KEC Result Updated
KEC Result Updated
KEC Result Updated
KEC International
Performance Highlights
` cr Revenue EBITDA EBITDA margin (%) Adj.PAT Source: Company, Angel Research 2QFY12 1,263 90.6 7.2 21.7 2QFY11 1,001 100.8 10.1 48.5 % chg (yoy) 26.2 (10.2) (291)bp (55.2) 1QFY12 1,023 96.0 9.4 33.1 % chg (qoq) 23.5 (5.7) (222)bp (34.3)
NEUTRAL
CMP Target Price
Investment Period
Stock Info Sector Market Cap (` cr) Beta 52 Week High / Low Avg. Daily Volume Face Value (`) BSE Sensex Nifty Reuters Code Bloomberg Code Capital Goods 1,473 0.7 109/55 200,055 2.0 17,805 5,630 KECL.BO KECI IN
`57 -
KEC Internationals (KEC) 2QFY2012 results exceeded ours and streets expectations on the top-line front, but the companys performance was very disappointing on the bottom-line front. Order inflow for the quarter totaled `1,200cr and order backlog stood at `8,450cr. We have lowered our earnings estimates by 30.0%/26.7% for FY2012E/FY2013E, respectively, to factor in the margin contraction and changed business environment. We downgrade the stocks rating to Neutral. Strong execution continues; margin contraction a surprise: Consolidated revenue grew by 26.2% yoy to `1,263cr (`1,001cr), higher than ours and streets estimates. On the EBITDAM front, KEC witnessed a steep contraction to 7.2% mainly due to high raw-material prices, problems in regions such as Egypt and Libya, and execution of low-margin orders. Further, higher interest cost and tax incidence dragged down KECs earnings (adjusted), leading to a 55.2% yoy dip to `21.7cr. Outlook and valuation: The overall slowdown in the power sector has left transmission EPC companies to reel under pressure. In addition, competition has intensified on the domestic front, thereby leading to pricing pressures. This is the first time KEC has witnessed a sharp margin contraction, which we believe is here to stay in the coming quarters as well, given its reflection of stress in the business environment, and thereby putting pressure on earnings growth. Further, lack of positive news flows (read sector related) would keep the stock rise under check. Notably, KECs stock has fallen by ~28% and underperformed the BSE Sensex by ~24% over the last three months. At the CMP of `57, the stock trades 8.4x and 6.2x, FY2012E and FY2013E, EPS, respectively. Despite attractive valuations, we downgrade the stocks rating to Neutral with a fair value of `56. Key financials (Consolidated)
Y/E March (` cr) Net sales % chg PAT % chg EBITDA (%) EPS (`) P/E (x) P/BV (x) RoE (%) RoCE (%) EV/Sales (x) EV/EBITDA (x)
Source: Company, Angel Research
Shareholding Pattern (%) Promoters MF / Banks / Indian Fls FII / NRIs / OCBs Indian Public / Others 41.8 43.2 3.6 11.4
3m
1yr
FY2010
3,907 13.9 190.7 4.9 10.4 7.7 7.4 1.9 44.4 32.3 0.5 5.2
FY2011
4,473 14.5 205.3 4.6 10.3 8.0 7.2 1.6 34.7 24.1 0.6 5.9
FY2012E
5,431 21.4 176.4 3.2 8.6 6.9 8.4 1.4 25.3 17.7 0.6 6.8
FY2013E
6,385 17.6 238.1 3.7 9.0 9.3 6.2 1.2 27.4 18.8 0.5 5.6
Shailesh.kanani
+91 22 3935 7800 Ext: 6829 [email protected]
Hemang Thaker
+91 22 3935 7800 Ext: 6817 [email protected]
2QFY12 1,263 1,263 (21.6) 699.0 53.6 230.8 18.3 107.8 8.5 156.6 12.4 1,173 90.6 7.2 37.6 12.1 40.8 3.2 18.6 45.6 21.2 1.7 1.0 21.7 0.85
2QFY11 1,000 0.6 1,001 (76.5) 597.3 52.0 189.2 18.9 58.4 5.8 131.5 13.1 899.8 119.4 10.1 20.4 9.0 71.5 7.1 20.3 28.4 42.7 4.8 8.5 48.5 1.89
% chg (yoy) 26.3 26.2 17.0 22.0 84.5 19.1 30.3 (24.2) 84.6 35.0 (42.9) (8.1) (50.3)
1QFY12 1,023 1,023 (29.8) 505.5 46.5 241.9 23.7 97.2 9.5 112.0 11.0 926.9 96.0 9.4 33.2 11.7 51.1 5.0 18.1 35.3 33.1 3.2 0.0
1HFY12 2,286 0.6 2,286 (51.4) 1,205 50.5 472.8 20.7 205.0 9.0 268.6 11.8 2,100
1HFY11 1,846 0.6 1,846 (105.5) 1,040 50.6 398.5 21.6 106.4 5.8 221.9 12.0 1,661 185.3 10.0 46.8 17.6 120.9 6.5 43 35.8 69.1 6.6 8.5 74.8 2.9
% chg (yoy) 23.8 23.8 15.8 18.6 92.6 21.1 26.4 0.7 51.3 35.2 (23.9) (15.3) 11.3 (21.4)
186.6 8.2 70.8 23.8 91.9 4.0 37 39.9 54.3 4.5 1.0
(55.2) (55.2)
33.1 1.3
(34.3) (34.3)
54.8 2.1
(26.8) (26.8)
(` cr)
2QFY09
3QFY09
4QFY09
1QFY10
2QFY10
3QFY10
4QFY10
1QFY11
2QFY11
3QFY11
4QFY11
1QFY12
4QFY11
1QFY12
2QFY12
8.6 5.3
108 72 36 0
2QFY10
3QFY10
4QFY10
1QFY11
2QFY11
3QFY11
4QFY11
1QFY12
2QFY12
2QFY12
High interest cost drags down bottom-line growth: Interest cost grew
by 13.3% qoq to 37.6cr (`33.2cr) mainly due increased working capital borrowings. High interest cost and tax incidence (45.6%) along with lower EBITDA let to a 50.3% yoy decline in PAT to 21.7cr, 55.4% below our estimate of `48.7cr.
2QFY09
3QFY09
4QFY09
1QFY10
2QFY10
3QFY10
4QFY10
1QFY11
2QFY11
3QFY11
4QFY11
1QFY12
Order book remains strong: Despite a tough environment, KEC has registered
decent order inflow, mainly advantaged by its diversified presence. Order intake for the quarter totaled `1,200cr. Key orders received include: 1) Two transmission line orders from private sector customers (`108cr) 2) Transmission line order from Ethiopia (`200cr) 3) Tower supply orders through SAE Towers (`180cr) 4) Power and telecom cables supply orders (`186cr) Order backlog at the end of the quarter stood at `8,450cr, split across transmission (68.8%), power systems (23.4%), railways (4.4%), cables (1.8%) and telecom and waters (1.3%). Geographically, order backlog was spread across South Asia (42.4%), MENA (13.9%), Americas, (19.4%) and Central Asia and Africa (24%).
(` cr)
Transmission 1,977 5,814 Power Systems Cables Railways Telecom & Water
1QFY09
2QFY09
3QFY09
4QFY09
1QFY10
2QFY10
3QFY10
4QFY10
1QFY11
2QFY11
3QFY11
4QFY11
1QFY12
2QFY12
2QFY12
Investment arguments
Outlook and valuation: The overall slowdown in the power sector has left transmission EPC companies to reel under pressure. In addition, competition has intensified on the domestic front, thereby leading to pricing pressures. This is the first time KEC has witnessed a sharp margin contraction, which we believe is here to stay in the coming quarters as well, given its reflection of stress in the business environment, and thereby putting pressure on earnings growth. Further, lack of positive news flows (read sector related) would keep the stock rise under check. Notably, KECc stock has fallen by ~28% and underperformed the BSE Sensex by ~24% over the last three months. At the CMP of `57, the stock trades 8.4x and 6.2x, FY2012E and FY2013E, EPS, respectively. Despite attractive valuations, we downgrade the stocks rating to Neutral with a fair value of `56. Change in estimates: We slightly tweak our FY2012E and FY2013E, factoring in the companys strong project execution. However, we have lowered our earnings estimates by 30.0%/26.7% for FY2012E/FY2013E, respectively, to factor in the margin contraction amid a changed business environment.
FY2013E Var. (%) 3.1 (17.2) (30.0) Earlier estimates 6,293 692.0 325.0 Revised estimates 6,385 574.7 238.1 Var. (%) 1.5 (17.0) (26.7) 5,431 467.1 176.4
Revised estimates
6x
10x
14x
20x
Key Ratios
Y/E March Valuation Ratio (x) P/E (on FDEPS) P/CEPS P/BV Dividend yield (%) EV/Sales EV/EBITDA EV / Total Assets OB/Sales Per Share Data (`) EPS (Basic) EPS (fully diluted) Cash EPS DPS Book Value DuPont Analysis (%) EBIT margin Tax retention ratio (%) Asset turnover (x) RoIC (Pre-tax) RoIC (Post-tax) Cost of Debt (Post Tax) Leverage (x) Operating ROE Returns (%) RoCE (Pre-tax) Angel RoIC (Pre-tax) RoE Turnover ratios (x) Asset Turnover (Gross Block) (X) Inventory / Sales (days) Receivables (days) Payables (days) WC cycle (ex-cash) (days) Solvency ratios (x) Net debt to Equity Net debt to EBITDA Interest Coverage 2.5 1.5 4.9 1.6 1.6 2.8 1.3 1.8 4.4 2.0 2.7 3.9 2.2 3.6 2.8 1.8 3.0 3.1 5.7 23 151 164 53 6.0 23 175 181 58 5.3 22 179 186 62 5.6 24 187 180 81 6.4 29 193 179 92 6.2 30 193 178 93 51.3 53.8 142.7 31.3 34.1 46.7 32.3 35.2 44.4 24.1 25.7 34.7 17.7 18.7 25.3 18.8 19.7 27.4 11.8 66.2 4.5 52.8 35.0 9.2 3.6 128.1 8.1 65.8 4.0 32.7 21.5 10.8 2.0 42.4 9.7 64.8 3.5 33.8 21.9 8.0 1.4 41.3 9.4 64.9 2.7 25.1 16.3 6.3 1.7 33.1 7.7 65.0 2.4 18.4 12.0 6.0 2.1 24.5 8.1 67.0 2.4 19.4 13.0 6.0 2.0 26.7 7.1 7.1 8.1 1.0 16.7 4.8 4.8 5.8 1.0 20.1 7.7 7.7 8.8 1.2 29.8 8.0 8.0 9.6 1.2 35.4 6.9 6.9 8.8 1.2 40.8 9.3 9.3 11.5 1.2 48.7 8.0 7.0 3.4 1.7 0.7 5.4 2.4 1.5 11.9 10.0 2.8 1.7 0.6 6.3 2.0 1.5 7.4 6.5 1.9 2.1 0.5 5.2 1.5 1.4 7.2 6.0 1.6 2.1 0.6 5.9 1.3 1.7 8.4 6.5 1.4 2.1 0.6 6.8 1.2 1.5 6.2 5.0 1.2 2.1 0.5 5.6 1.1 1.4 FY2008 FY2009 FY2010 FY2011E FY2012E FY2013E
10
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Disclosure of Interest Statement 1. Analyst ownership of the stock 2. Angel and its Group companies ownership of the stock 3. Angel and its Group companies' Directors ownership of the stock 4. Broking relationship with company covered
KEC International No No No No
Note: We have not considered any Exposure below `1 lakh for Angel, its Group companies and Directors.
Ratings (Returns):
11