Papers by Khalil U Rehman
Unpublished Dissertation, 2024
The response of Hamas to the decades old Israeli oppression was a surprise blow demonstrating an ... more The response of Hamas to the decades old Israeli oppression was a surprise blow demonstrating an ambition and a scale; not to mention the leadership, originality, innovation, audacity, complexity, sophistication, concealment, skills, covert-trade-craft, the feeding of false information into Mossad's mechanism and the resultant deception campaign, operational security, fire-power, drones, logistics, reserves, training, planning and the execution of the plan. Of course, not counting the compromised Mossad snitches in Gaza. The counter-intelligence success spoke for itself. There is no substitute for human intelligence. The Israeli imagination, assessment and analysis failed. The game of deception by Hamas outclassed the Mossad. The deceptive tactical activity in the West Bank achieved the strategic surprise in Gaza. It even forced redeployment of a brigade to the West Bank. The extraordinary breach of Israel's defences was incomprehensible and stunning, despite the sophisticated Unit8200 of the IDF Cyber Warfare Division, the tunnel detection system and Mossad's penetration of Gaza in the form of human assets. The Israeli idea of the integrated defence system collapsed. Hamas's insightful and penetrating originality brought down the Hi-tech superpower. The sub-Clausewitzian Hamas undermined the Israeli Clausewitzian deterrence in the Middle East. And notwithstanding the threat by Amihai Eliyahu, will Israel opt for the Samson Option against Gaza or Iran? This will ensure Pakistan becoming part of nuclear calculations which no one is talking about. The Israeli political, military and intelligence leadership is an embarrassing failure with serious perceptual problems. It is a big-time reset, reconstituted in a big way.
Research Paper, Jul 30, 2024
Artificial intelligence (AI) is an unusual affair, as opposed to usual concerns of a strategist. ... more Artificial intelligence (AI) is an unusual affair, as opposed to usual concerns of a strategist. Any serious quest is focused on the ascent of AI shifting the path of history. It is an era marked by an epochal transformation centred on the logic of machines and beyond. And beyond is scary, for if AI takes over, there is nothing to override it. Though hinted at but never admitted to, this is the dilemma. The transformative impact of AI is transforming societies, choices, art, culture, education, politics, economics, finance, industry, foreign policy, strategy, weapon systems, warfare, lawfare, besides, information and disinformation. Plus, an altered perception, thought, identity and reality, not to mention decision-making and life itself. AI is apervasive influence that acquires and grows too, though devoid of inquisitiveness, camaraderie, compassion and soul. It is a disruptive force forcing governments and corporations to scramble for an AI adaptation and to win its steeplechase. An enabler andnot a sphere, AI can be tailored-cut to reach a goal which is beyond the cognitive capacities of human mind. And mankind is on the cusp of yet another transcendence, compared to earlier transformations. Still, there is something out of joint in an evolving AI New-World-Order (NWO). It is an abstract and Kafkaesque undertaking. The momentum for an AI driven world is operational. Machine-learning is central to it. The race for a strategic AI advantage has commenced with a subtle political aim. The old paradigm is as good as gone. To recoil from exploring the strategic-frontiers of an AI based NWO is not an option. A cognitive-reappraisal is required to reset the set. The restyling of NWO with AI is as momentous as was the arrival of nuclear weapons. And the AI fame is already trading the prestige of chess.
Research Paper, Dec 2023
Hybrid warfare is an age-old concept of struggle. The tool-kit in vogue includes nar... more Hybrid warfare is an age-old concept of struggle. The tool-kit in vogue includes narratives, lawfare, viruses, gradual expansion, proxies, surveillance, drones, 5G technologies, economic blackmailing, assassinations, sabotage, subversion, secrecy, surprise, ethnic nationalism, sectarianism, manipulation of intolerance, coercive diplomacy, artificial intelligence, big-data, algorithms and the digital blitzkriegs in the cyber-space. The present context is a post-truth era where emotions prevail creating alternative facts, as opposed to inductive facts. The cognitive process of reasoning revolves around one’s beliefs and not truths. A narcissist control of truth-narrative is central to a crisis of legitimacy. This makes fact-free the contemporary post-truth strategic environment of hybrid warfare, a mixture of conventional and unconventional, plus an analytical construct too. The technological innovations have revolutionized this in an unfamiliar way. The integration of technologies remains. The concept of hybrid warfare resides in a grey-zone between black and white i.e., neither war nor peace. The distinction is blurred. The grey-zone is layered with disinformation, deception, false-narratives and fake-news. The success depends on a cold and logical mind-set in a low-intensity fifth-generation conflict to keep the other off-balance. Operational aims are harmonized with political goals and escalation is avoided. Hybrid warfare is sub-conventional geo-politics that is ambiguous and keeps the targeted perplexed. No response results in tactical defeats, while overplaying a hand ends-up as an irresponsible escalation. Also, information wars have structures that are part of hybrid warfare. Influence operations are directed to influence opinions in a post-truth era. The quality of these is on the rise. Holding one or the other responsible is difficult, not to mention deterring an opponent from playing a hard-ball. For one can escalate or deescalate without being part of it. Hybrid war does not take place in a given time-frame, yet long-term objectives are reached by keeping the pot boiling. Winning it is like winning a marathon that requires grit and resilience. It has emerged as an operational foreign policy instrument among nuclear powers in Eurasia. And an extended South Asia is no exception. Besides, creative imagination acts like a key in the conduct and countering of a hybrid war in a post-truth era. Likewise, a conductor has to be highly imaginative and impersonal to be a winner. Lastly, there is quite an unexplored academic for the scarcity of literature on the theme. No inductive research has been carried out on the subject as to why Pakistan is not winning and how to win it. Hopefully, this study will be of an academic value for Pakistan which is the target of a hybrid war by India in a post-truth era. The non-experts can take whatever makes them happy, as opposed to a disinterested specialist.
Research Paper, 2023
Historically, Kashmir’s otherworldly beauty and high-culture have been taking the brunt of oppres... more Historically, Kashmir’s otherworldly beauty and high-culture have been taking the brunt of oppression and repression since centuries. The many transformations, transcended by Kashmiri consciousness, range from being a serf to a dissenter, from defiant peasant to an armed insurgent, not to mention the stone-pelters’ enduring struggle for freedom. Likewise, whenever an awareness emerged and became a becoming, an unimaginable coercion and tyranny persisted alongside. It remains and lacerates from an occupation and annexation-lawfare, besides, the military and para-military apparatus that sustains it. The post-partition Cease Fire Line (CFL) is now the disputed Line of Control (LoC) between India and Pakistan, whereas, the British era delimited McMahon Line has become the Line of Actual Control (LAC) between India and China. The Sino-Indian rivalry is in the foreground with an Indo-US congruence in the background. Also, the greater context of dispute is the Hindu nationalist agenda objectively implemented by Modi-Amit duo in the spirit of M. S. Golwalkar, plus, the complex geo-political mixture of regional, extra-regional and global strategic environment. However, Kashmiri consciousness is a reality inductively validating the libertarian spirit. Vicissitudes of time taught Kashmiris the virtues of transcendent wisdom and restraint. The Kashmiri liberation struggle continues. It is a calling.
Research Paper, 2022
The history of the Indian subcontinent is replete with conquests and the ensuing empires. The las... more The history of the Indian subcontinent is replete with conquests and the ensuing empires. The last was the British Indian Empire secured and legitimized through various administrative and legal measures. Importantly, the control within and the projection of power without was armor-plated with lawfare as an instrument of statecraft. For example, after the victory in the Battle of Plassey in 1757 which was followed by the Mughal defeat in the Battle of Buxar in 1764-besides the Ring-Fence policy creating buffer zones the British initiated strategy of lawfare and inducted legal pluralism to defend commercial and strategic interests beyond their administered territories. The lawfare and legal pluralism allowed British to continue ahead after their initial policy of Ring-Fence that had restricted their rule to Bengal, Madras, and Bombay, as they advanced towards the high-perch in Delhi. And after securing Delhi in 1804 and the subsequent annexation of Punjab in 1849, the British likewise took actions to shelter British interests legally too. Lawfare in addition to its defensive nuances was deployed as an offensive apparatus to annex territories. The Doctrine of Lapse that challenged the traditional succession law was applied coldly and indifferently to enforce this policy. The Islamic laws administered under the Mughals as also Muslim and Hindu personal laws were targeted and changed. These ultimately paved the way for 1857 uprising and its crushing. This was followed by the consolidation of British laws that in essence displayed the sense and meaning of British lawfare. For the British lawfare, in fact, was part of British warfare.
Research Paper, 2022
Historically, religion, unity and justice in the Age of Empires were the basis of civilizations, ... more Historically, religion, unity and justice in the Age of Empires were the basis of civilizations, and not merely avowals of various civilizational worldviews. In the context, the growth of Islam and Muslims as opposed to Hindus in Hindustan is perceptible. Islam and the Islamic civilization in the various stages of its historical development and diffusion is part of history. The subsequent creation of Pakistan and India from the womb of Hindustan is fathomable too. Although Muslims and Hindus finally broke the British shackles, the threefold legacy of the British Indian Empire still endures. It includes foreign policy, the frontier policy and the Lawfare. Both India and Pakistan as residuary legatees of the British Indian Empire inherited the legacy in order of succession with the foreign policy going to India, the frontier policy to Pakistan and the two as co-sharers in the Lawfare. Besides, the idea to establish Islamic social justice system in Pakistan after the partition of British India is explored. Plus, the legacy of the British lawfare in the framework of development of legal system in Pakistan is analyzed too. Still, this paper is primarily the study of etymology of law in Pakistan.
Research Paper, 2021
Historically, for a millennium the invaders of Hindustan would start from Central Asia, secure th... more Historically, for a millennium the invaders of Hindustan would start from Central Asia, secure the Afghan Plateau as a strategic base and roll into Peshawar Valley through Khyber Pass, then cross the Indus River-and via Punjab-they would then wheel north into North India to establish empires. A secure Afghan Plateau was critical for the throne in Delhi. The frontier of the empire was kept secure through a strategy that historians call 'Mughal Era Frontier Policy'. Then the British disembarked on the southern coast of Hindustan. The Battle of Plassey proved decisive. Consequently, the British strategy tiptoed towards Delhi, as also the East India Company. After securing Delhi in 1804, besides defeating Ranjit Singh and the crushing of 1857 uprising, British took serious administrative and strategic measures to implement the 'Frontier Policy'. The policy in its essence was a 'three-fold frontier' with Czarist Russia as an adversary across the Amu River. Pakistan, on its creation, inherited the 'Frontier Policy' of British India and became a member of SEATO and CENTO, whereby Americans had a base at Badabher. The later Pak-US involvement in Afghanistan against the former Soviet Union and the post-9/11 War on Terror partnership were also in the context of Frontier Policy. The war has since transitioned from the War on Terror to the great power competition. Pakistan too has moved from the Frontier Policy to the New Frontier Policy. In the process, Pakistan and Russia have forged a new strategic partnership. A transactional relationship is not an alternative for an entente, especially in an era of great-power competition. Lastly, no inductive research has been done on the New Frontier Policy of Pakistan towards Russia. This paper will add to the knowledge on the subject with empiric-analytic reason as a method to analyse.
Research Paper, 2020
Historically, the sub-continent was a world in itself where empires were raised by the invaders o... more Historically, the sub-continent was a world in itself where empires were raised by the invaders of Hindustan for a millennium. The last was the British Indian Empire. The Hindu consciousness outlived these empires through an impersonal dissociation to preserve its consciousness, culture, value system and worldview. Nevertheless, the legacies of the invaders remain. The Indian foreign policy is the strategic demonstration of the British imperial foreign policy legacy to establish hegemony in South Asia. In its operational expression, India within and without has gone through occupations, annexations, wars and the fomenting of ethnic and sectarian troubles along with the secessionist insurgencies in the neighbouring countries. America is India's strategic partner in its pursuit of South Asian hegemony. The post 9/11 Indo-US nuclear agreement was the beginning of this formal global partnership. It has since expanded into an Indo-US Entente over the last two decades. Meanwhile, the world has transitioned to the Great Power competition with China squared-off against America and India. Pakistan has opened the strategic door for Russia by initiating a New Frontier Policy. Russia in the perception of Pakistan is a strategic partner across the Amu River. The New Frontier Policy is to the unease of Anglo-Saxons. China, Pakistan and Russia are upgrading ties, as the New Great Game continues unfolding with the twists added by the annexation of Kashmir, the Citizenship Act and Reorganization Order, the Sino-Indian clashes and Covid-19.
The Czarist Empire during the nineteenth century emerged on the scene as a Eurasian colonial powe... more The Czarist Empire during the nineteenth century emerged on the scene as a Eurasian colonial power challenging British supremacy, especially in Central Asia. The trans-continental Russian expansion and the ensuing influence were on the march as a result of the increase in the territory controlled by Imperial Russia. Inevitably, the Russian advances in the Caucasus and Central Asia were increasingly perceived by the British as a strategic threat to the interests of the British Indian Empire. These geo-political and geo-strategic developments enhanced the importance of Afghanistan in the British perception as a first line of defense against the advancing Russians and the threat of presumed invasion of British India. Moreover, a mix of these developments also had an impact on the British strategic perception that now viewed the defense of the NorthWest Frontier as a vital interest for the security of British India. The strategic imperative was to deter the Czarist Empire from having any direct contact with the conquered subjects, especially the North Indian Muslims. An operational expression of this policy gradually unfolded when the Princely State of Dir was loosely incorporated, but quite not settled, into the formal framework of the imperial structure of British India. The elements of this bilateral arrangement included the supply of arms and ammunition, subsidies and formal agreements regarding governance of the state. These agreements created enough time and space for the British to pursue colonial interests in
Abstract
The narrative is that a child was born on 14th August 1947 by the
name of Pakistan. The ... more Abstract
The narrative is that a child was born on 14th August 1947 by the
name of Pakistan. The little one was Muslim by birth and the rite
of saying azan in the ears of the newborn is an Islamic ritual.
However, this child went through the ritual of not one, but two
‘political’ azans. The First Azan was that of a nation-state with
well-defined frontiers where people have commonality of
interest, having national anthem and a flag, aspirations for the
future and a rational national interest to pursue within the
framework of High and Low politics. The Second Azan dictated
that Pakistan’s center of gravity is non-geographic, its focus and
essence is not confined to geography or space and that it will
have to answer to the call wherever it may occur or come from.
The Second Azan stood for pan-Islamism and pan-Islamic
aspirations. The two are totally contradictory. Pakistani
perception mixes one with the other, takes one for the other. The
First Azan is driven by the geography; the Second Azan is
oblivious to it and belongs to the space of MIND
The International Monetary Fund (IMF), World Bank (WB) and US Treasury view globalization of econ... more The International Monetary Fund (IMF), World Bank (WB) and US Treasury view globalization of economies as a mathematical and scientific problem and not as a sociocultural phenomenon. To these institutions it is monetarist economics that should govern economic globalization. This study analyzes Pakistan's economy in the context of globalization by using the yardsticks of trade in general and Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) in particular. The inferences drawn are further reinforced by looking at stock market, external debt and liabilities (EDL), poverty, unemployment, inflation etc. Globalization is leading to growth in China but for South Asia, South East Asia and for Africa, it is perpetuation of poverty, hunger, disease and inequality. Revision of Millennium Development Goals (MDG) is a clear indication of that. Apart from successes in some areas, globalization has failed to bring positive change in the lives of millions of Pakistanis living below poverty line. It has rather added to their insecurities and vulnerabilities.
In Islamic world, the death of the five sensory man and his future has already happened. Clausewi... more In Islamic world, the death of the five sensory man and his future has already happened. Clausewitzianism is dead. This is the Age of Sixth Sense i.e., intuition. The heart of it is suicide bomber, the intuitive rather than the five sensory man. It is a new military dimension based on intuition, faith and will. There is this idea of intuition, there is in quantum physics an idea called non-local reality i.e., Bells Theorem. They found that all reality is in contact. Two particles were set into clockwise motion at two different locations simultaneously. Then one was switched into anti-clock wise direction. The other turned anti-clockwise by itself. These are in connection. Heisenberg pointed out hidden variables, though Einstein protested. Bell discovered how to find these hidden variables e.g., splitting of the beam. Uncertainty is the fact of life, as opposed to prediction and control. It is impossible to make any scientific predictions. Newtonian physics is insufficient. Aristotelian logic i.e., either a thing is there or not has broken down at the tactical level. And the world is into this new intuitive reality. In Islamic world, opposition to America is an intuition based non-local reality. Just like Bells Theorem.
For the reasons of history, religion, language, culture, aspirations, geopolitics and power; cons... more For the reasons of history, religion, language, culture, aspirations, geopolitics and power; conscious and considered decisions put a country and its economy on a chosen path. The greater context is always Development State v.s., Security State. Pakistan is no exception. On its creation, Pakistan could have moved in the direction of Development State, but it did not. Perhaps the burden of sub-conscious was too much to ignore. It opted for Economy of National Security i.e., power struggle. Over the decades, Pakistan's economy became a combination of national and external resource allocations for the reasons of global geo-politics. Previously, it was Cold War, now it is War on Terror. National capacity of the resource allocation has been stretched to its maximum. Domestically, it led to political and religious reductionism. In foreign policy, the choices made were of Cold War, military buildup, nuclear weapons, delivery systems and alliances in the quest for security and geopolitical status. Has Pakistan succeeded? The problem is that the centre of gravity of American War on Terror and nuclear proliferation is Pakistan itself.
In the east is Pakistan's traditional adversary India, an aspiring Asian power of the 21 st centu... more In the east is Pakistan's traditional adversary India, an aspiring Asian power of the 21 st century. Across the Karakurams is an ancient practitioner of balance of power politics. To the west is occupied Afghanistan. From the south via Arabian Sea and Indian Ocean, oil and maritime world trade proceed, closely watched by American Navy. Indian blue water navy is a challenge. Further, deep south is US naval battle group at Diego Garcia. The locale echoes with major worldviews. Economies of national security are at play. Each has been involved in a power struggle. Asia is up for grab. Pakistan is stuck amidst the global and aspiring Asian powers. In this age and time, restraint is critical and an understanding of the passage of time is key. Time is however on the Indian side. The success lies in operating in continuum. Strictly speaking, in the context of nation-state system, nuclear weapon capability is Pakistan's threshold of tolerance. On an altitude of consciousness, all the governments since the last three decades fell prey to opposite threshold while guarding and developing Pakistan's nuclear weapon capability and delivery systems. Beyond doubt, it was played out in different ways.
The theoretical framework is
By and large, any worldview is an abstract and a philosophic frame of mind towards life, and rest... more By and large, any worldview is an abstract and a philosophic frame of mind towards life, and rest of the world as a whole as opposed to a corresponding worldview. The relationship between mind, language and culture in the greater context of worldview is vital and critical. The three are interlinked in an evolution reflecting harmony or disharmony. For in the function of the mind, the shaft of light is language. Language inhabits the Kosmos, the world of its own. It is also the main instrument in the development of mind and culture. Language is not only a means of communication but the structure of the language and phrase has logic of its own. It produces a type of thought based either on cognition or dissonance resulting in reflection or problem respectively. Language creates its own reality and feels its way towards that reality. Learning a language alters the mind. By knowing a language one enters into its world. This world has its own symbols and a cultural background leading to a type of mind and way of thinking. For the way we live and think is culture. One does not speak a language; it is like living in that language and breathing in its ambiance. The ability to speak an additional language transcends the specificity of mother tongue. It is akin to stepping into geometry after learning arithmetic.
Metaphors are central in the forming of perceptions. These have greater impact on recipients. The... more Metaphors are central in the forming of perceptions. These have greater impact on recipients. The closest in metaphor resembling Pakistan's crisis is Shakespeare's Hamlet. It is a problem play. In the end there is so much evil around that everybody kills everyone else. As the play thickens and is sufficiently spread, it makes it to its logical conclusion. They end up destroying each other. And when folly reaches a point, the wrong doers eliminate each other. After a given point, everything plays out in a crystal clear way. The inevitability is there. What in fact happens is that everyone distorts the reality to fit the circumstances. They recast the reality to fit the distortion. The tragedy catches up as if it had to be. Each step reinforces the other. The self induced hypnosis goes on. To believe anything else is self destruction. The subordinates outdo the desires. In the clash of personalities, individuals turn into a shuttle. What happens to executives is that the unfolding rationalization and logic tackles despair and nothing else. In the process they become part of it. Common sense is defied. How lonely one becomes is the ultimate truth in statecraft. Despite being neutral, the night becomes an adversary. The rare conclusion is that there is a play within the play and so on and it goes on.
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Papers by Khalil U Rehman
The narrative is that a child was born on 14th August 1947 by the
name of Pakistan. The little one was Muslim by birth and the rite
of saying azan in the ears of the newborn is an Islamic ritual.
However, this child went through the ritual of not one, but two
‘political’ azans. The First Azan was that of a nation-state with
well-defined frontiers where people have commonality of
interest, having national anthem and a flag, aspirations for the
future and a rational national interest to pursue within the
framework of High and Low politics. The Second Azan dictated
that Pakistan’s center of gravity is non-geographic, its focus and
essence is not confined to geography or space and that it will
have to answer to the call wherever it may occur or come from.
The Second Azan stood for pan-Islamism and pan-Islamic
aspirations. The two are totally contradictory. Pakistani
perception mixes one with the other, takes one for the other. The
First Azan is driven by the geography; the Second Azan is
oblivious to it and belongs to the space of MIND
The narrative is that a child was born on 14th August 1947 by the
name of Pakistan. The little one was Muslim by birth and the rite
of saying azan in the ears of the newborn is an Islamic ritual.
However, this child went through the ritual of not one, but two
‘political’ azans. The First Azan was that of a nation-state with
well-defined frontiers where people have commonality of
interest, having national anthem and a flag, aspirations for the
future and a rational national interest to pursue within the
framework of High and Low politics. The Second Azan dictated
that Pakistan’s center of gravity is non-geographic, its focus and
essence is not confined to geography or space and that it will
have to answer to the call wherever it may occur or come from.
The Second Azan stood for pan-Islamism and pan-Islamic
aspirations. The two are totally contradictory. Pakistani
perception mixes one with the other, takes one for the other. The
First Azan is driven by the geography; the Second Azan is
oblivious to it and belongs to the space of MIND