ACTIVITY: GUESS THE WORD!

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P_ _BA_IL_ _Y

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PROBABILITY

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 ACTIVITY: GUESS THE WORD!
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1.

N_ _ M_ L C_R_ E

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NORMAL CURVE

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 ACTIVITY: GUESS THE WORD!
3.
1.

SY_M_TR_C

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SYMMETRIC

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 ACTIVITY: GUESS THE WORD!
1.

SL_P_

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SLOPE

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 ACTIVITY: GUESS THE WORD!
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5.

S_ _TT_R D_AG_AM

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SCATTER DIAGRAM

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 Probability, Normal
Lesson 3.3 Distribution, Linear
Regression, and
Correlation

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 Learning Outcomes
General Objective:
➢ At the end of the lesson, the students are expected to
analyse and solve problems involving Probability, Normal
Distribution, Linear Regression, and Correlation with 80%
accuracy.

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 Learning Outcomes
Specific Objectives:
➢ Compare and contrast conditional probability from
unconditional probability.
➢ Solve problems involving conditional and unconditional
probability.
➢ Discuss the characteristics of normal distribution.
➢ Enumerate the steps in solving the normal distribution
problem.
➢ Solve problems in normal distribution.

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 Learning Outcomes
Specific Objectives:
➢ Explain the concept of linear regression.
➢ Discuss the concept of simple linear regression analysis.
➢ Enumerate the assumptions on linear regression
analysis.
➢ Solve problems involving linear regression.
➢ Discuss the concept of correlation analysis.
➢ Solve problems involving correlation analysis.

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Probability
Probability
➢ the chance or likelihood of an event to happen
➢ can be expressed as proportions from 0 to 1 or
percentages from 0% to 100%
➢ A probability of 0 indicates that the event doesn’t
have the chance to occur
➢ A probability of 1 indicates that the event will certainly
happen.

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Unconditional Probability
➢ P(characteristics) = number of persons with
characteristics/N is called unconditional since the
denominator is the N giving each child an
equal chance to be selected.

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Unconditional Probability
Example 1: Data below show the
number of gadget addictiveness among
children 5- 10 years of age who are
seeking medical care.
1.What is the probability of
selecting a boy?
2560
P(selecting a boy)= 5290
= 0.484 or 48.4%

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Unconditional Probability
Example 1: Data below show the
number of gadget addictiveness among
children 5- 10 years of age who are
seeking medical care.

2. What is the probability of

selecting a 7 years old?
913
P(7 yrs.old) = 5290
= 0.173 or 17.3%

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Unconditional Probability
Example 1: Data below show the number of
gadget addictiveness among children 5- 10
years of age who are seeking medical care.

Try it Out!
1.What is the probability of selecting
a girl?
2730
P(girl) = 5290
=0.516 or 51.6%

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Conditional Probability
➢ A conditional probability is the probability of an event
occurring, given that another event has already
occurred. The conditional probability of event B
occurring, given that event A has occurred, is denoted
by and is read as “probability of B, given A.”

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Conditional Probability
Example 2

1.What is the probability of

selecting an Ace given that it is a
red card?
2
P(AceIRed) = 26
1
=13

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Conditional Probability
Example 2

2. What is the probability of

selecting a heart given that it is
black card?
0
P(heart I black) = 26
= 0

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Conditional Probability
Example 2

Try it Out!
1.What is the probability of
selecting a face card given that it
is a red card?
6
P(faceIRed) =
26
3
=13

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Normal Distribution
➢ is a probability distribution that is symmetric
about the mean
➢ normal distribution will appear as a bell curve.

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Normal Distribution

Characteristics of a Normal Distribution

➢ Symmetric
➢ Unimodal
➢ Asymptotic
➢ Equal values

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Normal Distribution
Steps in solving normal distribution problem:
1. Draw a picture of the normal distribution.
2. Translate the problem into one of the following: PX<a, PX>b, or
P(a<X<b). Shade in the area on the picture.
3. Standardize a (and/or b) to a z-score using the z-formula.

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Normal Distribution
Steps in solving normal distribution problem:
4.Look up the z-score on the Z-table and find its corresponding
probability.
a) Find the row of the table corresponding to the leading digit (ones
digit) and first digit after the decimal point (the tenths digit).
b) Find the column corresponding to the second digit after the
decimal point (the hundredths digit).
c) Intersect the row and column from steps (a) and (b).

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Normal Distribution
Steps in solving normal distribution problem:
• If we need a “less-than” probability – that is, PX<a – then, we’re
done.
• If we want “a greater-than” probability- that is, p(X>b) – take one
minus the result from step 4.
• If we need a “between-two-values” probability – that is, PX<a<b-
do steps 1-4 for b (the larger of the two values) and again for a
(the smaller of the two values), and subtract the results

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Normal Distribution
Example:
You join in a crab catching contest. The sizes of the crabs are
normally distributed with a mean of 16 cm and a standard
deviation of 4. What is the chance of catching crabs that are
less than 8 cm?

Given:
µ=16
ó= 4
x=8

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Normal Distribution
Solution:
1. Draw a picture of the normal distribution.

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Normal Distribution
Solution:
2.Locate the problem in the graph.

3.Translate problem into probability notation.

P(x < 8)

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Normal Distribution
Solution:
4.Change the x value into z score.
For x=8:
𝑥−µ
z-score= ó
8−16
= 4
−8
= 4
= -2

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Normal Distribution
Solution:
5. Identify the z values using the z table.
When z=-2, the table value is 0.4772.
6. Calculate probabilities
P(z >-2)
It is 0.5, which is the area of the region lower
than the mean less 0.4772 gives 0.0228.

Thus, the probability of getting crabs smaller than 8 cm

is 2.28%.

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Normal Distribution
The Normal Curve
➢ area under the normal
distribution curve represents
probability and the total area
under the curve sums to one
➢ Since the curve is perfectly
symmetrical, the value of z may
be taken as positive (+) or
negative (-), but the
corresponding area is always
taken as positive

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Normal Distribution
Example : Find the area between z=0 and z= +1.

Solution:
From the table, we locate z=1.
and get the corresponding
area, which is equal to
0 .8413-.5=0.3413.

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Normal Distribution
Try it Out!
• Find the area below z=-1.

Solution:
To get the area below z=-1
means getting the area to be
the left of z =-1. The area below
z=-1 is 0.1587.

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Correlation
➢ a statistical method used to determine whether a
relationship between variables exists. A variable
here is a characteristic of the population being
observed or measured.

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Scatter Diagram

A Scatter diagram is a useful tool for checking the

assumptions in a regression analysis. It can be viewed
during an initial screening run of the analysis or after the
analysis.

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Regression Analysis
➢ a statistical method used to describe the nature of the
relationship between variables, that is, either positive or
negative, linear or nonlinear
➢ A positive relationship exists when either variable increases
at the same time or both decrease at the same time. On the
contrary, in a negative relationship, as one variable increases,
the other variable decreases or vice versa.

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Pearson – Product Moment Correlation
➢ is the most widely used in statistics to measure the degree of
the relationship between the linear related variables.
➢ founded by Karl Pearson
➢ The Pearson r correlation would require both variables to be
normally distributed
➢ is a measure of the linear strength of the association between
two variables
➢ Value of the correlation coefficient varies between +1 and -1

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Pearson – Product Moment Correlation
The correlation coefficient is defined as the covariance divided
by the standard deviations of the variables. The following
formula is used to calculate the Pearson r correlation:

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Pearson – Product Moment Correlation

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Pearson – Product Moment Correlation
The following summarizes the correlation coefficient and strength of
relationships:
0 → No correlation, no relationship
±0.01 to ±0.20 → Very low correlation, almost negligible
±0.21 to ±0.40 → Slight correlation, definite but small relationship
±0.41 to ±0.70 → Moderate correlation, substantial relationship
±0.71 to ±0.90 → High correlation, marked relationship
±0.91 to ±0.99 → Very high correlation, very
dependable relationship
±1.00 → Perfect correlation, perfect relationship

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Correlation and Regression Analysis

Steps in solving for Correlation Coefficient and Regression Analysis

Step 1: Plot the data on a scatter diagram
Step 2: Compute the coefficient of correlation r.
Step 3: Interpret the result

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Correlation and Regression Analysis
Example 1:
The owner of a chain of fruit shake stores would like to study the
correlation between atmospheric temperature and sales during the
summer season. A random sample of 12 days is selected with the results
given as follows:

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Correlation and Regression Analysis
Solution:
Step 1: Plot the data on a scatter diagram

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Correlation and Regression Analysis
Step 2: Compute the coefficient of correlation r.

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Correlation and Regression Analysis
Step 2:

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Correlation and Regression Analysis
Step 3: Interpret the result

The coefficient of correlation, r=0.93, between the

atmospheric temperature and total sales indicates a very
high positive correlation (very dependable relationship).
That is, an increase in atmospheric temperature is highly
associated with the increase in total sales of fruit shake.

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Simple Linear Regression Analysis
➢ is a simple statistical tool used to model the dependence of a
variable on one (or more) explanatory variables.
➢ This functional relationship may then be formally stated as an
equation, with associated statistical values that describe how
well this equation fits the data.
➢ simple linear regression fits a straight line through the set of n
points in such a way that makes the sum of squared residuals of
the model as small as possible.
➢ This method gives what is generally known as the “best-fitting”
line.

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Simple Linear Regression Analysis

General Equation for Simple Linear Regression

𝑦ො = 𝑏1 𝑥 + 𝑏0

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Simple Linear Regression Analysis
Solving for Linear Regression Equation

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Simple Linear Regression Analysis
Assumptions on Linear Regression Analysis

➢ The values of the independent variable X may be “fixed” that is,

the researcher may select the values of X in advance, or X could
be a random variable.
➢ The values of X are measured without error.
➢ The variances of the subpopulations of the dependent variable,
given different values of the independent variable, are equal. This
is a condition known as homoscedasticity.

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Simple Linear Regression Analysis
Assumptions on Linear Regression Analysis

➢ The subpopulation of dependent variable Y, given different

values of the independent variable X, is normally distributed.
➢ The means of the subpopulation of Y all lie on the same straight
line. This is called the assumption of linearity.

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Simple Linear Regression Analysis
Steps in Solving Simple Linear Regression
Step 1: Obtain the sum of 𝑥, 𝑦, 𝑥 2 , 𝑦 2 𝑎𝑛𝑑 𝑥𝑦
Step 2: Compute for the slope of the simple linear regression.
Step 3: Compute for the mean value of 𝑥 𝑎𝑛𝑑 𝑦.
Step 4: Compute for the intercept of the simple linear
regression.
Step 5: Substitute the slope and intercept in the general
simple linear regression equation.
Step 6: Graph the least square regression line.

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Simple Linear Regression Analysis
Example:
Determine the regression equation, plot the regression line,
and interpret it.

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Simple Linear Regression Analysis
Step 1: Obtain the sum of 𝑥, 𝑦, 𝑥 2 , 𝑦 2 𝑎𝑛𝑑 𝑥𝑦

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Simple Linear Regression Analysis
Step 2: Compute for the slope of the simple linear
regression..

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Simple Linear Regression Analysis
Step 3: Compute for the mean value of 𝑥 𝑎𝑛𝑑 𝑦.

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Simple Linear Regression Analysis
Step 4: Compute for the intercept of the simple
linear regression.

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Simple Linear Regression Analysis
Step 5: Substitute the slope and intercept in the general
simple linear regression equation.

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Simple Linear Regression Analysis
Step 6: Graph the least square regression line.

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Simple Linear Regression Analysis
❖ Thus, the regression equation is y=3.749x-145.2782.
The 𝑏1 of 3.7496 indicates that for each other additional
temperature in Fahrenheit, sales are expected to increase by
3.7496 units. The 𝑏0 value of -145.2782 indicates that the intercept
with the y-axis is below the origin. A concrete interpretation is
that if the temperature in Fahrenheit is zero, a negative 145.2782
units would be sold.

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Application
1.In a standard deck of card, what is the probability of
getting an ace?

P(ace)=4/52
=1/13
2.In a standard deck of cards, what is the probability
that it is a four given that is a red card?

P(four I red) = 2/26

= 1/13

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Application
3.Find the area between z=-0.70 and z=1.25.
0.2580+.3944 = 0.6524.
4.True or False. If the correlation coefficient is 0, it shows no
correlation or relationship.
True
5. True or False. If the correlation coefficient is -0.75, it shows a
strong correlation.
True

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Generalization

✓ What are your takeaways in today’s

discussion?

✓ What are some daily activities that you can

apply the lesson that you have learned today?

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Learning Tasks/Activities
Perform as indicated.
The table below shows the results of a study in which researchers examined
a child’s IQ and the presence of a specific gene in the child.
Gene present Gene not present Total
High IQ 33 19 52
Normal IQ 39 11 50
Total 72 30 102

1. Find the probability that the child has a normal IQ.

2. Find the probability that a child has the gene.
3. Find the probability that a child has a normal IQ and has the gene.
4. Find the probability that a child has a high IQ, given that the child has the
gene.

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Learning Tasks/Activities
B. If scores are normally distributed with a mean of 25 and a
standard deviation of 7.5, what percent of the scores is:
1. Greater than 40
2. Lower than 40
3. Between 28 and 42

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