Forecasts

The present volume is the fifth issue of the ‘Evolution’ Yearbook series. Our Yearbooks are designed to present to its readers the widest possible spectrum of subjects and issues: from universal evolutionism to the analysis of particular evolutionary regularities in the development of biological, abiotic, and social systems, culture, cognition, language, etc. The main objective of our Yearbook is the creation of a unified interdisciplinary field of research, within which scientists specializing in different disciplines could work within the framework of unified or similar paradigms, using common terminology and searching for common rules, tendencies and regularities. Global evolution (in connection with the Big History) becomes the main subject of our Yearbook. We strive to arrange each issue in such a way that the line from cosmic evolution to the human future is evident.
What is the subject of the present issue of the Yearbook? Similar to the previous issues, it shows some aspects of the evolutionary advance from the earlier phases to the anticipated future of human society. But on the whole, this volume is devoted to different aspects and facts of megaevolution and some universal theories in an attempt to find common ground in the diversity of manifestation of evolution and its forms at different stages of development. So the title of this issue, ‘Evolution and Big History: Dimensions, Trends, and Forecasts’, is fully justified (besides, several papers contribute to the field of Big History).
The volume consists of four sections: Dimensions, Trends, and Aspects; Big History's Manifestations; Trends and Forecasts; and Reviews and Information.
This Yearbook will be useful both for those who study interdisciplinary macroproblems and for specialists working in focused directions, as well as for those who are interested in evolutionary issues of Cosmology, Biology, History, Anthropology, Economics and other areas of study. More than that, this edition will challenge and excite your vision of your own life and the new discoveries going on around us.

Volatility Forecasting is an interesting challenging topic in current financial instruments as it is directly associated with profits. There are many risks and rewards directly associated with volatility. Hence forecasting volatility becomes most dispensable topic in finance. The GARCH distributions play an important role in the risk measurement and option pricing. The min motive of this paper is to measure the performance of GARCH techniques for forecasting volatility by using different distribution model. We have used 9 variations in distribution models that are used to forecast the volatility of a stock entity. The different GARCH distribution models observed in this paper are Std, Norm, SNorm, GED, SSTD, SGED, NIG, GHYP and JSU. Volatility is forecasted for 10 days in advance and values are compared with the actual values to find out the best distribution model for volatility forecast. From the results obtain it has been observed that GARCH with GED distribution models has outperformed all models.

Proper inventory planning should incorporate factors changing over time, since static factors are not robust to this apparent variability. In
models of inventories is necessary to recognize the great demand uncertainty. This paper reviews the state of the art of the most
significant developments related to inventory models, especially those who consider dynamic demands in time. In addition, demand
forecasting models and some techniques for optimizing inventories are analyzed, considering costs and service levels, among others. In
the literature review, gaps have been identified related to the treatment of multivariate inventories as well as the use of Bayesian statistics
for the purpose of optimization and the development of demand forecasts.

The danger of deflation has been rather frequently mentioned recently among numerous concerns over the European and partly American economies. Analysts cite the Japanese economy which has been suffering from deflation for the last two decades despite the large investments in economy and the govern-ment's efforts to increase inflation. Similarly, notwithstanding many trillions of dollars, euros, pounds and yen that were invested in economies over the past few years, the inflation in the Western countries still remains low.
On the whole, there are reasons to maintain that European countries suffer from ‘the Japanese disease’, and this disease can progress or even become chronic. The USA, albeit to a lesser extent, has signs of the disease as well. As a result, the financial infusions can become permanent, as it happened in Japan. The present paper defines reasons of the problem, explains the irregularity of the inflation-deflation processes in the world and also offers some forecasts on this basis that the crisis-depressive phase of development in the global economy will continue for a relatively long time. Based on our analysis of available resources and the theory of long cycles, we suppose that the new crisis will begin in 2018–2019. We also suppose that in the next 5–10 years, the global economy will continue being in the crisis-depression phase with rather sluggish and weak rises. The paper also offers some forecasts for the forthcoming sixth Kondratieff wave (2020 – the 2060/70s), identifies its possible technological basis and discusses possible consequences of the forthcoming technological transformations.

The aim of this paper is to describe the example of usage simulation modelling approach for analysing the capacity of transport node in Riga, the capital of Latvia. At first, the simulation model for this node using package VISSIM was constructed. This model was based on the real traffic measurements in this area. Further, the experiments with the model were undertaken on the data prognosis of this traffic for 5 years. The load capacity of three junctions according to the ICU classification was investigated.