Module 1

Download as docx, pdf, or txt
Download as docx, pdf, or txt
You are on page 1of 20

MODULE ONE: PROBABILITY

INTRODUCTION
In this module you will look at the concept of Probability with specific focus on:
 Language of Probability
 Expressions of Probability
 Probability scale
 Practical and Theoretical Probability
 Compound events

OVERVIEW
In this topic, you will work with complex projects in familiar and unfamiliar contexts

SPECIFIC OBJECTIVES
At the end of this module you will be able to:
 Define Probability
 Work with situations involving Probability.
 Express Probability in different forms.
 Recognize the difference between terms used in Probability.
 Draw and analyze Contingency/Two-way tables and Tree diagrams.

TERMINOLOGY
Probability Numerical measure of the likelihood or chance that an event will happen
or not happen.
Event An activity.
Outcome The result of a trial.
Trial The act of letting an event happen or not happen e.g. action of tossing a
coin.
Chance A possibility of something happening.
Possible Outcome The chance that the event will happen.
Impossible Outcome No chance of the event happening.
Certain Something is definitely going to happen.
Likely Chance of something happening is greater than the chance of it not
happening.
Unlikely Chance of something happening is less than the chance of it not
happening.
Even(fifty-fifty) Chance of something happening or not happening is the same.
Prediction Statement describing the chance of an outcome to happen based on given
information.
Tree diagram A Diagram using branches to display all the possible outcomes of the
events.
Two-way table Also known as Contingency table, represents all possible outcomes of two
trials taking place together.
Experiment Series of trials.

1
CONTENT

You will study this module through the following units

Unit 1 Experimental and Theoretical probability


Unit 2 Probability of Compound events

UNIT 1: EXPERIMENTAL AND THEORETICAL PROBABILITY

INTRODUCTION

In this unit you will look at

 the concept of expressions of Probability,


 working with the probability scale and
 calculating probability using theoretical and experimental probability.

LEARNING OUTCOME

At the end of this Unit, you should be able to:


 Express probability as numbers, fractions, decimals and words.
 Interpret and use the probability scale to determine the probability of simple events
(dice/coin, national lotteries, insurance risk assessment, weather predictions, etc.).
 Calculate Probability using theoretical/experimental probability.

LESSON NOTES

 The Probability of an event happening is expressed as a number. It can be written as:


 A fraction
 A decimal fraction
 A percentage
6 2
 Probability must always be written in its simplest form e.g. =
18 6
 The Probability of events can be expressed using a Probability scale.
 The scale ranges from 0% - 100% OR 0-1.
 0 stands for Probability of an event that certainly will not happen.
 1 OR 100% stands for Probability of an event that will certainly happen.

2
The following is a visual representation of the Probability scale:

Example 1

State the Probability of the following events using the Probability scale:

1. Flipping a coin to land on tails. Proposed solution 1


2. The sun setting in the evening. 1. Even or 50/50
3. Pigs flying. chance.
2. Certain
3. Impossible

Theoretical Probability

 Uses known known facts about the Probability or the situation.


 No experiments are conducted, but knowledge about the situation is gained by using logical
reasoning or known formula.
 Formula that is used to calculate Probability of an event happening:
number of favourable outcomes
Theoretical Probability ¿
number of possible outcomes
Example 2:

A jar contains 7 red balls and Proposed Solution


12 blue balls. Determine the
probability of picking a red
ball. 7
P(red ball) ¿
19

3
EXPERIMENTAL PROBABILITY

Found by repeating the event many times (trial) and then calculating the Probability based on the
outcomes of these trials.

Example 3:

Proposed Solution
A dice is thrown and the
outcome is noted. A dice has 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6 on it.
Determine the Probability of
throwing a: 1
1. P(Three)¿
1. Three 6
2. Odd number 3 1
3. Even number 2. P (Odd number) = =
6 2
3 1
3. P (Even number) = =
6 2

Example 4:

A standard deck of cards is made up of 13 spades, 13 hearts,13 diamonds and 13 clubs as


indicated below.
1. What is the Probability that Poppy will pick up a Queen of Spades?”
2. Nikiwe decides to pick a card from the deck, while Poppy is holding the Queen of Spades in
her hand. What is the Probability, as a decimal that Nikiwe will pick a Queen from the deck?

Solution:

4
1. P (Queen Spades)
1
¿
52

3
2. P(Queen) ¿
51
= 0 , 06

Activity 1.1.1 Group Discussion (30 Minutes)

Instructions
 Participants should form groups of 4 – 5
 Refer to the questions provided
 These questions are intended to advance skills that can be used in the classroom and possible ways
in which this section can be taught
 Task 1: Answer all the questions
 Report Back and Discussion
 Resources: Pen and Calculator

Answer the following questions:

1.1. Lihle's favourite band is performing at an open-air arena. It is predicted that it is most unlikely that it
will rain on the night of the performance. Choose ONE of the values below that best describes this
probability: (2)
1 3
1 , 0 0 ,0 40 % 0 , 8 20 %
2 5

1.2. A nurse is carrying a rectangular medicine box. The medicine box contains FOUR identical smaller boxes.
EACH small box contains four different types of pills in cylindrical containers which are labelled A, B, K
and U, as shown below.

Determine (as a Percentage) the probability of randomly selecting a type U container from the medicine
box. (3)

1.3. Peter is in the front of a queue to buy a chocolate for his mother and randomly

5
chooses a chocolate.
There are 50 chocolates left that are wrapped as follows:
• 17 silver
• 20 gold
• 13 red
Determine the probability that Peter will choose a chocolate wrapped in:
1.3.1 Red foil (2)
1.3.2 Green foil (2)

1.4. A company installed computers at a computer centre in October 2019. The manager used a bank
account to pay the employees' wages for the project. Below is a calendar for October 2019.

Use the calendar above to answer the following question.

Determine the probability of randomly selecting a workday(Monday-Friday) in October 2019 (3)


with a date that is an even number.
[12]

Activity 1.1.2 (30 Minutes)

Instructions
 Refer to the questions provided
 These questions are intended to advance skills that can be used in the classroom and possible ways
in which this section can be taught
 Task 1: Answer all the questions
 Report Back and Discussion
 Resources: Note Pad, Pen and Calculator

The TWO pie charts below show why and how people in South Africa travel.

6
1. Study the TWO pie charts above and answer the questions that follow.
a) Calculate the percentage of people whose reason for travel is sport.
b) Which mode of transport is used by most people?
c) Determine the probability (written as a fraction in its simplest form) of randomly selecting a person
whose mode of transportation is travelling by bus.

2. A group of tourists visited the Kgalagadi Transfrontier Park. The layout plan of the Twee Rivieren Camp
is given above.
This camp offers two types of accommodation:
 Camping facilities (for tents)
 Cottages

7
The visitors booked a drive activity. Determine the probability that the activity booked was NOT a night
drive.

3. Mrs Zulu owns a large national cleaning company that cleans office blocks in various cities.
The number of employees are as follows:
 11 handymen.
 272 cleaners (men and women in the ratio 1: 3).
 12 supervisors (in the same gender ratio as the cleaners).
 11 drivers.

a) Calculate the probability of randomly selecting a female cleaner as the employee of the month,
rounded off to THREE decimal places.
b) Explain why the chance of randomly selecting a male supervisor as the employee of the month is
most unlikely.

4. Human blood is classified into eight main blood groups. The SANBS is regularly appealing to eligible
people to donate blood.

TABLE 1 below shows the distribution of the eight different blood groups in the South African
population.
Table 2 shows the comptibility between the blood group of the donor and the possible recipient.

8
a) Write down the Probability of randomly selecting a South African who is clasified in the O blood
group.
b) Identify the blood group of a recipient that has a 100 % Probability of being able to receive blood
from any donor blood group.
−¿ ¿
c) Verify with a reason whether it is most likely for an O blood group recipient to be able to receive
from any donor blood group.

UNIT 2: PROBABILITY OF COMPOUND EVENTS

INTRODUCTION

 Sometimes in Probability we have more than one event taking place.


 To calculate Probability in these cases, we need to determine all the possible outcomes.
 In this unit, we use tree diagrams and two-way (contingency) tables to determine all the
other outcomes accurately.

LEARNING OUTCOME
At the end of this Unit, you should be able to:

9
 Represent compound events on a Tree diagram and on a contingency/Two-way table.
 Interpret and analyse a drawn tree diagram and a contingency/two-way table.
 Use the drawn tree diagram and a contingency/two-way table to complete a task.

LESSON NOTES
TREE DIAGRAMS

 A tree diagram is shaped like a tree.


 It has branches that represents the possible outcomes.
 A tree diagram is a visual way of expressing the outcomes, particularly when there are more
than two events.

Example 1
a) Draw a tree diagram to represent the possible outcomes of tossing a coin two times.
b) State the number of possible outcomes in the tree diagram.
c) Determine the probability of getting the following:
I. 1 heads a 1 tails in any order.
II. 2 heads.

Proposed Solution
a)
b) TT; TH; HT; HH = 4 outcomes
c)
2 1
I. P(H, T in any order)¿ =
4 2
1
II. P(2 Heads)¿
4

Example 2

AK Bazaar soccer team still have two matches to play before they qualify to take part in the Premier
Soccer league. There are three possible outcomes for each match: win (W), lose (L) or draw (D). A
tree diagram is drawn to work out the possible outcomes for the two matches.

Look at the tree diagram and answer the questions below:

10
a) Complete the tree diagram above to show all the possible outcomes of the two matches.
b) Explain the meaning of the outcomes: WD and DW.
c) What is the Probability of winning both matches?
d) What is the Probability of winning only one match?
e) What is the Probability of drawing at least one of the matches?

Proposed Solution

a).
b) WD: Win 1st match and Draw
second match.
DW: Draw 1st match and win 2nd
match.
1
c) P(WW)=
9
4
d) P(W)¿
9
5
e) P(D) and P(DD)¿
9

TWO-WAY TABLES (CONTINGENCY TABLES)

 A two-way table is also called a contingency table.


 A two-way table that shows all the possible outcomes of two trials taking place together.
 Has the outcomes of one event across a row in a table and the other outcomes are found
running down a column.

Example 3

11
Siya spins two spinners at the same time. Spinner 1 has divisions A,B,C and D. Spinner 2 is labelled
1,2, and 3. Siya draws up a contingency table to show the possible outcomes of his experiment

Spinner1 A B C D
Spinner 2
1 A1 B1 C1 D1
2 A2 B2 C2 D2
3 A3 B3 C3 D3

a) Write down the number of outcomes in this experiment.


b) What is the probability of scoring a 2 and any letter?
c) What is the Probability of scoring a D and a 1?

Proposed Solution

a. There are 12 outcomes.


b. P(2 and any letter)
4 1
¿ =
12 3
1
c. P(D and a 1)¿
12

Example 4

The table below shows the results of a survey conducted to determine how learners of Bophelong
Secondary get to their school on Monday and Friday.

Mode Cycle Car Taxi Walk Total


Day

12
Monday 12 42 20 100
Friday 8 50 122
Total 50 92 60

a) Complete the table above by filling in the missing values.


b) Determine the probability that a learner, taken at random:
I. Cycled to school.
II. Did not walk to school Friday.

Solutions Example 4

a).
Mode Cycle Car Taxi Walk Total
Day

c) P(Did not walk)


Monday 12 26 42 20 100
Friday 8 24 50 40 122

P(Cycling)
Total 20 50 92 60 222

b)
Notes--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
-

Activity 1.2.1 Group Discussion (30 Minutes)

Instructions
 Participants should form groups of 4 – 5
 Refer to the questions provided

13
 These questions are intended to advance skills that can be used in the classroom and possible
ways in which this section can be taught
 Task 1: Answer all the questions
 Report Back and Discussion
 Resources: Pen and Calculator
1. Thabo cannot decide what to wear to a party. He has three pairs of pants- a grey pair, a black
pair and a blue pair of jeans. He puts his pants on his bed, closes his eyes and chooses a pair
of pants to wear. He has four shirts-a white shirt, red shirt , black shirt and green shirt. He
pulls a shirt from his drawer without looking.
1.1. Complete the two-way table below to show the different possible combinations of shirts
and pants that Thabo has to choose from and answer the questions that follow. (4)

Shirts White shirt Red shirt(RS) Black shirt(BS) Green


(WS) shirt(GS)
Pants
Grey pants(G)
Black pants (B)
Blue jeans (BJ) BJ;RS

1.1.1. How many compound outcomes are there in total? (2)


1.1.2. What is the probability that Thabo will be wearing his Green shirt (3)
1.1.3. What is the probability that Thabo will NOT be wearing something black? (3)

2. At Alex High School the basic boys' uniform consists of a pair of pants and a shirt with the option
of wearing a tie. The pants may be either long or short, and the shirt may be either long-sleeved
or short-sleeved. They are allowed to wear any combination of these three items of clothing
when they are on a trip.
2.1. Complete the tree diagram below to illustrate all the possible combinations of these
three items of clothing that the boys may wear on a trip. (7)

KEYS:
CODE EXPLANATION
LP LONG PANTS
SP SHORT PANTS
LS LONG SLEEVE
SS SHORT SLEEVE
T TIE
NT NO TIE

14
2.2. When the boys are at school, they are only allowed to wear ONE of the following
combinations of the uniform:
 Long pants with long-sleeved shirt and a tie.
 Short pants with a short-sleeved shirt and no tie.
If one of the boys in the bus were randomly selected, use the completed tree diagram
above to determine the probability (in a decimal form) that he would be wearing on of
these two combinations. (2)

15
Activity 1.2.2 (30 Minutes)

Instructions
 Refer to the questions provided
 These questions are intended to advance skills that can be used in the classroom and possible ways
in which this section can be taught
 Task 1: Answer all the questions
 Report Back and Discussion
 Resources: Pen and Calculator

1. Mary wants ice cream. The ice cream shop has the tree diagrams in the window to show customers
possible combination of ice cream they are selling. Study the tree diagram below and answer the
questions that follow:

1.1.How many outcomes are there in total? (2)


1.2.How many combinations can Mary get with vanilla ice cream? (2)
1.3.How many combinations can Mary get if the ice cream shop runs out of nuts? (2)
1.4.How many combinations can she get with chocolate and strawberries? (2)

16
2. The accelerated schools infrastructure delivery initiative (ASIDI) of the Department of Education was
created to renovate schols so that they are conducive to learning.
TABLE 1 below shows a summary of the completed renovated projects per province.

PROBLEMS AT THE SCHOOL

PROVINCE INAPPROPRIAT WATER SANITATION ELECTRICAL TOTAL


E STRUCTURES NUMBER OF
PROJECTS
EC 145 271 171 202 789
FS 21 53 12 50 136
GP 0 0 14 2 16
KZN 1 206 103 58 368
LP 3 104 88 5 200
MP 5 36 38 45 124
NW 2 3 10 0 15
NC 1 5 13 2 21
WC 25 3 19 8 55
TOTAL 203 681 468 372 1724

Use the information above to answer the questions that follow.

2.1. Write down, in simplified form, the ratio of water proects to sanitation projects in Limpopo.
(3)
2.2. Determine, as a decimal, the probability of randmly selecting a renovation project that
successfully completed inappropriate structures. (3)
2.3. Determine, to the nearest percentage, the probability of randomly selecting a completed
project at a school in KZN that did NOT have electric repairs. (4)
[15]

Activity 1.2.3 (30 Minutes)

Instructions
Refer to the questions provided
 These questions are intended to advance skills that can be used in the classroom and possible ways in
which this section can be taught
 Task 1: Answer all the questions
 Report Back and Discussion
 Resources: Pen and Calculator

17
1.1. Katleho Secondary School kept records of all the learners that arrived late for school. The
Mathematical Literacy teacher noticed that the late arrival is influenced by the
occurrence of rain.

The tree diagram below was drawn to show the outcomes and probability of late arrivals
when the chance of rain is 25%.

late (L) R,L 0,05


rain (R)
not late (N) (a) 0,2

(b) 0,075
late (L)
no rain (D)
D,N 0,675
not late (N)

[Adapted fromSASAMS 2019]

Study the tree diagram and answer the questions that follow.

1.1.1 Write down the percentage of learners who arrive late if it does not rain. (2)

1.1.2 Write down the missing outcomes (a) and (b). (4)

1.1.3 Write down the probability (as a simplified common fraction) of randomly
selecting a learner who arrived late for school on a rainy day. (2)

1.1.4 If the school has 1 562 learners, determine how many learners will not be
late if the chance for rain is 25%.

(3)

18
2. All the members of the Math Lit club at Cape High are in Grades 10, 11 or 12. The number of learners
belonging to the club is given in the table below:

Grade 10 Grade 11 Grade 12 TOTAL


Girls 33 77 0 110
Boys 132 0 60 192
TOTAL 165 77 60 302

Use the table above to determine the probability of randomly choosing a member who is :
2.1. A boy in grade 12. (2)
2.2. A learner who is NOT in grade 10. (3)

3. The principals of Lebohang Secondary School and Jet Secondary School compared
their schools' 2019 matric results. The comparisons of the passes are shown in the
table below.

TABLE 4: Comparison of 2019 matric passes for the two schools


NUMBER OF LEARNERS PER TYPE PERCENTAGE
NAME OF OF MATRIC PASSES PASS
SCHOOL
Degree Diploma Certificate
Lebohang Sec 4 5 20 96,67
Jet Secondary 65 44 25 87,58

3.1. How many learners of Lebohang Secondary failed their matric examination in (4)
2019

3.2. If a learner from Jet Secondary School is chosen randomly from those who
passed, what is the probability that this learner qualified for degree studies?
(4)
Give the answer as a percentage, rounded off to ONE decimal place.

REFERENCE USED

1. Solutions for all Mathematical Literacy


2. Exam fever Mathematical Literacy
3. Previous Grade 12 NSC Question Papers and Memo
4. Curriculum and Assessment Policy System (CAPS)
5. 2020 Annual Teaching Plan (ATP)

19
SUMMARY
In this Module, Participants learned:
 The importance of Teaching of the drawing probability scale line in all the three FET grades,
explanation and interpretation of the probability scales.
 Use the Probability Scale to solve problems in simple events (dice/coin games, lotteries, etc.)
 The importance of Teaching of the drawing probability scale line in all the three FET grades,
explanation and interpretation of the probability scales.
 Use the Probability Scale to solve problems in simple events (dice/coin games, lotteries, etc.)
 Calculate Probability using Theoretical and Experimental Probability
 Working with situations involving the probability of compound events

REFLECTION

 More emphasis should be placed on probability irrespective of the fact that according to CAPS
should only cover 5% of the question paper.
 A careful reading of tables is a crucial skill in solving mathematical problems. Teachers should
give learners enough opportunities, during contact time, to practise and develop this skill.
 Teachers must incorporate large numbers in their lessons, across all topics in Mathematical
Literacy.
 It is advisable that every assessment (formal or informal) task should involve a problem on big
numbers so that learners can familiarise themselves with them.
 Teachers should encourage learners to write a glossary of the different terms’ meanings, at the
back of their books, as they complete each topic.
 Teachers should encourage candidates to use the LOLT always during the lessons. Scenarios
should be discussed and critically analysed during lessons to give learners the opportunity to
think critically and develop analytical and problem-solving skills.

END OF MODULE 1

20

You might also like