Drought Impacts

Se presenta una breve exposición y análisis de las medidas que han sido instauradas en los últimos años para afrontar la sequía en México; entre ellas destaca el inicio del proceso de transición de un enfoque reactivo basado en la gestión de la crisis a un enfoque preventivo orientado hacia la gestión del riesgo. Éste no puede eliminarse por completo, pero las acciones preventivas permitirán mitigar sus efectos aunque para ello será necesario afrontar y superar varios retos en el futuro inmediato.

Climate change is an immediate concern in Bangladesh. The country's geophysical characteristics expose it to extreme events, and its economy relies on agriculture, which is highly climate-sensitive. Bangladesh continues to reduce poverty but still has a long way to go, as one out of every four Bangladeshi remains poor as of 2016 (World Bank, 2017). These factors imply that the smallest shocks or stresses can push the already socioeconomically marginalised sections of the population further into poverty and deprivation. Meanwhile, rainfall patterns are already shifting, and the intensity of rainfall is projected to increase in the next few decades. Bangladesh has also been exhibiting increasing trends in annual mean temperatures. The situation will continue to worsen, indicating an urgent need to build the resilience of people and their livelihoods to climate change. Global climate projections report declines in agricultural yields as one of the direct consequences of climate change. Paddy, the staple food grain of Bangladesh, is highly sensitive to temperature changes and will be adversely affected. Meanwhile, the agriculture sector plays a vital role in accelerating Bangladesh's economic growth. About 45.1% of the labour force is directly or indirectly dependent on agriculture. The sector also plays an important role in attaining food security and improving the quality of life of the increasing population, as well as creating employment. It is thus vital to ensure the agricultural system in place is profitable, sustainable and environmentally friendly. Measures to ensure this need to factor in the additional risks posed by climate change. In this context, Action on Climate Today (ACT), a Department for International Development-funded initiative, in partnership with the International Centre for Climate Change and Development (ICCCAD), Bangladesh, has been supporting the Cotton Development Board (CDB) in enhancing the resilience of the value chain of cotton, an important emerging commercial crop in the country. Bangladesh is the second largest readymade garments exporter in the world and one of the biggest importers of cotton. Current domestic production of cotton meets only 5% of the industry's demand and there thus exists significant scope to expand cotton production to bridge this gap. The cotton crop has certain features, such as a vertical tap root, that make it more resilient to high temperatures and salinity. Compared with paddy, it requires less water and therefore is more conducive to growth in the highlands. However, the crop is highly sensitive to changes in climate, especially shifts in rainfall patterns. Untimely rainfall during the flowering period drastically reduces the yield and quality of cotton. Cotton expansion is also at a nascent stage and tightly controlled at the processing and marketing stages. Existing bottlenecks across the value chain, along with climate change, pose problems for the wider uptake of cotton cultivation as well as for the livelihood security of cotton farmers. The overall objective of this study was to map existing processes, benefits and constraints within the cotton value chain and the additional vulnerabilities posed by climate change. Based on these, this report suggests informed measures to address value chain bottlenecks and build the resilience of the crop and its farmers to the impending impacts of climate change. These measures can be taken by the government, community-based organizations, private sector entities and other stakeholders for replication, and could involve scaling up and enhancing the value share of small and marginal farmers and other vulnerable groups in the process. A value chain approach supports integrated climate risk management through better connection of producers to markets and increased economic returns to small farmers. Thus, it is an approach not just to building climate resilience but also to providing more effective support for agriculture generally.

Natural hazards such as agricultural droughts impact negatively on crop yields and economic activities.
Characterization of agricultural droughts provides precise and accurate information for decision making
processes during agricultural drought events. Planning and responding to the hazards by government, and
non-governmental organizations in the Sudano-Sahelian belt has been limited in the past due to knowledge
gap on the nature and impact of the hazard. This study seeks to characterize historical agricultural droughts,
assess their impact on crop yields and people’s susceptibility to undernourishment and through forecasting,
unravel what the future holds. Annual effective reconnaissance drought index values are computed using
mean monthly potential evapotranspiration and effective precipitation data. To assess the impact of
agricultural drought, the index’s values are compared to crop yields and prevalence to undernourishment
data. Results show that agricultural drought events of 1983 and 2008 are mild and ephemeral while the 1999
– 2006 event is severe and protracted. While there is 26% chance of materialization of an agricultural drought
in Gourma, the chance of being ephemeral and of moderate category is the highest (8%). It has been
determined that an ephemeral and moderate agricultural drought would trigger below average yields for
maize, sorghum and millet. Mild, moderate and severe events increase prevalence to undernourishment by
2.9 %, 4.3 % and 5.8 % respectively. From 2020 to 2030, a continued materialization of agricultural droughts
is expected.

خشکسالي اقتصادي- اجتماعي؛ پس از يک دوره طولاني مدت خشکسالي هواشناسي و هيدرولوژيکي اتفاق می افتد وباعث بر هم خوردن روند طبيعي فعاليتهاي انساني، حيات گياهي و زندگي جانوري می شود. بنابر این خشکسالي در بر گيرنده مجموعه اي پيچيده و در هم تنيده از تاثيرات منفي است كه آنها را می توان به اثرات اقتصادي ، اجتماعي و زيست محيطي تقسیم نمود. اهم این اثرات عبارت ازكاهش توليدات گیاهی و دامی ،تهديد امنيت غذايي ، ضايعات شديد بر زيستگاه ها و اكوسيستم هاي طبیعی، كاهش توليدات علوفه مراتع ، کاهش آبدهی منابع آب ، به مخاطره افتادن پرورش آبزيان ، ايجاد پديده بيابان زايي و كويرزايي، کاهش اشتغال،افزایش بيكاري و تاثیر بر بهداشت عمومي،سياست ها و حتي روابط خارجي خواهد بود.
بیشترین اثرات اقتصادي خشکسالی بر بخش کشاورزی است ،زیرا كاهش هر يك ميلي‌متر بارندگي ‪ مي تواند در حدود ۱۵۰‬ تا ‪۲۰۰‬ ميليارد ريال به این ‌بخش درکشور آسيب وارد نمايد.اين جنبه از اثرات خشكسالي بر اقتصاد استان  نیز بسيار قابل توجه می باشد. بنحویکه در سال جاری خسارت وارده به باغات بیش از 1280 ميلياردریال برآورد شده و در صورتي كه آب مورد نياز باغات تامين نگردد اين مشكل به خشك شدن درختان منجر شده كه خساراتي بيش از این ها در برخواهد داشت.همچنین خشكسالي سال جاری مناطق حفاظت شده و طبیعی استان از جمله  تالاب گاوخونی ، زاینده رود  ، منطقه حفاظت شده قمیشلو و ... را با بحران های جدی زیست محیطی رو به رو کرده است و  مرگ ومیر هزاران ماهی و پرنده  را باعث شده است.
با اینحال گرچه راهي براي جلوگيري از این بلای طبيعي وجود ندارد و حداقل50 درصد سال‌ها در کشور دچار خشکسالی با درجه‌های مختلف می باشیم، اما مي توان با راهکار های برون رفت از وضعیت فعلی و تدارک اقداماتي قابل اجراء  متناسب با اين پديده در قالب مديريت بحران و برنامه هاي مقابله با خشكسالي از ميزان خسارت هاي وارده کاست.

أصبحَ الجَفافُ مِنْ أهمِّ المُشكلات والأخطَار التي تواجه كَثيرٌ مِنْ الدولِ، وبصفةٍ خَاصةٍ الدول الفقيرة؛ لِعَدمِ قُدرتها الاقتصاديَّة والعِلْميَّة على المواجهةِ. وتُعَدُّ دول إقليم الساحل الأفريقي مِنْ أكثرِ دول العَالَم مُعَاناةً مِنْ كَثرةِ تِكرار مَوْجَات الجَفاف القاتِلة بهـا، مُنذُ سِتينيَّات القَرن العَشرين.
ومَع التغيُّرات المُناخيَّة زادت رُقعة الأراضي التي زَحَفَت عليها الصحـراءُ، وتعرَّضت التربةُ في المَناطق الجَافّة والقاحِلة إلى التدهورِ في بنيَتها وخواصها الفيزيَائيَّة والكيميائيَّة، مِمَّا أدَّى إلى فُقدانِ الحيَاة النباتيَّة والتنوّع الحيَوي بها، وبالتالي عَدَم قُدرة التربة على الإنتاجِ الزراعي ودَعم الحيَاة الحيوانيَّة والبَشريَّة، وهـو مَـا يُعـرف بالتصحُّـرِ، تلك المُشكلة التي تحوَّلت إلى خَطرٍ أصبح يُهَدِّدُ كَثيرٌ مِنْ دولِ العَالَم، الغَنيَّة والفَقيرة عَلَى حَدٍّ سَواءٍ.
تُمَثِّـلُ دِراسةُ جُغـرافيَة الأراضي الجَافّة جَانبًا جُغرافيًّا مُهِمًّا في الدراسات الجُغرافيَّة والبيئيَّة، وذلك لاهتمامِها بإبرازِ المُشكلات والأخطار المُناخيَّة والبيئيَّة في المَناطق الجَافّة والقاحِلة.
ويَتضمَّنُ هَذا الكتابُ سبعة فصول، عَرَضَ الفصلُ الأول تعريفات الجَفَاف وأنواعه، واختصَّ الفصلُ الثاني بتحديدِ الجَفاف وتصنيفه وتوزيعه، واهتمَّ الفصلُ الثالث بأسبابِ الجَفاف والقحولة والتوزيع الجُغرافي، في حين دَرَسَ الفصلُ الرابع المَلامح الجيومورفولوجيَّة في الأقاليم الجَافّة والقَاحِلة، بَيْنما تناولَ الفصلُ الخامس السمَات المُناخيَّة ومَوارد الميَاه في الأقاليمِ الجَافّة والقَاحِلة.
وجَاء الفصلُ السادس لإلقاءِ الضوْءِ على البيئةِ الحيَويَّة في الأقاليمِ الجَافّة والقَاحِلة. أمَّـا الفصلُ الأخيـر فكانَ لِدراسةِ الأنشطة الاقتصاديَّة وطُرق التنمية ومُواجهة المُشكلات في الأقاليمِ الجَافّة والقَاحِلة.
ولَعَـلَّ الكتابُ يَكونُ بهذا قد اقتربَ مِنْ الإحَاطةِ بمُعظمِ المُوضوعات المُختلفة لِمُقرَّرِ "جُغرافيَة الأراضي الجَافّة". وقد حَرِصَ المُؤلِّفَان على أن تكونَ المَادةُ العِلْميَّةُ مُدَعَمَّةً بالبيانات والخرائطِ والأشكالِ والتوضيحيَّة والمَرئيَّات الفضائيَّة والصور الفوتوغرافيَّة؛ كإحدى الوسائل المُساعدة في سهولة توصيل المَعلُومَات للطالبِ، فقد احتوى الكتابُ على 62 خريطةً وشكلاً بيانيًّا، و17 جَدولاً، و11 صورةً فوتوغرافيَّةً.
وبحَمْدِ اللهِ وتوفيقه قد تمَّ شَرْح الكِتاب، الذي بَيْن أيْدكم، كَامِلاً على قناةِ الـ YouTube الخاصة بي Dr. Mahmoud Abdel-Fattah Anbar ، وذلك بقائمةِ التشغيل (سِلْسِلَة مُحاضرات في مُقرَّر¦ جُغرافيَة الأراضي الجَافَّة). وسَوف تجدون في بدايةِ كُلّ فَصل مِنْ فصولِ الكتاب "رابط" شَرح الفَصل على قناةِ الـ YouTube الخاصة بي. أَسْألُ اللهَ العَظيم ربّ العَرش الكَريم أن يَنفعَ بي وبكُم.
"واللهُ سُبحانه وتعالي وليُّ التوفيق"
المُؤلِّفَان
القَاهرة: أكتوبر 2017

El cambio climático está provocando una intensificación en la variabilidad climática natural, con un aumento en la frecuencia y severidad de las sequías en muchas partes del mundo. El peligro por sequía se refiere a la probabilidad de que ocurra un evento de sequía en un espacio y tiempo determinados con suficiente intensidad como para producir daños; la vulnerabilidad ante la sequía es el grado en que un sistema es susceptible e incapaz de hacer frente a los efectos adversos, daños o perjuicios causados por este fenómeno natural; y el riesgo por sequía está determinado por la confluencia del peligro y la vulnerabilidad. Con base en estos conceptos, en este artículo se presentan los resultados de la aplicación de una metodología desarrollada por los autores para determinar índices municipales de peligro, vulnerabilidad y riesgo por sequía en México. Los resultados indican que la metodología es viable para su aplicación a nivel nacional, e inclusive puede ser adaptado para aplicarse a nivel estatal o regional. Su principal ventaja es que se basa en un procedimiento analítico objetivo que permite identificar los municipios más vulnerables desde los puntos de vista económico, social y ambiental, y aquellos con mayor propensión y riesgo de ser afectados por sequía. Se concluye que los resultados obtenidos pueden ser útiles para los tomadores de decisiones y los responsables de formular políticas públicas en varios sentidos, tales como: establecer prioridades en la implementación de medidas de prevención y mitigación; entender dónde y cómo mejorar las capacidades de adaptación; entender dónde y cómo disminuir la exposición y la sensibilidad; y, en última instancia, optimizar la distribución de recursos de los diversos programas gubernamentales orientados al desarrollo social, los cuales contribuyen al fortalecimiento de capacidades para hacer frente a los fenómenos hidrometeorológicos extremos y a la adaptación al cambio climático.

The study focuses on the assessment of the impacts of recurrent droughts on agricultural and pastoral communities in Baligubadle and Gabiley Districts of Marodiheh Region, Somaliland. Many parts of this country with limited water availability pose serious challenges to development. In the year 2008 it estimated that 150,000 pastoralists in the coastal areas were affected. The study adopted both qualitative and quantitative approach. The quantitative data gathered was analyzed using SPSS, while qualitative data was analysed using content analysis, themes, explanations, descriptions and photography. The sample size used was 384 and this was drawn from target population of 14560 respondents based on Solvents formula for sample selection. The findings showed that impact of drought is reflected in a failed harvest of crops and Livestock production. The frequent droughts severely affected them leading to experience food insecurity, limited water for both human and animal consumptions. The highest proportion of the study attributes the causes of the recurrent drought to Natural factor endowment (rainfall scarcity), while others associate it to factors like deforestation, soil erosion. Possible drought tolerance mechanisms were based on variables like relevancy of services, actual service delivered, quality, and quantity.Inconclusion,the objectives of the study were attained, respondents were able to point drought directly by identifying its impacts and effects on livestock and crops in individuals, household and community levels. The study recommends that agricultural extension and veterinary service delivery should receive massive investment and a renewed commitment and vision to generate a fundamental change in the lives of the poor livestock and crop farmers. Most important fall, afforestation, reforestation, agro-forestation and refrain from environmental degradation through forest cover clearance and charcoal burning must be a priority. It also recommends the above areas to be further studied by NERAD and relevant ministries.

"A catastrophic draught event was reported across much of the north of South America during August - December 2005. This resulted in extensive and irreversible damage in parts of the
Amazon river network. The 2005 Amazon draught followed very unusual changes in the Atlantic Ocean’s circulatory system that altered typical wind and rain patterns. Many climatic models predict the future desiccation of the Amazon region. This paper discusses dangers of sudden swings in the Amazon’s climate and how these risks can be reduced and securing the future of the river system.

The Amazon river systems’ inability to adapt to the new seasonal climate patterns in 2005, which led to a complete destruction of some river ecosystems, suggested us to look at water engineering solutions to prevent the risks of more tributaries of such dying. We made a case study to oxygenate the Amazon river to raise its draught-stress threshold during the likely future draughts that may be even worse than today if the Atlantic weather system generates more storms as the world’s temperature rises.

We studied a 100 kilometre wide section near the Amazon’s mouth. We assumed temperature +30C (when 100% oxygenated water contains 7,6 mg O2 / litre). The addition of 2,5 mg O2 / l represents 1/3 of the total, i.e. raising from 70% to 100%. This large water body oxygenation project requires 4 million kg O2 / day. 2,000 MIXOX units consume 80 MW / 100 km of river. 1,000 km demand is at 800 MW (1 power station), costing ~500 million euros p.a." http://www.vesieko.fi/yhteystiedot

Water is one of the most essential natural resources for sustaining life. Its development and management play a vital role in agriculture production. Integrated water management is vital for poverty reduction, environmental sustenance, and sustainable economic development. In view of the rapid increase in population, urbanization, and industrialization, the demand for water for meeting various requirements is continuously increasing. Therefore, we are facing numerous challenges in the water sector, which include reducing per capita water availability, the decline in groundwater table in many areas, and saltwater intrusion in coastal aquifers. The quality of surface water and groundwater is also deteriorating because of increasing pollutant loads from various sources. Climate change may also adversely affect the availability and distribution of water resources. This article presents an overview of relevant issues pertaining to development and management of water resources in India.

Namibia is one of the most vulnerable countries to the effects of climate change due to the aridity to most parts of the country. Events resulting from climate changes such as droughts drive the majority of the population to poverty when they occur. Drought spells have become a common feature in Namibia. In 2019, another drought hit Namibia and several resultant impacts made the news. This study aimed at providing an overview of the drought impacts from the 2019 news headlines. The study employed an online survey on reported events based on both national and international news reports. The study found that the rainfall during the 2019 drought was the lowest recorded in Windhoek since 1891 and the drought was the worst in the last 90 years in Namibia. A combination of poor, sporadic rainfall and low soil moisture has led to very low agriculture production and an extreme shortage of water, affecting several communities across the country. As a result, at least one-third of the Namibian population was left without adequate food supplies and thousands of livestock perished due to drought. The study concluded that there is a need to adopt and use various drought survival mechanisms on a permanent basis rather than only implementing them when drought occurs. This would largely reduce the dependency on the interventions. Budgetary planning could focus for instance on establishing the required desalination plants and infrastructure for pumping water from the coast to distant needy communities.

Shortage of food and water resources resulted from climatic crises has alarmed people around the world, in particular that the rain-watered agriculture and vegetation of natural resources suffer from the irregular rainfall in most of the water years. Drought and wetness year causes significant impacts on water resources, crops, commerce, trade and in general, economy and political crises. Give the fact that some countries like Iran are located in the dry belt of the world their rainfall pattern possess unique features: low intensity and high fluctuation. The persistent negative fluctuations of precipitation lead to drought characterized by different severity which imposes extensive damage on ecological and economic condition of the affected areas. Therefore, in this paper the comprehensive review of drought indices is presented and the advantages and disadvantages related to each index is discussed enabling policy makers to manage drought effectively.

Rainfed agriculture output is constantly at risk of being influenced by rainfall deficits and drought events. The northern part of Ethiopia, has witnessed historical meteorological and agricultural drought events, which have highly impacted on smallholders’ crop yield. With the frequency and severity of drought events expected to increase in the future due to predicted climatic changes, the need for risk-reduction mechanisms is overt. Crop insurance is an innovative risk management mechanism during extreme weather events like droughts, with index-based insurance designs being more popular and feasible in developing countries where traditional crop insurance is unattainable. This study therefore utilized crop yield data from survey of 34 randomly selected farmers’ plots to develop payout thresholds related to reported crop losses during historical drought years to develop a crop insurance index to be triggered by drought. The kiremt (summer) DevNDVI shows the closest proxy to crop losses recorded in the area with a lower threshold of 1.31Qt/ha. The indexes designed by this study performed very well when payout conditions were evaluated in the light of the recent drought years in the area. We therefore advocate the consideration of area-specific crop insurance index for implementation in Ethiopia at large, being more compensatory than the current policies based on weather derivatives.

In the present paper five significant late medieval drought events, occurred in Hungary (4 cases) and Croatia (1 Dalmatian case), are discussed based on contemporary documentary evidence. Information on long-term lack of precipitation, severe annual (or multiannual) water shortage, extreme low water levels of major rivers or bad harvest and severe food shortage in 1362, 1474, 1479, 1494 and 1507, often accompanied or followed by locust invasions, were documented both in narratives, account books, charters and letters. Apart from causing food shortage or difficulties in transportation (e.g. of salt), these greatest known documented drought events of medieval Hungary were blamed for weakening the country's military defence (e.g. low water-levels) and providing good opportunities for Ottoman-Turkish attacks. These great drought events sometimes occurred one year later than those of the neighbouring areas in Central Europe – a fact that can be probably explained by the bi- or multi-annual nature of dry spells (e.g. in and around 1474, 1479, 1507) that does not necessarily fit the frame of a calendar year.

In the present paper, an overview of studies and investigations, related to the field of historical climatology and impact of hydrometeorological extremes based on documentary evidence, is presented. In addition to this, earlier investigations as well as the present stage of historical climatology in Hungary are discussed, based on research studies of climatologists, meteorologists, historians, and geographers. Besides compilations and analyses on long-term climate change, case studies on weather-related extreme events and anomalies of the last thousand years (such as droughts and floods) are also included. As regards climate variability and change, an overview is provided on the research based on lake water-level changes.

The main objective of this report was to review available information and literature and conduct a detailed temporal and geospatial analysis of recent drought in Southern Africa. An explanation was provided for the concept and causes of drought, as well as the different types of drought prevalent in Southern Africa. A description of the progression of the 2007-2011 southern cape drought was surmised. Included is a report on factors that exacerbated the effects of this drought. Lastly, an analysis of how drought conditions may affect people in rural areas has been provided. Methodology involved an array of data sources, entailing both quantitative and qualitative data.

In another research, Lukas et al (2003) calculated and compared three drought indices in Greece using data collected from 28 stations during 40 years (1960-2000). The indices used in their research Abstract: Shortage of food and water resources resulted from climatic crises has alarmed people around the world, in particular that the rain-watered agriculture and vegetation of natural resources suffer from the irregular rainfall in most of the water years. Drought and wetness year causes significant impacts on water resources, crops, commerce, trade and in general, economy and political crises. Give the fact that some countries like Iran are located in the dry belt of the world their rainfall pattern possess unique features: low intensity and high fluctuation. The persistent negative fluctuations of precipitation lead to drought characterized by different severity which imposes extensive damage on ecological and economic condition of the affected areas. Therefore, in this paper the comprehensive review of drought indices is presented and the advantages and disadvantages related to each index is discussed enabling policy makers to manage drought effectively.

Eskiçağ Tarihi araştırmacılarının uzun yıllardır üzerine eğildiği
konuların başında Ege Göçleri yahut Deniz Kavimleri Hareketi denilen,
dönemin siyasi, ekonomik ve sosyal yapısını derinden etkileyen olaylar dizisi gelmektedir. Bu olayların sebepleri ve sonuçları üzerinde uzun yıllardır çeşitli tartışmalar süregelmekte, konuyla ilgili çalışmalar yürüten bilim insanları ortak bir noktada buluşamamaktadır. Bu görüş ayrılıklarından biri göçlerin ana sebebinin kuraklık olup olmadığı yönündedir. Bu kısa çalışma tarihi metinler, arkeolojik kanıtlar ve doğa bilimlerinin konu ile ilgili ortaya koydukları fikirleri ve araştırmaları bir araya toplamak ve bu şekilde kuraklık olgusunun varlığını sorgulamayı amaçlamaktadır. İlk defa Carpenter tarafından ileri sürülen kuraklık tezi zaman içerisinde ortaya çıkan yeni bilgilerle değişime uğramış olmasına karşın özünü korumaya devam etmiştir. Bu görüş, kuraklıktan etkilenen halkların daha önce benzeri görülmemiş bir şekilde, arkalarında büyük yıkıntılara sebebiyet vererek ilerlemeleri ve sonucunda ‘’Karanlık Çağı’’ başlatmaları üzerinedir. Özellikle Drews’in son yılları etkileyen, bu ve diğer tezleri yeniden tartışmaya açan çalışmaları bu makalenin yazılmasında da etkili olmuştur. Nihayetinde geçmişten günümüze yapılan çalışmalar ve ortaya atılan fikirler birbiriyle çelişmiş, kafa karıştırıcı bir hal almıştır. Bu kısa çalışma ile ortaya çıkan bu karmaşayı bir nebze olsun gidermek amaçlanmıştır.

For many years, ancient history researchers have focused on Aegean Migration or Sea Peoples Movement. This movements changed political, economical and social structure of the period. There are several on-going argumentations about the causes and consequences of these events but there is no common idea between the scientists who are working on this issue. The most important disagreement about the
migrations is whether the main reason of movements is drought or not. In this short study, it was aimed to compile ancient texts, arceological evidences and scientific explanations about the theory of drought, and
also investigate whether the theory of drought is exist or not. The theory of drought asserted by carpenter arranged with new informations and ideas over time but it has preserved its main idea. According to the
theory, people devastated unprecedentedly and entered the dark ages because of the drought. Especially, Drews’s study reopened the discussion about the theory of drought and this article is inspired by the
opinions of Drews. Consequently, from past to present,studies and opinions are in contradiction with each other. The main purpose of this brief study was to elucidate this complicated issue.

Traditionally, drought effects in Mexico have been attended through governmental reactive efforts directed to provide water and food, to assure health protection, and to restore economic impact once the phenomena occurred. The Mexican Government through National Water Commission (CONAGUA, for its acronym in Spanish), interested in changing the paradigm for preventive actions to cope with droughts in Mexico in the past, decided to launch in 2013 the National Program Against Drought (PRONACOSE, for its acronym in Spanish) and created the Intersecretarial Commission on Droughts and Floods (CIASI, for its acronym in Spanish) to take charge of coordinating, implementing and following-up of the PRONACOSE. This program has its main focus on reducing vulnerability through the implementation of planned preventive actions under a comprehensive and participative approach. As key part of the program, Programmes of Preventive and Mitigation Drought Measures (PMPMS, for its acronym in Spanish) for each one of the 26 river basin councils established in the country and for the principal cities of Mexico were developed. These programmes include the measures that can be implemented within the river basin councils and the cities to cope with drought in three ways: before the phenomenon occurs (strategic measures), when it is starting (tactical measures) or when it is already happening (emergency measures). Also, since 2014, the National Meteorological Service (SMN, for its acronym in Spanish) releases timely alerts and monitors the evolution of the drought including affected areas and level of severity of the phenomenon at a basin, state and municipality level. It is noteworthy that in all these activities the Mexican Institute of Water Technology (IMTA, for its acronym in Spanish) has played an important role, as this institute has provided the necessary technical support for the designing and implementation of the PRONACOSE. It is concluded that drought risk cannot be fully eliminated, nevertheless the actions that are implemented as part of this program are useful to mitigate its effects.

The main parameters of drought phenomenon are the longest duration and largest severity for a desired return period. These parameters form the basis for designing water storage structures to cope with drought effects. In this study, these drought parameters were estimated using the probability based theory. The sample estimates of the mean, coefficient of variation, skew-ness, correlation and information on the probability distribution of flow sequence, were used as the basic input parameters. The truncation level was considered at mean level of the annual flow sequences of River Malewa in Lake Naivasha basin. In this basin, 100, 50, 10, 5 and 2-year droughts may persist continuously for 6, 4, 3, 2 and 1 years respectively. From the probabilistic approach for a normal probability distribution function, high values of coefficient of variation resulted in high values of the actual severity. The results show that there is drought severity in Lake Naivasha basin especially in parts experiencing high inter-annual variability in annual flow regimes.

Los Llanos represents the main cereal producing region in Venezuela, but the region is usually affected by some extreme droughts. Droughts cause great economic losses and affect grain production, thus preventing adequate supply to the domestic market. The objective of this study was to perform a regional frequency analysis to estimate the return period of extreme droughts at Anzoátegui, Cojedes, Portuguesa, and Guárico States as the study unit (SU). It included identification of homogeneous regions according to the frequency distribution of the annual precipitation at the SU, determination of the regional growth curve in the homogeneous regions, and mapping of the return period of extreme dry years in the SU. It was found that the SU has six homogeneous sub-regions according to the distribution of annual rainfall; the probability distribution function that best fits the annual rainfall records in the SU is the Generalized Normal, followed by the Pearson type III; the watershed of rivers Unare and Manzanares (northern Anzoátegui) and the geographical axis San Juan-Guanipa (northeastern Anzoátegui), the watershed of river Manapire (Guárico) and the plains “Morichal Largo” (southern Anzoátegui) have the highest risk of occurrence of dry years.

A B S T R A C T According to the report of the disaster management center, during the last forty years from 1974 to 2014, country faced flood impact several times (48.5%). Every year at least one of the areas of Sri Lanka faces flood impact due to heavy rainfall. Northern Province of Sri Lanka faces many challenges caused by flood frequently. The main objective of this study is to analyze the spatial and seasonal pattern of the flood occurrences in the Northern

Se presentan las acciones que se generaron a partir de la sequia del periodo 2010-2012 en Mexico, la cual fue el detonador para un cambio paradigmatico en la manera de atender este fenomeno, al pasar de la reaccion frente a las emergencias hacia un modelo preventivo orientado a la gestion del riesgo. En ese contexto se formulo una politica publica nacional al respecto, donde el Programa Nacional contra la Sequia (Pronacose) se constituyo en el eje rector. Los fundamentos de este programa —prevencion y mitigacion— constituyen las bases sobre las cuales se busca mejorar la gestion versus las sequias y fortalecer las capacidades locales para afrontar sus impactos con estrategias adecuadas. Este esfuerzo de la administracion publica federal se inserta, aporta y retroalimenta a los esfuerzos internacionales que la Organizacion Meteorologica Mundial, Convencion contra la Desertificacion de Naciones Unidas, Fondo Mundial para la Alimentacion, Global Water Partnership y otros organismos de ...

The basic features of the Naghamish Basin and agro-ecosystem in the North West Coastal Zone of Egypt (climate, soils and vegetation cover) are mapped to analyse the wear and tear of physical components of the environment of three tribes ' territories between 2006 and 2011 when a dry spell struck. Our land use mapping and results using RS and GIS indicate considerable and quick changes in the agricultural and biotic components in spite of an inter-annual long-term the following drought (1996-2011) perceived by the farmer and Bedouin communities is real and connrmed by our land cover mapping changes of the Nagamish watershed. The communities are correct in their perception of the drought and are deeply aaected in their economy and social life.

During the warmer Holocene Period, two major climatic crises affected the Central African rainforests. The first crisis, around 4000 cal yr BP, caused the contraction of the forest in favor of savanna expansion at its northern and southern periphery. The second crisis, around 2500 cal yr BP, resulted in major perturbation at the forest core, leading to forest disturbance and fragmentation with a rapid expansion of pioneer-type vegetation, and a marked erosional phase. The major driver of these two climatic crises appears to be rapid sea-surface temperature variations in the equatorial eastern Atlantic, which modified the regional atmospheric circulation. The change between ca. 2500 to 2000 cal yr BP led to a large increase in thunderstorm activity, which explains the phase of forest fragmentation. Ultimately, climatic data obtained recently show that the present-day major rise in thunderstorms and lightning activity in Central Africa could result from some kind of solar influence, a...

Environmental disasters in the pre-modern Middle East were replete in occurrence and rife with consequence. From the awful mortalities of the Black Death to the visitations of cold and desiccation in the little Ice Age, all manner of tragedies struck the inhabitants of this part of the world, leaving scarcely a single generation untouched by major calamity. Disasters brought suffering and left memories of their trauma, passed along in narratives that color the historical chronicles. But disasters also brought change – for good or for ill-some of it profound and long-term in nature. Scholars of the Middle East have only recently become aware of how closely environmental disasters are tied in to long-term historical change. Furthermore, these same disasters tell us a great deal about these changes themselves. Disasters open for us windows of perception, through which we can see with awestruck clarity. It is in this light that we can at times see causation and consequence via interpretive examination of centuries' old tragedies. This workshop will foster research into the history of these environmental disasters in the Middle East, focusing on Mamluk Egypt and Syria, 1250 to 1517 CE. There is much ground to cover and fertile terrain for innovative research. While Mamluk Egypt is recognized for its wealth of sources for environmental disaster, it is becoming increasingly clear that the body of evidence for Mamluk Syria is even richer – and much of this wholly untilled. 1 This workshop hopes to 1 As example: the rather astonishing body of statistical evidence for the Black Death's mortality in Damascus and Aleppo.

Iraq, including Erbil Province in the Kurdistan region, has severely suffered drought events in the past, particularly during the last two decades. This study incorporated Geoinformation technology into assessing and monitoring drought's severity and impacts that affected Erbil province in a span from 1998 to 2017. Twenty mosaics of two Landsat scenes for 20 years have accomplished for this study. Two spectral drought indices, the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) and the Temperature Condition Index (TCI), were extracted using 20 Landsat images mosaics to assess the drought's severity and impacts. Statistical correlation analyses computed between the NDVI, TCI, and the study variables, such as climatic factors, field crop area, and field crop yield. The study findings clarified that Erbil province experienced severe to extreme severe agricultural droughts, which caused significant reductions in crop yields,

The purpose of this study is to evaluate the impact of climate uncertainties on maize irrigation requirements, grown on a Vertisol
soil, Sofia’s field, Bulgaria. Through the validated WinIsareg model, four irrigation scheduling alternatives are simulated for the
years of “very high“, “high“ and “average“ irrigation demands of past (1952–1984) and present (1970–2004) climate. Adaptation
of irrigation scheduling to the present climate conditions during the “very dry“ years (PI ≤12%) consists of an extension of the
irrigation season by 15–20 days and a need of additional irrigation relative to alternative 1 and two irrigation events at alternatives
2 and 3. During the past climate alternatives 2 and 3 led to savings of 30 mm of water, while up to the current climate conditions
the three irrigations alternatives should provide 360 mm of irrigation water. To obtain maximum yields in “dry“ (PI = 12–30%) years,
irrigation season should end by 05/09, as in the present climate, irrigation season has shifted about a week earlier for the three
alternatives. In the “average“ (PI = 30–60%) years the adaptation consist in accurately determination of the last allowed date for
irrigation.
Keywords: irrigation scheduling, maize, climate change, water management, yield

The intensification of climate change has led to the degradation of thousands of arable lands through desertification and extreme weather events. The Danube River basin in the Galati-Braila region, SE Romania, is a transboundary area of community and international importance, increasingly affected by drought, water, and wind erosion. Consequently, the aim of this study is to evaluate the main physical and hydro-physical parameters of soils, implied in water storage and with a defining role in erosion intensity, nutrients and toxicants cycle and availability, and crops yield. Soil samples were collected both in the disturbed and undisturbed state, from Smardan, Sendreni, and Vadeni agricultural lands and riparian areas of semiaquatic ecosystems, located in the vicinity of the steel platform of the Galati industrial area. Specific laboratory methods of investigation and formulas were used. Chernozems (CZ), Fluvisols (AS), and Gleysols (GS) of different subtypes and various physico-chemical parameters were identified. The results suggested that CZ are of coarse and medium texture, while AS and GS are medium-fine and fine textured. In correlation with this, bulk density values range from extremely low-low to low-high classes. In relation to soil physical parameters and the content of organic matter, hydro-physical indices show water supply imbalances. Through the approached theme, the study is of practical importance for sustainable management of the soil, agricultural projects, and landscaping. This study provides government authorities and non-governmental organizations an overview of the local and regional soil conditions, so that new measures can be regulated to protect it against irrational use.

Conserving and saving water during droughts need a special attitude and great attention. Because according to a variety of studies conducted, nowadays our demand and need for water far exceed the amount of water resources available in different areas. As a result, in order to cope with this crisis, it is necessary to use water-recycling systems, reduce demands, employ optimal equipment for water consumption and use other methods which will be discussed in this study.

Th e paper touches on the economic and political issues connected to
water shortages in Asia, including droughts, and the economic consequences of the lack of quality water. Access to water is a global economic and political challenge and it’s predicted to continue to be important issue for many countries because in the coming years we will be seeing rising water demand, on par with demographic growth. Water will become an increasingly valuable resource, especially in Asia. The data presented in the article based on statistics of water sources, total water withdrawal, access to drinking water, water consumption per capita, access to piped water indicate that Asian countries are prone to potential political conflicts caused by the struggle for water. In summary, since in Asia are no systematic evaluations of the negative eff ects of water-related problems for economies there is a need to create more accurate calculations and contingency plans. For this purpose such measures should be introduced in Asian countries.

El problema de las drogas se ha convertido en uno
de los grandes flagelos de la humanidad, por ello los
países del mundo se han unido para llevar a cabo políticas,
estrategias y proyectos cuyo principal objetivo
es contrarrestar este fenómeno; debido a esto, surge
la inquietud respecto al futuro de la política antidrogas
en Colombia y la influencia que sobre ella ejercen
los Estados Unidos, la Unión Europea y la Organización
de Naciones Unidas; no obstante, la Policía Nacional
establece la incidencia de las políticas internacionales
sobre esta problemática mundial, al igual
que las características de las estrategias y acciones
que despliega para combatir este fenómeno.

The world drug problem has been one of the biggest
scourges for humanity. Due to this, countries from all
over the world are getting efforts together in order
to create policies, strategies and projects to fight that
phenomenon. As a consequence, a question arises
regarding the future of the Colombian drug policy,
which is influenced by the United States, the European
Union and the United Nations. Nevertheless, the
Colombian National Police establishes de impact of
international policies on this global issue, as well as
the characteristics of the strategies and actions that it
unfolds to combat this phenomenon.

Traditionally, drought effects in Mexico have been attended through governmental reactive efforts directed to provide water and food, to assure health protection, and to restore economic impact once the phenomena occurred. The Mexican Government through National Water Commission (CONAGUA, for its acronym in Spanish), interested in changing the paradigm for preventive actions to cope with droughts in Mexico in the past, decided to launch in 2013 the National Program Against Drought (PRONACOSE, for its acronym in Spanish) and created the Intersecretarial Commission on Droughts and Floods (CIASI, for its acronym in Spanish) to take charge of coordinating, implementing and following-up of the PRONACOSE. This program has its main focus on reducing vulnerability through the implementation of planned preventive actions under a comprehensive and participative approach. As key part of the program, Programmes of Preventive and Mitigation Drought Measures (PMPMS, for its acronym in Spanish) for each one of the 26 river basin councils established in the country and for the principal cities of Mexico were developed. These programmes include the measures that can be implemented within the river basin councils and the cities to cope with drought in three ways: before the phenomenon occurs (strategic measures), when it is starting (tactical measures) or when it is already happening (emergency measures). Also, since 2014, the National Meteorological Service (SMN, for its acronym in Spanish) releases timely alerts and monitors the evolution of the drought including affected areas and level of severity of the phenomenon at a basin, state and municipality level. It is noteworthy that in all these activities the Mexican Institute of Water Technology (IMTA, for its acronym in Spanish) has played an important role, as this institute has provided the necessary technical support for the designing and implementation of the PRONACOSE. It is concluded that drought risk cannot be fully eliminated, nevertheless the actions that are implemented as part of this program are useful to mitigate its effects.

El cambio climático está provocando una intensificación en la variabilidad climática natural, con un aumento en la frecuencia y severidad de las sequías en muchas partes del mundo. El peligro por sequía se refiere a la probabilidad de que ocurra un evento de sequía en un espacio y tiempo determinados con suficiente intensidad como para producir daños; la vulnerabilidad ante la sequía es el grado en que un sistema es susceptible e incapaz de hacer frente a los efectos adversos, daños o perjuicios causados por este fenómeno natural; y el riesgo por sequía está determinado por la confluencia del peligro y la vulnerabilidad. Con base en estos conceptos, en este artículo se presentan los resultados de la aplicación de una metodología desarrollada por los autores para determinar índices municipales de peligro, vulnerabilidad y riesgo por sequía en México. Los resultados indican que la metodología es viable para su aplicación a nivel nacional, e inclusive puede ser adaptado para aplicarse a nivel estatal o regional. Su principal ventaja es que se basa en un procedimiento analítico objetivo que permite identificar los municipios más vulnerables desde los puntos de vista económico, social y ambiental, y aquellos con mayor propensión y riesgo de ser afectados por sequía. Se concluye que los resultados obtenidos pueden ser útiles para los tomadores de decisiones y los responsables de formular políticas públicas en varios sentidos, tales como: establecer prioridades en la implementación de medidas de prevención y mitigación; entender dónde y cómo mejorar las capacidades de adaptación; entender dónde y cómo disminuir la exposición y la sensibilidad; y, en última instancia, optimizar la distribución de recursos de los diversos programas gubernamentales orientados al desarrollo social, los cuales contribuyen al fortalecimiento de capacidades para hacer frente a los fenómenos hidrometeorológicos extremos y a la adaptación al cambio climático.

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Resumo As terras secas são espaços naturais com paisagens marcadas pela escassez hídrica. O atual contexto mundial de mudanças climáticas, essas regiões apresentam tendência ao aumento na ocorrência e magnitude de fenômenos como a estiagem e seca. Os municípios do Semiárido brasileiro possuem maior recorrência destes fenômenos. O Estado brasileiro tem atuado através de ações e políticas públicas que auxiliam esses municípios e suas populações no enfrentamento e convivência a esses fenômenos e seus efeitos. Entre essas, destaca-se a Operação Pipa (OP), que possibilita o acesso à água potável. O objetivo deste estudo foi realizar uma análise espacial e comparativa entre os decretos de Situação de Emergência (SE)/Estado de Calamidade Pública (ECP) e a atuação da OP na Paraíba nos anos de 2012-2016. A metodologia empregada foi a Análise Espacial e Cartográfica que utilizou as informações da OP, oriundas do Comando Militar do Nordeste, e os decretos de SE/ECP por estiagem/seca, disponíveis no S2iD do Ministério do Desenvolvimento Regional. Os resultados indicam a extensão e os impactos da última grande seca, o qual mais de 90% dos municípios do estado tiveram as SE reconhecidas, já em relação à OP, esta esteve presente em mais de 70% dos municípios da Paraíba. Abstract Drylands are natural spaces with landscapes marked by water scarcity. In the current global context of climate change, these regions tend to increase in the occurrence and magnitude of phenomena such as dry and drough. The municipalities of the Brazilian semiarid have higher recurrence of these phenomena. The Brazilian State has acted through actions and public policies that help these municipalities and their populations to face and live with these phenomena and their effects. Among these, Operação Pipa (OP) stands out, which provides access to drinking water. The objective of this study was to perform a spatial and comparative analysis between the Decrees of Emergency Situation (SE) / State of Public Disaster (ECP) and the actuation of the OP in Paraíba in the years 2012-2016. The methodology used was the Spatial Analysis and Cartographic that used the OP information, coming from the Military Command of the Northeast and SE decrees / ECP by dry and drought available in S2iD by Ministry of Regional Development. The results indicate the extent and impacts of the last drought, which more than 90% of the municipalities in the state had their SEs recognized, in relation to the OP, this was present in more than 70% of the municipalities in Paraíba. Resumen Las tierras secas son espacios naturales con paisajes marcados por la escasez de agua. En el contexto global actual del cambio climático, estas regiones tienden a aumentar la ocurrencia y la magnitud de fenómenos como la sequía. Los municipios del semiárido brasileño tienen una mayor recurrencia de este fenómeno. El Estado brasileño ha actuado a través de acciones y políticas públicas que ayudan a estos municipios y sus poblaciones a enfrentar y vivir este fenómeno y sus efectos. Entre estos, se destaca la Operação Pipa (OP), que permite el acceso al agua potable. El objetivo de este estudio fue realizar un análisis espacial y comparativo entre los decretos de Situación de Emergencia (SE) / Estado de calamidad pública (ECP) y la acción de la OP en Paraíba en los años 2012-2016. La metodología utilizada fue el Análisis espacial y cartográfico que utilizó la información de la OP, del Comando Militar del Nordeste, y los decretos SE/ECP debido a la sequía, disponibles

Anthropogenic climate change is expected to alter the balance of interspecific interactions, modifying neighbourhood dynamics and community structure. However, the effects of climate- driven evolution on plant interspecific interactions are not known. It is widely assumed that climate-driven evolution increases competitive ability of an organism within its community. Conversely, research at Buxton Climate Change Impacts Laboratory (BCCIL) shows experimental drought drives evolution of decreased plant productivity.
Using microcosm experiments the impacts of climate-mediated evolution on interspecific interactions were investigated. Individuals of Festuca ovina were taken from drought and control plots at BCCIL. Sexual reproduction ensued to create F1 progeny with known ancestry (control, drought and hybrid). The microcosm experiment used the F1 progeny in communities with three other plant species. Two-month drought treatment was applied to half of the microcosms. Above ground biomass of all four species was collected, weighed and analysed.
F. ovina individuals with pure drought ancestry from BCCIL had significantly reduced biomass production than control ancestry plants. Microcosm drought significantly suppressed biomass production of F. ovina of control ancestry, but not drought ancestry. F. ovina biomass was negatively correlated with Koeleria macrantha within the microcosms.
The microcosm drought results suggest inheritance of drought relevant traits. This suggests an evolved response of decreased plant productivity that allows F. ovina to successfully continue biomass production through chronic drought. This response does not increase fitness short term but allows for species persistence under changing environmental conditions. Decreased plant productivity impacts potential competitive ability within the ecological community thereby impacting interspecific interactions.

Human lives have always been subject to different natural risks and dangers throughout the history all over the world.  Drought, meanwhile, is strikingly common and of high importance of all. Drought is a worldwide phenomenon, which could happen everywhere throughout the world and lead to major economic, social as well as environmental losses and costs.
Drought has two effects, direct and indirect. Agricultural products decrease, deforestation, risk of fire, water level drop, and wildlife losses could be some impacts of drought. The result of direct effects would be indirect effects. For instance, the reduction of agricultural products and fertility of forests and grasslands could possibly decrease the income of farmers and increase the prices of food products, wood, unemployment, crime as well as increasing the immigration. In general the effects of drought could be divided into economical, environmental and social impacts.
As graphical display contributes largely to the better understanding of the problem, efforts have been made to take advantage of the technique in this study. One of the well-known graphical technique is FAST (Functional Analysis Systems Technique) diagram. The FAST diagram is one of the important tools in value engineering in analyzing and recognizing of the problem. In addition, as this graph depicts the relationship of system functions graphically, contributes largely in solving the system problems as well as improving the system efficiency. 
The purpose of this study is to investigate the direct and indirect effects of drought based on this diagram, having defined the application as well as plotting the FAST diagram. In the end, special emphasis will be put on the environment using this diagram.