Ipcc wg3 Ar5 Final-Draft Postplenary Chapter11 PDF

Working Group III Mitigation of Climate Change
Chapter 11
Agriculture, Forestry and Other Land

Use (AFOLU)

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FinalDraft Chapter11 IPCCWGIIIAR5
Chapter: 11
Title: Agriculture,ForestryandOtherLandUse(AFOLU)
Author(s): CLAs: PeteSmith,MercedesBustamante
LAs: HelalAhammad,HarryClark,HongminDong,ElnourA.Elsiddig,Helmut
Haberl,RichardHarper,JoannaHouse,MostafaJafari,OmarMasera,
CheikhMbow,NijavalliH.Ravindranath,CharlesW.Rice,Carmenza
RobledoAbad,AnnaRomanovskaya,FrankSperling,FrancescoN.
Tubiello
CAs: GranBerndes,SimonBolwig,HannesBttcher,RyanBright,Francesco
Cherubini,HelenaChum,EsteveCorbera,FelixCreutzig,MarkDelucchi,
AndreFaaij,JoeFargione,GesineHnsel,GarvinHeath,MarioHerrero,
HeatherJacobs,OswaldoLucon,DanielPauly,RichardPlevin,Alexander
Popp,JohnR.Porter,StevenRose,AlexandredeSiqueiraPinto,Saran
Sohi,AndersStromman,SangwonSuh
REs: ThelmaKrug,GertJanNabuurs
CSA: MarinaMolodovskaya
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Chapter11: Agriculture,ForestryandOtherLandUse(AFOLU)
Contents
ExecutiveSummary............................................................................................................................4
11.1Introduction................................................................................................................................8
11.2Newdevelopmentsinemissiontrendsanddrivers.................................................................10
11.2.1Supplyandconsumptiontrendsinagricultureandforestry.............................................10
11.2.2TrendsofGHGemissionsfromagriculture........................................................................14
11.2.3TrendsofGHGfluxesfromforestryandotherlanduse....................................................16
11.3Mitigationtechnologyoptionsandpractices,andbehaviouralaspects..................................22
11.3.1Supplysidemitigationoptions...........................................................................................23
11.3.2Mitigationeffectiveness(nonpermanence:saturation,humanandnaturalimpacts,
displacement).....................................................................................................................28
11.4Infrastructureandsystemicperspectives................................................................................30
11.4.1Land:acomplex,integratedsystem..................................................................................30
11.4.2MitigationinAFOLUfeedbackswithlandusecompetition...........................................31
11.4.3DemandsideoptionsforreducingGHGemissionsfromAFOLU.......................................33
11.4.4Feedbacksofchangesinlanddemand..............................................................................37
11.4.5Sustainabledevelopmentandbehaviouralaspects...........................................................39
11.5Climatechangefeedbackandinteractionwithadaptation(includesvulnerability)................44
11.5.1FeedbacksbetweenALOFUandclimatechange...............................................................44
11.5.2Implicationsofclimatechangeonterrestrialcarbonpoolsandmitigationpotentialof
forests.................................................................................................................................44
11.5.3Implicationsofclimatechangeonpeatlands,grasslands,andcroplands.........................45
11.5.4Potentialadaptationoptionstominimizetheimpactofclimatechangeoncarbonstocks
inforestsandagriculturalsoils...........................................................................................46
11.5.5Mitigationandadaptationsynergiesandtradeoffs...........................................................46
11.6Costsandpotentials.................................................................................................................47
11.6.1Approachestoestimatingeconomicmitigationpotentials...............................................48
11.6.2GlobalestimatesofcostsandpotentialsintheAFOLUsector..........................................49
11.6.3RegionaldisaggregationofglobalcostsandpotentialsintheAFOLUsector....................52
11.7Cobenefits,risks,andspillovers..............................................................................................54
11.7.1Socioeconomiceffects......................................................................................................55
11.7.2Environmentaleffects........................................................................................................57
11.7.3Publicperception...............................................................................................................61
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11.7.4Spillovers............................................................................................................................61
11.8Barriersandopportunities........................................................................................................62
11.8.1Socioeconomicbarriersandopportunities.......................................................................62
11.8.2Institutionalbarriersandopportunities.............................................................................62
11.8.3Ecologicalbarriersandopportunities................................................................................63
11.8.4Technologicalbarriersandopportunities..........................................................................63
11.9Sectoralimplicationsoftransformationpathwaysandsustainabledevelopment..................64
11.9.1Characterizationoftransformationpathways...................................................................64
11.9.2ImplicationsoftransformationpathwaysfortheAFOLUsector.......................................67
11.9.3Implicationsoftransformationpathwaysforsustainabledevelopment...........................68
11.10Sectoralpolicies......................................................................................................................69
11.10.1Economicincentives.........................................................................................................69
11.10.2RegulatoryandControlApproaches................................................................................73
11.10.3Informationschemes.......................................................................................................74
11.10.4Voluntaryactionsandagreements..................................................................................77
11.11Gapsinknowledgeanddata..................................................................................................77
11.12FrequentlyAskedQuestions...................................................................................................77
11.13AppendixBioenergy:Climateeffects,mitigationoptions,potentialandsustainability
implications............................................................................................................................79
11.13.1Introduction.....................................................................................................................79
11.13.2Technicalbioenergypotential..........................................................................................79
11.13.3Bioenergyconversion:technologiesandmanagementpractices...................................82
11.13.4GHGemissionestimatesofbioenergyproductionsystems............................................88
11.13.5Aggregatefuturepotentialdeploymentinintegratedmodels........................................96
11.13.6Bioenergyandsustainabledevelopment.........................................................................97
11.13.7Tradeoffsandsynergieswithland,water,food,andbiodiversity.................................101
References......................................................................................................................................103
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ExecutiveSummary
Agriculture,Forestry,andOtherLandUse(AFOLU)isuniqueamongthesectorsconsideredinthis
volume,sincethemitigationpotentialisderivedfrombothanenhancementofremovalsof
greenhousegases(GHG),aswellasreductionofemissionsthroughmanagementoflandand
livestock(robustevidence;highagreement).ThelandprovidesfoodthatfeedstheEarthshuman
populationofca.7billion,fibreforavarietyofpurposes,livelihoodsforbillionsofpeople
worldwide,andisacriticalresourceforsustainabledevelopmentinmanyregions.Agricultureis
frequentlycentraltothelivelihoodsofmanysocialgroups,especiallyindevelopingcountrieswhere
itoftenaccountsforasignificantshareofproduction.Inadditiontofoodandfibre,theland
providesamultitudeofecosystemservices;climatechangemitigationisjustoneofmanythatare
vitaltohumanwellbeing(robustevidence;highagreement).MitigationoptionsintheAFOLU
sector,therefore,needtobeassessed,asfaraspossible,fortheirpotentialimpactonallother
servicesprovidedbyland.[Section11.1]
TheAFOLUsectorisresponsibleforjustunderaquarter(~1012GtCO2eq/yr)ofanthropogenic
GHGemissionsmainlyfromdeforestationandagriculturalemissionsfromlivestock,soiland
nutrientmanagement(robustevidence;highagreement)[11.2].Anthropogenicforestdegradation
andbiomassburning(forestfiresandagriculturalburning)alsorepresentrelevantcontributions.
AnnualGHGemissionsfromagriculturalproductionin20002010wereestimatedat5.05.8
GtCO2eq/yrwhileannualGHGfluxfromlanduseandlandusechangeactivitiesaccountedfor
approximately4.35.5GtCO2eq/yr.Leveragingthemitigationpotentialinthesectorisextremely
importantinmeetingemissionreductiontargets(robustevidence;highagreement)[11.9].Since
publicationoftheFourthAssessmentReport(AR4),emissionsfromtheAFOLUsectorhaveremained
similarbuttheshareofanthropogenicemissionshasdecreasedto24%(in2010),largelydueto
increasesinemissionsintheenergysector(robustevidence,highagreement).Inspiteofalarge
rangeacrossglobalForestryandOtherLandUse(FOLU)fluxestimates,mostapproachesindicatea
declineinFOLUcarbondioxide(CO2)emissionsoverthemostrecentyears,largelyduetodecreasing
deforestationrates(limitedevidence,mediumagreement).AsinAR4,mostprojectionssuggest
decliningannualnetCO2emissionsinthelongrun.Inpart,thisisdrivenbytechnologicalchange,as
wellasprojecteddecliningratesofagricultureareaexpansion,which,inturn,isrelatedtothe
expectedslowinginpopulationgrowth.However,unlikeAR4,noneofthemorerecentscenarios
projectsgrowthinthenear-term[11.9].
Opportunitiesformitigationincludesupplysideanddemandsideoptions.Onthesupplyside,
emissionsfromlandusechange(LUC),landmanagementandlivestockmanagementcanbe
reduced,terrestrialcarbonstockscanbeincreasedbysequestrationinsoilsandbiomass,and
emissionsfromenergyproductioncanbesavedthroughthesubstitutionoffossilfuelsbybiomass
(robustevidence;highagreement)[11.3].Onthedemandside,GHGemissionscouldbemitigatedby
reducinglossesandwastesoffood,changesindietandchangesinwoodconsumption(robust
evidence;highagreement)[11.4]thoughquantitativeestimatesofthepotentialarefewandhighly
uncertain.Increasingproductionwithoutacommensurateincreaseinemissionsalsoreduces
emissionintensity,i.e.,theGHGemissionsperunitofproductthatcouldbedeliveredthrough
sustainableintensification;anothermechanismformitigationexploredinmoredetailherethanin
AR4.Supplysideoptionsdependontheefficacyoflandandlivestockmanagement(medium
evidence;highagreement)[11.6].Consideringdemandsideoptions,changesinhumandietcanhave
asignificantimpactonGHGemissionsfromthefoodproductionlifecycle(mediumevidence;medium
agreement)[11.4].Thereareconsiderablydifferentchallengesinvolvedindeliveringdemandside
andsupplysideoptions,whichalsohaveverydifferentsynergiesandtradeoffs.

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Thenatureofthesectormeansthattherearepotentiallymanybarrierstoimplementationof
availablemitigationoptions,includingaccessibilitytoAFOLUfinancing,poverty,institutional,
ecological,technologicaldevelopment,diffusionandtransferbarriers(mediumevidence;medium
agreement)[11.7,11.8].Similarly,thereareimportantfeedbackstoadaptation,conservationof
naturalresources,suchaswaterandterrestrialandaquaticbiodiversity(robustevidence;high
agreement)[11.5,11.8].Therecanbecompetitionbetweendifferentlandusesifalternativeoptions
touseavailablelandaremutuallyexclusive,buttherearealsopotentialsynergies,e.g.,integrated
systemsormultifunctionalityatlandscapescale(mediumevidence;highagreement)[11.4].Recent
frameworks,suchasthoseforassessingenvironmentalorecosystemservices,provideone
mechanismforvaluingthemultiplesynergiesandtradeoffsthatmayarisefrommitigationactions
(mediumevidence;mediumagreement)[11.1].Sustainablemanagementofagriculture,forests,and
otherlandisanunderpinningrequirementofsustainabledevelopment(robustevidence;high
agreement)[11.4].
AFOLUemissionscouldchangesubstantiallyintransformationpathways,withsignificant
mitigationpotentialfromagriculture,forestry,andbioenergymitigationmeasures(medium
evidence;highagreement).Recentmultimodelcomparisonsofidealizedimplementation
transformationscenariosfindlandemissions(nitrousoxide,N2O;methane,CH4;CO2)changingby4
to99%through2030,and7to76%through2100,withthepotentialforincreasedemissionsfrom
landcarbonstocks.Landrelatedmitigation,includingbioenergy,couldcontribute20to60%oftotal
cumulativeabatementto2030,and15to40%to2100.However,policycoordinationand
implementationissuesarechallengestorealizingthispotential[11.9].Largescaleenergygeneration
orcarbonsequestrationintheAFOLUsectorprovidesflexibilityforthedevelopmentofmitigation
technologiesintheenergysupplyandenergyendusesectors,asmanytechnologiesalreadyexist
andsomeofthemarecommercial(limitedevidence;mediumagreement)[11.3],butthereare
potentialimplicationsforbiodiversity,foodsecurity,andotherservicesprovidedbyland(medium
evidence,highagreement)[11.7].Implementationchallenges,includinginstitutionalbarriersand
inertiarelatedtogovernanceissues,makethecostsandnetemissionreductionpotentialofnear
termmitigationuncertain.Inmitigationscenarioswithidealizedcomprehensiveclimatepolicies,
agriculture,forestry,andbioenergycontributesubstantiallytothereductionofglobalCO2,CH4,and
N2Oemissions,andtotheenergysystem,therebyreducingpolicycosts(mediumevidence;high
agreement)[11.9].Morerealisticpartialanddelayedpoliciesforgloballandmitigationhave
potentiallysignificantspatialandtemporalleakage,andeconomicimplications,butcouldstillbe
costeffectivelydeployed(limitedevidence;limitedagreement)[11.9].
EconomicmitigationpotentialofsupplysidemeasuresintheAFOLUsectorisestimatedtobe7.18
to10.60(fullrange:0.4910.60)GtCO2eq/yratcarbonpricesupto100USD/tCO2eq,aboutathird
ofwhichcanbeachievedat<20USD/tCO2eq(mediumevidence;mediumagreement)[11.6].These
estimatesarebasedonstudiesthatcoverbothforestryandagricultureandthatincludeagricultural
soilcarbonsequestration.Estimatesfromagriculturalsectoronlystudiesrangefrom0.3to4.6
GtCO2eq/yratpricesupto100USD/tCO2eq,andestimatesfromforestrysectoronlystudiesfrom
0.2to13.8GtCO2eq/yratpricesupto100USD/tCO2eq(mediumevidence;mediumagreement)
[11.6].Thelargerangeintheestimatesarisesduetowidelydifferentcollectionsofoptions
consideredineachstudy,andbecausenotallGHGsareconsideredinallofthestudies.The
compositionoftheagriculturalmitigationportfoliovarieswiththecarbonprice,withtherestoration
oforganicsoilshavingthegreatestpotentialathighercarbonprices(100USD/tCO2eq)andcropland
andgrazinglandmanagementatlower(20USD/tCO2eq).Inforestrythereislessdifferencebetween
measuresatdifferentcarbonprices,buttherearesignificantdifferencesbetweenregions,with
reduceddeforestationdominatingtheforestrymitigationpotentialinLatinAmericaandCaribbean
(LAM)andMiddleEastandAfrica(MAF),butverylittlepotentialinthemembercountriesofthe
OrganisationforEconomicCooperationandDevelopment(OECD1990)andEconomiesinTransition
(EIT).Forestmanagement,followedbyafforestation,dominateinOECD1990,EIT,andAsia(medium
evidence,strongagreement)[11.6].Amongdemandsidemeasures,whichareunderresearched
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comparedtosupplysidemeasures,changesindietandreductionsoflossesinthefoodsupplychain
canhaveasignificantimpactonGHGemissionsfromfoodproduction(0.768.55GtCO2eq/yrby
2050),withtherangebeingdeterminedbyassumptionsabouthowthefreedlandisused(limited
evidence;mediumagreement)[11.4].Moreresearchintodemandsidemitigationoptionsismerited.
Therearesignificantregionaldifferencesintermsofmitigationpotential,costs,andapplicability,
duetodifferinglocalbiophysical,socioeconomic,andculturalcircumstances,forinstancebetween
developedanddevelopingregions,andamongdevelopingregions(mediumevidence;high
agreement)[11.6].
Thesizeandregionaldistributionoffuturemitigationpotentialisdifficulttoestimateaccurately
becauseitdependsonanumberofinherentlyuncertainfactors.Criticalfactorsincludepopulation
(growth),economicandtechnologicaldevelopments,changesinbehaviourovertime(dependingon
culturalandnormativebackgrounds,marketstructuresandincentives),andhowthesetranslateinto
demandforfood,fibre,fodderandfuel,aswellasdevelopmentintheagriculture,aquacultureand
forestrysectors.Otherfactorsimportanttomitigationpotentialarepotentialclimatechange
impactsoncarbonstocksinsoilsandforestsincludingtheiradaptivecapacity(mediumevidence;
highagreement)[11.5];considerationssetbybiodiversityandnatureconservationrequirements;
andinterrelationswithlanddegradationandwaterscarcity(robustevidence;highagreement)
[11.8].
Landusechangeassociatedwithbioenergyexpansion,afforestationordeforestationcanaffect
GHGbalances,albedoandotherclimatedriversinseveralways.Bioenergycanbedeployedas
solid,liquidandgaseousfuelstoprovidetransport,electricity,andheatforawiderangeofuses,
includingcooking,anddependingonhowandwhereimplemented,canleadtoeitherbeneficialor
undesirableconsequencesforclimatechangemitigation(robustevidence,highagreement)[11.13].
Withlimitedavailabilityofproductiveland,increasedcompetitionforlandmayresultfromlarge
deploymentofdedicatedenergycrops,whichmayinducesubstantialLUC,causinghighGHG
emissionsand/oragriculturalintensification,whichcouldresultinmorefertilizeruse(leadingto
higherN2Oemissions),andenergyuseforirrigation(mediumevidence;limitedagreement)[11.9].
However,societalpreferencesandtechnologicalchangesalsoshapetheLUCandintensification
outcomes.TheAFOLUmitigationoptionscanpromoteinnovation,andmanytechnologicalsupply
sidemitigationoptionsalsoincreaseagriculturalandsilviculturalefficiency(robustevidence;high
agreement)[11.3].
Bioenergycouldplayacriticalroleforclimatechangemitigation,ifconversionofhighcarbon
densityecosystems(forests,grasslandsandpeatlands)isavoidedandbestpracticeland
managementisimplemented(robustevidence,mediumagreement).Integratedmodelssuggesta
widerangeofbetween10and245EJ/yrprimaryenergyfrombiomassby2050.Bioenergyfromfast
growingtreespecies,sugarcane,andMiscanthus,andresidueshavesignificantlylowerlifecycle
emissionsthanbioenergyfromcornandsoybean,formostpathwaysandsitespecificconditions
(robustevidence,mediumagreement).Scientificdebateaboutthemarginalemissionsofmost
bioenergypathways,inparticulararoundlandmediatedequilibriumeffects(suchasindirectland
usechange),remainsunresolved(robustevidence,highagreement).Bioenergyandcarbondioxide
captureandstorage(BECCS)maybecriticaltoscenariosforstabilizationat<2C;however,the
potentialandcostsofBECCSarehighlyuncertainwithsomeintegratedmodelsbeingmore
optimisticthansectoralstudies.Biomassforenergy,includingimprovedcookstoves,biogas,and
smallscalebiopowercouldreducemarginalGHGemissionsandalsoimprovelivelihoodsandhealth
of2.6billionruralinhabitants.Butifpolicyconditions(e.g.,priceonbothfossilandterrestrial
carbon;landuseplanning,andothers)arenotmet,bioenergydeploymentcouldalsoleadto
increasedemissions,andcompromiselivelihoods(distributionalconsequences),biodiversityand
ecosystemservices(mediumevidence,mediumagreement).[11.13]
Anylargescalechangeinlanduse,forbiomassforenergy,orforsequestrationinvegetation,will
likelyincreasethecompetitionforland,water,andotherresources,andconflictsmayarisewith
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importantsustainabilityobjectivessuchasfoodsecurity,soilandwaterconservation,andthe
protectionofterrestrialandaquaticbiodiversity(mediumevidence;mediumagreement)[11.4,
11.7,11.13].Insomecaseslandbasedmitigationprojectsmayprovideland,waterandbiodiversity
cobenefits(mediumevidence;mediumagreement)[11.7].Sustainabilityframeworkstoguide
developmentofsuchmitigationprojectsneedtoconsidercompetitionforland(mediumevidence;
limitedagreement)[11.8].Riskscouldbereducedbyfocusingonmultifunctionalsystemsthatallow
thedeliveryofmultipleservicesfromland(mediumevidence;highagreement)[11.7].
Policiesgoverningpracticesinagricultureandinforestconservationandmanagementneedto
accountforbothmitigationandadaptation.OneofthemostvisiblecurrentpoliciesintheAFOLU
sectoristheimplementationofREDD+(seeAnnexI),thatcanrepresentacosteffectiveoptionfor
mitigation(limitedevidence;mediumagreement)[11.10],witheconomic,social,andother
environmentalcobenefits(e.g.,conservationofbiodiversityandwaterresources).

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11.1 Introduction
Agriculture,Forestry,andOtherLandUse(AFOLU1)playsacentralroleforfoodsecurityand
sustainabledevelopment(Section11.9).Plantstakeupcarbondioxide(CO2)fromtheatmosphere
andnitrogen(N)fromthesoilwhentheygrow,redistributingitamongdifferentpools,including
aboveandbelowgroundlivingbiomass,deadresidues,andsoilorganicmatter.TheCO2andother
nonCO2grreenhousegases(GHG),largelymethane(CH4)andnitrousoxide(N2O),areinturn
releasedtotheatmospherebyplantrespiration,bydecompositionofdeadplantbiomassandsoil
organicmatter,andbycombustion(Section11.2).Anthropogeniclanduseactivities(e.g.,
managementofcroplands,forests,grasslands,wetlands),andchangesinlanduse/cover(e.g.,
conversionofforestlandsandgrasslandstocroplandandpasture,afforestation)causechanges
superimposedonthesenaturalfluxes.AFOLUactivitiesleadtobothsourcesofCO2(e.g.,
deforestation,peatlanddrainage)andsinksofCO2(e.g.,afforestation,managementforsoilcarbon
sequestration),andtononCO2emissionsprimarilyfromagriculture(e.g.,CH4fromlivestockandrice
cultivation,N2Ofrommanurestorageandagriculturalsoilsandbiomassburning(Section11.2).
ThemainmitigationoptionswithinAFOLUinvolveoneormoreofthreestrategies:
reduction/preventionofemissionstotheatmospherebyconservingexistingcarbonpoolsinsoilsor
vegetationthatwouldotherwisebelostorbyreducingemissionsofCH4andN2O(Section11.3);
sequestrationenhancingtheuptakeofcarboninterrestrialreservoirs,andtherebyremovingCO2
fromtheatmosphere(Section11.3);andreducingCO2emissionsbysubstitutionofbiological
productsforfossilfuels(Appendix1)orenergyintensiveproducts(Section11.4).Demandside
options(e.g.,bylifestylechanges,reducinglossesandwastesoffood,changesinhumandiet,
changesinwoodconsumption),thoughknowntobedifficulttoimplement,mayalsoplayarole
(Section11.4).
LandisthecriticalresourcefortheAFOLUsectoranditprovidesfoodandfoddertofeedtheEarths
populationof~7billion,andfibreandfuelforavarietyofpurposes.Itprovideslivelihoodsfor
billionsofpeopleworldwide.Itisfiniteandprovidesamultitudeofgoodsandecosystemservices
thatarefundamentaltohumanwellbeing(MEA,2005).Humaneconomiesandqualityoflifeare
directlydependentontheservicesandtheresourcesprovidedbyland.Figure11.1showsthemany
provisioning,regulating,culturalandsupportingservicesprovidedbyland,ofwhichclimate
regulationisjustone.ImplementingmitigationoptionsintheAFOLUsectormaypotentiallyaffect
otherservicesprovidedbylandinpositiveornegativeways.
IntheIntergovernmentalPanelonClimateChange(IPCC)SecondAssessmentReport(SAR)(IPCC,
1996)andintheFourthAssessmentReport(AR4)(IPCC,2007a),agriculturalandforestrymitigation
weredealtwithinseparatechapters.IntheThirdAssessmentReport(TAR)(IPCC,2001),therewere
noseparatesectoralchaptersoneitheragricultureorforestry.IntheFifthAssessmentReport(AR5),
forthefirsttime,thevastmajorityoftheterrestriallandsurface,comprisingagriculture,forestry
andotherlanduse(AFOLU)(IPCC,2006),isconsideredtogetherinasinglechapter,though
settlements(whichareimportant,withurbanareasforecastedtotripleinsizefrom2000global
extentby2030;Section12.2),aredealtwithinChapter12.Thisapproachensuresthatallland
basedmitigationoptionscanbeconsideredtogether;itminimizestheriskofdoublecountingor
inconsistenttreatment(e.g.,differentassumptionsaboutavailableland)betweendifferentland
categories,andallowstheconsiderationofsystemicfeedbacksbetweenmitigationoptionsrelated
tothelandsurface(Section11.4).ConsideringAFOLUinasinglechapterallowsphenomena
1
ThetermAFOLUusedhereconsistentwiththe(IPCC,2006)GuidelinesisalsoconsistentwithLandUse,LandUseChange
andForestry(LULUCF)(IPCC,2003),andothersimilartermsusedinthescientificliterature.
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commonacrosslandusetypes,suchascompetitionforland(Smithetal.,2010;Lambinand
Meyfroidt,2011)andwater(e.g.,Jacksonetal.,2007),cobenefits(Sandoretal.,2002;Venteretal.,
2009),adversesideeffects(Section11.7)andinteractionsbetweenmitigationandadaptation
(Section11.5)tobeconsideredconsistently.Thecomplexnatureoflandpresentsauniquerangeof
barriersandopportunities(Section11.8),andpoliciestopromotemitigationintheAFOLUsector
(Section11.10)needtotakeaccountofthiscomplexity.

Figure 11.1. Multiple ecosystem services, goods and benefits provided by land (after MEA, 2005;
UNEP-WCMC, 2011). Mitigation actions aim to enhance climate regulation, but this is only one of the
many functions fulfilled by land.
Inthischapter,weconsiderthecompetingusesoflandformitigationandforprovidingother
services(Sections11.7;11.8).UnlikethechaptersonagricultureandforestryinAR4,impactsof
sourcingbioenergyfromtheAFOLUsectorareconsideredexplicitlyinadedicatedappendix(Section
11.13).Alsonewtothisassessmentistheexplicitconsiderationoffood/dietarydemandside
optionsforGHGmitigationintheAFOLUsector(Section11.4),andsomeconsiderationof
freshwaterfisheriesandaquaculture,whichmaycompetewiththeagricultureandforestrysectors,
mainlythroughtheirrequirementsforlandand/orwater,andindirectly,byprovidingfishandother
productstothesamemarketsasanimalhusbandry.
ThischapterdealswithAFOLUinanintegratedwaywithrespecttotheunderlyingscenario
projectionsofpopulationgrowth,economicgrowth,dietarychange,landusechange(LUC),andcost
ofmitigation.Wedrawevidencefrombothbottomupstudiesthatestimatemitigationpotentials
atsmallscalesorforindividualoptionsortechnologiesandthenscaleup,andmultisectoraltop
downstudiesthatconsiderAFOLUasjustonecomponentofatotalmultisectorsystemresponse
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(Section11.9).Inthischapter,weprovideupdatesonemissionstrendsandchangesindriversand
pressuresintheAFOLUsector(Section11.2),describethepracticesavailableintheAFOLUsector
(Section11.3),andproviderefinedestimatesofmitigationcostsandpotentialsfortheAFOLU
sector,bysynthesisingstudiesthathavebecomeavailablesinceIPCCAR4(Section11.6).We
concludethechapterbyidentifyinggapsinknowledgeanddata(Section11.11),providinga
selectionofFrequentlyAskedQuestions(Section11.12),andpresentinganAppendixonbioenergy
toupdatetheIPCCSpecialReportonRenewableEnergySourcesandClimateChangeMitigation
(SRREN)(IPCC,2011;seeSection11.13).
11.2 Newdevelopmentsinemissiontrendsanddrivers
EstimatingandreportingtheanthropogeniccomponentofgrossandnetAFOLUGHGfluxestothe
atmosphere,globally,regionally,andatcountrylevel,isdifficultcomparedtoothersectors.First,it
isnotalwayspossibletoseparateanthropogenicandnaturalGHGfluxesfromland.Second,the
inputdatanecessarytoestimateGHGemissionsgloballyandregionally,oftenbasedoncountry
levelstatisticsoronremotesensinginformation,areveryuncertain.Third,methodsforestimating
GHGemissionsusearangeofapproaches,fromsimpledefaultmethodologiessuchasthose
specifiedintheIPCCGHGGuidelines2(IPCC,2006),tomorecomplexestimatesbasedonterrestrial
carboncyclemodellingand/orremotesensinginformation.GlobaltrendsintotalGHGemissions
fromAFOLUactivitiesbetween1971and2010areshowninFigure11.2;Figure11.3showstrendsof
majordriversofemissions.
11.2.1 Supplyandconsumptiontrendsinagricultureandforestry
In2010worldagriculturallandoccupied4889Mha,anincreaseof7%(311Mha)since1970
(FAOSTAT,2013).Agriculturallandareahasdecreasedby53Mhasince2000duetoadeclineofthe
croplandarea(OrganisationforEconomicCooperationandDevelopment(OECD)1990,Economiesin
Transition(EIT))andadecreaseinpermanentmeadowsandpastures(OECD1990andAsia).The
averageamountofcroplandandpasturelandpercapitain1970was0.4and0.8haandby2010this
haddecreasedto0.2and0.5hapercapita,respectively(FAOSTAT,2013).
Changinglandusepractices,technologicaladvancementandvarietalimprovementhaveenabled
worldgrainharveststodoublefrom1.2to2.5billiontonnesperyearbetween1970and2010
(FAOSTAT,2012).Averageworldcerealyieldsincreasedfrom1600to3030kg/haoverthesame
period(FAOSTAT,2012)whiletherehasalsobeena233%increaseinglobalfertilizerusefrom32to
106Mt/yr,anda73%increaseintheirrigatedcroplandarea(FAOSTAT,2013).
Globally,since1970,therehasbeena1.4foldincreaseinthenumbersofcattleandbuffalo,sheep
andgoats(whichiscloselylinkedtothetrendofCH4emissionsinthesector;Section11.2.2),and
increasesof1.6and3.7foldforpigsandpoultry,respectively(FAOSTAT,2013).Majorregional
trendsbetween1970and2010includeadecreaseinthetotalnumberofanimalsinEconomiesin
Transition(EIT)andOECD1990(exceptpoultry),andcontinuousgrowthinotherregions,
particularlyMiddleEastandAfrica(MAF)andAsia(Figure11.3b).Thesoaringdemandforfishhas
ledtotheintensificationoffreshwaterandmarinefisheriesworldwide,andanincreasedfreshwater
fisheriescatchthattopped11Mtin2010,althoughthemarinefisheriescatchhasslowlydeclined
(78Mtin2010;FAOSTAT,2013).Thelatteris,however,compensatedininternationalmarketsby
2
PartiestotheUnitedNationsFrameworkConventiononClimateChange(UNFCCC)reportnetGHGemissionsaccording
toIPCCmethodologies(IPCC,2006).Reportingisbasedonarangeofmethodsandapproachesdependentonavailable
dataandnationalcapacities,fromdefaultequationsandemissionfactorsapplicabletoglobalorregionalcasesand
assuminginstantaneousemissionsofallcarbonthatwillbeeventuallylostfromthesystemfollowinghumanaction(Tier1)
tomorecomplexapproachessuchasmodelbasedspatialanalyses(Tier3).
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tremendousgrowthofaquacultureproductionto60Mtwetweightin2010,ofwhich37Mt
originatefromfreshwater,overwhelminglyinAsia(FAOSTAT,2013).
Between1970and2010,globaldailypercapitafoodavailability,expressedinenergyunits,hasrisen
from10,008to11,850kJ(2391to2831kcal),anincreaseof18.4%;growthinMAF(10,716kJin
2010)hasbeen22%,andinAsia,32%(11,327kJin2010;FAOSTAT,2013).Thepercentageofanimal
productsindailypercapitatotalfoodconsumptionhasincreasedconsistentlyinAsiasince1970(7
to16%),remainedconstantinMAF(8%)and,since1985,hasdecreasedinOECD1990countries(32
to28%),comprising,respectively,1,790,870and3,800kJin2010(FAOSTAT,2013).
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Figure 11.2. Top) AFOLU emissions for the last four decades. For the agricultural sub-sectors
emissions are shown for separate categories, based on FAOSTAT, (2013). Emissions from crop
residues, manure applied to soils, manure left on pasture, cultivated organic soils, and synthetic
fertilizers are typically aggregated to the category agricultural soils for IPCC reporting. For the
Forestry and Other Land Use (FOLU) sub-sector data are from the Houghton bookkeeping model
results (Houghton et al., 2012). Emissions from drained peat and peat fires are, for the 1970s and the
1980s, from JRC/PBL (2012), derived from Hooijer et al. (2010) and van der Werf et al. (2006) and for
the 1990s and the 2000s, from FAOSTAT, 2013; Bottom) Emissions from AFOLU for each RC5
region (see Annex II.2) using data from JRC/PBL (2012), with emissions from energy end-use in the
AFOLU sector from IEA (2012a) included in a single aggregated category, see Annex II.9, used in the
AFOLU section of Chapter 5.7.4 for cross-sectoral comparisons. The direct emission data from
JRC/PBL (2012); see Annex II.9) represents land-based CO2 emissions from forest and peat fires and
decay that approximate to CO2 flux from anthopogenic emission sources in the FOLU sub-sector.
Differences between FAOSTAT/Houghton data and JRC/PBL (2012) are discussed in the text. See
Figures 11.4 and 11.6 for the range of differences among available databases for AFOLU emissions.
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Figure 11.3. Global trends from 1971 to 2010 in (top) area of land use (forest land available only
from 1990; 1000 Mha) and amount of N fertilizer use (million tonnes), and (bottom) number of
livestock (million head) and poultry (billion head). Data presented by regions: 1) Asia, 2) LAM, 3)
MAF, 4) OECD-1990, 5) EIT (FAOSTAT, 2013). The area extent of AFOLU land-use categories, from
FAOSTAT, (2013): Cropland corresponds to the sum of FAOSTAT categories arable land and
temporary crops and coincides with the IPCC category (IPCC, 2003); Forest is defined according to
FAO (2010); countries reporting to UNFCCC may use different definitions. Permanent meadows and
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pasture, are a subset of IPCC category grassland (IPCC, 2003), as the latter, by definition, also
includes unmanaged natural grassland ecosystems.
11.2.2 TrendsofGHGemissionsfromagriculture
Organicandinorganicmaterialprovidedasinputsoroutputinthemanagementofagricultural
systemsaretypicallybrokendownthroughbacterialprocesses,releasingsignificantamountsofCO2,
CH4,andN2Ototheatmosphere.OnlyagriculturalnonCO2sourcesarereportedasanthropogenic
GHGemissions,however.TheCO2emittedisconsideredneutral,beingassociatedtoannualcycles
ofcarbonfixationandoxidationthroughphotosynthesis.Theagriculturalsectoristhelargest
contributortoglobalanthropogenicnonCO2GHGs,accountingfor56%ofemissionsin2005(U.S.
EPA,2011).Otherimportant,albeitmuchsmallernonCO2emissionssourcesfromotherAFOLU
categories,andthusnottreatedhere,includefertilizerapplicationsinforests.AnnualtotalnonCO2
GHGemissionsfromagriculturein2010areestimatedtobe5.25.8GtCO2eq/yr(FAOSTAT,2013;
Tubielloetal.,2013)andcomprisedabout1012%ofglobalanthropogenicemissions.FossilfuelCO2
emissionsoncroplandsaddedanother0.40.6GtCO2eq/yrin2010fromagriculturalusein
machinery,suchastractors,irrigationpumps,etc.(Ceschiaetal.,2010;FAOSTAT,2013),butthese
emissionsareaccountedforintheenergysectorratherthantheAFOLUsector.Between1990and
2010,agriculturalnonCO2emissionsgrewby0.9%/yr,withaslightincreaseingrowthratesafter
2005(Tubielloetal.,2013).

Figure 11.4. Data comparison between FAOSTAT (2013), U.S. EPA (2006), and EDGAR (JRC/PBL,
2012) databases for key agricultural emission categories, grouped as agricultural soils, enteric
fermentation, manure management systems, and rice cultivation, for 2005. Whiskers represent 95%
confidence intervals of global aggregated categories, computed using IPCC guidelines (IPCC, 2006)
for uncertainty estimation (from Tubiello et al., 2013).
ThreeindependentsourcesofdisaggregatednonCO2 GHGemissionsestimatesfromagricultureat
global,regional,andnationallevelsareavailable.TheyaremostlybasedonFAOSTATactivitydata
andIPCCTier1approaches(IPCC,2006;FAOSTAT,2012;JRC/PBL,2012;U.S.EPA,2013).EDGARand
FAOSTATalsoprovidedataatcountrylevel.Estimatesofglobalemissionsforentericfermentation,
manuremanagementandmanure,estimatedusingIPCCTier2/3approachesarealsoavailable(e.g.,
(Herreroetal.,2013).TheFAOSTAT,EDGARandU.S.EPAestimatesareslightlydifferent,although
statisticallyconsistentgiventhelargeuncertaintiesinIPCCdefaultmethodologies(Tubielloetal.,
2013).Theycoveremissionsfromentericfermentation,manuredepositedonpasture,synthetic
fertilizers,ricecultivation,manuremanagement,cropresidues,biomassburning,andmanure
appliedtosoils.Entericfermentation,biomassburning,andricecultivationarereportedseparately
underIPCCinventoryguidelines,withtheremainingcategoriesaggregatedintoagriculturalsoils.
AccordingtoEDGARandFAOSTAT,emissionsfromentericfermentationarethelargestemission
source,whileUSEPAlistsemissionsfromagriculturalsoilsasthedominantsource(Figure11.4).
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ThefollowinganalysesrefertoannualtotalnonCO2emissionsbyallcategories.Allthreedatabases
agreethatthatentericfermentationandagriculturalsoilsrepresenttogetherabout70%oftotal
emissions,followedbypaddyricecultivation(911%),biomassburning(612%)andmanure
management(78%).Ifallemissioncategoriesaredisaggregated,bothEDGARandFAOSTATagree
thatthelargestemittingcategoriesafterentericfermentation(3240%oftotalagriculture
emissions)aremanuredepositedonpasture(15%)andsyntheticfertilizer(12%),bothcontributing
toemissionsfromagriculturalsoils.Paddyricecultivation(11%)isamajorsourceofglobalCH4
emissions,whichin2010wereestimatedtobe493723MtCO2eq/yr.Thelowerendoftherange
correspondstoestimatesbyFAO(FAOSTAT,2013),withEDGARandUSEPAdataatthehigherend.
Independentanalysessuggestthatemissionsfromricemaybeatthelowerendoftheestimated
range(Yanetal.,2009).
EntericFermentation.Globalemissionsofthisimportantcategorygrewfrom1.4to2.1GtCO2eq/yr
between1961and2010,withaverageannualgrowthratesof0.70%(FAOSTAT,2013).Emission
growthslowedduringthe1990scomparedtothelongtermaverage,butbecamefasteragainafter
theyear2000.In2010,1.01.5GtCO2eq/yr(75%ofthetotalemissions),wereestimatedtocome
fromdevelopingcountries(FAOSTAT,2013).Overtheperiod20002010,AsiaandtheAmericas
contributedmost,followedbyAfricaandEurope(FAOSTAT,2013);seeFigure11.5).Emissionshave
grownmostinAfrica,onaverage2.4%/yr.InbothAsia(2.0%/yr)andtheAmericas(1.1%/yr),
emissionsgrewmoreslowly,anddecreasedinEurope(1.7%/yr).From2000to2010,cattle
contributedthelargestshare(75%ofthetotal),followedbybuffalo,sheepandgoats(FAOSTAT,
2013).
Manure.Globalemissionsfrommanure,aseitherorganicfertilizeroncroplandormanuredeposited
onpasture,grewbetween1961and2010from0.57to0.99GtCO2eq/yr.Emissionsgrewby1.1%/yr
onaverage.Manuredepositedonpastureledtofarlargeremissionsthanmanureappliedtosoilsas
organicfertilizer,with80%ofemissionsfromdepositedmanurescomingfromdevelopingcountries
(FAOSTAT,2013;Herreroetal.,2013).Thehighestemittingregionsfrom20002010werethe
Americas,AsiaandAfrica.GrowthoverthesameperiodwasmostpronouncedininAfrica,withan
averageof2.5%/yr,followedbyAsia(2.3%/yr),andtheAmericas(1.2%/yr),whiletherewasa
decreaseinEuropeof1.2%/yr.Twothirdsofthetotalcamefromgrazingcattle,withsmaller
contributionsfromsheepandgoats.Inthisdecade,emissionsfrommanureappliedtosoilsas
organicfertilizerweregreatestinAsia,theninEuropeandtheAmericas.Thoughthecontinentwith
thehighestgrowthratesof3.4%/yr,Africasshareintotalemissionsremainedsmall.Inthissub
category,swineandcattlecontributedmorethanthreequarters(77%)oftheemissions.Emissions
frommanuremanagementgrewfrom0.25to0.36GtCO2eq/yr,resultinginaverageannualgrowth
ratesofonly0.6%/yrduringtheperiod19612010.From20002010mostemissionscamefrom
Asia,thenEurope,andtheAmericas(Figure11.5).
SyntheticFertilizer.Emissionsfromsyntheticfertilizersgrewatanaveragerateof3.9%/yrfrom1961
to2010,withabsolutevaluesincreasingmorethan9fold,from0.07to0.68GtCO2eq/yr(Tubielloet
al.,2013).Consideringcurrenttrends,syntheticfertilizerswillbecomealargersourceofemissions
thanmanuredepositedonpastureinlessthan10yearsandthesecondlargestofallagricultural
emissioncategoriesafterentericfermentation.Closetothreequarters(70%)oftheseemissions
werefromdevelopingcountriesin2010.Inthedecade20002010,thelargestemitterbyfarwas
Asia,thentheAmericasandthenEurope(FAOSTAT,2012).EmissionsgrewinAsiaby5.3%/yr,in
Africaby2.0%/yr,andintheAmericasby1.5%/yr.EmissionsdecreasedinEurope(1.8%/yr).
Rice.Emissionsfromricearelimitedtopaddyricecultivation.From1961to2010,globalemissions
increasedwithaverageannualgrowthratesof0.4%/yr(FAOSTAT,2013)from0.37to0.52
GtCO2eq/yr.,Thegrowthinglobalemissionshasslowedinrecentdecades,consistentwithtrendsin
ricecultivatedarea.During20002010,thelargestshareofemissions(94%)camefromdeveloping
countries,withAsiabeingresponsibleforalmost90%ofthetotal(Figure11.5).Thelargestgrowth
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ofemissionstookplaceininAfrica(2.7%/yr),followedbyEurope(1.4%/yr).GrowthratesinAsiaand
theAmericasweremuchsmalleroverthesameperiod(0.40.7%/yr).

Figure 11.5. Regional data comparisons for key agricultural emission categories in 2010. Whiskers
represent 95% confidence intervals computed using IPCC guidelines (IPCC, 2006; Tubiello et al.,
2013). The data show that most of the differences between regions and databases are of the same
magnitude as the underlying emission uncertainties.
11.2.3 TrendsofGHGfluxesfromforestryandotherlanduse3
ThissectionfocusesonthemostsignificantnonagriculturalGHGfluxestotheatmosphereforwhich
thereareglobaltrenddata.FluxesresultingdirectlyfromanthropogenicFOLUactivityare
dominatedbyCO2fluxes,primarilyemissionsduetodeforestation,butalsouptakedueto
reforestation/regrowth.NonCO2greenhousegasemissionsfromFOLUaresmallincomparison,and
mainlyarisefrompeatdegradationthroughdrainageandbiomassfires(Box11.1;Box11.2).
FOLUaccountedforaboutathirdofanthropogenicCO2emissionsfrom1750to2011and12%of
emissionsin2000to2009(Table11.1).Atthesametime,atmosphericmeasurementsindicatethe
landasawholewasanetsinkforCO2,implyingaresidualterrestrialsinkoffsettingFOLUemissions
(Table11.1).Thissinkisconfirmedbyinventorymeasurementsinbothmanagedandunmanaged
forestsintemperateandtropicalregions(Phillipsetal.,1998;Luyssaertetal.,2008;Lewisetal.,
2009;Panetal.,2011).Asinkoftherightorderofmagnitudehasbeenaccountedforinmodelsasa
resultoftheindirecteffectsofhumanactivityonecosystems,i.e.,thefertilizingeffectsofincreased
levelsofCO2andNintheatmosphereandtheeffectsofclimatechange(WGIChapter6;(LeQur
etal.,2013),althoughsomeofitmaybeduetodirectAFOLUactivitiesnotaccountedforincurrent
3
Thetermforestryandotherlanduseusedhere,isconsistentwithAFOLUinthe(IPCC,2006)Guidelinesandconsistent
withLULUCF(IPCC,2003).
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estimates(Erbetal.,2013).ThissinkcapacityofforestsisrelevanttoAFOLUmitigationthrough
forestprotection.
GlobalFOLUCO2fluxestimates(Table11.1andFigure11.6)arebasedonawiderangeofdata
sources,andincludedifferentprocesses,definitions,anddifferentapproachestocalculating
emissions(Houghtonetal.,2012;LeQuretal.,2013;Pongratzetal.,2013).Thisleadstoalarge
rangeacrossglobalFOLUfluxestimates.Nonetheless,mostapproachesagreethattherehasbeena
declineinFOLUCO2emissionsoverthemostrecentyears.Thisislargelyduetoadecreasetherate
ofdeforestation(FAO,2010;FAOSTAT,2013).
Table 11.1 Net global CO2 flux from AFOLU
17502011 19801989 19901999 20002009

Cumulative
GtCO2 GtCO2/yr GtCO2/yr GtCO2/yr
IPCCWGICarbonBudget,Table6.1a:
NetAFOLUCO2fluxb 660 293 5.13 2.93 5.87 2.93 4.03 2.93
Residualterrestrialsinkc 550 330 5.50 4.03 9.90 4.40 9.53 4.40

Fossilfuelcombustions
1338 110 20.17 1.47 23.47 1.83 28.60 2.20
andcementproductiond
MetaanalysesofnetAFOLUCO2flux:
IPCCWGI,Table6.2e
4.77 2.57 4.40 2.20 2.93 2.20
Houghtonetal,2012f 4.18 1.83 4.14 1.83 4.03 1.83

Notes: Positive fluxes represent net emissions and negative fluxes represent net sinks.
(a) Selected components of the carbon budget in IPCC, Fifth Assessment Report, Working Group 1,
Chapter 6, Table 6.1.
(b) From the bookkeeping model accounting method of Houghton (2003) updated in Houghton et al.,
(2012), uncertainty based on expert judgement; 90% confidence uncertainty interval.
(c) Calculated as residual of other terms in the carbon budget.
(d) Fossil fuel flux shown for comparison (Boden et al., 2011).
(e) Average of estimates from 12 process models, only 5 were updated to 2009 and included in the
20002009 mean. Uncertainty based on standard deviation across models, 90% confidence
uncertainty interval (WGI Chapter 6).
(f) Average of 13 estimates including process models, bookkeeping model and satellite/model
approaches, only four were updated to 2009 and included in the 20002009 mean. Uncertainty based
on expert judgment.
RegionaltrendsinFOLUCO2emissionsareshowninFigure11.7.ModelresultsindicateFOLU
emissionspeakedinthe1980sinAsiaandLAMregionsanddeclinedthereafter.Thisisconsistent
withareducedrateofdeforestation,mostnotablyinBrazil4,andsomeareasofafforestation,the
lattermostnotablyinChina,VietnamandIndia(FAOSTAT,2013).InMAFthepictureismixed,with
theHoughtonmodel(Houghtonetal.,2012)showingacontinuingincreasefromthe1970stothe
2000s,whiletheVISITmodel(Katoetal.,2011)indicatesasmallsinkinthe2000s.Theresultsfor
temperateandborealareasrepresentedbyOECDandEITregionsareverymixedrangingfromlarge
netsources(ISAM)tosmallnetsinks.Thegeneralpictureintemperateandborealregionsisof
decliningemissionsand/orincreasingsinks.Theseregionsincludelargeareasofmanagedforests
4
ForannualdeforestationratesinBrazilseehttp://www.obt.inpe.br/prodes/index.php
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subjectedtoharvestandregrowth,andareasofreforestation(e.g.,followingcropland
abandonmentintheUnitedStatesandEurope).Thusresultsaresensitivetowhetherandhowthe
modelsincludeforestmanagementandenvironmentaleffectsonregrowingforests.
Thebookkeepingmodelmethod(Houghton,2003;Houghtonetal.,2012)usesregionalbiomass,
growthanddecayratesfromtheinventoryliteraturethatarenotvariedtoaccountforchangesin
climateorCO2.Itincludesforestmanagementassociatedwithshiftingcultivationintropicalforest
regionsaswellasglobalwoodharvestandregrowthcycles.Theprimarysourceofdataforthemost
recentdecadesisFAOforestareaandwoodharvest(FAO,2010). FAOSTAT (2013) usesthedefault
IPCCmethodologiestocomputestockdifferencetoestimateemissionsandsinksfromforest
management,carbonlossassociatedwithforestconversiontootherlandusesasaproxyfor
emissionsfromdeforestation,GFED4dataonburnedareatoestimateemissionsfrompeatfires,and
spatialanalysestodetermineemissionsfromdrainedorganicsoils(IPCC,2007b).Theothermodels
inFigures11.6and11.7areprocessbasedterrestrialecosystemmodelsthatsimulatechanging
plantbiomassandcarbonfluxes,andincludeclimateandCO2effects,withafewnowincludingthe
nitrogencycle(Zaehleetal.,2011;Jainetal.,2013).Inclusionofthenitrogencycleresultsinmuch
highermodellednetemissionsintheISAMmodel(Jainetal.,2013)asNlimitationduetoharvest
removalslimitsforestregrowthrates,particularlyintemperateandborealforests.Changeinland
coverintheprocessmodelsisfromtheHYDEdataset(Goldewijketal.,2011;Hurttetal.,2011),
basedonFAOcroplandandpastureareachangedata.Onlysomeprocessmodelsincludeforest
managementintermsofshiftingcultivation(VISIT)orwoodharvestandforestdegradation(ISAM);
noneaccountforemissionsfrompeatlands(seeBox11.1).

Figure 11.6. Global net CO2 emission estimates from FOLU including LUC. Black line: Houghton
bookkeeping model approach updated to 2010 as in (Houghton et al., 2012), including LUC and forest
management but no peatlands. Red lines: EDGAR LULUCF emissions derived from the GFED 2.0
database (van der Werf et al., 2006) of emissions due to all forest fires (includes both FOLU and non-
FOLU fires), with (solid line) and without (dotted line) peat fires and decay. Green lines: emissions
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from land-use change and management from FAO agricultural and forest inventory data (FAOSTAT,
2013), shown with (solid line) and without (dotted line) peat fires and peat degradation. Dark red line:
deforestation and degradation fires only based on satellite fire data from GFED 3.0 database (van der
Werf et al., 2010). Light blue lines: a selection of process-based vegetation model results, updated for
WGI Chapter 6; (Le Qur et al., 2013) include LUC, some include forest management, none include
peatlands. LPJ-wsl: (Poulter et al., 2010); BernCC: (Stocker et al., 2011); VISIT: (Kato et al., 2011);
ISAM: (Jain et al., 2013), IMAGE 2.4 (Van Minnen et al., 2009, deforestation only). The symbols and
transparent rectangles represent mean values for the tropics only. Circles: tropical deforestation and
forest management (Pan et al., 2011), using the Houghton (2003) bookkeeping model approach and
FAO data. Triangle: tropical deforestation only, based on satellite forest area and biomass data
(Baccini et al., 2012; Harris et al., 2012). Square: tropical deforestation and forest management,
based on satellite forest area and biomass data and FAO data using bookkeeping model (Baccini et
al., 2012; Harris et al., 2012).

Figure 11.7. Regional trends in net CO2 fluxes from FOLU (including LUC). Houghton bookkeeping
model approach updated to 2010 as in Houghton et al., (2012) and five process-based vegetation
models updated to 2010 for WGI Chapter 6; (Le Qur et al., 2013): LPJ-wsl: (Poulter et al., 2010);
BernCC: (Stocker et al., 2011); VISIT: (Kato et al., 2011); ISAM: (Jain et al., 2013), IMAGE 2.4: ((Van
Minnen et al., 2009), deforestation only). Only the FAO estimates (FAOSTAT, 2013) include
peatlands.
Satelliteestimatesofchangeinlandcoverhavebeencombinedwithmodelapproachestocalculate
tropicalforestemissions(Hansenetal.,2010).Thedataishighresolutionandverifiable,butonly
coversrecentdecades,anddoesnotaccountforfluxesduetoLUCthatoccurredpriortothestartof
thestudyperiod(e.g.,decayorregrowth).Satellitedataalonecannotdistinguishthecauseof
changeinlanduse(deforestation,naturaldisturbance,management),butcanbeusedin
conjunctionwithactivitydataforattribution(Baccinietal.,2012).Arecentdevelopmentistheuse
ofsatellitebasedforestbiomassestimates(Saatchietal.,2011)togetherwithsatellitelandcover
changeinthetropicstoestimategrossdeforestationemissions(Harrisetal.,2012)orfurther
combiningitwithFAOandotheractivitydatatoestimatenetfluxesfromforestareachangeand
forestmanagement(Baccinietal.,2012).
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Figure 11.8. Breakdown of mean annual CO2 fluxes from deforestation and forest management in
tropical countries (GtCO2/yr). Pan et al. (2011) estimates are based on FAO data and the Houghton
bookkeeping model (Houghton, 2003). Baccini et al. (2012) estimates are based on satellite land
cover change and biomass data with FAO data, and the Houghton (2003) bookkeeping model, with
the detailed breakdown of these results shown in Houghton, (2013). Harris et al. (2012) estimates are
based on satellite land cover change and biomass data.
Adetailedbreakdownofthecomponentfluxesin(Baccinietal.,2012)isshowninFigure11.8.
Wherethereistemporaryforestlossthroughmanagement,grossforestemissionscanbeashigh
asforpermanentforestloss(deforestation),butarelargelybalancedbygrossuptakeinregrowing
forest,sonetemissionsaresmall.Whenregrowthdoesnotbalanceremovals,itleadstoa
degradationofforestcarbonstocks.InBaccinietal.(2012)thisdegradationwasresponsiblefor15%
oftotalnetemissionsfromtropicalforests(Houghton,2013;Figure11.8).HuangandAsner(2010)
estimatedthatforestdegradationintheAmazon,particularlyfromselectivelogging,isresponsible
for1519%higherCemissionsthanreportedfromdeforestationalone.Panetal.(2011)separated
grossemissionsfromdeforestationandforestmanagementontheonehand,fromuptakein
regrowingvegetationontheother.Deforestationemissionsdeclinefromthe1990sto20002007,
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anduptakeinregrowingvegetationincreases,bothcontributingtothedeclineinnettropicalCO2
emissions.
SatellitefiredatahasalsobeenusedtoestimateFOLUemissions(vanderWerfetal.,2006);Box
11.2).TheEDGAR5databaseLandUseChangeandForestryemissionsarebasedonforestandpeat
firedatafromGFED2.0(vanderWerfetal.,2006),withadditionalestimatesofpostburndecay,
andemissionsfromdegradedpeatlandsbasedon(Joosten,2010);Box11.1).However,GFED2.0fire
datadoesnotdistinguishanthropogenicAFOLUfiresfromotherfires,unlikeGFED3.0(vanderWerf
etal.,2010);Box11.2).FiredataalsodoesnotcapturesignificantadditionalAFOLUfluxesdueto
landclearingandforestmanagementthatisbyharvestratherthanfire(e.g.,deforestationactivities
outsidethehumidtropics)orregrowthfollowingclearing.ThusEDGARdataonlyapproximatesthe
FOLUflux.
FAOestimatesAFOLUGHGemissions(FAOSTAT,2013)6basedonIPCCTier1methodology7.With
referencetothedecade20012010,totalGHGFOLUemissionswere3.2GtCO2eq/yrincluding
deforestation(3.8GtCO2eq/yr),forestdegradationandforestmanagement(1.8GtCO2eq/yr),
biomassfiresincludingpeatlandfires(0.3GtCO2eq/yr),anddrainedpeatlands(0.9GtCO2eq/yr).The
FAOestimatedtotalmeannetGHGFOLUfluxtotheatmospheredecreasedfrom3.9GtCO2eq/yrin
19912000to3.2GtCO2eq/yrin20012010(FAOSTAT,2013).
Box 11.1 AFOLU GHG emissions from peatlands and mangroves

Undisturbedwaterloggedpeatlands(organicsoils)storealargeamountofcarbonandactassmall
netsinks(Hooijeretal.,2010).Drainageofpeatlandsforagricultureandforestryresultsinarapid
increaseindecompositionrates,leadingtoincreasedemissionsofCO2,andN2O,andvulnerabilityto
furtherGHGemissionsthroughfire.TheFAOemissionsdatabaseestimatesglobally250,000km2of
drainedorganicsoilsundercroplandandgrassland,withtotalGHGemissionsof0.9GtCO2eq/yrin
2010withthelargestcontributionsfromAsia(0.44GtCO2eq/yr)andEurope(0.18GtCO2eq/yr)
(FAOSTAT,2013).Joosten(2010),estimatedthatthereare>500,000km2ofdrainedpeatlandsinthe
worldincludingunderforests,withCO2emissionshavingincreasedfrom1.06GtCO2/yrin1990to
1.30GtCO2/yrin2008,despiteadecreasingtrendinAnnexIcountries,from0.65to0.49GtCO2/yr,
primarilyduetonaturalandartificialrewettingofpeatlands.InSoutheastAsia,CO2emissionsfrom
drainedpeatlandsin2006were0.610.25GtCO2/yr(Hooijeretal.,2010).Satelliteestimates
indicatethatpeatfiresinequatorialAsiaemittedonaverage0.39GtCO2eq/yrovertheperiod
19972009(vanderWerfetal.,2010),butonly0.2GtCO2eq/yrovertheperiod19982009.This
lowerfigureisconsistentwithrecentindependentFAOestimatesoverthesameperiodandregion.
Mangroveecosystemshavedeclinedinareaby20%(36Mha)since1980,althoughtherateofloss
hasbeenslowinginrecentyears,reflectinganincreasedawarenessofthevalueoftheseecosystems
(FAO,2007).Arecentstudyestimatedthatdeforestationofmangrovesreleased0.07to0.42
GtCO2/yr(Donatoetal.,2011).
5
http://edgar.jrc.ec.europa.eu/index.php
6
http://faostat.fao.org/
7
PartiestotheUNFCCCreportnetGHGemissionsaccordingtoIPCCmethodologies(IPCC,2003,2006).Reportingisbased
onarangeofmethodsandapproachesdependentonavailabledataandnationalcapacities,fromdefaultequationsand
emissionfactorsapplicabletoglobalorregionalcasesandassuminginstantaneousemissionsofallcarbonthatwillbe
eventuallylostfromthesystemfollowinghumanaction(Tier1)tomorecomplexapproachessuchasmodelbasedspatial
analyses(Tier3).
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Box 11.2. AFOLU GHG emissions from fires

BurningvegetationreleasesCO2,CH4,N2O,ozoneprecursorsandaerosols(includingblackcarbon)
totheatmosphere.Whenvegetationregrowsafterafire,ittakesupCO2andnitrogen.
Anthropogeniclandmanagementorlandconversionfireactivitiesleadingtopermanentclearance
orincreasinglevelsofdisturbanceresultinnetemissionstotheatmosphereovertime.Satellite
detectionoffireoccurrenceandpersistencehasbeenusedtoestimatefireemissions(e.g.,GFED2.0
database;(vanderWerfetal.,2006).Itishardtoseparatethecausesoffireasnaturalor
anthropogenic,especiallyasthedriversareoftencombined.AnupdateoftheGFEDmethodology
nowdistinguishesFOLUdeforestationanddegradationfiresfromothermanagementfires(GFED3.0
database;(vanderWerfetal.,2010);Figure11.6).Theestimatedtropicaldeforestationand
degradationfireemissionswere1.39GtCO2eq/yrduring1997to2009(totalcarbonincludingCO2,
CH4,COandblackcarbon),20%ofallfireemissions.CarbondioxideFOLUfireemissionsarealready
includedaspartoftheglobalmodelsresultssuchasthosepresentedinTable1.1andFigures11.6
and11.7.Accordingto(FAOSTAT,2013)8,in2010thenonCO2componentofdeforestationand
forestdegradationfirestotalled0.1GtCO2eq/yr,withforestmanagementandpeatlandfires(Box
11.1)responsibleforanadditional0.2GtCO2eq/yr.
11.3 Mitigationtechnologyoptionsandpractices,andbehaviouralaspects
Greenhousegasescanbereducedbysupplysidemitigationoptions(i.e.,byreducingGHGemissions
perunitofland/animal,orperunitofproduct),orbydemandsideoptions(e.g.,bychanging
demandforfoodandfibreproducts,reducingwaste).InIPCCAR4,theforestrychapter(Nabuurset
al.,2007)consideredsomedemandsideoptions,buttheagriculturechapterfocusedonsupplyside
optionsonly(Nabuursetal.,2007;Smithetal.,2007).Inthissection,wediscussonlysupplyside
options(Section11.3.1).DemandsideoptionsarediscussedinSection11.4.
MitigationactivitiesintheAFOLUsectorcanreduceclimateforcingindifferentways:
ReductionsinCH4orN2Oemissionsfromcroplands,grazinglands,andlivestock.
Conservationofexistingcarbonstocks,e.g.,conservationofforestbiomass,peatlands,andsoil
carbonthatwouldotherwisebelost.
Reductionsofcarbonlossesfrombiotaandsoils,e.g.,throughmanagementchangeswithinthe
samelandusetype(e.g.,reducingsoilcarbonlossbyswitchingfromtillagetonotillcropping)
orbyreducinglossesofcarbonrichecosystems,e.g.,reduceddeforestation,rewettingof
drainedpeatlands.
Enhancementofcarbonsequestrationinsoils,biota,andlonglivedproductsthroughincreases
intheareaofcarbonrichecosystemssuchasforests(afforestation,reforestation),increased
carbonstorageperunitarea,e.g.,increasedstockingdensityinforests,carbonsequestrationin
soils,andwooduseinconstructionactivities.
Changesinalbedoresultingfromlanduseandlandcoverchangethatincreasereflectionof
visiblelight.
ProvisionofproductswithlowGHGemissionsthatcanreplaceproductswithhigherGHG
emissionsfordeliveringthesameservice(e.g.,replacementofconcreteandsteelinbuildings
withwood,somebioenergyoptions;seeSection11.13).
8
FOLUGHGemissionsbyfiresinclude,asperIPCCGHGguidelines,allfiresonmanagedland.Mostcurrent
FOLUestimatesarelimitedhowevertofiresassociatedtodeforestation,forestmanagementandpeatfires.
Emissionsfromprescribedburningofsavannahsarereportedunderagriculture.BothCO2andnonCO2
emissionsareaccountedundertheseFOLUcomponents,butCO2emissionsdominate.
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Reductionsofdirect(e.g.,agriculturalmachinery,pumps,fishingcraft)orindirect(e.g.,
productionoffertilizers,emissionsresultingfromfossilenergyuseinagriculture,fisheries,
aquaculture,andforestryorfromproductionofinputs);thoughindirectemissionreductions
areaccountedforintheenergyendusesectors(buildings,industry,energygeneration,
transport)soarenotdiscussedfurtherindetailinthischapter.
11.3.1 Supplysidemitigationoptions
Mitigationpotentialsforagriculturalmitigationoptionsweregivenonaperareaandperanimal
inAR4(Nabuursetal.,2007;Smithetal.,2007).AlloptionsaresummarizedinTable11.2with
impactsoneachGHGnoted,andacategorizationoftechnicalmitigationpotential,easeof
implementation,andavailability(supportedbyrecentreferences).Thesemitigationoptionscan
haveadditivepositiveeffects,butcanalsoworkinopposition,e.g.,zerotillagecanreducethe
effectivenessofresidueincorporation.MostmitigationoptionsweredescribedindetailinAR4so
arenotdescribedfurtherhere;additionalpracticesthatwerenotconsideredinAR4,i.e.,biochar,
reducedemissionsfromaquaculture,andbioenergyaredescribedinBoxes11.3,11.4,and11.5,
respectively.
InadditiontotheperareaandperanimalmitigationoptionsdescribedinAR4,moreattentionhas
recentlybeenpaidtooptionsthatreduceemissionsintensitybyimprovingtheefficiencyof
production(i.e.,lessGHGemissionsperunitofagriculturalproduct;(Burneyetal.,2010;Bennetzen
etal.,2012);areductioninemissionsintensityhaslongbeenafeatureofagriculturalemissions
reductionandisonecomponentofaprocessmorebroadlyreferredtoassustainableintensification
(Tilmanetal.,2009;Godfrayetal.,2010;Smith,2013;Garnettetal.,2013).Thisprocessdoesnot
relyonreducinginputsperse,butreliesontheimplementationofnewpracticesthatresultinan
increaseinproductoutputthatislargerthananyassociatedincreaseinemissions(Smith,2013).
Eventhoughperareaemissionscouldincrease,thereisanetbenefitsincelesslandisrequiredfor
productionofthesamequantityofproduct.Thescopetoreduceemissionsintensityappears
considerablesincethereareverylargedifferencesinemissionsintensitybetweendifferentregions
oftheworld(Herreroetal.,2013).SustainableintensificationisdiscussedfurtherinSection11.4.2,
andtrendsinchangesinemissionsintensityarediscussedfurtherinSection11.6.
Table 11.2 Summary of supply-side mitigation options in the AFOLU sector. Technical Mitigation
Potential: Area = (tCO2eq/ha)/yr; Animal = percent reduction of enteric emissions. Low = < 1; <5%
(light colour), Medium = 110; 515% (medium colour), High = >10, >15% (dark colour); Ease of
Implementation (acceptance or adoption by land manager): Difficult (light colour), Medium (medium
colour), Easy, i.e., universal applicability (dark colour); Timescale for Implementation: Long-term (at
research and development stage; light colour), Mid-term (trials in place, within 510 years; medium
colour), Immediate (technology available now, dark colour).
TechnicalMitigation
Implementation
implementation
Timescalefor
References
Potential
Easeof
PracticesandImpacts
Categories
Forestry
Reducingdeforestation C:ConservationofexistingCpoolsinforestvegetationandsoilby 1
controllingdeforestationprotectingforestinreserves,andcontrolling
otheranthropogenicdisturbancessuchasfireandpestoutbreaks.
Reducingslashandburnagriculture,reducingforestfires.
CH4,N2O:Protectionofpeatlandforest,reductionofwildfires. 2
Afforestation/Reforestati C:Improvedbiomassstocksbyplantingtreesonnonforested 3,4,5
on agriculturallands.Thiscanincludeeithermonoculturesormixed
speciesplantings.Theseactivitiesmayalsoprovidearangeofother
social,economic,andenvironmentalbenefits.
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Forestmanagement C:Managementofforestsforsustainabletimberproductionincluding 6,7,8,9

extendingrotationcycles,reducingdamagetoremainingtrees,
reducingloggingwaste,implementingsoilconservationpractices,
fertilization,andusingwoodinamoreefficientway,sustainable
extortionofwoodenergy
CH4,N2O:Wildfirebehaviourmodification. 10,11,12
Forestrestoration C:Protectingsecondaryforestsandotherdegradedforestswhose 13,14
biomassandsoilCdensitiesarelessthantheirmaximumvalueand
allowingthemtosequesterCbynaturalorartificialregeneration,
rehabilitationofdegradedlands,longtermfallows.
CH4, N2O:Wildfirebehaviourmodification.
Landbasedagriculture
Croplandmanagement
Croplandsplant C:Highinputcarbonpractices,e.g.,improvedcropvarieties,crop 15,16,17
management rotation,useofcovercrops,perennialcroppingsystems,agricultural
biotechnology.
N2O: ImprovedNuseefficiency. 18
Croplandsnutrient C:Fertilizerinputtoincreaseyieldsandresidueinputs(especially 19,20
management importantinlowyieldingagriculture).
N2O: ChangingNfertilizerapplicationrate,fertilizertype,timing, 21,22,23,24,
precisionapplication,inhibitors. 25,105,106
Croplands C:Reducedtillageintensity;residueretention. 17,24, 26,27
tillage/residues
management
N2O: 28,96,97
CH4: 96
Croplandswater C:Improvedwateravailabilityincroplandincludingwaterharvesting 29
management andapplication.
CH4: Decompositionofplantresidues.
N2O: Drainagemanagementtoreduceemissions,reduce Nrunoff
leaching.
Croplandsrice C:Strawretention. 30
management CH4: Watermanagement,midseasonpaddydrainage. 31,32,98
N2O: Watermanagement,Nfertilizerapplicationrate,fertilizertype, 32,98,99
timing,precisionapplication.
Rewetpeatlandsdrained C:OngoingCO2emissionsfromreduceddrainage(butCH4 emissions 33
foragriculture mayincrease).
Croplandssetasideand C:Replantingtonativegrassesandtrees.IncreaseCsequestration. 34,35,36,37,
LUC 38
N2O: NinputsdecreasedresultinginreducedN2O.
Biocharapplication C:Soilamendmenttoincreasebiomassproductivity,andsequesterC 39,40, 41
(biocharwasnotcoveredinAR4soisdescribedinBox11.3).
N2O: ReducedNinputswillreduceemissions. 39,42
GrazingLand
Management
Grazinglandsplant C:Improvedgrassvarieties/swardcomposition,e.g.,deeprooting 43,44,45
management grasses,increasedproductivity,andnutrientmanagement.Appropriate
stockingdensities,carryingcapacity,fodderbanks,andimproved
grazingmanagement.
N2O 46
Grazinglandsanimal C:Appropriatestockingdensities,carryingcapacitymanagement, 43,47
management fodderbanksandimprovedgrazingmanagement,fodderproduction,
andfodderdiversification.
CH4
N2O: Stockingdensity,animalwastemanagement.
Grazingland C:Improveduseoffireforsustainablegrasslandmanagement.Fire
firemanagement preventionandimprovedprescribedburning.
Revegetation
Revegetation C:Theestablishmentofvegetationthatdoesnotmeetthedefinitions 48
ofafforestationandreforestation(e.g.,Atriplexspp.).
CH4:Increasedgrazingbyruminantsmayincreasenetemissions.
N2O: ReducedNinputswillreduceemissions.
Other
Organicsoils C:Soilcarbonrestorationonpeatlands;andavoidednetsoilcarbon 49
restoration emissionsusingimprovedlandmanagement.
CH4: Mayincrease.
Degradedsoils Landreclamation(afforestation,soilfertilitymanagement,water 100,101,
restoration conservationsoilnutrientsenhancement,improvedfallow). 102,103,104
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Biosolidapplications C:Useofanimalmanuresandotherbiosolidsforimproved 26
managementofnitrogen;integratedlivestockagriculturetechniques.
N2O
Livestock
Livestockfeeding CH4:Improvedfeedanddietaryadditivestoreduceemissionsfrom 50,51,52,53,
entericfermentation;includingimprovedforage,dietaryadditives 54,55,56,57,
(bioactivecompounds,fats),ionophores/antibiotics,propionate 58,59
enhancers,archaeainhibitors,nitrateandsulphatesupplements.
Livestockbreedingand CH4:Improvedbreedswithhigherproductivity(soloweremissionsper 54,55,56,58,
otherlongterm unitofproduct)orwithreducedemissionsfromentericfermentation; 60,61,62,63,
management microbialtechnologysuchasarchaealvaccines,methanotrophs, 64,65,66,67,
acetogens,defaunationoftherumen,bacteriophagesandprobiotics; 68,69,70,71
improvedfertility.
Manuremanagement CH4:Manipulatebeddingandstorageconditions,anaerobicdigesters; 56,58,72,73
biofilters,dietaryadditives.
N2O:ManipulatelivestockdietstoreduceNexcreta,soilappliedand 56,58,72,74,
animalfednitrificationinhibitors,ureaseinhibitors,fertilizertype,rate 75,76,77,78
andtiming,manipulatemanureapplicationpractices,grazing
management.
Integratedsystems
Agroforestry(including C:Mixedproductionsystemscanincreaselandproductivityand 79,80,81,82,
agropastoraland efficiencyintheuseofwaterandotherresourcesandprotectagainst 83,84,85,86,
agrosilvopastoralsystems) soilerosionaswellasservecarbonsequestrationobjectives. 87,88
Othermixedbiomass C:Mixedproductionsystemssuchasdoublecroppingsystemsand 82,89,90
productionsystems mixedcroplivestocksystemscanincreaselandproductivityand
efficiencyintheuseofwaterandotherresourcesaswellasserve
carbonsequestrationobjectives.Perennialgrasses(e.g.,bamboo)can
inthesamewayaswoodyplantsbecultivatedinshelterbeltsand
riparianzones/bufferstripsprovideenvironmentalservicesand
supportsCsequestrationandbiomassproduction.
Integrationofbiomass C:Integratingfeedstockproductionwithconversion,typically 91,92,93,94,
productionwith producinganimalfeedthatcanreducedemandforcultivatedfeed 95
subsequentprocessingin suchassoyandcornandcanalsoreducegrazingrequirements.Using
foodandbioenergy agriculturalandforestryresiduesforenergyproduction.
sectors
Bioenergy(seeBox11.5
andSection11.13)
1
(Van Bodegom et al., 2009); 2(Malmsheimer et al., 2008); 3(Reyer et al., 2009); 4(Sochacki et al., 2012); 5(IPCC,
6 7 8 9
2000); (DeFries and Rosenzweig, 2010); (Takimoto et al., 2008); (Masera et al., 2003); (Silver et al., 2000);
10
(Dezzeo et al., 2005); 11(Ito, 2005); 12(Sow et al., 2013); 13(Reyer et al., 2009); 14(Palm et al., 2004); 15(Godfray
16 17 18 19
et al., 2010); (Burney et al., 2010); (Conant et al., 2007); (Huang and Tang, 2010); (Lemke et al., 2010);
20
(Eagle and Olander, 2012); (Snyder et al., 2007); (Akiyama et al., 2010); (Barton et al., 2011); 24(Powlson
21 22 23
25 26 27 28
et al., 2011); (van Kessel et al., 2013); (Farage et al., 2007); (Smith, 2012); (Abdalla et al., 2013);
29
(Bayala et al., 2008); (Yagi et al., 1997); (Tyagi et al., 2010); (Feng et al., 2013); 33(Lohila et al., 2004);
30 31 32
34
(Seaquist et al., 2008); 35(Mbow, 2010); 36(Assogbadjo et al., 2012); 37(Laganiere et al., 2010); 38(Bayala et al.,
2011); 39(Singh et al., 2010); 40(Woolf et al., 2010); 41(Lehmann et al., 2003); 42(Taghizadeh-Toosi et al., 2011);
43
(Franzluebbers and Stuedemann, 2009); 44(Follett and Reed, 2010); 45(McSherry and Ritchie, 2013); 46(Saggar
et al., 2004); 47(Thornton and Herrero, 2010); 48(Harper et al., 2007); 49(Smith and Wollenberg, 2012);
50
(Beauchemin et al., 2008); 51(Beauchemin et al., 2009); 52(Martin et al., 2010); 53(Grainger and Beauchemin,
2011); 54(Clark, 2013); 55(Cottle et al., 2011); 56(Eckard et al., 2010); 57(Sauvant and Giger-Reverdin, 2007);
58
(Hristov et al., 2013); 59(Bryan et al., 2013); 60(Attwood and McSweeney, 2008); 61(Attwood et al., 2011);
62
(Hegarty et al., 2007); 63(Hook et al., 2010); 64(Janssen and Kirs, 2008); 65(Martin et al., 2010); 66(Morgavi et al.,
67 68 69 70
2008); (Morgavi et al., 2010); (Place and Mitloehner, 2010); (Waghorn and Hegarty, 2011); (Wright and
71 72 73 74
Klieve, 2011); (Yan et al., 2010) (Chadwick et al., 2011); (Petersen and Sommer, 2011); (de Klein et al.,
75 76 77 78
2010); (de Klein and Eckard, 2008); (Dijkstra et al., 2011) (Schils et al., 2013); (VanderZaag et al., 2011);
79
(Oke and Odebiyi, 2007); (Rice, 2008); (Takimoto et al., 2008); (Lott et al., 2009); 83(Sood and Mitchell,
80 81 82
2011); 84(Assogbadjo et al., 2012); 85(Wollenberg et al., 2012); 86(Semroc et al., 2012); 87Souza et al. (2012);
88
(Luedeling and Neufeldt, 2012); 89(Heggenstaller et al., 2008); 90(Herrero et al., 2010); 91(Dale et al., 2009);
92
(Dale et al., 2010); 93Sparovek et al. (2007); 94(Sood and Mitchell, 2011); 95(Vermeulen et al., 2012); 96(Metay et
97 98 99 100 101
al., 2007) ; (Rochette, 2008); (Ma et al., 2009); (Yao et al., 2010); (Arnalds, 2004); (Batjes, 2004);
102
(Hardner et al., 2000); (May et al., 2004); (Zhao et al., 2005); (Huang and Tang, 2010); 106(Kim et al.,
103 104 105
2013).
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Box 11.3 Biochar

Thisboxsummarizesthemitigationpotentialforbiochartechnologies,whichwerenotconsideredin
AR4.BiomassCstabilizationcouldbecombinedwith(orsubstitute)bioenergycaptureaspartofa
landbasedmitigationstrategy(Lehmann,2007).Heatingbiomasswithairexcluded(pyrolysis)
generatesenergycontainingvolatilesandgases.HydrogenandOarepreferentiallyeliminated,
creatingastable(biologicallyrecalcitrant)Crichcoproduct(char).Byaddingchartosoilasbiochar
asystemcanbeestablishedthatmayhaveahighercarbonabatementthantypicalbioenergy
alternatives(Woolfetal.,2010).Thegainisprobablyhighestwhereefficientbioenergyis
constrainedbyaremote,seasonal,ordiffusebiomassresource(Shackleyetal.,2012).Thebenefitof
pyrolysisbiocharsystems(PBS)isincreasedconsiderablyifallowanceismadefortheindirecteffects
ofusingbiocharviathesoil.Theseeffectsincludeincreasedcropandbiomassproductionand
decreasedN2OandCH4emissions.Realizingthemitigationpotentialforbiochartechnologieswillbe
constrainedbytheneedforsustainablefeedstockacquisition,competingbiomassuseoptionsarean
importantinfluenceoftheproductionprocessonbiocharproperties.Consideringsustainable
feedstockproductionandtargetingbiochardeploymentonlessfertileland,Woolfetal.(2010)
calculatedmaximumglobalabatementof6.6GtCO2eq/yrfrom2.27GtbiomassC.Allowingfor
competitionforvirginnonwastebiomassthevaluewaslower(3.67GtCO2eq/yrfrom1.01Gt
biomassC),accruing240480GtCO2eqabatementwithin100years.
Metaanalysisshowsthatinexperimentalsituationscropproductivityhas,onaverage,been
enhancedbycirca15%nearterm,butwithawiderangeofeffects(Jefferyetal.,2011;Biederman
andHarpole,2013).Thisrangeisprobablyexplainedbythenatureandextentofpreexistingsoil
constraints.TheWoolfetal.(2010)analysisaccordinglyassumedcropyieldincreasesof090%
(relative).Relaxingthisassumptionbyonehalfdecreasedprojectedabatementby10%.Decreasing
anassumed25%suppressiononsoilN2Ofluxbythesameproportionhadasmallerimpact.
BeneficialinteractionsofbiocharandthesoilNcyclearebeginningtobeunderstoodwitheffectson
mineralization,nitrification,denitrification,immobilizationandadsorptionpersistingatleastfordays
andmonthsafterbiocharaddition(Nelissenetal.,2012;Cloughetal.,2013).Althoughtheoften
largesuppressionofsoilN2Ofluxobservedunderlaboratoryconditionscanbeincreasingly
explained(Cayuelaetal.,2013),thiseffectisnotyetpredictableandtherehasbeenonlylimited
validationofN2Osuppressionbybiocharinplantedfieldsoils(Liuetal.,2012;VanZwietenetal.,
2013)oroverlongertimeframes(Spokas,2013).Thepotentialtogainenhancedmitigationusing
biocharbytacklinggaseousemissionsfrommanuresandfertilizersbeforeandafterapplicationto
soilarelesswellexplored(Steineretal.,2010;Angstetal.,2013).TheabatementpotentialforPBS
remainsmostsensitivetotheabsolutestabilityoftheCstoredinbiochar.Estimatesofhalflife
havebeeninferredfromwildfirecharcoal(Lehmann,2007)orextrapolatedfromdirectshortterm
observation.Thesegivevaluesthatrangefrom<50to>10,000years,butpredominantlybetween
1001000years(Singhetal.,2012;Spokas,2013).Nonetheless,theassumptionmadebyWoolfet
al.(2010)fortheproportionofbiocharCthatisstablelongterm(85%)issubjecttorefinementand
fieldvalidation.
Demonstrationoftheequipmentandinfrastructurerequiredforeffectiveuseofenergyproducts
frombiomasspyrolysisisstilllimited,especiallyacrosslargeandsmallunitscales.Preliminary
analysesshows,however,thatthebreakevencostofbiocharproductionislikelytobelocationand
feedstockspecific(Shackleyetal.,2012;Fieldetal.,2013).Untileconomicincentivesareestablished
forthestabilizationofC,biocharadoptionwilldependonpredictable,positiveeffectsoncrop
production.Thisrequiresmoreresearchontheuseofbiocharasaregularlowdosesoilinput,rather
thansingleapplicationsatrates>10t/ha,whichhavesofarbeenthenorm(Sohi,2012).Product
standardsarealsorequired,toensurethatbiocharisproducedinawaythatdoesnotcreateor
conserveproblematicconcentrationsoftoxiccontaminants,andtosupportregulateddeployment
strategies(IBIBiochar,2012;Downieetal.,2012).
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Box 11.4 Aquaculture

Aquacultureisdefinedasthefarmingoffish,shellfish,andaquaticplants(Huetal.,2013).Although
itisanancientpracticeinsomepartsofworld,thissectorofthefoodsystemisgrowingrapidly.
Sincethemid1970s,totalaquacultureproductionhasgrownatanaveragerateof8.3%peryear
(19702008;(Huetal.,2013).Theestimatedaquacultureproductionin2009was55.10Mt,which
accountsforapproximately47%ofallthefishconsumedbyhumans(Huetal.,2013).Thesectoris
diverse,beingdominatedbyshellfishandherbivorousandomnivorouspondfish,eitherentirelyor
partlyutilizingnaturalproductivity,butglobalizingtradeandfavourableeconomicconditionsare
drivingintensivefarmingatlargerscales(Bostocketal.,2010).Potentialimpactsofaquaculture,in
termsemissionsofN2O,haverecentlybeenconsidered(WilliamsandCrutzen,2010;Huetal.,
2012).GlobalN2Oemissionsfromaquaculturein2009wereestimatedtobe93ktN2ON(~43
MtCO2eq),andwillincreaseto383ktN2ON(~178MtCO2eq)by2030,whichcouldaccountfor5.7%
ofanthropogenicN2ONemissionsifaquaculturecontinuestogrowatthepresentgrowthrate
(~7.1%/yr;(Huetal.,2012)).
Somestudieshavefocusedonricefishfarming,whichisapracticeassociatedwithwetrice
cultivationinSoutheastAsia,providingprotein,especiallyforsubsistenceorientedfarmers
(Bhattacharyyaetal.,2013).CultivationoffishalongwithriceincreasesemissionsofCH4(Freietal.,
2007;Bhattacharyyaetal.,2013),butdecreasesN2Oemissions,irrespectiveofthefishspeciesused
(Dattaetal.,2009;Bhattacharyyaetal.,2013).Althoughricefishfarmingsystemsmightbeglobally
importantintermsofclimatechange,theyarealsorelevantforlocaleconomy,foodsecurity,and
efficientwateruse(sharedwater),whichmakesitdifficulttodesignappropriatemitigation
measures,becauseofthetradeoffsbetweenmitigationmeasuresandriceandfishproduction
(Dattaetal.,2009;Bhattacharyyaetal.,2013).Feedingrateanddissolvedoxygen(DO)
concentrationcouldaffectN2Oemissionsfromaquaculturesystemssignificantly,andnitrification
anddenitrificationprocesseswereequallyresponsiblefortheemissionsofN2Ointhesesystems.
MeasurestocontrolN2OfromaquaculturearedescribedbyHuetal.(2012),andincludethe
maintenanceofoptimaloperatingconditionsofthesystem,suchasappropriatepHand
temperature,sufficientDOandgoodqualityfeed.Additionally,twopotentialwaystominimizeN2O
emissionsfromaquaculturesystemsincludeAquaponicAquaculture(polycultureconsistingoffish
tanks(aquaculture)andplantsthatarecultivatedinthesamewatercycle(hydroponic)),and
BioflocsTechnology(BFT)Aquaculture(whichinvolvesthedevelopmentandcontrolof
heterotrophicbacteriainflocswithinthefishculturecomponent),wherethegrowthof
heterotrophicbacteriaisstimulated,leadingtonitrogenuptake(Huetal.,2012).
Box 11.5 Bioenergy

Bioenergydeploymentofferssignificantpotentialforclimatechangemitigation,butalsocarries
considerablerisks.TheSRREN(IPCC,2011)suggestedpotentialbioenergydeploymentlevelstobe
between100300EJ.Thisassessmentagreesonatechnicalbioenergypotentialofaround100EJ,
andpossibly300EJandhigher.Integratedmodelsprojectbetween15245EJ/yrdeploymentin
2050,excludingtraditionalbioenergy.Achievinghighdeploymentlevelswouldrequire,amongst
others,extensiveuseofagriculturalresiduesandsecondgenerationbiofuelstomitigateadverse
impactsonlanduseandfoodproduction,andthecoprocessingofbiomasswithcoalornaturalgas
withcarbondioxidecaptureandstorage(CCS)toproducelownetGHGemittingtransportationfuels
and/orelectricity.Integrationofcrucialsectoralresearch(albedoeffects,evaporation,
counterfactuallandcarbonsinkassumptions)intotransformationpathwaysresearch,and
explorationofrisksofimperfectpolicysettings(forexample,inabsenceofaglobalCO2priceonland
carbon)issubjectoffurtherresearch(Sections11.9,11.13.2,11.13.4).Smallscalebioenergy
systemsaimedatmeetingruralenergyneedssynergisticallyprovidemitigationandenergyaccess
benefits.Decentralizeddeploymentofbiomassforenergy,incombinationwithimproved
cookstoves,biogas,andsmallscalebiopower,couldimprovelivelihoodsandhealthofaround2.6
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billionpeople.Bothmitigationpotentialandsustainabilityhingescruciallyontheprotectionofland
carbon(highdensitycarbonecosystems),carefulfertilizerapplication,interactionwithfood
markets,andgoodlandandwatermanagement.Sustainabilityandlivelihoodconcernsmight
constrainbeneficialdeploymentofdedicatedbiomassplantationstolowervalues(Sections11.13.3,
11.13.5,11.13.7).
Lifecycleassessmentsforbioenergyoptionsdemonstrateaplethoraofpathways,sitespecific
conditionsandtechnologiesproduceawiderangeofclimaterelevanteffects.Specifically,LUC
emissions,N2Oemissionsfromsoilandfertilizers,coproducts,processdesignandprocessfueluse,
endusetechnology,andreferencesystemcanallinfluencethetotalattributionallifecycleemissions
ofbioenergyuse.Thelargevarianceforspecificpathwayspointstotheimportanceofmanagement
decisionsinreducingthelifecycleemissionsofbioenergyuse.Thetotalmarginalglobalwarming
impactofbioenergycanonlybeevaluatedinacomprehensivesettingthatalsoaddresses
equilibriumeffects,e.g.,indirectlandusechange(iLUC)emissions,actualfossilfuelsubstitution,
andothereffects.Structuraluncertaintyinmodellingdecisionsrenderssuchevaluationexercises
uncertain.Availabledatasuggestadifferentiationbetweenoptionsthatofferlowlifecycleemissions
undergoodlandusemanagement(e.g.,sugarcane,Miscanthus,andfastgrowingtreespecies)and
thosethatareunlikelytocontributetoclimatechangemitigation(e.g.,cornandsoybean),pending
newinsightsfrommorecomprehensiveconsequentialanalyses(Sections8.7,11.13.4).
CouplingbioenergyandCCS(BECCS)hasattractedparticularattentionsinceAR4becauseitoffers
theprospectofnegativeemissions.Until2050,theeconomicpotentialisestimatedtobebetween
210GtCO2peryear.Someclimatestabilizationscenariosseeconsiderablehigherdeployment
towardstheendofthecentury,eveninsome580650ppmscenarios,operatingunderdifferent
timescales,socioeconomicassumptions,technologyportfolios,CO2prices,andinterpretingBECCS
aspartofanoverallmitigationframework.TechnologicalchallengesandpotentialrisksofBECCS
includethoseassociatedwiththeprovisionofthebiomassfeedstockaswellaswiththecapture,
transportandlongtermundergroundstorageofCO2.BECCSfaceslargechallengesinfinancingand
currentlynosuchplantshavebeenbuiltandtestedatscale(Sections7.5.5,7.9,11.13.3).
Landdemandandlivelihoodsareoftenaffectedbybioenergydeployment.Landdemandfor
bioenergydependson(1)theshareofbioenergyderivedfromwastesandresidues;(2)theextentto
whichbioenergyproductioncanbeintegratedwithfoodandfibreproduction,andconservationto
minimizelandusecompetition;(3)theextenttowhichbioenergycanbegrownonareaswithlittle
currentproduction;and(4)thequantityofdedicatedenergycropsandtheiryields.Considerations
oftradeoffswithwater,land,andbiodiversityarecrucialtoavoidadverseeffects.Thetotalimpact
onlivelihoodanddistributionalconsequencesdependsonglobalmarketfactors,impactingincome
andincomerelatedfoodsecurity,andsitespecificfactorssuchaslandtenureandsocial
dimensions.Theoftensitespecificeffectsofbioenergydeploymentonlivelihoodshavenotyetbeen
comprehensivelyevaluated(Section11.13.7).
11.3.2 Mitigationeffectiveness(nonpermanence:saturation,humanandnatural
impacts,displacement)
Sincecarbonsequestrationinsoilandvegetationandtheretentionofexistingcarbonstocksformsa
significantcomponentofthemitigationpotentialintheAFOLUsector,thissectionconsidersthe
factorsaffectingthisstrategycomparedtoavoidedGHGemissions.
Nonpermanence/reversibility.Reversalsarethereleaseofpreviouslysequesteredcarbon,which
negatessomeorallofthebenefitsfromsequestrationthathasoccurredinpreviousyears.Thisissue
issometimesreferredtoasnonpermanence(Smith,2005).Varioustypesofcarbonsinks(e.g.,
afforestation/reforestation,agriculturalsoilC)haveaninherentriskoffuturereversals.
Certaintypesofmitigationactivities(e.g.,avoidedN2Ofromfertilizer,emissionreductionsfrom
changeddietpatternsorreducedfoodchainlosses)areeffectivelypermanentsincetheemissions,
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onceavoided,cannotbereemitted.Thesameappliestotheuseofbioenergytodisplacefossilfuel
emissions(Section11.13)ortheuseofbiomassbasedproductstodisplacemoreemissionsintensive
products(e.g.,woodinplaceofconcreteorsteel)inconstruction.
Reversalsmaybecausedbynaturaleventsthataffectyields/growth.Insomecases(e.g.,frost
damage,pestinfestation,orfire;(Reichsteinetal.,2013),theseeffectsmaybetemporaryorshort
term.AlthoughtheseeventswillaffecttheannualincrementofCsequestration,theymaynotresult
inapermanentdeclineincarbonstocks.Inothercases,suchasstandreplacingforestfires,insector
diseaseoutbreaks,ordrought,thedeclinesmaybemoreprofound.Althoughasubstantiallossof
abovegroundstoredcarboncouldoccurfollowingawildfire,whetherthisrepresentsalossdepends
onwhathappensfollowingthefireandwhethertheforestrecovers,orchangestoalowercarbon
storagestate(seeBox11.2).Similarly,somesystemsarenaturallyadaptedtofireandcarbonstocks
willrecoverfollowingfire,whereasinothercasesthefireresultsinachangetoasystemwitha
lowercarbonstock(e.g.,(BrownandJohnstone,2011).Foraperiodoftimefollowingfire(orother
disruptiveevent),thestockofcarbonwillbelessthanthatbeforethefire.Similarly,emissionsof
nonCO2gasesalsoneedtobeconsidered.
ThepermanenceoftheAFOLUcarbonstockrelatestothelongevityofthestock,i.e.,howlongthe
increasedcarbonstockremainsinthesoilorvegetation.Thisislinkedtoconsiderationofthe
reversibilityoftheincreasedcarbonstock(Smith,2005),asdiscussedinSection11.5.2.
Saturation.Substitutionoffossilfuelandmaterialwithbiomass,andenergyintensivebuilding
materialswithwoodcancontinueinperpetuity.Incontrast,itisoftenconsideredthatcarbon
sequestrationinsoils(Guldeaetal.,2008)orvegetationcannotcontinueindefinitely.Thecarbon
storedinsoilsandvegetationreachesanewequilibrium(asthetreesmatureorasthesoilcarbon
stocksaturates).Asthesoils/vegetationapproachthenewequilibrium,theannualremoval
(sometimesreferredtoasthesinkstrength)decreasesuntilitbecomeszeroatequilibrium.This
processiscalledsaturation(Smith,2005;Krner,2006,2009;Johnstonetal.,2009b),andthe
uncertaintyassociatedwithsaturationhasbeenestimated(KimandMcCarl,2009).Analternative
viewisthatsaturationdoesnotoccur,withstudiesfromoldgrowthforests,forexample,showing
thattheycancontinuetosequesterCinsoilanddeadorganicmatterevenifnetlivingbiomass
incrementisnearzero(e.g.,(Luyssaertetal.,2008).Peatlandsareunlikelytosaturateincarbon
storage,buttherateofCuptakemaybeveryslow(seeBox11.1).
Humanandnaturalimpacts.Soilandvegetationcarbonsinkscanbeimpacteduponbydirect
humaninduced,indirecthumaninduced,andnaturalchanges(Smith,2005).Allofthemitigation
practicesdiscussedinSection11.3.1arisefromdirecthumaninducedimpacts(deliberate
management).Bothsinkprocessesandcarbonstockscanbeaffectedbynaturalfactorssuchassoil
andhydrologicalconditions.Indirecthumaninducedchangescanimpactcarbonsinksandare
influencedbyhumanactivity,butarenotdirectlyrelatedtothemanagementofthatpieceofland;
examplesincludeclimatechangeandatmosphericnitrogendeposition.Forsometreespecies,rising
concentrationsoftroposphericozonecausedbyhumanactivitiesmaycounteracttheeffectsof
increasedatmosphericCO2orNdepositionontreegrowth(Sitchetal.,2008;Matysseketal.,2010).
NaturalchangesthatthreatentoimpacttheefficacyofmitigationmeasuresarediscussedinSection
11.5.
Displacement/leakage.Displacement/leakagearisesfromachangeinlanduseorlandmanagement
thatcausesapositiveornegativechangeinemissionselsewhere.Thiscanoccurwithinoracross
nationalboundaries,andtheefficacyofmitigationpracticesmustconsidertheleakageimplications.
Forexample,ifreducingemissionsinoneplaceleadstoincreasedemissionselsewhere,nonet
reductionoccurs;theemissionsaresimplydisplaced(Powlsonetal.,2011;Kastneretal.,2011b;a),
however,thisassumesaonetoonecorrespondence.Murrayetal.(2004)estimatedtheleakage
fromdifferentforestcarbonprogrammesandthisvariedfrom<10%to>90%dependingonthe
natureoftheactivity.Westetal.(2010)examinedtheimpactofdisplacedactivitiesindifferent
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geographiccontexts;forexample,landclearinginthetropicswillreleasetwicethecarbon,butonly
producehalfthecropyieldoftemperateareas.Indirectlandusechangeisanimportantcomponent
toconsiderfordisplacedemissionsandassessmentsofthisareanemergingarea.Indirectlanduse
changeisdiscussedfurtherinSection11.4andinrelationtobioenergyinSection11.13.
Thetimingofmitigationbenefitsfromactions(e.g.,bioenergy,forestmanagement,forestproducts
use/storage)canvaryasaresultbothofthenatureoftheactivityitself(e.g.,fromthetemporal
patternofsoilorforestsequestrationcomparedtobiomasssubstitution),andratesofadoption.
Timingthusneedstobeconsideredwhenjudgingtheeffectivenessofamitigationaction.Cherubini
etal.(2012)modelledtheimpactoftimingofbenefitsforthreedifferentwoodapplications(fuel,
nonstructuralpanels,andhousingconstructionmaterials)andshowedthattheoptionsprovide
mitigationoverdifferenttimeframes,andthushavedifferentimpactsonCO2concentrationsand
radiativeforcing.Thetemporalpatternofemissionsandremovalsisespeciallyimportantin
mitigatingemissionsofshortlivedgasesthroughcarbonsequestration(Lauderetal.,2013).
Additionality:Anotherconsiderationforgaugingtheeffectivenessofmitigationisdetermining
whethertheactivitywouldhaveoccurredanyway,withthisencompassedintheconceptof
additionality(seeGlossary).
Impactsofclimatechange:Anareaofemergingactivityispredictingthelikelyimpactsofclimate
changeonmitigationpotential,bothintermsofimpactsonexistingcarbonstocks,butalsoonthe
ratesofcarbonsequestration.ThisisdiscussedfurtherinSection11.5.
11.4 Infrastructureandsystemicperspectives
OnlysupplysidemitigationoptionsareconsideredinSection11.3.Inthissection,weconsider
infrastructureandsystemicperspectives,whichincludepotentialdemandsidemitigationoptionsin
theAFOLUsector.SinceinfrastructureisaminorissueinAFOLUcomparedtoenergyenduse
sectors,thissectionfocussesonsystemicperspectives.
11.4.1 Land:acomplex,integratedsystem
MitigationintheAFOLUsectorisembeddedinthecomplexinteractionsbetweensocioeconomic
andnaturalfactorssimultaneouslyaffectinglandsystems(Turneretal.,2007).Landisusedfora
varietyofpurposes,includinghousingandinfrastructure(Chapter12),productionofgoodsand
servicesthroughagriculture,aquacultureandforestry,andabsorptionordepositionofwastesand
emissions(DunlapandCatton,Jr.,2002).Agricultureandforestryareimportantforrurallivelihoods
andemployment(Coelhoetal.,2012),whileaquacultureandfisheriescanberegionallyimportant
(FAO,2012).Morethanhalfoftheplanetstotallandarea(134Mkm2)isusedforurbanand
infrastructureland,agriculture,andforestry.Lessthanonequartershowsrelativelyminorsignsof
directhumanuse(Erbetal.,2007;Ellisetal.,2010);Figure11.9).Someofthelatterareasare
inhabitedbyindigenouspopulations,whichdependonthelandforthesupplyofvitallyimportant
resources(Readetal.,2010).
Landusechangeisapervasivedriverofglobalenvironmentalchange(Foleyetal.,2005,2011).
From1950to2005,farmland(croplandpluspasture)increasedfrom28to38%ofthegloballand
areaexcludingicesheetsandinlandwaters(Hurttetal.,2011).Thegrowthoffarmlandarea(+33%)
waslowerthanthatofpopulation,foodproduction,andgrossdomesticproduct(GDP)dueto
increasesinyieldsandbiomassconversionefficiency(Krausmannetal.,2012).Intheyear2000,
almostonequarteroftheglobalterrestrialnetprimaryproduction(onethirdoftheaboveground
part)wasappropriatedbyhumans.Thismeansthatitwaseitherlostbecausethenetprimary
productivity(thebiomassproductionofgreenplants,netprimaryproduction,NPP)ofagro
ecosystemsorurbanareaswaslowerthanthatofthevegetationtheyreplacedoritwasharvested
forhumanpurposes,destroyedduringharvestorburnedinhumaninducedfires(Imhoffetal.,
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2004;Haberletal.,2007).ThefractionofterrestrialNPPappropriatedbyhumansdoubledinthelast
century(Krausmannetal.,2013),exemplifyingtheincreasinghumandominationofterrestrial
ecosystems(Ellisetal.,2010).Growthtrajectoriesoftheuseoffood,energy,andotherlandbased
resources,aswellaspatternsofurbanizationandinfrastructuredevelopmentareinfluencedby
increasingpopulationandGDP,aswellastheongoingagrarianindustrialtransition(Haberletal.,
2011b;Kastneretal.,2012).
Growingresourceuseandlanddemandforbiodiversityconservationandcarbonsequestration
(SoaresFilhoetal.,2010),resultinincreasingcompetitionforland(HarveyandPilgrim,2011);
Section11.4.2).Influencingongoingtransitionsinresourceuseisamajorchallenge(WBGU,2011;
FischerKowalski,2011).Changesincities,e.g.,intermsofinfrastructure,governance,anddemand,
canplayamajorroleinthisrespect(Setoetal.,2012;Seitzingeretal.,2012;Chapter12).
ManymitigationactivitiesintheAFOLUsectoraffectlanduseorlandcoverand,therefore,have
socioeconomicaswellasecologicalconsequences,e.g.,onfoodsecurity,livelihoods,ecosystem
servicesoremissions(Sections11.1;11.4.5;11.7).Feedbacksinvolvedinimplementingmitigationin
AFOLUmayinfluencedifferent,sometimesconflicting,social,institutional,economic,and
environmentalgoals(Madleneretal.,2006).ClimatechangemitigationintheAFOLUsectorfacesa
complexsetofinterrelatedchallenges(Sections11.4.5;11.7):
FullGHGimpacts,includingthosefromfeedbacks(e.g.,iLUC)orleakage,areoftendifficultto
determine(Searchingeretal.,2008).
FeedbacksbetweenGHGreductionandotherimportantobjectivessuchasprovisionof
livelihoodsandsufficientfoodorthemaintenanceofecosystemservicesandbiodiversityare
notcompletelyunderstood.
Maximizingsynergiesandminimizingnegativeeffectsinvolvesmultidimensionaloptimization
problemsinvolvingvarioussocial,economic,andecologicalcriteriaorconflictsofinterest
betweendifferentsocialgroups(MartinezAlier,2002).
Changesinlanduseandecosystemsarescaledependentandmayproceedatdifferentspeeds,
orperhapsevenmoveindifferentdirections,atdifferentscales.
11.4.2 MitigationinAFOLUfeedbackswithlandusecompetition
Drivenbyeconomicandpopulationgrowth,increaseddemandforfoodandbioenergyaswellas
landdemandforconservationandurbanization(e.g.,abovegroundbiomasscarbonlosses
associatedwithlandclearingfromnewurbanareasinthepantropicsareestimatedtobe5%ofthe
tropicaldeforestationandlandusechangeemissions,(Setoetal.,2012a);Section12.2),competition
forlandisexpectedtointensify(Smithetal.,2010;Woodsetal.,2010).Maximizationofoneoutput
orservice(e.g.,crops)oftenexcludes,oratleastnegativelyaffects,others(e.g.,conservation;
(Phalanetal.,2011).MitigationintheAFOLUsectormayaffectlandusecompetition.Reduced
demandforAFOLUproductsgenerallydecreasesinputs(fertilizer,energy,machinery)andland
demand.Theecologicalfeedbacksofdemandsideoptionsaremostlybeneficialsincetheyreduce
competitionforlandandwater(Smithetal.,2013b).
Somesupplysideoptions,thoughnotall,mayintensifycompetitionforlandandotherresources.
BasedonFigure11.9onemaydistinguishthreecases:
Optimizationofbiomassflowcascades;thatis,increaseduseofresiduesandbyproducts,
recyclingofbiogenicmaterialsandenergeticuseofwastes(WBGU,2009).Suchoptions
increaseresourceuseefficiencyandmayreducecompetition,buttheremayalsobetradeoffs.
Forexample,usingcropresiduesforbioenergyorroughagesupplymayleavelessCand
nutrientsoncropland,reducesoilqualityandCstorageinsoils,andincreasetheriskoflossesof
carbonthroughsoilerosion.Residuesarealsooftenusedasforage,particularlyinthetropics.
Forestresiduesarecurrentlyalsousedforotherpurposes,e.g.,chipboardmanufacture,pulp
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andpaperproduction(GonzlezEstradaetal.,2008;BlancoCanquiandLal,2009;Muller,2009;
Ceschiaetal.,2010).
Increasesinyieldsofcropland(Burneyetal.,2010;Foleyetal.,2011;Tilmanetal.,2011;
Muelleretal.,2012;Lobelletal.,2013),grazinglandorforestryandimprovedlivestockfeeding
efficiency(Steinfeldetal.,2010;ThorntonandHerrero,2010)canreducelandcompetitionif
yieldincreasesrelativetoanyadditionalinputsandtheemissionintensity(i.e.,GHGemissions
perunitofproduct)decreases.Thismayresultintradeoffswithotherecological,social,and
economiccosts(IAASTD,2009)althoughthesecantosomeextentbemitigatedifintensification
issustainable(Tilmanetal.,2011).Anothercaveatisthatincreasesinyieldsmayresultin
reboundeffectsthatincreaseconsumption(LambinandMeyfroidt,2011;Erb,2012)orprovide
incentivestofarmmoreland(MatsonandVitousek,2006),andhencemayfailtospareland
(Section11.10).
LanddemandingoptionsreduceGHGemissionsbyharnessingthepotentialofthelandfor
eitherCsequestrationorgrowingenergycrops(includingfoodcropsusedasfeedstocksfor
bioenergyproduction).Theseoptionsresultincompetitionforland(andsometimesother
resourcessuchaswater)thatmayhavesubstantialsocial,economic,andecologicaleffects
(positiveornegative;(UNEP,2009,p.2009;WBGU,2009;Chumetal.,2011;Coelhoetal.,
2012).Suchoptionsmayincreasepressuresonecosystems(e.g.,forests)andGHGemissions
relatedtodirectandindirectLUC,contributetopriceincreasesofagriculturalproducts,or
negativelyaffectlivelihoodsofruralpopulations.Thesepossibleimpactsneedtobebalanced
againstpossiblepositiveeffectssuchasGHGreduction,improvedwaterquality(Townsendet
al.,2012),restorationofdegradedland(Harperetal.,2007),biodiversityprotection(Swingland
etal.,2002),andjobcreation(Chumetal.,2011;Coelhoetal.,2012).
Therefore,anintegratedenergy/agriculture/landuseapproachformitigationinAFOLUcanhelpto
optimizesynergiesandmitigatenegativeeffects((Poppetal.,2011;Smith,2012;Creutzigetal.,
2012;Smithetal.,2013b).
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Figure 11.9. Global land use and biomass flows arising from human economic activity in 2000 from
the cradle to the grave. Values in Gt dry matter biomass/yr. Figure source: (Smith et al., 2013b). If a
source reported biomass flows in energy units, the numbers were converted to dry matter assuming a
gross energy value of 18.5 MJ/kg. The difference between inputs and outputs in the consumption
compartment is assumed to be released to the atmosphere (respiration, combustion); small
differences may result from rounding. Note that data sources a) area: (Erb et al., 2007; Schneider et
al., 2009; FAO, 2010) ; b) biomass flows: (Wirsenius, 2003; Sims et al., 2006; Krausmann et al., 2008;
FAOSTAT, 2012; Kummu et al., 2012) are incomplete; more research is needed to close data gaps
between different statistical sources such as agricultural, forestry, and energy statistics (Section
11.11). Unused forests are pristine forests not harvested or otherwise used.
11.4.3 DemandsideoptionsforreducingGHGemissionsfromAFOLU
SomechangesindemandforfoodandfibrecanreduceGHGemissionsintheproductionchain
(Table11.3)through(i)aswitchtotheconsumptionofproductswithhigherGHGemissionsinthe
processchaintoproductswithlowerGHGemissionsand(ii)bymakinglandavailableforotherGHG
reductionactivitiese.g.,afforestationorbioenergy(Section11.4.4).Fooddemandchangeisa
sensitiveissueduetotheprevalenceofhunger,malnutrition,andthelackoffoodsecurityinmany
regions(Godfrayetal.,2010).Sufficientproductionof,andequitableaccessto,foodarebothcritical
forfoodsecurity(Misselhornetal.,2012).GHGemissionsmaybereducedthroughchangesinfood
demandwithoutjeopardizinghealthandwellbeingby(1)reducinglossesandwastesoffoodinthe
supplychainaswellasduringfinalconsumption;(2)changingdietstowardslessGHGintensivefood,
e.g.,substitutionofanimalproductswithplantbasedfood,whilequantitativelyandqualitatively
maintainingadequateproteincontent,inregionswithhighanimalproductconsumption;and(3)
reductionofoverconsumptioninregionswherethisisprevalent.Substitutingplantbaseddietsfor
animalbaseddietsiscomplexsince,inmanycircumstances,livestockcanbefedonplantsnot
suitableforhumanconsumptionorgrowingonlandwithhighsoilcarbonstocksnotsuitablefor
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cropping;hence,foodproductionbygrazinganimalscontributestofoodsecurityinmanyregionsof
theworld(Wirsenius,2003;Gilletal.,2010).
Table 11.3 Overview of demand-side mitigation options in the AFOLU sector
Measure Description References

Reducedlosses Reducedlossesinthefoodsupplychainandinfinalconsumption (Godfrayetal.,2010;
inthefood reducesenergyuseandGHGemissionsfromagriculture, Gustavssonetal.,
supplychain transport,storageanddistribution,andreducelanddemand. 2011),seetext.
Changesin Whereappropriate,reducedconsumptionoffooditemswithhigh (Stehfestetal.,2009;
humandiets GHGemissionsperunitofproduct,tothosewithlowGHG FAO,2011),seetext
towardsless productscanreduceGHGemissions.Suchdemandchangescan
emission reduceenergyinputsinthesupplychainandreducesland
intensive demand.
products
Demandside WoodharvestinforestsreleasesGHGandatleasttemporarily (Gustavssonetal.,
optionsrelated reducesforestCstocks.Conservationofwood(products)through 2006;Werneretal.,
towoodand moreefficientuseorreplacementwithrecycledmaterialsand 2010;Ingerson,2011),
forestry replacingwoodfromillegalloggingordestructiveharvestwith seetext.
woodfromcertifiedsustainableforestry(Section11.10)cansave

GHGemissions.Substitutionofwoodfornonrenewableresources
canreduceGHGemissions,e.g.,whenwoodissubstitutedfor
emissionintensivematerialssuchasaluminium,steel,orconcrete
inbuildings.IntegratedoptimizationofCstocksinforestsandin
longlivedproducts,aswellastheuseofbyproductsandwastes
forenergy,candeliverthehighestGHGbenefits.
ReductionsoflossesinthefoodsupplychainGlobally,roughestimatessuggestthat~3040%ofall
foodproducedislostinthesupplychainfromharvesttoconsumption(Godfrayetal.,2010).Energy
embodiedinwastedfoodisestimatedat~36EJ/yr(FAO,2011).Indevelopingcountries,upto40%is
lostonfarmorduringdistributionduetopoorstorage,distribution,andconservationtechnologies
andprocedures.Indevelopedcountries,lossesonfarmorduringdistributionaresmaller,butthe
sameamountislostorwastedinservicesectorsandattheconsumerlevel(Foleyetal.,2005;Parfitt
etal.,2010;Godfrayetal.,2010;Gustavssonetal.,2011;Hodgesetal.,2011).However,
uncertaintiesrelatedtolossesinthefoodsupplychainarelargeandmoreresearchisneeded.
Notalllossesare(potentially)avoidablebecauselossesinhouseholdsalsoincludepartsofproducts
normallynotdeemededible(e.g.,peelsofsomefruitsandvegetables).AccordingtoParfittetal.
(2010),intheUK,18%ofthefoodwasteisunavoidable,18%ispotentiallyavoidable,and64%is
avoidable.DataforAustria,Netherlands,Turkey,theUnitedKingdom,andtheUnitedStates,
derivedwithavarietyofmethods,showthatfoodwastesatthehouseholdlevelinindustrialized
countriesare150300kgperhouseholdperyear(Parfittetal.,2010).Accordingtoatopdown
massflowmodellingstudybasedonFAOcommoditybalancescompletelycoveringthefoodsupply
chain,butexcludingnonediblefractions,foodlossvaluesrangefrom120170kg/cap/yrinSub
SaharanAfricato280300kg/cap/yrinEuropeandNorthAmerica.Lossesrangingfrom20%inSub
SaharanAfricatomorethan30%intheindustrializedcountrieswerecalculated(Gustavssonetal.,
2011).
Arangeofoptionsexisttoreducewastesandlossesinthesupplychain:investmentsinto
harvesting,processingandstoragetechnologiesinthedevelopingcountries,awarenessraising,
taxationandotherincentivestoreduceretailandconsumerrelatedlossesprimarilyinthe
developedcountries.Differentoptionscanhelptoreducelosses(i.e.,increaseefficiency)inthe
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supplychainandatthehouseholdlevel.SubstantialGHGsavingscouldberealizedbysavingone
quarterofthewastedfoodaccordingto(Gustavssonetal.,2011);seeTable11.4.
ChangesinhumandietsLanduseandGHGeffectsofchangingdietsrequirewidespread
behaviouralchangestobeeffective;i.e.,astrongdeviationfromcurrenttrajectories(increasing
demandforfood,inparticularforanimalproducts).Cultural,socioeconomicandbehavioural
aspectsofimplementationarediscussedinSections11.4.5and11.7.
StudiesbasedonLifecycleAssessment(LCA)methodsshowsubstantiallylowerGHGemissionsfor
mostplantbasedfoodthanforanimalproducts(CarlssonKanyamaandGonzlez,2009;Pathaket
al.,2010;Bellarbyetal.,2012;BernersLeeetal.,2012),althoughthereareexceptions,e.g.,
vegetablesgrowninheatedgreenhousesortransportedbyairfreight(CarlssonKanyamaand
Gonzlez,2009).AcomparisonofthreemealsservedinSwedenwithsimilarenergyandprotein
contentbasedon(1)soy,wheat,carrots,andapples,(2)pork,potatoes,greenbeans,andoranges,
and(3)beef,rice,cookedfrozenvegetables,andtropicalfruitsrevealedGHGemissionsof0.42
kgCO2eqforthefirstoption,1.3kgCO2eqforthesecond,and4.7kgCO2eqforthethird,i.e.,afactor
of>10difference(CarlssonKanyamaandGonzlez,2009).MostLCAstudiesquotedhereuse
attributionalLCA;differencestoresultsfromconsequentialLCA(seeAnnexII)aregenerallynotlarge
enoughtoreversethepicture(Thomassenetal.,2008).TheGHGbenefitsofplantbasedfoodover
animalproductsholdwhencomparedperunitofprotein(Gonzlezetal.,2011).Inadditiontoplant
basedfoodshavingloweremissionsthananimalbasedones,GHGemissionsoflivestockproducts
alsovaryconsiderably;emissionsperunitofproteinarehighestforbeefandlowerforpork,chicken
meat,eggsanddairyproducts(deVriesanddeBoer,2010)duetotheirfeedandlanduse
intensities.Figure11.10presentsacomparisonbetweenmilkandbeeffordifferentproduction
systemsandregionsoftheworld(Herreroetal.,2013).Beefproductioncanuseuptofivetimes
morebiomassforproducing1kgofanimalproteinthandairy.Emissionsintensitiesforthesame
livestockproductalsovarylargelybetweendifferentregionsoftheworldduetodifferencesinagro
ecology,dietquality,andintensityofproduction(Herreroetal.,2013).Inoverallterms,Europeand
NorthAmericahaveloweremissionsintensitiesperkgofproteinthanAfrica,Asia,andLatin
America.Thisshowsthatthehighestpotentialforimprovingemissionsintensitiesliesindeveloping
countries,ifintensificationstrategiescanbematchedtolocalresourcesandcontexts.
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Figure 11.10. Biomass use efficiencies for the production of edible protein from (top) beef and
(bottom) milk for different production systems and regions of the world (Herrero et al., 2013).
StudiesbasedonintegratedmodellingshowthatchangesindietsstronglyaffectfutureGHG
emissionsfromfoodproduction(Stehfestetal.,2009;Poppetal.,2010;Davidson,2012).Poppetal.
(2010)estimatedthatagriculturalnonCO2emissions(CH4andN2O)wouldtripleby2055to15.3
GtCO2eq/yrifcurrentdietarytrendsandpopulationgrowthweretocontinue.Technicalmitigation
optionsonthesupplyside,suchasimprovedcroplandorlivestockmanagement,alonecouldreduce
thatvalueto9.8GtCO2eq/yr,whereasemissionswerereducedto4.3GtCO2eq/yrinadecreased
livestockproductscenarioandto2.5GtCO2eq/yrifbothtechnicalmitigationanddietarychange
wereassumed.Hence,thepotentialtoreduceGHGemissionsthroughchangesinconsumptionwas
foundtobesubstantiallyhigherthanthatoftechnicalmitigationmeasures.Stehfestetal.,(2009)
evaluatedeffectsofdietarychangesonCO2(includingCsources/sinksofecosystems),CH4,andN2O
emissions.InabusinessasusualscenariolargelybasedonFAO(2006),totalGHGemissionswere
projectedtoreach11.9GtCO2eq/yrin2050.Thefollowingchangeswereevaluated:noruminant
meat,nomeat,andadietwithoutanyanimalproducts.ChangeddietsresultedinGHGemission
savingsof3464%comparedtothebusinessasusualscenario;aswitchtoahealthydiet
recommendedbytheHarvardMedicalSchoolwouldsave4.3GtCO2eq/yr(36%).Adoptionofthe
healthydiet(whichincludesameat,fishandeggconsumptionof90g/cap/day)wouldreduce
globalGHGabatementcoststoreacha450ppmCO2eqconcentrationtargetby~50%comparedto
thereferencecase(Stehfestetal.,2009).Theanalysisassumednutritionallysufficientdiets;reduced
supplyofanimalproteinwascompensatedbyplantproducts(soy,pulses,etc.).Considerable
culturalandsocialbarriersagainstawidespreadadoptionofdietarychangestolowGHGfoodmay
beexpected(Davidson,2012;Smithetal.,2013,11.4.5).
AlimitationoffoodrelatedLCAstudiesisthattheyhavesofarseldomconsideredtheemissions
resultingfromLUCinducedbychangingpatternsoffoodproduction(Bellarbyetal.,2012).Arecent
study(SchmidingerandStehfest,2012)foundthatcroplandandpasturesrequiredforthe
productionofbeef,lamb,calf,pork,chicken,andmilkcouldannuallysequesteranamountofcarbon
equivalentto30470%oftheGHGemissionsusuallyconsideredinLCAoffoodproductsiftheland
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weretobereforested.LandrelatedGHGcostsdiffergreatlybetweenproductsanddependonthe
timehorizon(30100yr)assumed(SchmidingerandStehfest,2012).Ifcattleproductioncontributes
totropicaldeforestation(Zaksetal.,2009;Bustamanteetal.,2012;Houghtonetal.,2012),landuse
relatedGHGemissionsareparticularlyhigh(Cederbergetal.,2011).Thesefindingsunderlinethe
importanceofdietsforGHGemissionsinthefoodsupplychain(Garnett,2011;Bellarbyetal.,2012).
Apotentialcobenefitisareductionindietrelatedhealthrisksinregionswhereoverconsumptionof
animalproductsisprevalent(McMichaeletal.,2007).
DemandsideoptionsrelatedtowoodandforestryAcomprehensiveglobal,longtermdataseton
carbonstocksinlonglivedwoodproductsinuse(excludinglandfills)showsanincreasefrom
approximately2.2GtCin1900to6.9GtCin2008(Lauketal.,2012).Percapita,carbonstoredin
woodproductsamountedto~1.4tC/capin1900and~1.0tC/capin2008.Thenetyearly
accumulationoflonglivedwoodproductsinusevariedbetween35and91MtC/yrintheperiod
19602008(Lauketal.,2012).TheyearlyaccumulationofCinproductsandlandfillswas~200
MtC/yrintheperiod19902008(Panetal.,2011).Ifmorelonglivedwoodproductswereused,C
sequestrationandmitigationcouldbeenhanced.
IncreasedwoodusedoesnotreduceGHGemissionsunderallcircumstancesbecausewoodharvest
reducestheamountofcarbonstoredintheforest,atleasttemporarily,andincreasesinwood
harvestlevelsmayresultinreducedlongtermcarbonstorageinforests(Ingerson,2011;Bttcheret
al.,2012;Holtsmark,2012;LamersandJunginger,2013).Reducingwoodconsumption,e.g.,through
paperrecycling,canreduceGHGemissions(AcuffandKaffine,2013),asmaytheuseofwoodfrom
sustainableforestryinplaceofemissionintensivematerialssuchasconcrete,steel,oraluminium.
Recentstudiessuggestthat,wheretechnicallypossible,substitutionofwoodfromsustainably
managedforestsfornonwoodmaterialsintheconstructionsector(concrete,steel,etc.)insingle
familyhomes,apartmenthouses,andindustrialbuildings,reducesGHGemissionsinmostcases
(Werneretal.,2010;SathreandOConnor,2010;XimenesandGrant,2013).Mostoftheemission
reductionresultsfromreducedproductionemissions,whereastheroleofcarbonsequestrationin
productsisrelativelysmall(SathreandOConnor,2010).Werneretal.(2010)showthatGHG
benefitsarehighestwhenwoodisprimarilyusedforlonglivedproducts,thelifetimeofproductsis
maximized,andenergyuseofwoodybiomassisfocusedonbyproducts,woodwastes,andendof
lifecycleuseoflonglivedwoodproducts.
11.4.4 Feedbacksofchangesinlanddemand
MitigationoptionsintheAFOLUsector,includingoptionssuchasbiomassproductionforenergy,are
highlyinterdependentduetotheirdirectandindirectimpactsonlanddemand.Indirect
interrelationships,mediatedviaareademandforfoodproduction,whichinturnaffectsthearea
availableforotherpurposes,aredifficulttoquantifyandrequiresystemicapproaches.Table11.4
(Smithetal.,2013b)showsthemagnitudeofpossiblefeedbacksinthelandsystemin2050.Itfirst
reportstheeffectofsinglemitigationoptionscomparedtoareferencecase,andthenthecombined
effectofalloptions.Thereferencecaseissimilartothe(FAO,2006a)projectionsfor2050and
assumesacontinuationofongoingtrendstowardsricherdiets,considerablyhighercroplandyields
(+54%)andmoderatelyincreasedcroplandareas(+9%).Thedietchangecaseassumesaglobal
contractandconvergescenariotowardsanutritionallysufficientlowanimalproductdiet(8%of
foodcaloriesfromanimalproducts).Theyieldgrowthcaseassumesthatyieldsin2050are9%
higherthanthoseinthereferencecase,accordingtotheGlobalOrchestrationscenarioin(MEA,
2005).Thefeedingefficiencycaseassumesonaverage17%higherlivestockfeedingefficienciesthan
thereferencecase.Thewastereductioncaseassumesareductionofthelossesinthefoodsupply
chainby25%(Section11.4.3).Thecombinationofalloptionsresultsinasubstantialreductionof
croplandandgrazingareas(Smithetal.,2013b),eventhoughtheindividualoptionscannotsimply
beaddedupduetotheinteractionsbetweentheindividualcompartments.
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Table11.4showsthatdemandsideoptionssaveGHGbyfreeinguplandforbioenergyor
afforestationandrelatedcarbonsequestration.Theeffectisstrongandnonlinear,andmorethan
cancelsoutreducedCsequestrationpotentialsonfarmland.Demandsidepotentialsaresubstantial
comparedtosupplysidemitigationpotentials(Section11.3),butimplementationmaybedifficult
(Sections11.7;11.8).EstimatesofGHGsavingsfrombioenergyaresubjecttolargeuncertainties
relatedtotheassumptionsregardingpowerplants,utilizationpathway,energycropyields,and
effectivenessofsustainabilitycriteria(Sections11.4.5;11.7;11.13).
Table 11.4 Changes in global land use and related GHG reduction potentials in 2050 assuming the
implementation of options to increase C sequestration on farmland, and use of spared land for either
biomass production for energy or afforestation. Afforestation and biomass for bioenergy are both
assumed to be implemented only on spare land and are mutually exclusive (Smith et al., 2013b).
Cases Food Livestock Csinkon Afforestati Biomass Total Differencein

crop grazing farm onofspare for mitigation mitigation
area area land* land**,1 bioenergy potential from
onspare reference
land**,2 case
[Gha] GtCO2eq/yr
Reference 1.60 4.07 3.5 6.1 1.29.4 4.612.9 0
Dietchange 1.38 3.87 3.2 11.0 2.117.0 5.320.2 0.77.3
Yieldgrowth 1.49 4.06 3.4 7.3 1.411.4 4.814.8 0.21.9
Feeding 1.53 4.04 3.4 7.2 1.411.1 4.814.5 0.21.6
efficiency
Waste 1.50 3.82 3.3 10.1 1.915.6 5.218.9 0.66.0
reduction
Combined 1.21 3.58 2.9 16.5 3.225.6 6.128.5 1.515.6
* Potential for C sequestration on cropland for food production and livestock grazing land with
improved soil C management. The potential C sequestration rate was derived from Smith et al.,
(2008).
** Spare land is cropland or grazing land not required for food production, assuming increased but still
sustainable stocking densities of livestock based on Haberl et al., (2011); Erb et al., (2012).
1
Assuming 11.8 (tCO2eq/ha)/yr (Smith et al., 2000).
2
Assumptions were as follows. High bioenergy value: short-rotation coppice or energy grass directly
replaces fossil fuels, energy return on investment 1:30, dry-matter biomass yield 190 GJ/ha/yr
(WBGU, 2009). Low bioenergy value: ethanol from maize replaces gasoline and reduces GHG by
45%, energy yield 75 GJ/ha/yr (Chum et al., 2011). Some energy crops may, under certain conditions,
sequester C in addition to delivering bioenergy; the effect is context-specific and was not included.
Whether bioenergy or afforestation is a better option to use spare land for mitigation needs to be
decided on a case-by-case basis.
Thesystemiceffectsoflanddemandingmitigationoptionssuchasbioenergyorafforestation
dependnotonlyontheirownareademand,butalsoonlanddemandforfoodandfibresupply
(Chumetal.,2011;Coelhoetal.,2012;Erbetal.,2012b).In2007,energycropsfortransportfuels
coveredabout26.6Mhaor1.7%ofglobalcropland(UNEP,2009).Assumptionsonenergycrop
yields(Section11.13)arethemainreasonforthelargedifferencesinestimatesoffuturearea
demandofenergycropsinthenextdecades,whichvaryfrom<100Mhato>1000Mha,i.e.,770%
ofcurrentcropland(Simsetal.,2006;Smeetsetal.,2007;PaccaandMoreira,2011;Coelhoetal.,
2012).Increasedpressureonlandsystemsmayalsoemergewhenafforestationclaimsland,or
forestconservationrestrictsfarmlandexpansion(MurtaughandSchlax,2009;Poppetal.,2011).
LanddemandingmitigationoptionsmayresultinfeedbackssuchasGHGemissionsfromland
expansionoragriculturalintensification,higheryieldsoffoodcrops,higherpricesofagricultural
products,reducedfoodconsumption,displacementoffoodproductiontootherregionsand
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consequentlandclearing,aswellasimpactsonbiodiversityandnonprovisioningecosystemservices
(Plevinetal.,2010;Poppetal.,2012).
Restrictionstoagriculturalexpansionduetoforestconservation,increasedenergycroparea,
afforestationandreforestationmayincreasecostsofagriculturalproductionandfoodprices.Ina
modellingstudy,conservingCrichnaturalvegetationsuchastropicalforestswasfoundtoincrease
foodpricesbyafactorof1.75until2100,duetorestrictionsofcroplandexpansion,evenifno
growthofenergycropareawasassumed(Wiseetal.,2009).Foodpriceindices(weightedaverageof
cropandlivestockproducts)areestimatedtoincreaseuntil2100by82%inAfrica,73%inLatin
America,and52%inPacificAsiaiflargescalebioenergydeploymentiscombinedwithstrictforest
conservation,comparedtoareferencescenariowithoutforestconservationandbioenergy(Poppet
al.,2011).Furthertradeliberalizationcanleadtolowercostsoffood,butalsoincreasesthepressure
onland,especiallyontropicalforests(Schmitzetal.,2011).
IncreasedlanddemandforGHGmitigationcanbepartiallycompensatedbyhigheragriculturalyield
perunitarea(Poppetal.,2011).Whileyieldincreasescanleadtoimprovementsinoutputfromless
land,generatebettereconomicreturnsforfarmers,helptoreducecompetitionforland,and
alleviateenvironmentalpressures(Burneyetal.,2010;Smithetal.,2010),agriculturalintensification
ifpoorlyimplementedincurseconomiccosts(LotzeCampenetal.,2010)andmayalsocreatesocial
andenvironmentalproblemssuchasnutrientleaching,soildegradation,pesticidepollution,impact
onanimalwelfare,andmanymore(IAASTD,2009).Maintainingyieldgrowthwhilereducing
negativeenvironmentalandsocialeffectsofagriculturalintensificationis,therefore,acentral
challenge,requiringsustainablemanagementofnaturalresourcesaswellastheincreaseof
resourceefficiency(DeFriesandRosenzweig,2010),twocomponentsofsustainableintensification
(Garnettetal.,2013).
Additionallanddemandmayputpressuresonbiodiversity,asLUCisoneofthemostimportant
driversofbiodiversityloss(Salaetal.,2000).Improperlymanagedlargescaleagriculture(or
bioenergy)maynegativelyaffectbiodiversity(Groometal.,2008),whichisakeyprerequisiteforthe
resilienceofecosystems,i.e.,theirabilitytoadapttochangessuchasclimatechange,andto
continuetodeliverecosystemservicesinthefuture(Dazetal.,2006;Landisetal.,2008).However,
implementingappropriatemanagement,suchasestablishingbioenergycropsorplantationsfor
carbonsequestrationinalreadydegradedecosystemsareasrepresentsanopportunitywhere
bioenergycanbeusedtoachievepositiveenvironmentaloutcomes(e.g.,(Hilletal.,2006;Semere
andSlater,2007;Campbelletal.,2008;Nijsenetal.,2012).Becauseclimatechangeisalsoan
importantdriverofbiodiversityloss(Salaetal.,2000),bioenergyforclimatechangemitigationmay
alsobebeneficialforbiodiversityifitisplannedwithbiodiversityconservationinmind(Hellerand
Zavaleta,2009;Dawsonetal.,2011);Section11.13).
Tradeoffsrelatedtolanddemandmaybereducedthroughmultifunctionallanduse,i.e.,the
optimizationoflandtogeneratemorethanoneproductorservicesuchasfood,animalfeed,energy
ormaterials,soilprotection,wastewatertreatment,recreation,ornatureprotection(deGroot,
2006;DeFriesandRosenzweig,2010);Section11.7).Thisalsoappliestothepotentialuseofponds
andothersmallwaterbodiesforraisingfishfedwithagriculturalwaste(Pullinetal.,2007).
11.4.5 Sustainabledevelopmentandbehaviouralaspects
TheassessmentofimpactsofAFOLUmitigationoptionsonsustainabledevelopmentrequiresan
understandingofacomplexmultilevelsystemwheresocialactorsmakelandusedecisionsaimedat
variousdevelopmentgoals,oneofthembeingclimatechangemitigation.Dependingonthespecific
objectives,thebeneficiariesofaparticularlandusechoicemaydiffer.Thustradeoffsbetween
global,national,andlocalconcernsandvariousstakeholdersneedtobeconsidered(seealsoSection
4.3.7andWGIIChapter20).ThedevelopmentcontextprovidesopportunitiesorbarriersforAFOLU
(Mayetal.,2005;Madleneretal.,2006;SmithandTrines,2006;Smithetal.,2007;Angelsen,2008;
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Howdenetal.,2008;CorberaandBrown,2008;Cotulaetal.,2009;Cattaneoetal.,2010;Junginger
etal.,2011;Section11.8andFigure11.11).

Figure 11.11. Dynamic interactions between the development context and AFOLU
Further,AFOLUmeasureshaveadditionaleffectsondevelopment,beyondimprovingtheGHG
balance(Foleyetal.,2005;Aligetal.,2010;Calfapietraetal.,2010;Buschetal.,2011;Smithetal.,
2013b;Brancaetal.,2013;AlbersandRobinson,2013).Theseeffectscanbepositive(cobenefits)or
negative(adversesideeffects)anddonotnecessarilyoverlapgeographically,sociallyorintime
(Section11.7andFigure11.11).Thiscreatesthepossibilityoftradeoffs,becauseanAFOLUmeasure
canbringcobenefitstoonesocialgroupinonearea(e.g.,increasingincome),whilebringing
adversesideeffectstootherssomewhereelse(e.g.,reducingfoodavailability).
Table11.5summarizestheissuescommonlyconsideredwhenassessingtheabovementioned
interactionsatvariouslevelsbetweensustainabledevelopmentandAFOLU.
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Table 11.5 Issues related to AFOLU measures and sustainable development
Dimensions Issues
Socialand Populationgrowthandmigration,levelofeducation,humancapacity,individual
humanassets skills,indigenousandtraditionalknowledge,culturalvalues,equityandhealth,
animalwelfare,organizationalcapacity
Naturalassets Availabilityofnaturalresources(land,forest,water,agriculturalland,minerals,
fauna),GHGbalance,ecosystemintegrity,biodiversityconservation,ecosystem
services,theproductivecapacityofecosystems,ecosystemhealthandresilience
Stateof Availabilityofinfrastructureandtechnologyandindustrialcapacity,technology
infrastructure development,appropriateness,acceptance
andtechnology
Economic Creditcapacity,employmentcreation,income,wealthdistribution/distribution
factors mechanisms,carbonfinance,availablecapital/investments,marketaccess
Institutional Landtenureandlanduserights,participationanddecision makingmechanisms
arrangements (e.g.,throughFree,PriorandInformedConsent),sectoralandcrosssectoral
policies,investmentinresearch,tradeagreementsandincentives,benefitsharing
mechanisms,existenceandformsofsocialorganization,
Based on Madlener et al. (2006), Sneddon et al. (2006), Pretty (2008), Corbera and Brown (2008),
Macauley and Sedjo (2011), and de Boer et al. (2011).
Socialcomplexity:SocialactorsintheAFOLUsectorincludeindividuals(farmers,forestusers),social
groups (communities, indigenous groups), private companies (e.g., concessionaires, foodproducer
multinationals),subnationalauthorities,andnationalstates(seeTable11.6).
Table 11.6 Characterization of social actors in AFOLU
Socialactors Characterization
Individuals(legalandillegal Rathersmallscaleinterventions,althoughsomecanbemediumscale
forestusers,farmers) Decisionstakenratheratthelocallevel
Socialgroups(communities, Smalltomediuminterventions
indigenouspeoples) Decisionstakenatthelocalorregionallevels
Subnationalauthorities Mediumtolargeinterventions
(provinces,states) Decisionstakenatthenationalorsubnationallevel,dependingonthe
governancestructure
State(nationallevel) Ratherlargeinterventions
Decisionstakenatthenationallevel,ofteninlinewithinternational
agreements
Corporate(atthenational Ratherlargeinterventions.Decisionscanbetakenwithinaspecific
ormultinationallevels) region/country,inanothercountry,oratgloballevel(e.g.,for
multinationalcompanies).Nationalandinternationalmarketsplaya
keyroleindecisionmaking
Spatialscalerefersontheonehandtothesizeofanintervention(e.g.,innumberofhectares)and
ontheotherhandtothebiophysicalcharacterizationofthespecificland(e.g.,soiltype,water
availability,slope).Socialinteractionstendtobecomemorecomplexthebiggertheareaofan
AFOLUintervention,onasocialbiophysicalcontinuum:family/farmneighbourhoodcommunity
villagecityprovincecountryregionglobe.ImpactsfromAFOLUmeasuresonsustainable
developmentaredifferentalongthisspatialscalecontinuum(Table11.6).Thechallengeisto
providelandscapegovernancethatrespondstosocietalneedsaswellasbiophysicalcapacityat
differentspatialscales(Grg,2007;MoilanenandArponen,2011;vanderHorstandVermeylen,
2011).
Temporalscale:Astheconceptofsustainabledevelopmentincludescurrentandfuturegenerations,
theimpactsofAFOLUovertimeneedtobeconsidered(seeChapter4).Positiveandnegative
impactsofAFOLUmeasurescanberealizedatdifferenttimes.Forinstance,whilereducing
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deforestationhasanimmediatepositiveimpactonreducingGHGemissions,reforestationwillhave
apositiveimpactonCsequestrationovertime.Further,insomecircumstances,thereistheriskof
reversingcurrentemissionreductionsinthefuture(seeSection11.3.2onnonpermanence).
Behaviouralaspects:Levelofeducation,culturalvaluesandtradition,aswellasaccesstomarkets
andtechnology,andthedecisionpowerofindividualsandsocialgroups,allinfluencetheperception
ofpotentialimpactsandopportunitiesfromAFOLUmeasures,andconsequentlyhaveagreatimpact
onlocallandmanagementdecisions(seeChapters2,3,and4;Guthinga,2008;DurandandLazos,
2008;Gilg,2009;Bhuiyanetal.,2010;PrimmerandKarppinen,2010;DurandandVzquez,2011).
Whendecisionsaretakenatahigheradministrativelevel(e.g.,internationalcorporations,regional
authoritiesornationalstates),otherfactorsorvaluesplayanimportantrole,includingnationaland
internationaldevelopmentgoalsandpriorities,policiesandcommitments,internationalmarketsor
corporateimage(seeChapters3and4).Table11.7summarizestheemergingbehaviouralaspects
regardingAFOLUmitigationmeasures.
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Table 11.7 Emerging behavioural aspects relevant for AFOLU mitigation measures
Change EmergingbehaviouralaspectsinAFOLU
in
Dietarychange:SeveralchangesindietcanpotentiallyreduceGHGemissions,includingreduction
Consumptionpatterns
offoodwasteandreductionoforchangesinmeatconsumption(especiallyinindustrialized
countries).Ontheotherhand,increasingincomeandevolvinglifestyleswithincreasing
consumptionofanimalproteinindevelopingcountriesareprojectedtoincreasefoodrelatedGHG
emissions.
ThepotentialofreducingGHGemissionsinthefoodsectorneedstobeunderstoodinawiderand
changingsocioculturalcontextthatdeterminesnutrition.
Potentialdriversofchange:Healthawarenessandinformation,incomeincrease,lifestyle
References1,2,3,4,5
Largescalelandacquisition:Theacquisitionof(longtermrights)oflargeareasoffarmlandin
lowerincomecountries,bytransnationalcompanies,agribusiness,investmentsfundsor
Productionpatterns
governmentagencies.TherearevariouslinksbetweentheseacquisitionsandGHGemissionsinthe
AFOLUsector.Ononehandbecausesomeacquisitionsareaimedatproducingenergycrops
(throughnonfoodorflexcrops),ontheotherbecausethesecancausethedisplacementof
peoplesandactivity,increasingGHGleakage.
Impactsonlivelihood,localusersrights,localemployment,economicactivity,oronbiodiversity
conservationareofconcern.
Potentialdriversofchange:Internationalmarketsandtheirmechanisms,nationalandinternational
policies
References6,7,8
Switchingtolowcarbonproducts: Landmanagersaresensitivetomarketchanges.Thepromotion
oflowcarbonproductsasameansforreducingGHGemissionscanincreasethelandarea
Productionand
consumption
dedicatedtotheseproducts.Sideeffectsfromthischangesinlandmanagement(positiveand
patterns
negative),andacceptabilityofproductsandtechnologiesattheproductionandconsumptionsides
arecontextrelatedandcannotbegeneralized
Potentialdriversofchange:Internationalagreementsandmarkets,accessibilitytoruralenergy,
changesinenergydemand
References9,10,11
Certification:Labelling,certification, orotherinformationbasedinstrumentshavebeendeveloped
Relationbetween
producersand
forpromotingbehaviouralchangestowardsmoresustainableproducts(Section11.10).Recently,
consumers
theroleofcertificationinreducingGHGwhileimprovingsustainabilityhasbeenexplored,especially
forbioenergy(Section11.13).
Potentialdriversofchange:Consumerawareness,internationalagreements,crossnationalsector
policiesandinitiatives.
References11,12,13,14
Increasinginterestinconservationandsustainable (land)management: Changingmanagement
practicestowardsmoresustainableonesasalternativeforgainingbothenvironmentalandsocial
Management
cobenefits,includingclimatechangemitigation,isgainingrecognition.Concernsaboutspecific
priorities
managementpractices,accountabilitymethodsofcobenefits,andsharingmechanismsseemtobe
elementsofconcernswhenpromotingamoresustainablemanagementofnaturalresources.
Potentialdriversofchange:Policiesandinternationalagreementsandtheirincentivemechanisms,
schemesforpaymentsforenvironmentalservices.
References15,16,17,18,19
1
Stehfest et al. (2009); 2Roy et al. (2012); 3Gonzlez et al. (2011); 4Popp et al. (2010); 5Schneider et al. (2011);
6
Cotula (2012); 7Messerli et al. (2013); 8German et al. (2013); 9Muys et al. (2013); 10MacMillan Uribe et al. (2012);
11
Chakrabarti (2010); 12Karipidis et al. (2010); 13Auld et al. (2008); 14Diaz-Chavez (2011); 15Calegari et al. (2008);
16
Deal et al. (2012); 17DeFries and Rosenzweig (2010); 18Hein and van der Meer (2012);19 Lippke et al. (2003).
Landusepolicies(Section11.10)havethechallengeofbalancingimpactsconsideringthese
parameters:socialcomplexity,spatialscale,temporalscale,andbehaviouralaspects.VlekandKeren
(1992)andVlek(2004)indicatethefollowingdilemmasrelevanttolandmanagementdecisions:
Whoshouldtaketherisks,when(thisgenerationorfuturegenerations)andwhere(specificplace)
cobenefitsandpotentialadverseeffectswilltakeplace,andhowtomediatebetweenindividualvs.
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socialbenefits.Addressingthesedilemmasiscontextspecific.Nevertheless,thefactthatawide
rangeofsocialactorsneedtofacethesedilemmasexplains,toacertainextent,disagreements
aboutenvironmentaldecisionmakingingeneral,andlandmanagementdecisionsinparticular
(Villamoretal.,2011;Leetal.,2012);seeSection11.10).
11.5 Climatechangefeedbackandinteractionwithadaptation(includes
vulnerability)
Whenreviewingtheinterlinkagesbetweenclimatechangemitigationandadaptationwithinthe
AFOLUsectorthefollowingissuesneedtobeconsidered:(i)theimpactofclimatechangeonthe
mitigationpotentialofaparticularactivity(e.g.,forestryandagriculturalsoils)overtime,(ii)
potentialsynergies/tradeoffswithinalandusesectorbetweenmitigationandadaptationobjectives,
and(iii)potentialtradeoffsacrosssectorsbetweenmitigationandadaptationobjectives.
Mitigationandadaptationinlandbasedecosystemsarecloselyinterlinkedthroughawebof
feedbacks,synergies,andtradeoffs(Section11.8).Themitigationoptionsthemselvesmaybe
vulnerabletoclimaticchange(Section11.3.2)ortheremaybepossiblesynergiesortradeoffs
betweenmitigationandadaptationoptionswithinoracrossAFOLUsectors.
TheIPCCWGIpresentsfeedbacksbetweenclimatechangeandthecarboncycle(WGIChapter6;(Le
Quretal.,2013),whileWGIIassessestheimpactsofclimatechangeonterrestrialecosystems
(WGIIChapter4)andcropproductionsystems(WGIIChapter7),includingvulnerabilityand
adaptation.Thissectionfocusesparticularlyontheimpactsofclimatechangeonmitigation
potentialoflandusesectorsandinteractionsthatarisewithadaptation,linkingtotherelevant
chaptersofWGIandWGIIreports.
11.5.1 FeedbacksbetweenALOFUandclimatechange
AFOLUactivitiescaneitherreduceoraccelerateclimatechangebyaffectingbiophysicalprocesses
(e.g.,evapotranspiration,albedo)andchangeinGHGfluxestoandfromtheatmosphere(WGI).
WhetheraparticularecosystemisfunctioningassinkorsourceofGHGemissionmaychangeover
time,dependingonitsvulnerabilitytoclimatechangeandotherstressorsanddisturbances.Hence,
mitigationoptionsavailabletoday(Section11.3)intheAFOLUsectorsmaynolongerbeavailablein
thefuture.
Thereisrobustevidencethathumaninducedlandusechangeshaveledtoanincreasedsurface
albedo(WGIChapter8;(MyhreandShindell,2013).Changesinevapotranspirationandsurface
roughnessmaycounteracttheeffectofchangesinalbedo.Landusechangesaffectlatentheatflux
andinfluencethehydrologicalcycle.Biophysicalclimatefeedbacksofforestecosystemsdiffer
dependingonregionalclimateregimeandforesttypes.Forexample,adecreaseintropicalforests
hasapositiveclimateforcingthroughadecreaseinevaporativecooling(Balaetal.,2007;Bonan,
2008).Anincreaseinconiferousborealforestscomparedtograssandsnowprovidesapositive
climateforcingthroughloweringalbedo(Balaetal.,2007;Bonan,2008;Swannetal.,2010).Thereis
currentlylowagreementonthenetbiophysicaleffectoflandusechangesontheglobalmean
temperature(WGIChapter8;(MyhreandShindell,2013).Bycontrast,thebiogeochemicaleffectsof
LUConradiativeforcingthroughemissionsofGHGispositive(WGIChapter8;Sections11.2.2;
11.2.3).
11.5.2 Implicationsofclimatechangeonterrestrialcarbonpoolsandmitigation
potentialofforests
Projectionsoftheglobalcarboncycleto2100usingCoupledModelIntercomparisonProjectPhase
5(CMIP5)EarthSystemModels(WGIChapter6;(LeQuretal.,2013)thatrepresentawiderrange
ofcomplexinteractionsbetweenthecarboncycleandthephysicalclimatesystemconsistently
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estimateapositivefeedbackbetweenclimateandthecarboncycle,i.e.,reducednaturalsinksor
increasednaturalCO2sourcesinresponsetofutureclimatechange.Implicationsofclimatechange
onterrestrialcarbonpoolsbiomesandmitigationpotentialofforests.
Risingtemperatures,drought,andfiresmayleadtoforestsbecomingaweakersinkoranetcarbon
sourcebeforetheendofthecentury(Sitchetal.,2008).Pervasivedroughts,disturbancessuchas
fireandinsectoutbreaks,exacerbatedbyclimateextremesandclimatechangeputthemitigation
benefitsoftheforestsatrisk(CanadellandRaupach,2008;Phillipsetal.,2009;Herawatiand
Santoso,2011).Forestdisturbancesandclimateextremeshaveassociatedcarbonbalance
implications(Millaretal.,2007;Kurzetal.,2008;ZhaoandRunning,2010;Potteretal.,2011;
Davidson,2012;Reichsteinetal.,2013).Allenetal.(2010)suggestthatatleastsomeoftheworlds
forestedecosystemsmayalreadyberespondingtoclimatechange.
Experimentalstudiesandobservationssuggestthatpredictedchangesintemperature,rainfall
regimes,andhydrologymaypromotethediebackoftropicalforests(e.g.,(Nepstadetal.,2007).
TheprolongeddroughtconditionsintheAmazonregionduring2005contributedtoadeclinein
abovegroundbiomassandtriggeredareleaseof4.40to5.87GtCO2(Phillipsetal.,2009).Earlier
modelstudiessuggestedAmazondiebackinthefuture(Coxetal.,2013;Huntingfordetal.,2013).
However,recentmodelestimatessuggestthatrainforestsmaybemoreresilienttoclimatechange,
projectingamoderateriskoftropicalforestreductioninSouthAmericaandevenlowerriskfor
AfricanandAsiantropicalforests(Gumpenbergeretal.,2010;Coxetal.,2013;Huntingfordetal.,
2013).
(ArcidiaconoBrsonyetal.,2011)suggestthatthemitigationbenefitsfromdeforestationreduction
underREDD+(Section11.10.1)couldbereversedduetoincreasedfireevents,andclimateinduced
feedbacks,while(Gumpenbergeretal.,2010)concludethattheprotectionofforestsunderthe
forestconservation(includingREDD)programmescouldincreasecarbonuptakeinmanytropical
countries,mainlyduetoCO2fertilizationeffects,evenunderclimatechangeconditions.
11.5.3 Implicationsofclimatechangeonpeatlands,grasslands,andcroplands
Peatlands:Wetlands,peatlands,andpermafrostsoilscontainhighercarbondensitiesrelativeto
mineralsoils,andtogethertheycompriseextremelylargestocksofcarbonglobally(Davidsonand
Janssens,2006).Peatlandscoverapproximately3%oftheEarthslandareaandareestimatedto
contain350550Gtofcarbon,roughlybetween20to25%oftheworldssoilorganiccarbonstock
(Gorham,1991;Fenneretal.,2011).PeatlandscanloseCO2throughplantrespirationandaerobic
peatdecomposition(Clairetal.,2002)andwiththeonsetofclimatechange,maybecomeasource
ofCO2(Koehleretal.,2010).Largecarbonlossesarelikelyfromdeepburningfiresinboreal
peatlandsunderfutureprojectionsofclimatewarminganddrying(Flanniganetal.,2009).Astudyby
Fenneretal.(2011)suggeststhatclimatechangeisexpectedtoincreasethefrequencyandseverity
ofdroughtinmanyoftheworldspeatlandswhich,inturn,willreleasefarmoreGHGemissionsthan
thoughtpreviously.Climatechangeisprojectedtohaveasevereimpactonthepeatlandsin
northernregionswheremostoftheperenniallyfrozenpeatlandsarefound(Tarnocai,2006).
AccordingtoSchuuretal.(2008),thethawingpermafrostandconsequentmicrobialdecomposition
ofpreviouslyfrozenorganiccarbon,isoneofthemostsignificantpotentialfeedbacksfrom
terrestrialecosystemstotheatmosphereinachangingclimate.Largeareasofpermafrostwill
experiencethawing(WGIChapter12),butuncertaintyoverthemagnitudeoffrozencarbonlosses
throughCO2orCH4emissionstotheatmospherearelarge,rangingbetween180and920GtCO2by
theendofthe21stcenturyundertheRepresentativeConcentrationPathways(RCP)8.5scenario
(WGIChapter6;(LeQuretal.,2013).
Grasslands:Treecoverandbiomassinsavannahhasincreasedoverthepastcentury(Angassaand
Oba,2008;Wittetal.,2009;Luntetal.,2010;RohdeandHoffman,2012)leadingtoincreased
carbonstorageperhectare(Hughesetal.,2006;Liaoetal.,2006;ThroopandArcher,2008;Boutton
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etal.,2009),whichhasbeenattributedtolandmanagement,risingCO2,climatevariability,and
climatechange.ClimatechangeandCO2mayaffectgrazingsystemsbyalteringspeciescomposition;
forexample,warmingwillfavourtropical(C4)speciesovertemperate(C3)speciesbutCO2increase
wouldfavourC3grasses(Howdenetal.,2008).
Croplands:Climatechangeimpactsonagriculturewillaffectnotonlycropyields,butalsosoil
organiccarbon(SOC)levelsinagriculturalsoils(RosenzweigandTubiello,2007).Suchimpactscanbe
eitherpositiveornegative,dependingontheparticulareffectconsidered,whichhighlightsthe
uncertaintyoftheimpacts.ElevatedCO2aloneareexpectedtohavepositiveeffectsonsoilcarbon
storage,becauseofincreasedaboveandbelowgroundbiomassproductioninagroecosystems.
Similarly,thelengtheningofthegrowingseasonunderfutureclimatewillallowforincreasedcarbon
inputsintosoils.WarmertemperaturescouldhavenegativeimpactsonSOC,byspeeding
decompositionandbyreducinginputsbyshorteningcroplifecycles(RosenzweigandTubiello,2007),
butincreasedproductivitycouldincreaseSOCstocks(Gottschalketal.,2012).
11.5.4 Potentialadaptationoptionstominimizetheimpactofclimatechangeoncarbon
stocksinforestsandagriculturalsoils
Forests:Forestecosystemsrequirealongerresponsetimetoadapt,thedevelopmentand
implementationofadaptationstrategiesisalsolengthy(LeemansandEickhout,2004;Ravindranath,
2007).Someexamplesoftheadaptationpractices(Murthyetal.,2011)areasfollows:anticipatory
plantingofspeciesalonglatitudeandaltitude,assistednaturalregeneration,mixedspeciesforestry,
speciesmixadaptedtodifferenttemperaturetoleranceregimes,fireprotectionandmanagement
practices,thinning,sanitationandothersilviculturalpractices,insituandexsituconservationof
geneticdiversity,droughtandpestresistanceincommercialtreespecies,adoptionofsustainable
forestmanagementpractices,increaseinProtectedAreasandlinkingthemwhereverpossibleto
promotemigrationofspecies,forestsconservationandreducedforestfragmentationenabling
speciesmigration,andenergyefficientfuelwoodcookingdevicestoreducepressureonforests.
Agriculturalsoils:Oncurrentagriculturalland,mitigationandadaptationinteractioncanbe
mutuallyreenforcing,particularlyforimprovingresiliencetoincreasedclimatevariabilityunder
climatechange(RosenzweigandTubiello,2007).Manymitigationpracticesimplementedlocallyfor
soilcarbonsequestrationwillincreasetheabilityofsoilstoholdsoilmoistureandtobetter
withstanderosionandwillenrichecosystembiodiversitybyestablishingmorediversifiedcropping
systems,andmayalsohelpcroppingsystemstobetterwithstanddroughtsandfloods,bothofwhich
areprojectedtoincreaseinfrequencyandseverityunderafuturewarmerclimate(Rosenzweigand
Tubiello,2007).
11.5.5 Mitigationandadaptationsynergiesandtradeoffs
Mitigationchoicestakeninaparticularlandusesectormayfurtherenhanceorreduceresilienceto
climatevariabilityandchangewithinoracrosssectors.Inlightofthemultiple,andoftencompeting,
pressuresonland(Section11.4),andshiftingdemographicsandconsumptionpatterns(e.g.,
(OBrienetal.,2004;Sperlingetal.,2008;HunsbergerandEvans,2012).Landusechoicesdrivenby
mitigationconcerns(e.g.,forestconservation,afforestation)mayhaveconsequencesforadaptive
responsesand/ordevelopmentobjectivesofothersectors(e.g.,expansionofagriculturalland).For
example,reducingemissionsfromdeforestationanddegradationmayalsoyieldcobenefitsfor
adaptationbymaintainingbiodiversityandotherecosystemgoodsandservices,whileplantations,if
theyreducebiologicaldiversitymaydiminishadaptivecapacitytoclimatechange(e.g.,(Chumetal.,
2011).Primaryforeststendtobemoreresilienttoclimatechangeandotherhumaninduced
environmentalchangesthansecondaryforestsandplantations(Thompsonetal.,2009).Theimpact
ofplantationsonthecarbonbalanceisdependentonthelandusesystemtheyreplace,while
plantationforestsareoftenmonospeciesstands,theymaybemorevulnerabletoclimaticchange
(seeIPCCWGIIChapter4).SmithandOlesen(2010)identifiedanumberofsynergiesbetween
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optionsthatdelivermitigationinagriculturewhilealsoenhancingresiliencetofutureclimate
change,themostprominentofwhichwasenhancementofsoilcarbonstocks.
Adaptationmeasuresinreturnmayhelpmaintainthemitigationpotentialoflandusesystems.For
example,projectsthatpreventfiresandrestoredegradedforestecosystemsalsopreventreleaseof
GHGsandenhancecarbonstocks(CBDandGiZ,2011).Mitigationandadaptationbenefitscanalso
beachievedwithinbroaderlevelobjectivesofAFOLUmeasures,whicharelinkedtosustainable
developmentconsiderations.Giventheexposureofmanylivelihoodsandcommunitiestomultiple
stressors,recommendationsfromcasestudiessuggestthatclimateriskmanagementstrategies
needtoappreciatethefullhazardriskenvelope,aswellasthecompoundingsocioeconomic
stressors(OBrienetal.,2004;Sperlingetal.,2008).Withinthisbroadcontext,thepotential
tradeoffsandsynergiesbetweenmitigation,adaptation,anddevelopmentstrategiesandmeasures
needtobeconsidered.Forestandbiodiversityconservation,protectedareaformation,andmixed
speciesforestrybasedafforestationarepracticesthatcanhelptomaintainorenhancecarbon
stocks,whilealsoprovidingadaptationoptionstoenhanceresilienceofforestecosystemstoclimate
change(Ravindranath,2007).Useoforganicsoilamendmentsasasourceoffertilitycould
potentiallyincreasesoilcarbon(Gattingeretal.,2012).Mostcategoriesofadaptationoptionsfor
climatechangehavepositiveimpactsonmitigation.Intheagriculturesector,croplandadaptation
optionsthatalsocontributetomitigationaresoilmanagementpracticesthatreducefertilizeruse
andincreasecropdiversification;promotionoflegumesincroprotations;increasingbiodiversity,
theavailabilityofqualityseedsandintegratedcrop/livestocksystems;promotionoflowenergy
productionsystems;improvingthecontrolofwildfiresandavoidingburningofcropresidues;and
promotingefficientenergyusebycommercialagricultureandagroindustries(FAO,2008,2009a).
Agroforestryisanexampleofmitigationadaptationsynergyinagriculturesector,sincetreesplanted
sequestercarbonandtreeproductsprovidelivelihoodtocommunities,especiallyduringdrought
years(Verchotetal.,2007).
11.6 Costsandpotentials
Thissectiondealswitheconomiccostsandpotentialsofclimatechangemitigation(emission
reductionorsequestrationofcarbon)withintheAFOLUsector.Economicmitigationpotentialsare
distinguishedfromtechnicalormarketmitigationpotentials(Smith,2012).Technicalmitigation
potentialsrepresentthefullbiophysicalpotentialofamitigationoption,withoutaccountingfor
economicorotherconstraints.Theseestimatesaccountforconstraintsandfactorssuchasland
availabilityandsuitability(Smith,2012),butnotanyassociatedcosts(atleastexplicitly).By
comparison,economicpotentialreferstomitigationthatcouldberealizedatagivencarbonprice
overaspecificperiod,butdoesnottakeintoconsiderationanysociocultural(forexample,lifestyle
choices)orinstitutional(forexample,political,policy,andinformational)barrierstopracticeor
technologyadoption.Economicpotentialsareexpectedtobelowerthanthecorresponding
technicalpotentials.Also,policyincentives(e.g.,acarbonprice;seealsoSection11.10)and
competitionforresourcesacrossvariousmitigationoptions,tendtoaffectthesizeofeconomic
mitigationpotentialsintheAFOLUsector(McCarlandSchneider,2001).Finally,marketpotentialis
therealizedmitigationoutcomeundercurrentorforecastmarketconditionsencompassing
biophysical,economic,sociocultural,andinstitutionalbarriersto,aswellaspolicyincentivesfor,
technologicaland/orpracticeadoption,specifictoasubnational,nationalorsupranationalmarket
forcarbon.Figure11.12(Smith,2012)providesaschematicviewofthethreetypesofmitigation
potentials.
Economic(aswellasmarket)mitigationpotentialstendtobecontextspecificandarelikelytovary
acrossspatialandtemporalscales.Unlessotherwisestated,intherestofthissection,economic
potentialsareexpressedinmilliontonnes(Mt)ofmitigationincarbondioxideequivalent(CO2eq)
terms,thatcanarisefromanindividualmitigationoptionorfromanAFOLUsubsectoratagiven
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costpertonneofCO2eq.(USD/tCO2eq)overagivenperiodto2030,whichisadditionaltothe
correspondingbaselineorreferencecaselevels.
VarioussupplysidemitigationoptionswithintheAFOLUsectoraredescribedinSection11.3,and
Section11.4considersanumberofpotentialdemandsideoptions.Estimatesforcostsand
potentialsarenotalwaysavailablefortheindividualoptionsdescribed.Also,aggregateestimates
coveringboththesupplyanddemandsideoptionsformitigationwithintheAFOLUsectorare
lacking,sothissectionmostlyfocusesonthesupplysideoptions.Keyuncertaintiesandsensitivities
aroundmitigationcostsandpotentialsintheAFOLUsectorare(1)carbonprice,(2)prevailing
biophysicalandclimaticconditions,(3)existingmanagementheterogeneity(ordifferencesinthe
baselines),(4)managementinterdependencies(arisingfromcompetitionorcobenefitsacross
traditionproduction,environmentaloutcomesandmitigationstrategiesorcompetition/cobenefits
acrossmitigationoptions),(5)theextentofleakage,(6)differentialimpactondifferentGHGs
associatedwithaparticularmitigationoption,and(7)timeframeforabatementactivitiesandthe
discountrate.Inthissection,we(a)provideaggregatemitigationpotentialsfortheAFOLUsector
(becausethesewereprovidedseparatelyforagricultureandforestryinAR4),(b)provideestimates
ofglobalmitigationcostsandpotentialspublishedsinceAR4,and(c)providearegional
disaggregationofthepotentialstoshowhowpotential,andtheportfolioofavailableoptions,varies
indifferentworldregions.
Figure 11.12. Relationship between technical, economic, and market potential (based on (Smith,
2012)
11.6.1 Approachestoestimatingeconomicmitigationpotentials
BottomupandtopdownmodellingapproachesareusedtoestimateAFOLUmitigationpotentials
andcosts.Whilebothapproachesprovideusefulestimatesformitigationcostsandpotentials,
comparingbottomupandtopdownestimatesisnotstraightforward.
Bottomupestimatesaretypicallyderivedfordiscreteabatementoptionsinagricultureataspecific
locationortime,andareoftenbasedondetailedtechnological,engineeringandprocess
information,anddataonindividualtechnologies(DeAngeloetal.,2006).Thesestudiesprovide
estimatesofhowmuchtechnicalpotentialofparticularAFOLUmitigationoptionswillbecome
economicallyviableatcertaincarbondioxideequivalentprices.Bottomupmitigationresponsesare
typicallyrestrictedtoinputmanagement(forexample,changingpracticeswithfertilizerapplication
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andlivestockfeeding)andmitigationcostsestimatesareconsideredpartialequilibriuminthatthe
relevantinputoutputprices(and,sometimes,quantitiessuchasareaorproductionlevels)areheld
fixed.Assuch,unlessadjustedforpotentialoverlapsandtradeoffsacrossindividualmitigation
options,addingupvariousindividualestimatestoarriveatanaggregateforaparticularlandscapeor
ataparticularpointintimecouldbemisleading.
Witha'systems'approach,topdownmodels(describedinChapter6;Section11.9)typicallytake
intoaccountpossibleinteractionsbetweenindividualmitigationoptions.Thesemodelscanbe
sectorspecificoreconomywide,andcanvaryacrossgeographicalscales:subnational,national,
regional,andglobal.Mitigationstrategiesintopdownmodelsmayincludeabroadrangeof
managementresponsesandpracticechanges(forexample,movingfromcroppingtograzingor
grazingtoforestry)aswellaschangesininputoutputprices(forexample,landandcommodity
prices).Suchmodelscanbeusedtoassessthecostcompetitivenessofvariousmitigationoptions
andimplicationsacrossinputoutputmarkets,sectors,andregionsovertimeforlargescale
domesticorglobaladoptionofmitigationstrategies.Intopdownmodelling,dynamiccosteffective
portfoliosofabatementstrategiesareidentifiedincorporatingthelowestcostcombinationof
mitigationstrategiesovertimefromacrosssectors,includingagricultural,forestry,andotherland
basedsectorsacrosstheworldthatachievetheclimatestabilizationtarget(seeChapter6).Top
downestimatesfor2030areincludedinthissection,andarerevisitedinSection11.9when
consideringtheroleoftheAFOLUsectorintransformationpathways.
ProvidingconsolidatedestimatesofeconomicpotentialsformitigationwithintheAFOLUsectorasa
wholeiscomplicatedbecauseofcomplexinterdependencies,largelystemmingfromcompeting
demandsonlandforvariousagriculturalandforestry(productionandmitigation)activities,aswell
asfortheprovisionofmanyecosystemservices(Smithetal.,2013a).Theseinteractionsare
discussedinmoredetailinSection11.4.
11.6.2 GlobalestimatesofcostsandpotentialsintheAFOLUsector
ThroughcombinationofforestryandagriculturepotentialsfromIPCCAR4,totalmitigation
potentialsfortheAFOLUsectorareestimatedtobe~3to~7.2GtCO2eq/yrin2030at20and100
USD/tCO2eq,respectively(Figure11.13),includingonlysupplysideoptionsinagriculture(Smithet
al.,2007)andacombinationofsupplyanddemandsideoptionsforforestry(Nabuursetal.,2007).

Figure 11.13. Mitigation potential for the AFOLU sector, plotted using data from IPCC AR4 (Nabuurs
et al., 2007; Smith et al., 2007). Whiskers show the range of estimates (+/- 1 standard deviation) for
agricultural options for which estimates are available.
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EstimatesofglobaleconomicmitigationpotentialsintheAFOLUsectorpublishedsinceAR4are
showninFigure11.14,withAR4estimatesshownforcomparison(IPCC,2007a).

Figure 11.14. Estimates of economic mitigation potentials in the AFOLU sector published since AR4,
(AR4 estimates shown for comparison, denoted by arrows), including bottom-up, sectoral studies, and
top-down, multi-sector studies. Some studies estimate potential for agriculture and forestry, others for
one or other sector. Supply-side mitigation potentials are estimated for around 2030, but studies
range from estimates for 2025 (Rose et al., 2012) to 2035 (Rose and Sohngen, 2011). Studies are
collated for those reporting potentials at up to ~20 USD/tCO2eq (actual range 1.6421.45), up to ~50
USD/tCO2eq (actual range 31.3950.00), and up to ~100 USD/tCO2eq (actual range 70.0120.91).
Demand-side options (shown on the right-hand side of the figure) are for ~2050 and are not assessed
at a specific carbon price, and should be regarded as technical potentials. Smith et al. (2013) values
are mean of the range. Not all studies consider the same options or the same GHGs; further details
are given in the text.
Table11.8summarizestherangesofglobaleconomicmitigationpotentialsfromAR4(Nabuursetal.,
2007;Smithetal.,2007),andstudiespublishedsinceAR4thatareshowninfullinFigure11.14,for
agriculture,forestry,andAFOLUcombined.
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Table 11.8 Ranges of global mitigation potential (GtCO2eq/yr) reported since IPCC AR4. All values
are for 2030 except demand-side options that are for ~2050 (full data shown in Figure 11.14)
upto20 upto50 upto100 Technical

USD/tCO2eq USD/tCO2eq USD/tCO2eq potentialonly
Agricultureonly1 01.59 0.032.6 0.264.6
Forestryonly 0.011.45 0.119.5 0.213.8
AFOLUtotal1,2 0.123.03 0.55.06 0.4910.6
Demandsideoptions 0.768.55
1
All lower range values for agriculture are for non-CO2 GHG mitigation only and do not include soil C
sequestration
2
AFOLU total includes only estimates where both agriculture and forestry have been considered
together.
AsdescribedinSection11.3,sinceAR4,moreattentionhasbeenpaidtooptionsthatreduce
emissionsintensitybyimprovingtheefficiencyofproduction(i.e.,lessGHGemissionsperunitof
agriculturalproduct;(Burneyetal.,2010;Bennetzenetal.,2012).Asagriculturalandsilvicultural
efficiencyhaveimprovedoverrecentdecades,emissionsintensitieshavedeclined(Figure11.15).
Whilstemissionsintensityhasincreased(1960sto2000s)by45%forcereals,emissionsintensities
havedecreasedby38%formilk,50%forrice,45%forpigmeat,76%forchicken,and57%foreggs.

Figure 11.15. GHG emissions intensities of selected major AFOLU commodities for decades
1960s2000s, based on (Tubiello et al., 2012). i) Cattle meat, defined as GHG (enteric fermentation +
manure management of cattle, dairy and non-dairy)/meat produced; ii) Pig meat, defined as GHG
(enteric fermentation + manure management of swine, market and breeding) /meat produced; iii)
Chicken meat, defined as GHG (manure management of chickens)/meat produced; iv) Milk, defined
as GHG (enteric fermentation + manure management of cattle, dairy)/milk produced; v) Eggs, defined
as GHG (manure management of chickens, layers)/egg produced; vi) Rice, defined as GHG (rice
cultivation)/rice produced; vii) Cereals, defined as GHG (synthetic fertilizers)/cereals produced; viii)
Wood, defined as GHG (carbon loss from harvest)/roundwood produced. Data Source: (FAOSTAT,
2013).
Theimplementationofmitigationmeasurescancontributetofurtherdecreaseemissionintensities
ofAFOLUcommodities(Figure11.16;whichshowschangesofemissionsintensitieswhena
commodityspecificmixofmitigationmeasuresisapplied).Forcerealproduction,mitigation
measuresconsideredincludeimprovedcroplandagronomy,nutrientandfertilizermanagement,
tillageandresiduemanagement,andtheestablishmentofagroforestrysystems.Improvedrice
managementpracticeswereconsideredforpaddyricecultivation.Mitigationmeasuresappliedin
thelivestocksectorincludeimprovedfeedinganddietaryadditives.Countriescanimproveemission
intensitiesofAFOLUcommoditiesthroughincreasingproductionatthesamelevelofinput,the
implementationofmitigationmeasures,oracombinationofboth.Insomeregions,increasing
currentyieldsisstillanoptionwithasignificantpotentialtoimproveemissionintensitiesof
agriculturalproduction.Foleyetal.(2011)analyzedcurrentandpotentialyieldsthatcouldbe
achievedfor16staplecropsusingavailableagriculturalpracticesandtechnologiesandidentified
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largeyieldgaps,especiallyacrossmanypartsofAfrica,LatinAmerica,andEasternEurope.Better
cropmanagementpracticescanhelptocloseyieldgapsandimproveemissionintensitiesif
measuresareselectedthatalsohaveamitigationpotential.

Figure 11.16. Potential changes of emission intensities of major AFOLU commodities through
implementation of commodity-specific mitigation measures (left panel) and related mitigation costs
(right panel). Commodities and GHG emission sources are defined as in Figure 11.15, except for
roundwood, expressed as the amount of carbon sequestered per unit roundwood from reforestation
and afforestation within dedicated plantation cycles. Agricultural emission intensities represent
regional averages, calculated based on 20002010 data (FAOSTAT, 2013) for selected commodities.
Data on mitigation potentials and costs of measures are calculated using the mean values reported by
(Smith et al., 2008) and the maximum and minimum are defined by the highest and lowest values for
four climate zones for cereals and rice, or five geographical regions for milk and cattle meat. Emission
intensities and mitigation potentials of roundwood production are calculated using data from Sathaye
et al. (2005; 2006), FAO (2006), and IPCC (2006); maximum and minimum values are defined by the
highest and lowest values for 10 geographical regions. The right panel shows the mitigation costs (in
USD/tCO2eq) of commodity-specific mitigation measures (1:3 quartile range).
MitigationpotentialsandcostsdifferlargelybetweenAFOLUcommodities(Figure11.16).While
averageabatementcostsarelowforroundwoodproductionundertheassumptionofperpetual
rotation,costsofmitigationoptionsappliedinmeatanddairyproductionsystemshaveawiderange
(1:3quartilerange:58856USD/tCO2eq).Calculationsofemissionintensitiesarebasedonthe
conservativeassumptionthatproductionlevelsstaythesameaftertheapplicationofthemitigation
option.However,somemitigationoptionscanincreaseproduction.Thiswouldnotonlyimprove
foodsecuritybutcouldalsoincreasethecosteffectivenessofmitigationactionsintheagricultural
sector.
Agricultureandforestryrelatedmitigationcouldcosteffectivelycontributetotransformation
pathwaysassociatedwithlongrunclimatechangemanagement(Sections11.9and6.3.5).
TransformationpathwaymodellingincludesLUC,aswellaslandmanagementoptionsthatreduce
emissionsintensitiesandincreasesequestrationintensities.However,theresultingtransformation
pathwayemissions(sequestration)intensitiesarenotcomparabletothosediscussedhere.
Transformationpathwaysaretheresultofintegratedmodellingandtheresultingintensitiesarethe
netresultofmanyeffects.Theintensitiescapturemitigationtechnologyadoption,butalsochanges
inlevelsofproduction,landcoverchange,mitigationtechnologycompetition,andmodelspecific
definitionsforsectors/regions/andassignedemissionsinventories.Mitigationtechnology
competition,inparticular,canleadtointensification(andincreasesinagriculturalemissions
intensities)thatsupportcosteffectiveadoptionofothermitigationstrategies,suchasafforestation
orbioenergy(Sections11.9and6.3.5).
11.6.3 RegionaldisaggregationofglobalcostsandpotentialsintheAFOLUsector
Figure11.17showstheeconomicallyviablemitigationopportunitiesinAFOLUin2030byregionand
bymainmitigationoptionatcarbonpricesofupto20,50,and100USD/tCO2eq.Thecompositionof
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theagriculturalmitigationportfoliovariesgreatlywiththecarbonprice(Smith,2012),withlowcost
optionssuchascroplandmanagementbeingfavouredatlowcarbonprices,buthighercostoptions
suchasrestorationofcultivatedorganicsoilsbeingmorecosteffectiveathigherprices.Figure11.17
alsorevealssomeverylargedifferencesinmitigationpotential,anddifferentrankingofmost
effectiveoptions,betweenregions.AcrossallAFOLUoptions,Asiahasthelargestmitigation
potential,withthelargestmitigationinbothforestryandagriculture,followedbyLAM,OECD1990,
MAF,andEIT.

Figure 11.17. Economic mitigation potentials in the AFOLU sector by region. Agriculture values are
from Smith et al. (2007). Forestry values are from Nabuurs et al. (2007). For forestry, 20 USD values
correspond to low, and 100 USD values correspond to high values from Nabuurs et al. (2007).
Values of 50 USD represent the mean of the high and low values from Nabuurs et al. (2007).
Differencesbetweenthemosteffectiveforestryoptionsineachregion(Figure11.18)areparticularly
striking,withreduceddeforestationdominatingtheforestrymitigationpotentialLAMandMAF,but
verylittlepotentialinOECD1990andEIT.Forestmanagement,followedbyafforestation,dominate
inOECD1990,EIT,andAsia(Figure11.18).Amongagriculturaloptions,amongthemoststrikingof
regionaldifferencesarethericemanagementpracticesforwhichalmostalloftheglobalpotentialis
inAsia,andthelargepotentialforrestorationoforganicsoilsalsoinAsia(duetocultivated
SoutheastAsianpeats),andOECD1990(duetocultivatednorthernpeatlands;Figure11.18).
Figure 11.18. Regional differences in forestry options, shown as a proportion of total potential
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available in forestry in each region. Global forestry activities (annual amount sequestered or
emissions avoided above the baseline for forest management, reduced deforestation and
afforestation), at carbon prices up to 100 USD/tCO2 are aggregated to regions from results from three
models of global forestry and land use: the Global Timber Model (GTM; Sohngen and Sedjo, 2006),
the Generalized Comprehensive Mitigation Assessment Process (Sathaye et al., 2006), and the
Dynamic Integrated Model of Forestry and Alternative Land Use (Bentez et al., 2007).
11.7 Cobenefits,risks,andspillovers
ImplementationofAFOLUmitigationmeasures(Section11.3)willresultinarangeofoutcomes
beyondchangesinGHGbalanceswithrespecttoinstitutional,economic,social,andenvironmental
objectives.Totheextenttheseeffectsarepositive,theycanbedeemedcobenefits;ifadverseand
uncertain,theyimplyrisks.9Aglobalassessmentofthecobenefitsandadversesideeffectsof
AFOLUmitigationmeasuresischallengingforanumberofreasons.First,cobenefitsandadverse
sideeffectsdependonthedevelopmentcontextandthescaleoftheintervention(size),i.e.,
implementingthesameAFOLUmitigationmeasureintwodifferentareas(differentcountriesor
differentregionswithinacountry)canhavedifferentsocioeconomic,institutional,or
environmentaleffects (Forneretal.,2006;KohandGhazoul,2008;Trabuccoetal.,2008;Zomeret
al.,2008;AlvesFincoandDoppler,2010;Aligetal.,2010,p.201;Colfer,2011;Davisetal.,2013;
Muysetal.,2013;AlbersandRobinson,2013).Thustheeffectsaresitespecificandgeneralizations
aredifficult.Second,theseeffectsdonotnecessarilyoverlapgeographically,socially,oroverthe
sametimescales(Section11.4.5).Third,thereisnogeneralagreementonattributionofcobenefits
andadversesideeffectstospecificAFOLUmitigationmeasures;andfourththereareno
standardizedmetricsforquantifyingmanyoftheseeffects.Modellingframeworksarebeing
developedthatallowanintegratedassessmentofmultipleoutcomesatlandscape(Bryantetal.,
2011),project(Townsendetal.,2012),andsmaller(Smithetal.,2013a)scales.Table11.9presents
anoverviewofthepotentialeffectsfromAFOLUmitigationmeasures,whilethetextpresentsthe
mostrelevantcobenefitsandpotentialadversesideeffectsfromtherecentliterature.
MaximizingcobenefitsofAFOLUmitigationmeasurescanincreaseefficiencyinachievingthe
objectivesofotherinternationalagreements,includingtheUnitedNationsConventiontoCombat
Desertification(UNCCD,2011),ortheConventiononBiologicalDiversity(CBD),andmitigation
actionsmayalsocontributetoabroaderglobalsustainabilityagenda(Harveyetal.,2010;Gardneret
al.,2012;seeChapter4).Inmanycases,implementationoftheseagendasislimitedbycapital,and
mitigationmayprovideanewsourceoffinance(Tubielloetal.,2009).
Box 11.6 Challenges for mitigation in developing countries in the AFOLU sector
MitigationchallengesrelatedtotheAFOLUsector
ThecontributionofdevelopingcountriestofutureGHGemissionsisexpectedtobeverysignificant
duetoprojectedincreasesinfoodproductionby2030drivingshorttermlandconversioninthese
countries.MitigationeffortsintheAFOLUsectorrelymainlyonreductionofGHGemissionsandan
increaseincarbonsequestration(Table11.2).Potentialactivitiesincludereducingdeforestation,
increasingforestcover,agroforestry,agricultureandlivestockmanagement,andproductionof
sustainablerenewableenergy(Sathayeetal.,2005;Smithetal.,2013b).Althoughagricultureand
forestryareimportantsectorsforGHGabatement(Section11.2.3),itislikelythattechnologyalone
willnotbesufficienttodeliverthenecessarytransitionstoalowGHGfuture(Aligetal.,2010;
Section11.3.2).Otherbarriersincludeaccesstomarketandcredits,technicalcapacitiesto
9
Cobenefitsandadversesideeffectsdescribeeffectsinnonmonetaryunitswithoutyetevaluatingthenet
effectonoverallsocialwelfare.Pleaserefertotherespectivesectionsintheframingchaptersaswellastothe
glossaryinAnnexIforconceptsanddefinitionsparticularly2.4,3.6.3,and4.8.
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implementmitigationoptions,includingaccuratereportingofemissionlevelsandemissionfactors
basedonactivitydata,andinstitutionalframeworksandregulations(CorberaandSchroeder,2011;
Mbowetal.,2012;Sections11.7;11.8).Additionally,thediversityofcircumstancesamong
developingcountriesmakesitdifficulttoestablishthemodelledrelationshipsbetweenGDPandCO2
emissionspercapitafoundbyusingtheKayaidentity.Thispartlyarisesfromthewidegapbetween
ruralandurbancommunities,andthedifferenceinlivelihoods(e.g.,theuseoffuelwood,farming
practicesinvariousagroecologicalconditions,dietarypreferenceswitharisingmiddleclassin
developingcountries,developmentofinfrastructure,andbehaviouralchange,etc.;Lambinand
Meyfroidt,2011).Also,somemitigationpathwaysraisetheissueofnonpermanenceandleakage
thatcanleadtothetransferactivitiestononprotectedareas,whichmaythreatenconservation
areasincountrieswithlowcapacities(Lippkeetal.,2003;JacksonandBaker,2010;Section11.3.2).
Criticalissuestoaddressarethecobenefitsandadversesideeffectsassociatedwithchanged
agriculturalproduction,thenecessarylinkbetweenmitigationandadaptation,andhowtomanage
incentivesforasubstantialGHGabatementinitiativewithoutcompromisingfoodsecurity(Smith
andWollenberg,2012;Sections11.5;11.7).Thechallengeistostrikeabalancebetweenemissions
reductions/adaptationanddevelopment/povertyalleviationpriorities,ortofindpoliciesthatco
deliver.Mitigationpathwaysindevelopingcountriesshouldaddressthedualneedformitigation
andadaptationthroughclearguidelinestomanagemultipleoptions(Section11.5.4).Prerequisites
forthesuccessfulimplementationofAFOLUmitigationprojectsareensuringthat(a)communities
arefullyengagedinimplementingmitigationstrategies,(b)anynewstrategyisconsistentwith
ongoingpoliciesorprogrammes,and(c)aprioriconsentofsmallholdersisgiven.Extraeffortis
requiredtoaddressequityissuesincludinggender,challenges,andprospects(Mbowetal.,2012).
Mitigationchallengesrelatedtothebioenergysector
Bioenergyhasasignificantmitigationpotential,providedthattheresourcesaredeveloped
sustainablyandthatbioenergysystemsareefficient(Chumetal.,2011;Section11.9.1).Bioenergy
productioncanbeintegratedwithfoodproductionindevelopingcountries,e.g.,throughsuitable
croprotationschemes,oruseofbyproductsandresidues(Berndesetal.,2013).Ifimplemented
sustainablythiscanresultinhigherfoodandenergyoutcomesandhencereducelanduse
competition.Somebioenergyoptionsindevelopingcountriesincludeperennialcroppingsystems,
useofbiomassresiduesandwastes,andadvancedconversionsystems(Beringeretal.,2011;Popp
etal.,2011;Box7.1).Agriculturalandforestryresiduescanprovidelowcarbonandlowcost
feedstockforbioenergy.Biomassfromcellulosicbioenergycropsfeaturesubstantiallyinfuture
energysystems,especiallyintheframeworkofglobalclimatepolicythataimsatstabilizingCO2
concentrationatlowlevels(Poppetal.,2011;Section11.13).Thelargescaleuseofbioenergyis
controversialinthecontextofdevelopingcountriesbecauseoftheriskofreducingcarbonstocks
andreleasingcarbontotheatmosphere(BailisandMcCarthy,2011),threatstofoodsecurityin
Africa(Mbow,2010),andthreatstobiodiversityviatheconversionofforeststobiofuel(e.g.,palm
oil)plantations.Severalstudiesunderlinetheinconsistencybetweentheneedforbioenergyandthe
requirementfor,e.g.,Africa,touseitsproductivelandsforsustainablefoodproduction(Cotulaet
al.,2009).Efficientbiomassproductionforbioenergyrequiresarangeofsustainabilityrequirements
tosafeguardfoodproduction,biodiversity,andterrestrialcarbonstorage.
11.7.1 Socioeconomiceffects
AFOLUmitigationmeasurescanaffectinstitutionsandlivingconditionsofthevarioussocialgroups
involved.ThissectionincludespotentialeffectsofAFOLUmitigationmeasuresonthreedimensions
ofsustainabledevelopment:institutional,social,andeconomic(Section11.4.5).
AFOLUmitigationmeasuresmayhaveimpactsonlandtenureandlanduserightsforseveralsocial
groupsincludingindigenouspeoples,localcommunitiesandothersocialgroups,dependanton
naturalassets.CobenefitsfromAFOLUmitigationmeasurescanbeclarificationoflandtenureand
harmonizationofrights,whileadversesideeffectscanbelackofrecognitionofcustomaryrights,
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lossoftenureorpossessionrights,andevendisplacementofsocialgroups(Sunderlinetal.,2005;
ChhatreandAgrawal,2009;Blometal.,2010;Sikoretal.,2010;Robinsonetal.,2011;Rosemary,
2011;Larson,2011;RosendalandAndresen,2011).Whetheranimpactonlandtenureanduse
rightsispositiveornegativedependsupontwofactors:(a)theinstitutionsregulatinglandtenure
andlanduserights(e.g.,laws,policies),and(b)thelevelofenforcementbysuchinstitutions
(CorberaandBrown,2008;Araujoetal.,2009;Rosemary,2011;Larsonetal.,2013;Albersand
Robinson,2013).Moreresearchisneededonspecifictenureforms(e.g.,individualproperty,state
ownershiporcommunityrights),andonthespecificeffectsfromtenureandrightsoptions,on
enablingAFOLUmitigationmeasuresandcobenefitsindifferentregionsunderspecific
circumstances(Sunderlinetal.,2005;Katila,2008;ChhatreandAgrawal,2009;Blometal.,2010;
Sikoretal.,2010;Robinsonetal.,2011;Rosemary,2011;Larson,2011;RosendalandAndresen,
2011).
AFOLUmitigationmeasurescansupportenforcementofsectoralpolicies(e.g.,conservationpolicies)
aswellascrosssectoralcoordination(e.g.,facilitatingalandscapeviewforpoliciesinthe
agriculture,energy,andforestrysectors(Brockhausetal.,2013).However,AFOLUmitigation
activitiescanalsointroduceorreduceclasheswithexistingpoliciesinothersectors(e.g.,ifa
conservationpolicycoversaforestarea,whereagriculturallandispromotedbyanotherpolicy
(Madleneretal.,2006;HalsnsandVerhagen,2007;Smithetal.,2007;Beachetal.,2009;Aliget
al.,2010;JacksonandBaker,2010;DeFriesandRosenzweig,2010;PettenellaandBrotto,2011;
Section11.10).
AnareaofincreasingconcernsinceAR4isthepotentialimpactofAFOLUmitigationmeasureson
foodsecurity.Effortstoreducehungerandmalnutritionwillincreaseindividualfooddemandin
manydevelopingcountries,andpopulationgrowthwillincreasethenumberofindividualsrequiring
secureandnutritionallysufficientfoodproduction.Thus,anetincreaseinfoodproductionisan
essentialcomponentforsecuringsustainabledevelopment(Ericksenetal.,2009;FAO,WFP,and
IFAD,2012).AFOLUmitigationmeasureslinkedtoincreasesinfoodproduction(e.g.,agroforestry,
intensificationofagriculturalproduction,orintegratedsystems)canincreasefoodavailabilityand
accessespeciallyatthelocallevel,whileothermeasures(e.g.,forestorenergycropplantations)can
reducefoodproductionatleastlocally(Foleyetal.,2005;McMichaeletal.,2007;Pretty,2008;
Godfrayetal.,2010;JacksonandBaker,2010;GrahamRowe,2011;Jefferyetal.,2011).
Regardinghumanhealthreducedemissionsfromagricultureandforestrymayalsoimproveair,soil,
andwaterquality(Smithetal.,2013a),therebyindirectlyprovidingbenefitstohumanhealthand
wellbeing.Demandsidemeasuresaimedatreducingtheproportionoflivestockproductsinhuman
dietsthatarehighinanimalproductsarealsoassociatedwithmultiplehealthbenefits(McMichael
etal.,2007;Stehfestetal.,2009;Marlowetal.,2009).AFOLUmitigationmeasures,particularlyin
thelivestocksector,canhaveanimpactonanimalwelfare(Sundrum,2001;LundandAlgers,2003;
Keelingetal.,2011;Kehlbacheretal.,2012;KoknarogluandAkunal,2013).
AmajorareaofconcernisrelatedtothepotentialimpactsofAFOLUmitigationmeasuresonequity
(Sections3.3;4.2;4.7;4.8).Dependingontheactualandperceiveddistributionofsocioeconomic
benefits,responsibilities(burdensharing),aswelltheaccesstodecisionmaking,financing
mechanisms,andtechnology,AFOLUmitigationmeasurescanpromoteinterandintragenerational
equity(DiGregorioetal.,2013).Conversely,dependingonthepolicyinstrumentsandthe
implementationschemesofthesemitigationmeasures,theycanincreaseinequityandland
conflicts,ormarginalizesmallscalefarm/forestownersorusers(Robinsonetal.,2011;Kiptotetal.,
2012;Huettner,2012;MattooandSubramanian,2012).Potentialimpactsonequityandbenefit
sharingmechanismsariseforAFOLUactivitiesusingforestrymeasuresindevelopingcountries
includingconservation,restoration,reduceddeforestationanddegradation,aswellassustainable
managementandafforestation/reforestation(CombesMoteletal.,2009;Cattaneoetal.,2010;
Rosemary,2011).
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Largescalelandacquisition(oftenreferredtoaslandgrabbing)relatedtothepromotionofAFOLU
mitigationmeasures(especiallyforproductionofbioenergycrops)anditslinkstosustainable
developmentingeneral,andequityinparticular,areemergingissuesintheliterature(Cotulaetal.,
2009;ScheidelandSorman,2012;Mwakaje,2012;Messerlietal.,2013;Germanetal.,2013).
Inmanycases,theimplementationofagriculturalandforestrysystemswithpositiveimpacts
mitigatingclimatechangearelimitedbycapital,andcarbonpaymentsorcompensationmechanisms
mayprovideanewsourceoffinance(Tubielloetal.,2009).Forinstance,insomecases,mitigation
paymentscanhelptomakeproductionofnontimberforestproducts(NTFP)economicallyviable,
furtherdiversifyingincomeatthelocallevel(Singh,2008).However,dependingontheaccessibility
ofthefinancingmechanisms(payments,compensation,orother)economicbenefitscanbecome
concentrated,marginalizingmanylocalstakeholders(CombesMoteletal.,2009;Aligetal.,2010;
Asanteetal.,2011;AsanteandArmstrong,2012;Section11.8).Therealizationofeconomicco
benefitsisrelatedtothedesignofthespecificmechanismsanddependsuponthreemainvariables:
(a)theamountandcoverageofthesepayments,(b)therecipientofthepayments,and(c)timingof
payments(exanteorexpost;(CorberaandBrown,2008;Skutschetal.,2011).Further
considerationsonfinancialmechanismsandcarbonpayments,bothwithinandoutsideUNFCCC
agreements,aredescribedinSection11.10.
FinancialflowssupportingAFOLUmitigationmeasures(e.g.,thoseresultingfromtheREDD+)can
havepositiveeffectsonconservingbiodiversity,butcouldeventuallycreateconflictswith
conservationofbiodiversityhotspots,whentheirrespectivecarbonstocksarelow(Gardneretal.,
2012;Section11.10).Someauthorsproposethatcarbonpaymentscanbecomplementedwith
biodiversitypaymentsasanoptionforreducingtradeoffswithbiodiversityconservation(Phelpset
al.,2010a).Bundlingofecosystemservicepayments,andlinkstocarbonpayments,isanemerging
areaofresearch(DealandWhite,2012).
11.7.2 Environmentaleffects
AvailabilityoflandandlandcompetitioncanbeaffectedbyAFOLUmitigationmeasures.Different
stakeholdersmayhavedifferentviewsonwhatlandisavailable,andwhenconsideringseveral
AFOLUmitigationmeasuresforthesamearea,therecanbedifferentviewsontheimportanceofthe
goodsandecosystemservicesprovidedbytheland,e.g.,someAFOLUmeasurescanincreasefood
productionbutreducewateravailabilityorotherenvironmentalservices.Thusdecisionmakersneed
tobeawareofpotentialsitespecifictradeoffswithinthesector.Afurtherpotentialadverseside
effectisthatofincreasinglandrentsandfoodpricesduetoareductioninlandavailabilityfor
agricultureindevelopingcountries(Muller,2009;Smithetal.,2010,2013b;Rathmannetal.,2010;
Godfrayetal.,2010;deVriesanddeBoer,2010;HarveyandPilgrim,2011;Amigunetal.,2011;
Janzen,2011;Cotula,2012;ScheidelandSorman,2012;Haberletal.,2013a).
AFOLUmitigationoptionscanpromoteconservationofbiologicaldiversity(Smithetal.,2013a)both
byreducingdeforestation(Chhatreetal.,2012;Murdiyarsoetal.,2012;PutzandRomero,2012;
VisserenHamakersetal.,2012),andbyusingreforestation/afforestationtorestorebiodiverse
communitiesonpreviouslydevelopedfarmland(Harperetal.,2007).However,promotinglanduse
changes(e.g.,throughplantingmonoculturesonbiodiversityhotspots)canhaveadverseside
effects,reducingbiodiversity(KohandWilcove,2008;Beringeretal.,2011;PanditandGrumbine,
2012;Hertwich,2012;Gardneretal.,2012;Zivetal.,2012).
Inadditiontopotentialclimateimpacts,landuseintensitydrivesthethreemainNlosspathways
(nitrateleaching,denitrification,andammoniavolatilization)andtypicalNbalancesforeachland
useindicatethattotalNlossesalsoincreasewithincreasinglanduseintensity(Stevensonetal.,
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2010).LeakagesfromtheNcyclecancauseair(e.g.,ammonia(NH3+),nitrogenoxides(NOx))10,soil
nitrate(NO3)andwaterpollution(e.g.,eutrophication),andagriculturalintensificationcanleadtoa
varietyofotheradverseenvironmentalimpacts(Smithetal.,2013a).Combinedstrategies(e.g.,
diversifiedcroprotationsandorganicNsources)orsingleprocessstrategies(e.g.,reducedNrates,
nitrificationinhibitors,andchangingchemicalformsoffertilizer)canreduceNlosses(Bamboetal.,
2009;GardnerandDrinkwater,2009).Integratedsystemsmaybeanalternativeapproachtoreduce
leaching(Section11.10).
AFOLUmitigationmeasurescanhaveeitherpositiveornegativeimpactsonwaterresources,with
responsesdependantonthemitigationmeasureused,siteconditions(e.g.,soilthicknessandslope,
hydrologicalsetting,climate;Yuetal.,2013)andhowtheparticularmitigationmeasureismanaged.
Therearetwomaincomponents:wateryieldandwaterquality.Wateryieldscanbemanipulated
withforestmanagement,throughafforestation,reforestation,forestthinning,ordeforestation.In
general,reductioninwateryieldsinafforestation/reforestationprojectshasbeenreportedinboth
groundwaterorsurfacecatchments(Jacksonetal.,2005),orwhereirrigationwaterisusedto
producebioenergycrops.Forwatersupplysecurity,itisimportanttoconsidertherelativeyield
reductionandthiscanhavesevereconsequencesindryregionswithinherentwatershortages
(Wangetal.,2011c).Wherethereisawaterimbalance,however,thisadditionalwaterusecanbe
beneficialbyreducingtheeffluxofsalts(Jacksonetal.,2005).Anotheraspectofwateryieldisthe
reductionoffloodpeaks,andalsoprolongedperiodsofwaterflow,becausedischargeisstabilized
(Jacksonetal.,2005),howeverlowflowscanbereducedbecauseofincreasedforestwateruse.
WaterqualitycanbeaffectedbyAFOLUinseveralways.Forexample,minimumtillagesystemshave
beenreportedtoreducewatererosionandthussedimentationofwatercourses(Lal,2011).
Deforestationiswellknowntoincreaseerosionandthuseffluxofsilt;avoidingdeforestationwill
preventthis.Inothersituations,watershedscalereforestationcanresultintherestorationofwater
quality(e.g.,(Townsendetal.,2012).Furthermore,strategicplacementoftreebeltsinlands
affectedbydrylandsalinitycanremediatetheaffectedlandsbyloweringthewatertable(Robinson
etal.,2004).VarioustypesofAFOLUmitigationcanresultindegradationofwatersourcesthrough
thelossesofpesticidesandnutrientstowater(Smithetal.,2013a).
10
PleaseseeSection7.9.2andWGIISection11.9foradiscussionofhealtheffectsrelatedtoairpollution.
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Table 11.9 Summary of potential co-benefits (green arrows) and adverse side-effects (orange arrows) from AFOLU mitigation measures; arrows pointing
up/down denote positive/negative effect on the respective issue. These effects depend on the specific context (including bio-physical, institutional, and socio-
economic aspects) as well as on the scale of implementation. For an assessment of macroeconomic, cross-sectoral effects associated with mitigation policies
(e.g., on energy prices, consumption, growth, and trade), see Sections 3.9, 6.3.6, 13.2.2.3, and 14.4.2. Note: Co-benefits/adverse side-effects of bioenergy
are discussed in Section 11.13.
Issue Potentialcobenefitoradversesideeffect Scale AFOLUmitigationmeasure
Landtenureanduse Improving()ordiminishing()tenureanduserightsforlocalcommunitiesand Localto Forestry(4,5,6,8,9,12,20)
rights indigenouspeoples,includingharmonizationoflandtenureanduseregimes(e.g.,with national
customaryrights)
Sectoralpolicies Promoting()orcontradicting()theenforcementofsectoral(forestand/or National Forestry(2,5,6,9,20);landbasedagriculture(7,11,
Institutional
agriculture)policies 20)
Crosssectoralpolicies Crosssectoralcoordination()orclashes()betweenforestry,agriculture,energy, Localto Forestry(7,20);agriculture(7,11,20)
and/orminingpolicies national
Participative Creation/useofparticipativemechanisms()fordecisionmakingregardingland Localto Forestry(4,5,6,8,9,14,20);agriculture(20,32);
mechanisms management(includingparticipationofvarioussocialgroups,e.g.,indigenouspeoples national integratedsystems(20,34)
orlocalcommunities)
Benefitsharing Creation/useofbenefitssharingmechanisms()fromAFOLUmitigationmeasures Localto Forestry(4,5,6,8,20)
mechanisms national
Foodsecurity Increase()ordecrease()onfoodavailabilityandaccess Localto Forestry(18,19);agriculture(7,15,18,19,23,28,
national 30);livestock(2,3,19,35,36);integratedsystems
(18,19);biochar(17,26)
Local/traditional Recognition()ordenial()ofindigenousandlocalknowledgeinmanaging Local/sub Forestry(4,5,6,8,20);agriculture(20,28);
knowledge (forest/agricultural)land national integratedsystems(2);livestock(2,3,35);biochar(2)
Animalwelfare Changesinperceivedormeasuredanimalwelfare(perceivedduetoculturalvaluesor Localto Livestock(2,31,35,37,38)
Social
measured,e.g.,throughamountofstresshormones) national
Culturalvalues Respectandvalueculturalhabitatandtraditions(),reduce(),orincrease() Localto Forestry(4,5,6,9,20)
existingconflictsorsocialdiscomfort(4,5,6,20,8) trans
boundary
Humanhealth Impactsonhealthduetodietarychanges,especiallyinsocietieswithahigh Localto Changesindemandpatterns(31,36)
consumptionofanimalprotein() global
Equity Promote()ornot()equalaccesstoland,decisionmaking,valuechain,andmarkets Localto Forestry(4,5,6,8,9,10,20);agriculture(11,23,32)
aswellastoknowledgeandbenefitsharingmechanisms global
Income Increase()ordecrease()inincome.Thereareconcernsregardingincome Local Forestry(6,7,8,16,20,21,22);agriculture(16,19,
distribution() 20,23,28);livestock(2,3);integratedsystems(7,
20);biochar(24);changesindemandpatterns(2)
Employment Employmentcreation()orreductionofemployment(especiallyforsmallfarmersor Local Forestry(8,20);agriculture(20,23);livestock(2,3);
Economic
localcommunities)() integratedsystems(7,20)
Financingmechanisms Access()orlackofaccess()tonewfinancingschemes Localto Forestry(6,8,16,20);agriculture(16,20);livestock
global (2,3)
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Economicactivity Diversificationandincreaseineconomicactivity()whileconcernsonequity() Local Forestry(6,7,8,20);landbasedagriculture(16,19,

20,23,28);livestock(2,3)
Landavailability Competitionbetweenlandusesandriskofactivityorcommunitydisplacement() Localto Forestryandlandbasedagriculture(5,6,15,18,20,
trans 29,30);livestock(2,3,29,40)
boundary
Biodiversity Monoculturescanreducebiodiversity().Ecologicalrestorationincreasesbiodiversity Localto Forestry(1,19,20,27);onconservationandforest
andecosystemservices()by44and25%respectively(28).Conservation,forest trans management(1,19,21,27,30);agricultureand
management,andintegratedsystemscankeepbiodiversity()and/orslow boundary integratedsystems(15,19,20,28,30)
desertification()
Albedo Positiveimpacts()onalbedoandevaporationandinteractionswithozone Localto SeeSection11.5
global
Environmental
NandPcycles ImpactsonNandPcyclesinwater(/)especiallyfrommonoculturesorlarge Localto Agriculture(19,23,30,35);livestock(2,3,30)

agriculturalareas trans
boundary
Waterresources Monoculturesand/orshortrotationscanhavenegativeimpactsonwateravailability Localto Forestry(1,19,20,27);landbasedagriculture(30,
().Potentialwaterdepletionduetoirrigation().Somemanagementpracticescan trans 44);integratedsystems(2,30,44)
supportregulationofthehydrologicalcycleandprotectionofwatersheds() boundary
Soil Soilconservation()andimprovementofsoilqualityandfertility().Reductionof Local Forestry(44,45);landbasedagriculture(13,19,23,
erosion.Positiveornegativecarbonmineralizationprimingeffect(/) 28,30);integratedsystemsbiochar(39,40)
Newproducts Increase()ordecrease()onfibreavailabilityaswellasnontimber/nonwood Localto Forestry(18,19,41,42);agriculture(7,15,18,19,
productsoutput national 23,28,30);integratedsystems(18,19)
Ecosystemresilience Increase()orreduction()ofresilience,reductionofdisasterrisks() Localto Forestry,integratedsystems(11,33;seeSection
trans 11.5)
boundary
Infrastructure Increase()ordecrease()inavailabilityofandaccesstoinfrastructure.Competition Local Agriculture(20,46,47)
Technology
forinfrastructureforagriculture(),canincreasesocialconflicts
Technologyinnovation Promote()ordelay()technologydevelopmentandtransfer Localto Forestry(7,13,25);agriculture(23);livestock(2,3)
andtransfer global
Technology Canfacilitateacceptanceofsustainabletechnologies() Localto Forestry(7,13,25);livestock(2,3,35)
Acceptance national
Notes: AFOLU mitigation measures are grouped following the structure given in Table 11.2
Sources:1Trabucco et al., 2008; 2Steinfeld et al., 2010; 3Gerber et al., 2010; 4Sikor et al., 2010; 5Rosemary, 2011; 6Pettenella and Brotto, 2011; 7Jackson and Baker, 2010;
8
Corbera and Schroeder, 2011; 9Colfer, 2011; 10Blom et al., 2010; 11Halsns and Verhagen, 2007; 12Larson, 2011; 13Lichtfouse et al., 2009; 14Thompson et al., 2011;
15
Graham-Rowe, 2011; 16Tubiello et al., 2009; 17Barrow, 2012; 18Godfray et al., 2010; 19Foley et al., 2005 ; 20Madlener et al., 2006; 21Strassburg et al., 2012; 22Canadell and
23 24 25 26 27 28 29
Raupach, 2008; Pretty, 2008; Galinato et al., 2011; Macauley and Sedjo, 2011; Jeffery et al., 2011; Benayas et al., 2009; Foley et al., 2011; Haberl et al., 2013;
30 31 32 33 34 35 36
Smith et al., 2013; Stehfest et al., 2009; Chhatre et al., 2012; Seppl et al., 2009; Murdiyarso et al., 2012; de Boer et al., 2011; McMichael et al., 2007;
37
Koknaroglu and Akunal, 2013; 38Kehlbacher et al., 2012; 39Zimmerman et al., 2011; 40Luo et al., 2011; 41Mirle, 2012; 42Albers and Robinson, 2013; 43Smith et al., 2013a;
44
Chatterjee and Lal, 2009; 45Smith, 2008; 46Ziv et al., 2012; 47Beringer et al., 2011; 48Douglas et al., 2009
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AFOLUmitigationmeasurescanhaveseveralimpactsonsoil.Increasingormaintainingcarbon
stocksinlivingbiomass(e.g.,throughforestoragroforestrysystems)willreducewinderosionby
actingaswindbreaksandmayincreasecropproduction;andreforestation,conservation,forest
management,agriculturalsystems,orbioenergysystemscanbeusedtorestoredegradedor
abandonedland(Smithetal.,2008;Stickleretal.,2009;ChatterjeeandLal,2009;Wickeetal.,
2011b;Sochackietal.,2012).Silvopastoralsystemscanhelptoreverselanddegradationwhile
providingfood(Steinfeldetal.,2008,2010;Janzen,2011).Dependingonthesoiltype,production
temperatureregimes,thespecificplacementandthefeedstocktreespecies,biocharcanhave
positiveornegativecarbonmineralizationprimingeffectsovertime(Zimmermanetal.,2011;Luoet
al.,2011).
AFOLUmitigationoptionscanpromoteinnovation,andmanytechnologicalsupplysidemitigation
optionsoutlinedinSection11.3alsoincreaseagriculturalandsilviculturalefficiency.Atanygiven
levelofdemandforagriculturalproducts,intensificationincreasesoutputperunitareaandwould
therefore,ifallelsewereequal,allowthereductioninfarmlandarea,whichwouldinturnfreeland
forCsequestrationand/orbioenergyproduction(Section11.4).Forexample,arecentstudy
calculatedpotentiallylargeGHGreductionsfromglobalagriculturalintensificationbycomparingthe
pasttrajectoryofagriculture(withsubstantialyieldimprovements),withahypotheticaltrajectory
withconstanttechnology(Burneyetal.,2010).However,inrealworldsituationsincreasesinyield
mayresultinfeedbackssuchasincreasedconsumption(reboundeffects;seeSection11.4;Lambin
andMeyfroidt,2011;Erb,2012).
11.7.3 Publicperception
Mitigationmeasuresthatsupportsustainabledevelopmentarelikelytobeviewedpositivelyin
termsofpublicperception,butalargescaledrivetowardsmitigationwithoutinclusionofkey
stakeholdercommunitiesinvolvedwouldlikelynotbegreetedfavourably(SmithandWollenberg,
2012).However,thereareconcernsaboutcompetitionbetweenfoodandAFOLUoutcomes,either
becauseofanincreasinguseoflandforbiofuelplantations(Fargioneetal.,2008;AlvesFincoand
Doppler,2010),orafforestation/reforestation(Mitchelletal.,2012),orbyblockingthe
transformationofforestlandintoagriculturalland(HarveyandPilgrim,2011).
Further,lackofclarityregardingthearchitectureofthefutureinternationalclimateregimeandthe
roleofAFOLUmitigationmeasuresisperceivedasapotentialthreatforlongtermplanningand
longterminvestments(Streck,2012;VisserenHamakersetal.,2012).Certaintechnologies,suchas
animalfeedadditivesandgeneticallymodifiedorganismsarebannedinsomejurisdictionsdueto
perceivedhealthand/orenvironmentalrisks.Publicperceptionisoftenasimportantasscientific
evidenceofhazard/riskinconsideringgovernmentpolicyregardingsuchtechnologies(RoyalSociety,
2009;SmithandWollenberg,2012).
11.7.4 Spillovers
Emergingknowledgeontheimportanceofecosystemsservicesasameansforaddressingclimate
changemitigationandadaptationhavebroughtattentiontotheroleofecosystemmanagementfor
achievingseveraldevelopmentgoals,beyondclimatechangeadaptationandmitigation.This
knowledgehasenhancedthecreationofecosystemmarkets(Section11.10).Insomejurisdictions
ecosystemmarketsaredeveloping(MEA,2005;Engeletal.,2008;DealandWhite,2012;Wnscher
andEngel,2012)andtheseallowvaluationofvariouscomponentsoflandusechanges,inadditionto
mitigation(MayrandandPaquin,2004;Barbier,2007).Differentapproachesareused;insomecases
theindividualcomponents(bothcobenefitsandadversesideeffects)areconsideredsingly
(bundled),inothersituationstheyareconsideredtogether(stacked)(DealandWhite,2012).
Ecosystemmarketapproachescanserveasaframeworktoassessthebenefitsofmitigationactions
fromproject,toregionalandnationallevel(FarleyandCostanza,2010).Furthermore,designing
ecosystemmarketapproachesyieldsmethodologiesfortheevaluationofindividualcomponents
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(e.g.,waterqualityresponsetoreforestation,timberyield),andothertypesofecosystemservice
(e.g.,biodiversity,socialamenity;Bryanetal.,2013).
11.8 Barriersandopportunities
Barriersandopportunitiesrefertotheconditionsprovidedbythedevelopmentcontext(Section
11.4.5).Theseconditionscanenableandfacilitate(opportunities)orhinder(barriers)thefulluseof
AFOLUmitigationmeasures.AFOLUprogrammesandpoliciescanhelptoovercomebarriers,but
countriesbeingaffectedbymanybarrierswillneedtime,financing,andcapacitysupport.Insome
cases,internationalnegotiationshaverecognizedthesedifferentcircumstancesamongcountries
andhaveproposedcorrespondingapproaches(e.g.,aphasedapproachintheREDD+,GreenClimate
Fund;Section11.10).CorrespondingtothedevelopmentframeworkpresentedinSection11.4.5,the
followingtypesofbarriersandbenefitsarediscussed:socioeconomic,environmental,institutional,
technological,andinfrastructural.
11.8.1 Socioeconomicbarriersandopportunities
ThedesignandcoverageofthefinancingmechanismsiskeytosuccessfuluseoftheAFOLU
mitigationpotential(Section11.10;Chapter16).Questionsremainoverwhichcostswillbecovered
bysuchmechanisms.Iffinancingmechanismsfailtocoveratleasttransactionandmonitoringcosts,
theywillbecomeabarriertothefullimplementationofAFOLUmitigation.Accordingtosome
studies,opportunitycostsalsoneedtobefullycoveredbyanyfinancingmechanismfortheAFOLU
sector,especiallyindevelopingcountries,asotherwiseAFOLUmitigationmeasureswouldbeless
attractivecomparedtoreturnsfromotherlanduses(Angelsen,2008;Cattaneoetal.,2010;Bttcher
etal.,2012).Conversely,iffinancingmechanismsaredesignedtomodifyeconomicactivity,they
couldprovideanopportunitytoleveragealargerproportionofAFOLUmitigationpotential.
Scaleoffinancingsourcescanbecomeeitherabarrier(ifarelevantfinancialvolumeisnotsecured)
orcreateanopportunity(iffinancialsourcesforAFOLUsuffice)forusingAFOLUmitigationpotential
(Streck,2012;Chapter16).AnotherelementistheaccessibilitytoAFOLUfinancingforfarmersand
foreststakeholders(Tubielloetal.,2009,p.200;Havemann,2011;Colfer,2011).Financialconcerns,
includingreducedaccesstoloanandcredits,hightransactioncostsorreducedincomeduetoprice
changesofcarboncreditsovertheprojectduration,arepotentialrisksforAFOLUmeasures,
especiallyindevelopingcountries,andwhenlandholdersusemarketmechanisms(e.g.,
AfforestationandReforestation(A/R)CleanDevelopmentMechanism(CDM);Madleneretal.,2006).
Povertyischaracterizednotonlybylowincome,butalsobyinsufficientfoodavailabilityintermsof
quantityand/orquality,limitedaccesstodecisionmakingandsocialorganization,lowlevelsof
educationandreducedaccesstoresources(e.g.,landortechnology;UNDPInternationalPoverty
Centre,2006).HighlevelsofpovertycanlimitthepossibilitiesforusingAFOLUmitigationoptions,
becauseofshorttermprioritiesandlackingresources.Inaddition,poorcommunitieshavelimited
skillsandsometimeslackofsocialorganizationthatcanlimittheuseandscalingupofAFOLU
mitigationoptions,andcanincreasetheriskofdisplacement,withotherpotentialadverseside
effects(SmithandWollenberg,2012;Huettner,2012).Thisisespeciallyrelevantwhenforestland
sparingcompeteswithotherdevelopmentneedse.g.,increasinglandforagricultureorpromoting
sometypesofmining(Forneretal.,2006),orwhenlargescalebioenergycompromisesfoodsecurity
(Nonhebel,2005;Section11.13).
CulturalvaluesandsocialacceptancecandeterminethefeasibilityofAFOLUmeasures,becominga
barrieroranopportunitydependingofthespecificcircumstances(deBoeretal.,2011).
11.8.2 Institutionalbarriersandopportunities
Transparentandaccountablegovernanceandswiftinstitutionalestablishmentareveryimportant
forasustainableimplementationofAFOLUmitigationmeasures.Thisincludestheneedtohave
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clearlandtenureandlanduserightsregulationsandacertainlevelofenforcement,aswellasclarity
aboutcarbonownership(Palmer,2011;Thompsonetal.,2011;Markus,2011;Rosendaland
Andresen,2011;Murdiyarsoetal.,2012Sections11.4.5;11.10;Chapters14;15).
Lackofinstitutionalcapacity(asameansforsecuringcreationofequalinstitutionsamongsocial
groupsandindividuals)canreducefeasibilityofAFOLUmitigationmeasuresinthenearfuture,
especiallyinareaswheresmallscalefarmersorforestusersarethemainstakeholders(Laitneret
al.,2000;Madleneretal.,2006;Thompsonetal.,2011a).Lackofaninternationalagreementthat
supportsawideimplementationofAFOLUmeasurescanbecomeamajorbarrierforrealizingthe
mitigationpotentialfromthesectorglobally(Section11.10;Chapter13).
11.8.3 Ecologicalbarriersandopportunities
Mitigationpotentialintheagriculturalsectorishighlysitespecific,evenwithinthesameregionor
croppingsystem(Bakeretal.,2007;ChatterjeeandLal,2009).Availabilityoflandandwaterfor
differentusesneedtobebalanced,consideringshortandlongtermpriorities,andglobal
differencesinresourceuse.Consequently,limitedresourcescanbecomeanecologicalbarrierand
thedecisionofhowtousethemneedstobalanceecologicalintegrityandsocietalneeds(Jackson,
2009).
Atthelocallevel,thespecificsoilconditions,wateravailability,GHGemissionreductionpotentialas
wellasnaturalvariabilityandresiliencetospecificsystemswilldeterminethelevelofrealizationof
mitigationpotentialofeachAFOLUmeasure(Bakeretal.,2007;Halvorsonetal.,2011).Frequent
droughtsinAfricaandchangesinthehydrometeorologicaleventsinAsiaandCentralandSouth
Americaareimportantindefiningthespecificregionalpotential(Bradleyetal.,2006;Rotenbergand
Yakir,2010).Ecologicalsaturation(e.g.,soilcarbonoryield)meansthatsomeAFOLUmitigation
optionshavetheirownlimits(Section11.5).ThefactthatmanyAFOLUmeasurescanprovide
adaptationbenefitsprovidesanopportunityforincreasingecologicalefficiency(Guariguataetal.,
2008;vanVuurenetal.,2009;Robledoetal.,2011);Section11.5).
11.8.4 Technologicalbarriersandopportunities
Technologicalbarriersrefertothelimitationsingenerating,procuring,andapplyingscienceand
technologytoidentifyandsolveanenvironmentalproblem.Somemitigationtechnologiesare
alreadyappliednow(e.g.,afforestation,cropland,andgrazinglandmanagement,improvedlivestock
breedsanddiets)sotherearenotechnologicalbarriersfortheseoptions,butothers(e.g.,some
livestockdietaryadditives,croptraitmanipulation)arestillatthedevelopmentstage(seeTable
11.2).
Theabilitytomanageandreuseknowledgeassetsforscientificcommunication,technical
documentationandlearningislackinginmanyareaswheremitigationcouldtakeplace.Future
developmentspresentopportunitiesforadditionalmitigationtoberealizedifeffortstodeliverease
ofuseandrangeofuseareguaranteed.Thereisalsoaneedtoadapttechnologytolocalneedsby
focusingonexistinglocalopportunities(Kandjietal.,2006),asproposedinNationallyAppropriate
MitigationActions(NAMAs)(Section11.10).
Barriersandopportunitiesrelatedtomonitoring,reporting,andverificationoftheprogressof
AFOLUmitigationmeasuresalsoneedbeconsidered.Monitoringactivities,aimedatreducing
uncertainties,providetheopportunityofincreasingcredibilityintheAFOLUsector.Howeverthere
aretechnicalchallenges.Forinstance,monitoringcarboninforestswithhighspatialvariabilityin
speciescompositionandtreedensitycanposeatechnicalbarriertotheimplementationofsome
AFOLUactivities(e.g.,REDD+;Bakeretal.,2010;Section11.10).TheIPCCNationalGreenhouseGas
InventoryGuidelines(Paustianetal.,2006)alsoprovideanopportunity,becausetheyofferstandard
scientificmethodsthatcountriesalreadyusetoreportAFOLUemissionsandremovalsunderthe
UNFCCC.Also,fieldresearchinhighbiomassforests(Gonzalezetal.,2010)showsthatremote
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sensingdataandMonteCarloquantificationofuncertaintyofferatechnicalopportunityfor
implementingREDD+(Section11.10).Exploitingtheexistinghumanskillswithinacountryis
essentialforrealizingfullAFOLUpotential.Alackoftrainedpeoplecanthereforebecomeabarrier
toimplementationofappropriatetechnologies(HeroldandJohns,2007).
Technologyimprovementandtechnologytransferaretwocrucialcomponentsforthesustainable
increaseofagriculturalproductionindevelopedanddevelopingregionswithpositiveimpactsin
termsofmitigation,soil,andbiodiversityconservation(Tilmanetal.,2011).Internationaland
nationalpolicyinstrumentsarerelevanttofostertechnologytransferandtosupportresearchand
development(Section11.10.4),overcomingtechnologicalbarriers.
11.9 Sectoralimplicationsoftransformationpathwaysandsustainable
development
Someclimatechangemanagementobjectivesrequirelargescaletransformationsinhuman
societies,inparticularintheproductionandconsumptionofenergyandtheuseoftheland
resource.Chapter6describesalternativetransformationpathwaysofsocietiesovertimefromnow
intothefuture,consistentwithdifferentclimatechangeoutcomes.Manypathwaysthatforesee
largeeffortsinmitigationwillhaveimplicationsforsustainabledevelopment,andcorrectiveactions
tomovetowardsustainabilitymaybepossible.However,impactsondevelopmentarecontext
specificanddependuponscaleandinstitutionalagreementsoftheAFOLUoptions,andnotmerely
onthetypeofoption(seeSections11.4fordevelopmentcontextandsystemicview,11.7for
potentialcobenefitsandadverseeffects,and11.8foropportunitiesandchallenges).Toevaluate
sectoralimplicationsoftransformationpathways,itisusefultofirstcharacterizethepathwaysin
termsofmitigationtechnologiesandpolicyassumptions.
11.9.1 Characterizationoftransformationpathways
UncertaintyaboutreferenceAFOLUemissionsissignificantbothhistorically(Section11.2)andin
projections(Section6.3.1.3).Thetransformationprojectionsoftheenergysystem,AFOLUemissions
andlandusearecharacterizedbythereferencescenario,aswellastheabatementpolicy
assumptionsregardingeligibleabatementoptions,regionscovered,andtechnologycostsovertime.
Manymitigationscenariossuggestasubstantialcosteffectivemitigationroleforlandrelated
mitigationassumingidealizedpolicyimplementation,withimmediate,global,andcomprehensive
availabilityoflandrelatedmitigationoptions.However,policyimplementationoflargescaleland
basedmitigationwillbechallenging.Inaddition,thetransformationpathwaysoftenignore,oronly
partiallycover,importantmitigationrisks,costs,andbenefits(e.g.,transactioncostsorMonitoring
ReportingandVerification(MRV)costs),andotherdevelopmentalissuesincludingintergenerational
debtornonmonetarybenefits(Ackermanetal.,2009;LubowskiandRose,2013).
Inrecentidealizedimplementationscenariosfromamodelcomparisonstudy,landrelatedchanges
canrepresentasignificantshareofemissionsreductions(Table11.10).Inthesescenarios,models
assumeanexplicitterrestrialcarbonstockincentive,oraglobalforestprotectionpolicy,aswellas
animmediateglobalmitigationpolicyingeneral.Bioenergyisconsistentlydeployed(becauseitis
consideredtoreducenetGHGemissionsovertime;seeSection6.3.5),andagriculturalemissionsare
priced.NotethatbioenergyrelatedmitigationisnotcapturedinTable11.10.Thelargestland
emissionreductionsoccurinnetCO2emissions,whichalsohavethegreatestvariabilityacross
models.SomemodelsexhibitincreasinglandCO2emissionsundermitigation,asbioenergy
feedstockproductionleadstoLUC,whileothermodelsexhibitsignificantreductionswithprotection
ofexistingterrestrialcarbonstocksandplantingofnewtreestoincreasecarbonstocks.Landrelated
CO2andN2Omitigationismoreimportantinthenearertermforsomemodels.LandrelatedN2O
andCH4reductionsareasignificantpartoftotalN2OandCH4reductions,butonlyasmallfractionof
baselineemissions,suggestingthatmodelshavecosteffectivereasonstokeepN2OandCH4
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emissions.Emissionsreductionsfromlandincreaseonlyslightlywiththestringencyofthe
atmosphericconcentrationgoal,asenergyandindustryemissionreductionsincreasefasterwith
targetstringency.Thisresultisconsistentwithpreviousstudies(Roseetal.,2012).LandbasedCO2
reductionscanbeover100%ofbaselineemissions,fromtheexpansionofmanagedandunmanaged
forestsforsequestration.
Emissionsreductionsfromindividuallandrelatedtechnologies,especiallybioenergy,arenot
generallyreportedintransformationpathwaystudies.Inpart,thisisduetoemphasisontheenergy
system,butalsootherfactorsthatmakeitdifficulttouniquelyquantifymitigationbytechnology.An
exceptionisRoseetal.(2012)whoreportedagriculture,forestcarbon,andbioenergyabatement
levelsforvariousatmosphericconcentrationgoals.Cumulatively,overthecentury,bioenergywas
thedominantstrategy,followedbyforestry,andthenagriculture.Bioenergycumulativelygenerated
approximately5to52GtCO2eqand113to749GtCO2eqmitigationby2050and2100,respectively.
Intotal,landrelatedstrategiescontributed20to60%oftotalcumulativeabatementto2030,15to
70%to2050,and15to40%to2100.
Withinmodels,thereisapositivecorrelationbetweenemissionsreductionsandGHGprices.
However,acrossmodels,itislessclear,assomeestimatelargereductionswithalowGHGprice,
whileothersestimatelowreductionsdespiteahighGHGprice(Roseetal.,2012).Forthemostpart,
thesedivergentviewsareduetodifferencesinmodelassumptionsandaredifficulttodisentangle.
Overall,whileatightertargetandhighercarbonpriceresultsinadecreaseinlanduseemissions,
emissionsdeclineatadecreasingrate.Thisisindicativeoftherisingrelativecostoflandmitigation,
theincreasingdemandforbioenergy,andsubsequentincreasingneedforoverallenergysystem
GHGabatementandenergyconsumptionreductions.Foradditionaldiscussionoflandspotential
roleintransformationpathways,especiallyregardingphysicallanduseandbioenergy,seesections
6.3.2.4and6.3.5.
Table 11.10 Cumulative land-related emissions reductions, land reduction share of global reductions,
and percent of baseline land emissions reduced for CH4, CO2, and N2O in idealized implementation
550 and 450 ppm CO2eq scenarios. The number of scenarios is indicated for each GHG and
atmospheric concentration goal. Negative values represent increases in emissions (Kriegler et al.,
2013). Bioenergy-related mitigation is not captured in the table.
550ppm 450ppm
2010 2010 2010 2010 2010 2010
2030 2050 2100 2030 2050 2100
CH4 min 3.5 17.5 51.4 0.0 4.5 52.3
(n=5/5) max 9.8 46.0 201.7 12.7 50.5 208.6
CO2 min 20.2 43.2 129.8 20.3 50.8 153.9
Cumulativegloballand (n=11/10) max 280.9 543.0 733.4 286.6 550.5 744.6
relatedemissionsreductions
N2O min 3.1 8.4 25.5 3.1 8.4 25.5
(GtCO2eq)
(n=4/4) max 8.2 27.7 96.6 9.7 29.3 96.8
Sum min 8.7 2.5 53.9 3.7 5.6 69.7
(n=4/4) max 295.2 587.7 903.5 301.4 596.9 940.3
CH4 min 25% 20% 20% 22% 20% 16%
max 37% 40% 42% 30% 31% 36%
CO2 min 43% 12% 4% 20% 8% 4%
Landreductionsshareof max 74% 48% 17% 73% 47% 15%
totalglobalemissions
N2O min 52% 61% 65% 53% 61% 65%
reductions
max 95% 90% 87% 78% 83% 85%
Sum min 11% 0% 1% 2% 1% 1%
max 70% 47% 19% 69% 46% 17%
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CH4 min 3% 8% 10% 0% 2% 10%

max 8% 16% 28% 10% 18% 30%
CO2 min 42% 89% 0% 42% 104% 0%
Percentofbaselineland max 373% 417% 504% 381% 423% 512%
emissionsreduced N2O min 4% 6% 8% 4% 6% 8%
max 10% 16% 22% 12% 17% 22%
Sum min 4% 1% 7% 2% 1% 8%
max 97% 100% 73% 99% 101% 76%
Modelsprojectincreaseddeploymentof,anddependenceon,modernbioenergy(i.e.,non
traditionalbioenergythatisproducedcentrallytoservicecommunitiesratherthanindividual
householdproductionforheatandcooking),withsomemodelsprojectingupto95EJperyearby
2030,andupto245EJperyearby2050.Modelsuniversallyprojectthatthemajorityofagriculture
andforestrymitigation,andbioenergyprimaryenergy,willoccurindevelopingandtransitional
economies(Section6.3.5).
Morerecently,theliteraturehasbegunanalyzingmorerealizticpolicycontexts.Thisworkhas
identifiedanumberofpolicycoordinationandimplementationissues.Therearemanydimensions
topolicycoordination:technologies,sectors,regions,climateandnonclimatepolicies,andtiming.
Therearethreeprominentissues.First,thereiscoordinationbetweenmitigationactivities.For
instance,increasedbioenergyincentiveswithoutglobalterrestrialcarbonstockincentivesorglobal
forestprotectionpolicy,couldresultinsubstantiallandconversionandemissionswithlargescale
deploymentofenergycrops.Theprojectedemissionscomeprimarilyfromthedisplacementof
pasture,grassland,andnaturalforest(Sections6.3.5and11.4.3).Energycroplandexpansionalso
resultsinnonenergycroplandconversion.Thesestudiesfindthatignoringlandconversion
emissionswithenergycropexpansion,resultsintheneedfordeeperemissionsreductionsinthe
fossilandindustrialsectors,andincreasedtotalmitigationcosts.However,illustrativescenariosby
(Calvinetal.,2013a)suggestthatextensiveforestprotectionpoliciesmaybeneededformanaging
bioenergydrivendeforestation.Notethatprovidingenergycrops,especiallywhileprotecting
terrestrialcarbonstocks,couldresultinasignificantincreaseinfoodprices,potentiallyfurther
exacerbatedifalsoexpandingforests(Wiseetal.,2009;Poppetal.,2011;Reillyetal.,2012;Calvin
etal.,2013aseealsoSections11.4.3and11.13.7).Inadditiontocompetitionbetweenenergycrops
andforestcarbonstrategies,thereisalsocompetitionbetweenavoideddeforestationand
afforestationmitigationstrategies,butsynergiesbetweenforestmanagementandafforestation
(RoseandSohngen,2011).Bioenergysustainabilitypoliciesacrosssectorsalsoneedtobe
coordinated(Franketal.,2013).
Thesecondmajorconcerniscoordinationofmitigationactivityovertime.Theanalysesnotedinthe
previousparagraphassumetheabilitytogloballyprotectorincentivizeall,oraportion,offorest
carbonstocks.Afewstudiestodatehaveevaluatedtheimplicationsofstaggeredforestcarbon
incentivesacrossregionsandforestcarbonactivities.Forinstance,(Calvinetal.,2009)estimate
landCO2emissionsincreasesof4and6GtCO2/yrin2030and2050,respectively,fromscenarioswith
staggeredglobalregionalclimatepoliciesthatincludeforestcarbonincentives.And,Roseand
Sohngen(2011)findthatfragmentedordelayedforestcarbonpolicycouldacceleratedeforestation.
Theyproject60100GtCO2ofleakageby2025withacarbonpriceof15USD2010/tCO2thatrisesat
5%peryear.Regionalagricultureandforestrymitigationsupplycostsarealsoaffectedbyregional
participation/nonparticipation,withnonparticipatingregionspotentiallyincreasingthemitigation
costsforparticipatingregions(Golubetal.,2009).Staggeredadoptionoflandmitigationpolicieswill
likelyhaveinstitutionalandsocioeconomicimplicationsaswell(Madleneretal.,2006).Institutional
issues,especiallyclarificationoflandtenureandpropertyrightsandequityissues(Section11.7),will
alsobecriticalforsuccessfullandmitigationinforestryovertime(Palmer,2011;Gupta,2012;
Karsentyetal.,2014).
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Finally,thetypeofincentivestructurehasimplications.Internationallandrelatedmitigation
projectsarecurrentlyregardedashighriskcarbonmarketinvestments,whichmayaffectmarket
appeal.Also,mitigationscenariosassumethatallemissionsandsequestrationchangesarepriced
(similartocappingallemissions).However,mitigation,especiallyinagricultureandforestry,maybe
soughtthroughvoluntarymarkets,wheremitigationsupplierschoosewhethertoparticipate
(Section11.10).Forinstance,Roseetal.(2013)estimatereducedmitigationpotential,aswellas
overcrediting,forUnitedStatesagricultureandforestrywithvoluntarymitigationsupplyincentives,
e.g.,mitigationdecreased2555%at15USD2010/tCO2eqduetononparticipantleakageandnon
additionalcrediting.
11.9.2 ImplicationsoftransformationpathwaysfortheAFOLUsector
Transformationpathwaysindicatethatacombinationofforcescanresultinverydifferentprojected
landscapesrelativetotoday,eveninbaselinescenarios(Section6.3.5).Forinstance,(Poppetal.,
2013)evaluatethreemodels,andshowthatprojected2030baselinechangesfromtodayalonevary
sharplyacrossmodelsinallregions(Figure11.19).SeeSection6.3.5forgloballandcoverchange
resultsforabroadersetofstudiesandpolicycontexts.IntheexamplesinFigure11.19,projections
exhibitgrowthandreductionsinbothnonenergycropland(e.g.,ASIA),andenergycropland(e.g.,
ASIA,OECD1990,EIT).Furthermore,differentkindsoflandareconvertedwhenbaselinecropland
expands(e.g.,MAF).Mitigationgenerallyinducesgreaterlandcoverchangesthaninbaseline
scenarios,butthereareverydifferentpotentialtransformationvisions.Overall,itisdifficultto
generalizeonregionallandcovereffectsofmitigation.Forthesameatmosphericconcentration
goal,somemodelsconvertsignificantarea,somedonot.Thereisenergycroplandexpansionin
manyregionsthatsupportstheproductionofbioenergy.Lessconsistentistheresponseofforest
land,primarilyduetodifferencesinthelandcarbonoptions/policiesmodelled(Section6.3.5).
Finally,thereisrelativelymodestadditionallandconversioninthe450ppm,comparedtothe550
ppm,scenarios,whichisconsistentwiththedecliningroleoflandrelatedmitigationwithpolicy
stringency.
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Figure 11.19. Regional land cover change by 2030 from 2005 from three models for baseline (left)
and idealized policy implementation 550 ppm CO2eq (centre) and 450 ppm CO2eq (right) scenarios.
(Popp et al., 2013).
Theimplicationsoftransformationpathwayscenarioswithlargeregionalexpansionofforestcover
forcarbonsequestration,dependsinpartonhowtheforestareaincreases(Figure11.19;Poppet
al.,2013).Ifforestareasincreasethroughtheexpansionofnaturalvegetation,biodiversityanda
rangeofotherecosystemservicesprovidedbyforestscouldbeenhanced.Ifafforestationoccurs
throughlargescaleplantation,however,somenegativeimpactsonbiodiversity,water,andother
ecosystemservicescouldarise,dependingonwhatlandcovertheplantationreplacesandthe
rotationtime(Section11.7).Similarissuesarisewithlargescalebioenergy,andenvironmental
impactsofenergycropplantations,whichlargelydependuponwhere,how,andatwhatscalethey
areimplemented,andhowtheyaremanaged(Davisetal.,2013;seeSection11.13.6).Not
surprisingly,therealizticpolicycoordinationandimplementationissuesdiscussedinSection11.9.1
couldhavesignificantlanduseconsequences,andadditionalpolicydesignresearchisessentialto
bettercharacterizemitigationcosts,netemissions,andothersocialimplications.
11.9.3 Implicationsoftransformationpathwaysforsustainabledevelopment
Theimplicationsofthetransformationpathwaysonsustainabledevelopmentarecontextandtime
specific.AdetaileddiscussionoftheimplicationsoflargescaleLUC,competitionbetweendifferent
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demandsforland,andthefeedbacksbetweenLUCandotherservicesprovidedbylandisprovided
inSection11.4,potentialcobenefitsandadversesideeffectsarediscussedinSection11.7,and
Section6.6comparespotentialcobenefitsandadversesideeffectsacrosssectors,whileSection
11.8presentstheopportunitiesandbarriersforpromotingAFOLUmitigationactivitiesinthefuture.
Finally,Section11.13discussesthespecificimplicationsofincreasingbioenergycrops.
11.10 Sectoralpolicies
Climatechangeanddifferentpolicyandmanagementchoicesinteract.Theinterrelationsare
particularlystronginagricultureandforestry:climatehasastronginfluenceonthesesectorsthat
alsoconstitutesourcesofGHGaswellassinks(Golubetal.,2009).Thelandprovidesamultitudeof
ecosystemservices,climatechangemitigationbeingjustoneofmanyservicesthatarevitalto
humanwellbeing.Thenatureofthesectormeansthatthereare,potentially,manybarriersand
opportunitiesaswellasawiderangeofpotentialimpactsrelatedtotheimplementationofAFOLU
mitigationoptions(Sections11.7and11.8).Successfulmitigationpoliciesneedtoconsiderhowto
addressthemultifunctionalityofthesector.Furthermore,physicalenvironmentallimitationsare
centralfortheimplementationofmitigationoptionsandassociatedpolicies(Pretty,2013).Thecost
effectivenessofdifferentmeasuresishamperedbyregionalvariability.Nationalandinternational
agriculturalandforestclimatepolicieshavethepotentialtoredefinetheopportunitycostsof
internationallanduseinwaysthateithercomplementorhindertheattainmentofclimatechange
mitigationgoals(Golubetal.,2009).Policyinteractionscouldbesynergistic(e.g.,researchand
developmentinvestmentsandeconomicincentivesforintegratedproductionsystems)orconflicting
(e.g.,policiespromotinglandconversionvs.conservationpolicies)acrossthesector(seeTable
11.11).Additionally,adequatepoliciesareneededtoorientpracticesinagricultureandinforestry
towardglobalsharingofinnovativetechnologiesfortheefficientuseoflandresourcestosupport
effectivemitigationoptions(seeTable11.2).
Fortythreecountriesintotal(asofDecember2010)haveproposedNAMAstotheUNFCCC.
AgricultureandforestryactivitieswereconsideredaswaystoreducetheirGHGemissionsin59and
94%oftheproposedNAMAs.Fortheleastdevelopedcountries,theforestrysectorwasquotedinall
theNAMAs,whiletheagriculturalsectorwasrepresentedin70%oftheNAMAs(Bockeletal.,2010).
PoliciesrelatedtotheAFOLUsectorthataffectmitigationarediscussedbelowaccordingtothe
instrumentsthroughwhichtheymaybeimplemented(economicincentives,regulatoryandcontrol
approaches,information,communicationandoutreach,researchanddevelopment).Economic
incentives(e.g.,specialcreditlinesforlowcarbonagriculture,sustainableagricultureandforestry
practices,tradablecredits,paymentforecosystemservices)andregulatoryapproaches(e.g.,
enforcementofenvironmentallawtoreducedeforestation,setasidepolicies,airandwater
pollutioncontrolreducingnitrateloadandN2Oemissions)havebeeneffectiveindifferentcases.
Investmentsinresearch,development,anddiffusion(e.g.,improvedfertilizeruseefficiency,
livestockimprovement,betterforestrymanagementpractices)couldresultinpositiveand
synergisticimpactsforadaptationandmitigation(Section11.5).EmphasisisgiventoREDD+,
consideringitsdevelopmentinrecentyears,andrelevanceforthediscussionofmitigationpoliciesin
theforestrysector.
11.10.1 Economicincentives
Emissionstrading:Carbonmarketsoccurunderbothcomplianceschemesandasvoluntary
programmes.AreviewofexistingoffsetprogrammeswasprovidedbyKollmussetal.(2010).More
detailsarealsopresentedinSection15.5.3.Compliancemarkets(Kyotooffsetmechanisms,
mandatorycapandtradesystems,andothermandatoryGHGsystems)arecreatedandregulatedby
mandatorynational,regional,orinternationalcarbonreductionregimes(Kollmussetal.,2010).The
threeKyotoProtocolmechanismsareveryimportantfortheregulatorymarket:CDM,Joint
Implementation(JI)andtheEmissionsTradingSystem(ETS).Currently,AFOLUprojectsinCDMonly
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includespecifictypesofprojects:foragriculturemethaneavoidance(manuremanagement),
biogasprojects,agriculturalresiduesforbiomassenergy;forforestryreforestationand
afforestation.ByJune2013,thetotalnumberofregisteredCDMprojectswas6989,0.6and2.5%of
thistotalbeingrelatedtoafforestation/reforestationandagriculture,respectively(UNFCCCCDM);
therefore,financestreamscomingfromA/RCDMProjectsaremarginalfromtheglobalperspective.
AnanalysisofA/RCDMprojectssuggestscrucialfactorsfortheperformanceoftheseprojectsare
initialfundingsupport,design,andimplementationguidedbylargeorganizationswithtechnical
expertise,occurrenceonprivateland(landwithsecuredpropertyrightsattached),andthatmost
revenuefromCertifiedEmissionReductions(CERs)isdirectedbacktolocalcommunities(Thomaset
al.,2010).
TherearecomplianceschemesoutsidethescopeoftheKyotoProtocol,butthesearecarriedout
exclusivelyatthenationallevel,withnorelationtotheProtocol.In2011,Australiastartedthe
CarbonFarmingInitiative(CFI)thatallowsfarmersandinvestorstogeneratetradablecarbonoffsets
fromfarmlandandforestryprojects.Thisfollowedseveralyearsofstatebasedandvoluntary
activitythatresultedin65,000haofA/Rprojects(Mitchelletal.,2012).AnotherexampleisThe
WesternArnhemLandFireAbatementProject(WALFA),afiremanagementprojectinAustralia
initiatedin2006thatproducesatradablecarbonoffsetthroughtheapplicationofimprovedfire
managementusingtraditionalmanagementpracticesofindigenouslandowners(Whiteheadetal.,
2008;Bradstocketal.,2012).Albertasoffsetcreditsystemisacompliancemechanismforentities
regulatedundertheprovincesmandatoryGHGemissionintensitybasedregulatorysystem
(Kollmussetal.,2010).InthecaseofN2Oemissionsfromagriculture,theAlbertaQuantification
ProtocolforAgriculturalN2OEmissionsReductionsissuesCoffsetcreditsforonfarmreductionsof
N2Oemissionsandfueluseassociatedwiththemanagementoffertilizer,manure,andcropresidues
foreachcroptypegrown.OtherN2Oemissionreductionprotocols(e.g.,Millaretal.,2010)arebeing
consideredfortheVerifiedCarbonStandard,theAmericanCarbonRegistry,andtheClimateAction
Reserve(Robertsonetal.,2013).
AgricultureandForestryactivitiesarenotcoveredbytheEuropeanUnionEmissionsTradingScheme
(EUETS),whichisbyfarthelargestexistingcarbonmarket.ForestryenteredtheNewZealandKyoto
ProtocolcompliantETSin2008,andmandatoryreportingforagriculturebeganin2012,althoughfull
entryofagricultureintotheschemehasbeendelayedindefinitely.Agriculturalparticipantsinclude
meatprocessors,dairyprocessors,nitrogenfertilizermanufacturersandimporters,andliveanimal
exporters,althoughsomeexemptionsapply(GovernmentofNewZealand).CaliforniasCapand
TradeRegulationtookeffectonJanuary1,2012,withamendmentstotheRegulationeffective
September1,2012.TheenforceablecomplianceobligationbeganonJanuary1,2013.Fourtypesof
projectswereapprovedaseligibletogeneratecarboncreditstoregulatedemittersinCalifornia:
avoidanceofmethaneemissionsfrominstallationofanaerobicdigestersonfarms,carbon
sequestrationinurbanandruralforestry,anddestructionofozonedepletingsubstances(California
EnvironmentalProtectionAgency).
Voluntarycarbonmarketsoperateoutsideofthecompliancemarkets.Byenablingbusinesses,
governments,nongovernmentalorganizations(NGOs),andindividualstopurchaseoffsetsthat
werecreatedeitherinthevoluntarymarketorthroughtheCDM,theycanoffsettheiremissions
(VerifiedorVoluntaryEmissionsReductions(VERs)).Thevoluntaryoffsetmarketincludesawide
rangeofprogrammes,entities,standards,andprotocols(e.g.,Community&BiodiversityStandards,
GoldStandard,PlanVivoamongothers)toimprovethequalityandcredibilityofvoluntaryoffsets.
Themostcommonincentivesforthequantitybuyersofcarboncreditsintheprivatesectorare
corporatesocialresponsibilityandpublicrelations.Forestprojectsareincreasinginthevoluntary
markets.Transactionsofcarboncreditsfromthissectortotalled133millionUSDin2010,95%of
theminvoluntarymarkets(PetersStanleyetal.,2011).
Reducingemissionsfromdeforestation;reducingemissionsfromforestdegradation;conservationof
forestcarbonstocks;sustainablemanagementofforests;andenhancementofforestcarbonstocks
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(REDD+):REDD+consistsofforestrelatedactivitiesimplementedvoluntarilybydevelopingcountries
thatmay,inisolationorjointlyleadtosignificantclimatechangemitigation11.REDD+wasintroduced
intheagendaoftheUNFCCCin2005,andhassinceevolvedtoanimprovedunderstandingofthe
potentialpositiveandnegativeimpacts,methodologicalissues,safeguards,andfinancialaspects
associatedwithREDD+implementation.Here,wefirstaddresstheREDD+discussionsunderthe
UNFCCC,butalsointroduceotherREDD+relatedinitiatives.ThenovelaspectsofREDD+underthe
Convention,relativetopreviousforestrelatedmitigationeffortsbydevelopingcountriesunderthe
UNFCCCareitsnationalandbroadercoverage,incontrasttoprojectbasedmitigationactivities12
(e.g.,undertheCDMoftheKyotoProtocol).Itsmaininnovationisitsresultsbasedapproach,in
whichpaymentsaredoneexpostinrelationtoamitigationoutcomealreadyachieved,asopposed
toprojectbasedactivities,wherefinancingisprovidedexanteinrelationtoexpectedoutcomes.A
phasedapproachtoREDD+wasagreedattheUNFCCC,buildingfromthedevelopmentofnational
strategiesoractionplans,policiesandmeasures,andevolvingintoresultsbasedactionsthatshould
befullymeasured,reported,andverifiedMRV(UNFCCCDec.1/16).REDD+paymentsareexpected
forresultsbasedactions,andalthoughtheUNFCCChasalreadyidentifiedpotentialwaystopayfor
these13,thefinancingarchitecturefortheREDD+mechanismisstillundernegotiationunderthe
UNFCCC.
Meanwhile,andasaresulttotheexplicitrequestfromtheUNFCCCforearlyactionsinREDD+,
differentregionalandglobalprogrammesandpartnershipsaddressforestmanagementand
conservationandreadinessforREDD+(Table11.11),whilesomeREDD+strategieshavestartedin
countrieswithsignificantforestcover(seeBox11.7forexamples).Initiativesincludemultilateral
activities(e.g.,UNREDDProgramme,ForestCarbonPartnershipFacility,ForestInvestment
Program),bilateralactivities(e.g.,TanzaniaNorway,IndonesiaNorway),countrydriveninitiatives
(inadditionto16UNREDDProgrammecountries,theProgrammealsosupports31otherpartner
countriesacrossAfrica,AsiaPacific,andLatinAmericaandtheCaribbean;UNREDDProgramme
SupporttoPartnerCountries).
REDD+canbeaverycosteffectiveoptionformitigatingclimatechangeandcouldsupplyalarge
shareofglobalabatementofemissionsfromtheAFOLUsectorfromtheextensivemarginof
forestry,especiallythroughreducingdeforestationintropicalregions(Golubetal.,2009).Issuesof
concernforREDD+implementationhavebeencapturedunderREDD+safeguardsinlinewiththe
UNFCCCCancunAgreement.TorespondtotherequirementsoutlinedintheUNFCCCagreement,a
numberofstepsneedtobeconsideredinthedevelopmentofcountrylevelsafeguardinformation
systemsforREDD+includingdefiningsocialandenvironmentalobjectives,assessingpotential
benefitsandrisksfromREDD+,assessingcurrentsafeguardsystems,draftingastrategicplanor
policy,andestablishingagovernancesystem.
11
Decision1/CP.16(FCCC/CP/2010/7/Add.1,paragraph70)Encouragesdevelopingcountriestocontributeto
mitigationactionsintheforestsectorbyundertakingthefollowingactivities,asdeemedappropriatebyeach
Partyandinaccordancewiththeirrespectivecapabilitiesandnationalcircumstancesreducingemissions
fromdeforestation;reducingemissionsfromforestdegradation;conservationofforestcarbonstocks;
sustainablemanagementofforests;andenhancementofforestcarbonstocks.
12
Decision1/CP.16(FCCC/CP/2010/7/Add.1,paragraph73)DecidesthattheactivitiesundertakenbyParties
referredtoinparagraph70aboveshouldbeimplementedinphases,beginningwiththedevelopmentof
nationalstrategiesoractionplans,policiesandmeasures,andcapacitybuilding,followedbythe
implementationofnationalpoliciesandmeasuresandnationalstrategiesoractionplansthatcouldinvolve
furthercapacitybuilding,technologydevelopmentandtransferandresultsbaseddemonstrationactivities,
andevolvingintoresultsbasedactionsthatshouldbefullymeasured,reportedandverified.
13
Decision2/CP.17(FCCC/CP/2011/9/Add.1,paragraph65)Agreesthatresultsbasedfinanceprovidedto
developingcountryPartiesthatisnew,additionalandpredictablemaycomefromawidevarietyofsources,
publicandprivate,bilateralandmultilateral,includingalternativesources.
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Agrowingbodyofliteraturehasanalyzeddifferentaspectsrelatedtotheimplementation,
effectiveness,andscaleofREDD+,aswellastheinteractionswithothersocialandenvironmental
cobenefits(e.g.,(Angelsenetal.,2008;Levinetal.,2008;Larson,2011;Gardneretal.,2012)).
ResultsbasedREDD+actions,whichareentitledtoresultsbasedfinance,requireinternationally
agreedrulesforMRV.Measuringandmonitoringtheresultswillmostlikelyrelyonacombinationof
remotelysenseddatawithgroundbasedinventories.ThedesignofaREDDpolicyframework(and
specificallyitsrules)canhaveasignificantimpactonmonitoringcosts(Angelsenetal.,2008;
Bttcheretal.,2009).Forestgovernanceisanothercentralaspectinrecentstudies,including
debateondecentralizationofforestmanagement,loggingconcessionsinpublicowned
commerciallyvaluableforests,andtimbercertification,primarilyintemperateforests(Agrawalet
al.,2008).Althoughthemajorityofforestscontinuetobeformallyownedbygovernments,there
areindicationsthattheeffectivenessofforestgovernanceisincreasinglyindependentofformal
ownership(Agrawaletal.,2008).However,therearewidespreadconcernsthatREDD+willincrease
costsonforestdependentpeoplesandinthiscontext,stakeholdersrights,includingrightsto
continuesustainabletraditionallandusepractices,appearasapreconditionforREDDdevelopment
(Phelpsetal.,2010b).
Somestudieshaveaddressedthepotentialdisplacementofemissions(i.e.,areductionofemissions
inoneplaceresultinginanincreaseofemissionselsewhere(orleakage)(Santillietal.,2005;Forner
etal.,2006;Nabuursetal.,2007;Strassburgetal.,2008,2009;Section11.3.2).Thenational
coverageofREDD+mightamelioratetheissueofemissionsdisplacement,amajordrawbackof
projectbasedapproaches(HeroldandSkutsch,2011).Tominimizetransnationaldisplacementof
emissions,REDD+needstostimulatethelargestnumberofdevelopingcountriestoengage
voluntarily.TherearealsoconcernsabouttheimpactsofREDD+designandimplementationoptions
onbiodiversityconservation,asareasofhighCcontentandhighbiodiversityarenotnecessarily
coincident.SomeaspectsofREDD+implementationthatmightaffectbiodiversityincludesite
selection,managementstrategies,andstakeholderengagement(Harveyetal.,2010).Froma
conservationbiologyperspective,itisalsorelevantwherethedisplacementoccurs,asdeforestation
andexploitationofnaturalresourcescouldmovefromareasoflowconservationvaluetothoseof
higherconservationvalue,ortoothernaturalecosystems,threateningspeciesnativetothese
ecosystems(Harveyetal.,2010).Additionally,transnationaldisplacementcouldcausedeforestation
tomoveintorelativelyintactareasofhighbiodiversityvalue,orintocountriesthatcurrentlyhave
littledeforestation(PutzandRedford,2009).

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Box 11.7 Examples of REDD+ initiatives at national scale in different regions with significant
extension of forest cover
AmazonFund:TheAmazonFundinBrazilwasofficiallycreatedin2008byapresidentialdecree.The
BrazilianEconomicandSocialDevelopmentBank(BNDES)wasgiventheresponsibilityofmanaging
it.TheNorwegiangovernmentplayedakeyroleincreatingthefundbydonatingfundstothe
initiativein2009.Sincethen,theAmazonFundhasreceivedfundsfromtwomoredonors:the
FederalRepublicofGermanyandPetrobrs,Brazilslargestoilcompany.AsofFebruary2013,1.03
billionUSDhasbeenpledged,with227millionUSDapprovedforactivities(AmazonFund).
UNREDDDemocraticRepublicofCongo:TheCongoBasinrainforestsarethesecondlargestafter
Amazonia.In2009,DemocraticRepublicoftheCongo(DRC),withsupportofUNREDDProgramme
andForestCarbonPartnershipFacility(FCPC),startedplanningtheimplementationstagesofREDD+
readiness.TheinitialDRCNationalProgrammetransitionedintothefullNationalProgramme
(ReadinessPlan)afteritwasapprovedbytheUNREDDProgrammePolicyBoardin2010(UNREDD
Programme).Thebudgetcomprises5.5millionUSD2010andtimeframeis20102013.
IndonesiaNorwayREDD+Partnership:In2010,theIndonesiaNorwayREDD+Partnershipwas
establishedthroughanagreementbetweengovernmentsofthetwocountries.Theobjectivewasto
supportIndonesiaseffortstoreduceemissionsfromdeforestationanddegradationofforestsand
peatlands.Indonesiaagreedtotakesystematicanddecisiveactiontoreduceitsforestandpeat
relatedGHGemissions,whereasNorwayagreedtosupportthoseeffortsbymakingavailableupto1
billionUSD2010,exclusivelyonapaymentforresultsbasisoverthenextfewyears(UNREDD
Programme).In2013,Indonesiasgovernmenthasextendedthemoratoriumonnewforest
concessionsforafurthertwoyears,protectinganadditional14.5Mhaofforest.
Taxes,charges,subsidies:Financialregulationsareanotherapproachtopollutioncontrol.Arangeof
instrumentscanbeused:pollutioncharges,taxesonemission,taxesoninputs,andsubsidies
(Jakobssonetal.,2002).Nitrogentaxesareonepossibleinstrument,sinceagriculturalemissionsof
N2Omainlyderivefromtheuseofnitrogenousfertilizers.Ananalysisofthetaxonthenitrogen
contentofsyntheticfertilizersinSwedenindicatedthatdirectN2Oemissionsfromagriculturalsoils
inSweden(thetaxabolishedin2010)wouldhavebeenonaverage160tonsor2%higherwithout
thetax(Mohlin,2013).Additionally,thestudyshowedthatremovaloftheNtaxcouldcompletely
counteractthedecreasesinCO2emissionsexpectedfromthefuturetaxincreaseonagriculturalCO2.
ThemitigationpotentialofGHGweightedconsumptiontaxesonanimalfoodproductswas
estimatedfortheEUusingamodeloffoodconsumption(Wirseniusetal.,2011).A7%reductionof
currentGHGemissioninEuropeanUnion(EU)agriculturewasestimatedwithaGHGweightedtax
onanimalfoodproductsof79USD2010/tCO2eq(60EUR2010/tCO2eq).Lowinterestloanscanalso
supportthetransitiontosustainableagriculturalpracticesascurrentlyimplementedinBrazil,the
secondlargestfoodexporter,throughthenationalprogramme(launchedin2010;PlanoABC).
11.10.2 RegulatoryandControlApproaches
Deforestationcontrolandlandplanning(protectedareasandlandsparing/setasidepolicies):The
rateofdeforestationinthetropicsandrelativecontributiontoanthropogeniccarbonemissionshas
beendeclining(Houghton,2012;seeSection11.2fordetails).Publicpolicieshavehadasignificant
impactbyreducingdeforestationratesinsometropicalcountries(see,e.g.,Box11.8).

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Box 11.8 Deforestation control in Brazil
TheBrazilianActionPlanforthePreventionandControlofDeforestationintheLegalAmazon
(PPCDAm)includescoordinatedeffortsamongfederal,state,andmunicipalgovernments,andcivil
organizations,remotesensingmonitoring,significantincreaseofnewprotectedareas(SoaresFilho
etal.,2010),andcombinationofeconomicandregulatoryapproaches.Forexample,since2008
federalgovernmentimposedsanctionstomunicipalitieswithveryhighdeforestationrates,subsidies
werecutandnewcreditpoliciesmaderuralcreditdependentoncompliancewithenvironmental
legislation(Macedoetal.,2012;Nolteetal.,2013).
Sinceagriculturalexpansionisoneofthedriversofdeforestation(especiallyintropicalregions),one
centralquestionisifintensificationofagriculturereducescultivatedareasandresultsinlandsparing
byconcentratingproductiononotherland.Landsparingwouldallowreleasedlandstosequester
carbon,provideotherenvironmentalservices,andprotectbiodiversity(Fischeretal.,2008).Inthe
UnitedStates,over13MhaofformercroplandareenrolledintheUSConservationReserveProgram
(CRP),withbiodiversity,waterquality,andcarbonsequestrationbenefits(Gelfandetal.,2011).In
1999,ChinalaunchedtheGrainforGreenProgramorSlopingLandConversionProgramasanational
measuretoincreasevegetationcoverandreduceerosion.Croplandandbarrenlandweretargeted
andover20Mhaoflandwereconvertedintomostlytreebasedplantations.Overitsfirst10years
between~800to1700MtCO2eq(Moberg,2011)weresequestered.
Environmentalregulation(GHGandtheirprecursorsemissionscontrol):Inmanydeveloped
countries,environmentalconcernsrelatedtowaterandairpollutionsincethemid1990sledtothe
adoptionoflawsandregulationsthatnowmandateimprovedagriculturalnutrientmanagement
planning(Jakobssonetal.,2002).SomepolicyinitiativesdealindirectlywithNleakagesandthus
promotethereductionofN2Oemissions.TheEUNitratesDirective(1991)setslimitsontheuseof
fertilizerNandanimalmanureNinnitratevulnerablezones.Acrossthe27EUMemberStates,
39.6%ofterritoryissubjecttorelatedactionprogrammes.However,intermsoftheeffectivenessof
environmentalpoliciesandagriculture,therehasbeenconsiderableprogressincontrollingpoint
pollution,buteffortstocontrolnonpointpollutionofnutrientshavebeenlesssuccessful,and
potentialsynergiesfromvarioussoilmanagementstrategiescouldbebetterexploited.Emission
targetsfortheAFOLUsectorwerealsointroducedbydifferentcountries(e.g.,ClimateChangeActs
inUKandScotland;EuropeanUnion).
Bioenergytargets:Manycountriesworldwide,by2012,havesettargetsormandatesorbothfor
bioenergy,todelivertomultiplepolicyobjectives,suchasclimatechangemitigation,energy
security,andruraldevelopment.ThebulkofmandatescontinuetocomefromtheEU27but13
countriesintheAmericas,12inAsiaPacific,and8inAfricahavemandatesortargetsinplace
(Petersen,2008);www.biofuelsdigest.com).Forthesustainabilityofbiofuelsimplementation,land
useplanningandgovernancearecentral(Tilmanetal.,2009),asrelatedpolicyandlegislation,e.g.,
inagriculture,forestry,environmentandtrade,canstronglyinfluencethedevelopmentofbioenergy
programmes(Julletal.,2007).ArecentstudyanalyzedtheconsequencesofrenewabletargetsofEU
memberstatesontheCO2sinkofEUforests,andindicatedadecreaseintheforestsinkby411%
(Bttcheretal.,2012).Anotherpossibletradeoffofbiofueltargetsisrelatedtointernationaltrade.
Globaltradeinbiofuelsmighthaveamajorimpactonothercommoditymarkets(e.g.,vegetableoils
oranimalfodder)andhasalreadycausedanumberoftradedisputes,becauseofsubsidiesandnon
tariffbarriers(OosterveerandMol,2010).
11.10.3 Informationschemes
Acceptabilitybylandmanagersandpracticabilityofmitigationmeasures(Table11.2)needtobe
considered,becausetheefficiencyofapolicyisdeterminedbythecostofachievingagivengoal
(Sections11.4.5;11.7).Therefore,costsrelatedtoeducationandcommunicationofpoliciesshould
betakenintoaccount(Jakobssonetal.,2002).Organizationscreatedtofostertheuseofsciencein
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environmentalpolicy,management,andeducationcanfacilitatetheflowofinformationfrom
sciencetosociety,increasingawarenessofenvironmentalproblems(Osmondetal.,2010).Inthe
agriculturesector,nonprofitconservationorganizations(e.g.,TheSustainableAgricultureNetwork
(SAN))andgovernments(e.g.,FarmingforaBetterClimate,Scotland)promotethesocialand
environmentalsustainabilityofactivitiesbydevelopingstandardsandeducationalcampaigns.
Certificationschemesalsosupportsustainableagriculturalpractices(Sections11.4.5;11.7).Climate
friendlycriteriareinforceexistingcertificationcriteriaandprovideadditionalvalue.Different
certificationsystemsalsoconsiderimprovementsinforestmanagement,reduceddeforestationand
carbonuptakebyregrowth,reforestation,agroforestry,andsustainableagriculture.Inthelast20
years,forestcertificationhasbeendevelopedasaninstrumentforpromotingsustainableforest
management.Certificationschemesencompassallforesttypes,butthereisaconcentrationin
temperateforests(Durstetal.,2006).Approximately8%ofglobalforestareahasbeencertified
underavarietyofschemesand25%ofglobalindustrialroundwoodcomesfromcertifiedforests
(FAO,2009b).Lessthan2%offorestareainAfrican,Asian,andtropicalAmericanforestsare
certified,andmostcertifiedforests(82%)arelargeandmanagedbytheprivatesector(ITTO,2008).
Intheforestrysector,manygovernmentshaveworkedtowardsacommonunderstandingof
sustainableforestmanagement(Auldetal.,2008).Certificationbodiescertifythatfarmsorgroups
complywithstandardsandpolicies(e.g.,RainforestAllianceCertified).Insome,specificvoluntary
climatechangeadaptationandmitigationcriteriaareincluded.
Forestcertificationasaninstrumenttopromotesustainableforestmanagement(SFM)and
biodiversitymaintenancewasevaluatedby(RametsteinerandSimula,2003)theyindicatedthat
standardsusedforissuingcertificatesuponcompliancearediverse,butoftenincludeelementsthat
sethigherthanminimumstandards.
Further,independentauditsareanincentiveforimprovingforestmanagement.Inspiteofmany
difficulties,forestcertificationwasconsideredsuccessfulinraisingawareness,disseminating
knowledgeontheSFMconceptworldwide,andprovidingatoolforarangeofapplicationsother
thantheassessmentofsustainability,e.g.,verifyingcarbonsinks.Anotherevaluationofcertification
schemesforconservingbiodiversity(Harveyetal.,2008)indicatedsomeconstraintsthatprobably
alsoapplytoclimatefriendlycertification:weaknessofcomplianceorenforcementofstandards,
transactioncostsandpaperworkoftenlimitparticipation,andincentivesareinsufficienttoattract
highlevelsofparticipation.Biofuelcertificationisaspecificcaseastherearemultipleactorsand
severalsuccessivesegmentsofbiofuelproductionpathways:feedstockproduction,conversionof
thefeedstocktobiofuels,wholesaletrade,retail,anduseofbiofuelsinengines(Gnansounou,2011).
Becauseofthelengthandthecomplexityofbiofuelsupplychainsassessingsustainabilityis
challenging(Kaphengstetal.,2009)
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Table 11.11 Some regional and global programs and partnerships related to illegal logging, forest management and conservation and REDD+
Programme/Institution/Source Context ObjectivesandStrategies

ForestLawEnforcementandGovernance Illegalloggingandlackofappropriateforestgovernanceare Supportregionalforestlawenforcementandgovernance(FLEG)
(FLEG)/ majorobstacletocountriestoalleviatepoverty,todevelop
WorldBank/ theirnaturalresourcesandtoprotectglobalandlocal
www.worldbank.org/eapfleg environmentalservicesandvalues
ImprovingForestLawEnforcementand RegionalcooperationintheEuropeanNeighbourhoodPolicy Supportgovernments,civilsociety,andtheprivatesectorinparticipatingcountriesinthe
GovernanceintheEuropean InitiativeEastCountries(Armenia,Azerbaijan,Belarus, developmentofsoundandsustainableforestmanagementpractices,includingreducingthe
NeighbourhoodPolicyEastCountriesand Georgia,Moldova,andUkraine),andRussiafollowingupon incidenceofillegalforestryactivities.
Russia(ENPIFLEG)/EU/ theSt.PetersburgDeclaration
www.enpifleg.org
ForestLawEnforcement,Governanceand Illegallogginghasadevastatingimpacton someoftheworlds Excludeillegaltimberfrommarkets,toimprovethesupplyoflegaltimberandtoincreasethe
Trade(FLEGT)/EuropeanUnion/ mostvaluableforests.Itcanhavenotonlyserious demandforresponsiblewoodproducts.Centralelementsaretradeaccordstoensurelegal
www.euflegt.efi.int/ environmental,butalsoeconomicandsocialconsequences. timbertradeandsupportgoodforestgovernanceinthepartnercountries.Thereareanumber
ofcountriesinAfrica,Asia,SouthandCentralAmericacurrentlynegotiatingFLEGTVoluntary
PartnershipAgreements(VPAs)withtheEuropeanUnion.
ProgramonForests(PROFOR)/multiple Wellmanagedforestshavethepotentialtoreducepoverty, Provideindepthanalysisandtechnicalassistanceonkeyforestquestionsrelatedtolivelihoods,
donorsincludingtheEuropeanUnion, spureconomicdevelopment,andcontributetoahealthylocal governance,financing,andcrosssectoralissues.PROFORactivitiescompriseanalyticaland
Europeancountries,JapanandtheWorld andglobalenvironment knowledgegeneratingworkthatsupportthestrategysobjectivesofenhancingforests'
Bank/ contributiontopovertyreduction,sustainabledevelopmentandtheprotectionof
www.profor.info environmentalservices.
UNREDDProgramme/UnitedNations/ TheUNcollaborativeinitiativeonReducingEmissionsfrom TheProgrammesupportsnationalREDD+readinesseffortsin46partnercountries(Africa,Asia
www.unredd.org DeforestationandforestDegradation(REDD)indeveloping Pacific,andLatinAmerica)through(i)directsupporttothedesignandimplementationofREDD+
countrieswaslaunchedin2008andbuildsontheconvening NationalProgrammes;and(ii)complementarysupporttonationalREDD+action(common
roleandtechnicalexpertiseoftheFAO,UNDP,andtheUNEP. approaches,analyses,methodologies,tools,data,andbestpractices).
REDD+Partnership/Internationaleffort(50 TheUNFCCChasencouragedthePartiestocoordinatetheir TheREDD+Partnershipservesasaninterimplatformforitspartnercountriestoscaleupactions
differentcountries)/ effortstoreduceemissionsfromdeforestationandforest andfinanceforREDD+initiativesindevelopingcountries(includingimprovingtheeffectiveness,
www.reddpluspartnership.org degradation.Asaresponse,countriesattendingtheMarch efficiency,transparency,andcoordinationofREDD+andfinancialinstruments),tofacilitate
2010InternationalConferenceontheMajorForestBasins, knowledgetransfer,capacityenhancement,mitigationactionsandtechnologydevelopment,
hostedbytheGovernmentofFrance,agreedontheneedto andtransferamongothers.
forgeastronginternationalpartnershiponREDD+.
ForestInvestmentProgram(FIP)/Strategic Reductionofdeforestationandforestdegradationand SupportdevelopingcountrieseffortstoREDDandpromotesustainableforestmanagementby
ClimateFund(amultidonorTrustFund promotionofsustainableforestmanagement,leadingto providingscaledupfinancingtodevelopingcountriesforreadinessreformsandpublicand
withintheClimateInvestmentFunds) emissionreductionsandtheprotectionofcarbonterrestrial privateinvestments,identifiedthroughnationalREDDreadinessorequivalentstrategies.
www.climateinvestmentfunds.org/cif/ sinks.
ForestCarbonPartnership(FCPF)/World AssistancetodevelopingcountriestoimplementREDD+by Buildsthecapacityofdevelopingcountriestoreduceemissionsfromdeforestationandforest
Bank/ providingvaluetostandingforests. degradationandtotapintoanyfuturesystemofREDD+.
www.forestcarbonpartnership.org
IndonesiaAustraliaForestCarbon Australiasassistanceonclimatechange andbuildsonlong ThePartnershipsupportsstrategicpolicydialogueonclimatechange,thedevelopmentof
Partnership/ termpracticalcooperationbetweenIndonesiaandAustralia. Indonesia'sNationalCarbonAccountingSystem,andimplementingdemonstrationactivitiesin
www.iafcp.or.id CentralKalimantan.
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11.10.4 Voluntaryactionsandagreements
Innovativeagriculturalpracticesandtechnologiescanplayacentralroleinclimatechange
mitigationandadaptation,withpolicyandinstitutionalchangesneededtoencouragetheinnovation
anddiffusionofthesepracticesandtechnologiestodevelopingcountries.UndertheUNFCCC,the
2007BaliActionPlanidentifiedtechnologydevelopmentandtransferasapriorityarea.A
TechnologyMechanismwasestablishedbyPartiesattheCOP16in2010tofacilitatethe
implementationofenhancedactionontechnologydevelopmentandtransfer,tosupportactionon
mitigationandadaptation,inordertoachievethefullimplementationoftheConvention(UNFCCC).
Foragriculture,(Burneyetal.,2010)indicatedthatinvestmentinyieldimprovementscompared
favourablywithothercommonlyproposedmitigationstrategies.
Additionally,adaptationmeasuresinagriculturecanalsogeneratesignificantmitigationeffects.
Lobelletal.(2013)investigatedthecobenefitsofadaptationmeasuresonfarmlevelthatreduced
GHGemissionsfromLUC.Thestudyfocusedoninvestmentsinresearchfordevelopingand
deployingnewtechnologies(e.g.,diseaseresistantordroughttolerantcrops,orsoilmanagement
techniques).Itconcludedthatbroadbasedeffortstoadaptagriculturetoclimatechangehave
mitigationcobenefitsthatareassociatedwithlowercoststhanmanyactivitiesfocusingon
mitigation,especiallyindevelopedcountries.
11.11 Gapsinknowledgeanddata
Dataandknowledgegapsinclude:
Improvedglobalhighresolutiondatasetsofcropproductionsystems(includingcrop
rotations,varietyselection,fertilizationpractices,andtillagepractices),grazingareas
(includingquality,intensityofuse,management),andfreshwaterfisheriesandaquaculture,
alsocomprisingsubsistencefarming.
Globallystandardizedandhomogenizeddataonsoilaswellasforestdegradationanda
betterunderstandingoftheeffectsofdegradationoncarbonbalancesandproductivity.
Improvedunderstandingofthemitigationpotential,interplay,andcostsaswellas
environmentalandsocioeconomicconsequencesoflandusebasedmitigationoptionssuch
asimprovedagriculturalmanagement,forestconservation,bioenergyproduction,and
afforestationonthenational,regional,andglobalscale.
Betterunderstandingoftheeffectofchangesinclimateparameters,risingCO2
concentrationsandNdepositiononproductivityandcarbonstocksofdifferenttypesof
ecosystems,andtherelatedconsequencesforlandbasedclimatechangemitigation
potentials.
11.12 FrequentlyAskedQuestions
FAQ11.1HowmuchdoesAFOLUcontributetoGHGemissionsandhowisthischanging?
Agricultureandlandusechange,mainlydeforestationoftropicalforests,contributegreatlyto
anthropogenicgreenhousegasemissionsandareexpectedtoremainimportantduringthe21st
century.AnnualGHGemissions(mainlyCH4andN2O)fromagriculturalproductionin20002010
wereestimatedat5.05.8GtCO2eq/yr,comprisingabout1012%ofglobalanthropogenicemissions.
AnnualGHGfluxfromlanduseandlandusechangeactivitiesaccountedforapproximately4.35.5
GtCO2eq/yr,orabout911%oftotalanthropogenicgreenhousegasemissions.Thetotal
contributionoftheAFOLUsectortoanthropogenicemissionsisthereforearoundonequarterofthe
globalanthropogenictotal.
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FAQ11.2HowwillmitigationactionsinAFOLUaffectGHGemissionsoverdifferent
timescales?
TherearemanymitigationoptionsintheAFOLUsectorthatarealreadybeingimplemented,e.g.,
afforestation,reducingdeforestation,croplandandgrazinglandmanagement,firemanagement,
andimprovedlivestockbreedsanddiets.Thesecanbeimplementednow.Others(suchassome
formsofbiotechnologyandlivestockdietaryadditives)arestillindevelopmentandmaynotbe
applicableforanumberofyears.Intermsofthemodeofactionoftheoptions,incommonwith
othersectors,nonCO2greenhousegasemissionreductionisimmediateandpermanent.However,a
largeportionofthemitigationpotentialintheAFOLUsectoriscarbonsequestrationinsoilsand
vegetation.Thismitigationpotentialdiffers,inthattheoptionsaretimelimited(thepotential
saturates),andtheenhancedcarbonstockscreatedarereversibleandnonpermanent.Thereis,
therefore,asignificanttimecomponentintherealizationandthedurationofmuchofthemitigation
potentialavailableintheAFOLUsector.
FAQ11.3WhatisthepotentialofthemainmitigationoptionsinAFOLUforreducingGHG
emissions?
Ingeneral,availabletopdownestimatesofcostsandpotentialssuggestthatAFOLUmitigationwill
beanimportantpartofaglobalcosteffectiveabatementstrategy.However,potentialsandcostsof
thesemitigationoptionsdiffergreatlybyactivity,regions,systemboundaries,andthetimehorizon.
Especially,forestrymitigationoptionsincludingreduceddeforestation,forestmanagement,
afforestation,andagroforestryareestimatedtocontribute0.213.8GtCO2/yrofeconomically
viableabatementin2030atcarbonpricesupto100USD/tCO2eq.Globaleconomicmitigation
potentialsinagriculturein2030areestimatedtobeupto0.510.6GtCO2eq/yr.Besidessupplyside
basedmitigation,demandsidemitigationoptionscanhaveasignificantimpactonGHGemissions
fromfoodproduction.ChangesindiettowardsplantbasedandhencelessGHGintensivefoodcan
resultinGHGemissionsavingsof0.77.3GtCO2eq/yrin2050,dependingonwhichGHGsanddiets
areconsidered.Reducingfoodlossesandwasteinthesupplychainfromharvesttoconsumption
canreduceGHGemissionsby0.66.0GtCO2eq/yr.
FAQ11.4ArethereanycobenefitsassociatedwithmitigationactionsinAFOLU?
Inseveralcases,theimplementationofAFOLUmitigationmeasuresmayresultinanimprovementin
landmanagementandthereforehavesocioeconomic,health,andenvironmentalbenefits:For
example,reducingdeforestation,reforestation,andafforestationcanimprovelocalclimatic
conditions,waterquality,biodiversityconservation,andhelptorestoredegradedorabandoned
land.Soilmanagementtoincreasesoilcarbonsequestrationmayalsoreducetheamountofwind
andwatererosionduetoanincreaseinsurfacecover.Furtherconsiderationsoneconomicco
benefitsarerelatedtotheaccesstocarbonpaymentseitherwithinoroutsidetheUNFCCC
agreementsandnewincomeopportunitiesespeciallyindevelopingcountries(particularlyfor
labourintensivemitigationoptionssuchasafforestation).
FAQ11.5WhatarethebarrierstoreducingemissionsinAFOLUandhowcanthesebe
overcome?
Therearemanybarrierstoemissionreduction.Firstly,mitigationpracticesmaynotbeimplemented
foreconomicreasons(e.g.,marketfailures,needforcapitalinvestmenttorealizerecurrentsavings),
orarangeoffactorsincludingriskrelated,political/bureaucratic,logistical,andeducational/societal
barriers.Technologicalbarrierscanbeovercomebyresearchanddevelopment;logisticaland
political/bureaucraticbarrierscanbeovercomebybettergovernanceandinstitutions;education
barrierscanbeovercomethroughbettereducationandextensionnetworks;andriskrelated
barrierscanbeovercome,forexample,throughclarificationoflandtenureuncertainties.
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11.13 AppendixBioenergy:Climateeffects,mitigationoptions,potential
andsustainabilityimplications
11.13.1 Introduction
SRREN(IPCC,2011)providedacomprehensiveoverviewonbioenergy(Chumetal.,2011).However,
aspecificbioenergyAppendixinthecontextoftheAR5reportisnecessarybecause(1)manyofthe
morestringentmitigationscenarios(resultingin450ppm,butalso550ppmCO2eqconcentrationby
2100,seeSection11.9.1)heavilyrelyonalargescaledeploymentofbioenergywithcarbondioxide
captureandstorage(BECCS);(2)therehasbeenalargebodyofliteraturepublishedsinceSRREN,
whichcomplementandupdatetheanalysispresentedinthislastreport;(3)bioenergyisimportant
formanychapters(Chapters6;7;8;10;11),andalsopolicychapters,whichmakesitmoreusefulto
treatitinasinglesectioninsteadofinmanyscatteredchaptersectionsthroughoutthereport.
Chapter11istheappropriatelocationfortheAppendix,asbioenergyanalysisreliescruciallyon
landuseassessments.
Bioenergyisenergyderivedfrombiomass,whichcanbedeployedassolid,liquid,andgaseousfuels
forawiderangeofuses,includingtransport,heating,electricityproduction,andcooking(Chumet
al.,2011).Bioenergyhasasignificantmitigationpotential,butthereareissuestoconsider,suchas
thesustainabilityofpracticesandtheefficiencyofbioenergysystems(Chumetal.,2011).Bioenergy
systemscancausebothpositiveandnegativeeffectsandtheirdeploymentneedstobalancearange
ofenvironmental,social,andeconomicobjectivesthatarenotalwaysfullycompatible.The
consequencesofbioenergyimplementationdependon(1)thetechnologyused;(2)thelocation,
scales,andpaceofimplementation;(3)thelandcategoryused(forest,grassland,marginallands,
andcroplands);and(4)thebusinessmodelsandpracticesadoptedincludinghowtheseintegrate
withordisplacetheexistinglanduse.
AsanupdatetotheSRREN,thisreportpresents(1)amorefinegrainedassessmentofthetechnical
bioenergypotentialreflectingdiverseperspectivesintheliterature,(2)recentpotentialestimateson
technologicalsolutionssuchasBECCS,(3)anindepthdescriptionofdifferentlifecycleemission
accountingmethodsandtheirresults;(4)asmallincreaseinuncertaintyonthefutureeconomic
bioenergypotential;(5)acomprehensiveassessmentofdiverselivelihoodandsustainabilityeffects
ofbioenergydeployment,identifyingtheneedforsystematicaggregation.
11.13.2 Technicalbioenergypotential
Thetechnicalbioenergypotential,alsoknownasthetechnicalprimarybiomasspotentialfor
bioenergy,istheamountofthetheoreticalbioenergyoutputobtainablebyfullimplementationof
demonstratedtechnologiesorpractices(IPCC,2011).Unfortunatelythereisnostandard
methodologytoestimatethetechnicalbioenergypotential,whichleadstodivergingestimates.
Mostoftherecentstudiesestimatingtechnicalbioenergypotentialsassumeafood/fibrefirst
principleandexcludedeforestation,eventuallyresultinginanestimateoftheenvironmentally
sustainablebioenergypotentialwhenacomprehensiverangeofenvironmentalconstraintsis
considered(Batidziraietal.,2012).
Recentlypublishedestimatesthatarebasedinthisextendeddefinitionofglobaltechnicalbioenergy
potentialsin2050spanarangeofalmostthreeordersofmagnitude,from<50EJ/yrto>1,000EJ/yr
(Smeetsetal.,2007;Fieldetal.,2008;Haberletal.,2010;Batidziraietal.,2012).Forexample,
SRRENreportedglobaltechnicalbioenergypotentialsof50500EJ/yrfortheyear2050(Chumetal.,
2011),andtheGlobalEnergyAssessmentgavearangeof160270EJ/yr(Johanssonetal.,2012).The
discussionfollowingthepublicationoftheseglobalreportshasnotresultedinaconsensusonthe
magnitudeofthefutureglobaltechnicalbioenergypotential,buthashelpedtobetterunderstand
someofitsmanystructuraldeterminants(Wirseniusetal.,2011;Berndes,2012;Erbetal.,2012a).
Howmuchbiomassforenergyistechnicallyavailableinthefuturedependsontheevolutionofa
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multitudeofsocial,political,andeconomicfactors,e.g.,landtenureandregulation,trade,and
technology(Dornburgetal.,2010).
Figure11.20showsestimatesoftheglobaltechnicalbioenergypotentialin2050byresource
categories.Rangeswereobtainedfromassessingalargenumberofstudiesbasedonafood/fibre
firstprincipleandvariousrestrictionsregardingresourcelimitationsandenvironmentalconcernsbut
noexplicitcostconsiderations(Hoogwijketal.,2005;Smeetsetal.,2007;SmeetsandFaaij,2007;
vanVuurenetal.,2009;Hakalaetal.,2009;Dornburgetal.,2010;Haberletal.,2010,2011a;Gregg
andSmith,2010;Chumetal.,2011;GEA,2012;Rogneretal.,2012)Moststudiesagreethatthe
technicalbioenergyin2050isatleastapproximately100EJ/yrwithsomemodellingassumptions
leadingtoestimatesexceeding500EJ/yr(Smeetsetal.,2007).Asstated,differentviewsabout
sustainabilityandsocioecologicalconstraintsleadtoverydifferentestimates,withsomestudies
reportingmuchlowerfigures.

Figure 11.20. Global Technical Bioenergy Potential by main resource category for the year 2050. The
figure shows the ranges in the estimates by major resource category of the global technical bioenergy
potential. The color grading is intended to show qualitatively the degree of agreement in the
estimates, from blue (large agreement in the literature) to purple (medium agreement) to red (small
agreement). In addition, reducing traditional biomass demand by increasing its use efficiency could
release the saved biomass for other energy purposes with large benefits from a sustainable
development perspective.
AsshowninFigure11.20,thetotaltechnicalbioenergypotentialiscomposedofseveralresource
categoriesthatdifferintermsoftheirabsolutepotential,thespanoftherangeswhichalsoreflect
therelativeagreement/disagreementintheliteratureandtheimplicationsofutilizingthem.
Regionaldifferenceswhicharenotaddressedherearealsoimportantastherelativesizeofeach
biomassresourcewithinthetotalpotentialanditsabsolutemagnitudevarywidelyacrosscountries
andworldregions.
ForestandAgricultureresidues.Forestresidues(SmeetsandFaaij,2007;Smeetsetal.,2007;
Dornburgetal.,2010;Haberletal.,2010;GreggandSmith,2010;Rogneretal.,2012)include
residuesfromsilviculturalthinningandlogging;woodprocessingresiduessuchassawdust,bark,and
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blackliquor;anddeadwoodfromnaturaldisturbances,suchasstormsandinsectoutbreaks
(irregularsource).Theuseoftheseresourcesisingeneralbeneficialandanyadversesideeffects
canbemitigatedbycontrollingresidueremovalratesconsideringbiodiversity,climate,topography,
andsoilfactors.Thereisaneartermtradeoff,particularlywithintemperateandborealregions,in
thatorganicmatterretainsorganicCforlongerifresiduesarelefttodecomposeslowlyinsteadof
beingusedforenergy.Agriculturalresidues (Smeetsetal.,2007;Hakalaetal.,2009;Haberletal.,
2010,2011a;GreggandSmith,2010;Chumetal.,2011;Rogneretal.,2012)includemanure,harvest
residues(e.g.,straw),andprocessingresidues(e.g.,ricehusksfromricemilling)andarealsoin
generalbeneficial.However,mitigatingpotentialadversesideeffectssuchasthelossofsoilC
associatedtoharvestingagricultureresiduesismorecomplexastheydependonthedifferentcrops,
climate,andsoilconditions(KochsiekandKnops,2012;Repoetal.,2012).Alternativeusesof
residues(bedding,useasfertilizer)needtobeconsidered.Residueshavevaryingcollectionand
processingcosts(inbothagricultureandforestry)dependingonresiduequalityanddispersal,with
secondaryresiduesoftenhavingthebenefitsofnotbeingdispersedandhavingrelativelyconstant
quality.Densificationandstoragetechnologieswouldenablecosteffectivecollectionsoverlarger
areas.Optimizationofcroprotationforfoodandbioenergyoutputandtheuseofresiduesinbiogas
plantsmayresultinhigherbioenergyyieldsfromresidueswithoutfoodenergycompetition.
Optimalforestharvestingisdefinedasthefractionofsustainableharvestlevels(oftensetequalto
netannualincrement)inforestsavailableforwoodextraction,whichisadditionaltotheprojected
biomassdemandforproducingotherforestproducts.Thisincludesbothbiomasssuitableforother
uses(e.g.,pulpandpaperproduction)andbiomassthatisnotusedcommercially(SmeetsandFaaij,
2007;Chumetal.,2011).Theresourcepotentialdependsonbothenvironmentalandsocio
economicfactors.Forexample,thechangeinforestmanagementandharvestingregimesdueto
bioenergydemanddependsonforestownershipandthestructureoftheassociatedforestindustry.
Also,theforestproductivityandCstockresponsetochangesinforestmanagementand
harvestingdependonthecharacteroftheforestecosystem,asshapedbyhistoricforest
managementandeventssuchasfires,storms,andinsectoutbreaks,butalsoonthemanagement
scheme(e.g.,includingreplantingafterharvest,soilprotection,recyclingofnutrients,andsoiltypes
(Jonkeretal.,2013;Lamersetal.,2013).Inparticular,optimizingforestmanagementformitigation
isacomplexissuewithmanyuncertaintiesandstillsubjecttoscientificdebate.Intensiveforest
managementactivitiesoftheearlytomidtwentiethcenturyaswellasotherfactorssuchas
recoveryfrompastoveruse,haveledtostrongforestCsinksinmanyOECDregions(Panetal.,2011;
Loudermilketal.,2013;Nabuursetal.,2013;Erbetal.,2013).However,thecapacityofthesesinks
isbeingreducedasforestsapproachsaturation(Smith,2005;Krner,2006;Guldeaetal.,2008;
Nabuursetal.,2013;Sections11.2.3,11.3.2).Activeforestmanagement,includingmanagementfor
bioenergy,isthereforeimportantforsustainingthestrengthoftheforestcarbonsinkwellintothe
future(Nabuursetal.,2007,2013;CanadellandRaupach,2008;Ciaisetal.,2008),although
countriesshouldrealizethatforsomeoldforestareas,conservingcarbonstocksmaybe
preferential,andthattheactivelymanagedforestsmayforsometime(decades)actassources.
Organicwastesincludewastefromhouseholdsandrestaurants,discardedwoodproductssuchas
paper,construction,anddemolitionwoodwaste,andwastewaterssuitableforanaerobicbiogas
production(Haberletal.,2010;GreggandSmith,2010).Organicwastemaybedispersedandalso
heterogeneousinqualitybutthehealthandenvironmentalgainsfromcollectionandproper
managementthroughcombustionoranaerobicdigestioncanbesignificant.Competitionwith
alternativeusesofthewastesmaylimitthisresourcepotential.
Dedicatedbiomassplantationsincludeannual(cereals,oil,andsugarcrops)andperennialplants
(e.g.,switchgrass,Miscanthus)andtreeplantations(bothcoppiceandsinglestemplantations(e.g.,
willow,poplar,eucalyptus,pine;(Hoogwijketal.,2005,2009;Smeetsetal.,2007;vanVuurenetal.,
2009;Dornburgetal.,2010;Wickeetal.,2011b;Haberletal.,2011a).Therangeofestimatesof
technicalbioenergypotentialsfromthatresourcein2050isparticularlylarge(<50to>500EJ/yr).
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Technicalbioenergypotentialsfromdedicatedbiomassplantationsaregenerallycalculatedby
multiplying(1)theareadeemedavailableforenergycropsby(2)theyieldperunitareaandyear
(Batidziraietal.,2012;Coelhoetal.,2012).Somestudieshaveidentifiedasizabletechnicalpotential
(upto100EJ)forbioenergyproductionusingmarginalanddegradedlands(e.g.,salineland)thatare
currentlynotinuseforfoodproductionorgrazing(Nijsenetal.,2012).However,howmuchlandis
reallyunusedandavailableiscontested(Erbetal.,2007;Haberletal.,2010;Coelhoetal.,2012).
Contrastingviewsonfuturetechnicalbioenergypotentialsfromdedicatedbiomassplantationscan
beexplainedbydifferencesinassumptionsregardingfeasiblefutureagriculturalcropyields,
livestockfeedingefficiency,landavailabilityforenergycropsandyieldsofenergycrops(Dornburget
al.,2010;Batidziraietal.,2012;Erbetal.,2012a).Mostscientistsagreethatincreasesinfoodcrop
yieldsandhigherfeedingefficienciesandlowerconsumptionofanimalproductsresultsinhigher
technicalbioenergypotential.Also,thereisalargeagreementthatcarefulpoliciesfor
implementationfocusedonlandusezoningapproaches(includingnatureconservationand
biodiversityprotection),multifunctionallanduse,integrationoffoodandenergyproduction,
avoidanceofdetrimentallivelihoodimpacts,e.g.,onlivestockgrazingandsubsistencefarming,and
considerationofequityissues,andsoundmanagementofimpactsonwatersystemsarecrucialfor
sustainablesolutions.
Reducedtraditionalbiomassdemand.Asubstantialquantityofbiomasswillbecomeavailablefor
modernapplicationsbyimprovingtheenduseefficiencyoftraditionalbiomassconsumptionfor
energy,mostlyinhouseholdsbutalsowithinsmallindustries(suchascharcoalkilns,brickkilns,etc.).
Traditionalbioenergyrepresentsapproximately15%oftotalglobalenergyuseand80%ofcurrent
bioenergyuse(35EJ/yr)andhelpsmeetingthecookingneedsof~2.6billionpeople(Chumetal.,
2011;IEA,2012b).Traditionalbioenergyusecoversseveralendusesincludingcooking,water,and
spaceheating,andsmallindustries(suchasbrickandpotterykilns,bakeries,andmanyothers).
Cookingisthedominantenduse;itismostlydoneinopenfiresandrudimentarystoves,with
approximately1020%conversionefficiency,leadingtoveryhighprimaryenergyconsumption.
Advancedwoodburningandbiogasstovescanpotentiallyreducebiomassfuelconsumptionby60%
ormore(Jetteretal.,2012)andfurtherlowertheatmosphericradiativeforcing,reducingCO2
emissions,andinmanycasesblackcarbonemissions,byupto90%(Anenbergetal.,2013).
Assumingthatactualsavingsreachonaveragefrom3060%ofcurrentconsumption,thetotal
bioenergypotentialfromreducingtraditionalbioenergydemandcanbeestimatedat818EJ/yr.An
unknownfractionofglobaltraditionalbiomassisconsumedinanonenvironmentallysustainable
way,leadingtoforestdegradationanddeforestation.Detailedcountrystudieshaveestimatedthe
fractionofnonrenewablebiomassfromtraditionalbioenergyusetovarywidely,e.g.,from1.6%for
theDemocraticRepublicofCongoto73%forBurundi(CDMSSCWG,2011)withmostcountriesin
therangebetween1030%(i.e.,meaningthat7090%oftotaltraditionalbioenergyuseismanaged
sustainably).Thusafractionofthetraditionalbiomasssavedthroughbettertechnology,shouldnot
beactuallyusedforotherenergypurposesbutsimplynotconsumedtohelprestorethelocal
ecosystems.
11.13.3 Bioenergyconversion:technologiesandmanagementpractices
Numerousconversiontechnologiescantransformbiomasstoheat,power,liquid,andgaseousfuels
foruseintheresidential,industrial,transport,andpowersectors(see(Chumetal.,2011;GEA,
2012)foracomprehensivecoverageofeachalternative,andFigure11.21forthepathways
concerningliquidandgaseousfuels).SinceSRREN,themajoradvancesinthelargescaleproduction
ofbioenergyincludetheincreasinguseofhybridbiomassfossilfuelsystems.Forexample,theuseof
currentcommercialcoalandbiomasscocombustiontechnologiesarethelowestcosttechnologyto
implementrenewableenergypolicies,enabledbythelargescalepelletizedfeedstockstrade
(REN21,2013;Jungingeretal.,2014).Directbiopoweruseisalsoincreasingcommerciallyonaglobal
scale(REN21,2013,p.21).Infact,usingbiomassforelectricityandheat,forexample,cofiringof
woodybiomasswithcoalintheneartermandlargeheatingsystemscoupledwithnetworksfor
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districtheating,andbiochemicalprocessingofwastebiomass,areamongthemostcostefficient
andeffectivebiomassapplicationsforGHGemissionreductioninmodernpathways(Sternerand
Fritsche,2011).
Integratedgasificationcombinedcycle(IGCC)technologiesforcoproductionofelectricityandliquid
fuelsfromcoalandbiomasswithhigherefficiencythancurrentcommercialprocessesarein
demonstrationphasetoreducecost(Williamsetal.,2011;GEA,2012;Larsonetal.,2012).Coupling
ofbiomassandnaturalgasforfuelsisanotheroptionforliquidfuels(Balibanetal.,2013)asthe
biomassgasificationtechnologydevelopmentprogresses.Simulationssuggestthatintegrated
gasificationfacilitiesaretechnicallyfeasible(withupto50%biomassinput;Meermanetal.,2011),
andeconomicallyattractivewithaCO2priceofabout66USD2010/tCO2(50EUR2010/tCO2)(Meerman
etal.,2012).Manygasificationtechnologydevelopmentsaroundtheworldareinpilot,
demonstration,operatingfirstcommercialscaleforavarietyofapplications(seeexamplesin
Bacovskyetal.,2013;Balanetal.,2013).
Manypathwaysandfeedstocks(Figure11.21)canleadtobiofuelsforaviation.Thedevelopmentof
biofuelstandardsstartedandenabledtestingof50%biofuelinjetfuelforcommercialdomesticand
transatlanticflightsbyconsortiaofgovernments,aviationindustry,andassociations(IEA,2010;
REN21,2013).Advanced'dropin'fuels,suchasisobutanol,syntheticaviationkerosenefrom
biomassgasificationorupgradingofpyrolysisliquids,canbederivedthroughanumberofpossible
conversionroutessuchashydrotreatmentofvegetableoils,isobutanol,andFischerTropsch
synthesisfromgasificationofbiomass(HamelinckandFaaij,2006;Bacovskyetal.,2010;Meerman
etal.,2011,2012;RosilloCalleetal.,2012);seealsoChapter8).Inspecificcases,poweringelectric
carswithelectricityfrombiomasshashigherlanduseefficiencyandlowerglobalwarmingpotential
(GWP)effectsthantheusageofbioethanolfrombiofuelcropsforroadtransportacrossarangeof
feedstocks,conversiontechnologies,andvehicleclasses(Campbelletal.,2009;Schmidtetal.,
2011)14,thoughcostsarelikelytoremainprohibitiveforconsiderabletime(vanVlietetal.,2011a;b;
Schmidtetal.,2011).
Thenumberofroutesfrombiomasstoabroadrangeofbiofuels,showninFigure11.21,includes
hydrocarbonsconnectingtodaysfossilfuelsindustryinfamiliarthermal/catalyticroutessuchas
gasification(Williamsetal.,2011;Larsonetal.,2012)andpyrolysis(Brownetal.,2011;Bridgwater,
2012;Elliott,2013;Meieretal.,2013).Inaddition,advancesingenomictechnology,theemphasisin
systemsapproach,andtheintegrationbetweenengineering,physics,chemistry,andbiologybring
togethermanynewapproachestobiomassconversion(LiaoandMessing,2012)suchas(1)
biomolecularengineering(Lietal.,2010;Favaroetal.,2012;PeraltaYahyaetal.,2012;Leeetal.,
2013;Yoonetal.,2013)deconstructionoflignocellulosicbiomassthroughcombinationsofmild
thermalandbiochemicalroutesinmultiplesequentialorconsolidatedstepsusingsimilar
biomolecularengineeringtools(Rubin,2008;Chundawatetal.,2011;Beckhametal.,2012;Olsonet
al.,2012;Tracyetal.,2012;SaddlerandKumar,2013;Kataevaetal.,2013);and(2)advancesin
(bio)catalysisandbasicunderstandingofthesynthesisofcelluloseareleadingtoroutesformany
fuelsandchemicalsundermildconditions(SerranoRuizetal.,2010;Carpita,2012;Shenetal.,2013;
Triantafyllidisetal.,2013;Yoonetal.,2013).Fundamentalunderstandingofbiofuelsproduction
increasedformicrobialgenomesbyforwardengineeringofcyanobacteria,microalgae,aimingto
arriveatminimumgenomesforsynthesisofbiofuelsorchemicals(ChenandBlankenship,2011;
Eckertetal.,2012;Ungereretal.,2012;JonesandMayfield,2012;Konturetal.,2012;Leeetal.,
2013).
14
Biomasscanbeusedforelectrictransportandbiofuelswithinonepathway(Macedoetal.,2008)
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Figure 11.21. Production pathways to liquid and gaseous fuels from biomass and, for comparison
from fossil fuels (adapted from GEA, 2012; Turkenburg et al., 2012).
BioenergycoupledwithCCS(SpathandMann,2004;Liuetal.,2010)isseenasanoptiontomitigate
climatechangethroughnegativeemissionsifCCScanbesuccessfullydeployed(CaoandCaldeira
2010;LentonandVaughan2009).BECCSfeaturesprominentlyinlongrunmitigationscenarios
(Sections6.3.2and6.3.5)fortworeasons:(1)Thepotentialfornegativeemissionsmayallowshifting
emissionsintime;and(2)inscenarios,negativeemissionsfromBECCScompensateforresidual
emissionsinothersectors(mostimportantlytransport)inthesecondhalfofthe21stcentury.As
illustratedinFigure11.22,BECCSismarkedlydifferentthanfossilCCSbecauseitnotonlyreduces
CO2emissionsbystoringCinlongtermgeologicalsinks,butitcontinuallysequestersCO2fromthe
airthroughregenerationofthebiomassresourcefeedstock.
BECCSdeploymentisinthedevelopmentandexplorationstages.ThemostrelevantBECCSprojectis
theIllinoisBasinDecaturProjectthatisprojectedtoinject1MtCO2/yr(GollakotaandMcDonald,
2012;SenelandChugunov,2013).IntheUnitedStates,twoethanolfuelproductionbyfermentation
facilitiesarecurrentlyintegratedcommerciallywithcarbondioxidecapture,pipelinetransport,and
useinenhancedoilrecoveryinnearbyfacilitiesatarateofabout0.2MtCO2/yr(DiPietroetal.,
2012).Altogether,thereare16globalBECCSprojectsinexplorationstage(KarlssonandBystrm,
2011).
CriticaltooverallCO2storageistherealizationofalignocellulosicbiomasssupplyinfrastructurefor
largescalecommodityfeedstockproductionandefficientadvancedconversiontechnologiesat
scale;bothbenefitfromcostreductionsandtechnologicallearningasdoestheintegratedsystem
withCCS,withfinancialandinstitutionalconditionsthatminimizetherisksofinvestmentand
facilitatedissemination(ErankiandDale,2011;IEA,2012c,2013).Integratedanalysisisneededto
capturesystemandknockoneffectsforbioenergypotentials.Anascentfeedstockinfrastructurefor
densifiedbiomasstradinggloballycouldindicatedecreasedpressureontheneedforcloselyco
locatedstorageandproduction(IEA,2011;Jungingeretal.,2014).
Theoveralltechnicalpotentialisestimatedtobearound10GtCO2storageperyearforboth
IntegratedGasificationCombinedCycle(IGCC)CCScofiring(IGCCwithcogasificationofbiomass),
andBiomassIntegratedGasificationCombinedCycle(BIGCC)CCSdedicated,andaround6GtCO2
storageforbiodieselbasedongasificationandFischerTropschsynthesis(FTdiesel),and2.7GtCO2
forbiomethaneproduction(Koornneefetal.,2012,2013).Anotherstudyestimatesthepotential
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capacity(similartotechnicalpotential)tobebetween2.4and10GtCO2peryearfor20302050
(McLaren,2012).Theeconomicpotential,ataCO2priceofaround70USD/tisestimatedtobe
around3.3GtCO2,3.5GtCO2,3.1GtCO2and0.8GtCO2inthecorrespondingfourcases,judgedtobe
thosewithhighesteconomicpotential(Koornneefetal.,2012,2013).Potentialsareassessedona
routebyroutebasisandcannotsimplybeadded,astheymaycompeteandsubstituteeachother.
Practicalfiguresmightbenotmuchhigherthan2.4GtCO2peryearat70250USD/tCO2(McLaren,
2012).Altogether,until2050,theeconomicpotentialisanywherebetween210GtCO2peryear.
Someclimatestabilizationscenariosseeconsiderablehigherdeploymenttowardstheendofthe
century,eveninsome580650ppmscenarios,operatingunderdifferenttimescales,socioeconomic
assumptions,technologyportfolios,CO2prices,andinterpretingBECCSaspartofanoverall
mitigationframework(e.g.,Roseetal.,2012;Kriegleretal.,2013;TavoniandSocolow,2013).
PossibleclimaterisksofBECCSrelatetoreductionoflandcarbonstock,feasiblescalesofbiomass
productionandincreasedN2Oemissions,andpotentialleakageofCO2,whichhasbeenstoredin
deepgeologicreservoirs(RhodesandKeith,2008).Theassumptionsofsufficientspatially
appropriateCCScapture,pipeline,andstorageinfrastructureareuncertain.Theliteraturehighlights
thatBECCSaswellasCCSdeploymentisdependentonstrongfinancialincentives,astheyarenot
costcompetitiveotherwise(Sections7.5.5;7.6.4;7.9;7.12).

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Figure 11.22. Illustration of the sum of CO2eq (GWP100)15 emissions from the process chain of
alternative transport and power generation technologies both with and without CCS. (*Differences in
C-density between forest biomass and switchgrass are taken into account but not calorific values
(balance-of-plant data are for switchgrass, ref. Larson et al., 2012). Specific emissions vary with
biomass feedstock and conversion technology combinations, as well as lifecycle GHG calculation
boundaries. For policy relevant purposes, counterfactual and market-mediated aspects (e.g., iLUC),
changes in soil organic carbon, or changes in surface albedo need also to be considered, possibly
leading to significantly different outcomes, quantitatively (Section 11.13.4, Figures 11.23 and
11.24). Unit: gCO2eq/MJEl (left y-axis, electricity); gCO2eq/MJ combusted (right y-axis, transport
fuels). Direct CO2 emissions from energy conversion (vented and stored) are adapted from the
mean values in Tables 12.7, 12.8, and 12.15 of ref. [1], which are based on the work of refs. [2, 3],
and characterized with the emission metrics in ref. [4]. Impacts upstream in the supply chain
associated with feedstock procurement (i.e., sum of GHGs from mining/cultivation, transport, etc.) are
adapted from refs. [5, 6] and Figure 11.23 (median values).
1
Larson, et al. (2012); 2Woods, et al., (2007) ; 3Liu et al. (2010); 4Guest et al. (2013); 5Turconi et al.
(2013); 6Jaramillo et al. (2008)
15
GlobalWarmingPotentialover100years.SeeGlossaryandSection1.2.5.
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Figure11.22illustratessomeGHGeffectsassociatedwithBECCSpathways.TradeoffsbetweenCO2
capturerateandfeedstockconversionefficiencyarepossible.Depictedarepathwayswiththe
highestremovalratebutnotnecessarilywiththehighestfeedstockconversionrate.Amongall
BECCSpathways,thosebasedonintegratedgasificationcombinedcycleproducemostsignificant
geologicstoragepotentialfrombiomass,alone(showninFigure11.23,electricity)orcoupledwith
coal.FischerTropschdieselfuelproductionwithbiomassasfeedstockandCCSattachedtoplant
facilitiescouldenableBECCSfortransport;uncertaintiesininputfactors,andoutputmetricswarrant
furtherresearch(vanVlietetal.,2009).FischerTropschdieselwouldalsoallownetremovalbutat
lowerratesthanBIGCC.
EconomicsofscaleinpowerplantsizearecrucialtoimproveeconomicviabilityofenvisagedBECCS
projects.Increasingpowerplantsizerequireshigherlogisticchallengesindeliveringbiomass.
Scalesof4,000to10,000Mg/dayneededfor>600MWpowerplantscouldbecomefeasibleasthe
biomassfeedstocksupplylogisticdevelopmentwithmanageablelogisticcostsifbiomassisderived
fromhighyieldmonocrops;logisticalcostsaremorechallengingwhenbiomassisderivedfrom
residues(e.g.,(Argoetal.,2013;Jungingeretal.,2014).Largescalebiomassproductionwithflexible
integratedpolygenerationfacilitiesforfuelsand/orpowercanimprovethetechnoeconomic
performance,currentlyabovemarketpricestobecomemoreeconomicallycompetitiveovertime
(Meermanetal.,2011).Inthefuture,increasedoperatingexperienceofBECCSIGCCCCSthrough
technologicalimprovementsandlearningcouldenablecarbonneutralelectricityand,in
combinationwithCCS,couldresultinnetremovalofCO2(Figure11.22).BECCSisamongthelowest
costCCSoptionsforanumberofkeyindustrialsectors(Meermanetal.,2013).Itshouldbenoted
thatprimaryempiriccostandperformancedatafordedicatedbioenergyplantsarenotyetavailable
andneededforcomprehensivelyassessingBECCS.ThecurrentstatusofCCSandongoingresearch
issuesarediscussedinSections7.5.5and7.6.4.Socialconcernsconstituteamajorbarrierfor
implementdemonstrationanddeploymentprojects.
Integratedbiorefineriescontinuetobedeveloped;forinstance,10%oftheethanolor
correspondingsugarstreamgoesintobioproductsinBrazil(REN21,2012)includingmaking
ethyleneforpolymers(IEAETSAPandIRENA,2013,p.).Multiproductbiorefineriescouldproduce
awidervarietyofcoproductstoenhancetheeconomicsoftheoverallprocess,facilitatinglearning
inthenewindustry(IEA,2011);LifecycleAnalyses(LCAs)forthesesystemsarecomplex(Pawelziket
al.,2013).
Therearealternativestolandbasedbioenergy.Microalgae,forexample,offerahighendtechnical
potential.However,itmightbecompromisedbywatersupply,ifproducedinaridland,orby
impactsonoceanecosystems.Tomakemicroalgaecostcompetitive,maximizingalgallipidcontent
(andthenmaximizinggrowthrate)requiretechnologicalbreakthroughs(Davisetal.,2011a;Sunet
al.,2011;JonkerandFaaij,2013).Themarketpotentialdependsonthecouseofproductsforfood,
fodder,highervalueproducts,andfuelmarkets(Chumetal.,2011).
Similarly,lignocellulosicfeedstocksproducedfromwasteorresidues,orgrownonlandunsupportive
offoodproduction(e.g.,contaminatedlandforremediationasinpreviouslyminedland)havebeen
suggestedtoreducesocioenvironmentalimpact.Inaddition,lignocellulosicfeedstockscanbebred
specificallyforenergypurposes,andcanbeharvestedbycouplingcollectionandpreprocessing
(densificationandothers)indepotspriortofinalconversion,whichcouldenabledeliveryofmore
uniformfeedstocksthroughouttheyear(ErankiandDale,2011;U.S.DOE,2011;Argoetal.,2013).
Variousconversionpathwaysareinresearchanddevelopment(R&D),nearcommercialization,orin
earlydeploymentstagesinseveralcountries(seeSection2.6.3inChumetal.,2011).More
productivelandisalsomoreeconomicallyattractiveforcellulosicfeedstocks,inwhichcase
competitionwithfoodproductionismorelikely.Dependingonthefeedstock,conversionprocess,
priorlanduse,andlanddemand,lignocellulosicbioenergycanbeassociatedwithhighorlowGHG
emissions(e.g.,Davisetal.,2011b).Improvingagriculturallandsandreducingnonpointpollution
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emissionstowatershedsremediatenitrogenrunoffandincreaseoverallecosystemshealth(Van
Dametal.,2009a;b;Gopalakrishnanetal.,2012).Alsoregenerationofsalinelandsbysalttolerant
treeandgrassspeciescanhavealargepotentialonglobalscaleasdemonstratedbyWickeetal.
(2011).
Arangeofagroecologicaloptionstoimproveagriculturalpracticessuchasno/lowtillage
conservation,agroforestry,etc.,havepotentialtoincreaseyields(e.g.,insubSaharanAfrica),while
alsoprovidingarangeofcobenefitssuchasincreasedsoilorganicmatter.Suchoptionsrequirea
muchlowerlevelofinvestmentandinputsandarethusmorereadilyapplicableindeveloping
countries,whilealsoholdingalowriskofincreasedGHGemissions(Keatingetal.,2013)(Keatinget
al.,2013).
Substantialprogresshasalsobeenachievedinthelastfouryearsinsmallscalebioenergy
applicationsintheareasoftechnologyinnovation,impactevaluationandmonitoring,andinlarge
scaleimplementationprogrammes.Forexample,advancedcombustionbiomasscookstoves,which
reducefuelusebymorethan60%andhazardouspollutantaswellasshortlivedclimatepollutants
byupto90%,arenowinthelastdemonstrationstagesorcommercial(Karetal.,2012;Anenberget
al.,2013).Innovativedesignsincludemicrogasifiers,stoveswiththermoelectricgeneratorsto
improvecombustionefficiencyandprovideelectricitytochargeLEDlampswhilecooking,stoves
withadvancedcombustionchamberdesigns,andmultiusestoves(e.g.,cookingandwaterheating
forbathing(rgeVorsatzetal.,2012;Anenbergetal.,2013).Biogasstoves,inadditiontoproviding
cleancombustion,helpreducethehealthrisksassociatedwiththedisposaloforganicwastes.There
hasalsobeenaboostincookstovedisseminationeffortsrangingfromregional(multicountry)
initiatives(Wangetal.,2013b)tonational,andprojectlevelinterventions.Intotal,morethan200
cookstovelargescaleprojectsareinplaceworldwide,withseveralmillionefficientcookstoves
installedeachyear(Cordes,2011).AGlobalAllianceforCleanCookstoveshasbeenlaunchedthatis
promotingtheadoptionof100millioncleanandefficientcookstovesperyearby2030andseveral
countrieshavelaunchedNationalCookstoveProgramsinrecentyears(e.g.,Mexico,Peru,Honduras,
andothers).Manycookstovemodelsarenowmanufacturedinlargescaleindustrialfacilitiesusing
stateoftheartmaterialsandcombustiondesigntechnology.Significanteffortsarealsoinplaceto
developinternationalstandardsandregionalstovetestingfacilities.Inadditiontoprovidingtangible
localhealthandothersustainablebenefits,replacingtraditionalopenfireswithefficientbiomass
cookstoveshasaglobalmitigationpotentialestimatedinbetween0.6and2.4GtCO2eq/yr(rge
Vorsatzetal.,2012).
Smallscaledecentralizedbiomasspowergenerationsystemsbasedonbiomasscombustionand
gasificationandbiogasproductionsystemshavethepotentialtomeettheelectricityneedsofrural
communitiesinthedevelopingcountries.Thebiomassfeedstocksforthesesmallscalesystems
couldcomefromresiduesofcropsandforests,wastesfromlivestockproduction,and/orfromsmall
scaleenergyplantations(Faaij,2006).
11.13.4 GHGemissionestimatesofbioenergyproductionsystems
ThecombustionofbiomassgeneratesgrossGHGemissionsroughlyequivalenttothecombustionof
fossilfuels.Ifbioenergyproductionistogenerateanetreductioninemissions,itmustdosoby
offsettingthoseemissionsthroughincreasednetcarbonuptakeofbiotaandsoils.Theappropriate
comparisonisthenbetweenthenetbiospherefluxintheabsenceofbioenergycomparedtothenet
biospherefluxinthepresenceofbioenergyproduction.Directandindirecteffectsneedtobe
consideredincalculatingthesefluxes.
Bioenergysystemsdirectlyinfluencelocalandglobalclimatethrough(i)GHGemissionsfromfossil
fuelsassociatedwithbiomassproduction,harvest,transport,andconversiontosecondaryenergy
carriers(vonBlottnitzandCurran,2007;vanderVoetetal.,2010);(ii)CO2andotherGHGemissions
frombiomassorbiofuelcombustion(Cherubinietal.,2011);(iii)atmosphereecosystemexchanges
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ofCO2followinglanddisturbance(Berndesetal.,2013;Haberl,2013);(iv)climateforcingresulting
fromemissionsofshortlivedGHGslikeblackcarbonandotherchemicallyactivegases(NOx,CO,
etc.)(Tsaoetal.,2012;Jetteretal.,2012);(v)climateforcingresultingfromalterationofbiophysical
propertiesofthelandsurfaceaffectingthesurfaceenergybalance(e.g.,fromchangesinsurface
albedo,heatandwaterfluxes,surfaceroughness,etc.;(Bonan,2008;Westetal.,2010a;PielkeSr.et
al.,2011);and(vi)GHGsfromlandmanagementandperturbationstosoilbiogeochemistry,e.g.,N2O
fromfertilizers,CH4,etc.(Cai,2001;Allenetal.,2009).Indirecteffectsincludethepartialor
completesubstitutionoffossilfuelsandtheindirecttransformationoflandusebyequilibrium
effects.Hence,thetotalclimateforcingofbioenergydependsonfeedstock,sitespecificclimateand
ecosystems,managementconditions,productionpathway,enduse,andontheinterdependencies
withenergyandlandmarkets.
Incontrast,bioenergysystemshaveoftenbeenassessed(e.g.,inLCAstudies,integratedmodels,
policydirectives,etc.)undertheassumptionthattheCO2emittedfrombiomasscombustionis
climateneutral16becausethecarbonthatwaspreviouslysequesteredfromtheatmospherewillbe
resequesteredifthebioenergysystemismanagedsustainably(Chumetal.,2011;Creutzigetal.,
2012).Theshortcomingsofthisassumptionhavebeenextensivelydiscussedinenvironmental
impactstudiesandemissionaccountingmechanisms(Searchingeretal.,2009;Searchinger,2010;
Cherubinietal.,2011;Haberl,2013).
Studiesalsocallforaconsistentandcasespecificcarbonstock/fluxchangeaccountingthat
integratesthebiomasssystemwiththeglobalcarboncycle(Mackeyetal.,2013).Asshownin
Chapter8ofWGI(MyhreandShindell,2013)and(Plattneretal.,2009;Fuglestvedtetal.,2010),the
climateimpactscanbequantifiedatdifferentpointsalongacauseeffectchain,fromemissionsto
changesintemperatureandsealevelrise.WhileasimplesumofthenetCO2fluxesovertimecan
informabouttheskewedtimedistributionbetweensourcesandsinks(Cdebt;(Marlandand
Schlamadinger,1995;Fargioneetal.,2008;BernierandPar,2013),understandingtheclimate
implicationasitrelatestopolicytargets(e.g.,limitingwarmingto2C)requiresmodelsand/or
metricsthatalsoincludetemperatureeffectsandclimateconsequence(Smithetal.,2012c;Tanaka
etal.,2013).Whilethewarmingfromfossilfuelsisnearlypermanentasitpersistsforthousandsof
years,directimpactsfromrenewablebioenergysystemscauseaperturbationinglobaltemperature
thatistemporaryandevenattimescoolingifterrestrialcarbonstocksarenotdepleted(Houseet
al.,2002;Cherubinietal.,2013;Joosetal.,2013;Mackeyetal.,2013).Thedirect,physicalclimate
effectsatvariousendpointsneedtobefullyunderstoodandcharacterizeddespitethe
measurementchallengesthatsomeclimateforcingmechanismscanentail(Westetal.,2010b;
AndersonTeixeiraetal.,2012),andcoherentlyembeddedinmitigationpolicyscenariosalongwith
thepossiblecounterfactualeffects.Forexample,inthespecificcaseofexistingforeststhatmay
continuetogrowifnotusedforbioenergy,somestudiesemployingcounterfactualbaselinesshow
thatforestbioenergysystemscantemporarilyhavehighercumulativeCO2emissionsthanafossil
referencesystem(foratimeperiodrangingfromafewdecadesuptoseveralcenturies;(Repoetal.,
2011;Mitchelletal.,2012;Pingoudetal.,2012;BernierandPar,2013;Guestetal.,2013;Helinet
al.,2013;Holtsmark,2013).
16
TheneutralityperceptionislinkedtoamisunderstandingoftheguidelinesforGHGinventories,e.g.,IPCC
LandUse,LandUseChangeandForestry(2000)statesBiomassfuelsareincludedinthenationalenergyand
carbondioxideemissionsaccountsforinformationalpurposesonly.Withintheenergymodulebiomass
consumptionisassumedtoequalitsregrowth.Anydeparturesfromthishypothesisarecountedwithinthe
LandUseChangeandForestryModel.CarbonneutralityisvalidifthecountriesaccountforLUCintheir
inventoriesforselfproducedbioenergy.
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Insomecases,coolingcontributionsfromchangesinsurfacealbedocanmitigateoroffsetthese
effects(AroraandMontenegro,2011;OHalloranetal.,2012;AndersonTeixeiraetal.,2012;
Hallgrenetal.,2013).
Accountingalwaysdependsonthetimehorizonadoptedwhenassessingclimatechangeimpacts,
andtheassumedbaseline,andhenceincludesvaluejudgements(Schwietzkeetal.,2011;Cherubini
etal.,2013;KlverprisandMueller,2013).
Twospecificcontributionstotheclimateforcingofbioenergy,notaddressedindetailinSRREN
includeN2Oandbiogeophysicalfactors.
Nitrousoxideemissions:Forfirstgenerationcropbasedbiofuels,aswithfoodcrops(seeChapter
11),emissionsofN2OfromagriculturalsoilsisthesinglelargestcontributortodirectlifecycleGHG
emissions,andoneofthelargestcontributorsacrossmanybiofuelproductioncycles(Smeetsetal.,
2009a;Hsuetal.,2010).Emissionratescanvarybyasmuchas700%betweendifferentcroptypes
forthesamesite,fertilizationrate,andmeasurementperiod(KaiserandRuser,2000;Donetal.,
2012;Yangetal.,2012).IncreasedestimatesofN2Oemissionsalonecanconvertsomebiofuel
systemsfromapparentnetsinkstonetsources(Crutzenetal.,2007;Smithetal.,2012c).
Improvementsinnitrogenuseefficiencyandnitrogeninhibitorscansubstantiallyreduceemissions
ofN2O(RobertsonandVitousek,2009).Forsomespecificcrops,suchassugarcane,N2Oemissions
canbelow(Macedoetal.,2008;Seabraetal.,2011)orhigh(Lisboaetal.,2011).Otherbioenergy
cropsrequireminimalorzeroNfertilizationandcanreduceGHGemissionsrelativetotheformer
landusewheretheyreplaceconventionalfoodcrops(Clairetal.,2008).
Biogeophysicalfactors:Landcoverchangesorlandusedisturbancesofthesurfaceenergybalance,
suchassurfacealbedo,surfaceroughness,andevapotranspirationinfluencetheclimatesystem
(Betts,2001;Marlandetal.,2003;Bettsetal.,2007;Bonan,2008;Jacksonetal.,2008;Mahmoodet
al.,2013).Perturbationstothesecanleadtobothdirectandindirectclimateforcingswhoseimpacts
candifferinspatialextent(globaland/orlocal)(Balaetal.,2007;Davinetal.,2007).Surfacealbedo
isfoundtobethedominantdirectbiogeophysicalclimateimpactmechanismlinkedtolandcover
changeattheglobalscale,especiallyinareaswithseasonalsnowcover(Claussenetal.,2001;
Bathianyetal.,2010),withradiativeforcingeffectspossiblystrongerthanthoseofthecooccuring
Ccyclechanges(Randersonetal.,2006;Lohilaetal.,2010;Brightetal.,2011;Cherubinietal.,2012;
OHalloranetal.,2012).Landcoverchangescanalsoaffectotherbiogeophysicalfactorslike
evapotranspirationandsurfaceroughness,whichcanhaveimportantlocal(Loarieetal.,2011;
Georgescuetal.,2011)andglobalclimaticconsequences(Balaetal.,2007;Swannetal.,2010,
2011).Biogeophysicalclimateimpactsfromchangesinlandusearesitespecificandshowvariations
inmagnitudeacrossdifferentgeographicregionsandbiomes(Bonan,2008;Anderson,2010;Pielke
Sr.etal.,2011;AndersonTeixeiraetal.,2012).Biogeophysicalimpactsshouldbeconsideredin
climateimpactassessmentsandinthedesignoflandusepoliciestoadequatelyassessthenet
impactsoflandusemitigationoptions(Jacksonetal.,2008;Betts,2011;AroraandMontenegro,
2011)astheirsizemaybecomparabletoimpactsfromchangestotheCcycle.
Figure11.23illustratestherangeoflifecycleglobaldirectclimateimpact(ingCO2equivalentsper
MJ,aftercharacterizationwithGWPtimehorizon=100years)attributedtomajorglobalbioenergy
productsreportedinthepeerreviewedliteratureafter2010.Resultsarebroadlycomparableto
thoseofChapter2inSRREN(Figures2.10and2.11inSRREN;Chumetal.,2011)Thosefigures
displayednegativeemissions,resultingfromcreditingemissionreductionduetosubstitutioneffects.
Thisappendixrefrainsfromallocatingcreditstofeedstockstoavoiddoubleaccounting.
Significantvariationintheresultsreflectsthewiderangeofconversiontechnologiesandthe
reportedperformancesinadditiontoanalystassumptionsaffectingsystemboundarycompleteness,
emissioninventorycompleteness,andchoiceofallocationmethod(amongothers).Additionalsite
specificlanduseconsiderationssuchaschangesinsoilorganiccarbonstocks(SOC),changesin
surfacealbedo(albedo),andtheskewedtimedistributionofterrestrialbiogenicCO2fluxescan
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eitherreduceorcompoundlanduseimpactsandarepresentedtoexemplifythat,forsome
bioenergysystems,theseimpactscanbegreaterinmagnitudethanlifecycleimpactsfromfeedstock
cultivationandbioenergyproductconversion.Sitespecificlanduseconsiderationsare
geographicallyexplicitandhighlysensitivetobackgroundclimateconditions,soilproperties,
biomassyields,andlandmanagementregimes.Thefigurerevealsthatstudiesfindverydifferent
valuesdependingontheboundariesofanalysischosen,sitespecificeffects,andmanagement
methods.Nonetheless,itisclearthatfuelsfromsugarcane,perennialgrasses,cropresidues,and
wastecookingoilaremorebeneficialthanotherfuels(LUCemissionscanstillberelevant,seeFigure
11.23).AnotherimportantresultisthatalbedoeffectsandsitespecificCO2fluxesarehighlyvariable
fordifferentforestsystemsandenvironmentalconditionsanddeterminethetotalclimateforcingof
bioenergyfromforestry.

Figure 11.23. Direct CO2eq (GWP100) emissions from the process chain or land-use disturbances of
major bioenergy product systems, not including impacts from LUC (see Figure 11.24). The
interpretation of values depends also on baseline assumption about the land carbon sink when
appropriate and the intertemporal accounting frame chosen, and should also consider information
from Figure 11.24. The lower and upper bounds of the bars represent the minimum and the maximum
value reported in the literature. Whenever possible, peer-reviewed scientific literature published post
SRREN is used (but results are comparable). Note that narrow ranges may be an artefact of the
number of studies for a given case. Results are disaggregated in a manner showing the impact of
Feedstock production (in gCO2eq/MJ lowerheatingvalue(LHV) of feedstock) and the contributions
from end product/conversion technology. Results from conversion into final energy products Heat,
Power, and Transport fuels include the contribution from Feedstock production and are shown in
gCO2eq/MJ of final product. For some pathways, additional site-specific climate forcing agents apply
and are presented as separate values to be added or subtracted from the value indicated by the
median in the Feedstock bar (dark grey). Final products are also affected by these factors, but this is
not displayed here. References: Corn 17; Oil crops 1, 8, 812; Crop residues 1, 4, 1324;
Sugarcane 2, 3, 5, 6, 2527; Palm Oil 2, 3, 10, 2831; Perennial grasses 1, 3, 11, 18, 22, 3240;
Short Rotation Woody Crops 1, 3, 6, 12, 22, 33, 35, 37, 38, 4153; Forestry 5, 6, 38, 49, 5466;
Biogas, open storage: 6769; Biogas, closed storage 6971; Waste cooking oil: 22, 7274. Note that
the biofuels technologies for transport from lignocellulosic feedstocks, short rotation woody crops, and
crop residues, including collection and delivery, are developing so larger ranges are expected than for
more mature commercial technologies such as sugarcane ethanol and waste cooking oil (WCO)
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biodiesel. The biogas electricity bar represents scenarios using LCAs to explore treating mixtures of a
variety of lignocellulosic feedstocks (e.g., ensiled grain or agricultural residues or perennial grasses)
with more easily biodegradable wastes (e.g., from animal husbandry), to optimize multiple outputs.
Some of the scenarios assume CH4 leakage, which leads to very high lifecycle emissions.
1
Gelfand et al. (2013); 2Nemecek et al. (2012); 3Hoefnagels et al. (2010); 4Kaufman et al. (2010); 5Cherubini et al.
6 7 8 9 10
(2009); Cherubini (2012); Wang et al. (2011b); Milazzo et al. (2013); Goglio et al. (2012); Stratton et al.
(2011); 11Fazio and Monti (2011); 12Brjesson and Tufvesson (2011); 13Cherubini and Ulgiati (2010); 14Li et al.
15 16 17 18
(2012); Luo et al. (2009); Gabrielle and Gagnaire (2008); Smith et al. (2012b); Anderson-Teixeira et al.
(2009); 19Nguyen et al. (2013); 20Searcy and Flynn (2008); 21Giuntoli et al. (2013); 22Whitaker et al. (2010);
23
Wang et al. (2013a); 24Patrizi et al. (2013); 25Souza et al. (2012a); 26Seabra et al. (2011); 27Walter et al. (2011);
28
Choo et al. (2011); 29Harsono et al. (2012); 30Siangjaeo et al. (2011); 31Silalertruksa and Gheewala (2012);
32
Smeets et al. (2009b); 33Tiwary and Colls (2010); 34Wilson et al. (2011); 35Brando et al. (2011); 36Cherubini
37 38 39 40
and Jungmeier (2010); Don et al. (2012); Pucker et al. (2012); Monti et al. (2012); Bai et al. (2010);
41
Bacenetti et al. (2012); 42Budsberg et al. (2012); 43Gonzlez-Garca et al. (2012a); 44Gonzlez-Garca (2012b) ;
45
Stephenson et al. (2010); 46Hennig and Gawor (2012);47Buonocore et al. (2012); 48Gabrielle et al. (2013);
49
Dias and Arroja (2012); 50Gonzlez-Garca et al. (2012b); 51Roedl (2010); 52Djomo et al. (2011); 53Njakou
54 55 56 57
Djomo et al. (2013); McKechnie et al. (2011); Pa et al. (2012); Puettmann et al. (2010); Guest et al. (2011);
58 59 60 61
Valente et al. (2011); Whittaker et al. (2011); Bright and Strmman (2009); Felder and Dones (2007);
62
Solli et al. (2009); 63Lindholm et al. (2011); 64Mallia and Lewis (2013); 65Bright et al. (2010); 66Bright and
Strmman (2010); 67Rehl et al. (2012); 68Blengini et al. (2011); 69Boulamanti et al. (2013); 70Lansche and Mller
71 72 73 74
(2012); De Meester et al. (2012); Sunde et al. (2011); Thamsiriroj and Murphy (2011); Talens Peir et al.
(2010)
Directandindirectlandusechange:Directlandusechangeoccurswhenbioenergycropsdisplace
othercropsorpasturesorforests,whileILUCresultsfrombioenergydeploymenttriggeringthe
conversiontocroplandoflands,somewhereontheglobe,toreplacesomeportionofthedisplaced
crops(Searchingeretal.,2008;Klverprisetal.,2008;Delucchi,2010;Herteletal.,2010).DirectLUC
toestablishbiomasscroppingsystemscanincreasethenetGHGemissions,forexample,ifcarbon
richecosystemssuchaswetlands,forests,ornaturalgrasslandsarebroughtintocultivation(Gibbs
etal.,2008;UNEP,2009,p.2009;Chumetal.,2011).BiosphericClossesassociatedwithLUCfrom
somebioenergyschemescanbe,insomecases,morethanhundredtimeslargerthantheannual
GHGsavingsfromtheassumedfossilfuelreplacement(Gibbsetal.,2008;Chumetal.,2011).
Impactshavebeenshowntobesignificantlyreducedwhenadynamicbaselineincludesfuture
trendsinglobalagriculturallanduse(KlverprisandMueller,2013).Albeitatlowermagnitude,
beneficialLUCeffectscanalsobeobserved,forexample,whensomesemiperennialcrops,
perennialgrassesorwoodyplantsreplaceannualcropsgrownwithhighfertilizerlevels,orwhere
suchplantsareproducedonlandswithcarbonpoorsoils(Tilmanetal.,2006;Harperetal.,2010;
SternerandFritsche,2011;Sochackietal.,2012).Inparticular,Miscanthusimprovessoilorganic
carbonreducingoverallGHGemissions(Brandoetal.,2011);degradedUSAMidwestlandfor
economicagriculture,overa20yearperiod,showssuccessionalperennialcropswithouttheinitial
carbondebtandindirectlandusecostsassociatedwithfoodbasedbiofuels(Gelfandetal.,2013).
Palmoil,whengrownonmoremarginalgrasslands,candeliveragoodGHGbalanceandnetcarbon
storageinsoil(Wickeetal.,2008).Suchlandsrepresentasubstantialpotentialforpalmoil
expansioninIndonesiawithoutdeforestationanddrainingpeatlands(Wickeetal.,2011a).
Inlongtermrotationforests,theincreasedremovalofbiomassforbioenergymaybebeneficialor
notdependingonthesitespecificforestconditions(Cherubinietal.,2012b).Forlongtermrotation
biomass,thecarbondebt(increasedcumulativeCO2emissionsforadurationintheorderofa
rotationcycleorlonger)becomesincreasinglyimportant(SchlamadingerandMarland,1996;
MarlandandSchlamadinger,1997;Fargioneetal.,2008;McKechnieetal.,2011;Hudiburgetal.,
2011).CalculationsofspecificGHGemissionsfromlongtermrotationforestsneedtoaccountfor
theforegoneCO2accumulation(Searchinger,2010;Holtsmark,2012;Pingoudetal.,2012;Haberlet
al.,2012).
Ifpartofalargerforestisusedasafeedstockforbioenergywhiletheoverallforestcarbonstock
increases(thesocalledlandscapeperspective),thentheoverallmitigationeffectsispositive,in
particularoverseveralharvestingcyclesmakinguseofthefastercarbonsequestrationratesof
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youngerforests(Daigneaultetal.,2012;Ximenesetal.,2012;LamersandJunginger,2013;Lattaet
al.,2013).(Nabuursetal.,2013),observefirstsignsofacarbonsinksaturationinEuropeanforest
biomassandsuggesttofocuslessontheforestbiomasssinkstrengthbuttoconsideramitigation
strategythatmaximizesthesumofallthepossiblecomponents:(1)carbonsequestrationinforest
biomass;(2)soilandwoodproducts;and(3)theeffectsofmaterialandenergysubstitutionof
woodybiomass.Ingeneral,theuseofeasilydecomposableresiduesandwastesforbioenergycan
produceGHGbenefits(Zanchietal.,2012),similarlytoincreasingthebiomassouttakefromforests
affectedbyhighmortalityrates(Lamersetal.,2013),whereastheremovalofslowlydecomposing
residuesreducessoilcarbonaccumulationatasiteandresultsinnetemissions(Repoetal.,2011).
Theanticipationoffuturebioenergymarketsmaypromoteoptimizedforestmanagementpractices
orafforestationofmarginallandareastoestablishmanagedplantations,socontributingto
increasedforestcarbonstocks(SedjoandTian,2012).Ratherthanleadingtowidescalelossof
forestlands,growingmarketsfortreeproductscanprovideincentivesformaintainingorincreasing
foreststocksandlandcovers,andimprovingforesthealththroughmanagement(Eisenbiesetal.,
2009;Daleetal.,2013).IfmanagedtomaximizeCO2storagerateoverthelongterm,longterm
rotationforestsofferlowcostmitigationoptions,inparticular,whenwoodyproductskeepcarbon
withinthehumanbuiltenvironmentoverlongtimescales(e.g.,woodsubstitutingforsteeljoist;
(Lippkeetal.,2011).
Indirectlandusechangeisdifficulttoascertainbecausethemagnitudeoftheseeffectsmustbe
modelled(Nassaretal.,2011)raisingimportantquestionsaboutmodelvalidityanduncertainty
(LiskaandPerrin,2009;Plevinetal.,2010;Khannaetal.,2011;GawelandLudwig,2011;Wickeet
al.,2012)andpolicyimplications(DeCicco,2013;Finkbeiner,2013;Plevinetal.,2013).Available
modelbasedstudieshaveconsistentlyfoundpositiveand,insomecases,highemissionsfromLUC
andILUC,mostlyoffirstgenerationbiofuels(Figure11.23),albeitwithhighvariabilityand
uncertaintyinresults(Herteletal.,2010;Taheripouretal.,2011;Dumortieretal.,2011;Havlket
al.,2011;Chenetal.,2012;Timilsinaetal.,2012;Warneretal.,2013).Causesofthegreat
uncertaintyinclude:incompleteknowledgeonglobaleconomicdynamics(tradepatterns,landuse
productivity,diets,useofbyproducts,fuelprices,andelasticities);selectionofspecificpolicies
modelled;andthetreatmentofemissionsovertime(OHareetal.,2009;Khannaetal.,2011;Wicke
etal.,2012).Inaddition,LUCmodellingphilosophiesandmodelstructuresandfeatures(e.g.,
dynamicvs.staticmodel)differamongstudies.VariationsinestimatedGHGemissionsfrombiofuel
inducedLUCarealsodrivenbydifferencesinscenariosassessed,varyingassumptions,inconsistent
definitionsacrossmodels(e.g.,LUC,landtype),specificselectionofreferencescenariosagainst
which(marginal)LUCisquantified,anddisparitiesindataavailabilityandquality.Thegenerallackof
thoroughsensitivityanduncertaintyanalysishamperstheevaluationofplausiblerangesof
estimatesofGHGemissionsfromLUC.
Wickeetal.(2012)identifiedtheneedtoincorporatetheimpactsofILUCpreventionormitigation
strategiesinfuturemodellingefforts,includingtheimpactofzoningandprotectionofcarbonstocks,
selectivesourcingfromlowriskareas,policiesandinvestmentstoimproveagriculturalproductivity,
doublecropping,agroforestryschemes,andthe(improved)useofdegradedandmarginallands(see
Box7.1).IndirectlandusechangeismostlyavoidedinthemodelledmitigationpathwaysinChapter
6.Therelativelylimitedfuelcoverageintheliteratureprecludesacompletesetofdirect
comparisonsacrossalternativeandconventionalfuelssoughtbyregulatorybodiesandresearchers.
GHGemissionsfromLUCcanbereduced,forinstancethroughproductionofbioenergycoproducts
thatdisplaceadditionalfeedstockrequirements,thusdecreasingthenetareaneeded(e.g.,forcorn,
Wangetal.,2011a;forwheat,(Berndesetal.,2011).Propermanagementoflivestockand
agriculturecanleadtoimprovedresourceefficiency,lowerGHGemissions,andlowerlandusewhile
releasinglandforbioenergyproductionasdemonstratedforEurope(deWitetal.,2013)and
Mozambique(vanderHilstetal.,2012b).Forlandtransport,cellulosicbiomass,suchasMiscanthus,
hasbeensuggestedasarelativelylowcarbonsourceforbioethanolthatcouldbeproducedatscale,
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butonlyifILUCcanbeavoidedbynotdisplacingfoodandothercommoditiesandifcomprehensive
nationallandmanagementstrategiesaredeveloped(e.g.,Dornburgetal.,2010;Scownetal.,2012).
NegativeILUCvaluesaretheoreticallypossible(RFA,2008).Producingbiofuelsfromwastesand
sustainablyharvestedresidues,andreplacingfirstgenerationbiofuelfeedstockswithlignocellulosic
crops(e.g.,grasses)wouldinducelittleornoiLUC(Davisetal.,2011b;Scownetal.,2012).While
ILUCquantificationsremainuncertain,loweragriculturalyields,landintensivediets,andlivestock
feedingefficiencies,strongerclimateimpactsandhigherenergycropproductionlevelscanresultin
higherLUCrelatedGHGemissions.Strongglobalandregionalgovernance(forestprotection,
zoning),technologicalchangeinagricultureandbiobasedoptions,andhighyieldbioenergycrops
anduseofresiduesanddegradedland(ifavailable)couldallreduceiLUC(VanDametal.,2009a;b;
Wickeetal.,2009;Fischeretal.,2010;deWitetal.,2011,2013;vanderHilstetal.,2012a;Roseet
al.,2013).Aswithanyotherrenewablefuel,bioenergycanreplaceorcomplementfossilfuel.The
fossilfuelreplacementeffect,relevantwhenaglobalcaponCO2emissionsisabsent,isdiscussedin
Chapter8.7.IndirecteffectsarenotrestrictedtoindirectGHGeffectsofproductionofbiomassin
agriculturalsystems;therearealsoindirect(marketmediated)effectsofwoodenergy,butalso
effectsintermsofbiodiversitythreats,environmentaldegradation,andexternalsocialcosts,which
arenotconsideredhere.
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Figure 11.24. Estimates of GHGLUC emissions GHG emissions from biofuel production-induced
LUC (as gCO2eq/MJfuel produced) over a 30-year time horizon organized by fuel(s), feedstock, and
study. Assessment methods, LUC estimate types and uncertainty metrics are portrayed to
demonstrate the diversity in approaches and differences in results within and across any given
category. Points labeled a on the Y-axis represent a commonly used estimate of lifecycle GHG
emissions associated with the direct supply chain of petroleum gasoline (frame A) and diesel (frame
B). These emissions are not directly comparable to GHGLUC because the emission sources
considered are different, but are potentially of interest for scaling comparison. Based on Warner et al.
(2013). Please note: These estimates of global LUC are highly uncertain, unobservable, unverifiable,
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and dependent on assumed policy, economic contexts, and inputs used in the modelling. All entries
are not equally valid nor do they attempt to measure the same metric despite the use of similar
naming conventions (e.g., ILUC). In addition, many different approaches to estimating GHGLUC have
been used. Therefore, each paper has its own interpretation and any comparisons should be made
only after careful consideration. *CO2eq includes studies both with and without CH4 and N2O
accounting.
11.13.5 Aggregatefuturepotentialdeploymentinintegratedmodels
InSRRENscenarios(IPCC,2011),bioenergyisprojectedtocontribute80190EJ/yrtoglobalprimary
energysupplyby2050for50%ofthescenariosinthetwomitigationlevelsmodelled.Theminto
maxrangeswere20265EJ/yrforthelessstringentscenariosand25300EJforthetightmitigation
scenarios(<440ppm).ManyofthesescenarioscoupledbioenergywithCCS.TheGlobalEnergy
Assessment(GEA,2012)scenariosproject80140EJby2050,includingextensiveuseofagricultural
residuesandsecondgenerationbioenergytotrytoreducetheadverseimpactsonlanduseand
foodproduction,andthecoprocessingofbiomasswithcoalornaturalgaswithCCStomakelownet
GHGemittingtransportfuelsandorelectricity.
Traditionalbiomassdemandissteadyordeclinesinmostscenariosfrom34EJ/yr.Thetransport
sectorincreasesnearlytenfoldfrom2008to1820EJ/yrwhilemodernusesforheat,power,
combinations,andindustryincreasebyfactorsof24from18EJin2008(Fischedicketal.,2011).
The2010InternationalEnergyAgency(IEA)modelprojectsacontributionof12EJ/yr(11%)by2035
tothetransportsector,including60%ofadvancedbiofuelsforroadandaviation.Bioenergysupplies
5%ofglobalpowergenerationin2035,upfrom1%in2008.Modernheatandindustrydoublestheir
contributionsfrom2008(IEA,2010).Thefuturepotentialdeploymentlevelvariesattheglobaland
nationalleveldependingonthetechnologicaldevelopments,landavailability,financialviability,and
mitigationpolicies.
TheAR5transformationpathwaystudiessuggestthatmodernbioenergycouldplayasignificantrole
withintheenergysystem(Section6.3.5)providing5to95EJ/yrin2030,10to245EJ/yrin2050,and
105to325EJ/yrin2100underidealizedfullimplementationscenarios(seealsoFigure7.12),with
immediate,global,andcomprehensiveincentivesforlandrelatedmitigationoptions.Thescenarios
projectincreasingdeploymentofbioenergywithtighterclimatechangetargets,bothinagivenyear
aswellasearlierintime(seeFigure6.20).Modelsprojectincreaseddependence,aswellas
increaseddeployment,ofmodernbioenergy,withsomemodelsprojecting35%oftotalprimary
energyfrombioenergyin2050,andasmuchas50%oftotalprimaryenergyfrommodernbioenergy
in2100.Bioenergysshareofregionaltotalelectricityandliquidfuelscouldbesignificantupto
35%ofglobalregionalelectricityfrombiopowerby2050,andupto70%ofglobalregionalliquid
fuelsfrombiofuelsby2050.However,thecosteffectiveallocationofbioenergywithintheenergy
systemvariesacrossmodels.Severalsectoralstudies,focusingonbiophysicalconstraints,model
assumptions(e.g.,estimatedincreaseincropyieldsoverlargeareas),currentobservations,suggest
tofocusonthelowerhalfoftherangesreportedabove(Fieldetal.,2008;Campbelletal.,2008;
Johnstonetal.,2009a,2011;Haberletal.,2013b).
BECCSfeaturesprominentlyinmanymitigationscenarios.BECCSisdeployedingreaterquantities
andearlierintimethemorestringenttheclimatepolicy(Section6.3.5).WhetherBECCSisessential
formitigation,orevensufficient,isunclear.Inaddition,thelikelihoodofBECCSdeploymentis
difficulttoevaluateanddependsonsafetyconfirmations,affordabilityandpublicacceptance(see
Section11.13.3fordetails).BECCSmayalsoaffectthecosteffectiveemissionstrajectory(Richelset
al.,InReview;Roseetal.,2013).
Someintegratedmodelsarecosteffectivelytradingofflowerlandcarbonstocksandincreasedland
N2Oemissionsforthelongrunmitigationbenefitsofbioenergy(Roseetal.,2013;Poppetal.,2013).
Themodelsfindthatbioenergycouldcontributeeffectivelytoclimatechangemitigationdespite
landconversionandintensificationemissions.However,asdiscussedbelowandinSection11.9,
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policyimplementationandcoordinationarefactorstoconsider.Inthesemodels,constraining
bioenergyhasacost.Forinstance,limitingglobalbioenergyavailabilityto100EJ/yeartripled
marginalabatementcostsanddoubledconsumptionlossesassociatedwithtransformation
pathways(Roseetal.,2013).Overalloutcomesmaydependstronglyongovernanceoflanduseand
deploymentofbestpracticesinagriculturalproduction(seesectionsabove).Progressive
developmentsingovernanceoflandandmodernizationofagricultureandlivestockandeffective
sustainabilityframeworkscanhelprealizelargepartsofthetechnicalbioenergypotentialwithlow
associatedGHGemissions.
Withincreasingscarcityofproductiveland,thegrowingdemandforfoodandbioenergycould
inducesubstantialLUCcausinghighGHGemissionsand/orincreasedagriculturalintensificationand
higherN2Oemissionsunlesswiseintegrationofbioenergyintoagricultureandforestrylandscapes
occurs(Delucchi,2010).ConsiderationofLUCemissionsinintegratedmodelsshowthatvaluingor
protectingglobalterrestrialcarbonstocksreducesthepotentialLUCrelatedGHGemissionsof
energycropdeployment,andcouldlowerthecostofachievingclimatechangeobjectives,butcould
exacerbateincreasesinagriculturalcommodityprices(Poppetal.,2011;Reillyetal.,2012).Many
integratedmodelsareinvestigatingidealizedpolicyimplementationpathways,assumingglobal
pricesonGHG(includingtheterrestriallandcarbonstock);ifsuchconditionscannotberealized,
certaintypesofbioenergycouldleadtoadditionalGHGemissions.Morespecifically,iftheglobal
terrestriallandcarbonstockremainsunprotected,largeGHGemissionsfrombioenergyrelatedLUC
alonearepossible(Melilloetal.,2009;Wiseetal.,2009;Creutzigetal.,2012;Calvinetal.,2013b).
Insummary,recentintegratedmodelscenariosprojectbetween10245EJ/yrmodernbioenergy
deploymentin2050.Goodgovernanceandfavourableconditionsforbioenergydevelopmentmay
facilitatehigherbioenergydeploymentwhilesustainabilityandlivelihoodconcernsmightconstrain
deploymentofbioenergyscenariostolowvalues(seeSection11.13.6).
11.13.6 Bioenergyandsustainabledevelopment
Thenatureandextentoftheimpactsofimplementingbioenergydependonthespecificsystem,the
developmentcontext,andonthesizeoftheintervention(Section11.4.5).Theeffectsonlivelihoods
havenotyetbeensystematicallyevaluatedinintegratedmodels(Davisetal.,2013;Muysetal.,
2013;Creutzigetal.,2013),evenifhumangeographystudieshaveshownthatbioenergy
deploymentcanhavestrongdistributionalimpacts(Davisetal.,2013;Muysetal.,2013).Thetotal
effectsonlivelihoodswillbemediatedbyglobalmarketdynamics,includingpolicyregulationsand
incentives,theproductionmodelanddeploymentscale,andplacespecificfactorssuchas
governance,landtenuresecurity,labourandfinancialcapabilities,amongothers(Creutzigetal.,
2013).
Bioenergyprojectscanbeeconomicallybeneficial,e.g.,byraisinganddiversifyingfarmincomesand
increasingruralemploymentthroughtheproductionofbiofuelsfordomesticuse(Gohin,2008)or
exportmarkets(Wickeetal.,2009;Arndtetal.,2011).

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Box 11.9 Examples of co-benefits from biofuel production
BraziliansugarcaneethanolproductionprovidessixtimesmorejobsthantheBrazilianpetroleum
sectorandspreadsincomebenefitsacrossnumerousmunicipalities(deMoraesetal.,2010).Worker
incomeishigherthaninnearlyallotheragriculturalsectors(deMoraesetal.,2010;Satoloand
Bacchi,2013)andseveralsustainabilitystandardshavebeenadopted(VianaandPerez,2013).When
substitutinggasoline,ethanolfromsugarcanealsoeliminatesleadcompoundsandreducesnoxious
emissions(Goldembergetal.,2008).Broaderstrategicplanning,understandingofcumulative
impacts,andcredibleandcollaborativedecisionmakingprocessescanhelptoenhancebiodiversity
andreverseecologicalfragmentation,addressdirectandiLUC,improvethequalityanddurabilityof
livelihoods,andothersustainabilityissues(Duarteetal.,2013).
Cobenefitsofpalmoilproductionhavebeenreportedinthemajorproducercountries,Malaysia
andIndonesia(Sumathietal.,2008;Lametal.,2009)aswellasfromnewproducercountries
(GarciaUlloaetal.,2012).Palmoilproductionresultsinemploymentcreationaswellasin
incrementstateandindividualincome(Sumathietal.,2008;Tanetal.,2009;Lametal.,2009;Sayer
etal.,2012;vonGeibler,2013).Whencombinedwithagroforestry,palmoilplantationscanincrease
foodproductionlocallyandhaveapositiveimpactonbiodiversity(Lametal.,2009;GarciaUlloaet
al.,2012)andwhenpalmoilplantationsareinstalledondegradedlandfurthercobenefitson
biodiversityandcarbonenhancement(Sumathietal.,2008;GarciaUlloaetal.,2012;Sayeretal.,
2012).Further,duetoitshighproductivity,palmoilplantationscanproducethesamebioenergy
inputusinglesslandthanotherbioenergycrops(Sumathietal.,2008;Tanetal.,2009).Certification
inpalmoilproductioncanbecomeameansforincreasingsustainableproductionofbiofuels(Tanet
al.,2009;Edser,2012;vonGeibler,2013).
Similarly,cobenefitsfromtheproductionofJatrophaasabiofuelcropindevelopingcountrieshave
beenreported,mainlywhenJatrophaisplantedondegradedland.Theseincludeincreasesin
individualsincome(Gargetal.,2011;Arndtetal.,2012),improvementinenergysecurityatthelocal
level(Muysetal.,2013;vonMaltitzandSetzkorn,2013),andreducingsoilerosion(Gargetal.,
2011).
Theestablishmentoflargescalebiofuelsfeedstockproductioncanalsocausesmallholders,tenants,
andherderstoloseaccesstoproductiveland,whileothersocialgroupssuchasworkers,investors,
companyowners,biofuelsconsumers,andpopulationswhoaremoreresponsibleforGHGemission
reductionsenjoythebenefitsofthisproduction(vanderHorstandVermeylen,2011).Thisis
particularlyrelevantwherelargeareasoflandarestillunregisteredorarebeingclaimedandunder
disputebyseveralusersandethnicgroups(DauvergneandNeville,2010).Furthermore,increasing
demandforfirstgenerationbiofuelsispartlydrivingtheexpansionofcropslikesoyandoilpalm,
whichinturncontributetopromotelargescaleagribusinessesattheexpenseoffamilyand
communitybasedagriculture,insomecases(WilkinsonandHerrera,2010).Biofuelsdeployment
canalsotranslateintoreductionsoftimeinvestedinonfarmsubsistenceandcommunitybased
activities,thustranslatingintolowerproductivityratesofsubsistencecropsandanincreaseinintra
communityconflictsasaresultoftheunevenshareofcollectiveresponsibilities(Mingorraetal.,
2010).
Bioenergydeploymentismorebeneficialwhenitisnotanadditionallanduseactivityexpanding
overthelandscape,butratherintegratesintoexistinglandusesandinfluencesthewayfarmersand
forestownersusetheirland.Variousstudiesindicatetheecosystemservicesandvaluesthat
perennialcropshaveinrestoringdegradedlands,viaagroforestrysystems,controllingerosion,and
eveninregionalclimateeffectssuchasimprovedwaterretentionandprecipitation(Faaij,2006;
Wickeetal.,2011c;Immerzeeletal.,2013).Examplesincludeadjustmentsinagriculturepractices
wherefarmers,forinstance,changetheirmanuretreatmenttoproducebiogas,reducemethane
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lossesandreduceNlosses.ChangesinmanagementpracticemayswingthenetGHGbalanceof
optionsandalsohaveclearsustainabledevelopmentimplications(Davisetal.,2013).
Smallscalebioenergyoptionscanprovidecosteffectivealternativesformitigatingclimatechange,
atthesametimehelpingadvancesustainabledevelopmentpriorities,particularlyinruralareasof
developingcountries.IEA(2012b)estimatesthat2.6billionpeopleworldwidedependontraditional
biomassforcooking,while84%ofthesebelongtoruralcommunities.Useoflowqualityfuelsand
inefficientcookingandheatingdevicesleadstopollutionresultinginnearly4millionpremature
deathseveryyear,andarangeofchronicillnessesandotherhealthproblems(Limetal.,2012;see
Section9.7.3.1).Modernsmallscalebioenergytechnologiessuchasadvanced/efficientcookstoves,
biogasforcookingandvillageelectrification,biomassgasifiers,andbagassebasedcogeneration
systemsfordecentralizedpowergeneration,canprovideenergyforruralcommunitieswithenergy
servicesthatalsopromoteruraldevelopment(IEA,2011).SuchbioenergysystemsreduceCO2
emissionsfromunsustainablebiomassharvestingandshortlivedclimatepollutants,e.g.,black
carbon,fromcleanercombustion(Chungetal.,2012).Scalingupcleancookstoveinitiativescould
notonlysave2millionlivesayear,butalsosignificantlyreduceGHGemissions(Section11.13.3).
Efficientbiomasscookstovesandbiogasstovesatthesametimeprovidemultiplebenefits:reduce
pressureonforestsandbiodiversity,reduceexposuretosmokerelatedhealthhazards,reduce
drudgeryforwomenincollectingfuelwood,andsavemoneyifpurchasingfuels(Martinetal.,2011).
Benefitsfromthedisseminationofimprovedcookstovesoutweightheircostsbysevenfold,when
theirhealth,economic,andenvironmentalbenefitsareaccountedfor(GarciaFrapollietal.,2010).
Table11.12presentstheimplicationsofbioenergyoptionsinthelightofsocial,institutional,
environmental,economic,andtechnologicalconditions.Therelationshipbetweenbioenergyand
theseconditionsiscomplexandtherecouldbenegativeorpositiveimplications,dependingonthe
typeofbioenergyoption,thescaleoftheproductionsystemandthelocalcontext.Whilebiofuels
canallowthereductionoffossilfueluseandofGHGemissions,theyoftenshiftenvironmental
burdenstowardslanduserelatedimpacts(i.e.,eutrophication,acidification,waterdepletion,
ecotoxicity;EMPA,2012;SmithandTorn,2013;TavoniandSocolow,2013).Cobenefitsandadverse
sideeffectsdonotnecessarilyoverlap,neithergeographicallynorsocially(DauvergneandNeville,
2010;WilkinsonandHerrera,2010;vanderHorstandVermeylen,2011).Themainpotentialco
benefitsarerelatedtoaccesstoenergyandimpactsontheeconomyandwellbeing,jobscreation,
andimprovementoflocalresilience(Walteretal.,2011;Creutzigetal.,2013).Mainrisksofcrop
basedbioenergyforsustainabledevelopmentandlivelihoodsincludecompetitiononarableland
(Haberletal.,2013b)andconsequentimpactonfoodsecurity,tenurearrangements,displacement
ofcommunitiesandeconomicactivities,creationofadriverofdeforestation,impactson
biodiversity,water,andsoil,orincrementinvulnerabilitytoclimatechange,andunequal
distributionofbenefits(Salaetal.,2000;Halletal.,2009;Germanetal.,2011;Thompsonetal.,
2011b;SREX,2012).
Goodgovernanceisanessentialcomponentofasustainableenergysystem.Integratedstudiesthat
compareimpactsofbioenergyproductionbetweendifferentcropsandlandmanagementstrategies
showthattheoverallimpact(bothecologicalandsocioeconomic)dependsstronglyonthe
governanceoflanduseanddesignofthebioenergysystemseevanderHilstetal.(2012)inthe
Europeancontext,andVanDametal.(2009a;b)fordifferentcropsandscenariosinArgentina).Van
Eijcketal.(2012)showsimilardifferencesinimpactsbetweentheproductionanduseofJatropha
basedonsmallholderproductionversusplantationmodels.Thisimpliesthatgovernanceand
planninghaveastrongimpactontheultimateresultandimpactoflargescalebioenergy
deployment.Legislationandregulationofbioenergyaswellasvoluntarycertificationschemesare
requiredtoguidebioenergyproductionsystemdeploymentsothattheresourcesandfeedstocksbe
puttobestuse,andthat(positiveandnegative)socioeconomicandenvironmentalissuesare
addressedasproductiongrows(vanDametal.,2010).Therearedifferentoptions,fromvoluntaryto
legalandglobalagreements,toimprovegovernanceofbiomassmarketsandlandusethatstill
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requiremuchfurtherattention(Verdonketal.,2007).Theintegrationofbioenergysystemsinto
agricultureandforestlandscapescanimprovelandandwateruseefficiencyandhelpaddress
concernsaboutenvironmentalimpactsofpresentlanduse(Berndesetal.,2004,2008;Brjesson
andBerndes,2006;Sparoveketal.,2007;Gopalakrishnanetal.,2009,2011a;b,2012;Dimitriouet
al.,2009,2011;Dornburgetal.,2010;Batidziraietal.,2012;Parishetal.,2012;Baumetal.,2012;
Busch,2012),buttheglobalpotentialsofsuchsystemsaredifficulttodetermine(Berndesand
Brjesson,2007;DaleandKline,2013).Similarly,existingandemergingguidingprinciplesand
governancesystemsinfluencebiomassresourcesavailability(Stupaketal.,2011).Certification
approachescanbeuseful,buttheyshouldbeaccompaniedbyeffectiveterritorialpolicyframeworks
(Hunsbergeretal.,2012).
Table 11.12 Potential institutional, social, environmental, economic and technological implications of
bioenergy options at local to global scale
Institutional Scale
Maycontributetoenergyindependence(+),especiallyatthelocallevel(reduce
+ Localtonational
dependencyonfossilfuels)(2,20,32,39,50)
Canimprove(+)ordecrease()landtenureanduserightsforlocalstakeholders(2,17,38,
+/ Local
50)
Crosssectoralcoordination(+)orconflicts()betweenforestry,agriculture,energy,and/or
+/ Localtonational
mining(2,13,26,31,60)
Impactsonlaborrightsamongthevaluechain(2,6,17) +/ Localtonational
Promotingofparticipativemechanismsforsmallscaleproducers(14,15) + Localtonational
Social Scale
Competitionwithfoodsecurityincludingfoodavailability(throughreducedfoodproduction
atthelocallevel),foodaccess(duetopricevolatility),usage(asfoodcropscanbediverted
Localtoglobal
towardsbiofuelproduction),andconsequentlytofoodstability.Bioenergyderivedfrom
residues,wastes,orbyproductsisanexception(1,2,7,9,12,18,23)
Integratedsystems(includingagroforestry)canimprovefoodproductionatthelocallevel
creatingapositiveimpacttowardsfoodsecurity(51,52,53,69,73,74).Further,biomass
productioncombinedwithimprovedagriculturalmanagementcanavoidsuchcompetition + Local
andbringinvestmentinagriculturalproductionsystemswithoverallimprovementsof
managementasaresult(asobservedinBrazil)(60,6366,67,70,71).
Increasing(+)ordecreasing()existingconflictsorsocialtension(9,14,19,26) +/ Localtonational
Impactsontraditionalpractices:usinglocalknowledgeinproductionandtreatmentof
+/ Local
bioenergycrops(+)ordiscouraginglocalknowledgeandpractices()(2,50)
Displacementofsmallscalefarmers(14,15,19).Bioenergyalternativescanalsoempower
+/ Local
localfarmersbycreatinglocalincomeopportunities.
Promotecapacitybuildingandnewskills(3,15,50) + Local
Genderimpacts(2,4,14,15,27) +/ Localtonational
Efficientbiomasstechniquesforcooking(e.g.,biomasscookstoves)canhavepositive
+ Localtonational
impactsonhealth,especiallyforwomenandchildrenindevelopingcountries(42,43,44)
Environmental Scale
Biofuelplantationscanpromotedeforestationand/orforestdegradation,underweakorno
Localtoglobal
regulation(1,8,22).
Whenusedondegradedlands,perennialcropsofferlargescalepotentialtoimprovesoil
carbonandstructure,abateerosionandsalinityproblems.Agroforestryschemescanhave
+ Localtoglobal
multiplebenefitsincludingincreasedoverallbiomassproduction,increasebiodiversityand
higherresiliencetoclimatechanges.(59,64,65,69,73)
Somelargescalebioenergycropscanhavenegativeimpactsonsoilquality,water
pollution,andbiodiversity.Similarlypotentialadversesideeffectscanbeaconsequenceof
Localto
incrementsinuseoffertilizersforincreasingproductivity(7,12,26,30).Experiencewith /+
transboundary
sugarcaneplantationshasshownthattheycanmaintainsoilstructure(56)andapplication
ofpesticidescanbesubstitutedbytheuseofnaturalpredatorsandparasitoids(57,71).
Candisplaceactivitiesorotherlanduses(8,26) Localtoglobal
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Smartmodernizationandintensificationcanleadtolowerenvironmentalimpactsandmore Localto
+
efficientlanduse(75,76). transboundary
Creatingbioenergyplantationsondegradedlandcanhavepositiveimpactsonsoiland Localto
+
biodiversity(12) transboundary
Therecanbetradeoffsbetweendifferentlanduses,reducinglandavailabilityforlocal
stakeholders(45,46,47,48,49).Multicroppingsystemprovidebioenergywhilebetter /+ Localtonational
maintainingecologicaldiversityandreducinglandusecompetition(58).
Ethanolutilizationleadstothephaseoutofleadaddititivesandmethyltertiarybutylether
+ Localtoglobal
(MBTE)andreducessulfur,particulatematter,andcarbonmonoxideemissions(55)
Economic Scale
Increaseineconomicactivity,incomegeneration,andincomediversification(1,2,3,12,20,
+ Local
21,27,54)
Increase(+)ordecrease()marketopportunities(16,27,31) +/ Localtonational
Contributetothechangesinpricesoffeedstock(2,3,5,21) +/ Localtoglobal
Maypromoteconcentrationofincomeand/orincreasepovertyifsustainabilitycriteriaand
Localtoregional
stronggovernanceisnotinplace(2,16,26)
Usingwasteandresiduesmaycreatesocioeconomicbenefitswithlittleenvironmental
+ Localtoregional
risks(2,41,36)
Uncertaintyaboutmidandlongtermrevenues(6,30) National
Employmentcreation(3,14,15) + Localtoregional
Technological Scale
Canpromotetechnologydevelopmentand/orfacilitatetechnologytransfer(2,27,31) + Localtoglobal
Increasinginfrastructurecoverage(+).Howeverifaccesstoinfrastructureand/or
+/ Local
technologyisreducedtofewsocialgroupsitcanincreasemarginalization()(27,28,29)
Bioenergyoptionsforgeneratinglocalpowerortouseresiduesmayincreaselabor
demand,creatingnewjobopportunities.Participatorytechnologydevelopmentalso + Local
increasesacceptanceandappropriation(6,8,10,37,40)
Technologymightreducelabordemand().Highdependentoftech.transferand/or
Local
acceptance
1
Alves Finco and Doppler (2010); 2Amigun et al. (2011); 3Arndt et al. (2012); 4Arndt et al. (2011); 5Arndt et
6 7 8 9
al.(2012); Awudu and Zhang (2012); Beringer et al. (2011); Borzoni (2012); Bringezu et al. (2012);
10
Cacciatore et al. (2012); Canado et al. (2006); Danielsen et al. (2009); Diaz-Chavez (2011); 14Duvenage
11 12 13
15 16 17 18
et al. (2013); Ewing and Msangi (2009); Gasparatos et al. (2011); German and Schoneveld (2012); Haberl
et al. (2011a); 19Hall et al. (2009); 20Hanff et al. (2011); 21Huang et al. (2012); 22Koh and Wilcove (2008);
23
Koizumi (2013); 24Kyu et al. (2010); 25Madlener et al. (2006); 26Martinelli and Filoso (2008); 27Mwakaje (2012);
28
Oberling et al. (2012); 29Schut et al. (2010); 30Selfa et al. (2011); 31Steenblik (2007); 32Stromberg and
Gasparatos (2012); 33Searchinger et al. (2009); 34Searchinger et al. (2008); 35Smith and Searchinger (2012);
36
Tilman et al. (2009); 37Van de Velde et al. (2009); 38von Maltitz and Setzkorn (2013); 39Wu and Lin (2009);
40
Zhang et al. (2011); 41Fargione et al. (2008); 42Jerneck and Olsson (2013); 43Gurung and Oh (2013);
44
OShaughnessy et al. (2013); 45German et al. (2013); 46Cotula (2012); 47Mwakaje (2012); 48Scheidel and
Sorman (2012); 49Haberl et al.(2013b); 50Muys et al. (2013); 51Egeskog et al. (2011); 52Diaz-Chavez (2012);
53
Ewing and Msangi (2009); 54de Moraes et al. (2010); 55Goldemberg (2007); 56Walter et al. (2011); 57Macedo
(2005); 58Langeveld et al. (2013); 59Van Dam et al. (2009a; b); 60van Dam et al. (2010); 61van Eijck et al. (2012);
62
van Eijck et al. (2014); 63Martnez et al. (2013); 64van der Hilst et al. (2010); 65van der Hilst et al. (2012); 66van
der Hilst and Faaij (2012); 67van der Hilst et al. (2012b); 68Hoefnagels et al. (2013); 69Immerzeel et al. (2013);
70
Lynd et al. (2011); 71Smeets et al. (2008); 72Smeets and Faaij (2010); 73Wicke et al. (2013); 74Wiskerke et al.
(2010); 75De Wit et al. (2011); 76de Wit et al. (2013)
11.13.7 Tradeoffsandsynergieswithland,water,food,andbiodiversity
Thissectionsummarizesresultsfromintegratedmodels(modelsthathaveaglobalaggregateview,
butcannotdisaggregateplacespecificeffectsinbiodiversityandlivelihoodsdiscussedabove)on
land,water,food,andbiodiversity.Inthesemodels,atanyleveloffuturebioenergysupply,land
demandforbioenergydependson(1)theshareofbioenergyderivedfromwastesandresidues
(Rogneretal.,2012);(2)theextenttowhichbioenergyproductioncanbeintegratedwithfoodor
fiberproduction,whichideallyresultsinsynergies(Gargetal.,2011;Sochackietal.,2013)oratleast
mitigateslandusecompetition(Berndesetal.,2013);(3)theextenttowhichbioenergycanbe
grownonareaswithlittlecurrentorfutureproduction,takingintoaccountgrowinglanddemandfor
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food(Nijsenetal.,2012);and(4)thevolumeofdedicatedenergycropsandtheiryields(Haberlet
al.,2010;Batidziraietal.,2012;Smithetal.,2012d).Energycropyieldsperunitareamaydifferby
factorsof>10dependingondifferencesinnaturalfertility(soils,climate),energycropplants,
previouslanduse,managementandtechnology(Johnstonetal.,2009a;Lal,2010;Beringeretal.,
2011;PaccaandMoreira,2011;Smithetal.,2012a;Erbetal.,2012a).Assumptionsonenergycrop
yieldsareoneofthemainreasonsforthelargedifferencesinestimatesoffutureareademandof
energycrops(Poppetal.,2013).Likewise,assumptionsonyields,strategies,andgovernanceon
futurefood/feedcropshavelargeimplicationsforassessmentsofthedegreeoflandcompetition
betweenbiofuelsandtheselanduses(Batidziraietal.,2012;deWitetal.,2013).
However,acrossmodels,thereareverydifferentpotentiallandscapetransformationvisionsinall
regions(Sections6.3.5and11.9.).Overall,itisdifficulttogeneralizeonregionallandcovereffectsof
mitigation.Somemodelsassumesignificantlandconversionwhileothermodelsdonot.Inidealized
implementationscenarios,thereisexpansionofenergycroplandandforestlandinmanyregions,
withsomemodelsexhibitingverystrongforestlandexpansionandothersverylittleby2030.Land
conversionisincreasedinthe450ppmscenarioscomparedtothe550ppmscenarios,butata
decliningshare,aresultconsistentwithadeclininglandrelatedmitigationratewithpolicy
stringency.Theresultsoftheseintegratedmodelstudiesneedtobeinterpretedwithcaution,asnot
allGHGemissionsandbiogeophysicalorsocioeconomiceffectsofbioenergydeploymentare
incorporatedintothesemodels,andasnotallrelevanttechnologiesarerepresented(e.g.,cascade
utilization).
Largescalebioenergyproductionfromdedicatedcropsmayaffectwateravailabilityandquality(see
Section6.6.2.6),whicharehighlydependenton(1)typeandquantityoflocalfreshwaterresources;
(2)necessarywaterquality;(3)competitionformultipleuses(agricultural,urban,industrial,power
generation),and(4)efficiencyinallsectorenduses(GerbensLeenesetal.,2009;Coelhoetal.,
2012).Inmanyregions,additionalirrigationofenergycropscouldfurtherintensifyexisting
pressuresonwaterresources(Poppetal.,2011).Studiesindicatethatanexclusionofseverewater
scarceareasforbioenergyproduction(mainlytobefoundintheMiddleEast,partsofAsia,and
westernUnitedStates)wouldreduceglobaltechnicalbioenergypotentialsby17%until2050(van
Vuurenetal.,2009).Amodelcomparisonstudywithfiveglobaleconomicmodelsshowsthatthe
aggregatefoodpriceeffectoflargescalelignocellulosicbioenergydeployment(i.e.,100EJglobally
bytheyear2050)issignificantlylower(+5%onaverageacrossmodels)thanthepotentialprice
effectsinducedbyclimateimpactsoncropyields(+25%onaverageacrossmodels(LotzeCampenet
al.,2013).Possiblyhence,ambitiousclimatechangemitigationneednotdriveupglobalfoodprices
much,iftheextralandrequiredforbioenergyproductionisaccessibleorifthefeedstock,e.g.,from
forests,doesnotdirectlycompeteforagriculturalland.Effectivelanduseplanningandstrict
adherencetosustainabilitycriterianeedtobeintegratedtolargescalebioenergyprojectsto
minimizecompetitionsforwater(forexample,byexcludingtheestablishmentofbiofuelprojectsin
irrigatedareas).Ifbioenergyisnotmanagedproperly,additionallanddemandandassociatedLUC
mayputpressuresonbiodiversity(Groometal.,2008;seeSection6.6.2.5).However,implementing
appropriatemanagement,suchasestablishingbioenergycropsindegradedareasrepresentsan
opportunitywherebioenergycanbeusedtoachievepositiveenvironmentaloutcomes(Nijsenetal.,
2012).

102of179

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Working Group III Mitigation of Climate Change

Agriculture, Forestry and Other Land

Table 11.1 Net global CO2 flux from AFOLU

17502011 19801989 19901999 20002009

NetAFOLUCO2fluxb 660 293 5.13 2.93 5.87 2.93 4.03 2.93

Residualterrestrialsinkc 550 330 5.50 4.03 9.90 4.40 9.53 4.40

4.77 2.57 4.40 2.20 2.93 2.20

Houghtonetal,2012f 4.18 1.83 4.14 1.83 4.03 1.83

Box 11.1 AFOLU GHG emissions from peatlands and mangroves

Box 11.2. AFOLU GHG emissions from fires

Forestmanagement C:Managementofforestsforsustainabletimberproductionincluding 6,7,8,9

Box 11.3 Biochar

Box 11.4 Aquaculture

Box 11.5 Bioenergy

Table 11.3 Overview of demand-side mitigation options in the AFOLU sector

Measure Description References

Cases Food Livestock Csinkon Afforestati Biomass Total Differencein

Table 11.5 Issues related to AFOLU measures and sustainable development

Table 11.6 Characterization of social actors in AFOLU

upto20 upto50 upto100 Technical

Economicactivity Diversificationandincreaseineconomicactivity()whileconcernsonequity() Local Forestry(6,7,8,20);landbasedagriculture(16,19,

NandPcycles ImpactsonNandPcyclesinwater(/)especiallyfrommonoculturesorlarge Localto Agriculture(19,23,30,35);livestock(2,3,30)

CH4 min 3% 8% 10% 0% 2% 10%

Box 11.8 Deforestation control in Brazil

Programme/Institution/Source Context ObjectivesandStrategies

Box 11.9 Examples of co-benefits from biofuel production

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