India’s strategic future: 2025

Futures 36 (2004) 811–821 www.elsevier.com/locate/futures India’s strategic future: 2025 Sundeep Waslekar a, Semu Bhatt a,b, a b Strategic Foresight Group, Mumbai, India C-306, Montana, Lokhandwala Complex, Andheri West, Mumbai 400 053, India Abstract Based on the geopolitical developments in India’s neighbouring countries and India’s response to them, this paper depicts four scenarios—Storms and Fires, Rainbow in the Sky, Light and Shadows and Across Space. Each scenario explores a set of possible events and the consequences triggered by it. While Storms and Fires is based on the rise of a sharp nationalist Indian sentiment in the face of heightened security tensions in the region, Across Space outlines the future of India’s worldview shaped by the present government’s policy of US primacy. Light and Shadows is based on differential policy towards neighbours—conflict with Pakistan and cooperation with other neighbours. This scenario is predicated on the supremacy of economic objectives whereas Rainbow in the Sky is based on the regional cooperation as the primary guiding force of the Indian foreign policy. Though major geopolitical events in its neighbourhood will impact the immediate future of India, India’s response and internal strengths and weaknesses will determine its long-term future. It is therefore essential for the country to develop a well considered trajectory of its strategic options for the next 25 years. # 2004 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. 1. Introduction As India’s neighbourhood enters an era of uncertainty with the war on terror launched in October 2001, India’s future in the coming decades is bound to be influenced as much by geopolitical factors, as much as its initiatives in the area of economic, social, political and judicial reforms. While economic, social and political reforms are very much within the realm of choices that India can make, it is necessary to examine if and to what extent India can influence the emerging geopolitical outlook or vice versa.  Corresponding author. Tel.: +91-022-2639-5980, 2631-8260. E-mail address: [email protected] (S. Bhatt). 0016-3287/$ - see front matter # 2004 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. doi:10.1016/j.futures.2003.12.008 812 S. Waslekar, S. Bhatt / Futures 36 (2004) 811–821 India’s strategic future has to be examined in numerous ways: . In light of the present world order where the United States has supremacy in military, ideology and economy; NATO is the predominant military coalition in the world; democracy is at least notionally accepted as the universal ideology of governance; free market is the dominant instrument of conducting economic relations; and technology is the greatest driver of economic growth. . On the basis of a phase in the world history when new rules of the conduct of international relations are being framed with doctrine of pre-emption, subordination of sovereignty and primacy of prosperity; where the nation-state remains the primary principle of organising societies, though it is increasingly challenged by forces within and outside its control; where economics and information have emerged, in addition to the military, as the main currencies of power. . As an extension of an era when the theatre of primary geopolitical action has shifted from Europe to Asia, providing India with both, a challenge and an opportunity to influence the shape of the decade to come. In the new realities, India will not only be affected by developments in its immediate neighbourhood, but also by developments in its extended neighbourhood of Central and West Asia, as well as in its de facto neighbour, US. India’s strategic neighbours are equally relevant as India’s immediate neighbours in assessing its geopolitical outlook for the future. 2. Drivers In order to assess the strategic future of India, it is important to identify the set of drivers, which will influence it, for better or worse. They are identified on the basis of Strategic Foresight Group’s five-G framework of: . . . . . Growth Governance God Geopolitics Globalisation The drivers are: . . . . . . . . American Ambitions in Asia Chinese resurgence Destabilisation and eventual break up of Pakistan Global terrorism Primacy of economics as a major driver of world policy Energy security Subordination of sovereignty Economic liberalisation in India S. Waslekar, S. Bhatt / Futures 36 (2004) 811–821 813 . India’s national politics and governance . Communal and ethnic issues Each of these drivers is viewed with reference to their implications for India. The interaction between these drivers will determine the strategic future of India. 3. Scenarios In view of India’s aspirations, constraints and limits imposed by the drivers, four geopolitical scenarios have been prepared: . . . . Storms and fires Rainbow in the sky Light and shadows Across space 3.1. Scenario I: Storms and fires This scenario is based on heightened tensions in the South Asian region, coupled with India’s aggressively nationalist orientation. Scores of uneducated, poor Pakistani youth are attracted to the jihadi groups, either for the want of employment or under the influence of religious preaching. Jihadi forces grow from 150,000–200,000 in 2003 to nearly half million by 2010. Influence of religious parties rise significantly, especially in NWFP and Balochistan. Growth of Islamic radicalism, coupled with poverty leads to sectarian and ethnic conflicts. Tribal leaders in rural areas, specially those bordering Afghanistan, reject the dominion of the federal government. Government institutions become dysfunctional. Law and order breaks down. Incoherency within the army increases, due to growing conflicts between pro jihadi and pro US groups. With industrial focus shifting from Sindh to Punjab and water levels reaching their threshold, inter provincial rivalries, especially between Punjab and Sindh, over the issues of allocation of developmental funds and water, hit an all time high. Jeay Sindh Quami Movement is revived. Pashtun speaking areas of western Pakistan seek integration with Afghanistan. Deteriorating inter-provincial relations, government failure, growing stronghold of jihadi culture and a weakening army, makes Pakistan a hotbed of Islamic extremism. Militant outfit Lashker-e-Taiba grows substantially and finds a significant role in national politics. Pakistan exports terrorism to India and other adjacent areas, including Xinjiang province of China. Terrorism and violence in Kashmir reaches an all time high. The peace process with Pakistan breaks down. India is forced to take stringent actions along the LoC. Indian defence expenditure increases many folds under the perceived threat of attack by a disintegrating Pakistan. US and other major powers urge restraint and make futile efforts for resolution and peace between the two major countries of the region. In the view of prevailing anarchy, disintegration of Pakistan becomes imminent. 814 S. Waslekar, S. Bhatt / Futures 36 (2004) 811–821 By 2010, with its imminent collapse looming large, Pakistan strikes India to consolidate its domestic failure. US makes swift military moves to pre-empt a nuclear outbreak and takes over Pakistan’s nuclear assets. Pakistan disintegrates. Nepal keeps on switching between democracy and monarchy. This careening nullifies any hope for development. Poverty levels rise, leading to extreme rise in Maoist violence. By 2010, Nepal slides into anarchy. Bangladesh continues with democracy. But political rivalry between the two major political parties, weak government institutions, lack of democratic consensus and economic crisis creates a void, which the religious parties happily fill in. This further stalls the economic reforms. Growing influence of Harkat-ul-Jihad-al-Islami (HUJI) reflects the rise of Islamic radicalism. HUJI and other religious parties object to the exploitation of natural gas reservoirs for export purpose. Infiltration of religious fundamentalists into India flares up the border issue. By 2010, Bangladesh becomes one of the poorest countries of the world. India faces heightened violence, terrorism activities and communal tensions. It also finds it difficult to manage refugee influx from its north-western and eastern border. Maoist insurgents from Nepal and Islamic radical insurgents from Bangladesh lead to alarmingly high level of violence in the eastern states. India blames Myanmar and Bangladesh for encouraging insurgencies and providing asylum to the rebel groups. India takes repressive steps to manage internal security problems. With its basic focus being on averting law and order crisis, India pays scanty attention to economy and development. Huge numbers of refugees burden the economy. Growth rate slackens. Internal turmoil scares away Foreign Direct Investments. India experiences brain drain on a large scale. Also, economic stagnation alienates the more dynamic Indian states from the Central government. Thus, the repressive measures used by Indian government to curb violence and economic neglect leads to distancing of states from the centre. India’s population demands for stringent action to stop infiltration. India adopts a hawkish approach to deal with the situation. It employs Border Security Force on sensitive borders to halt refugee flow and other insurgencies. It legislates stringent security laws like The Prevention of Terrorism Act (POTA) and Terrorist and Disruptive Activities (Prevention) Act (TADA). India’s myopic approach vis-à-vis its neighbours compounds the already existing tensions in South Asian region. Instead of being a major power influencing regional stability, India becomes a source of concern for it. With most of its member states facing internal turmoil, SAARC becomes a nonentity. US provides India with the much sought for economic and political support. US wrestles the opportunity to align India with US as a strategic counterbalance against an economically resurgent China. US builds air bases on Indian homeland and makes permanent US naval presence in Indian Ocean. A disgruntled China, after losing a great deal of political and monetary investment in Pakistan, adopts a wait and watch policy vis-à-vis India, and focuses even harder on its own internal development. India blames China for not restraining Pakistan and thereby loses a tremendous trade opportunity with China. A strong Russia gets interested towards its old ally. S. Waslekar, S. Bhatt / Futures 36 (2004) 811–821 815 India lags behind in the race of development. Growing discontent amongst population due to poverty, unemployment, violence and repression provides thrust to separatist movements like Azad Kashmir and Khalistan movements on its north-eastern and north-western frontiers. By 2025, while countries like China, Russia, South East Asia, Iran and even a consolidated Sri Lanka become major players of world economic power, India tries hard to achieve its 2003 status. 3.2. Scenario II: Rainbow in the sky This scenario is based on an outward looking Indian approach, whereby India acknowledges the importance of regional stability for its own growth. India attaches utmost importance to promote peace and stability in the region. It undertakes several confidence-building measures, including socio-economic exchanges, to improve relations with its neighbours. India’s foreign policy aims to strengthen SAARC into a powerful economic unit. Pakistan, under severe US pressure, grabs the peace initiatives initiated by India in 2003. It seeks major political and economic reforms. It cracks down on terrorist outfits and blocks insurgents from entering into Indian territory. Nepal and Bangladesh ride high on the peace process and internal development. Sri Lanka, rid of its conflicts, focuses completely on economic development. Bhutan and Maldives concentrate on governance and development issues. South Asia rejects conflicts and opts for cooperative development and stability of the region. Cultural and commercial exchanges between the conflicting countries as confidence building measures reduce the demand for warfare. SAARC strengthens due to increased multifaceted cooperation amongst its member nations. A powerful SAARC ensures the regional energy cooperation. Pipelines from Central Asia and Iran via Pakistan imports natural gas. Similarly, hydroelectric power is made available from Nepal and Bhutan. A massive network of road, rail and air routes link the SAARC member countries, providing the much-needed inter-state connectivity for transportation of goods. Trans Asian Highway and Railway becomes a reality. With all member states signing the South Asian Free Trade Agreement, South Asia emerges as a strong trade unit. SAARC converts into a free trade zone, thereby attracting major foreign direct investments. International trade and commerce brings prosperity and stability to the region. Economically strong and politically stable South Asia encourages US to enter into a close strategic and trade partnership with it. India rid of security concerns, focuses hard on political and economic overhaul. Peace with Pakistan leads to release of more funds for internal development. Pakistan bestows Most Favoured Nation status upon India. Trade and commerce increases extensively between India and Pakistan. Also, social, cultural and commercial exchanges between the two countries erode hostility and raise a popular demand for a mutually accepted resolution of the Kashmir dispute. Pakistan ceases to be a safe haven for Indian fugitives. Sri Lanka, with its developed banking and service sector becomes the manufacturing hub for India. Trincomalee port of Sri Lanka serves as a transit station for Indian goods. Sri Lanka becomes an outpost for Indian trade. The conflict free atmosphere, stable political system, accessibility 816 S. Waslekar, S. Bhatt / Futures 36 (2004) 811–821 to resources, cheap labour and open economy, attracts massive influx of FDI and foreign trade to India. India establishes many free trade zones within the country and becomes a member of ASEAN and other regional economic groups of world. It signs successful energy accords with Bangladesh and Nepal. A natural gas pipeline is constructed from Bangladesh to India. India also extends its diplomacy to initiate strong ties with Persian Gulf states, specifically Iran, to secure its energy requirements. Good relations with Iran and Pakistan help India to improve relations with other Islamic countries in the region. It attains membership of Organisation of Islamic Conference. India views China as a major target for exports and disassociates the border problem from the commercial realm. China becomes a huge export market for India’s food due to the decline of China’s farm sector and the growth of its industrial base. Relations with China strengthens because of strong economic and trade ties, plus convergence of interest in protection of energy sources and routes as well as the stability of the region. India’s trade with the Europe, especially France and Germany, increases manifold. Japan enters into economic and political agreements with India to check the looming Chinese power. The heightened economic activities reflect in high growth rate, increase in per capita income and domestic development. India utilises its newfound economic dynamism for the upliftment of rural areas and to reduce poverty. High growth encourages stability and development. India emerges as the knowledge super power and IT powerhouse of the world. This in turn makes India home to the back offices of many global companies, providing plenty of employment opportunities to the Indian youth. Also, the operational dependency of global companies on India forces the major powers to have good relations with India. In 2025 India is the third largest economy in the world, after US and China, with its share to global output ranging between 12–15%. High growth rate, increasing technological capabilities, efficient democracy and growing influence in the region encourage strong relations with the US. The enhanced economic ties also help to cement the Indo-US alliance. Indo-US military cooperation rises extensively. US engages India into strong strategic partnership focusing particularly on the subcontinent security. The revitalized Indo-US bilateral relations assumes on an equal basis, without the predominance of one partner over the other. India emerges not only as an Asian power, but also as an important global player. It uses its growing influence and strong relations with major powers for the betterment of the region. US, its allies and India form a coalition against terrorism. Also, the nations with nuclear capabilities form a forum to discuss the safeguarding of nuclear weapons and non-proliferation issues. India uses its newfound status to successfully contend for a permanent seat in UN Security Council. India, at last, acquires the clout befitting to the world’s largest democracy. 3.3. Scenario III: Light and shadows This scenario is based on a differential Indian policy towards its neighbours. While India continues a conflictual relationship with Pakistan it builds close S. Waslekar, S. Bhatt / Futures 36 (2004) 811–821 817 relations with its eastern neighbours and the region beyond. India’s main foreign policy objective is to build economic cooperation. Anarchy prevails in Pakistan. Islamic extremism is at an all time high. Inter provincial rivalries add to the already failing law and order situation. The authority of the government is openly disregarded. Army is engaged in solving its own internal turmoil between pro jihadi and pro US groups. Pakistan faces a threat to its integrity. Peace initiatives introduced in 2003 breaks off. India deploys huge numbers of soldiers on the border to check infiltration. SAARC weakens due to hostility between its two major member countries. Lack of regional cooperation also slows the pace of economic liberalisation within SAARC. Also the animosity with Pakistan diminishes the chances of close trade links with Central and West Asia. Failure to strengthen economic relations. In this scenario, India has no choice but to look eastwards to continue inter-regional trade and commerce. During the same period, western and northern states of India, especially Gujarat, Rajasthan and Punjab, face severe water crisis. Scarcity of water slows down the industrial production in the western states. Increased unemployment and discontent against state authorities leads to agitations. The extremist elements infiltrating from Pakistan use the situation to spread violence. States enforce strict laws to deal with the situation. Large-scale displacement takes place. Investments divert to other parts of India. This provides an impetus to Indian policy makers to shift their attention towards the east. India adopts a ‘‘look east’’ policy. India seeks close ties with the multilateral ASEAN as well as diversified bilateral relations with individual South East Asian countries. Trade and investment remains the main areas of focus between India and ASEAN. The main sectors of cooperation are IT, telecom, transportation and infrastructure development. India sees South East Asia as a major market for Indian weaponry, and increases strategic alliance with them through joint defence projects. India’s active role as ASEAN Regional Forum member and the shared border of 1,600 kms with ASEAN countries also helps it bridge the strategic gap with the South East Asian nations. By 2025, India becomes a member of ASEAN and enjoys a very close economic and strategic partnership with the South East Asian countries. India also concentrates on other Regional Economic Groups (REG) in Asia like—Bangladesh, India, Myanmar, Sri Lanka and Thailand Economic Cooperation (BIMSTEC), Bay of Bengal Community (BOBCOM), the countries of MekongGanga Initiative and Indian Ocean Rim Association for Regional Cooperation (IOR-ARC)—to achieve quick interregional trade and commerce, as well as, to strengthen strategic relations with them. The formation of South Asia Growth Quadrangle comprising of Bhutan, Bangladesh, Nepal, and India (BBNI) keeps the economic and political relations ticking between these SAARC nations. Strengthened Indo-Myanmar economic relationship helps to contain drug trafficking along the border. It also provides for over-land trade via Myanmar to the eastern countries. The growing economies of South Korea and Japan find India as a potential market. With smooth trade relations with South Asian regional groups and ASEAN, India looks beyond to the tiger economy of Asia Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC). India increases political and economic collaboration with the 818 S. Waslekar, S. Bhatt / Futures 36 (2004) 811–821 APEC. Strong economic and political relations between India, South East Asia and Asia Pacific, becomes an influential factor in the Asian regional security. Enthused by its success in developing strong economic ties with South and East Asia, India seeks to promote economic relations with all major REGs in the world. India employs trade and commerce relations with Latin American Countries (LAC) and REGs therein, to exploit the non-tariff barriers offered by those countries. India’s cordial relations with South Africa serves as a platform to intensify collaborations with South African Development Community (SADC), Indian Ocean Commission (IOC), Common Market for Eastern and Southern Africa (COMESA), and Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS). India pursues extensive bilateral and multilateral trade with West Asia and North African (WANA) countries, which are the biggest source of crude oil for India. IndoIran relations blossom. In Iran, India finds a long-term source of hydrocarbon resources, as well as, a huge market for exports. India also uses Iranian transit routes to access Central Asian energy sources and markets. An economically resurgent India seeks to forge strong ties with North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) and looks for manifold increase in its commercial relations with the European Union (EU) and European Free Trade Association (EFTA). India seeks free trade agreements with LAC, EU and WANA. Sino-Indian relationship becomes extremely competitive. Both the countries compete to enhance their sphere of economic and political influence in Asia. IndoUS relations remain lukewarm. Whereas the economic component of the relationship sees an upward swing due to India’s close ties with ASEAN and APEC, US’ strategic focus mainly remains on maintaining regional stability and averting nuclear escalation in the region. India employs its relations with REGs to amass support for its stand on Kashmir. The eastern and southern regions of India experience an overwhelming growth process. The erstwhile backward eastern states now boast of good governance, highly developed infrastructure and increased employment opportunities. Even the rural areas experience the boom of growth. Reduction in unemployment and poverty, both in urban as well as rural areas, results in dissipation of extremist movements like National Socialistic Council of Nagaland, United Liberation Front of Assam, National Democratic Front of Bodoland, Bodo Liberation Tiger, etc. The region prospers. However, the north-western regions bordering Pakistan faces the consequences of political neglect. Increased poverty and unemployment force the youth to turn to anti-social activities. Crime rates are high. Persons with criminal records, who let the lawlessness prevail to meet their political ends, head the state governments. The growing economic inequities between south-eastern and northwestern states, distance them politically. Despite high growth rate, more than 40% of Indians live below the poverty line. India in 2025 is a mirror image of India of 2003. Economic vibrancy in some parts pushes it ahead, while poverty and violence in other parts pull it back to the third world. In short, India in 2025 preserves the tag of the most advanced third world country. S. Waslekar, S. Bhatt / Futures 36 (2004) 811–821 819 3.4. Scenario IV: Across space This scenario is based on the continuation of BJP policy of US primacy for the next 25 years, irrespective of the party in power. India keeps on persuading US for greater economic and strategic cooperation as a means to attain regional and global power status. It limits its interaction and cooperation with the neighbouring countries. Neighbours only mean a source of little inter regional trade and are more a security concern for India. India continues to strengthen bilateral ties with US, basically on the foundation of thriving commercial relations between the two countries. India undertakes major economic overhaul to remove impediments to trade and to draw large scale Foreign Direct Investment, especially from US. In 2003, US is India’s largest trading partner with US companies accounting for almost one-third of the total foreign investments coming to India. India aims at achieving two-fold increase in US foreign investments by the end of next decade. Also in 2003, US accounts for nearly 75% of IT and call centre outsourcing to India. This dependency increases with India’s rapid strides in the Information Technology sector. Economic reforms, IT superpower status, cheap and efficient labour and a vast market of more than one billion people, makes India the most preferred offshore destination for US businessmen. Indo-US cooperation also increases significantly in other sectors like energy, science and technology and other knowledge-based enterprises. Indo-US free trade agreement becomes likely. Extensive commercial relations and operational dependency of US companies on India arouses a need for developing a strategic alliance between India and US. Also, the large population of NRIs in the US lobby for strong Indo-US relations. Indo-US strategic alliance is based on the mutuality of interests in energy flow from the Gulf region, security and stability of the Indian Ocean and the South Asian region, and strategic containment of China. India’s geographic location at the juncture of all strategic regions of Asia makes it a perfect substitute for US’ subsiding dependence on Saudi Arabia, Japan and Pakistan. India views the alliance with US as a symbol of its growing clout, and a deterrence to the troubling neighbours, especially Pakistan. India and US overlook their disagreements on certain major issues in purview of reaching their mutual goals. End of this decade sees a heightened Indo-US defence and security cooperation with regular joint military exercises, intelligence sharing and counter terrorism activities. India and US works closely on issues like terrorism, nuclear proliferation, narcotics and human trafficking and stability and security of the subcontinent. The defence trade between the two countries increases extensively. US helps India in strengthening its military infrastructure. China, the global industrial powerhouse, sees the growing Indo-US cooperation in the Indian Ocean region as a threat to the smooth supply of Middle-Eastern oil. In response, China reduces its political and economic interaction with India and accelerates the building of its blue water navy with the help of Russia. It focuses on enhancing its influence in Russia and Central Asia. Russia and Saudi Arabia maintains commercial relations with India, but India’s closeness to US makes them 820 S. Waslekar, S. Bhatt / Futures 36 (2004) 811–821 wary to create any strategic alliance. Deterioration of Sino-Indian relations makes it difficult for Russia to balance its relations with both the countries. India reduces its military dependency on Russia. India and Israel come close economically as well as politically. The bilateral trade, defence cooperation and technology transfers intensify. India’s ties with a moderate and democratised Iran strengthen. A strong alliance emerges between US, India and Iran. India also develops good economic relations with the Middle Eastern countries having puppet governments set up by US. Japan and other South East Asian countries, especially Malaysia, strengthen economic ties with India to exploit the benefits of India’s market opportunities and new economic reforms, as well as to access the Indo-US nexus against growing economic and military might of China. Indo-Malaysian ties become strong with cooperation in IT, energy, human resource development and space technologies. Similar collaborations continue with LAC, especially Brazil and African regional economic groups. The rising Indian private sector investment and presence of a prosperous Indian community of about 1 million people in South Africa, brings the two nations very close by the mid decade. South Africa and India collaborate on highly economical defence production, maritime cooperation in the Indian Ocean and joint military research. India proves to be a dynamic market for South African trade surpluses whereas India views South Africa as a springboard to reach to other countries of the African continent, which boast of highest rates of returns on FDI in developing world. It maintains cordial economic and political relations with the European Union. However, closeness to US reduces the interest of France and Germany in India. Mired in political and economic crisis, close Indo-US alliance adds to Pakistan’s growing list of woes. And though the US continues to manage the usual bilateral ties with it, Pakistan decries the importance US attaches to India and sees it as a threat to its security. Anti US feelings increase substantially in Pakistan, providing impetus to the activities of Islamic radical elements therein. China incites an infuriated Pakistan. Pakistan tries to take revenge by increasing state sponsored terrorism and insurgencies in Kashmir. US makes futile effort to mediate and appease Pakistan. Amidst very volatile border situation between India and Pakistan, US declares Pakistan as a rogue state and makes it the immediate target of its war on terror. India provides US with military bases in its action against Pakistan. In a very swift US move, US bombers attack and capture Pakistan’s nuclear assets. Indo-US forces easily subdue a split Pakistani army. US sets up a puppet government in Islamabad. An ever so grateful India agrees for the permanent US bases in the region. Basic tenets of India’s foreign policy—non-alignment and multipolarity—are forgotten. India’s smaller neighbours, Nepal, Sri Lanka, Bangladesh and Bhutan, becomes dependant on India, which in turn tries to reduce them to satellite states. SAARC becomes weak and ineffectual. India prospers, at the cost of the neighbouring countries. Poverty and unemployment breed violence in these countries, which is transported to India. India also faces increased refugee influx from all of its borders. Thus, though India rides high on economic progress and domestic development, the threat to its internal security rises to a never before level. This in turn affects India’s economic prospects as well as global image. S. Waslekar, S. Bhatt / Futures 36 (2004) 811–821 821 India reaps the short-term economic and strategic benefits of its close alliance with the US. However, due to its negligence towards its neighbours, it loses out on its goal of making the subcontinent a stable, secure and economically vibrant region, which undermines its long-term prospects of becoming an economically and diplomatically vibrant power of Asia. 4. Conclusion Each of the scenarios has pros and cons. It is for India to decide which mix of advantages and disadvantages would be in its best interest. Though the events occurring in India’s geostrategic neighbourhood cannot be controlled by India, India’s response to them can be controlled. Whatever the choice, it would be in India’s interest to formulate a well-considered view whether it wants: to continue hostility towards neighbours, to develop cordial relations in neighbourhood, to evolve relationship with selected neighbours or to completely neglect its neighbouring countries. If the people of India want India to become a major power on the global arena, national consensus has to be developed to affect a more positive scenario. The four scenarios and the discussion above are based on our earlier publications (references [4–7,9]) and also draw upon references [1–3, 8]. References [1] Coalition for Action on South Asian Cooperation. SAARC: Vision for the second decade. New Delhi: Coalition for Action on South Asian Cooperation (CASAC); December 1995. [2] Kalam A.P.J. Abdul, Y.S. Rajan, India 2020: a vision for the new millennium, Penguin Books India (P) Ltd., 1998. [3] P. Schwartz, The art of the long view, John Wiley & Sons Ltd., England, 1998. [4] S. Waslekar, Shifting sands: Instability in undefined Asia, Strategic Foresight Group, Mumbai, 2003. [5] S. Waslekar, F. Ilmas, P. Leena, Rethinking India’s future: prosperity of the periphery, Strategic Foresight Group, Mumbai, 2002. [6] S. Waslekar, P. Leena, S. Shabnam, The future of Pakistan, Strategic Foresight Group, Mumbai, 2002. [7] S. Waslekar, Regional geopolitical outlook: 2002–2020, Confederation of Indian Industry, Delhi, 2002. [8] World Economic Forum. India economic summit 2002: India agenda monitor. World Economic Forum; 2002. [9] I. Futehally, S. Bhatt, Cost of conflict between India and Pakistan, Strategic Foresight Group, Mumbai, 2004.