Bank of Maharashtra, 1Q FY 2014
Bank of Maharashtra, 1Q FY 2014
Bank of Maharashtra, 1Q FY 2014
Bank of Maharashtra
Performance Highlights
NEUTRAL
CMP Target Price
% chg (qoq) 4.2 (1.6) 2.8 1QFY13 651 440 140 % chg (yoy) 39.5 58.8 89.6
`39 -
Investment Period
Stock Info Sector Market Cap (` cr) Beta 52 Week High / Low Avg. Daily Volume Face Value (`) BSE Sensex Nifty Reuters Code Bloomberg Code
Bank of Maharashtra reported a strong operating performance for 1QFY2014, with a NII growth of 39.5% yoy (largely aided by robust advance growth of 44.5% yoy) and earnings growth of 89.6% yoy. The bank witnessed pressures on asset quality front, as Gross NPA levels increased sequentially by 31.8% (albeit on a lower base), however Net NPA levels witnessed much higher increase of 66.9% qoq, as PCR dipped 718bp qoq to 76.5%. Strong business growth continues; NIM declines on lower CASA ratio: During 1QFY2014, the bank continued to witness strong growth in its business, as advances grew by 44.5% yoy (8.9% qoq), while deposits by 32.0% yoy (11.8% qoq). Strong advance growth was driven by robust traction witnessed in SME and Agricultural advances, which grew by 41.4% and 37.5% yoy respectively. Overall, CASA deposits for the bank grew by 17.8% yoy (de-grew by 3.2% qoq), much less than the strong growth in aggregate deposits, hence CASA ratio for the bank dipped 426bp yoy and 546bp qoq to 35.3%. Reported NIM for the bank declined 8bp sequentially to 3.0%, on back of 546bp sequential slide in the CASA ratio, even as yield on advances increased marginally by 4bp qoq to 11.3%. The banks non-interest income (excluding treasury) grew at a moderate pace of 8.1% yoy to `167cr, on back of flat performance on recoveries front and moderate growth of 11.8% yoy in its fee income. Treasury income came in at `58cr as against `24cr in 1QFY2013, thus enabling overall other income to grow by 25.9% yoy to `225cr. During 1QFY2014, the bank witnessed pressures on the asset quality front, as gross and net NPA levels increased by 31.8% and 66.9% sequentially (albeit on a low base). Annualized slippage ratio for the bank during the quarter came in at 3.0% as against 2.2% in 4QFY2013 and 3.1% in 1QFY2013. Recoveries and upgrades came in much lower at `106cr as against `307cr in 4QFY2013 and `156cr in 1QFY2013. The banks PCR dipped 718bp qoq to 76.5%, though remains on the higher side within the PSU pack. Outlook and valuation: Total CAR for the bank as per Basel III stood at 10.76%, however core equity tier-I remains low, raising concerns about book value dilution in near future. Moreover, we remain wary of the asset quality pressures for the bank, as we take into account its recent aggressive loan growth, overall weak macro environment and recent macro developments. Hence, we recommend a Neutral rating on the stock. Key financials
Y/E March (` cr) NII % chg Net profit % chg NIM (%) EPS (`) P/E (x) P/ABV (x) RoA (%) RoE (%) FY2012 2,517 27.9 431 30.4 3.1 6.2 6.2 0.6 0.4 11.2 FY2013 3,033 20.5 760 76.3 3.0 10.6 3.6 0.5 0.7 16.8 FY2014E 3,730 23.0 873 15.0 3.0 12.3 3.1 0.5 0.6 16.5 FY2015E 3,946 5.8 838 (4.0) 2.8 11.8 3.3 0.4 0.5 14.1
Shareholding Pattern (%) Promoters MF / Banks / Indian Fls FII / NRIs / OCBs Indian Public / Others 81.2 10.2 0.9 7.7
3m (9.8)
1yr 3.5
3yr (0.8)
Vaibhav Agrawal
022 3935 7800 Ext: 6808 [email protected]
Sourabh Taparia
022 3935 7800 Ext: 6872 [email protected]
Harshal Patkar
022 3935 7800 Ext: 6847 [email protected]
1QFY14 2,749 2,129 592 28 0 1,841 908 225 167 108 58 22 37 1,133 434 266 169 699 270 189 16 65 429 163 266 38.0
4QFY13 2,781 2,144 603 34 1 1,910 871 382 295 146 87 108 42 1,253 543 363 180 711 124 112 26 (13) 586 327 259 55.8
% chg (qoq) (1.2) (0.7) (1.8) (18.7) (51.7) (3.6) 4.2 (41.1) (43.4) (26.3) (33.3) (79.5) (10.6) (9.6) (20.0) (26.9) (6.1) (1.6) 116.7 68.7 (37.0) (599.7) (26.8) (50.2) 2.8 (1786)bp
1QFY13 2,039 1,553 474 1 10 1,387 651 179 155 96 24 22 36 830 390 259 130 440 316 206 (5) 115 125 (16) 140 (12.8)
% chg (yoy) 34.9 37.1 25.0 3,737.5 NA 32.7 39.5 25.9 8.1 11.8 139.1 1.4 2.4 36.5 11.4 2.3 29.6 58.8 (14.6) (8.4) NA (43.5) 244.6 NA 89.6 NA
FY2013 9,613 7,299 2,231 38 45 6,580 3,033 912 768 492 144 157 119 3,945 1,797 1,188 609 2,149 807 586 (25) 245 1,342 583 760 43.4
FY2012 7,214 5,491 1,709 2 13 4,697 2,517 641 629 466 12 96 67 3,158 1,643 1,113 530 1,515 856 673 62 121 659 228 431 34.6
% chg (yoy) 33.3 32.9 30.6 2,427.6 241.6 40.1 20.5 42.3 22.2 5.5 1,087.7 63.7 79.1 24.9 9.4 6.7 15.0 41.8 (5.8) (13.0) (139.3) 103.3 103.7 155.4 76.3 879bp
Actual 908 225 1,133 434 699 270 429 163 266
Estimates 864 167 1,031 475 556 243 313 106 207
Var. (%) 5.1 34.5 9.9 (8.6) 25.7 10.8 37.2 53.2 28.9
Source: Company, Angel Research; Note: Profitability ratios excluding CIR for domestic operations
22.7 17.4
27.6 24.7
48.5 42.0
34.6 23.3
44.5 32.0
39.6
37.4
33.9
40.8
10.0 -
28.0 25.0
1QFY13
2QFY13
3QFY13
4QFY13
1QFY14
1QFY13
2QFY13
3QFY13
4QFY13
35.3
1QFY14
on
the
non-interest
income
front
During 1QFY2014, the banks non-interest income (excluding treasury) grew at a moderate pace of 8.1% yoy to `167cr. Moderate non-interest income performance was on back of flat performance on recoveries front and moderate growth in fee income. Recoveries from written off accounts came in at `22cr, as compared to `22cr registered in 1QFY2013 and `108cr in 4QFY2013, while fee income grew at a moderate pace of 11.8% yoy. Treasury income came in at `58cr as against `24cr in 1QFY2013, thus enabling overall other income to grow by 25.9% yoy to `225cr.
0.9
Slippages (%)
0.7
3.1
1.5
1.8
2.2
2.2 1.0
2.0 0.9
1.7 0.7
1.5 0.5
1.8 0.8
3.0
0.2 -
259 1QFY13
277 2QFY13
288 3QFY13
363 4QFY13
266 1QFY14
Investment arguments
Healthy CASA franchise ensures low-cost funding
Bank of Maharashtra has enjoyed a healthy CASA franchise for the past several years on the back of strong rural and semi-urban presence (accounting for around 55% of the entire branch network). The benefit of a healthy CASA ratio is reflected in the banks relatively lower cost of deposits than peers.
Earlier estimates FY2014E 11.0 11.0 40.4 3.0 (16.6) 12.5 12.5 2.4 75.0 13.0 13.0 40.2 3.0 6.7 10.0 12.5 2.4 75.0
Revised estimates 21.0 23.0 36.4 3.0 (12.4) 5.0 17.5 2.5 75.0 8.0 8.0 38.0 2.8 4.3 12.5 10.0 2.5 75.0
FY2015E Earlier estimates 3,912 812 4,724 2,240 2,484 1,108 1,376 468 908 Revised Var. (%) estimates 3,946 0.9 833 4,780 2,190 2,590 1,320 1,269 431 838 2.6 1.2 (2.3) 4.3 19.2 (7.8) (7.8) (7.8)
Earlier estimates 3,530 761 4,291 2,021 2,270 973 1,297 441 856
Revised Var. (%) estimates 3,730 5.7 799 4,529 1,963 2,567 1,244 1,323 450 873 5.0 5.5 (2.9) 13.1 27.8 2.0 2.0 2.0
Aug-06
Dec-08
Apr-04
Mar-07
Aug-13
Apr-11
Jul-09
Nov-04
May-08
Nov-11
Mar-14
Oct-07
Feb-10
Sep-10
Jun-05
Jan-06
Jun-12
Jan-13
Source: Company, Angel Research; Note:*Target multiples=SOTP Target Price/ABV (including subsidiaries), #Without adjusting for SASF
Company Background
Bank of Maharashtra is a mid-sized Pune-based public sector bank, with operations mostly concentrated in the parent state of Maharashtra (around 63% branches in the state as of FY2013). The bank has the highest number of branches in Maharashtra (1,050+ as of FY2013) after State Bank of India; this has allowed the bank to grow in-line with the state's progress over the past decade.
Income statement
Y/E March (` cr) Net Interest Income - YoY Growth (%) Other Income - YoY Growth (%) Operating Income - YoY Growth (%) Operating Expenses - YoY Growth (%) Pre - Provision Profit - YoY Growth (%) Prov. & Cont. - YoY Growth (%) Profit Before Tax - YoY Growth (%) Prov. for Taxation - as a % of PBT PAT - YoY Growth (%) Preference Dividend PAT avl. to Eq. shareholders - YoY Growth (%) FY10 1,296 3.2 591 18.2 1,887 7.5 1,073 11.4 815 2.6 246 (13.0) 569 11.3 129 22.7 440 17.2 440 17.2 FY11 1,968 51.9 531 (10.2) 2,499 32.4 1,644 53.2 855 5.0 467 90.1 388 (31.8) 57 14.8 330 (24.8) 34 297 (32.5) FY12 2,517 27.9 641 20.7 3,158 26.3 1,643 (0.1) 1,515 77.2 856 83.3 659 69.9 228 34.6 431 30.4 64 367 23.8 FY13 3,033 20.5 912 42.4 3,945 24.9 1,797 9.4 2,149 41.8 806 (5.9) 1,343 103.8 584 43.5 760 76.3 57 703 91.4 FY14E 3,730 23.0 799 (12.4) 4,529 14.8 1,963 9.2 2,567 19.4 1,244 54.4 1,323 (1.5) 450 34.0 873 15.0 58 815 16.0 FY15E 3,946 5.8 833 4.3 4,780 5.5 2,190 11.6 2,590 0.9 1,320 6.2 1,269 (4.0) 431 34.0 838 (4.0) 58 780 (4.3)
Balance sheet
Y/E March (` cr) Share Capital - Equity - Preference Reserve & Surplus Deposits - Growth (%) Borrowings Tier 2 Capital Other Liab. & Prov. Total Liabilities Cash Balances Bank Balances Investments Advances - Growth (%) Fixed Assets Other Assets Total Assets - Growth (%) FY10 431 431 2,428 63,304 21.1 129 2,668 2,096 71,056 5,315 1,379 21,324 40,315 17.6 660 2,063 71,056 20.4 FY11 1,070 482 588 2,901 66,845 5.6 577 2,500 2,550 76,442 3,846 203 22,491 46,881 16.3 667 2,354 76,442 7.6 FY12 1,178 590 588 3,545 76,529 14.5 4,445 2,500 2,941 91,137 4,535 1,209 26,031 56,060 19.6 601 2,701 91,137 19.2 FY13 1,249 661 588 5,147 94,337 23.3 9,777 3,100 3,341 116,953 5,265 908 31,430 75,471 34.6 1,429 2,449 116,953 28.3 FY14E 1,249 661 588 5,767 116,034 23.0 11,096 3,023 3,992 141,161 5,222 2,117 37,872 91,320 21.0 1,674 2,956 141,161 20.7 FY15E 1,249 661 588 6,352 125,317 8.0 11,969 2,947 4,434 152,269 5,639 2,284 40,780 98,625 8.0 1,751 3,189 152,269 7.9
Ratio analysis
Y/E March Profitability ratios (%) NIMs Cost to Income Ratio RoA RoE B/S ratios (%) CASA Ratio Credit/Deposit Ratio CAR - Tier I Asset Quality (%) Gross NPAs Net NPAs Slippages Loan Loss Prov. /Avg. Assets Provision Coverage Per Share Data (`) EPS ABVPS (75% cover.) DPS Valuation Ratios PER (x) P/ABVPS (x) Dividend Yield DuPont Analysis NII (-) Prov. Exp. Adj. NII Treasury Int. Sens. Inc. Other Inc. Op. Inc. Opex PBT Taxes RoA Pref. Div. RoA after Pref. Div Leverage RoE 2.0 0.4 1.6 0.3 1.9 0.6 2.5 1.6 0.9 0.2 0.7 0.7 29.1 19.7 2.7 0.6 2.0 0.1 2.1 0.6 2.8 2.2 0.5 0.1 0.4 0.0 0.4 27.6 11.3 3.0 1.0 2.0 0.0 2.0 0.8 2.7 2.0 0.8 0.3 0.5 0.1 0.4 25.0 11.2 2.9 0.8 2.1 0.1 2.3 0.7 3.0 1.7 1.3 0.6 0.7 0.0 0.7 24.6 16.8 2.9 1.0 1.9 0.1 2.0 0.6 2.5 1.5 1.0 0.3 0.7 0.0 0.6 25.8 16.5 2.7 0.9 1.8 0.0 1.8 0.5 2.4 1.5 0.9 0.3 0.6 0.0 0.5 26.2 14.1 3.8 0.8 5.2 6.3 0.7 5.2 6.2 0.6 5.7 3.6 0.5 5.9 3.1 0.5 6.5 3.3 0.4 6.5 10.2 48.9 2.0 6.2 57.5 2.0 6.2 63.8 2.2 10.6 70.9 2.3 12.3 80.3 2.5 11.8 89.1 2.5 3.0 1.6 2.5 0.4 54.7 2.5 1.3 1.7 0.5 65.6 2.3 0.8 1.8 0.8 80.4 1.5 0.5 1.4 0.6 83.7 2.9 1.1 2.5 0.8 75.0 4.4 1.4 2.5 0.8 75.0 36.9 63.7 12.8 5.7 40.4 70.1 13.4 8.0 41.3 73.3 12.4 8.3 40.8 80.0 11.7 7.0 36.4 78.7 10.4 6.5 38.0 78.7 10.1 6.6 2.1 56.8 0.7 19.7 2.8 65.8 0.4 11.3 3.1 52.0 0.5 11.2 3.0 45.5 0.7 16.8 3.0 43.3 0.6 16.5 2.8 45.8 0.5 14.1 FY10 FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14E FY15E
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Disclosure of Interest Statement 1. Analyst ownership of the stock 2. Angel and its Group companies ownership of the stock 3. Angel and its Group companies' Directors ownership of the stock 4. Broking relationship with company covered
Bank of Maharashtra No No No No
Note: We have not considered any Exposure below ` 1 lakh for Angel, its Group companies and Directors
Ratings (Returns):
10