The Aircraft Carrier in Indian Naval Doctrine
The Aircraft Carrier in Indian Naval Doctrine
The Aircraft Carrier in Indian Naval Doctrine
Volume 71
Article 6
Number 1 Winter
2018
Recommended Citation
Ho, Ben Wan Beng (2018) "The Aircraft Carrier in Indian Naval Doctrine," Naval War College Review: Vol. 71 : No. 1 , Article 6.
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Ho: The Aircraft Carrier in Indian Naval Doctrine
I n October 2015, the Indian navy released a document entitled Ensuring Secure
Seas: Indian Maritime Security Strategy (IMMS-2015).1 In contrast to its more
conservative predecessor, Freedom to Use the Seas: India’s Maritime Military Strat-
egy, published in 2007, the new strategic document propounds a more assertive
role for the Indian navy over the next ten years.2 To that end, New Delhi seeks to
build up a force structure centered on three aircraft carriers, each of which would
form the nucleus of a carrier battle group (CBG).3
IMMS-2015 does not delineate what roles Indian carriers would fulfill dur-
ing wartime, other than that they will be a key contributor to sea control, which
is “a central concept around which the Indian Navy will be employed.”4 The
Ben Ho is a senior analyst with the military studies carrier traditionally has been regarded as a use-
program of the S. Rajaratnam School of Internation- ful platform for this endeavor, as it is essentially
al Studies in Singapore, and holds a master’s degree
in strategic studies from the same institution. His
a mobile, territorially independent air base from
primary research focus is naval platforms/capabili- which aircraft can be deployed to fulfill various sea
ties; secondary research interests include airpower control–related roles. Historically, the three main
and irregular warfare. He has published in these ar-
eas in the Journal of Military and Strategic Studies, tasks for which the aircraft carrier has provided
RUSI Defence Systems, National Interest, and The significant utility during a conventional war have
Diplomat. He also conducts courses on topics such
been (1) attacking the enemy’s maritime assets, (2)
as seapower, airpower, joint operations, and force
transformation for junior and midranking officers of projecting power ashore, and (3) protecting one’s
the Singapore Armed Forces. sea lines of communication (SLOCs).
How effective would Indian aircraft carriers
© 2017 by Ben Wan Beng Ho
Naval War College Review, Winter 2018, Vol. 71, No. 1 be in these areas during a future war with India’s
strategic rivals? This is a question worth exploring, yet no previous literature has
dealt with it explicitly. Moreover, addressing this subject would contribute to the
richness of the overall carrier debate that has been going on since the platform’s
inception in the 1920s.5
To contextualize the issue, an Indo-Pakistani war scenario will be discussed,
given the historical enmity between the two South Asian states.6 The level of hos-
tility is such that Shashank Joshi believes that “India’s single most probable mili-
tary contingency remains a limited war with Pakistan.”7 A series of border clashes
occurred in the disputed region of Kashmir between the two nations in 2014–15.
More recently, in September 2016, militants ostensibly linked to Pakistan killed
twenty soldiers during a raid on a military outpost in Indian-held Kashmir,
which led to Indian special forces purportedly crossing the Line of Control to
carry out a reprisal attack.8 Border tensions have continued to simmer since then,
so conflict between India and Pakistan cannot be ruled out. Such a confrontation,
should it take place, is highly likely to be a conventional one, given that both sides
have nuclear weapons and crossing the atomic Rubicon—even to use low-yield
tactical devices—could escalate the conflict into an utterly ruinous war.
In a notional Indo-Pakistani war, the modest size of Indian carrier wings will
give rise to what is known as the “small-deck carrier quandary.” In this case, that
quandary restricts an Indian carrier’s utility for going on the offensive, whether
focused at sea or ashore. This dilemma revolves around what proportions of such
a ship’s relatively small fighter complement—barely two dozen aircraft—should
be allotted to defense and to attack. This will be a key consideration for a CBG
commander as he faces Islamabad’s burgeoning antiaccess/area-denial (A2/AD)
complex.
On the other hand, the small-deck carrier conundrum would not be felt as
acutely with regard to the SLOC-protection role, as Indian flattops would be able
to devote their aircraft mainly to defense. Furthermore, carriers are particularly
well suited for this task, as sea-based airpower has a number of operational ad-
vantages over its land-based counterpart.
To date, no academic publication has dealt specifically with the likely useful-
ness of Indian carriers during a possible contingency involving Pakistan. Some
journal articles have covered carriers in relation to India in a general sense, but
not regarding an Indo-Pakistani scenario per se.9 While a number of works
discuss the Indian navy as a whole during a notional war with Pakistan, they
do not discuss the functions that carriers would perform.10 The one academic
source that does cover the subject to any significant degree is the book Sea Power
and Indian Security, by Rahul Roy-Chaudhury. In a section entitled “An Indo-
Pakistani Naval War: A Scenario in the Future,” the author alludes to the likely
missions of Indian carriers, but he does not assess the ships’ likely effectiveness.11
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What is more, the book was published in 1995, and naval developments in the
two decades since then necessitate a fresh look at the issue. There also seems to be
a misconception that the Indian aircraft carrier is a potent naval platform solely
by virtue of its organic airpower. To illustrate, one commentator states rather
sweepingly that INS Vikramaditya’s “powerful air wing is capable of executing
air superiority, anti-surface, anti-ship and anti-submarine warfare” during a war
with Pakistan—without explaining in detail how it would do so.12 Thus, there ex-
ists a lacuna in the existing literature on a key aspect of the Indian navy.
This article therefore seeks to answer the following central research question:
How useful would the Indian aircraft carrier be during a hypothetical conflict
against Pakistan in the medium and long terms? To address the issue, this article
will extrapolate from existing, open-source information to the likely dynamics
of Indian carrier operations against Pakistan. The time horizon discussed will
extend to 2025. (Going beyond that time frame would not be prudent, as tech-
nological developments over the longer term might render conclusions invalid,
on the basis of extant dynamics.) While there has been much talk about China’s
fledgling naval presence in the Indian Ocean, it is unlikely to constitute a genuine
strategic threat to New Delhi within the time frame discussed herein, consider-
ing Beijing’s current preoccupation with its own “back yard” within the so-called
first island chain.13 Limiting the discussion to Pakistan is therefore sound, as the
country always has been a clear and present threat in the eyes of India’s security
managers.
The next section provides current background information on India’s aircraft
carriers. An assessment of the platform in the offensive mode (attacking sea- and
land-based targets) with reference to the small-deck carrier quandary follows,
succeeded by an analysis of the use of Indian carriers for SLOC defense. The final
section puts forth a number of recommendations for Indian naval planners, fol-
lowed by concluding remarks.
TABLE 1
Notes:
AEW = airborne early warning; ASW = antisubmarine warfare; STOBAR = short takeoff but arrested recovery.
a. R. Sukumaran, “Operationalising the Gorshkov: An Appraisal,” Strategic Analysis 28, no. 1 (2004), p. 40.
b. “Vikrant-Class Indigenous Aircraft Carrier (IAC).”
may be attached to the CTF as per mission requirements, such as for conduct of
Expeditionary, Out-of-Area, or Amphibious Operations.”16 The key question is
as follows: If India were to have a conflict with Pakistan in the 2020s, how could
Vikrant and Vikramaditya contribute to the war effort?
Although the 2015 maritime strategy devotes an entire chapter to war fighting,
it is not clear on the specifics of Indian carriers’ role in a conflict, other than that
they are to wrest sea control from the adversary.17 The same can be said about
earlier maritime strategic documents, such as the 2009 maritime doctrine and the
2007 predecessor to IMMS-2015.18
A retired Pakistani naval officer believes that implementation of the Cold
Start doctrine, which was devised specifically to deal with India’s western neigh-
bor, would see the Indian navy taking a forward posture and imposing a distant
blockade of Pakistani ports.19 Similarly, Roy-Chaudhury opines that an Indo-
Pakistani conflict is likely to see CBGs attacking the enemy’s naval forces, striking
at military-economic targets inland, interdicting the enemy’s SLOCs, and defend-
ing friendly merchant shipping.20 The first three functions involve Indian CBGs
operating in an offensive mode—which brings the small-deck carrier quandary
to the fore.
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. . . Hence, once that minimum force required for the various tasks of self-defence is
subtracted, there will not be anything substantial left over in the air wing for “true
carrier missions.” It must also be mentioned that these predictions assume a near 100
percent availability of the air wing and optimal management of the launch/retrieve
windows, which is very unlikely in a war.21
Therein lies the dilemma that small-deck carriers face: how to juggle their
already limited complement of planes between offensive and defensive purposes.
The raison d’être of the aircraft carrier is its air wing, and the latter’s size dictates
the operations the vessel can execute. Force projection, whether against land or
maritime targets, is one of the key doctrinal roles of the carrier, and being able to
carry out strike missions is thus the vessel’s sine qua non. However, carriers, even
small-deck flattops such as Vikrant and Vikramaditya, are large, multibillion-
dollar platforms, and thus protecting them would be of utmost importance to
commanders. INS Vikrant and Vikramaditya are both in the forty-thousand-ton-
displacement category. Furthermore, Vikrant is slated to cost over U.S.$2.2 bil-
lion, while the cost of refitting Vikramaditya, currently the Indian navy’s flagship,
is about U.S.$2.9 billion.22 In view of the carrier’s capital-ship status and hefty
price tag, as well as its symbolizing of national power, protecting such ships from
enemy threats would be critical, and a good portion of their aircraft complements
invariably would be dedicated to this.
The challenge thus is for the CBG leadership to strike a judicious balance
between offense and defense—an uphill task. Bearing in mind the threats that
modern A2/AD systems present, how likely would a commander be to set aside
more aircraft for offensive purposes—and risk having a crown jewel of his navy
attacked and hit? Nevertheless, setting aside too many aircraft for defense adds
credence to the contention of various carrier critics that the ship and its escorts
are a “self-licking ice cream cone”—that is, an entity that exists solely to sustain
itself.23 The CBG leadership hence would be placed in a catch-22 situation: al-
locate more fighters to strike missions, and the task force’s susceptibility to aerial
threats increases; conversely, set aside more aircraft for defense, and the carrier’s
ability to project power declines. Having a sizable air wing on the ship would
mitigate this dilemma, but neither Vikramaditya nor Vikrant does. After all, each
of them can carry only about twenty fixed-wing aircraft, and at least half of those
invariably will be assigned to provide fleet air defense, leaving not even a dozen
available for strike duties.
The operational history of light carriers bears this out. To illustrate, of the forty-
two Harrier jets deployed on HMS Hermes and Invincible during the Falklands
War, twenty-eight—a substantial two-thirds—had fleet air defense as their pri-
mary role.24 Just as tellingly, of the 1,300-odd total sorties that Harriers flew dur-
ing the Falklands conflict, about 83 percent of them were for combat air patrol.25
Matters are not helped by the fact that less than 100 percent of any air wing
will be available for service. In fact, one informed observer of naval matters
contends that around 80 percent of a carrier’s air wing is mission capable at
any time.26 Assuming this to be true, twenty or fewer of the fighter jets aboard
Vikramaditya or Vikrant will be flyable. It bears consideration that a recent scath-
ing report revealed that some 21 to 47 percent of INS Vikramaditya’s MiG-29Ks
were nonoperational.27 Needless to say, such a low serviceability rate would have
a tremendous impact on carrier operations, especially during combat, and India
would do well to remedy this problem promptly and decisively. In any case, an In-
dian carrier’s small fighter constituent means that if it were to attempt to partake
in operations against an adversary with credible A2/AD capabilities, the vessel
would be hard-pressed to protect itself, let alone project power.
Therefore, it is doubtful that any attack force launched from an Indian carrier
would pack a significant punch. With aircraft available for strike duties barely
numbering into the double digits, the Indian carrier simply cannot deliver a
substantial “pulse” of combat power against its adversary. Given that the pulse an
American supercarrier delivers with a full deck-load launch of over forty fight-
ers may not constitute enough combat power, a big question mark hovers over
the effects the Indian small-deck carrier could achieve with its meager strike
packages.28
In addition, a typical strike package, besides the main attack component,
usually comprises elements filling the roles of achieving air superiority and
suppressing enemy air defenses. A notional strike force from Vikramaditya will
consist solely of MiG-29Ks, and hence either it must devote its assets solely to
the two aforementioned supporting roles or the attacking aircraft must give over
a number of their hard points to carry air-to-air/antiradiation missiles, or elec-
tronic countermeasures pods, or both. Either choice would reduce the ordnance
that could be brought to bear on the enemy. Critics may contend that mass is
not needed in the current age of precision-guided munitions, but this argument
ignores the fact that it may take saturation attacks to overcome modern air-
defense systems.29
Making matters worse is the limited performance of Indian carrier planes.
Both the Vikramaditya and Vikrant platforms are configured for short takeoff
but arrested recovery (STOBAR), so can launch aircraft only via their ski jumps.
This point is crucial, as planes taking off in this manner must carry less ord-
nance, fuel, or both. Notably, the mainstay MiG-29K has a relatively short com-
bat radius of about 850 kilometers if it flies on internal fuel alone.30 That figure
could be increased to 1,300 km with external fuel tanks, but this too reduces the
number of hard points available for ordnance.31 During the Falklands War, the
danger posed by Argentina’s Super Étendards armed with Exocet antiship cruise
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wait along the Indian carrier’s route, successful positioning is highly contingent
on accurate intelligence.
On the other hand, Pakistani aerial antiship capabilities are arguably more
ominous for Indian carriers. For one, it is decidedly easier to find and maintain
contact with the enemy from the air than from under the waves. Pakistan’s mili-
tary aviation arm has a credible antisurface capability, in the form of a dedicated
antiship squadron of Mirage fighters that have a combat radius of about 1,200
km and are armed with the Exocet ASCM.44 Islamabad also plans to equip its
newly acquired JF-17 attack fighters, which have a combat radius of over 1,200
km, with the Chinese CM-400 AKG ASCM, which can hit targets 180–250 km
away.45 Modern ASCMs are difficult to detect and shoot down, even for sophis-
ticated warships such as Kolkata- and Visakhapatnam-class destroyers, which
would be part of an Indian carrier force. The introduction of the supersonic and
standoff CM-400 AKG into Pakistani service would complicate the protection of
an Indian CBG.
While the Indian carrier would be vulnerable to the aforementioned threats
while enforcing a blockade of Pakistan, at least it would be free to exploit its
mobility to evade detection and attack on the high seas. In contrast, operations
against land targets would render Indian carriers even more exposed to attack.
First, the relatively short legs of carrier-based aircraft mean that the carrier would
have to operate closer to the enemy coastline, making it more vulnerable to A2/
AD threats. Pakistan also can bring more aircraft to bear on an Indian CBG
when the group operates nearer the Pakistani coast. Furthermore, the Pakistani
submarine threat would be accentuated, as SSKs are harder to detect in waters
nearer land. While the carrier could operate farther from land, this would be at
the expense of its strike-aircraft payloads.
Hence, the Indian carrier force commander would have to weigh the greater
likelihood of taking hits against the utility, if any, of attacking Pakistani targets
ashore. As discussed earlier, any such carrier-borne strike package would be
relatively limited in size and combat power. Indeed, John Mearsheimer has de-
rided naval bombardment of enemy assets ashore as “pinprick warfare,” and this
description applies well to any Indian carrier-launched attack on Pakistani land
targets.46 Given that one of the traditional rules governing the employment of
a fleet is that it should not become “decisively engaged with land forces unless
decisively superior,” the Indian CBG would be exposing itself to hits, especially
should it carry out “first day(s) of war” operations against land targets, when
Islamabad’s A2/AD complex presumably still would be intact.47
Matters are not helped by the ongoing nuclearization of the Pakistani navy—
in particular, the challenge this may pose regarding Indian naval concentration in
the event of war. Islamabad has refused to adopt a no-first-use policy on nuclear
weapons, and its navy sees nuclear arms as a means to negate Indian superiority
at sea.48 Pakistan’s naval nuclearization and its lowering of the threshold for use
of nuclear weapons could face Indian naval planners with another conundrum.
Should they concentrate their ships, as conventional naval doctrine dictates? Or
should they disperse them, so a Pakistani tactical nuclear weapon would not wipe
out, or at least incapacitate, an entire Indian naval task force in a single swoop?49
Choosing the first option would protect the Indian CBG better against Pakistan’s
A2/AD threats; choosing the second option would protect better against the
nuclear threat.
With that said, various observers have maintained that long-range missile
strikes might be one way to kick down the proverbial access-denial door before
forces less able to tolerate A2/AD threats, such as carriers, are deployed to the
area of operations.50 This argument is applicable to the American carrier strike
group (CSG), given that its Ticonderoga- and Arleigh Burke–class surface war-
ships can fire Tomahawk cruise missiles at targets nine hundred nautical miles
away.51 In stark contrast, U.S. carrier strike fighters, such as the F/A-18E/F Super
Hornet currently in service and the upcoming F-35C Lightning, have a combat
radius of five to six hundred nautical miles.52 With regard to the kicking-down-
of-the-A2/AD-door argument, the American CSG can use its Tomahawks to
breach enemy defenses during the opening stages of a conflict. The American
carrier therefore can maintain a greater distance between itself and the enemy,
then move closer in to deploy its aircraft only when it is safer to do so. The Indian
CBG, however, cannot hew to this concept of operations in the near future, as its
escort ships are armed with the relatively short-range BrahMos cruise missile. In-
dian carrier aircraft far outrange this weapon’s 290 km striking reach.53 The main-
stay of the Indian submarine force is its Kilo-class platforms, and they too lack a
long-range missile capability equivalent to that of their Russian counterparts.54
Even if they were to have such a capability, their lack of a vertical launch system
(VLS) precludes the launching of the mass missile attacks needed to overwhelm
enemy air defenses.55
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TABLE 2
Launch
Platform(s)
Name Range Speed Warhead Status
in the Indian
Navy
Notes:
ASCM = antiship cruise missile; LACM = land-attack cruise missile.
a. “BrahMos Supersonic Cruise Missile.”
b. “3M-54 Klub/SS-N-27,” GlobalSecurity.org.
c. “Uran-E,” Rosoboronexport, roe.ru/.
d. “Nirbhay.”
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its submarines, which arguably are the ideal counter-A2/AD platforms, owing to
their stealth characteristics.
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However, his words do have merit, considering that the Indian armed forces still
struggle to achieve jointness, despite having taken steps to do so. As Bernard Cole
puts it, jointness is “much more a goal than a reality.”81 In the same vein, Joshi
observes that “Indian institutions remain very far from the inter-service integra-
tion seen in other power-projecting states.”82
Sea-based aviation is more suitable for SLOC defense than its land-based
counterpart for two additional reasons. First, the loiter time of carrier planes in
the area of operations (AO) would be significantly longer, as they need not transit
from land bases.83 Indeed, having a flattop in the AO enables sustained coverage
of friendly forces at sea. To illustrate, during World War II carrier aircraft could
be back in action within a short period after combat, as the process of refueling,
rearming, and aircrew debriefing could take as little as seven minutes.84 In con-
trast, land-based aircraft would have to make a longer journey back to base after
depleting their ordnance and fuel in combat. As a corollary, owing to the longer
transit time involved in flying from airfields ashore to the AO, crew fatigue could
reduce the combat effectiveness of land-based airpower.85 To be sure, convoys
would be just as vulnerable to the threats delineated earlier; however, the aircraft
on board whichever carrier was assigned to convoy protection would be devoted
mainly to defense—hence the offense-versus-defense dilemma presented earlier
would be less acute. This would increase the survivability of the convoy.
All in all, the defense of Indian convoys in the Arabian Sea—the maritime
domain in which combat almost certainly would take place in a conflict with
Pakistan—is undertaken best by a CBG with its organic airpower, as the critical
western and northern portions of the body of water are, for the most part, bet-
ter covered by naval than by land-based aircraft. It is noteworthy that this role is
akin to that routinely performed by the unglamorous and often overshadowed
escort carriers of World War II. During the Battle of the Atlantic, such vessels of-
ten were deployed with Allied convoys to fend off attacks from German U-boats
and bombers.86 This conclusion is rather paradoxical, in that it leaves the largest
and most expensive platforms in the Indian military arsenal performing less-
prestigious defensive duties during a major war. Tellingly, the same could be said
about China’s carriers. Liaoning and the slightly more capable Type 001A that
currently is undergoing sea trials are STOBAR configured, and thus would suffer
from the small-deck carrier affliction during a high-intensity fight against a foe
of considerable A2/AD capability.87 Much like Indian carriers, the two Chinese
flattops simply do not have a large and capable enough aircraft complement to
project force like American supercarriers.88
If a fifth Indo-Pakistani war breaks out within the next several years, the Indian
aircraft carrier is likely to be of limited usefulness in offensive roles. This is
NOTES
1. Ministry of Defence (Navy) [India], Ensuring 2. Rahul Roy-Chaudhury, “Five Reasons the
Secure Seas: Indian Maritime Security Strategy, World Needs to Pay Heed to India’s New Mar-
Naval Strategic Publication 1.2 (New Delhi: itime Security Strategy,” The Wire, December
Indian Navy, 2015), available at indiannavy 22, 2015, thewire.in/. For a succinct and
.nic.in/. cogent assessment of IMMS-2015, see Greg
https://digital-commons.usnwc.edu/nwc-review/vol71/iss1/6 16
Kennedy and Harsh V. Pant, “Indian Navy’s India’s Naval Doctrine,” Journal of Defence
Maritime Security Strategy: An Assessment,” Studies 2, no. 1 (Summer 2008), pp. 98–108.
National Maritime Foundation, August 8, 10. See, for example, Iskander L. Rehman,
2016, www.maritimeindia.org/. “Tomorrow or Yesterday’s Fleet? The Indian
3. Ministry of Defence (Navy) [India], Ensuring Navy’s Operational Challenges,” in India’s
Secure Seas, p. 138. While the idea of having Naval Strategy and Asian Security, ed. Anit
a three-carrier fleet is not new, IMMS-2015 is Mukherjee and C. Raja Mohan (New York:
the first official document to delineate such a Routledge, 2015), pp. 37–64; Walter C.
force. Ladwig III, “Indian Military Modernization
4. One authoritative source defines sea control as and Conventional Deterrence in South Asia,”
“one’s ability to use a given part of the ocean/ Journal of Strategic Studies 38, no. 5 (2015),
sea and associated air(space) for military and pp. 729–72; and Clary, “Deterrence Stability
nonmilitary purposes and to deny the same and the Conventional Balance of Forces in
to the enemy in a time of open hostilities.” South Asia,” pp. 141–45.
Milan Vego, Maritime Strategy and Sea Con- 11. Rahul Roy-Chaudhury, Sea Power and
trol (Abingdon, U.K.: Routledge, 2016), p. 24; Indian Security (London: Brassey’s, 1995), pp.
Ministry of Defence (Navy) [India], Ensuring 125–28.
Secure Seas, p. 71. 12. Kyle Mizokami, “If India and Pakistan Went
5. The crux of this debate revolves around to War: 5 Weapons Pakistan Should Fear,”
whether the carrier would be useful, vulner- National Interest, August 16, 2014, available at
able, or both in the face of threats such as air- nationalinterest.org/.
craft and submarines. For a recent academic 13. See, for instance, Abhijit Singh, “Decod-
contribution to the debate, see Ben Wan Beng ing China’s Military Strategy White Paper:
Ho, “The Combat Utility of the U.S. Fleet Assessing the Maritime Implications,” IDSA
Aircraft Carrier in the Post-war Period,” Jour- Strategic Comments, Institute for Defence
nal of Military and Strategic Studies 16, no. 4 Studies and Analyses, June 2, 2015, www.idsa
(2016), pp. 67–105. .in/. China, however, has been building up
6. It is worth noting that the utility of the CBG its expeditionary forces and could possess
extends to scenarios other than that of an a competent expeditionary posture after
Indo-Pakistani war, but such cases lie outside 2025. See Oriana Skylar Mastro, “A Global
the scope of this article. Expeditionary People’s Liberation Army:
7. Shashank Joshi, Indian Power Projection: 2025–2030,” in The Chinese People’s Liberation
Ambition, Arms and Influence (London: Rout- Army in 2025, ed. Roy Kamphausen and Da-
ledge, 2016), p. 29. For the possible pathways vid Lai (Carlisle, PA: U.S. Army War College,
to war, see Christopher Clary, “Deterrence 2015), pp. 207–34.
Stability and the Conventional Balance of 14. While Vikrant should be commissioned by
Forces in South Asia,” in Deterrence Stability then, it reportedly will not be combat ready
and Escalation Control in South Asia, ed. Mi- until 2023, when its surface-to-air missile
chael Krepon and Julia Thompson (Washing- system and Russian aviation complex will be
ton, DC: Stimson, 2013), pp. 138–41. operational. See Rajat Pandit, “India without
8. Shawn Show, “17 Indian Soldiers Killed in Aircraft Carrier for 8 Months,” Times of India,
Kashmir: India-Pakistan Tensions Heating July 27, 2016, available at timesofindia
Up,” The Diplomat, September 19, 2016, avail- .indiatimes.com/. India also intends to build
able at thediplomat.com/; Shawn Show, “Is a third and much larger carrier, provision-
India Capable of a Surgical Strike in Pakistan ally named Vishal. The 65,000-ton platform
Controlled Kashmir?,” The Diplomat, Septem- with an aircraft complement of fifty to sixty
ber 30, 2016, available at thediplomat.com/. is slated to be delivered in the mid-2020s, but
it is anybody’s guess when specifically this
9. See, for instance, Dean Mathew, “Aircraft will be, given that the Vishal program is still
Carriers: An Indian Introspection,” Strategic in the conceptual stage, and also given India’s
Analysis 23, no. 12 (2000), pp. 2135–58, and checkered history of naval shipbuilding.
Gurpreet S. Khurana, “Aircraft Carriers and
15. In stark contrast, American large-deck car- 24. “AV-8B Harrier Operations,” GlobalSecurity
riers of the Nimitz and Ford classes have dis- .org.
placements of about one hundred thousand 25. Ibid.
tons and air wings of over seventy aircraft
apiece. 26. Galrahn, “The Monster Myths of the CVL
Concept,” U.S. Naval Institute [blog], August
16. Ministry of Defence (Navy) [India], Ensuring 27, 2009, blog.usni.org/.
Secure Seas, p. 162.
27. Vivek Raghuvanshi, “Report: India’s Russian-
17. Ibid., pp. 60–75. According to IMMS-2015, Made MiG-29K Fighters Face Problems,”
“[a]ircraft carriers are central to fleet opera- Defense News, August 10, 2016, available at
tions and the concept of sea control, as they www.defensenews.com/.
offer flexibility and versatility of a very high
order.” Ibid., p. 162. 28. Robert C. Rubel [Capt., USN (Ret.)], “Show
of Force—or Just for Show?,” U.S. Naval Insti-
18. Ministry of Defence (Navy) [India], Indian tute Proceedings 139/4/1,322 (April 2013),
Maritime Doctrine, Naval Strategic Publica- p. 17.
tion 1.1 (New Delhi: Indian Navy, 2009),
p. 125. 29. To illustrate, given that the SPADA 2000
surface-to-air missile launcher currently
19. Muhammad Azam Khan [Cdr., PN (Ret.)], in Pakistani service can track one hundred
“India’s Cold Start Is Too Hot,” U.S. Naval In- and engage four targets at any one time, a
stitute Proceedings 137/3/1,297 (March 2011), saturation attack stands a higher chance of
p. 45. For a good overview of the Cold Start overwhelming the defense put up by an entire
doctrine, see Walter C. Ladwig III, “A Cold SPADA 2000 battery. “Spada 2000 Air De-
Start for Hot Wars? The Indian Army’s New fence Missile System, Italy,” army-technology
Limited War Doctrine,” International Security .com.
32, no. 3 (Winter 2007/2008), pp. 158–90.
30. Joshi, Indian Power Projection, p. 63.
20. Roy-Chaudhury, Sea Power and Indian Secu-
rity, p. 128. James R. Holmes and his coau- 31. Ibid. Carrier aircraft generally have shorter
thors also believe that in a future showdown “legs” than their land-based counterparts.
with Pakistan the Indian navy will carry out There is serious concern within the U.S.
land-attack and maritime-strike missions. defense community that the increasing reach
James R. Holmes, Andrew C. Winner, and of land-based A2/AD capabilities, coupled
Toshi Yoshihara, Indian Naval Strategy in the with the decreasing range of American naval
Twenty-First Century (New York: Routledge, aircraft, threatens the U.S. supercarrier’s
2009), p. 151. Similarly, a retired Pakistani viability in its force-projection role against
naval officer has opined that the Indian navy near-peer competitors. For a comprehensive
will provide aerial support for the Indian discussion of this issue, see Jerry Hendrix, Re-
army’s integrated battle groups and blockade treat from Range: The Rise and Fall of Carrier
Pakistani ports during any cold-start opera- Aviation (Washington, DC: Center for a New
tion; see Khan, “India’s Cold Start Is Too Hot,” American Security, 2015).
p. 45. 32. For a definitive account of the aerial and
21. Mathew, “Aircraft Carriers,” p. 2156. naval campaigns of the Falklands War, see
Sandy Woodward [Adm., RN], One Hundred
22. This figure is exclusive of the cost of the air Days: The Memoirs of the Falklands Battle
wing and weapon systems, as laid out in Group Commander (Annapolis, MD: U.S.
“Vikrant-Class Indigenous Aircraft Car- Naval Institute Press, 1992).
rier (IAC),” GlobalSecurity.org, and “INS
Vikrant: India’s New Carrier,” Defense Indus- 33. Walter C. Ladwig III, “Drivers of Indian
try Daily, December 10, 2015, available at Naval Expansion,” in The Rise of the Indian
www.defenseindustrydaily.com/. Navy: Internal Vulnerabilities, External Chal-
lenges, ed. Harsh V. Pant (London: Routledge,
23. Benjamin S. Lambeth, American Carrier Air 2016), pp. 33–34.
Power at the Dawn of a New Century (Santa
Monica, CA: RAND, 2005), p. 102. 34. Ibid., p. 33.
https://digital-commons.usnwc.edu/nwc-review/vol71/iss1/6 18
35. Rehman notes that India’s navy would be hard 48. Iskander Rehman, Murky Waters: Naval
put to maintain a carrier-centric force while Nuclear Dynamics in the Indian Ocean
pursuing nuclearization. Iskander Rehman, (Washington, DC: Carnegie Endowment for
“Drowning Stability: The Perils of Naval International Peace, 2015), p. 20.
Nuclearization and Brinkmanship in the 49. Ibid., p. 39.
Indian Ocean,” Naval War College Review 65,
no. 4 (Autumn 2012), p. 68. 50. See, for instance, Ben Wan Beng Ho,
“Opinion: It’s Time to Rethink U.S. Carrier
36. Joshi, Indian Power Projection, pp. 62–63. CONOPS,” USNI News, May 24, 2016, news
37. Geoffrey Till, Seapower: A Guide for the .usni.org/.
Twenty-First Century (London: Frank Cass, 51. Ibid.
2004), p. 235.
52. Ibid.
38. Rehman, “Tomorrow or Yesterday’s Fleet?,”
p. 51. 53. “BrahMos Supersonic Cruise Missile,” Brah-
Mos Aerospace, www.brahmos.com/.
39. Ministry of Defence (Navy) [India], Ensuring
Secure Seas, p. 61. 54. India’s Kilo-class SSKs are armed with the
Club cruise missile that can hit targets up to
40. Roy-Chaudhury, Sea Power and Indian Secu- 220 km away. In contrast, Russian Kilos are
rity, p. 74. armed with the Club variant that has a range
41. Ibid., p. 72. of over two thousand kilometers.
42. The Pakistani navy has a total of six frigates 55. Without a VLS, Indian submarines would
and eight patrol craft armed with ASCMs. have to fire missiles from their torpedo tubes.
International Institute of Strategic Studies The Kilo, for instance, has six torpedo tubes,
[hereafter IISS], The Military Balance 2017 which means that the most missiles it can
(London: Routledge, 2017), p. 321. launch at any one time is five, as it is prudent
43. The Pakistani submarine threat will loom to have at least one torpedo ready for firing
even larger when Islamabad receives eight should an enemy submarine appear.
Chinese export-version Yuan-class SSKs 56. For a discussion of the utility of carriers in
over the next decade. See Franz-Stefan Gady, the “soft power”–projection mode, see Abhijit
“China to Supply Pakistan with 8 New Stealth Singh, “INS Vikramaditya—Deployment Op-
Attack Submarines by 2028,” The Diplomat, tions for India,” IDSA Issue Briefs, Institute
August 30, 2016, available at thediplomat for Defence Studies and Analyses, January 21,
.com/. 2014, www.idsa.in/.
44. Admittedly, Pakistan also has seven P-3 57. Quoted in Ajai Shukla, “India’s Navy: Strong
Orion maritime patrol aircraft (MPAs) that on Aircraft Carriers, Short of Submarines,”
can tote Harpoon ASCMs, as well as three At- Business Standard, September 30, 2014, www
lantic MPAs that can be armed with Exocets. .business-standard.com/.
However, being turboprop aircraft, they are 58. Andrew T. Ross and James M. Sandison, A
slow moving and would be highly exposed in Historical Appreciation of the Contribution of
a nonpermissive operating environment. Naval Airpower (Canberra: Sea Power Centre,
45. Jeffrey Lin and P. W. Singer, “China’s Military 2008), p. 73.
Reboots ‘Fierce Dragon’ Jet Fighter with 59. During the first few months of 1942, Ameri-
Homebuilt Model,” Popular Science, January can carrier task forces executed hit-and-run
22, 2015, available at www.popsci.com/; raids on Japanese-held islands in the central
Rehman, “Tomorrow or Yesterday’s Fleet?,” Pacific, such as Wake and the Marshalls.
p. 43. While the material damage they inflicted
46. John J. Mearsheimer, The Tragedy of Great was limited, these raids were a significant
Power Politics, updated ed. (New York: W. W. morale booster in the dark days after Pearl
Norton, 2014), p. 89. Harbor. For a good account of the exploits of
47. Robert C. Rubel, “The Future of Aircraft U.S. carrier forces during the early months
Carriers,” Naval War College Review 64, no. 4 of the Pacific War, see Samuel Eliot Morison,
(Autumn 2011), p. 17. History of United States Naval Operations in
World War II, vol. 3, The Rising Sun in the Pa- 71. “Ka-31 Radar Picket Airborne Early Warning
cific, 1931–April 1942 (Boston: Little, Brown, (AEW) Helicopter, Russia,” airforce-technology
1948). .com.
60. Philip E. Pournelle [Cdr., USN], “The Rise 72. Ibid.
of the Missile Carriers,” U.S. Naval Institute 73. To be sure, rotary-wing AEW assets are
Proceedings 139/5/1,323 (May 2013), p. 34. simply not as capable as their fixed-wing
61. Andrew F. Krepinevich, Maritime Competi- counterparts, but what the Ka-31 offers in
tion in a Mature Precision-Strike Regime terms of sensory coverage is still a profound
(Washington, DC: Center for Strategic and improvement over shipborne radars, which
Budgetary Assessments, 2015), pp. 4–5. typically can detect targets only a few dozen
62. Rehman, “Tomorrow or Yesterday’s Fleet?,” kilometers away, owing to Earth’s curvature.
pp. 53–54. 74. “Ka-27/28 and Ka-29 Helix, Russia,”
63. Dipanjan Roy Chaudhury and Manu Pubby, naval-technology.com.
“MTCR Benefit: India, Russia to Develop 75. Arun Prakash [Capt., IN], “A Carrier Force
600-km Range Cruise Missiles That Can for the Indian Navy,” Naval War College
Cover Entire Pakistan,” Economic Times, Review 43, no. 4 (Autumn 1990), p. 63.
October 19, 2016, economictimes.indiatimes 76. Ross and Sandison, A Historical Appreciation
.com/. of the Contribution of Naval Airpower, p. 63.
64. “Nirbhay,” Missile Threat, missilethreat.csis 77. This is the area where Pakistan would be
.org/. The Indian navy also possesses the nearest to the convoy. The author derived this
Dhanush short-range ballistic missile that has figure using Google Maps.
an antiship capability, but this weapon cur-
rently is not deployed on India’s major surface 78. Ashley J. Tellis, Making Waves: Aiding India’s
combatants. With a 350 kg warhead, the Next-Generation Aircraft Carrier (Washing-
Dhanush can hit targets a thousand kilo- ton, DC: Carnegie Endowment for Interna-
meters away. See “Indian Navy Successfully tional Peace, 2015), p. 6.
Test Fires Dhanush Missile: All You Need 79. IISS, The Military Balance 2017, p. 293.
to Know,” India Today, November 26, 2015,
80. Prakash, “A Carrier Force for the Indian
available at indiatoday.intoday.in/.
Navy,” p. 63.
65. Ladwig makes this argument as well, writing
81. Bernard D. Cole [Capt., USN (Ret.)], Asian
that India’s decision to acquire medium-sized,
Maritime Strategies: Navigating Troubled
rather than large, carriers is suggestive of
Waters (Annapolis, MD: Naval Institute Press,
New Delhi’s view that these platforms should
2013), p. 147.
make SLOC protection their priority. Ladwig,
“Drivers of Indian Naval Expansion,” p. 37. 82. Joshi, Indian Power Projection, pp. 99–100.
See also Vinod Anand, “Evolution of Joint-
66. IMMS-2015 states unequivocally that it
ness in Indian Defence Forces: Stuck between
places a greater emphasis on “[t]he safety and
the Services,” in Handbook of Indian Defence
security of seaborne trade and energy routes,
Policy: Themes, Structures and Doctrines, ed.
especially in the IOR [Indian Ocean region],
Harsh V. Pant (New York: Routledge, 2015),
considering their effect on global economies
pp. 173–86, and Anit Mukherjee, “Fighting
and India’s national interests.” Ministry of
Separately: Jointness and Civil-Military Rela-
Defence (Navy) [India], Ensuring Secure Seas,
tions in India,” Journal of Strategic Studies 40,
p. 6.
nos. 1–2 (2017), pp. 1–29.
67. Ibid., p. 25.
83. Khurana, “Aircraft Carriers and India’s Naval
68. “India Continues Developing Its Strategic Doctrine,” p. 102.
Petroleum Reserve as Its Oil Imports Grow,”
84. Ross and Sandison, A Historical Appreciation
U.S. Energy Information Administration, July
of the Contribution of Naval Airpower, p. 65.
19, 2016, www.eia.gov/.
85. Ibid.
69. Rehman, “Tomorrow or Yesterday’s Fleet?,”
p. 41. 86. For a definitive account of this subject, see
William T. Y’Blood, Hunter-Killer: U.S. Escort
70. Ibid.
https://digital-commons.usnwc.edu/nwc-review/vol71/iss1/6 20
Carriers in the Battle of the Atlantic (Annapo- China’s Second Aircraft Carrier?,” China-
lis, MD: Naval Institute Press, 2012). Power, chinapower.csis.org/. Commenting on
87. Indian carriers are, however, more vulner- Liaoning, a number of defense experts con-
able to A2/AD threats during a high-intensity tend that it will “confer prestige on a rising
confrontation compared with their Chinese great power, help the Chinese military master
counterparts owing to geography. Any such basic procedures, and project a bit of power
conflict involving China most likely will [emphasis added]—perhaps especially against
break out over Taiwan, with Chinese carriers the smaller neighbors on the periphery of
operating well within the defensive umbrella the South China Sea.” Andrew S. Erickson,
provided by land-based airpower from the Abraham M. Denmark, and Gabriel Collins,
mainland—the Taiwan Strait separating the “Beijing’s ‘Starter Carrier’ and Future Steps:
two sides spans only 180 km. On the other Alternatives and Implications,” Naval War
hand, the entirety of southern Pakistan sits College Review 65, no. 1 (Winter 2012), p. 28.
astride the Arabian Sea AO, and any Indian 89. Mathew, “Aircraft Carriers,” p. 2149.
air force assets providing air cover for their 90. Quoted in Martin van Creveld, The Age of
brethren at sea would have to grapple with Airpower (New York: PublicAffairs, 2011),
the full gamut of Pakistani resistance along p. 167.
the coast as well as the “tyranny of distance.”
91. One commentator even describes the U.S.
88. It is believed that the Type 001A carrier supercarrier as a “flat-track bully that domi-
can deploy perhaps a handful more aircraft nates an inferior adversary who cannot really
compared with Liaoning’s thirty-odd-strong fight back.” Ho, “The Combat Utility of the
air wing. “What Do We Know (So Far) about U.S. Fleet Aircraft Carrier,” p. 82.