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VERITAS
(PORTO ALEGRE)
Revista de Filosofia da PUCRS
Veritas, Porto Alegre, v. 68, n. 1, p. 1-13, jan.-dez. 2023
e-ISSN: 1984-6746 | ISSN-L: 0042-3955
http://dx.doi.org/10.15448/1984-6746.2023.1.44913
SEÇÃO: EPISTEMOLOGIA E FILOSOFIA DA LINGUAGEM
Between bets and rational choices: conjectures on the fraying
of time under intense action of chance
Entre apostas e escolhas racionais: conjecturas sobre o desgaste do tempo sob
intensa ação do acaso
Entre apuestas y elecciones racionales: conjeturas sobre el desgaste del tiempo bajo la
intensa acción del azar
Ivo A. Ibri1
orcid.org/0000-0003-3801-3061
[email protected]
Recebido em: 05 jun. 2023.
Aprovado em: 06 set. 2023.
Publicado em: 22 nov. 2023.
Abstract: Starting from the exposition of the fundamental guiding principles of
Peirce’s philosophy, mainly, its three categories viewed under his Phenomenology and its correlated Ontology, I conjecture about three possible dimensions
of Time, considering the function of predicting the future course of events with
varying degrees of certainty as the main role of our human rationality. In these
three dimensions, the affection of the first of the three Peircean categories occurs
with differentiated intensity, this first category precisely the one that includes
the way of being of the incidence of Chance, either in the course of a natural
Chronos, or in the course of a temporality produced by human actions, or also
equally having incidence in the spontaneity of a subjective time, assumed here
as Kairós. Inspired by the recent experience of the pandemic that devastated
all corners of the planet, this conjecture suggests dimensions of a temporality
frayed ontologically in different degrees, leading to a corresponding fraying of
our predictive rationality, imposing upon us the condition of being characters who
are left to bet on the course of future factuality to the detriment of choices that
would be feasible if a history circumscribed by an intense incidence of Chance
had not occurred.
Keywords: Peirce; pragmatism; semiotics; chance; time.
Resumo: A partir da exposição das diretrizes fundamentais da filosofia de Peirce,
principalmente suas três categorias vistas sob sua Fenomenologia e sua correlata
Ontologia, conjecturo sobre três possíveis dimensões do Tempo, considerando
como principal papel de nossa humana racionalidade sua função de predizer
com graus variados de certeza o curso futuro dos fatos. Nessas três dimensões
incidem com intensidade diferenciada a primeira das três categorias peircianas,
justamente a que inclui o modo de ser da incidência do Acaso, seja no curso de
um Chronos natural, seja no curso de uma temporalidade produzida pelas ações
humanas, ou seja também igualmente incidente na espontaneidade de um
tempo subjetivo, assumido aqui como Kairós. Inspirada na recente experiência
da pandemia que assolou todos os cantos de planeta, essa conjectura sugere
dimensões de uma temporalidade ontologicamente esgarçada em graus distintos
acarretando um correspondente esgarçamento de nossa racionalidade preditiva
impondo-nos a condição de personagens a quem resta apostar sobre o curso
da faticidade futura em detrimento de escolhas que seriam factíveis caso uma
história circunstanciada por intenso Acaso não houvesse ocorrido.
Palavras-chave: Peirce; pragmatismo; semiótica; acaso; tempo.
Resumen: Partiendo de la exposición de los principios rectores fundamenta-
Artigo está licenciado sob forma de uma licença
Creative Commons Atribuição 4.0 Internacional.
1
les de la filosofía de Peirce, principalmente, sus tres categorías vistas bajo su
Fenomenología y su Ontología correlativa, conjeturo acerca de tres posibles
dimensiones del Tiempo, considerando la función de predecir el curso futuro de
los acontecimientos con diversos grados de la certeza como el papel principal de
nuestra racionalidad humana. En estas tres dimensiones, la afección de la primera
Pontifícia Universidade Católica de São Paulo (PUCSP), São Paulo, SP, Brasil.
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de las tres categorías peirceanas se da con intensidad
diferenciada, siendo esta primera categoría precisamente la que engloba el modo de ser de la incidencia
del Azar, ya sea en el transcurso de un Chronos natural,
ya sea en el curso de una temporalidad producida por
las acciones humanas, o también teniendo igualmente
incidencia en la espontaneidad de un tiempo subjetivo,
asumido aquí como Kairós. Inspirada en la experiencia
reciente de la pandemia que asoló todos los rincones
del planeta, esta conjetura sugiere dimensiones de
una temporalidad deshilachada ontológicamente en
diferentes grados, lo que lleva a un correspondiente
deshilachamiento de nuestra racionalidad predictiva,
imponiéndonos la condición de personajes que quedan. apostar por el curso de la factualidad futura en
detrimento de elecciones que serían factibles si no
se hubiera producido una historia circunscrita por una
intensa incidencia del Azar.
Palabras clave: Peirce; pragmatismo; semiótica;
azar; tiempo.
predicate of alterity, which as we know, derives
from the Latin term alter - other. The others to us
and the others to one another define categorically
the concept of existing.
Finally, thirdness, to complete the famous
triadic character of Peircean thought, is where
the general representations of otherness will be,
insofar as otherness demonstrates habits, redundancy, which allow us to know the rules of conduct that govern the regularity in its appearance,
even if never in an exact way, and with degrees
of dispersion in relation to what Peirce calls Law
– widely understood as the laws governing the
conduct of individuals. I describe the ontological
condition of thirdness first because it is the condi-
1 Some axial concepts of Peirce’s
philosophy
Scholars of Peirce know that one of the core
axes of his philosophy are his three categories,
namely firstness, secondness and thirdness. They
appear genetically in his Phenomenology and
then extend to his Metaphysics, structuring the
modes of being of our experience and of reality
itself, respectively.
Firstness, in general, is associated phenomenologically with feelings on its inner side, while
irregular, accidental, asymmetrical phenomena
evidence the outer side of this category. Reactions to our ego by a non-ego, in the form of the
experience of our human errors, among which
can be included forecasts, false expectations,
and the insolence of the facts that force entry
as unexpected accidents, constitute the general
phenomenology of the category of secondness.
It is thus conceived also as a mode of being of
reality, found in Peirce’s philosophy in the concept
of existence, which constitutes the array of spatiotemporally defined facts. This factual-existential
character is what definitively enables this category
to harbor its predicate of reaction, whether against
our consciousness or among the facts themselves in their individuality and definability of being
hic et nunc. To secondness, we can attribute the
2
3
tion for the possibility of our mediations, namely,
our representations of otherness, through which
it will no longer react against our purposes to the
extent that it has been represented in its conduct.
It is possible to know, however approximately and
fallibly2, how the other will behave in future time,
making it possible to program, plan, how we will
act in relation to it.
Otherness, therefore, must allow itself to be
interpreted, in order for us to exercise our rationality, which, after all, has the essential mission
of foreseeing the future course of facts. All that
our rationality can hope for, and, in fact, what
endows it with meaning, is to produce semiosis
that adheres to the course of phenomena3.
What is important for the sequence of what I
intend to expose hereafter is to certify that phenomenologically the three categories are characterized as modes of being of our experience;
of free feeling devoid of the world’s otherness,
of perceiving the reaction of the world that interrupts our consciousness of mere feeling, and of
a consciousness of mediating in a continuum of
a time represented within us. On the other hand,
ontologically, the categories as modes of being
that are symmetrical to our experience, undoing
the dichotomy between appearing and being,
and are present within the three constitutive
principles of reality, namely Chance, Existence,
Fallibilism is one important doctrine of Peirce’s epistemology. See, for instance Pierce (1931, paragraph 173).
See Liszka (1996). On the concept of the adherence between representation and facts, see Ibri (2022).
Ivo A. Ibri
Between bets and rational choices: conjectures on the fraying of time under intense action of chance
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and Law (IBRI, 2017). The explicit categorical
Kairós can adhere to Chronos in varying degrees
symmetry of Peirce’s philosophy definitively links
of intensity. In the exercise of our mediating ratio-
epistemology and ontology, in which the latter
nality, Kairós must be synchronized to Chronos, so
becomes a logical condition of possibility for the
that our logical interpretants result in energetic
former. No cognition would be possible without
interpretants directed to ends that are themselves
the logical-semiotic structures of our signical
somehow incorporated in Chronos7. To represent
representations of the world being legitimated by
otherness in a cognitive manner means to do so
an ontological logic that is associated with objec-
in Chronos, that is, according to the manner its
tive reality (SANTAELLA, 2009). This claim is the
conduct is inserted in an objective reality, in which
simplest and direct consequence of Peirce’s rea-
this conduct can manifest itself as a phenomenon
lism, which has its roots in the scholastic realism
in its factual secondness.
of Scotus, quite different from a contemporary
Peirce considers Chronos as a real continuum
realism simply opposed to a subjective idealism .
(PEIRCE, 1933, paragraph 172)8, although there
This basic condition of Peircean realism, often
must be some point of discontinuity in it so that
obfuscated by the fascination that our language
Chance, as a principle, may be able to act in
and semiotic creativity exerts over our minds,
existence without, contradictorily, being a result
leading us to a nominalist philosophical stan-
of the past or binding its actions to a future. This
ce that, in fact, conceals and reduces the true,
detachment of Chance in relation to the conti-
broadly heuristic potential of Peirce’s thought,
nuum of thirdness of time demands that in this
which lies far beyond tediously anthropocentric
continuum there is some point of discontinuity
philosophies .
in the present, precisely because it is situated
4
5
between past and future.
2 The three dimensions of Time
Kairós, when independent from Chronos, flows
in us by means of an absolutely present state of
2.1 Chronos and Kairós
In previous texts, I have proposed the consideration of two dimensions of time, namely,
Chronos and Kairós (IBRI, 2022). The first denotes the cosmic, objective, therefore, universal
time. For this reason, it is associated with the
third ontological category, as a condition for the
possibility of natural laws6. The second would
be a time of internal nature, a feeling of time,
one possible representation of real time, which
consciousness. Just as an illustrative example,
let only the sound of Bach’s Cello Suite #1 flow
through our consciousness. A consciousness
inhabited only by qualisigns has its own temporality, free from worldly time.
Peirce emphasizes in a passage how this hiatus
of internal time, which here I am calling Kairós,
is also verified in real time, Chronos9. Kairós thus
flows transversally to Chronos through its present
point, as illustrated in the figure below10:
can be totally separated from Chronos in certain
situations of pure experiences of firstness, such
as in experiences of aesthetic nature. However,
I discuss this difference in Ibri (2022, p. 230-231).
See also Anderson (1995).
6
See Schmidt (2022) for a detailed analysis of the passages in which Peirce describes his realist position in relation to time and explicitly
affirms that time is of the nature of a law.
7
For an approach on the relation between time and subjective mediation, see Tienne (2015).
8
See Sfendoni-Mentzou (2008) for an analysis of Peirce’s argument for time as a real continuum of dynamic nature, characterized by
its potentiality.
9
Pierce (1935, paragraph 86): “Yet it undoubtedly is true that the permanence of chance effects is due to the independence of the
instants of time. How are we to resolve this puzzle? The solution of it lies in this, that time has a point of discontinuity at the present. This
discontinuity appears in one form in conservative actions where the actual instant differs from all other instants absolutely, while those
others only differ in degree; and the same discontinuity appears in another form in all non-conservative action, where the past is broken
off from the future as it is in our consciousness”.
10
I have proposed the relation between these two already in Ibri (2022).
4
5
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Figure 1 – The transversal relation between Kairós and Chronos
Source: Elaborated by the author (2023).
In fact, this relation is present in certain types
human action, defining the context of its differen-
of experience in which the world, in its aspect
tiated history, with its own distinctive otherness.
of secondness, as a furnishing of facts, can be
Therefore, let us first consider Chronos in its
put in parentheses, namely, when we report to
cosmic dimension, that is, as associated with the
it only for its immediate qualities or suppress it
laws of Nature. When we consider Evolutionism
completely for an aesthetic experience through
as one of the key doctrines of Peirce’s philosophy,
human art11. In both cases, this is an disinterested
we find within it the answer about how such laws
experience regarding the object, whose character
became formed, concomitantly with the formation
consisting merely of free play is emphasized in
of Time itself. Peirce’s Cosmology suggests the
the aesthetics of Kant and Schopenhauer , for
hypothesis that the categories took form sequen-
example.
tially from Firstness to Thirdness. This means
12
However, Kairós must seek to adhere to Chro-
that the continua of the formless qualities of the
nos when our consciousness is within the expe-
first category gave rise to the logically shaped
rience of otherness and, consequently, is inclined
continua of the third, in which time also took form
to seek a mediating thirdness that might represent
in its cosmic dimension. Therefore, we can affirm
real thirdness, to be in synchrony with it and, the-
that the laws of Nature had their origin in Chance
refore, with the dimension of Chronos to which it
– and influencing this vector from the first to the
is linked. In this exercise of rationality, our internal
third category, according to Peirce’s evolutionism,
time seeks to synchronize with real time, the one
there is an agglutinating, generalizing principle,
that elapses as otherness, independent from
he calls Agapism (HAUSMAN, 1994).
us. Only through this synchrony does it appear
As complex as this theme of Peircean philoso-
that our predictions about the future course of
phy is, which I developed in detail in a previous
events can be successful, that is, they maintain
work (IBRI, 2017), it is important to emphasize here
adherence with their real course.
that the formation of thirdness and time happens
However, the development of this essay gave
in the context of an evolution still in progress,
rise to a reconsideration of Chronos that complexi-
justifying why the continua of time and laws are
fies it and details it phenomenologically, making it
not perfect, even now interacting with Chance.
two-dimensional, as will be shown subsequently.
The laws of Nature appear phenomenologically
to evidence dispersions around average values
2.2 On the temporality of human history
At this point, it is an interesting conjecture to
conceive of a different dimension of time associated not to a class of phenomena belonging to
natural history, but to a factuality produced by
11
12
that demand probabilistic representations. Time,
in turn, must have a hiatus in its present point,
so that this interaction of Chance with Law may
be possible. This hiatus in cosmic Chronos time
is related, in the context of Peirce’s cosmology,
See also Innis (2013).
An approach to this concept in both authors can be found in Vandenabeele (2012).
Ivo A. Ibri
Between bets and rational choices: conjectures on the fraying of time under intense action of chance
5/13
to the phenomenological experience of firstness
deeper reflection on it here (COLAPIETRO, 1989;
as being pure presentness.
NÖTH, 2021), let us for now admit that the other
It is true that although the laws of Nature pre-
natural beings act according to rules accumulated
sent dispersions due to the incidence of Chance,
evolutionarily in the form of the predicates of each
there is a sufficient degree of regularity in them
species, and that they, species, are in a process
to allow us to know them with different degrees
of dynamic equilibrium, that is, that all actions,
of probability, as is the case, for example, from
albeit conflictive, of fights, of violent disputes,
the field of astronomy to the field of gas theory
concur to a final equilibrium of the natural system
or quantum mechanics, providing the natural
as a whole. In summary, the range of choices
sciences with a growing and certain development
other natural beings possess is inscribed within
(HOUSER, 2014).
their respective species, including accidental
Nonetheless, there is another reality beyond
variations that may occur in each factual situation.
that of a cosmic nature. It is the one configured
All of these predicates converge toward a basic
by human history; the one Hegel used to simply
purpose: the preservation of life.
call History. A history of knowledge, of culture, of
There are myriad narratives of scientific nature
those facts produced by human beings. In this
and also in the arts regarding creative rituals of
history, how might we consider the interactivity
the beings of Nature that, along with their saga
of the categories? To what measure might it be
of survival, seem to celebrate their existence with
affected by the degrees of freedom of the first
dances, songs, and displays of beauty. For that
category’s principle of spontaneity?
matter, this display that captivated philosophies
It is worth considering here that we, human
such as German Romanticism, is also found in the
beings, are more subject to the incidences of the
various forms matter assumes and the manifesta-
first category, mainly due to our capacity to feel
tions of its qualities, displaying free action, without
and our capacity to break rules, habits, and even
a necessary connection to the teleology of life.
with Chronos time itself in our consciousness,
Our self-consciousness directs us to choices
plunging it into experiences typical of firstness,
beyond those that would be simply inscribed
such as the mere disinterested contemplation
within the demands of our species. We exercise
of Nature or the unmediated enjoyment of a
our freedom within mundane limits, or we subvert
work of art.
them with our imagination, creating possible worl-
Phenomenologically, Nature has mechanis-
ds that can be externalized in the form of the arts
ms of homeostasis that come from a cosmic
or kept within us as unrealized possibilities, which
temporality incomparable in scope to the scale
become imbibed with the absence of otherness
of human time. This ‘youthfulness’ of human
and traverse our unconscious metaphorically13.
existence implies a greater incidence of firstness
However, as mundane characters, we set the
in human behavior, entailing spontaneity, an er-
objects of our desire in time, as goals to be achie-
ratic nature, the formation of habits that can be
ved by means of plans that we hope will reaso-
broken through experiences of otherness and
nably follow the course of events, maintaining a
other important characteristics, also associated
certain adherence to them. One may ask, however,
with the first category, originating from an internal
what facts are these? What governs them? Would
world of which we are at least partially aware,
it not be appropriate to distinguish two classes of
reminding us of the concept of the unconscious
facts, namely, one that is constituted by a cosmic
proposed by Freud.
structure, governed by the laws of Nature, and
Self-consciousness is a property considered
typically human throughout the history of philosophy. Although it would be difficult to go into a
13
See also Barrena and Nubiola (2019).
another that follows possible laws of a history,
created by us humans?
These two classes would then be related to the
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two classes of temporality as I will suggest below.
pathway towards these future goals we expect
The first of them, already mentioned, is cosmic
to encounter reactions proper to the secondness
time, associated with the laws of Nature. It is a
that typifies the otherness of reality, as Peirce
time that we can conceptualize as foundational,
states. In the face of them, we also have the ex-
a basis, from which all others would be variations,
pectation that we will know how to find mediations
each one of them subject to the respective phe-
indicative of that conduct which has the highest
nomenological characteristics that must always
probability of success. Logical interpretants ra-
accompany the very definition of temporality.
tionally determining the energetic interpretants
Cosmic time, whose flow is structured by the
laws of Nature, receives the incidence of Chance
in the direction of the dynamic objects that we
presume to be reachable.
and, therefore, impresses a point of discontinuity
Although we situate our future objects in Chro-
in the present, in such a way that the facts that
nos and hope to find the mediations that will lead
both produce possess degrees of freedom that
us to them, the interposing path is not subject to
make laws approximate, of a probabilistic nature.
laws that can be known with a degree of plausi-
These relations between Chance, Factual Existen-
bility and verisimilitude, such as those the natural
ce and Law, make up the interaction of Peirce’s
sciences come in contact with. The cognition of
three categories, that is, firstness, secondness
natural objects is bound to an ontological third-
and thirdness, in this order (IBRI, 2017).
ness that reveals its lineage over time, as affirms
It is interesting to note phenomenologically
the well-known Peircean expression “in the long
that the presence of Chance is made evident
run”15 that characterizes the third stage of his logic
in every asymmetry and irregularity that Nature
of investigation, namely, induction, responsible
presents, marking similarities with differences
for gathering spatiotemporal experimental data
– both predicates coexist in objects. This con-
of the object of cognition.
ditions what can be generalized, namely, those
Let it be said that the pure sciences that deal
predicates under law, which are the ones that
with the cognition of natural objects and the
receive names, while those predicates under
applied sciences that generate technology de-
chance, non-generalizable, constitute nameless
pend to a certain degree on human history, in the
things14. A myriad of nameless things marks all
sense of defining policies that list priorities and
facts, and these do not lend themselves to the
allocate resources for their achievement. Beyond
formation of concepts due to the impossibility
these circumstances, in a way, there is no other
of their generalization. We only have access to
obstacle of an epistemological or ontological
them when we abdicate the mediations that are
nature, since natural history is under a logically
formed logically, precisely by what, in things, is
well-defined thirdness, dealing with objects who-
susceptible to generalization.
se conduct is sufficiently explicit and, therefore,
However, this would inaugurate an alternative
open to logical cognition. This is not the case, it
way of experiencing those aspects marginalized
should be said, with respect to human history,
by concepts, whose main function is to provide
which is guided by social and individual values
a basis for predicting the future course of ex-
driving its actions.
perience, introducing our factual expectations
It is interesting to point out that Pragmatism
in the continuum of Chronos. We deposit into
(FABBRICHESI, 2008; NUBIOLA, 2021), from the
Chronos many objects of desire, goals of various
point of view of its rule of meaning, which also
natures, and we seek paths that will lead us to
translates the condition of an object’s cognos-
them successfully.
cibility, applies to both histories. Understanding
It is reasonable to suppose that along the
14
15
this rule according to the way in which ideas af-
I suggested this concept in Ibri (2022, p. 51).
See, for example, Pierce (1935, paragraph 534) and Pierce (1958, paragraphs 124 and 207).
Ivo A. Ibri
Between bets and rational choices: conjectures on the fraying of time under intense action of chance
7/13
fect conduct and radicalizing it to its ontological
verbial otherness. Such limiting constrictions are
face that is expressed by the manner in which
recognized by philosophies that preach a broad
the general affects the particular, as would be
realism, as Peirce’s categories state. Anthropo-
provided given the relationship between the three
centric philosophies that not infrequently make
categories in light of Peirce’s realism, it is worth
no distinction of reality from fiction, in a kind of
reflecting how, within this approach, one could
exacerbation of the possibility of constitution
distinguish the way in which pragmatism would
of the world by the subject or by language, im-
read each of these histories.
mersed in an often-verifiable sterile nominalism,
Conduct is what can be observed as the outer
side of beings, whether natural or human, while
attribute to human beings a historical role that
tacitly conceals a prevailing Cartesian dualism.
the inner side, one could say, constitutes the
Human history is thus constituted by the whole
ideas that govern the way these beings act -
of our culture: our knowledge, our science, our
the way they, in fact, introduce themselves as
arts, by a technology that populates the planet
characters in their respective histories. Here it is
with objects that, because they are mediations in
worth bringing to the fore Peirce’s well-known
relation to Nature, as the case of the emergence
statement (PIERCE, 1934, paragraphs 264-317;
of cities, became ends in themselves, as the great
PIERCE, 1992, paragraphs 28-55) that knowledge
megalopolises show.
of inner worlds is only feasible by the way they
Our freedom of choice, mobilized by objects of
desire, has given rise to a reading of our history in
appear on their outer side.
It is worth asking, what would differentiate
which proceeds a parade of ideologies, beliefs of
the natural and the human inner worlds ? In
all kinds, power struggles, genocidal wars, framed
light of the ontological face of pragmatism, the
by the highest art of music, poetry, and the fine
conduct of natural beings fully expresses their
arts. This reading could, perhaps, metaphorically
interior side, understanding such interiority as
synthesize our history as a great operatic drama18.
the continuum of predicates that constitutes
Returning to the spirit, rather than the letter,
each species, whether living or merely material.
of Peirce’s philosophy, we could say that we are
This amounts to saying that there is nothing in
depositaries of an especially intense presence of
the interiority of these characters that does not
firstness in our interiority, leaving us permeated
appear phenomenically to cognition.
by emotional interpretants that, many times,
16
The same cannot be said about the human
predominate over logical interpretants. Emotional
example. We are differentiated beings in this
interpretants, in their formless continuum, when
aspect, inasmuch as we are able to safeguard
dissociated from logical ones, introduce us in
an internal world over which we have nearly
the hiatus of the present time, because they do
complete autonomy. I say nearly, because our
not contain in themselves, by their own nature,
unconscious is the depository of signs about
the possibility of a mediatory reading of the tem-
which we know almost nothing, or very little,
poral course of the facts. Their characteristic of
despite the fact that they influence our behavior,
immediacy directs us, one might say, towards
as Freudian psychoanalysis repeatedly affirms .
energetic interpretations with no logical destina-
17
It is suitable to consider that we have degrees
tion, submitting us to the accidentality of Chance.
of inner freedom whose limitation can only be
The possibility of choices without the coercion
imposed by the constraints of a world structured
of rules associated with a logical self-control gives
by rules that are their own, constituting their pro-
us an illusion of freedom whose philosophical
16
It is worth mentioning that the philosophy of Schelling, one of the authors that Peirce admired, enables us to think about this difference, highlighting the distinct freedom of human interiority with regard to natural beings.
17
There is a quite interesting metaphor created by Peirce called bottomless lake of consciousness, based on which I have written “The
Bottomless Lake of Firstness: conjectures on the Heuristic Power of Consciousness. Semiotica” (IBRI, 2021). In this essay, there is a conjecture
on the discover of the unconscious by Peirce before Freud has consolidated it as a psychological concept.
18
Topa (2016) makes an interesting argument for a Peircean reading of history contemplating some of the elements we have cited here.
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treatment, worth remembering, goes back to
an intense incidence of Chance. This incidence
Aristotle’s ethics (ARISTOTLE, 2009) when he
is due not only to emotional interpretants devoid
questions who would be the free man: the one
of predictive power, but also, and mainly, to the
who follows his immediate will or the one who
disconnection between particular goals that
rationally deliberates what he should do? Time
end up directing the course of events towards
and non-time have long confronted each other
destinations often defined by pure secondness,
in human conduct.
strength and power games, and consequently, far
It is important for us here to associate both
interpretants with time. However, although we
from a desirable thirdness that would reconcile
them for social cohabitation.
consider Chronos as the universal time associated
No wonder Peirce calls the reduction of a ge-
with the most invariable cosmic character of na-
nuine thirdness degeneracy, namely, that which
tural facts, such as those of astronomy, we could
acts as an integrating mediation of otherness in
think of the sequencing of our human history, as
semiotic networks, to relations of mere second-
already considered, as being depository of our
ness, whose nature is characterized by action and
objects of desire. This sequencing is associated
reaction, and which could very well model a cer-
to random factors with an incidence that leads us
tain aspect of the concept of dialectical synthesis
to conceive of an ontology of its own, founded not
that implies the overcoming of otherness rather
in the regularity of natural facts, but in the dyna-
than its possible cohabitating logical integration19.
mism of those facts generated by human action.
It is important to emphasize the hypothesis that
It seems difficult to see in the history of our
historical time is constituted within the phenome-
culture the expression of a rationality that, even
nology of human actions, and both it and natural
if approached dialectically to account for its anti-
phenomenology are subject to the three Peircean
thetical conflicts as Hegel proposes, would be free
categories. However, these ways of being of the
of random factors that conspire against a rational
phenomena have a different balance in each of
understanding of it. Under this view, the Hegelian
the two cases, since it is plausible to consider
view of history as a saga of the revelation of divine
that the share of firstness in human history would
Reason seems to become aporetic. We depend
be significantly more accentuated than in natural
greatly on a normativity of our social conduct
history, resulting in the third category being much
that seeks to make the conciliation of interests
more intensely influenced by the spontaneity of
feasible and, especially, a minimally harmonious
the first category20.
cohabitation among us humans.
It is interesting, at this point, to recall the the-
It does not seem reasonable to affirm that we
oretical guidelines of Peirce’s Objective Idea-
have been successful in our historical task. A
lism (IBRI, 2017)21. Matter is mind impregnated
myriad of choices geared toward merely private
by crystallized habits - a kind of mind depleted
ends has recurrently frayed the aspiration of
by markedly stable habits, which Peirce calls
that coexistent harmony, generating all kinds of
effete mind, while what we properly call mind is
conflicts of interest.
constituted by habits with a high degree of insta-
Leaving these considerations to remain only
bility due to its interactivity with experience. This
as a configuration of the scenario of what in fact
contrast between the two, matter and mind, does
matters to the theme of this essay, let us return to
not characterize a relationship of estrangement
the hypothesis that there is in the course of human
of nature, but exhibits a differentiated spontaneity
history a temporality that, it is worth repeating,
that is associated with the more pronounced
despite being anchored in Chronos, also receives
presence of firstness in mind than in matter - in
19
20
21
About genuine vs degenerate categories, see also Kruse (1991).
See also Aydin (2009).
See also Guardiano (2011).
Ivo A. Ibri
Between bets and rational choices: conjectures on the fraying of time under intense action of chance
9/13
fact, this difference translates into the capacity
a confrontation of two histories that share the
to feel and to evidence the predicate of life. The
same ideality of the universe of mind but differ
so-called living beings are more prone to breaking
in the intensity with which the three constitutive
their behavioral habits due to their sensitivity to
categories of reality are interrelated.
the otherness of the environment they inhabit.
As Chance incurs upon time in a partial hiatus
Mind, therefore, in the light of Peirce’s Objective
from its continuum, which is the present, so one
Idealism, a doctrine totally inspired by Schelling
can conjecture that historical time, thanks to
(IBRI, 2022), is defined as carrying habits acquired
its being much more intensely permeated by
over time, differentiated by its varying degrees of
the first category, suffers deviations in direction
sensitivity and of life.
throughout the course of its thirdness.
The recourse to Peircean Idealism in this es-
Illustratively, the diagram below seeks to re-
say reinforces the differences between natural
present this idea, in which there is a linear course
history and human history. They are constituted
of Nature’s evolution, permeated by Chance in
by different agents, that is, on the one hand, the
its present point, while human actions, which do
evolution of Nature, extensive throughout an
not contribute to a coexistent interactivity of a
immeasurable temporality when compared to
mediating thirdness, present a kind of obliquity in
human history and, on the other hand, the set
the course of its time, constituted by deviations,
of humanity’s actions throughout its relatively
blockages, setbacks and fragmentation due to
short existence .
the frequency and intensity with which human
22
Different degrees of uncertainty emerge in
action leaves marks on its factual existence.
each of these histories, seen through their objec-
Clashes of interests and power games multiply
tive characteristics. They arise through Peirce’s
the manifestations of otherness, accentuating
realism suggesting an ontology that conditions
a secondness that particularizes, in its various
an epistemology – the uncertainty of signs co-
possibilities of ramification, lines of thirdness that
mes not from the structure of logic or language,
are often irreconcilable.
but from the very nature of objects – there is
Figure 2 – The relation between Historical Time and Chronos (Cosmic Time)
Source: Elaborated by the author (2023).
The immediacy of emotional interpretants can
way in this history. It is worth saying that of the four
interfere in the course of facts, removing them
types considered by him, only the scientific type
from a possible logical path. The firstness of fe-
acts in an increasingly evolutionary and universal
elings acts by generating energetic interpretants
direction, although it may be slowed down by the
that intervene in human history. The range of
presence of instances of power guided by minds
beliefs enumerated by Peirce acts in a different
aligned with the other types of beliefs, as shown
22
For an analysis of how Peirce himself addressed the topic of history in his writings, see also Viola (2020).
10/13
Veritas, Porto Alegre, v. 68, n. 1, p. 1-13, jan.-dez. 2023 | e-44913
in some periods of our history.
experienced by humanity, namely, the corona-
In a previous essay, I suggested a distinction
virus pandemic. Let us explore, for the sake of
between two concepts, namely, sensitivity and
the theme focused on here, aspects of its acute
emotionality (IBRI, 2022). Sensitivity being a term
otherness. The first of them, regarding the on-
to designate a harmonic combination between
tological-epistemological realm, allows us to
logical and emotional interpretants, as occurs
say that the pandemic itself can be considered
in creative insights in the history of science and
as a transversal event in the course of historical
art. Emotionality, on the other hand, designating
time, since it happened accidentally, inciden-
the accentuated or almost exclusive predomi-
tally, like many occurrences of the same nature
nance of emotional interpretants associated with
in our history, differing, of course, by its general
a receptive factuality of its resulting energetic
pervasiveness.
interpretants. Purely emotional actions usually
In this sphere, social and individual habits were
are subject to the blindness of Chance and, as
deeply broken, giving rise to acute degrees of
a result, are capable of introducing unexpected
epistemological discontinuities resulting from
facts into the course of history.
the raw power of secondness that was this event.
A time frayed by its derivations due to unpre-
We precariously improvised solutions in order
dictable and often arbitrary insertions of energetic
to continue our work, while science, amidst poli-
interpretants derived from emotional interpre-
tical influences, began its mission of discovering
tants, on the one hand, and from logical inter-
the habits of the virus in order to produce vac-
pretants directed to particular purposes, on the
cines. As all knowledge in this direction requires
other, has a different flow in relation to cosmic
time, for the semiotic-inductive long run that
time, even though it constantly refers to it .
seeks to reduce the distance between immediate
23
With these considerations, let us now contextu-
and dynamic objects, the effectiveness of me-
alize the phenomenology of human history most
dicine seems always to be drawn from a preca-
recently affected by the pandemic that raged
rious certainty arising from the lack of necessary
through every corner of the planet.
statistical data to an expected estimable uncertainty, in the long run, to be only the proverbial
3 The many faces of otherness
consequence of an ontological indeterminism
and epistemological fallibility.
3.1 The Ontological – Epistemological
Face
A high degree of randomness was considered
to pervade human history, in the face of the incidence of actions carried out pragmatically and
aimed at particular goals disconnected from a
cohabiting and homeostatic thirdness such as
that of Nature. Could a social normativity diminish this randomness and make the destinies of
particular actions share something like a common
good?24 A good theme for semioethics, whose
development would lead to a branching of this
essay, not feasible at this moment.
Let us turn our focus to the period recently
3.2 The Phenomenological Face
Our human experience during the pandemic
period, as mentioned, was characterized by sharp
breaks in social and individual habits.
Without going into its geography or details,
let us focus on the classical consideration of the
concept of anguish in the history of philosophy.
Kierkegaard, Sartre, Heidegger, in general, all
share it as associated with the exercise of freedom
and the consequent need for choice as a defining
feature of our human existence.
It can be said that this experience of the pandemic, in some way reminiscent of situations
For an exploration of the relations between energetic, emotional, and logical interpretants, see Santaella (2016)
For a consideration on the relation between normativity and a communitarian effort towards the common good in Peirce, see Liszka
(2022).
23
24
Ivo A. Ibri
Between bets and rational choices: conjectures on the fraying of time under intense action of chance
11/13
experienced by humanity in periods of war, has
with intense degrees of uncertainty, brought
introduced another class of anguish: that of the
about by the breakdown of mediations, habits of
unknown, of the precariousness of dealing with
conduct, and so on. Our representation of histo-
a future time that is perforated with accidents
rical time, phenomenologically, is perceived as
and that, in turn, unravels our efforts to fine-tune
incapable of containing our objects of desire, as
our mediations and life plans with a forecast that
if it no longer supported them, making us players
adheres to Chronos time. Kairós time in this class
who are left only to bet and not beings capable
of experience seems to make the uncertainty
of making choices by rationally predicting the
within us flow through its own channel, creating
temporal course of events.
an environment where our emotional interpretants
Precarious, we can affirm, is that existence that
predominate, precisely those lacking in the logical
imposes on us the script of players, as if, allowing
forms that allow us to predict the consequences
ourselves this metaphor, we had to submit our
of our actions in time.
plans to a roulette wheel, leaving to Chance the
The anguish of finitude brought by a reflection
encounter with the objects of desire that we had
on the human condition, as Heidegger exempla-
placed in a history endowed with a visible future,
rily characterizes it by designating us as being-
contingently shattered by the raw otherness of
-towards-death, was exacerbated in this present
the unknown.
historical period of profound uncertainty by a daily
The exercise of our rationality compels us to
procession of deaths caused by the pandemic.
make feasible choices based on a vision of a con-
A distressing state of things, despite being vir-
tinuous time defined by a factual history minimally
tually distant from the temporally indeterminate
ordered within it. The pandemic period recently
concept of finitude, became close, recurrent,
experienced by all of humanity has revealed a
bringing to mind, as mentioned, situations of war,
temporality perforated by gaps that prevented it
in a manner possibly more accentuated to those
from being minimally continuous as a condition
close to where they effectively occurred.
for the possibility of a social thirdness endowed
This anguish, beyond its psychological di-
with a predictively successful rationality.
mension, is nourished by the raw secondness
We can legitimately state that, while cosmic
of the unknown, generating a pressing need for
time elapses in its typical continuum, historical
restitution of our mediations in the face of rea-
time does not allow us to adequately tune our
lity, made precarious by uncertainty. This is an
Kairós time with it, and one reason that becomes
experience that confirms the logical importance
evident is that our objectives, our conduct towards
of our life habits and of mediations that allow for
them, depends on a future woven by a historicity
the development of plans for the achievement
interspersed with discontinuities.
of objects deposited in future time (PAPE, 2009;
This pandemic crisis made us adopt hygienic
PIETARINEN, 2008). A crisis of this nature certainly
habits with a frequency hitherto only applicable
makes us aware of human vulnerability, intensified
in specific places such as hospitals. It is worth
in scale by the differences between social clas-
considering that the discontinuities of historical
ses, evidencing the precariousness of defensive
time also brought to us the need to disinfect
mediations among the most disadvantaged. This,
our internal world, contaminated by a justified
among many others, is another possible charac-
anguish that comes from the brutal breaking of
terizing face of the experience of anguish.
habits, mediations, and expectations deposited
in points of time fragmented by accident and
4 In conclusion
It seems fair to say that under acute conditions
of otherness, as characterized by our recent passage through a severe pandemic, are associated
uncertainty. This metaphorical disinfection of
interiority is deemed to have been made possible
by genuine actions of solidarity, albeit certainly
socially unbalanced, nevertheless minimizing
12/13
Veritas, Porto Alegre, v. 68, n. 1, p. 1-13, jan.-dez. 2023 | e-44913
human anguish and fragility, somehow nourished
by the hope of scientific discoveries, capable of
restoring the normal course of life, contingently
impregnated as it was by an acute ontologically
universal otherness.
Phenomenologically, once the normal course
of a setting where human history takes place has
been restored, despite always being subject to
the vicissitudes of Chance, we can once again
experience a temporality that, in a way, allows
us to plan our future conduct, contrasting it with
the memory of recently lived times when we experienced the fragility and dependence of a time
frayed by the always brute action of an otherness
resistant to being semiotically represented, whose
brute force is attenuated by the understanding
of its conduct.
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Ivo A. Ibri
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titular da Pontifícia Universidade Católica de São Paulo,
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do Centro de Estudos do Pragmatismo do Programa
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É membro do corpo de consultores do Peirce Edition
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IVO A. IBRI
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São Paulo, SP, Brasil
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