JACOB N.

SHAPIRO CURRICULUM VITAE October 2011 Assistant Professor Woodrow Wilson School Department of Politics Princeton University Robertson Hall Princeton, NJ 08544-1013 609-258-2256 [email protected] Education Ph.D., Stanford University, Department of Political Science, October 2007. Thesis: The Terrorists Challenge: Security, Efficiency, Control. Committee: Scott D. Sagan (chair), Jonathan Bendor, James Fearon, and Jeremy Weinstein. M.A., Stanford University, Economics Department, August 2007. B.A. with Honors, University of Michigan, Department of Political Science, May 1997. Journal Articles Moral Hazard, Discipline, and the Management of Terrorist Organizations. With David A. Siegel. Forthcoming World Politics (2012) 64. Can Hearts and Minds be Bought? The Economics of Counterinsurgency in Iraq. With Eli Berman and Joseph H. Felter. Journal of Political Economy (2011) 119, 766-819. Who Takes the Blame? The Strategic Impact of Collateral Damage. With Luke N. Condra. American Journal of Political Science (Forthcoming). Statistical Analysis of Endorsement Experiments: Measuring Support for Militant Groups in Pakistan. With Will Bullock and Kosuke Imai. Political Analysis (2011) 19, 363-384. Do Working Men Rebel? Insurgency and Unemployment in Afghanistan, Iraq, and the Philippines. With Eli Berman, Michael Callen, and Joseph H. Felter. Journal of Conflict Resolution (2011) 55, 496-528. Why Support Islamic Militancy? Evidence from Pakistan. With C. Christine Fair. International Security (2010) 34, 79-118. Is This Paper Dangerous? Balancing Secrecy and Openness in Counterterrorism. With David A. Siegel. Security Studies (2010) 19, 66-98.

Tortured Relations: Human Rights Abuses and Counterterrorism Cooperation. With Emilie Hafner-Burton. PS: Political Science (2010) 43, 415-419. Islam, Militancy and Politics in Pakistan: Insights from a National Sample. With C. Christine Fair and Neil Malhotra. Terrorism and Political Violence (2010) 22, 495-521. Fuzzy Set Modeling of Insurgent Networks. With Richard Avila. Military Operations Research (2008) 13, 41-50. Color-Bind: Lessons from the Failed Homeland Security Advisory System. With Dara K. Cohen. International Security (2007) 32, 121-154. Underfunding in Terrorist Organizations. With David A. Siegel. In International Studies Quarterly (2007) 51, 405-429. Book Chapters Non-state actors and failed states: Lessons from al-Qa'ida's Experiences in the Horn of Africa. With Ken Menkhaus. In Ungoverned Spaces: Alternatives to State Authority in an Era of Softened Sovereignty. Anne L. Clunan and Harold Trinkunas, eds.. Palo Alto, C.A.: Stanford University Press, 2010. Bureaucratic Terrorists: Al-Qa`ida in Iraqs Management and Finances. In Sinjar Two: al-Qa`ida in Iraqs Foreign Recruiting, Finances, and Future. Brian Fishman and Assaf Moghadam, eds. Westpoint, N.Y.: Combating Terrorism Center, 2008. The Sources of Terrorism: An Ecological and Organizational Perspective. With David D. Laitin. In Terrorism, Economic Development, and Political Openness. Philip Keefer and Norman Loayza, eds. New York: Cambridge University Press, 2008. Terrorist Organizations Vulnerabilities and Inefficiencies: A Rational Choice Perspective. In Terrorist Financing in Comparative Perspective. Harold Trinkunas and Jeanne K. Giraldo, eds. Stanford: Stanford University Press, 2007. Homeland Security: A New Strategic Paradigm? With Rudolph Darken. In Strategy in the Contemporary World. John Baylis et. al. eds. New York: Oxford University Press, 2007. Research Reports/Policy Analysis Challenging the Connection between Poverty and Support for Islamist Terrorism in Pakistan. Foreign Affairs Online (2011). With Graeme Blair, C. Christine Fair, and Neil Malhotra. Constructive COIN. Foreign Affairs Online (2010). Drivers of Change in the Pakistan Army Corps: What the Data Say. Santa Barbara, C.A.: RAND Corporation, 2009. With C. Christine Fair, Claude Berrebi, and Graeme Blair.

Strictly Confidential. Foreign Policy (2007) 161. Al-Qaidas (Mis)Adventures in the Horn of Africa. Westpoint, N.Y.: Combating Terrorism Center, 2007. With Clinton Watts et. al. Harmony and Disharmony: Exploiting al-Qaidas Organizational Vulnerabilities. Westpoint, N.Y.: Combating Terrorism Center, 2006. With Joseph Felter, et. al. An Analytical Approach to Preparedness for Homeland Security. Stanford, C.A.: Center for International Security and Cooperation, 2006. With Lynn Eden, Michael May, and Patrick Roberts. Working Papers and Manuscripts Testing the Surge: Why did Violence Decline in Iraq in 2007? With Jeffrey A. Friedman and Stephen Biddle. This paper analyzes competing explanations for the precipitous decline in violence in Iraq in 2007. Using a combination of interview data and quantitative analysis we find strong evidence that the synergistic interaction between changes in Coalition operating methods and in Iraqi politics most likely explain the change, contradicting accounts that have driven major policy debates over Afghanistan, Libya, and counterinsurgency more generally. Talking About Killing: Cell Phones, Collective Action, and Insurgent Violence in Iraq. With Nils B. Weidmann. This paper analyzes the impact of expanding cellular communications opportunities on insurgent violence. Drawing on data on Iraqs cell phone network and event data on violence, we exploit exogenous variation in the timing of tower introduction and the limited geographic range of coverage to identify the impact of mobile communications. We find that increased coverage seems to increase information flow from the population to the military, reducing insurgent violence. Insurgent Math: The Impact of Civilian Casualties on the Afghan Insurgency. Revision of NBER Working Paper 16152 With Luke N. Condra, Joseph H. Felter, and Radha K. Iyengar. This paper focuses on the reaction to civilian casualties in Afghanistan, using a series of analytic comparisons to distinguish between four prominent theories on the how civilian casualties may affect violence: revenge, recruitment, population-provided information, and the mechanical correlation between civilian casualties and insurgent group capacity. We find strong evidence of a localized revenge effect in Pashtun areas, suggesting insurgents mobilizing tools may be quite region-specific. Democratic Values and Support for Militancy: Evidence From a National Survey of Pakistan. With C. Christine Fair and Neil Malhotra. This paper uses a nationallyrepresentative survey in Pakistan (n = 6,000) to study the relationship between support for democratic values, and support for four distinct militant organizations. We employ an endorsement experiment to measure support, thereby mitigating concerns about socialdesirability and non-response bias when asking a set of very sensitive political questions.

Poverty and Support for Militant Politics: Evidence from Pakistan. With Graeme Blair, C. Christine Fair, and Neil Malhotra. This paper uses a nationally-representative survey in Pakistan (n = 6,000) to study the relationship between income and support for four distinct militant organizations. We find that, poor Pakistanis dislike militant groups more than middle-class citizens and that this dislike is strongest among poor urban residents, suggesting that the negative relationship stems from exposure to the externalities of terrorist attacks. (R&R AJPS) Do International Legal Norms Affect Citizens Willingness to Punish Foreign Human Rights Violations? With Tonya Putnam. This paper uses a survey experiment to assess whether international human rights treaties make a difference to the willingness of citizens in established democracies to punish the human rights violations of foreign governments. Bureaucracy and Control in Terrorist Organizations. This paper models the challenge of organizing terrorism as an agency problem where principals are better informed than agents about the mapping from policies to outcomes, but sharing information to help agents achieve better outcomes is costly. This approach explains why terrorist groups so often employ traditional mechanisms of bureaucratic control. The Terrorists Dilemma. This book manuscript studies the core organizational challenges terrorists have faced from the 1880s through the present. Using agency theory and a broad range of historical and primary source evidence the manuscript shows that terrorists face a fundamental tradeoff between operational security and organizational control. The findings have strong implications for counterterrorism and also suggest the potential of networked, non-hierarchical movements to effect massive political change has been overstated. Selected Professional Talks and Presentations Talking About Killing: Cell Phones, Collective Action, and Insurgent Violence in Iraq. For Georgetown University International Theory and Research Seminar (GUITARS), October 2011. Terrorist Ideologies and Organizations, the State of the Field. For 2nd Annual Minerva Research Initiative Conference, September 2011. Modeling Inflection Points for Terrorist Organizations. For Combating Terrorist Financing, National Counterterrorism Center, March 2011. Talking About Killing: Cell Phones, Collective Action, and Insurgent Violence in Iraq. For Columbia University International Politics Seminar, March 2011. Can Hearts and Minds Be Bought? The Economics of Counterinsurgency in Iraq. For International Relations Seminar, University of Wisconsin, October 2010.

Drivers of Peace and Conflict: Dynamics of Terrorist Organizations and Groups for The Minerva Initiative: Fostering a Community of Strategic Scholarship, National Defense University, October 2010. Invited Speaker. USAID Evidence Summit on Development to Counterinsurgency. September 2010. Communication Networks and Insurgent Violence. For Annual Meeting of the American Political Science Association, September 2010. Rules of War: The Impact of Civilian Casualties on Violence in Afghanistan. Invited presentation, New America Foundation, August 2010. The Effect of Civilian Casualties in Afghanistan and Iraq. For National Bureau of Economic Research Summer Institute 2010, Economics of National Security, July 2010. Who Takes the Blame? The Consequences of Collateral Damage. For Security Development Nexus Workshop, University of Ottawa, May 2010. The Roots of Militancy: Evidence from Pakistan. For Political Economy Seminar, Harris School of Public Policy, University of Chicago, April 2010. The Roots of Militancy: Evidence from Pakistan. For Social Science Seminar, Center for International Security and Cooperation, Stanford University, February 2010. The Roots of Militancy: Evidence from Pakistan. For International Relations Seminar, UC Berkeley, February 2010. Can Hearts and Minds Be Bought? The Economics of Counterinsurgency in Iraq. For Faculty Seminar, New York University Department of Politics, February 2010. The Roots of Militancy: Evidence from Pakistan. Invited presentation, the George Washington University Institute on Security and Conflict Studies, January 2010. Can Hearts and Minds Be Bought? The Economics of Counterinsurgency in Iraq. For Operations Research Seminar, Naval Postgraduate School, January 2010. The Politics of Militancy. Invited presentation, Georgetown University, October 2009. Who Takes the Blame? The Strategic Effects of Collateral Damage. For Workshop on Order, Conflict, and Violence, Yale University, October 2009. The Politics of Militancy. For Political Methodology Colloquium, Princeton University, September 2009.

Do Working Men Rebel? Insurgency and Unemployment in Iraq. For Governance, Development and Political Violence, University of California Institute on Global Conflict and Cooperation, June 2009. Who Takes the Blame? The Strategic Consequences of Collateral Damage. For University of Maryland Contentious Politics Workshop, May 2009. Empirical Studies of Conflict Iraq and the Philippines. Invited presentation, U.S. Army and Marine Corps Counterinsurgency Center, November 2008. Can Hearts and Minds Be Bought? The Economics of Counterinsurgency in Iraq. For National Bureau of Economic Research Summer Institute 2008, Economics of National Security, July 2008. Bureaucracy and Control in Terrorist Organizations. For Columbia University International Politics Seminar, April 2008. Heterogeneous Motivations, Discipline, and Change in Terrorist Organizations. For Annual Meeting of the International Studies Association, March 2008. Why Support Islamic Militancy? Evidence from Pakistan. For Annual Meeting of the International Studies Association, March 2008. Counterinsurgency Without Killing: Public Goods and Violence in the Iraqi Civil War. For Social Science Seminar, Center for International Security and Cooperation, Stanford University, November 2007. Non-State Actors and Failed States: Lessons from al-Qa'ida's Experiences in the Horn of Africa. For Ungoverned Spaces, Naval Postgraduate School, August 2007. Patterns of Terror: Using Organizational Changes to Evaluate Counterterrorism. For Terrorist Organizations: Social Science Research on Terrorism, University of California Institute on Global Conflict and Cooperation, May 2007. Is This Paper Dangerous: Balancing Secrecy and Openness in Counterterrorism. Invited presentation, Naval Postgraduate School, Center for Homeland Security and Defense, March 2007. What the Terrorist Risks: Operational Roles, Organizational Technology and Opportunity Costs in International Terrorism. For Annual Meeting of the American Political Science Association, September 2006. The Impact of Heterogeneous Motivations In Terrorist Organizations. For Annual Meeting of the American Political Science Association, September 2006.

The Terrorists Challenge: Security, Efficiency, Control. For Social Science Seminar, Center for International Security and Cooperation, Stanford University, May, 2005. Anti-terrorist Finance: The Good, The Bad, and The Ugly. For European Forum, Freeman Spogli International Institute, Stanford University, January, 2006. Panel with Laura K. Donohue and Khalid Medani. Organizing Terror: Hierarchy and Networks in Covert Organizations. For Annual Meeting of the American Political Science Association, September, 2005. Underfunding in Terrorist Operations. For Annual Meeting of the American Political Science Association, September, 2005. The Greedy Terrorist: Terrorist Organizations Inefficiencies and Vulnerabilities. For Social Science Seminar, Center for International Security and Cooperation, Stanford University, April, 2005. Going to Red Alert: What Can We Anticipate? For Directors Seminar, Center for International Security and Cooperation, Stanford University, November, 2004. Grants Department of Defense Minerva Research Initiative, Terrorism, Governance, and Development, 2008. Lead PI with 5 co-PI, $9.6M, five years. National Science Foundation, Robust Socio-Technological Networks: An InterDisciplinary Approach to Theoretical Foundation and Experimentation, 2009. Co-PI, $275,000, four years. Army Research Office, Measuring, Understanding, and Responding to Covert Social Networks, 2010. Co-PI, $690,000, five years. International Growth Center, Political Violence in Pakistan Understanding Subnational Patterns, 2010. Lead PI, $150,000, two years. Department of Homeland Security, Models of Counterterrorism, 2008. PI for one projects, $146,000. Co-PI for one project, $328,000, two years. Fellowships, Honors, and Professional Affiliations Term Member, Council on Foreign Relations. July 2011-. Research Fellow, Center for Economic Research Pakistan. 2010-. Harmony Fellow, Combating Terrorism Center, United States Military Academy. 20062008.

Postdoctoral Fellow, Center for International Security and Cooperation, Stanford University, Fall 2007. Predoctoral Fellow, Center for International Security and Cooperation, Stanford University, 2006-2007. Homeland Security Fellow, Center for International Security and Cooperation, Stanford University, 2005-2006. Graduate Fellow, Stanford Center on International Conflict and Negotiation, 2005-2006. Organizational Learning Fellow, Center for International Security and Cooperation, Stanford University, 2004-2005. Professional Service Co-Director, Empirical Studies of Conflict (ESOC) Project, 2009-. Associate Editor: World Politics, 2009-. Admissions Committee, Department of Political Science, Stanford University, 2006. Reviewer: American Economic Review, American Journal of Political Science, American Political Science Review, British Journal of Political Science, International Security, International Organization, Journal of Conflict Resolution, Journal of Peace Research, Journal of Political Economy, Journal of Politics, PLoS ONE, Quarterly Journal of Economics, Quarterly Journal of Political Science, Science, Journal of Development Economics, Journal of Peace Research, Public Choice, International Studies Perspectives, Homeland Security Affairs, IEEE Spectrum. Teaching Violent Politics. Undergraduate Lecture, Politics Department, Princeton University. Spring 2011. Terrorism, Civil War, and Non-State Threats. M.P.A. Seminar, Woodrow Wilson School of Public and International Affairs, Princeton University. Spring 2011. Security Studies. Ph.D Seminar, Politics Department, Princeton University. Spring 2010. Theories of International Relations. Ph.D. Seminar, Politics Department, Princeton University. Spring 2009. The Politics of Public Policy. M.A. Lecture Course, Woodrow Wilson School of Public and International Affairs, Princeton University. Fall 2008. Invited Speaker, Intelligence Course, Center for Homeland Defense and Security, Naval Postgraduate School. Spring 2007 - 2009.

Terrorist Financing and State Response. M.A. Seminar. Course developed and taught for the National Security Affairs Department, Naval Postgraduate School. Summer 2005 and Spring 2006. Academic Workshops Committee for the Analysis of Military Operations and Strategy (CAMOS) Research Design Workshop for Dissertation Writers, July 2005. Institute for Qualitative Research Methods (IQRM), January 2005. Computational Analysis of Social and Organizational Systems (CASOS) Summer Institute, June 2004. Inter-University Consortium for Political and Social Research (ICPSR) Summer Program in Quantitative Methods of Social Research, June-August 2003. Professional Experience Naval Reserve Officer, 2002-2005. Office of Naval Intelligence and Naval Warfare Development Command. Arrow Electronics, 2002 2003. Naval Officer, 1998-2002. Special Boat Team 20 and USS Arthur W. Radford (DD-968).