Finolex Cables, 1Q FY 2014
Finolex Cables, 1Q FY 2014
Finolex Cables, 1Q FY 2014
Finolex Cables
Worst is behind now
Y/E March (` cr) Total operating income EBITDA EBITDA Margin (%) Adj. PAT
Source: Company, Angel Research
BUY
CMP Target Price
4QFY13 632 67 10.5 39 % chg (qoq) (12.4) (22.9) (127)bp (13.0) 1QFY13 518 49 9.4 25 % chg (yoy) 6.9 5.2 (15)bp 35.1
`55 `68
12 Months
Investment Period
Stock Info Sector Market Cap (` cr) Net Debt Beta 52 Week High / Low Avg. Daily Volume Face Value (`) BSE Sensex Nifty Reuters Code Bloomberg Code
Power-Cables 834 (202.0) 0.9 66/32 102,815 2 18,789 5,566 FNXC.BO FNXC.IN
Finolex Cables Ltd (FCL) reported a mixed set of numbers for 1QFY2014. Its top-line reported a flat yoy growth of 6.9% to `554cr, as compared to our estimate of `585cr. The EBITDA came in higher by 5.2% yoy to `51cr, in-line with our estimate of `52cr. The EBITDA margin was down marginally by 15bp on a yoy basis to 9.3%. Nevertheless the Adjusted PAT soared by a whopping 35.1% yoy to `34cr vis--vis our estimate of `28cr, aided by other income of `7.7cr (higher by 338% yoy). The PAT margin too expanded from 4.8% in 1QFY2013 to 6.1% in the current quarter. Revival in user industries to drive growth: FCL serves varied user industries, considering the wide usage of cables. With customers increasingly demanding high-quality and branded wires, FCL is poised to grow. The company, with its wide distribution reach and penetration in the market, is well placed to meet increase in demand. Further, we expect the companys initiatives like- 1) increase in advertisement spends 2) setting up of a solar power plant for captive consumption, 3) additions to product portfolio and 4) reduction in sale of copper rods to third party, to boost its top-line and enhance profitability going forward. Outlook and valuation: We expect the companys sales to post an 13.0% CAGR over FY201315E to `2,899cr, and EBITDA to register a CAGR of 11.6% over the same period with margin at 9.8% in FY2015E. However, PAT is expected to post a CAGR of 9.0% over the same period owing to closure of the derivatives contracts (included in exceptional items). At the current market price, FCL is available at an attractive valuation of 4.8x PE for FY2015E. We maintain our Buy recommendation on the stock with a target price of `68 based on target PE of 6x for FY2015E earnings.
Shareholding Pattern (%) Promoters MF / Banks / Indian Fls FII / NRIs / OCBs Indian Public / Others 35.8 10.5 22.0 31.7
3m (5.8) (2.0)
Key financials
Y/E March (` cr) Net Sales % chg Net Profit % chg EBITDA Margin (%) FDEPS (`) P/E (x) P/BV (x) RoE (%) RoCE (%) EV/Sales (x) EV/EBITDA (x) FY2011 2,036 25.8 87 50.7 7.5 5.7 9.6 1.2 12.1 20.9 0.3 4.0 FY2012 2,064 1.4 98 13.0 8.5 6.4 8.5 1.0 12.3 18.7 0.3 4.0 FY2013 2,270 10.0 145 47.9 10.1 9.5 5.7 0.9 15.7 22.5 0.3 2.8 FY2014E 2,563 12.9 154 6.0 9.8 10.1 5.4 0.8 14.3 22.2 0.2 2.5 FY2015E 2,899 13.1 173 12.1 9.8 11.3 4.8 0.7 13.8 23.1 0.2 2.0
Twinkle Gosar
+91 22 3935 7800 Ext: 6848 [email protected]
553.8
417.2
632.1
465.9
(12.4)
(10.4) (12.4) (15.3) (11.2)
518.0
378.0
6.9
10.4 14.3 (12.4) 7.1
2,270.1
1,688.6
2,063.9
1,568.5
10.0
7.7 21.7 6.7 8.1
75.3
22.5
73.7
25.7
73.0
19.7
74.4
84.6
76.0
69.5
4.1
62.7
4.1
74.0
3.8
71.6
3.7
268.1
3.4
251.3
11.3
502.4
11.7
565.6
13.8
469.2
11.8
2,041.3
12.2
1,889.2
51.3
9.3
66.6
10.5
(22.9)
(127)bp
48.8
9.4
5.2
(15)bp
228.8
10.1
174.8
8.5
30.9
161bp
3.5
11.4
4.2
14.6
(17.6)
(21.8)
3.5
10.5
(0.3)
8.3
12.6
46.6
26.1
39.5
(51.7)
18.1
7.7
44.1
6.6
54.4
16.7
(18.8) (4.8) 38.3 (13.0)
1.8
36.5
337.5
20.9 46.9 106.4 35.1
24.2
193.8
36.4
145.6
(33.6)
33.1 56.3 130.5 47.9
0.0
44.1
8.0
46.4
6.5
30.1
23.0
170.8
36.4
109.3
8.0
10.3
7.3
7.4
5.8
5.0
7.5
25.5
5.3
11.1
23.2
33.9
16.0
39.0
16.5
25.1
15.0
145.2
10.1
98.2
6.1
6.2
4.8
6.4
4.8
( ` cr)
( ` cr)
300 200
(%)
5 0
30 20 10 0
461
499
499
605
518
586
534
632
34
40
44
58
49
71
43
67
51
100 -
554
(5) (10)
1QFY12
2QFY12
3QFY12
4QFY12
1QFY13
2QFY13
3QFY13
4QFY13
1QFY12
2QFY12
3QFY12
4QFY12
1QFY13
2QFY13
3QFY13
4QFY13
1QFY14
Revenue (LHS)
EBITDA (LHS)
1QFY14
(%)
400
40
Segment-wise performance
For 4QFY2013, the electrical cables segment reported a flat yoy growth of 3.9% in sales to `474cr. The contribution of the segment stands at 85.7% as in 1QFY2014 vis--vis 88.1% in 1QFY2013. The EBIT for the segment came in at `52cr (`55cr in 1QFY2013), 6.1% lower yoy while EBIT margin lower by 117bp yoy to 10.9%. The communication cables segment posted a strong growth of 26.0% yoy in its top-line, with sales of `47cr (`38cr in 1QFY2013) and contributed 8.6% to the total revenue. The margin of the segment expanded significantly by 439bp yoy to 12.2% from 7.8% in the same quarter previous year. The continuous copper rods (CCC rods) segment reported a decline of 16.2% in its top-line to `20cr (`24cr in 1QFY2013) during the quarter. The segments contribution has been declining gradually since the company is reducing its exposure to third parties owing to thin margins. The EBIT for the segment came in at `1.6cr, while margin stood at 8.1%, 748bp higher yoy.
1QFY13 % chg (qoq) % chg (yoy) 456 38 24 40 518 12.1 7.8 0.7 (2.5) (13.1) (5.8) (43.6) (78.2) (12.4) (bp chg) (278) (127) 497 (9,731) (117) 439 748 (9,552) 3.9 26.0 (16.2) (70.3) 6.9
Investment arguments
Capex plans to complement rising demand
FCL has its manufacturing facilities located at Pune, Goa and Roorkee. Excluding the older plants, the new plants with updated technology have been operating optimally at ~85-90% capacity utilisation. With customers increasingly demanding high-quality and branded wires, FCL is poised to grow. The company, with its wide distribution reach and penetration in the market, is well placed to meet increase in demand. The company has planned a total capex of ~`100cr over the next 18 months (~`40-50cr in FY2013E) to double its capacity at Roorkee plant so as to support rising demand. The same will lead to top-line growth for the company. Moreover, FCL has expanded its capacity at Urse and Goa from 6,000 km-amonth to 8,000 km (further to 10,000) in order to service its tender for the National Optic Fibre Network project to connect all village panchayats (4,00,000cable km project that can go up to even 8,00,000 km).
Financials
Exhibit 6: Key Assumptions
Particulars (%) Total Sales Growth Finished Products Volume growth Electrical cables Telephone Cables-Jelly Filled Optical Fibre Cables Continuous Cast Copper Rod Realisation growth Electrical cables Telephone Cables-Jelly Filled Optical Fibre Cables Continuous Cast Copper Rod Raw Material Volume growth Realisation growth
Source: Company, Angel Research
FY2014E 12.9
FY2015E 13.1
1,500 1,000
( ` cr)
( ` cr)
(%)
2,000
1,619
2,036
2,064
2,270
2,563
2,899
500 -
5 0
280 94 FY2014E
308 85 FY2015E
FY2010
FY2011
FY2012
FY2013
FY2014E
FY2015E
FY2012
Electrical cables
Communication
CCC rods
Revenue from the Electrical cables segment is assumed to grow at a CAGR of 14.3% while the Communication cables segment (telephone jelly cables and optic fibre cables) is expected to post a CAGR of 10.3% over FY2013-15E. CCC rods (net of inter segmental) contribution is however expected to dip at a CAGR of 10.0% for the same period.
( ` cr)
( ` cr)
150 100 50 195 0 FY2010 FY2011 FY2012 FY2013 FY2014E FY2015E EBITDA (LHS) EBITDA margin (RHS) 173 175 229 250 285
6 4 2 0
(%)
(%)
Concerns
Competition from the un-organized sector is a concern since the products available from them are relatively cheaper and they thus cannibalize into market volumes. Fluctuation in the price of copper which is an essential raw material (~86% of total raw material), is a key concern as it would directly impact operational efficiency. Although prices have fallen recently, but volatility in commodity markets persists.
Competition
The cables industry, both electrical and tele-communication, is highly competitive, with co-existence of both - organised and un-organised players. FCL has a market share of ~15-20% each in the electrical and telecommunication cables segments.
154 14 26
22 11 24
(` )
Aug-10
Aug-11
Aug-12
Price
Source: Company, Angel Research
4.0x
7.5x
11.0x
14.5x
Aug-13
Feb-11
Feb-12
Feb-13
Electrical Cables
Communication Cables
Others
Copper Rods
LDEC
Copper Based
Switches
Power Cables
Traditional JFTC's
Source: Company
10
Balance sheet
Y/E March (` cr) SOURCES OF FUNDS Equity Share Capital Preference Capital Reserves& Surplus Shareholders Funds Total Loans Other Long term liability Net Deferred tax liability Total Liabilities APPLICATION OF FUNDS Gross Block Less: Acc. Depreciation Net Block Capital Work-in-Progress Goodwill Long term Loans & Adv. Investments Other non-current assets Current Assets Cash Loans & Advances Other Inventory Debtors Other current assets Current liabilities Net Current Assets Mis. Exp. not written off Total Assets 826 422 403 19 14 245 538 21 106 411 281 130 291 247 928 871 442 429 12 4 237 534 49 90 395 281 114 194 340 1,022 937 489 448 17 324 19 596 40 77 479 330 150 0.0 229 368 1,175 993 537 456 17 331 19 663 32 115 516 375 141 0.0 213 451 1,273 1,072 588 484 17 364 19 770 38 145 588 428 159 0.0 240 530 1,413 31 687 717 126 54 31 928 31 770 800 155 35 33 1,022 31 894 924 162 54 34 1,175 31 1,048 1,078 151 22 22 1,273 31 1,220 1,251 140 9 14 1,413 FY2011 FY2012 FY2013 FY2014E FY2015E
11
12
Key ratios
Y/E March Valuation Ratio (x) P/E (on FDEPS) P/CEPS P/BV Dividend yield (%) EV/Sales EV/EBITDA EV / Total Assets Per Share Data (`) EPS (Basic) EPS (fully diluted) Cash EPS DPS Book Value Dupont Analysis EBIT margin Tax retention ratio Asset turnover (x) ROIC (Post-tax) Cost of Debt (Post Tax) Leverage (x) Operating ROE Returns (%) ROCE (Pre-tax) Angel ROIC (Pre-tax) ROE Turnover ratios (x) Asset Turnover (Gross Block) Inventory / Sales (days) Receivables (days) Payables (days) WC cycle (ex-cash) (days) Solvency ratios (x) Net debt to equity Net debt to EBITDA Interest Coverage (EBIT/Int.) (0.2) (0.8) 7.0 (0.2) (0.8) 5.2 (0.2) (0.9) 14.5 (0.2) (0.8) 11.8 (0.2) (0.9) 14.6 2.5 45 18 47 37 2.4 50 16 47 37 2.4 49 16 47 53 2.6 47 16 47 60 2.7 47 16 47 62 14.5 20.9 12.1 13.2 18.7 12.3 15.5 22.5 15.7 15.9 22.2 14.3 16.5 23.1 13.8 6.6 0.8 3.2 17.0 12.3 (0.2) 16.0 6.6 0.9 2.9 16.8 15.2 (0.2) 16.5 8.0 0.9 2.8 19.1 6.6 (0.2) 16.4 7.9 0.7 2.8 16.0 8.2 (0.2) 14.5 8.1 0.7 2.9 16.6 8.2 (0.2) 14.9 25.0 25.0 28.2 0.7 46.9 6.4 6.4 9.0 0.8 52.3 9.5 9.5 12.5 0.8 60.4 10.1 10.1 13.2 0.8 70.5 11.3 11.3 14.6 0.8 81.8 9.6 6.6 1.2 1.3 0.3 4.0 0.7 8.5 6.1 1.0 1.5 0.3 4.0 0.7 5.7 4.3 0.9 0.3 2.8 0.5 5.4 4.1 0.8 0.2 2.5 0.5 4.8 3.7 0.7 0.2 2.0 0.4 FY2011 FY2012 FY2013 FY2014E FY2015E
13
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Disclosure of Interest Statement 1. Analyst ownership of the stock 2. Angel and its Group companies ownership of the stock 3. Angel and its Group companies' Directors ownership of the stock 4. Broking relationship with company covered
Finolex Cables No No No No
Note: We have not considered any Exposure below ` 1 lakh for Angel, its Group companies and Directors
Ratings (Returns):
14