1

RAMIFICATIONS OF INDIA’S NAVAL BUILD-UP IN

NUCLEAR REALMS
*
Gulshan Bibi and Brice Tseen Fu Lee

Abstract
The naval build-up of India in contemporary times reflects its major power ambitions.
Owing to its development of advanced naval capabilities coupled with its long-standing
desire to develop a blue-water navy is a major driver of this build up. These blue water
ambitions stir instability in Indian Ocean Region (IOR) affecting Pakistan’s threat
perceptions. The most important development in the region's stability and security
architecture is the addition of second-strike capacity to the sea, which carries serious
consequences. Hence, it is pertinent to address the question of strategic stability
regarding the development of India’s sea based nuclear capabilities. This paper explores
Indian naval nuclear developments and their repercussions for the security environment
of South Asia. It establishes that nuclearization of Indian Ocean is leading to aggressive
arms build-up in South Asia and subsequent risk of nuclear accidents, sabotage and
command and control vulnerabilities.

Keywords: Indian Ocean Region, Arms Race, Nuclearization, BRI, Strategic

Stability, Implications.

Introduction

T he Indian Ocean is located at a critical location connecting different parts of the

world, including Asia, Europe, America and Africa. Approximately 80% of the
world's energy traffic travels across the Indian Ocean, making it a route for
international trade.1 It is not only an important route for trade, but also rich with other
resources (e.g. seafood, copper, gold, silver, cobalt and oil production). Almost 40% of
the oil production takes place at the shores of the Indian Ocean. Its strategic
importance cannot be ignored as it is also crucial considering the economic growth of
the region. Given that a considerable percentage of global trade passes through the
Indian Ocean, its strategic importance has increased manifold for extra regional
powers. Furthermore, the regional powers also intend to have maximum influence on
the Indian Ocean Region (IOR) and increase their stakes. During the Cold War era,
former Soviet Union and United States of America (USA) tried to maintain their
presence in the IOR. Only after Britain withdrew from Suez Canal, the regional

*
Miss Gulshan Bibi is a PhD Scholar at School of International Relations and Public Affairs (SIRPA), Fudan University,
Shanghai, China. Brice Tseen Fu Lee is a PhD Scholar at Fudan University, School of International Relations and
Public Affairs (SIRPA) and Senior Researcher, Universidad del Desarrollo, Faculty of Government, Santiago, Chile.
The author(s) can be reached at [email protected].

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2 Gulshan Bibi and Brice Tseen Fu Lee

countries paid attention to it. Since then, the chapter on the power struggle in the IOR
began and has never been closed.

Currently, the key concern is what impact India's development of sea-based

nuclear capacity in IOR will have on South Asia's strategic stability? The key argument
is that South Asia would lack strategic stability or deterrence stabilization with the
establishment of a nuclear triad in general or a second-strike capability in particular.
Instead, it will fuel an arms race by increasing uncertainty in South Asia and
complicating nuclear command and control.

Hegemony and Strategic Deterrence in South Asia

Classical Realism in International Relations (IR) has a theoretical offshoot as

Offensive Realism. When highlighting the crucial role of states as rational actors
interacting in the chaotic international political landscape using the principles of self-
help and survival, it captures the core ideas of the classical realist approach. Since
there is no supreme power or centralized government to reign over humans, Offensive
Realism embraces the idea that there is global anarchy, which has existed in the past,
is current, and will always exist. Through logical analysis and cost-benefit calculations,
all actors in the system assess the external environment and because governments
never fully grasp each other's intentions, fear has always been the dominant concept in
this anarchic system. Furthermore, according to John Mearsheimer, 2 global hegemony
is impossible due to the stopping force of water, which prevents nations from
extending their military might around the world. However, being a regional hegemon
with implicit authority in a region would be the ideal framework or strategy for a
powerful state. In many regions, the ultimate goal of a powerful state is to establish
regional hegemony. For explaining the modernization and growth of the Indian naval
force in the Indian Ocean, Theory of Offensive Realism by Mearsheimer establishes a
thorough theoretical framework. The modern incarnation of this idea is seen in India's
naval development.

Strategically, the deterrence in South Asia has been maintained by nuclear

arsenals not only between India and Pakistan but also with India's eastern competitor
China. Given region's strategic importance and power competition between China and
USA, the interests of all major powers have once again increased in South Asia and
IOR. The growing Sino-American power competition also impacts the nuclear
dynamics in South Asia. The result is a strategic domino effect that is starting an arms
race. Because of this strategic chain, China’s need to compete with nuclear arsenal of
the US prompts India to keep up with China, which in turn compels Pakistan to boost
its own nuclear capabilities in response to India. Along with an amplifying arms race,
it has also affected nuclearization of IOR.

The interest in the Indian Ocean goes beyond the regional actors alone while
the shift in geopolitics dynamics allows India space to catalyze nuclearization in IOR.
The Quadrilateral Security Dialogue (QUAD), comprising India, Japan, USA and

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Ramifications of India’s Naval Build-Up in Nuclear Realms 3

Australia, and the closer ties between India and USA are rising from the fact that the
dependency of each state has significantly increased on water resources. Thus, when it
comes down to it, everything boils down to a power struggle to seize direct or indirect
control of the key trade routes. This qualitative and quantitative study employs
descriptive chronological analysis to approach an issue from a larger perspective. To
various policy makers in Pakistan, it makes policy suggestions for potential areas of
regional security.

Current Indian Naval Nuclear Capabilities and Future Vision

India's commitment to attain a nuclear triad, in line with conventional

nuclear warfighting doctrine, is clearly evident from its current naval nuclear
capabilities and future vision. It has made significant strides in enhancing its naval
capabilities, with a focus on both indigenous development and strategic partnerships.
The flagship aircraft carrier, INS Vikrant, weighing 45,000 tons, is an impressive
achievement in indigenously built naval assets.3 The INS Vishal, the second ship of the
Vikrant-class aircraft carrier, is currently in the design stage and holds the potential to
be India's first nuclear-powered aircraft carrier. This signals a strategic move towards
bolstering the country's naval prowess with cutting-edge technology.4

The Kiev Class INS Vikramaditya, at 45,400 tons, remains a cornerstone of the
Indian Navy, showcasing the importance of versatile assets in naval operations. 5
Meanwhile, the Amphibious Warfare Ships, initially planned between 9,000 to 16,000
tons, underwent a modification to introduce two amphibious assault vessels with a
displacement of 30,000 to 40,000 tons. The contenders for this development include
Spain's Juan Carlos I Class and France's Mistral-class.

The Project 15 Bravo or Visakhapatnam Class Destroyer, exemplified by INS

Mormugao, boosts features such as automation and stealth, with subsequent vessels
like INS Imphal and INS Surat planned for commissioning in 2024 and 2025,
respectively. Similarly, the Project-17 Alpha or Nilgiri-Class Frigates aim to enhance
stealth capabilities, Radar Cross-Section (RCS), and Infrared signature on Shivalik
Class Frigates, with a goal to induct all these ships by 2025-2027.6

Project 11356 or Talwar Class Frigates, featuring better stealth and armament
at 3,850 tons is set to see the first two Russian-built ships enter service in 2023,
followed by the final two in 2026.7 Additionally, the Anti-Submarine Warfare Shallow
Water Craft (ASW-SWC) Corvette, developed by CSL and GRSE, is expected to replace
the Abhay-Class Corvettes, with all 16 corvettes slated to be in service by 2026. 8

The Next Generation Missile Vessels (NGMVs), designed for low Radar Cross-
Section (RCS) and weighing 2,200–2,800 tons will see six vessels built by Cochin
Shipyard by 2027.9 Meanwhile, the Next Generation Off-shore Patrol Vessels, totaling
11 advanced Patrol Ships, could potentially be delivered to neighbouring countries,
following India's past practices.

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In terms of submarines, India aims to increase its fleet size to 24 by 2030, with
the introduction of various classes such as the Arihant Class Submarine, S-5 Class
Submarine, Chakra III (Akula) class Submarine, and Project 75 Alpha. 10 The Kalvari
class or Scorpene-class submarines, produced by French Naval Group and Mazagon
Dock Shipbuilders, are scheduled to have a total of six submarines, with four already
in service and the remaining two expected in 2023.

Project 75I Class Submarine, a diesel-electric submarine with an allocated

budget of 43,000 crores, is currently in progress. The Indian Navy's comprehensive
approach also includes the acquisition of Twin Engine Deck Based Fighter (TEDBF) to
replace the MiG-29K aircraft and the Multirole Carrier Borne Fighter, with 36 Boeing
F/A-18 Super Hornets successfully tested in March of the previous year.11

For maritime surveillance and reconnaissance, the Indian Navy has invested
in Naval Shipborne Unmanned Aerial Systems and MQ-9B Sea Guardian UAVs.
Additionally, various aircraft and helicopters, including the Dornier 228, Boeing P-8I
Poseidon, Sikorsky MH-60R Romeo Helicopters, Kamov Ka-31 airborne early warning
and control helicopter, and the upcoming Indian Multi-Role Helicopter (IMRH),
demonstrate India's commitment to modernizing its aerial capabilities. 12 In short,
India's naval capabilities reflect a combination of indigenous innovation, strategic
partnerships, and a forward-looking vision for a robust and technologically advanced
naval force.

Rationale behind Indian Naval Nuclear Developments

This section tries to answer multiple questions such as:

 Why does India want a nuclear triad?

 What effects would India's development of sea-based nuclear capability
have on nuclear deterrence and strategic stability in South Asia?
 What is India's nuclear navy's development trajectory?
 Would the ability to launch a second strike stabilize Pakistani-Indian
deterrence?
 What is the way forward for Pakistan to counter India's expanding naval
capabilities? The following analysis tries to sum up the debate.

Doctrinal Footings

India began its nuclear programme and made strides in this direction under
Rajiv Gandhi's leadership. As a result of this planning, India launched its first-ever
nuclear ballistic submarine, INS Arihant. Earlier, India was more focused on its
continental strategy. However, in recent times, it has shifted its focus on the IOR.

India published a draft nuclear policy following its nuclear tests in 1998. It
called for a future minimum nuclear deterrent to be made up of "a triad of aircraft,
mobile land-based missiles, and sea-based assets."13 In subsequent publications, such

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Ramifications of India’s Naval Build-Up in Nuclear Realms 5

as the maritime strategy and updates to its doctrine in 2004, 2009, and 2015, the
importance of sea-based deterrent to India's nuclear posture has been emphasized. In
2009, the Indian Navy conducted a study that concluded that for nuclear deterrence, a
nuclear submarine is ideal due to its stealth capabilities and its ability to launch a
second strike. Mr. Arun Prakash, Former Chief of Indian Naval Staff, makes a similar
point. He argues that the only way for India to ensure the unbreakability of its
deterrent is to deploy it on an SSBN and keep it underwater.14 He further says that
satellites make it harder to hide or protect land-based nuclear facilities. Once a
submarine reaches the deep waters of the open ocean, it becomes nearly impossible to
locate or attack.

The Indian government has put SSBNs at the top of its list of changes to its
doctrine in order to build a credible nuclear deterrent against Pakistan and China, two
of its nuclear adversaries. One of the most important parts of India's Maritime Security
Strategy for 201515 is a nuclear deterrent that is based at sea. In response to a nuclear
attack on India, it says that it is important to keep "a credible minimum deterrent with
the threat of overwhelming nuclear retribution designed to cause intolerable
damage.”16 This relies on dispersion, making it challenging to attack by surprise. India
wanted to make an SSBN, which is a part of the nuclear triad that can be used at sea.
The document says that due to its stealth qualities, which enable discrete and lengthy
deployment as well as combat capabilities, including weaponry, an SSBN delivers a
credible, effective, and survivable capability and helps ensure punishing reprisal in
accordance with our nuclear strategy. When SSBNs are in place, it makes it harder for
an enemy to gain the upper hand through nuclear posture or escalation. Some people
say that bureaucratic concerns and a desire for status led India to decide to build a
nuclear triad. Having nuclear power gives the fleet a lot of prestige, which is clear.
During Arihant's debut in July 2009, Manmohan Singh, India's Prime Minister
Manmohan Singh declared, "Today, we join an exclusive club of five countries [the five
permanent members of the United Nations Security Council (UNSC)] that have the
ability to build a nuclear-powered submarine." He continued, referring to it as “a
special achievement.”17

There could also be a bureaucratic reason. The Indian Navy asserts that India
is the only country without a nuclear triad. Its lack of strategic programmes was
discussed in its first public maritime policy, which was released in 2004. India's
development of nuclear naval capabilities gives it more prestige and makes it a part of
the strategic nuclear programme. However, the Cold War belief that a second strike is
crucial may be a significant reason for India's pursuit of nuclear-armed naval vessels.
According to the Indian Maritime Security Strategy 2015, the Cold War showed that
stabilizing and improving deterrence can be done by reducing the first-strike
component while increasing the second-strike component. The Indian strategy
revolves around the navy, particularly a nuclear navy with a submarine capable of
launching a second attack. There is a rationale behind this policy. “Given its nuclear
stance of No First Use (NFU), India is particularly interested in the naval component
of the nuclear triad.”18 Under the current Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) government, the

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Indian Ocean has gained a level of priority in Indian foreign policy arguably not seen
since the time of Indira Gandhi. Currently in IOR, the Indian Navy is the top maritime
power. In 2022, it has unceasingly carried out its mandate by increasing its presence.

India's Increasing Naval Budget and Resources

India has been building a blue-water fleet to improve its sea power. To reach
its goal of becoming a regional and global power, it considers to improve its naval
nuclear capabilities. Currently, the Indian Navy has a fleet of 300 aircraft, 150 ships,
and submarines. Six submarines and 56 more warships are now being built in Indian
shipyards. (Details are aforementioned in the table)

Indian naval strength and budget are gradually getting better and stronger.
Indian navy has received funding in the amount of 450 million INR for the upgrading
of its assets, as estimated by the budget for the fiscal year 2022–2023 Additionally, it is
estimated that by 2026–2027 the navy will receive nearly $2700 million for simply its
modernization needs, indicating an annual 10% growth for naval modernization. 19 In
contrast to the INR 33,253.55 crores from the budget for the previous year, Indian Navy
has been given a share of INR 47,590.99 crores for capital outlays in 2022–23. The
figures show that the capital expenditure in 2022–23 will be higher by 43.11 percent
than the amount allowed for the Indian Navy in 2021–22. It also plans to spend at least
$61 billion over the next few years to almost triple the size of its fleet.

Financial Allocated Budget Overall budget of Percentage Share

Year to Indian Navy three services of the IN in terms
(both Revenue and (both Revenue of service-wise
Capital) value in and Capital) allocation
crores value in crores (in percent)
2021-22 56,614.23 3,47,088.28 16.31
2022-23 72,997.41 3,85,370,15 18.94

(Source: Rahul Rawat, India’s defence budget: The navy and its Atmanirbhar Bharat
Mission)

To deter adversaries, Indian Navy continues to advance its procurement

goals. “During 2022, construction of 37 ships and submarines at Indian shipyards
under Atmanirbhar Bharat was progressed.” 20 Current Indian government is also
paying focus on indigenization, self-sufficiency, and the "Make in India" programme. A
10-year Integrated Capability Development Plan (ICDP) has been adopted to support
the modernization of the Indian Navy in line with the country's emphasis on self-
reliance. The former Maritime Capability Perspective Plan, which covered 15 years, was
replaced by the ICDP (MPCC). Development of marine theatre command and
increased modernization flexibility are the two main planning changes due to the
quick pace of technological advancement.

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Ramifications of India’s Naval Build-Up in Nuclear Realms 7

Development of Nuclear Sea Capabilities by India

With the construction of a 90 MW reactor underway, the Indian Ocean has

become more nuclear. This development led India to rent a nuclear submarine from
the USSR." INS Arihant, its first nuclear ballistic missile submarine, is part of this plan.
This submarine can accommodate approximately twelve K-15 Sagarika SLBMs. These
submarines can launch ballistic missiles that are armed with nuclear weapons.

Additionally, India wants to add more submarines to its fleet. This includes
updating India's Russian and German submarines and building Scorpions with help
from the French. Also, the US will lease more Russian submarines. The French
government owns a company called Direction des Constructions Navels (DCNS),
which will help build the $4.6 billion Scorpion submarines. These submarines are hard
to find because they can stay underwater for up to a week. By prioritizing submarines,
India aims to be better prepared for potential conflicts, gaining a significant strategic
advantage in the Indian Ocean. In addition, the Indian Navy has the nuclear-powered
Akula-class submarine INS Chakra (SSN), which can remain submerged for months as
opposed to conventional submarines, which must frequently surface.21 Upgrades could
be implemented on these submarines to enable them to launch ballistic missiles with
nuclear warheads. India's ability to launch a second attack depends on how many
Arihant-class SSBNs it can build. It appears that India plans to include six Arihant-
class SSBNs in its fleet expansion. While India and Russia discuss the possibility of
renting a second attack submarine from the Akula class, six nuclear attack submarines
(SSNs) are also under construction. In March 2023, France also offered to collaborate
with India in jointly creating six nuclear submarines. India would benefit from not
having to rely on Russia, and France would benefit from being able to recover all of its
investment in the abandoned Australia contract.22

India has also tested and deployed the Dhanush short-range ballistic missile,
capable of carrying nuclear weapons. The naval version of Prithvi III can carry 500 kg
and has a range of 350 km23 through collaboration between India and Russia, India
acquired frigates of the Talwar class. Each of these frigates is equipped with eight
nuclear Brahmos missiles. Brahmos missiles are versatile, capable of being launched
from submarines, surface ships, ground installations, and aircraft. 24 Once India
acquires a complete arsenal of nuclear-capable missiles for its naval systems, it will be
able to conduct a second nuclear attack. Indian neighbours, including Pakistan, feel
threatened because of this growth. On December 18, 2022, Indian Navy launched INS
Mormugao, indigenously-built second ship of the Visakhapatnam-class stealth guided-
missile destroyers. Shri Rajnath Singh, Defence Minister of India said at the launch
event that its first aim is to ensure that the battleship, which is equipped with cutting-
edge weapons and sensors, "would boost country's maritime capabilities and secure
national interests amid developing global environment.25

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Implications for Strategic Stability in South Asia and Pakistan

Pakistan, a primary littoral state in the IOR, boasts a 990km long coastline
situated in the middle of the Arabian Sea. Its Exclusive Economic Zone contains the
majority of its marine economic resources. Due to its proximity providing the quickest
maritime access to Afghanistan, the Western Province of China, and the landlocked
Central Asian nations, its western shore, near the Gulf, holds strategic significance.
The Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) and China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) by
China provide the Indian Ocean much more significance for Pakistan. Pakistan is
motivated to protect its economic interests in the Indian Ocean by the commercial
prospects, connectivity, and resources. Concerns regarding maritime security,
including the preservation of SLOCs, security measures at maritime chokepoints, Pak-
India tensions, and Sino-Indian rivalry, are endangering the stability of the area and
could determine the future dominance of IOR.

Indian Ocean Rim Association (IORA) was founded with India as a founding
member, which is of primary importance. In addition to maritime safety and security,
the IORA has recently expanded its purview to cover non-traditional concerns. The
IORA was originally established for economic cooperation. It is a collaboration
between numerous regional and non-regional states. Pakistan's membership in the
IORA was stopped by India. Considering that Pakistan is a major role in the Indian
Ocean region, the Indian navy's naval modernization and its expansion there would
raise serious questions about Pakistan's national security. The Indian Ocean, in
Pakistan's opinion, belongs to all the littoral states in the region and is not only India's
ocean. Along with having effects on Pakistan's national security, India's rapid naval
development and expansion of its naval forces throughout the Indian Ocean will also
alter the balance of regional strategic stability. This modernization has the potential to
impact regional stability in South Asia in several ways.

India's growing naval capabilities, which include the purchase of new ships,
nuclear-powered submarines, aircraft carriers, new and sophisticated attack
helicopters, and the revitalization of its third eye through the use of spy satellites,
potentially shift the regional power balance in its favour and heighten military
tensions with neighbours like Pakistan. India's ambitious could result in a regional
arms race as other nations may follow suit and need to improve their naval capabilities
to balance India's rising naval power, which could be unstable.

Pakistan has strong reservations about India's strategic alliance with the
United States and its new ties with neighboring countries that ignore Pakistan. The
Indian Navy has entered into numerous agreements with various states (including
Japan, Australia, Mauritius, Madagascar, Seychelles, and others) throughout the Indian
Ocean region in an effort to create naval bases there. The expansion of India in the
region is seen as aggressive by Pakistan, which is experiencing economic difficulties
and was unable to modernize its naval capabilities, upsetting the balance in the region.

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Ramifications of India’s Naval Build-Up in Nuclear Realms 9

Conflicts with other South Asian countries, especially Pakistan, could arise as
a result of increasing patrols and surveillance in the Indian Ocean as a result of India's
expanded naval presence in the region. It might jeopardize the maritime security of
the region.

The region's other nations may raise their military spending as a result of
India's navy modernization efforts, which could syphon funds away from economic
growth and possibly widen the wealth gap, which could be unstable.

The upgrading of India's navy may also have an impact on the region's
economy because of India's potential to gain more control over trade lanes and
resources in the Indian Ocean, which would be detrimental for Pakistan and other
neighbouring economies.

The growing stress in the maritime environment hurts Pakistan's ability to

protect its borders. Karachi and Qasim, Pakistan's two largest ports, handle 45% and
55% of all business, respectively. Security concerns arise due to the proximity of these
ports to India's aviation and naval capabilities, especially considering that Pakistan
relies entirely on maritime trade routes for its oil supply. India has the power to limit
communication, freedom of movement, and access to the ocean's resources, which is a
threat to all Indian Ocean countries with coastlines. On the other hand, India's
intentions to deploy nuclear weapons in the Indian Ocean pose the most significant
threat. Putting together its nuclear triad is a significant step in the right direction for
Pakistan, which wants to maintain a potent nuclear deterrent against India. While
India and Pakistan have different naval strengths, it makes the danger seem more real.

At the moment, the Indian navy is six times bigger than the Pakistani navy.
India's naval strategy calls for its fleet to be much better by the year 2027. This would
make Pakistan even more worried about its security, speed up the arms race between
India and Pakistan, and make the gap between their naval forces even bigger.
Additionally, the marine infrastructure in India is quite advanced with 212 ports, of
which 12 are important. By acting like a security provider, India is trying to convince
the rest of the world and China that it is now part of the power struggle. It shows that
force projection and sea denial are at the center of India's naval strategy. Additionally,
recent demands for arming India with thermonuclear weapons and naval nuclear
reactor designs by academics like Ashley Tellis represent a risky course of action and
negative implications.26

Even if Pakistan and India each had a certain ability to launch a second
attack, they would still work on building up their conventional forces, making new
nuclear delivery systems, and improving nuclear warhead technology. Putting an
underwater deterrent in place would make it more likely that it would be mishandled,
misunderstood, or escalate, making an already dangerous situation even worse. One
Indian analyst, Vipin Narang, thinks that if the SSBN force worked, it would make it
harder for civilians in India to control their nuclear weapons. India's nuclear arsenal is
under civilian control during times of peace and moderately important events. This

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makes it less likely that the weapons will be used by accident. Diana Wueger talks
about the problem of "always/never." Even though weapons must always be ready to
be used, this suggests that it may be hard to keep them from being used accidentally
or without permission. The certainty of assembling nuclear weapons on a submarine
differs from the current plan of India and Pakistan, where delivery systems and
warheads are kept separate. Assembling weapons increases the risk of accidental use,
heightening the danger in the South Asian nuclear theater. If the ship's connection to
the outside world breaks, things could get very dangerous. India's nuclear command
and control system is still being built, so a submarine carrying a nuclear-tipped missile
would need to be given permission to launch ahead of time. This increases the chance
of a mistake and an unauthorized launch.27 India already has a history of missing
uranium and nuclear accidents. It argues that it has an unblemished track record in
nuclear safety and security, although a series of accidents in India call this Indian
claim into question. Three thefts of uranium or radioactive items took place in India in
2021, proving that there is a black market for nuclear materials inside India.
Additionally, it calls into question India's massive stockpiles of fissile material. The
Indian government seized 6.4 Kg of uranium in Jharkhand in June 2021 and 7 kg of
uranium in Maharashtra in May 2021.28 Similar to this, on August 21 in Kolkata, 250 kg
of highly radioactive and poisonous material called Californium, valued $573, was
seized, and two people were detained. 11 persons in total were detained in connection
with these 3 occurrences. In India, instances of this nature are not unusual. People
have been detained in the past on charges similar to these. In March 2022, it launched
a missile towards Pakistan, attributing the mishap to a technical error during routine
maintenance. It was a fast-moving object that fell close to the eastern city of Mian
Channu in Punjab, endangering several domestic and international passenger planes
as well as people and property on the ground in Pakistani and Indian airspace.29

Way Forward for Pakistan

The Indian military developments fundamentally shape Pakistan’s security
choices. The naval nuclear developments have motivated Pakistan to develop its own
sea based nuclear capabilities. Pakistan emphasizes reinforcing its policy of credible
minimum deterrence by attaining a second-strike capability through its own sea-based
deterrent. The strategic forces command was already established back in 2012
foreseeing the Indian destabilizing ambitions regarding Indian Ocean. While working
to develop nuclear powered submarines, it can come up with novel technique of
utilizing its cruise missiles keeping in view the current capabilities, the diesel-powered
subs can be armed with nuclear tipped missiles, tactical can be mounted over naval
frigates and giant naval war planes. By adopting innovative approaches, Pakistan could
leverage its diesel submarines and dual-purpose platforms to establish a second-strike
capability. It is in its financial interests to embrace this path since its economic
limitations and time constraints. The SLBM Babar III has already been successfully
tested in 2017 with range of 450 Km which manifests the technological advancement in
time towards the balancing act and preserving the strategic stability plugging in the

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strategic gaps created by India in South Asia. Moreover, it must improve its
conventional submarines and other maritime nuclear launch systems.

While pursuing parity and stability on technical grounds Pakistan should also
work on diplomatic grounds to put pressure on India about the hazards of vertical
proliferations.30 The dangers of nuclearizing Indian ocean must be highlighted to
international community whose implications would not be just limited to Indian
ocean and South Asian region but beyond. All the major arrangements and IGOs must
be reached out to introduce nuclear restraint measures in the region to regulate the
escalation ladder in the region and preempt any untoward crisis situation. The
proposal to declare the Indian Ocean a Nuclear Weapon-Free Zone (NWFZ) could
have a major stabilizing effect in this nuclear flashpoint region and pave the way for
creating a conducive conflict resolution environment. Moreover, the 32 littoral
governments that border the Indian Ocean also have a responsibility because the
advent of nuclear weapons poses a threat to all of them. The neighboring states are in
significant danger from sabotage, nuclear accidents, and unlawful nuclear weapon use
since the radiation that results can contaminate vast areas. Therefore, it is in the
interest of all the stakeholders, global community, all the littoral states, international
regimes to advocate nuclear weapon free zone in the Indian Ocean. Second strike
capability usually makes deterrence stability stronger among the nuclear powers and
particularly the rivals. But if one has acquired second-strike capability and other lacks
it, then the stability and balance of power erodes. In case of India and Pakistan, the
nuclearization of sea-leg of Pakistan must be deemed as reaction to Indian
nuclearization of the ocean. Now, when both the countries are striving for
nuclearization of sea-leg the chances of nuclear warfare become higher due to lesser
collateral damage in water. However, there is a need to reduce the chances of war by:

 Working towards establishment of values and norms which can regulate

the behaviour of archrivals in seas.
 Confidence Building Measures (CBMs) should also be taken between the
two countries in order to prevent the chances of naval warfare between
India and Pakistan.
 Having anti-missile capabilities in place can help to improve the overall
security posture of the country, particularly in the face of potential
threats from nuclear-powered submarines or other sources. However,
acquiring and maintaining these systems can be complex and expensive,
and the government of Pakistan should carefully consider the costs and
benefits of such investments.
 Pakistan would have to build up its own navy and nuclear capabilities in
order to keep the balance of deterrence between the two countries. This
would turn the Indian Ocean into a pointless arms race.

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12 Gulshan Bibi and Brice Tseen Fu Lee

Conclusion

The Indian Ocean has always been of interest to major powers. From the
colonial Era to post-colonial times, major powers sought to maintain a monopoly on
water routes. However, after Britain withdrew from East Suez, Indians took an interest
in IOR. Initially, India's focus was on coastal regions, but now it extends to the waters
of the Indian Ocean. Currently, the nuclearization of the Indian Ocean is provocative
and India's superiority over Pakistan contributes to regional instability. The division
and polarization in the region are also alarming for other countries. Regional
circumstances in the form of extreme polarization, the nuclearization of the Indian
Ocean, and the far-right regime in India are all causing threats to the region. The
involvement of foreign powers in the region is another factor in brewing intense
sentiments and chances of warfare. The intentional and conscious visit of Nancy Pelosi
has taken the regional tensions a step ahead. Collectively, these factors pose challenges
to the peace and stability of the region. The present circumstances reinforce the
statement of the UN Chief regarding nuclear escalation and calls for responsibility on
behalf of nuclear powers.

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Ramifications of India’s Naval Build-Up in Nuclear Realms 13

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30
Author in a personal discussion with Abdul Aleem, Former DG National Institute of Maritime Affairs (NIMA),
Behria University Islamabad, on August 8, 2022.

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