Papers by Evgeny Vinokurov
EDB Working Papers, 2024
This Working Paper presents the methodology used to build the EDB database of nonsovereign financ... more This Working Paper presents the methodology used to build the EDB database of nonsovereign financing by the International Financial Institutions. The database pools publicly available information on IFI non-sovereign operations: recipient countries, names of IFIs, sectors financed, project descriptions, project implementation stages, amounts financed in currencies of operations, amounts financed in the dollar equivalent, interest rates and maturities, co-financing and on-lending, and other parameters of non-sovereign operations. The database is designed to monitor and analyse data on IFI operations in Eurasian countries.
Macroeconomic Forecasts 2025–2027, 2024
The document includes a detailed description of current domestic and external macroeconomic condi... more The document includes a detailed description of current domestic and external macroeconomic conditions, as well as harmonised forecasts. The analysis takes into account the existing interrelationships between the economies of Armenia, Belarus, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Russia, Tajikistan and the main trading partner countries. The macroeconomic forecasts are prepared by the EDB using an integrated system of models based on a multi-country structural dynamic macroeconomic general equilibrium model. More detailed information on this system is presented in a joint EDB and EEC report (EDB, 2016).
EDB Reports and Working Papers, 2024
MDBs contribute significantly to the international development agenda. Funding for member countri... more MDBs contribute significantly to the international development agenda. Funding for member countries and regional connectivity projects depends largely on the ability to expand lending capacity of such MDBs. This paper covers the whole ‘MDB family’ of institutions, but highlights regional and sub-regional MDBs because of their specifics of raising shareholders’ capital. The study discusses seven standard and novel options for increasing capital: (1) increasing existing shareholders’ capital; (2) new regional shareholders; (3) new non-regional states; (4) attracting institutional investors; (5) larger MDBs’ participation in a smaller MDB’s capital; (6) rechanneling the SDRs to the MDBs’ capital; (7) issuing perpetual subordinated debt available to the public. Based on case studies, we illustrate different capital enhancement strategies of MDBs that, in addition to raising capital, could lead to positive effects, related to improvement in credit rating, corporate governance, strengthening of financial position, and international status. Additionally we discuss capital optimization, which is complementary to capital expansion.
T20 Policy Brief, 2024
The G20 International Financial Architecture Working Group places great emphasis on improving the... more The G20 International Financial Architecture Working Group places great emphasis on improving the efficacy of MDBs’ operations to support economic development and to help achieve the UN’s Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). A number of valuable recommendations have been put forward by the G20 Independent Review of MDBs’ Capital Adequacy Frameworks. It is estimated that MDBs should provide US$260 billion in additional annual official financing to achieve the SDGs by 2030. This requires both more capital and a more efficient use of MDBs’ available resources and instruments.
This paper has a particular focus on regional and sub-regional MDBs, because the specifics of how they raise shareholders’ capital differ significantly from those of global MDBs. Regional/sub-regional MDBs are more flexible than global MDBs, have a better understanding of the conditions of member countries and home regions, and therefore can be more efficient. At the same time, they urgently need additional capital to expand their operations.
The G20 should encourage and incentivize regional/sub-regional MDBs to embrace a lending capacity expansion strategy consistent with their specific strengths and weaknesses. The authors discuss available options for capital increase for regional/subregional MDBs. These include increasing existing shareholders’ capital; membership expansion by attracting regional and non-regional countries, institutional investors, and other MDBs; as well as non-conventional methods (e.g., rechanneling the IMF’s special drawing rights to MDBs).
Social Science Research Network, 2024
Economic cooperation in Eurasia, building mutually beneficial horizontal ties between the EAEU an... more Economic cooperation in Eurasia, building mutually beneficial horizontal ties between the EAEU and other integration associations and Eurasian countries, needs solutions that are pragmatic, flexible, and at the same time realisable. This report contains a “menu” of specific proposals which could be implemented in the Eurasian space to create an integrated infrastructure – physical (energy, transport, logistics), trade and financial (mutual settlements, regional financial institutions) – as well as to develop continental cooperation within the framework of the green agenda and humanitarian ties.
Edward Elgar Publishing eBooks, Mar 12, 2024
Social Science Research Network, 2024
The goal of this report is to examine the main trends in infrastructure development in the Eurasi... more The goal of this report is to examine the main trends in infrastructure development in the Eurasian region. The report analyses the state of infrastructure in key sectors of interest to multilateral development banks (MDBs), including the EDB (transport, logistics, energy, water, telecommunications, etc.). It focuses on strategic areas for future infrastructure development that will contribute to greater economic integration in the region. Based on the identified trends in infrastructure development, the report suggests promising areas of activity for major investment market actors (including the forms of investment used) and helps to track institutional changes and define government priorities for further development. In the current environment, the Central Asian region has grown in importance and is the focus of interest for key political and economic actors, and is therefore accorded the greatest attention in the report.
EDB Reports and Working Papers, 2024
Drinking water accounts for merely 7% of total water consumption in Central Asia, but its supply ... more Drinking water accounts for merely 7% of total water consumption in Central Asia, but its supply plays a special priority role in sustainable development. Drinking water is a critical health factor. However, the poor technical condition of water supply and treatment facilities in all countries of Central Asia (depreciation: up to 80%) prevents their proper operation, making it impossible to produce drinking water of high quality. The sector suffers from high water loss (up to 55%), with 9.9 million people (13.5% of total population) having no access to safe drinking water. Achievement of SDG 6 in Central Asia is possible if a $2 billion infrastructure financing gap is closed every year in 2025–2030. International financial institutions, multilateral development banks, and development agencies can contribute to reducing the investment deficit in the water supply and sanitation sector. One of the possible solutions is to mobilise private capital and management expertise of major players (including through public-private partnerships). It is advisable to enforce balanced investment planning strategies and policies, review tariffs, increase the R&D and educational potential of the water sector, etc.
EDB Reports and Working Papers, 2024
The Eurasian Transport Network is a system of interconnected latitudinal and meridional internati... more The Eurasian Transport Network is a system of interconnected latitudinal and meridional international transport corridors and routes providing trade and economic links between Eurasian countries and international markets. The North-South and East-West corridors enable foreign trade and transit transport, contributing to unleashing the potential of Eurasia as an intersection of trade and transport routes. This report analyses the current state of key Eurasian transport corridors, their bottlenecks, and development prospects. It also reviews initiatives and projects to create new international transport corridors and routes in Eurasia. Analysis of administrative and other non-physical barriers is complemented with recommendations for improving soft infrastructure, which increases the efficiency of investment in transport system development. A special focus is on landlocked countries in Central Asia. The report contains detailed factual information on the current state and prospects for the development of transport corridors and routes of the Eurasian Transport Network and is accompanied by maps and diagrams.
Macroeconomic Outlook 2024–2026, 2024
The document contains a detailed description of the current domestic and external macroeconomic c... more The document contains a detailed description of the current domestic and external macroeconomic conditions, and a consistent set of forecasts. The analysis covers existing mutual links among six economies (Armenia, Belarus, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Russia, and Tajikistan) and their key trading partners. Macroeconomic projections are developed by the EDB using the integrated modelling system underpinned by a multi-country dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model. Additional information on that system is presented in a joint EDB and EEC report (EDB, 2016).
EDB Reports and Working Papers, 2024
The goal of this report is to examine the main trends in infrastructure development in the Eurasi... more The goal of this report is to examine the main trends in infrastructure development in the Eurasian region. The report analyses the state of infrastructure in key sectors of interest to multilateral development banks (MDBs), including the EDB (transport, logistics, energy, water, telecommunications, etc.). It focuses on strategic areas for future infrastructure development that will contribute to greater economic integration in the region. Based on the identified trends in infrastructure development, the report suggests promising areas of activity for major investment market actors (including the forms of investment used) and helps to track institutional changes and define government priorities for further development. In the current environment, the Central Asian region has grown in importance and is the focus of interest for key political and economic actors, and is therefore accorded the greatest attention in the report.
EDB Reports 24/1, 2024
Economic cooperation in Eurasia, building mutually beneficial horizontal ties between the EAEU a... more Economic cooperation in Eurasia, building mutually beneficial horizontal ties between the EAEU and other integration associations and Eurasian countries, needs solutions that are pragmatic, flexible, and at the same time realisable. This report contains a “menu” of specific proposals which could be implemented in the Eurasian space to create an integrated infrastructure – physical (energy, transport, logistics), trade and financial (mutual settlements, regional financial institutions) – as well as to develop continental cooperation within the framework of the green agenda and humanitarian ties.
EDB Reports and Working Papers, 2024
External academic mobility and strengthening of international ties in the area of education are i... more External academic mobility and strengthening of international ties in the area of education are important long-term regional development and integration tools. At the same time, the current EAEU academic mobility metrics point to stagnation at best, or a sluggish latent crisis at worst. The future of the Eurasian integration can be secured by setting up a large-scale interstate programme of educational and academic mobility for university students, post-graduates, and professors, as well as schoolchildren and teachers. Geography of the programme could be expanded to include not only the member states of the Eurasian region (EAEU, the CIS), but also the Greater Eurasian Partnership, that is discussed and justified in detail in this working paper.
EDB Macroeconomic Outlook 2024–2026, 2023
The Eurasian Development Bank has published its Macroeconomic Outlook, presenting a preliminary o... more The Eurasian Development Bank has published its Macroeconomic Outlook, presenting a preliminary overview of economic developments in the Bank’s member states for 2023, along with key macroeconomic projections for 2024, as well as 2025 and 2026.
The report “Eurasian Economic Integration – 2017” reflects the directions, events and decisions t... more The report “Eurasian Economic Integration – 2017” reflects the directions, events and decisions that determine the current vectors of integration processes in the Eurasian Economic Union. The authors offer fresh data and analytical insights with respect to: macroeconomic development; changes in trade and investment capital flows; the labor market; and progress in non-tariff barriers elimination. They provide a detailed review of certain critical developments including: endorsement of the EAEU Customs Code; completion of negotiations on the common drugs and medical products market; and acceleration of efforts to create free trade areas.
Russian Abstract: В докладе «Евразийская экономическая интеграция – 2017» отражены направления, с... more Russian Abstract: В докладе «Евразийская экономическая интеграция – 2017» отражены направления, события и решения, задающие векторы интеграционных процессов в Евразийском экономическом союзе. В работе приведены актуальные данные и аналитика по макроэкономическому развитию, динамике торговли и инвестиций, рынку труда. Также анализируется прогресс в устранении нетарифных барьеров. Детально рассмотрены такие важные процессы, как согласование Таможенного кодекса ЕАЭС, достижение договоренностей по общему рынку лекарственных средств и медицинских изделий, а также ускорение работы по созданию зон свободной торговли. English Abstract: The report “Eurasian Economic Integration – 2017” reflects the directions, events and decisions that determine the current vectors of integration processes in the Eurasian Economic Union. The authors offer fresh data and analytical insights with respect to: macroeconomic development; changes in trade and investment capital flows; the labor market; and progress in non-tariff barriers elimination. They provide a detailed review of certain critical developments including: endorsement of the EAEU Customs Code; completion of negotiations on the common drugs and medical products market; and acceleration of efforts to create free trade areas.
Palgrave Macmillan eBooks, Feb 18, 2014
Probably the most surprising and significant change in the evolution of economic links in the Eur... more Probably the most surprising and significant change in the evolution of economic links in the Eurasian continent is the rise of multinational corporations from Russia and China. While two decades ago both countries were mostly (more or less successful) beneficiaries of foreign direct investment, in the last ten years both Russia and China have become important international players. Unfortunately in both cases the quality of statistical data on the activity of multinationals is poor; this is also true for the geographic targets of multinationals. It is difficult to understand, therefore, whether multinationals from Russia and China are, in fact, ‘global’ or ‘regional’, and if they are ‘regional’, whether the focus of their activity is East Asia, the post-Soviet space or Eurasia in general. Overall, the literature on emerging multinationals concludes that they usually exhibit a pronounced regional focus.1 The important question in the context of this book is how to define this ‘relevant’ region, which also seems to change over time. In the remaining part of this chapter, we will explore the problem in greater detail.
Palgrave Macmillan eBooks, Feb 18, 2014
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Papers by Evgeny Vinokurov
This paper has a particular focus on regional and sub-regional MDBs, because the specifics of how they raise shareholders’ capital differ significantly from those of global MDBs. Regional/sub-regional MDBs are more flexible than global MDBs, have a better understanding of the conditions of member countries and home regions, and therefore can be more efficient. At the same time, they urgently need additional capital to expand their operations.
The G20 should encourage and incentivize regional/sub-regional MDBs to embrace a lending capacity expansion strategy consistent with their specific strengths and weaknesses. The authors discuss available options for capital increase for regional/subregional MDBs. These include increasing existing shareholders’ capital; membership expansion by attracting regional and non-regional countries, institutional investors, and other MDBs; as well as non-conventional methods (e.g., rechanneling the IMF’s special drawing rights to MDBs).
This paper has a particular focus on regional and sub-regional MDBs, because the specifics of how they raise shareholders’ capital differ significantly from those of global MDBs. Regional/sub-regional MDBs are more flexible than global MDBs, have a better understanding of the conditions of member countries and home regions, and therefore can be more efficient. At the same time, they urgently need additional capital to expand their operations.
The G20 should encourage and incentivize regional/sub-regional MDBs to embrace a lending capacity expansion strategy consistent with their specific strengths and weaknesses. The authors discuss available options for capital increase for regional/subregional MDBs. These include increasing existing shareholders’ capital; membership expansion by attracting regional and non-regional countries, institutional investors, and other MDBs; as well as non-conventional methods (e.g., rechanneling the IMF’s special drawing rights to MDBs).
This insightful Companion provides an in-depth, systematic analysis of the Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU), an economic union of several post-Soviet Eurasian states.
Bringing together an international collective of established academic experts on the EAEU and Eurasian regionalism, the editors showcase a diverse range of perspectives and backgrounds on the EAEU to reflect its complex reality. The Companion reviews the available evidence on the EAEU, examining its evolution, governance, policies, and outlook as well as delving into key theoretical and policy debates on this particularly contested regional organization. Taking stock of the tectonic changes occurring in the post-Soviet Eurasia, it highlights potential gaps in the collective knowledge and discusses possible scenarios for the future of the EAEU.
Exploring the EAEU’s impact on trade, migration, and foreign direct investment in the post-Soviet Eurasia, this astute Companion will prove indispensable to academics and researchers in the fields of political science and economics, particularly those with an interest in Russian and Eurasian studies and comparative regionalism. Its analysis of the challenges the EAEU is currently facing will also benefit think tank analysts with a focus on Russia, China, Central Asia, and Eurasia in general.
Contributors include: Tom Casier, Barbara Fritz, Andrea Gawrich, Yoshiko M. Herrera, Marcin Kaczmarski, Alexander Knobel, Dmitrii Kofanov, Andrei Korobkov, Alexander Libman, Anton Malakhov, Laurissa Mühlich, Murad Nasibov, Vladimir Pereboev, Jacopo Maria Pepe, Nikita Pyzhikov, Alessandra Russo, Richard Sakwa, Federico Salvati, Philipp Schröder, Taras Tsukarev, Evgeny Vinokurov, Viachaslau Yarashevich