Overview CLIMATE AND

DISASTER RISK ASSESSMENT (CDRA)

Department of Human Settlements and
Urban Development
OBJECTIVES

• Discuss the Philippine Legal and Policy Framework to address

Climate Change and Hazards
• Understand the relationship/convergence of Climate Change
and Hazards
• Understand and apply the CDRA Process
OUTLINE

The Legal Bases of CDRA

Purpose of Mainstreaming CDRA into the Local Planning System

Basic Concept and Framework

CDRA Process
THE LEGAL BASES OF CDRA
THE LEGAL BASES OF CDRA
The Philippine Climate Change and Disaster Policy

Republic Act No. 9729 Republic Act No. 10121

Climate Change Act of the Philippine Disaster Reduction
Philippines and Management Act
THE LEGAL BASES OF CDRA
International Frameworks

Sustainable Development Goals

2015-2030
(New York, Sep 2015)

Priority 1 Priority 2
Sendai Framework for Disaster Understanding
disaster risk
Strengthening disaster risk
governance to manage disaster risk

Risk Reduction 2015-2030 Priority 3 Priority 4

(Sendai, Mar 2015) Investing in disaster
risk reduction for
Enhancing disaster preparedness for effective
response, and to “Build Back Better” in
resilience recovery, rehabilitation and reconstruction

Paris Climate Change

Agreement
(Paris, Dec 2015)
THE LEGAL BASES OF CDRA
Guides for Mainstreaming CCA-DRR into CLUP and ZO

Climate Change Adaptation Supplemental Guidelines on Mainstreaming

and Disaster Risk Climate and Disaster Risks in the
Reduction (Volume 2, CLUP Comprehensive Land Use Plan (Project
Guidebook 2014, HLURB) Climate Twin Phoenix: HLURB/Climate Change
Commission/UNDP/AusAID)
 THE LEGAL BASES OF CDRA
Supporting HLURB (DHSUD) Policies on CCA-DRR Mainstreaming in the CLUP and ZO
 PURPOSE OF
MAINSTREAMING CDRA INTO
THE LOCAL PLANNING
SYSTEM
 PURPOSE OF MAINSTREAMING CDRA INTO THE
LOCAL PLANNING SYSTEM

Better understand natural hazards and

climate change and how these would likely
alter the development path of the locality
Understand risks posed by natural hazards and
climate change on exposed areas, sectors and
communities
Identify priority decision areas and
development challenges posed by climate
change and natural hazards
Determine realistic projections on demand
and supply
 PURPOSE OF MAINSTREAMING CDRA INTO THE
LOCAL PLANNING SYSTEM

Incorporate spatial development goals,

objectives and targets to reduce risks and
vulnerabilities

Make informed decisions to effectively

address risks and vulnerabilities

Identify appropriate risk reduction and climate

change adaptation and mitigation measures as
inputs to the comprehensive development planning
and investment programming
PURPOSE OF MAINSTREAMING CDRA INTO THE
LOCAL PLANNING SYSTEM
CDRA as a Tool

CLUP LDRRMP LRNDP

CDP LCCAP LPTRP

 PURPOSE OF MAINSTREAMING CDRA INTO THE
LOCAL PLANNING SYSTEM
CLUP Guidebook Volume 1: Procedural Steps in the preparation of Comprehensive Land Use Plan and Zoning Ordinance

CDRA as additional tool for

analyzing the Situation
BASIC CONCEPT AND
FRAMEWORK
 BASIC CONCEPT AND FRAMEWORK
Convergence of Climate Change Adaptation and Disaster Risk Management

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 BASIC CONCEPT AND FRAMEWORK
Climate and Disaster Risk Assessment
• CDRA (Climate and Disaster Risk Locating houses
Assessment) is a methodology to
understand and assess the potential
At least 240 houses are exposed
impacts of hazards to people and their
properties, and other elements at risk. to flood level 0.5 to >1.5 meter

• CDRA goes beyond the conventional How many are made of light materials?
“risk assessment” as it incorporates
climate-related hazards and their How many people are exposed?
prospective impacts. Who are they?

How many households need to relocated?

Low, medium and high risk?

BASIC CONCEPT AND FRAMEWORK
Climate and Disaster Risk Assessment

Population

Studying risks and Urban Use Areas

vulnerabilities of Natural-Resource
exposed elements Based Production
associated with Areas
natural hazards and
Lifeline Utilities
climate change.

Critical Point Facilities

Climate and Disaster Risk Assessment

DISASTER RISK ASSESSMENT

CLIMATE RISK ASSESSMENT (CRA)
(DRA)

Climate Projections Hazards

Sea Level Extreme
Temperature Rainfall Flooding Landslides Tsunami
Rise Events

Climate Impact Chains Systems of Interest

Natural Critical
Coastal Urban Urban Use Lifeline
Forest Agriculture Population Resource- Point
Area Area Areas
Based
Utilities
Facilities
BASIC CONCEPT AND FRAMEWORK
Risk Framework (AR5)

- CLIMATE AND
DISASTER RISK
ASSESSMENT
 BASIC CONCEPT AND FRAMEWORK
Basic Concept (AR5)

Risk is the expected losses (of lives, persons injured, property

damaged and economic activity disrupted) due to a particular hazard
for a given area and reference period.

The unit of measure of risk could be number of fatality or value of

damaged property.
 BASIC CONCEPT AND FRAMEWORK
Basic Concept (AR5)

Likelihood of occurrence is the estimated period of time expressed

in years, that a hazard of a certain magnitude is likely to repeat itself.

The unit of measure of risk could be number of fatality or value of

damaged property.
 BASIC CONCEPT AND FRAMEWORK
Basic Concept (AR5)

Severity of Consequence is a measure of the degree of impact,

such as injury, death, damage, interruption brought to the sector of
concern
 BASIC CONCEPT AND FRAMEWORK
The concept and practice of reducing disaster risks through systematic efforts to analyze and
manage the causal factors of disasters, including through reduced exposure to hazards, lessened
vulnerability of people and property, wise management of land and the environment, and
improved preparedness for adverse events (UNISDR, 2009).

Hazard Exposure
Risk Hazard Exposure

Risk

Vulnerability
Vulnerability
 BASIC CONCEPT AND FRAMEWORK
Risk reduction measures should focus on reducing occurrences of
hazards, and reducing exposure and vulnerability to these hazards

Hazard Exposure
Hazard Exposure
Risk
Risk

Vulnerability
Vulnerability
BASIC CONCEPT AND FRAMEWORK
AR5 Conceptual Framework

Hazard (AR5): The potential occurrence of a natural or human-

induced physical event or trend, or physical impact, that may cause
loss of life, injury, or other health impacts, as well as damage and
loss to property, infrastructure, livelihoods, service provision, and
environmental resources.
Exposure (AR5): The presence of people; livelihoods;
environmental services and resources; infrastructure; or economic,
social, or cultural assets in places that could be adversely affected.
BASIC CONCEPT AND FRAMEWORK
AR5 Conceptual Framework

Adaptive capacity (AR5): The ability of systems, institutions,

humans, and other organisms to adjust to potential damage, to take
advantage of opportunities, or to respond to consequences.

Sensitivity (AR5): The degree to which a system or species is

affected, either adversely or beneficially, by climate variability or
change. The effect may be direct or indirect.
BASIC CONCEPT AND FRAMEWORK
AR5 Conceptual Framework

Risk (AR5): The potential for consequences where something of

value is at stake and where the outcome is uncertain, recognizing
the diversity of values. Risk is often represented as probability of
occurrence of hazardous events or trends multiplied by the impacts
if these events or trends occur. Risk results from the interaction of
vulnerability, exposure, and hazard.
CDRA PROCESS
CDRA PROCESS
• Collect and Organize Climate Change and Hazard
Step 1 Information

• Scope the Potential Impacts of Hazards and Climate

Step 2 Change

• Develop Exposure Data Base

Step 3

• Conduct Climate Change and Disaster Risk

Step 4 Assessment

• Summarize Findings
Step 5
CDRA PROCESS
Step 1. Collect and Organize Climate Change and Hazard Information

Outputs:
• Local Climate Change Projections
• Inventory of natural hazards and their characteristics
• Tabular compilation of historical disaster damage/loss data
• Summary of barangay-level hazard inventory matrix
CDRA PROCESS
Step 1. Collect and Organize Climate Change and Hazard Information

The climate projections are available for each

region and province of the country. The
SUCs, at first pass, may consider the
provincial data, and consult PAGASA on the
applicability.
• Seasonal Temperature
• Seasonal Rainfall
• Frequency of Extreme Events
CDRA PROCESS
Step 1. Collect and Organize Climate Change and Hazard Information
Medium-range Emission
SEASON Scenario
2020 2050
Dec-Jan-Feb (DJF) 0.8 to 1.0 1.6 to 2.2
Mar-Apr-May (MAM) 0.9 to 1.3 2.0 to 2.5
Jun-Jul-Aug (JJA) 0.8 to 1.3 1.6 to 2.6
Sep-Oct-Nov (SON) 0.8 to 1.1 1.5 to 2.2

Warm months becoming hotter

 READY Project Multihazard
Hazard Information Map

• Earthquake-
induced landslide
• Ground Rupture
• Ground Shaking
• Liquefaction
• Tsunami
• Volcanic

Source:
http://www.philvocs.dost.gov.ph
CDRA PROCESS
Step 1. Collect and Organize Climate Change and Hazard Information
Rain-induced Landslide Climate Adjusted Flood Hazard Maps
Susceptibility Map (flood modelling)
 CDRA PROCESS
Step 1. Collect and Organize Climate Change and Hazard Information
Historical disaster damage/loss data
No. of casualties No. of Affected No. of houses Damage to Properties
Source of
Observed Daily
Hazard Events and Description Affected Barangays Private/ Informatio
Rainfall Dead Injured Missing Persons Families Totally Partially Infra Agri Inst. Total
Comm’l n

December 26,, 1993: flood due to

Disaster
Typhoon Puring. Affected majority
All barangays 0 0 0 6,960 1,160 0 200 1,126,350 2,137,500 0 0 3,263,850 report
of the population.

Brgys. Pautao,
7-Jan-02: Flood due to heavy rain. Dugsangon, Pyapag, Disaster
1 0 0 No data 634 0 0 No data No data 0 0 0
Affected five barangays. Pongtud and report
Cambuayon
Brgys. Poblacion,
December 22, 2003: flood due to Campo, Pautao,
Disaster
continuous heavy rains. Affected 7 Cabugao, Payapag, 0 0 0 775 155 0 5 1,079,000 1,646,250 0 0 2,725,250
report
barangays. Dugsangoand
Cambuayon
Brgys. Poblacion,
December 23, 2005: flood due to
Campo, Pautao, Disaster
continuous heavy rain. Affected 7 1 0 0 378 68 0 0 0 8,373,985 0 0 8,373,985
Cabugao, Payapag, report
barangays.
Dugsangon,andPongtud
Jan. 10-16, 2009: flood due to
Disaster
continuous heavy rain. Affected all All barangays 0 0 0 No Data 433 0 41 3,050,000 1,197,135 0 0 4,247,135
report
barangays
Jan.1-3, 2011: flood due to
Damage
continuous heavy rain. Affected all All barangays 0 0 0 No Data No Data 0 0 4,000,000 483,000 0 0 4,483,000
Report
barangays.
Jan. 24-Feb. 2, 2011 flood due to
2,037/ 256
continuous heavy rain. 256 10,367,79 Damage
All barangays 0 0 0 10,185 Evacuated 0 0 6,100,000 4,267,794 0 0
families evacuated to evacuation 4 Report
 CDRA PROCESS
Step 1. Collect and Organize Climate Change and Hazard Information
Summary barangay level hazard inventory matrix
CDRA PROCESS
Step 2. Scope the Potential Impacts of Hazards and Climate Change

Outputs:
• Summary of potential climate change impacts and potentially
exposed units
• Impact Chain Diagrams
• Climate Change Effects and Impacts Matrix
CDRA PROCESS
Step 2. Scope the Potential Impacts of Hazards and Climate Change

This step takes off from the gathering of climate, climate change,
hazard and disaster information (Step 1)

Rough mapping of potential and existing impacts using Impact

Chain Diagrams or tables (usually per ecosystem/landscape,
sector or system of interests);

Determine climate change stimuli or hazards which will affect key

sectors so it can be studied further in the DRA or CCVA;
CDRA PROCESS
Step 2. Scope the Potential Impacts of Hazards and Climate Change

Sample summary of climate change impacts

using the CLIRAM Tool

 CDRA PROCESS
Step 2. Scope the Potential Impacts of Hazards and Climate Change

Impacts refer to the effects on natural and human systems of physical events, of
disasters, and of climate change – IPCC
CDRA PROCESS
Step 2. Scope the Potential Impacts of Hazards and Climate Change

Sample Impact Chain (Agriculture)

CDRA PROCESS
Step 2. Scope the Potential Impacts of Hazards and Climate Change
CDRA PROCESS
Step 2. Scope the Potential Impacts of Hazards and Climate Change
Summary of Climate Change Effects and Impacts

COASTAL
AGRICULTURE
HEALTH
WATER RESOURCES
FISHERY PRODUCTION
CDRA PROCESS
Step 3. Develop Exposure Data Base

Outputs:
• Exposure Maps (Population, Urban Use Areas, Natural
Resource-based Production Areas, Critical Points,
lifeline/infrastructure)
• Attribute information on exposure, sensitivity, and adaptive
capacity of the various exposure units
CDRA PROCESS
Step 3. Develop Exposure Data Base

Population
Exposure Database provides
baseline information pertaining
to the elements at risk. Urban Use Areas
Elements at risk refer to
population, assets, structure, Natural-Resource
economic activities and Based Production
environmental resources which Areas
are located in areas exposed to
Lifeline Utilities
potential impacts of climate
change and damaging hazard
events. Critical Point Facilities
CDRA PROCESS
Step 3. Develop Exposure Data Base
Urban Use Natural Resource Lifeline Critical Point
Population based Production
Areas Areas Utilities Facilities
• People • Residential • Crop • Transportatio • Educational
Facilities
• Commercial Production n • Health facilities
• Industrial Areas • Communicati • Social Welfare
• Tourism • Forest on related facilities
Production/ • Power • Governance
• Cemeteries • Water related
Protection • Water
• Parks and point facilities
Areas • Communication
Open
Spaces • Fishery point facilities
areas • Power related
• Other unique point facilities
urban uses • Bridges

• Existing land use map • Existing land use • Road maps • Infrastructure and
• Household maps • Infrastructure and utilities
map (Agri areas, utilities map
• Residential land use
forest plantation map
areas) • Waterlines
• Power lines
Exposure maps
Exposure maps
Sample CBMS Data
CDRA PROCESS
Step 3. Develop Exposure Data Base: Population
SHAPEFILES NEEDED Attributes
• Household • Type of Housing Unit
• Age
Control Points • Disability status
(GPS Survey) • Access to early warning system
• Barangay • Informal settlers
• Awareness to hazard impact and climate change
Boundary • Employment Status
• Income status (Poverty Threshold)
• Educational Attainment
• Literacy Status
• Access to Financial Assistance
• Access to Information
• Capacity and Willingness to retrofit or relocate
• Government Investments
CDRA PROCESS
Step 3. Develop Exposure Data Base: Urban Use Area
SHAPEFILES NEEDED Attributes
• Urban Land Use Category (Residential, commercial, industrial)
• Updated Existing • Average construction/replacement cost per square meter
Land Uses • Building condition

• Barangay Boundary • Wall construction materials

• Date of Construction
• Structure employing hazard mitigation design
• Local awareness to climate change
• Area coverage to infrastructure related mitigating measures
• Government Regulations
• Capacity and Willingness to retrofit or relocate
• Government Investments
• Insurance Coverage
• Available Alternative Sites
 CDRA PROCESS
Step 3. Develop Exposure Data Base: Natural Resource-based Production Areas

SHAPEFILES NEEDED Attributes

• Existing Land Use • Classification
• SAFDZ
• Variety Produced
• Barangay Boundary
• Annual Production/ha
• Replacement Cost
• No. of dependent farmers
CDRA PROCESS
Step 3. Develop Exposure Data Base: Critical Point Facilities
SHAPEFILES NEEDED Attributes
• Control Points of Social • Wall construction materials
Facilities (School, • Building Condition
Evacuation Center,
Multipurpose Hall, • Structure employing hazard
Municipal Gym, RHU, mitigation design
Hospitals, water related • Date of Construction
facility, airport, seaport, • Government Regulation on hazard
barangay hall) mitigation and/or structural design
• Barangay Boundary • Access to infrastructure related
mitigating measure
CDRA PROCESS
Step 3. Develop Exposure Data Base: Lifeline Utilities

SHAPEFILES NEEDED Attributes

• Road Network System • Classification
• Drainage System • Length/Distance
• Bridges • Construction/replacement
cost
• Ormeco Pole
• Construction materials used
• Communication Tower
• Condition
• Water Pipeline
• Structure employing hazard
• Barangay Boundary mitigation design
CDRA PROCESS
Step 3. Develop Exposure Data Base
CDRA PROCESS
Step 3. Develop Exposure Data Base
CDRA PROCESS
Step 4. Conduct Climate Change and Disaster Risk Assessment

Outputs:
• Decision Areas and Issues Matrix
• Risk Maps
CDRA PROCESS
Step 4. Conduct Climate Change and Disaster Risk Assessment
CDRA PROCESS
Step 4. Conduct Climate Change and Disaster Risk Assessment
 CDRA PROCESS
Step 4. Conduct Climate Change and Disaster Risk Assessment
Table 3.5 Population Exposure, Sensitivity/Vulnerability and Adaptive Capacity Parameters

Exposure Sensitivity/Vulnerability Adaptive Capacity

Total residential Total residential area Tenure Status Proportion of informal settler households Access to Proportion of individuals with no access to
area allocation per baranagay financial financial assistance (i.e. Pag-Ibig, SSS,
assistance PhilHealth, Credit Cooperatives, Micro-
financing institutions, Property and life
insurance)

Total barangay Total barangay population Wall construction Proportion of households living in dwelling Income below Households with income below the poverty
population materials units with walls made from predominantly poverty threshold
light, salvaged and makeshift type threshold
materials.

Population Estimated population Age Distribution Proportion of young (<5 years Old) and old Employment Proportion of the labor force who are
Density density of the barangay (Above 65) unemployed
(Residential derived by dividing the total
Areas) barangay population with Persons with Disabilities Number/Proportion of population with Education/ Proportion of population with primary level
the estimated residential disabilities literacy rate educational attainment and below / Proportion
land area. of the population who are illiterate

Nutrition status Proportion of malnourished children aged Capacity and Proportion of households willing and have
0-5 years old willingness to existing capacities to retrofit or relocate
retrofit or
relocate

Proportion of households with no access to Government Local government capacity to invest in risk
Access to water
safe water supply investments management and CC adaptation/mitigation
 CDRA PROCESS
Step 4. Conduct Climate Change and Disaster Risk Assessment
Wealth
6 Dimensions of Adaptive Capacity

• Financial resources
Information
• Level of knowledge, info dissemination
Technology
• Example: drought resistant crop types being tested, research conducted
Institution and Governance
• Policies, plans and programs
Social capital
• Capacities, organized groups, CSO, trained staff
Infrastructure
• Structures to withstand climate projections

Source: DILG
 Risk Scores
Indicative Likelihood of Severity of Consequence Score (EV)
Likelihood of Occurrence
Occurrence Score Very High High Moderate Low
4 3 2 1
Likely 4 16 12 8 4
Possible 3 12 9 6 3
Unlikely 2 8 6 4 2
Rare 1 4 3 2 1
 CDRA PROCESS
Step 4. Conduct Climate Change and Disaster Risk Assessment
Risk Maps
 CDRA PROCESS
Step 4. Conduct Climate Change and Disaster Risk Assessment

OTHER EXAMPLES
OF RISK MAPS

Risks to
Ground
Shaking
 CDRA PROCESS
Step 4. Conduct Climate Change and Disaster Risk Assessment

OTHER EXAMPLES
OF RISK MAPS

Flood Risks
 CDRA PROCESS
Step 4. Conduct Climate Change and Disaster Risk Assessment

OTHER EXAMPLES
OF RISK MAPS
CDRA PROCESS
Step 4. Conduct Climate Change and Disaster Risk Assessment
CDRA PROCESS
Step 5. Summarize Findings

Outputs:
• Identified major DECISION AREAS
• List of Risk Management and Adaptation/Mitigation Measures
CDRA PROCESS
Step 5. Summarize Findings

Figure 3.6.1. Detailing of decision areas. Identification of major decision areas (urban use
areas) using the Identified flood risk decision areas (right) and Sea Level Rise vulnerability
decision areas (left). Indicative boundary of two major decision areas in Barangay Igpiit
highlighted in green.
CDRA PROCESS
Step 5. Summarize Findings
 CDRA PROCESS
Step 5. Summarize Findings
Decision Technical Findings Development Policy Intervention
Areas Implications
Buhay na Tubig ▪ Risk Category · 100% have high risk to landslide Death and injuries are Identification of Safe Housing and
Households • 6.83% of households live in makeshift housing.
• 99.64% live below the poverty threshold
expected if no preemptive Relocation Sites – Establishment
near coastal • 2.16% are informal settlers preparation is implemented of relocation sites in low risk areas
area • 1.11% of the households have malnourished to relocate informal settlers
individuals
• 17.87% are young and old dependents Propose Shelter Assistance
• 50% of affected households have access to
infrastructure- Program for all those households
related mitigation measures (IRMM) like living in a makeshift house
evacuation centers
• Most of the households have access to financial Construction of Slope Protection
assistance like 4Ps.
• Majority of households have capacity and
willingness to retrofit or relocate
• Majority of households have access to
information
• Its entire population is high risk to landslide
CDRA PROCESS
Step 5. Summarize Findings

Removing a risk by Reducing the

not locating in the Shifting the risk-
frequency of
area of bearing “DO-NOTHING
occurrence or the
responsibility to SCENARIO”
potential hazard severity of the
another party
impact consequence

RISK MANAGEMENT OPTIONS

CDRA PROCESS
Step 5. Summarize Findings
Mainstreaming Framework of CDRA into CLUP 12-
step Process
References

• CLUP Guidebooks 2013-2014, HLURB

• Supplemental Guidelines on Mainstreaming CCA-DRR into the
CLUP, HLURB
• GIS Guidebook: A Guide to Data Management, HLURB
• PAGASA
THANK YOU!