Future Economics

Is sex work (specifically, prostitution) vulnerable to technological unemployment? Several authors have argued that it is. They claim that the advent of sophisticated sexual robots will lead to the displacement of human prostitutes, just as, say, the advent of sophisticated manufacturing robots have displaced many traditional forms of factory labour. But are they right? In this article, I critically assess the argument that has been made in favour of this displacement hypothesis. Although I grant the argument a degree of credibility, I argue that the opposing hypothesis -- that prostitution will be resilient to technological unemployment -- is also worth considering. Indeed, I argue that increasing levels of technological unemployment in other fields may well drive more people into the sex work industry. Furthermore, I argue that no matter which hypothesis you prefer -- displacement or resilience -- you can make a good argument for the necessity of a basic income guarantee, either as an obvious way to correct for the precarity of sex work, or as a way to disincentivise those who may be drawn to prostitution.

Rola bezpośrednich inwestycji zagranicznych w kształtowaniu aktualnego i przyszłego profilu gospodarczego województwa łódzkiego, red. Janusz Świerkocki, Łódzkie Towarzystwo Naukowe, Łódź 2011, s. 253 Recenzowana książka jest efektem realizacji projektu badawczego Rola bezpośrednich inwestycji zagranicznych w kształtowaniu aktualnego i przyszłego profilu gospodarczego województwa łódzkiego, współfinansowanego ze środków Unii Europejskiej w ramach Europejskiego Funduszu Społecznego. Zespół autorski liczy 6 osób: A. Dorożyńska, T. Dorożyński, A. Kłysik-Uryszek, M. Plich, J. Świerkocki, W. Urbaniak. Wkłady poszczególnych autorów są zróżnicowane. Autorstwo i współautorstwo rozdziałów zostało jednoznacznie przypisane poszczególnym osobom. Tytuł książki dobrze koresponduje z jej zawartością.

The essay reviews Joel Kotkin's The New Class Conflict (2014). It looks at the failures of the tech industry and the knowledge economy (and their left-liberal political supporters) to sustain American jobs and living standards. Over time America’s middle class has been hollowed out. The ranks of the low-income service and welfare classes have swelled. The essay considers how this process may intensify, as a new wave of automation and robotics prepares to replace jobs of all kinds, including service, professional, para-professional, manual and transport work.

This book is the only book that was published to date that aims to predict the future of Israel with sound Futures' methodologies.

Many have tried to do so but from a subjective perspective.

This book, however, employs a range of valid Futures' methodologies to describe Israeli trends in four future subject areas: economic situation, social life, national security and national identity.

The book describes worldwide driving forces and their impact on local trends in a variety of time frames—from 10 to 50 years into the future.

Part 1
The first part of the book is an introduction to Futures Thinking and methodologies (50 pages).

In this part I am organizing all the different future methodologies developed to date in four categories:

1. methodologies that aim to predict probable trends (with 60-70 percent validity),

2. methodologies that aim to predict possible trends (with 40-50 percent validity),

3. methodologies that aim to predict wild card (extreme) trends (with 20-30 percent validity) and

4. methodologies that aim to assist in generating preferable futures.

In this part, I am briefly describing the philosophy behind each category and give a host of examples of predictions drafted with a variety of methodologies that correspond to each category.

The other four parts are actually 16 predictions in four subject areas: future economic situation, social life, national security and national identity.

Part 2-5

In part 2 of the book 4 probable scenarios are developed—one in each of the above subject area (100 pages).

In part 3 of the book 4 possible scenarios are developed—one in each of the above subject area (100 pages).

In part 4 of the book 4 wild cards scenarios are developed—one in each of the above subject area (100 pages).

In part 5 of the book 4 preferable scenarios are developed—one in each of the above subject area (100 pages).


Each scenario is built in the following format:

1. Methodology (pros and cons as well as validity),
2. Prediction based on data analysis,
3. Recommendations how to avoid or strengthen trends deriving from the prediction

Trends
Here are highlights of the different trends in the four categories. Some of the trends have started folding after the book was published*:


Probable scenarios

The Israeli leaders of the 2nd and 3rd decades of the 21st century will be the great reformers of the Israeli society. They will be driven by a great guilt that their parents almost brought down social, political and ecological systems.

Based on the cycles of wars as evolved in the last couple millennium, Israel will be part of a war by 2020 which will define its history of the 21st century. This war could be a decisive battle with its neighbors.

The second decade of the 21st century will be very promising to the Israeli economy. While most of the world will be in a deep recession from the year 2008-2020 Israel could become by 2020 part of the economic leading 15 nations*.

The solidarity among the various Israeli sub-groups will be dismantled by 2030 and a light form of a civil war would occur.

Possible scenarios

Many of the nation state's social networks could collapse by 2020. Instead local and communal institutes will take over many of their national missions*.

Terrorists worldwide are organized as Complex Adaptive Systems. As such they could win their battle against democracies. In order to avoid this possibility, democracies would need to make some very difficult moral issues.

Future industries would be of high-science nature. For that matter higher education needs a revamped strategy.

If Israel would transfer its democracy from a representative to an agreed upon democracy, the Lebanonization of the country could be much more devastating than the one occurring in Lebanon.

Wild cards scenarios

Violence and street brawls between citizens of well established and successful cities and failing cities might occur.

In most of the nations surrounding Israel an accelerating process of social and national decay is underway. A flow of masses might storm the borders of Israel and no peace treaty will hold the collapse of the borders.

A group of terrorists might detonate a small nuclear bomb in one of the US cities. The US might be persuaded to cut its strategic ties with Israel in response to the outcry of various local and international groups.

By 2020 the price of an oil barrel might reach $500. In that case, the Israeli society will deteriorate to lower levels of complexity which might cause the Israeli elites to flee the country.

A strong anti-religious movement might rise to challenge the religiosity of the state and succeed in separating the two.

Preferable scenarios

Decision makers in Israel don't distinguish between routine security concept and a preferred one. This could be a reason for a major security failure. Israel needs a preferred security vision.

The shortcomings of capitalism will begin taking hold by the end of the first decade of the 21st century. Israel could contribute significant reforms to the foundations of the system and gain praise worldwide. Its millennial long literature contains appropriate philosophies for necessary revisions*.

Zionism of the 20th century has probably exhausted itself. Israel would greatly benefit from developing a collective covenant that will lead it to greater achievements in the 21st century.

The century long dispute with Arab neighbors might come to its resolution when a renewed national covenant mission will be solidified and accepted by the majority of the Israeli citizens. This is the challenge of the Israeli society in the first half of the 21st century.