Papers by Victoria Babajanyan
Macroeconomic Forecasts 2025–2027, 2024
The document includes a detailed description of current domestic and external macroeconomic condi... more The document includes a detailed description of current domestic and external macroeconomic conditions, as well as harmonised forecasts. The analysis takes into account the existing interrelationships between the economies of Armenia, Belarus, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Russia, Tajikistan and the main trading partner countries. The macroeconomic forecasts are prepared by the EDB using an integrated system of models based on a multi-country structural dynamic macroeconomic general equilibrium model. More detailed information on this system is presented in a joint EDB and EEC report (EDB, 2016).
EDB Reports and Working Papers, 2024
MDBs contribute significantly to the international development agenda. Funding for member countri... more MDBs contribute significantly to the international development agenda. Funding for member countries and regional connectivity projects depends largely on the ability to expand lending capacity of such MDBs. This paper covers the whole ‘MDB family’ of institutions, but highlights regional and sub-regional MDBs because of their specifics of raising shareholders’ capital. The study discusses seven standard and novel options for increasing capital: (1) increasing existing shareholders’ capital; (2) new regional shareholders; (3) new non-regional states; (4) attracting institutional investors; (5) larger MDBs’ participation in a smaller MDB’s capital; (6) rechanneling the SDRs to the MDBs’ capital; (7) issuing perpetual subordinated debt available to the public. Based on case studies, we illustrate different capital enhancement strategies of MDBs that, in addition to raising capital, could lead to positive effects, related to improvement in credit rating, corporate governance, strengthening of financial position, and international status. Additionally we discuss capital optimization, which is complementary to capital expansion.
EDB Macroeconomic Outlook 2024–2026, 2023
The Eurasian Development Bank has published its Macroeconomic Outlook, presenting a preliminary o... more The Eurasian Development Bank has published its Macroeconomic Outlook, presenting a preliminary overview of economic developments in the Bank’s member states for 2023, along with key macroeconomic projections for 2024, as well as 2025 and 2026.
EDB Macroeconomic Outlook, 2023
The Eurasian Development Bank has published its Macroeconomic Outlook for 2023–2025. This analysi... more The Eurasian Development Bank has published its Macroeconomic Outlook for 2023–2025. This analysis summarises economic developments in the Bank’s member states in early 2023 and provides key macroeconomic projections for the region’s countries until the end of the year and for 2024–2025.
SSRN Electronic Journal
The economic role and prospects of Central Asia are still not fully appreciated by the world. Ove... more The economic role and prospects of Central Asia are still not fully appreciated by the world. Over the last 20 years, the countries of the region have made significant progress in their development, and have far-reaching growth prospects. The region’s GDP has been increasing at an average rate of 6.2% per year in real terms, reaching $347 billion. The population of Central Asia is almost 77 million, and it keeps growing at the rate of 2% per year. Inward FDI stock is estimated at $211 billion, with foreign trade turnover having increased sixfold since 2000. However, because of inertia, the international community still fails to perceive the region as a major player on the economic map of the world. The purpose of this report is to offer a fresh perspective on Central Asia as a large and dynamic region. The report provides an analysis of economic development outcomes for the countries of the region, an assessment of their successes and challenges, and defines points of further economic growth. The strategic role of Central Asia in the vast Eurasian space will be increasing: the region will become more important for its immediate neighbours, and for its key economic partners — Russia and China. The countries of the region received an historic chance to take advantage of their transit position, and of the opportunity to expand into external markets through emerging international transport corridors. A significant potential is offered by coordinated development of the water and energy complex, including “green” power engineering. To unlock the region’s potential, it is important to overcome certain other challenges, such as the lack of access to the sea, resource dependence, low level of financial development, and impact of climate change.
Social Science Research Network, Jul 1, 2021
ERN: Political Economy (Topic), 2021
This report assesses the potential effects of integration of the Republic of Uzbekistan with the ... more This report assesses the potential effects of integration of the Republic of Uzbekistan with the Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU), and lists the most promising areas of cooperation between the current Union member countries and Uzbekistan. The authors have examined the key indicators of social and economic development of Uzbekistan and the main areas of trade and investment cooperation between the republic and the EAEU, and have presented an in-depth review of two sectors that are critical for Uzbekistan and for Central Asia as a whole: transport and the water and energy complex. The authors have concluded that, inasmuch as Uzbekistan is a large and strategically positioned Central Asia player, resolution of regional development issues without its participation will not make much progress. Deeper economic integration between Uzbekistan and the EAEU may become a major driver of investment and trade cooperation.
IMF Working Papers
WP/22/118 IMF Working Papers describe research in progress by the author(s) and are published to ... more WP/22/118 IMF Working Papers describe research in progress by the author(s) and are published to elicit comments and to encourage debate. The views expressed in IMF Working Papers are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily represent the views of the IMF, its Executive Board, or IMF management.
Reports and Working Papers 22/3. Almaty, Bishkek, Moscow: Eurasian Development Bank, 2022
The economic role and prospects of Central Asia are still not fully appreciated by the world. Ove... more The economic role and prospects of Central Asia are still not fully appreciated by the world. Over the last 20 years, the countries of the region have made significant progress in their development, and have far-reaching growth prospects. The region’s GDP has been increasing at an average rate of 6.2% per year in real terms, reaching $347 billion. The population of Central Asia is almost 77 million, and it keeps growing at the rate of 2% per year. Inward FDI stock is estimated at $211 billion, with foreign trade turnover having increased sixfold since 2000. However, because of inertia, the international community still fails to perceive the region as a major player on the economic map of the world. The purpose of this report is to offer a fresh perspective on Central Asia as a large and dynamic region. The report provides an analysis of economic development outcomes for the countries of the region, an assessment of their successes and challenges, and defines points of further economic growth. The strategic role of Central Asia in the vast Eurasian space will be increasing: the region will become more important for its immediate neighbours, and for its key economic partners — Russia and China. The countries of the region received an historic chance to take advantage of their transit position, and of the opportunity to expand into external markets through emerging international transport corridors. A significant potential is offered by coordinated development of the water and energy complex, including “green” power engineering. To unlock the region’s potential, it is important to overcome certain other challenges, such as the lack of access to the sea, resource dependence, low level of financial development, and impact of climate change.
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Papers by Victoria Babajanyan