CLIMATE HAZARD

Faye T. Cruz, Gemma Teresa T. Narisma

Regional Climate Systems, Manila Observatory
Atmospheric Science Program, Physics Department, SOSE, Ateneo de Manila University
CDRA TRAINING
Manila Observatory, 8 October 2018
 Climate Change Impacts

ADAPTATION
(temperature increase, rainfall (food and water resources,
extremes, extreme events, ecosystem and biodiversity,
drought, floods, sea level rise) human and society, human
health)

ADAPTATION
Global warmer
world
Socio-economic
MITIGATION development
pathways
(development, land use,
Greenhouse gas economic growth, population,
Emissions governance)
Environment protection

Adapted from the IPCC climate change integrated framework

 Socio-economic development interacts with weather and climate
change events to influence disaster risk

HAZARD: harmful event that

may cause loss of life, injury,
damage and loss, etc (e.g. Exposure EXPOSURE:
climate and weather events) elements affected
by hazard

Disaster
Risk
Hazard
VULNERABILITY:
Vulnerability predisposition of a
person or group to be
adversely affected

Adapted from IPCC SREX

DISASTER RSK: likelihood of suffering harm, loss; likelihood of severe alteration in

normal functioning (due to hazard interacting with vulnerable conditions)
AT RISK TO
DISASTERS …

Typhoons
Heavy rain
Monsoons
etc

DISASTER
RISK

Exposure Vulnerability
IN A GLOBALLY
WARMER
Intense Typhoons
WORLD Extreme Heavy rain
Enhanced Monsoons
etc

DISASTER
RISK

Exposure Vulnerability
How will our climate
change in the future?
 EMISSIONS RADIATIVE FORCING

http://sedac.ipcc-data.org/ddc/ar5_scenario_process/RCPs.html
 we
a v e
a t h
h e o ur
u c h t o
w m e d e r e
H o a d d p h
o s
a tm
2.29
1.25
0.57

IPCC AR5, 2014

 All Figures © IPCC 2013
Figure SPM.7a
Global average surface temperature change
 In the future ….
Best case scenario Worst case scenario

The challenge of a continuing, increasingly globally

warmer world ….

IPCC AR5
Figure SPM.8a,b All Figures © IPCC 2013

Maps of CMIP5 multi-model mean results

IPCC Assessment Reports since 1990: WGI Contribution

1990

1995

2001

2007

2013

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How do these global
changes/hazards translate
into local hazards?

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Regional climate modeling

http://scied.ucar.edu/longcontent/climate-modeling

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The need for local information

CSIRO Global Climate Model Regional Climate Model

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 Local level changes: Why high resolution,
downscaled information is important

Images: http://www.petrkeil.com/wp-
content/uploads/2013/10/downscaling_1.jpg MANILA OBSERVATORY
http://ehp.niehs.nih.gov/120-a22/
Regional Climate Modeling (Downscaling)

Regional Climate Models

(RCMs)

Global Climate Models

(GCMs)

GCMs simulates response to large scale forcings (e.g. solar radiation, GHG)

RCMs nested w/in GCM at higher resolution (downscaling)

à Simulates effect of local scale forcing, provides fine scale information.

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Topography and resolution
Topography affects winds, affects convergence, rainfall formation

40 km

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Topography and resolution
Topography affects winds, affects convergence, rainfall formation

20 km

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Topography and resolution
Topography affects winds, affects convergence, rainfall formation

5 km

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MULTIPLE SCENARIOS AND ENSEMBLE EXPERIMENTS

“The goal of working with scenarios is not

to predict the future but to better

understand uncertainties and
alternative futures, in order to consider how

robust different decisions or

options may be under a wide range
of possible futures.” –
SEDAC/CIESIN

http://sedac.ciesin.columbia.edu/ddc/ar5_scenario_process/i MANILA OBSERVATORY

ndex.html
What are we adapting to?

http://www.ipcc.ch/publications_and_data/ar4/wg1/en/figure-ts- MANILA OBSERVATORY

32.html
 Potential Range of Temperature Change

12

10

8
No. of Models

0
1 2 3 4 5 6

Temperature Change
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Projected changes in Rainfall (2050s) Agricultural Lands

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Projected changes in Rainfall (2050s) River Basins

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How do we assess local
climate hazards?

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 Modified Coronas Atlas (Kintanar, 1984)
Understanding the
local climate to

)
on an
on
E m ih
identify the hazards

so
(N Am
• Describing hazards (extreme
temperature and rainfall, Tropical
Cyclones
drought, flooding, typhoons,
gat on)
storm surge, etc.) in the local aba nso
H o
context m
W
(S ENSO
• Establish a baseline
(reference), identify
thresholds before looking at
I
changes, trends, variability T
• How these climate systems C
Other large- Z
affect the present climate scale systems
changes in the future MANILA OBSERVATORY
http://kidlat.pagasa.dost.gov.ph/cab/climate_change/images/ClimateMap.JPG
 Case Study:
Davao Oriental

Each box is 25 km x 25 km
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Modified Coronas Atlas 600

Monthly Total Rainfall (mm/month)

500

(Kintanar, 1984) 400

300
200

100

0
0 2 4 6 8 10 12
Month

Type1 Type2 Type3 Type4

Type I climate (two pronounced season with

dry period from November to April and wet
period from May to October)

Type II climate (no dry season with a very
pronounced maximum rainfall during the
months of November–December);

Type III climate (seasons not very pronounced
with a relatively dry period from November to
Davao
April, as in Type I);
Oriental
Type IV climate with rainfall more or less evenly
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distributed along the year
http://kidlat.pagasa.dost.gov.ph/cab/climate_change/images/ClimateMap.JPG
 Mati City
28 350
300

Total Rainfall (mm)

Temperature (°C)
27 250
200
26
150

25 100
50
24 0
Jan
Feb

May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct

Dec
Apr
Mar

Nov
Month
• Hot months from April to May
• Cool months from December to January
• No distinct dry season (rainfall throughout the year)
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Data source: APHRODITE (Yatagai et al. 2012; http://www.chikyu.ac.jp/precip)
 Tropical cyclones in Mindanao may not be as
frequent, compared to Luzon and Visayas …

most rainfall
not associated
with TC..

But impacts of tropical cyclones can be devastating

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Slide adapted from G. Narisma; Figure (right) from Figure 9 of Cinco et al., 2016
 Typhoon PABLO (BOPHA)
25 Nov – 9 Dec 2012

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Photos courtesy of G. Lorenzo
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 Decadal Total Number of TCs affecting
Davao Oriental (1971 – 2015)
• Many TCs in
16
1990s but
14
Number of Tropical Cyclones

mostly
12 Tropical
10 Depression
8 • Strong TCs in
6
the 1980s
and after
4
2010
2
• How will TCs
0 change in the
1971-1980 1981-1990 1991-2000 2001-2010 2011-2015
future?
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5 years only
Generating local climate projections
Observation data Multi-Global Climate Model
Output, RCP scenario

Downscale using
Regional Climate Model
(e.g. 25 km resolution)

Evaluate model output for baseline climate (1971-2000);

Apply bias correction (if necessary)

Historical / Baseline (1971-2000)

Near Future (2011-2040)
Mid Future (2036-2065)

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 Total Rainfall (mm) Temperature (°C)

24
24.5
25
25.5
26
26.5
27
27.5
28
28.5
29

0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
Jan-86 Jan-86
May-86 May-86
Sep-86 Sep-86
Jan-87 Jan-87
May-87 May-87
Sep-87 Sep-87

the observed.
Jan-88 Jan-88
May-88 May-88
Sep-88 Sep-88
Jan-89 Jan-89
May-89 May-89
Sep-89 Sep-89
Jan-90 Jan-90
May-90 May-90
Sep-90 Sep-90

Jan-91
Jan-91

May-91
May-91
Sep-91
Sep-91
Jan-92
Jan-92
May-92
May-92
Sep-92
Sep-92
Jan-93
Jan-93
May-93
May-93
Sep-93
Sep-93
Jan-94

Bias correction can bring model values closer to

Jan-94
May-94
May-94
Sep-94
Sep-94
Rainfall : Model higher than observed

Jan-95
Jan-95
May-95
May-95
Model Validation and Bias Correction

Sep-95
Sep-95
Jan-96
Jan-96
May-96
May-96
Temperature : Model lower than observed

Sep-96
Sep-96
Jan-97
Jan-97
May-97
May-97
Sep-97
Sep-97
Jan-98
Jan-98
May-98
May-98
Sep-98
Sep-98 Jan-99
Jan-99 May-99
May-99
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Sep-99
Sep-99
Model

Jan-00
Jan-00 May-00
Observed

Corrected

May-00 Sep-00
Sep-00
Average Monthly Temperature in Mati City
29.5
29
Temperature (°C)

28.5
28
27.5
27
26.5
26
25.5 Warming
25 throughout
24.5 the year
24
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Month
Present (1971-2000) MANILA O
Near Future (2011-2040) BSERVATORY
Mid Future (2036-2065)
 Annual Temperature Change in Mati City

Uncertainty increases in the future

3.5 •  More information can help decrease uncertainty
Temperature Change (°C)

3
2.5
2
1.5 Warmer than normal
1
0.5
0
-0.5
-1
Colder than normal
-1.5
71
76
81
86
91
96
01
06
11
16
21
26
31
36
41
46
51
56
61
19
19
19
19
19
19
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
Near Future Mid Future
1.19 + 0.26 oC 1.85 + 0.23oC
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 Change in Extreme Temperature
Shifted Mean

ate
m
l i al”
Nor m c
r m
a l cli m e o r
mate ar ew N
W N
“
Probability of occurrence

More
Less hot
cold weather
Less weather More
extreme extreme
cold hot
weather weather

18 20 26 28 35 37
Warmer Temperature
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Adapted form: SREX-SPM_Fig3.jpg
 Change in Extreme Temperature
Increased Variability

Nor m
a l cli
mate
Probability of occurrence

More
hot
More weather
cold l”
a
More weather o rm
extreme N
ew More
cold “N
extreme
weather hot
weather

18 20 26 28 35 37
Colder Warmer
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Adapted form: SREX-SPM_Fig3.jpg
 Temperature Change in Mati City
0.9
Warmer
0.8
0.7
Normal
0.6 climate
Probability

0.5
0.4
0.3
0.2
Fewer
0.1 cold days More hot days

0
23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33
Temperature(°C)

Present (1971-2000) Near Future (2011-2040) Mid Future (2036-2065)

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30-Year Average Annual Temperature

More
Warmer warming in
along the the southern
coastal part
areas

PRESENT (1971-2000) CHANGE IN NEAR FUTURE CHANGE IN MID FUTURE

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 Average Monthly Rainfall in Mati City
300
Monthly Total Rainfall (mm)

250

200
More rainfall
150

100

50

0
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
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 Annual Rainfall Change in Mati City
wet years
140
120 Wetter than normal 21 17
100
Rainfall Change (%)

80
60
40
20
0
-20
-40
-60 Drier than normal 9 13
-80 dry years
71

76

81

86

91

96

01

06

11

16

21

26

31

36

41

46

51

56

61
19

19

19

19

19

19

20

20

20

20

20

20

20

20

20

20

20

20

20
Near Future Mid Future

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 Daily Rainfall Distribution in Mati City
10000
Present (1971-2000)
5948
4879 5883 5881 Near Future (2011-2040)
4785 4875
Mid Future (2036-2065)
1000
Number of Days

•  Typically rain < 20 mm

•  Possible days with
100 168 extreme rainfall
151
134 (more than 100 mm)
in the future

10 8
Maximum

4 4 4 Average of 4 models
Light to
1 No rain Moderate Minimum
<1 1 - 30 31 - 100 101 - 200 >200
No rain Light to Heavy Extreme
Moderate Daily rainfall (mm)
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 30-Year Average Seasonal Rainfall (Present)

Relatively
wetter in DJF

Mar-Apr-May Jun-Jul-Aug Sep-Oct-Nov Dec-Jan-Feb

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Change in Seasonal Rainfall (Near Future)

Drier
except in
Caraga
Mar-Apr-May Jun-Jul-Aug Sep-Oct-Nov Dec-Jan-Feb

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Change in Seasonal Rainfall (Mid Future)

More drier
areas,
especially
in DJF
Mar-Apr-May Jun-Jul-Aug Sep-Oct-Nov Dec-Jan-Feb

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 MANILA OBSERVATORY
Slide courtesy of Thelma Cinco (PAGASA)
 The Southeast Asia Regional Climate Downscaling
(SEACLID) / CORDEX Southeast Asia Project

2nd SEACLID/CORDEX Southeast Asia Manuscript Writing Workshop

RU-CORE, Bangkok, Thailand, 3-10 July 2017

Motivation: To have a platform

for regional collaboration on
Website: http://www.ukm.my/seaclid-cordex climate research for SEA and
• 14 countries build the capacity of the region
• 20 institutions MANILA OBSERVATORY
in regional climate science
MANILA OBSERVATORY
Marami pong salamat!

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