NAME: NAIBEI JAN KIPSANG

REG NO. E032-01-1189/2017

TASK: ASSIGNMENT 1
UNIT: ENVIRONMENTAL RESOURCE MANAGEMENT
There has been a notable change in water levels of Lake Naivasha, The Ministry of
Environment has requested you to model the different indicators and projected outcomes,
outline how you will use GIS and RS to arrive at your outcome (30 Marks)

1. Precipitation and Evaporation: Precipitation (rainfall) that usually pours over

the lake, the runoff that results from the precipitation, and evaporation of water
from the lake surface account for, the remaining 15% of the water supply.
 Outcome-During dry season, surface lake evaporation can exceed inputs
of water to the lake due to precipitation and surface runoff, causing a net
negative local water supply over a given period of time.
 Approach-GIS is used to determine actual evapotranspiration,
Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) map is generated using
ARCGIS. For the different years, average NDVI values and corresponding
Kc values are obtained. Reference evapotranspiration (Eto) is obtained by
Penman–Monteith model. Therefore these can be used to model rate of
evaporation over time.
2. Lake siltation; The siltation of the lake is as a result of the following causes,
sediment inflow from the main rivers, flash floods in the semi-arid area with less
vegetation cover around the lake, and atmospheric deposition.
 Outcome-In some areas south of the lake, wind erosion is a serious
problem, due to overgrazing and improper land management, with part of
the wind-blown material being deposited in the lake this causes silt
sediments deposited around leading to water submergence. Also with the
frequent flooding in the region in the rain season has led to increase in
water level due to discharge of sediments to the lake by rivers flowing into
the lake.
  Approach-Bathymetric surveys are carried out to constantly measure
point depths along a trolled route to create a topographical map of the lake
bed. Different surveys can then be compared spatially to calculate a
change in lake bed levels.
3. Displacement of both humans and wildlife; Observation from satellites shows
that Lake Naivasha, been rising since 2018, and for the past two years, the levels
have superseded the 2012-2013 records to levels not seen in the past 50 years.
 Outcome-This has led to increase in its spatial coverage hence
submerging human and wildlife habitats around the lake. Also the
agricultural sector around the lake has been affected as a result of frequent
flooding around the lake.
 Approach- change detection of classified map of the different land use
land cover classes around the lake is done so as to determine the level of
the lake ter volume that usually encroaches into the human and wildlife
habitat.

4. Increase in irrigation because of floriculture and horticulture; The irrigation

water abstractions are attributed almost exclusively to the floricultural industry,
whereas the nutrient (likely the pesticide load) to the lake is attributed to the upper
catchment population practicing rain-fed agriculture.
 Outcome- large volume of water is being pumped away out of the lake to
these farms. This has therefore led to decrease in water levels. Studies
have shown that 80% of the water level reduction is associated with the
use of water for irrigating horticultural farms. It is estimated that around 3
to 5 x 106 m3 of water is abstracted every month, though this may be
more because the water used is not metered.
 Approach-The irrigation water management system makes use of
ArcView GIS and the Avenue programming language for customization of
GIS applications and design of new tools for modeling irrigation water
requirements and identifying of areas with water deficit. Irrigation
requirements can be estimated taking into account different scenarios of
 cropping pattern, climatic conditions (from dry to wet year), and applied
irrigation method, volume of water available for irrigation and hydraulic
characteristics of the water distribution system.
5. Change in fish habitats; Due to reduction in water levels, fish are more likely to
cluster in deeper pockets, hiding under structures like rocks and roots.
 Outcome-When water levels are extremely low, fishers should seek out
deep, isolated pockets with lots of shade and shelter. This is where most
fish particularly stay. During periods of rising water levels, most fish will
be further dispersed, congregating in shallower areas near grass and other
forms of structural shelter. As water levels rise, fish consistently move
closer to the lake edge.
 Approach-GIS is an important tool for analysing these multidimensional
spatial patterns and evaluating the impacts on reservoir fisheries.
Moreover, classifying and mapping of suitable habitats and potential
fishing grounds; monitoring water quality, pollution, fish movement,
water level fluctuations; mapping fish distribution and water parameters;
and change detection and monitoring in shorelines.
6. Water quality analysis (trophic state)- The trophic state oscillates between
eutrophic and hyper eutrophic, this has been found to be more eutrophic than
recorded in previous studies indicating a progressive deterioration of the lake’s
water quality.
 Outcome- there has been reduction in the fish population in the lake also
there has been a fast spread of water hyacinth in the lake due to change in
the quality of water.
 Approach- Inferences from graphical representation of the deviations of
total phosphorus and secchi-depth from chlorophyll-a trophic state indices
revealed that the lake is predominantly phosphorus limited. Furthermore,
the turbidity in the northern part of the lake is dominated by suspended
sediment and dissolved colored material.
7. Reduction in surrounding ecosystem; Water lilies and papyrus almost
disappeared in the 1980s which was thought to have been caused by the
 introduction of crayfish and Coypus. The papyrus is considered the most
important plant of Lake Naivasha, occurring in the shallow water of the lake edge,
and on land where the sub-surface soil was saturated. It almost completely
surrounds the lake, forms floating islands in the lake and can be found up to 5 km
up the Malewa River. It acts as an efficient silt and nutrient filter, and is capable
of recycling excess nutrients. It also forms an important habitat for fish (where
submerged or floating) and wildlife (e.g., birds, hippos, buffalo) which use it as
safe refuge and feeding area.
 Outcome- The quantity of papyrus in the lake has varied tremendously as
a consequence of fluctuating water levels, fires and, in some cases, human
encroachment.
 Approach-GIS and remote sensing has been used to map the current
riparian habitat and change detection has been done to previous images
thus showing the extent of decline in wetlands. Also analysis of NDVI of
different images of the surrounding taken at different epochs has been
used to determine the rate of change of vegetation features around the
lake.
8. Increase in population around the lake; the population has increased
tremendously around the lake resulting to unplanned settlements that lack basic
amenities such as water, sanitation and waste disposal programs.
 Outcome-The lack of water in these settlements forces residents to go to
the lakeshore for domestic water, laundry and livestock watering. As a
result, the area is being denuded of trees for firewood and over-grazed by
livestock, thereby promoting erosion. World Health Organization (WHO)
recommends 1000 m³ of water available per capita with a prediction that
due to population growth and the current levels of degradation and
environmental change water availability in Naivasha could drop from 647
m³ to 235 m³ per capita.
 Approach -GIS correlation analysis have to be carried out based on
population and consumption of water. Maps are then generated to show
consumption rate and population distribution.
9. Rapid developments and encroachment; resulted to many speculations on the
complex relationships between resources and resource users, and subsequent
disputes.
 Outcome-Conservationists argued that commercial farms are ruthlessly
emptying the lake, whereas commercial growers counter that the lake
levels were much lower in the 1950s, before agricultural activities began.
Although the lake is intimately linked to a very productive aquifer, the
inter-relationships are complex.
 Approach-Use of satellite data to assess the rate of change of
anthropogenic activities leads to improved mapping and quantification of
the land cover units. The implication of land use trends and practices
mapped from Landsat and SPOT data is made apparent when SRTM DEM
data and field observation data is integrated.