientists substantially disagree about human-
caused global warming. Looking at articles in peer-reviewed scientific journals should
reveal the disagreement: Of nearly 14.000 articles in peer-reviewed journals
published within the last 20 years only 24 reject global warming as man-made
phenomenon9.
To insure future security of supply, we should use electricity generation technology
that is both renewable and sustainable. As a positive side effect, this will also produce
less greenhouse gases. However, basically all renewable generation is variable and
less convenient than running a coal fired power plant. We will need Demand
Management (DM) measures, increase energy efficiency and use Energy Storage
Technologies (EST) to successfully integrate new technologies.
9
http://www.jamespowell.org/index.html
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Chapter 1: Demand Management
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Demand Manageme
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Demand Manageme
DSM needs the buy-in of customers, the generator and the distributor, regardless of
who initiates the management of demand. That is, the scheme has to benefit, or at
least be cost neutral, for all three stakeholders.
DSM is used on a large scale for frequency response and fast reserve in the UK.
Suppliers can provide frequency response services by shedding load (industrial loads
are disconnected during an event) to support the system frequency. Customers
participating in this scheme must be large consumers of power who can rapidly shed
load. Fast reserve requires power reduction within 2 minutes of instruction which
must be sustained for at least 15 minutes, delivering 25 MW/minute. Typically there
are 10s of events per year. Participating customer contracts include reduced energy
costs.
Low consumption customers can benefit from end-use DSM programmes. A typical
example is the control of air-conditioning in homes. The supplier monitors a pricing
signal and when it exceeds a threshold, a radio transmission contacts a ‘smart’
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Demand Manageme
thermostat and cycles the load off. Such a system requires an infrastructure
comprising communication and control, but no changes to metering.
The economic costs of implementing a DSM programme can vary significantly, but
may include costs associated with:
smart metering
control
incentives for participation
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Demand Manageme
billing systems
administrative and marketing costs
changes to settlement processes
Barriers to the uptake of DSM can be classified into the following categories:
Regulatory
Commercial
Technological
Sociological
The barriers in each of the above categories depend on whether the programme is
customer, supplier or distributor initiated.
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Demand Manageme
Technical barriers involve the control technology required and the appliances
themselves.
Currently, load variability emanates from demand. In the, load variability might very
well emanate from supply with increasing penetration of REG in the electricity mix.
DSM may play a more important role in the future in balance mechanisms. Both
countering less control in the supply-side technologies and iimproving flexibility of
the network are possible areas for DSM. Alternative visions are being explored for
future electricity networks like changing from the current “fit-and-forget” strategy to
an active grid management.
1.9. Conclusions
The concept of demand side management has been introduced and the various forms
of DSM described. Some examples of DSM initiatives in the past have been reviewed
and evidence of their suitability in achieving the aim of reducing peak loads, deferring
capital expenditure and reducing consumption has been discussed.
DSM has a bright future in electricity networks and in general energy networks. Some
of the barriers associated with the introduction of DSM programmes in the UK have
been outlined.
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Demand Manageme
“Demand side measures on the UK electrical system”, DTI Report 15159, 2005.
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Chapter 2: Energy Efficiency
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Energy Efficienc
2. Energy Efficiency
2.1. Introduction
The relativism of the term means that numerous definitions can be applied
depending on the system, process or product being studied. A useful encapsulation
of the widest possible scope of application can be defined using, as a jumping off
point the approach provided by Lovins (2004):
= x x x x x
T EX
D-EX C D E HE
T Technical efficiency
EX Fuel extraction efficiency
HE Hedonic efficiency – extent to which the delivered service meets the desire
The technical efficiency could also be defined as the process efficiency. As with many
aspects of energy consumption studies (e.g. Life cycle analysis, embodied energy
assessments), the energy efficiency term defined is subject to the boundaries placed
on the calculation procedure.
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Energy Efficienc
To describe the application of this term is it useful to utilise a case study approach.
For this we consider the electricity consumption associated with lighting a 15m2
office building for 12 hours – the required amount of electricity to carry out this task
is 1kWh.10The procedural steps to explore the overall process efficiency for providing
lighting to the office is shown in Table 1.
Table 2.1: Description of efficiency terms:
Assumed
Efficiency
Description efficiency
term
(%)
It is assumed that the coal is extracted from an open cast 94.9
EX
mine in South Africa. Efficiency of extraction is defined
as the ration of energy input to extract the coal to the
energy contained within the coal extracted. 295g of coal
is extracted at an equivalent energy cost of 15g of coal.
D-EX The coal is then transported to Richard’s Bay coal 99.3
terminal and from there by tanker to Grangemouth and
then on to Longannet Power Station in Fife. 280g of coal
is transported at an equivalent energy cost of 2g coal.
C
The efficiency of electricity generation at Longannet (in 34.9
2010) was 34.9% of the 278g coal delivered to the plant,
172g is rejected as heat and 97g is converted into
electricity.
D
The electricity than has to be transmitted and distributed 91.0
to the office. This incurs a further 9% of losses,
equivalent to 9g of the 97g of coal that was converted
into electricity.
E
Of the 1kWh of electricity supplied to the lighting ballast, 30.0
circa 30% of the electrical energy is converted into light
the remained into heat. 25g of the original 295g of
extracted coal finds its way into the provision of lighting
the 15m2 office for 12 hours
The technical efficiency of the process up to this point, Circa 9%
T
10
Assuming a required lux level of 400 and lighting technology with an efficacy of
75lu/W that meets the BCO guideline of a maximum 12W/m2 heat gains.
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Energy Efficienc
There are numerous motivations for considering energy efficiency, from the
perspective of an individual project and from the perspective of considering national
and global energy policy assessments.
Numerous studies (e.g. to select two; IPCC Assessment report 11, The Stern Review12)
have identified energy efficiency in the built environment as being ‘low hanging fruit’
when considered against all other technological interventions that can be deployed in
the economy to reduce GHG emissions.
Lovins (2007) goes on to describe it as the cheapest form of energy we can invest in,
substantially cheaper than any investment in supply side solutions (i.e. generation).
From the scale of a single project to consideration of national energy policy a purely
rational economic case can be made for investing in energy efficiency measures,
particularly in buildings.
Its cost effectiveness means that a case could be made for using energy efficiency as
a core element of energy policy targeted to address the overarching issues of the
day; namely energy security – where energy efficiency can be used to reduce demand
thereby limiting energy import requirements, the climate change agenda, and the
strain being placed on electricity networks by increased penetration of intermittent
renewable generation.
11
IPCC Fourth Assessment Report: Climate Change 2007: Working Group III: Mitigation of
Climate Change
12
Stern Review on the Economics of Climate Change, HM Treasury, 2007
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Energy Efficienc
It is possible to consider the extent to which energy efficiency could contribute to the
required societal goals defined by the climate agenda. The Ehrlich and Holdren
equation can be considered to provide a very simplistic quantification of
requirement.
8
4
(T)
0
OECD 1970-
US 1997-
EU 1997-
US (1979-
US (1960-
EU (1960-
Global 1973-
Global 1997-
2001
2001
2000)
1986)
2002)
2002)
1990
(T) - from
1991
reduction in
2001
carbon
Figure 1: Comparison of annual reduction in energy intensity required to meet climate
objectives with historical examples
I = PAT
(I) is the impact of human activity on the planet
(P) is the size of the population
(A) is the level of affluence expressed as income per person
(T) is the technology factor which is a measure of the impact on the planet associated
with each dollar we spend.
A purely technologically optimistic viewpoint is taken to ascertain the extent to which
the (T), in effect a quasi-measurement of economic energy intensity would have to
reduce to accommodate assumed increased population and levels of affluence (Table
2).
To achieve the target require the (T) term to reduce to 0.04 by 2050, a reduction of
7.3% pa from 2010. This is admittedly a very simplistic assessment. It assumes no
confounding variables or feedback loops between economic growth and efficiency for
instance. Most vectors would imply that this figure would be a conservative one.
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Energy Efficienc
It is worth considering whether this level of energy intensity reduction has been
achieved in the past among developed economies (Figure 1). The best that has been
recorded was in the US in response to the Yom Kippur war and the fall of the Shah
which led to the OPEC oil embargo. The energy intensity of the US economy was
reduced by over 3% pa during this period. This would possibly be achievable if the
emission intensity of the global economy was reduced by 50%.
Table 2.2: Description of terms in Ehrlich and Holdren equation
Term Assumption
(P) is the size of the population Population is forecast to increase to 9bn by
mid century
(A) is the level of affluence Increase in global GDP by 3% pa to mid-
expressed as income per person century – economy is 3.36 times bigger in
2030 than today
(I) is the impact of human activity Climate science indicated that for mitigation
on the planet policy to stand a chance of being effective CO 2
emission must fall by 80% by 2050
The market performance of energy efficient processes and goods has been more
sluggish than forecasted. The most recent heyday for investment in the low carbon
sector (a sector that included energy efficient processes and goods) was during the
period 2000-2005, a period that coincided with political establishment of the climate
change agenda, the consequent development of global legislative and regulatory
environmental policy and a long run economic boom. Whilst a number of
technologies have been able to achieve market traction, many have fallen by the way
side as adoption rates have lagged considerably behind forecasts. It is an interesting
therefore to view energy efficiency through this prism of (in effect) over promise and
overall market failure. The current structure of the economy and the energy markets
does not create a value proposition for energy efficiency of sufficient magnitude to
negate the requirement for future policy and regulation.
It is interesting to consider the historical impact of energy efficiency policy on
patterns of energy consumption. To narrow down the assessment, somewhat the
scope of legislation and initiatives that have been broadly applied to the UK Domestic
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Energy Efficienc
180
160
140
relative scale - consider each
Service Demand
120
Service Demand
100 per household
varaible
Energy Consumption
80
60 Energy Consumption
per household
40 Specific energy consumption
20
0
Figure 2: 1S9e9r0vice pro1vi9s9io5n, ener2gy00c0onsump2t0io0n5 and en2e0rg1y0
intensity of the UK domestic sector from 1990-2010
The drafting of energy policy and legislation to create markets for energy efficiency is
a complex task and deployed solutions do not always have their intended impact. A
13
See Mallaburn & Eyre (2014) for an excellent review of the legislation in this policy
area.
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Energy Efficienc
number of anomalies are described below that have been chosen to explore
particular aspects of energy efficiency and energy consumption.
Regulation can be created that increases the energy efficiency of a service or product
that leads to a change in the service provision that in turn leads to an increase in
energy consumption.
The thermal performance of household conservatories was not regulated (via Part L
of the Building Regulations) until 1986. Prior to this date conservatories were
typically single glazed with little or no insulation in the walls and were designed for
use in the summer time only. The amount of heat loss from these structures
effectively precluded the provision of space heating. It seemed sensible to regulate
their thermal performance. However the outcome is that double and (now) triple
glazed constructions with insulated floor and wall are now standard, thermal
performance is such that provision of space heating is standard and these spaces are
now used throughout the year, with the energy efficiency called for by the
regulations resulting in an increase (not decrease) in energy consumption.
In effect the utility provided by the conservatory was changed as a consequence of
energy efficiency legislation. This change in utility resulted in increased energy
consumption; this is called back-fire.
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Energy Efficienc
The ability to envisage and then construct Dubai was made possible by a wide range
of developments. One critical one was associated with the rapid technological
advances made in air conditioning systems largely promoted by energy efficiency
policies. As a consequence New Dubai could be envisaged to contain a) an indoor ski
facility and b) a city with approximately the population of Edinburgh construed
almost exclusively of using multi-story, glazed façade constructions.
The way in which the energy efficiency policy is drafted and then enacted can be
anomalous leading to increased energy consumption.
The energy label for refrigeration appliances is based on an accredited test method
that measures kWh/litre of cold space. This is then multiplied by the volume of the
space and the number of days in the year to produce the kWh pa figure found on the
label. The principal energy consumption driver for a cold appliance is the shell:cold
volume ratio; heat gain through the shell requires the compressor to run for longer.
One method of increasing the kWh/litre of cold space value is to reduce the shell:cold
space ratio. You can do this by increasing the size of the refrigerator.
The size of fridge freezers has increased substantially in the UK over the last two
decades. This has been a contributing factor to significant and large reaching
structural changes in the way we buy and consume food. Some examples could be:
Large cold spaces encourage a single large shop – occupants feel reward from
filling the fridge up with food
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Energy Efficienc
Larger cold spaces can allow pre-cooked food to be stored more readily,
contributing to the growth in ready meals
These two factors taken together change how supermarkets look, change food supply
chain logistics that can impact for instance on land use policy in developing countries
and also impact on health and nutrition.
Energy efficiency has been a core component of energy policy for the last three
decades. A significant aim of the policy is to reduce consumption levels in absolute
terms. Has this occurred?
6 120
4 100
Annual change in Energy:GDP ratio
0 60
-2 40
-4 20
-6 0
1960 1970 1980 1990 2000
Figure 3: Energy consumption and intensity of the US economy 1960-2005
In the US energy consumption more than doubled between 1960 and 2005. The
Energy intensity of the economy reduced during the period by on average 2.4% pa
(Figure 3).
In the UK total primary energy consumption peaked between 2000 and 2005 since
when it has fallen back to figures equivalent to 1970. During this period there has
been a massive re-structuring of the economy with for instance contribution to GDP
from the manufacturing sector falling from more than 30% in 1970 to c 12% in 2010.
It might be argued that the UK has in effect outsourced its energy consumption to
low cost centres in Eastern Europe and Asia.
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Energy Efficienc
240
235
230
225
220
Total Primary
215
210
Energy
205
200
195
190
1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010
This is a glossary of specialist terms from the built environment which will be used in
the lecture.
Table 2.3: Glossary of terms used for energy efficiency in buildings:
Term Definition
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Energy Efficienc
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Energy Efficienc
Generally, there are two main sectors in the domestic sector with regards to
regulating energy efficiency in buildings, and that is newly built and existing buildings.
Regulations in the new built sector are mainly driven by regulations issued by the
European Union Like discussed above, there have been labels introduced for
appliances and the aim is to transform the market so people by appliances labelled
“A”, “B” or “C”. A similar scheme, the European Performance of Buildings Directive
was introduced in 2003 used a similar philosophy for new buildings.
2.11. Conclusions
These two examples would at the very least suggest that the Jury is out as to
whether Energy efficiency leads to reduced consumption.
It will always remain as one core parameter of any engineering project.
It will also remain as a core component of future energy policy
It will remain interesting to explore the extent to which its application in
markets that are underpinned by unconstrained energy consumption
archives the aims ascribed to it.
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