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    ES2-8 Tues SeaLevel

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    ES2-8 Tues SeaLevel

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    tatehustler1732
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    es2-8

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    es2-8

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    4 views85 pages

    ES2-8 Tues SeaLevel

    Uploaded by

    tatehustler1732
    es2-8

    Copyright:

    © All Rights Reserved
    Download as PPT, PDF, TXT or read online from Scribd
    Download as ppt, pdf, or txt
    of 85

    • MEASUREMENT

    • CAUSES

    • CONSEQUENCES

    • PROJECTIONS

    • MITIGATION OPTIONS
    We live on land, but sea level is rising.

    Higher sea level = less land.

    We lose.
    WHAT IS SEA LEVEL?

    Relative Sea level:


    Elevation of the sea surface relative to any specific point on
    the shore. Relevant to only one point on the coast. Measured
    with tide gauges (and stratigraphy).

    Eustatic sea level:


    Relation between volume of Earth’s ocean water and volume
    of Earth’s ocean basins. Relevant globally. Difficult to
    measure except by satellite altimetry.
    Transgressive sands
    Offshore shales, siltstones
    Shoreface fine sands
    Shoreface fine-med sands
    Coastal plain deposits
    Fluvial channel deposits
    Lacustrine deposits
    Georgiev Fm.offshore shales, siltstones

    Fence diagram showing regional variations of Upper Jurassic strata in West Siberia.
    Fixed to Bazhenov Fm.
    RELATIVE SL!

    Crustal rebound
    (Post-glacial rebound)

    Younger Dryas cooling


    depressed crust
    20th CENTURY EUSTATIC SEA LEVEL RISE
    (AS INFERRED FROM TIDE GAUGES)
    1.8  0.1 mm/yr [Douglas, 1997]
    1.8  0.6 mm/yr [Peltier & Jiang, 1997]
    1.8  0.1 mm/yr [Douglas, 1991]
    1.2  0.4 mm/yr [Nakiboglu & Lambeck, 1991]
    1.7  0.13 mm/yr [Trupin & Wahr, 1990]
    2.4  0.9 mm/yr [Peltier &Tushingham, 1989]
    1.2  0.3 mm/yr [Gornitz & Lebedeff, 1987]
    1.7 mm/yr [Barnett, 1983]
    1.5  0.3 mm/yr [Hicks, 1978]
    1.0 mm/yr [Fairbridge & Krebs, 1962]
    1.2-2.2 mm/year [IPCC, 2007]
    1.5-1.9 mm/yr [IPCC, 2013]

    1.4 mm yr–1 over the period 1901–1990 to


    2.1 mm yr–1 over the period 1970–2015 to
    3.2 mm yr–1 over the period 1993–2015 to
    3.6 mm yr–1 over the period 2006–2015 [IPCC, 2021]
    SLR speeding up!
    (40 mm in 10 yrs = 4 mm/yr!)
    Long term: Tectonic
    - Alters volume of ocean basins (extension, compression)

    Medium-term: Greenhouse/icehouse
    - Alters volume of ocean water (ice, Temp.)

    Short-term: Anthropogenic
    - Moves water in or out of ocean
    - Climate change alters ice, Temp.
    Volume of basins depends on:

    1. Age of ocean floor (older is deeper)


    2. Continental collisions or stretching (affects area of ocean)
    3. Sediment fill

    Volume of ocean water depends on:

    1. Water temperature (85 cm/˚C, plus more for lithosphere)


    2. Glacial ice volume (not sea ice!)
    3. Water storage on land (dams, aquifers, lakes, etc.)
    Volume of Ocean Basin
    Volume of Ocean Water

    LONG-TERM TEMPERATURE EFFECTS

    • Thousand year time scale- 85 cm/˚C

    • Million year time scale- 120 cm/˚C


    Causes of Short-Term Sea Level
    Rise:

    1. Glacial
    2. Ocean Temperature

    3. Direct Anthropogenic

    #1
    uncertainty!
    OCEAN TEMPERATURE

    From IPCC WG1 Third Assessment Report


    Volume of Ocean Water
    What to people do to cause sea level rise?

    • Groundwater Mining

    • Surface Water Diversion

    • Deforestation

    • Desertification

    • Wetland filling or drainage


    CONVERSELY…
    After Vorosmarty and Sahagian, 2000,. Bioscience, 50, 753-765
    •
    BUT- Dams total does not include ground water or small dams!
    0.5 mm/yr from large reservoirs

    Add unknowns…

    0.5 mm/yr from small, unregistered reservoirs

    1 mm/y from impounded ground water


    WHAT IF WE STOP BUILDING NEW DAMS?

    SEA LEVEL WILL RISE FASTER!


    • Quantify drivers of past/present sea level change (ice volume; ocean T)

    • Predict future of these drivers (from climate models)

    • Account for past positive and negative anthropogenic contributions

    • Determine which will continue into the future

    • Normalize tide gauge and satellite records for above

    • Then use to assess glacial and thermal contributions

    • For future projections, include assessment of human activity


    Oops!
    Does not account for anthropogenic direct contributions…
    AR4
    (2007)
    AR4
    (2007)

    6 cm in 20 yrs = 3 mm/yr
    AR5
    (2013)
    60 cm in 100 yrs = 6 mm/yr

    Sea Level Rise is speeding up!


    IPCC AR6 (2021)
    Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP)

    The numbers indicate the


    radiative forcing in w/m**2
    AR5
    (2013)
    Effect of Anthropogenic CO2 on the climate system
    Who Cares about Sea Level Rise?

    Coastal Impacts
    Sharp's Island, Maryland, ca. 1950. This photo shows what remained of an island that
    probably was approximately 700 acres in size at the time of original settlement in the late
    17th century, and that still covered almost 600 acres in 1850. Until the first decades of the
    20th century, Sharp's Island supported several large farms (at least one of 300 acres) and a
    hotel until 1910. Today, the island has disappeared, with only the historic Sharp's Island
    Light marking its former position.
    3. Impact of climate change: sea level
    Past
    • 130,000 yr ago, sea level was 4-6 m higher
    •Greenland ice sheet is melting
    • What for the future?

    Otto-Bliesner et al., 2006

    Present

    Future?

    http://www.geo.arizona.edu/dgesl/
    Sea level rise exacerbates storm impacts
    Hurricanes are fueled by evaporating sea water.
    The warmer the water, the more energy imparted.
    Warming sea surface temperatures are making stronger storms.

    Recall Sandy…
    As sea level rises, stronger storms will cause more flooding!
    Vulnerability to 44 cm sea level rise
    Sea level is rising!

    What to do? - Store more water on land?


    Management
    options?
    1. Continue building dams at
    20th century rate?
    (known social/environmental
    consequences)

    2. Purposefully sequester
    additional water
    (Unforeseen consequences!)

    3. Curb emissions that lead to


    sea level rise.
    Sequester more water on land?

    Some outrageous ideas:

    • Divert surface water

    • Pump water to high elevation dry basins

    • Build strategic dams

    • Enhance Antarctic precipitation


    Congo 1000 km
    Volume of “Congo Reservoir”
    Basin area below 500 m elevation = 1.1x1012 m2

    Volume = 1.0 x 1014 m3

    Ocean basin area = 3.6x1014 m2

    SO- Flooding Congo lowers sea level by 28 cm!

    But don’t do it!


    Global area covered by dammed reservoirs
    is 400,000 km2

    75% of the world's dams and reservoirs have


    been built in the past 40 years, so the global
    rate of land loss from dam building is 0.75 x
    400,000/ 35 = 8580 km2/ year
    • Sea level changes at all time scales
    • People affect sea level through climate and also directly
    • Uncertainties- small reservoirs, impounded ground water,
    aquifer mining rates, natural changes in ground water…
    • Critical gaps- dams inventory, ground water, climate effects
    • What about Antarctica? (It is now melting)
    • Recommendations- fill above gaps!
    -Do what we can to halt the drivers of SL rise.
    (As it is, we will need to adapt to unavoidable SL rise.)
    Suggestions:
    (a humble opinion)

    1. Address causes of sea level rise:


    ACTUAL mitigation (by new technologies, macroengineering or
    otherwise) of warming due to greenhouse gas emissions, land
    use

    2. Lookout! For ocean acidification…

    3. Better predict 21st century sea level rise (with, without mitigation)

    4. Adapt strategically to predicted unavoidable sea level rise

    5. Do not give the impression that actual climate change mitigation is


    unnecessary or impossible
    BOTTOM LINE- Need a “diversified portfolio” of approaches to
    mitigation, sequestration and adaptation.

    Avoid the unmanageable so that we can manage the unavoidable!


    Way important concepts from today:

    Relative vs. eustatic Sea Level

    How measured at various timescales

    Holocene and Post-industrial sea level history

    Direct Anthropogenic infulences

    CAUSES- Short (people); medium (glacial); Long (tectonic)

    Projections

    Consequences

    Mitigation options
    How to estimate impounded water

    Logical flowchart

    1. Construct a global map of bio-hydro-

    Unmixing branch
    climatological zones (direct
    branch)

    2. Construct a map of irrigated/non-


    irrigated agriculture based on time
    series analysis of precipitation and
    moisture index, calibrated using
    Direct extrapolation branch field and Landsat data (direct
    branch)

    3. Calculate small impoundment water


    volume per unit area using
    Landsat and field studies (direct
    branch)

    4. Estimate small impoundment areas


    by unmixing MODIS, based on
    Landsat training data (unmixing
    branch)

    5. Calculate total impounded water


    volume by multiplying the water
    volume per area in a zone by the
    total area of the zone (direct

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