Remember: Even The Best of Election Polls are Inaccurate

Here in Israel the political parties are revving up their campaign machinery for the 2019 Knesset Elections. Once all the primaries and committees (depending on the political party) submit their lists of Knesset candidates, then election fever will really heat up. Like in all democracies, genuine ones at least, polling companies and experts are big business. And the polls can have a very dangerous influence on voter/results.

Even the best of polls only take "samples" of a small percentage of the potential voters. In Israel, that means that just a few hundred are considered sufficient for predicting what the entire country is going to vote.

"Midgam conducted a poll of 503 people with a 4.4% margin of error for Channel 12 that was broadcast on Feb 9 2019." See Jeremy's Knesset Insider.

Now, we all know that if we sniff out the politics of  people living in different locations, we're going to get very different, contrasting, conflicting opinions. Because of the large range of political parties here in Israel, which do make it to the Knesset, even people who profess the same ideology/opinion about issues will vote for different political parties.

Frequently, people will preface their opinion with the phrase "Everybody says/thinks..." Honestly, I hate that word "everybody," since there is no such animal.

Too many times, people are influenced by the polls. Either the campaign workers are overconfident and don't work hard enough. Or people think it's "wise" to change their vote to a political party they think won't get enough votes to make it to the Knesset. Sometimes people hear that their party or "side" hasn't a chance, so they don't even bother voting.

Some people who answer polls, purposely announce they're voting for a party they'd never vote for. It's a big joke for them. In addition, there are those who don't fully make up their mind until they're actually voting, or change their mind at the very last minute.

We should vote carefully, according to which party, or candidate we honestly feel will do the best job. And then pray that Gd will not only give them wisdom, but they will use their Gd given Free Will to do what's truly best for the public good.

I Voted in Municipal Elections

photo by one of the election staff

I went down to the polling station which is in the Ohel Shiloh Banim, local boys school very early to get "training," since I had volunteered to be an "observer." Well, there was no training, so I just voted early. And I highly doubt that I'll return to "observe." There will be enough "observers" without me, Gd willing.

Even though I have written/blogged quite a bit about my choices, I know from long experience that once people are in office, they tend to "surprise" us. Sometimes it's for good, but more frequently for bad.

Between Free Will, that major responsibility that Gd gifted us, and siyate d'Shmaya, when Gd overrules, it's not a good idea to think that we can predict much. The only thing we can really predict is that things won't go exactly as expected, and that officeholders rarely do what they promised when campaigning. 

When confronting choices, like I had in the "booth" behind the screen, sometimes we change our mind. You may have noticed that I only blogged about two of the choices we had to make, two of the issues. I wrote about head of the region, sort of the governor. And I wrote about the local council list. I wrote nothing about who should represent us in the regional "parliament." That's because I couldn't choose. One campaigned that he'd work as part of the coalition no matter who's in it, which turned me off. I'm too much an idealist. I like policies and plans. The other one just wrote all sorts of ordinary platitudes, to make everything "better." That didn't enthuse me at all. I had been thinking of an empty envelope, or two ripped half ballots. I even thought of playing a "switching game" with my eyes closed and the ballots upside down, so I wouldn't know for whom I voted. At the last second I made a choice, but since it wasn't with my full heart, I won't say who got my vote.

Gd willing, I put the best choice of ballot in each envelope.  

I consider it very important to vote, even in the case when you're not impressed by the candidates.

An important thing I want to show and tell you is that our voting station is handicapped accessible! Take a look at the picture below. Thank Gd the location is perfect. It's also near bus stops.

Gd willing, the results will be the best possible. That we will only discover in the months and years to come.

Diaspora Jews Voting in Israeli Elections?

Every once in a while, and getting more frequent, there's talk of allowing all Jews, no matter where they live, to have the right to vote in Israeli Elections. I've even read that Prime Minister Bibi Netanyahu likes the idea. In all honesty I think it stinks. And that is the most polite way I can describe how I feel.

I take the right to vote very seriously. That's why I don't vote in American elections, even though I have full legal rights to do so. I don't live in the United States, nor do I get anything from it, besides the right to a passport, which isn't free. But if I really find myself having to fill out American Income Tax forms, paying an accountant to do it for us or even worse being taxed by the Americans I may change my mind. And that's only because of that famous slogan and rallying cry:

No taxation without representation!

If the American Government thinks it can tax me without my voicing an opinion, they're wrong. I think that many more expat Americans will make an effort to vote if our foreign income becomes their business. Please remember that I was born and raised in New York to New York born parents. But my husband and I left for Israel in the summer of 1970, and since then we are Israelis. And although we are of retirement age, we do not get Social Security, because we didn't work long enough in America.

But this is about Jews from all over the world voting in my elections, Israeli Elections. Just because someone is or claims to be Jewish doesn't give him/her the right to chose the Government, the Knesset Members in the State of Israel!

I will give you two very simple reasons why it's a totally fokokt idea:

• Who is a Jew? Defining Jew by Jewish Law, Hitler's definition or culinary likes? Do you have any better or more creative way?
• In Israel there are so many political parties and issues, it's hard enough for us Israeli newshounds and political pundits to choose the best party, how would some self-proclaimed Jew in India, Moscow, Peru or even in New Jersey have a clue?

At present there isn't even a way for tax-paying, IDF serving Israelis out of the country to vote. 

At present for a returning or visiting Israeli to get coverage in the Israeli health system, he/she must first pay back money owed to the system. If someone isn't "Israeli enough" to get care from the Kupat Cholim (sick fund) of his/her choice, then why let that person vote in Knesset Elections?

I think that only Israelis who are paid up should get absentee voting rights. 

Voting for Israeli Elections should only be for those who live here and those who pay all taxes as if they lived here. Our issues are too serious to be put in the hands of those who have nothing to lose.