Water-and-Energy Ethiopia 2015

ETHIOPIAN PANEL ON CLIMATE CHANGE
FIRST ASSESSMENT REPORT
WORKING GROUP II- CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACT,

VULNERABILITY, ADAPTATION AND MITIGATION
IV
WATER AND ENERGY
ETHIOPIAN ACADEMY OF SCIENCES

Ethiopian Academy of Sciences House No. 199, Woreda 9, Gulele Sub-city Near Commercial
Bank of Ethiopia, Gulele Branch P. O. Box: 32228 Addis, Ababa, Ethiopia
Tel: +251 112 59 57 45/50 or +251 112 59 09 43
E-mail: [email protected] or [email protected]/ epcc-offi[email protected]
Website: www.eas-et.org/ www.epcc-et.org
Financed by the SCIP Fund: The SCIP Fund is supported by DFID UK, Aid, The Royal
Norwegian Embassy and The Royal Danish Embassy
Water Sector
Lead Author: Woldeamlak Bewket (Prof.)

Authors: Solomon Gebreyohannis (PhD), Mekonnen Ayana (PhD), Mekonnen Adinew
(PhD), Tefera Arega, Belaynesh Birru
Review Editor: Tenalem Ayenew (Prof.)
Energy Sector
Lead Author: Abebayehu Assefa (Dr.-Ing)

Authors: Alemayehu Tafesse, Endale Gorfu, Sahle Tamiru, Sileshi Degefa, Belaynesh
Birru
Review Editor: Haruna Gujba (PhD)
Substantive Editor for both sectors: Seyoum Mengitou (Prof.)
© 2015 Ethiopian Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved

Printed in Addis Ababa, Ethiopia
ISBN: 978 - 99944 - 918 - 6 -5
Citation- This document may be cited as follows:
Ethiopian panel on Climate Change (2015), First Assessment Report, - Working

Group II Water and Energy, Published by the Ethiopian Academy of Sciences
About the Ethiopian Academy of Sciences
The Ethiopian Academy of Sciences (EAS) was launched in April 2010 and recognized by an act of
parliament (Proclamation No. 783/2013) as an independent institution mandated to provide, inter
alia, evidence-based policy advice to the Government of Ethiopia and other stakeholders. Its major
activities include undertaking consensus studies, conducting convening activities such as public
lectures, conferences, workshops and symposia on issues of national priority; as well as promoting
science, technology and innovation.
Acknowledgements
This book is part of the First Assessment Report of the Ethiopian Panel on
Climate Change (EPCC). The EPCC, established under the auspices of the
Ethiopian Academy of Sciences (EAS), primarily to, inter alia, produce periodic
assessments of climate change issues in Ethiopia, is a sub-project of the
“Environment Service and Climate Change Analyses Program (ESACCCAP)”
project jointly run by the Ethiopian Academy of Sciences, the Climate Science
Centre (CSC) and the Horn of Africa Regional Environment Centre and Network
(HoA-REC&N) of Addis Ababa University. The Ethiopian Academy of Sciences
gratefully acknowledges the Department for International Development
(DFID) UK, the Danish Government and the Norwegian Government for their
support to the Project through the Strategic Climate Institutions Programme
(SCIP).
The book was produced through exemplary collaboration between lead

authors, authors, reviewers and editors indicated on the publisher’s page
(copy-right page) of the book. EAS gratefully acknowledges them for their
dedicated service. The First Assessment Report has also benefited from the
validation workshop conducted on 20 and 21 November 2014. The Academy
gratefully acknowledges the participants for their input.
Masresha Fetene (Prof.)

Executive Director, Ethiopian Academy of Sciences
TABLE OF CONTENTS
Acknowledgement iii
Water Sector 1
Executive Summary 1
1. Introduction 5
2. Water Resource of Ethiopia 9
3. Observed and Projected Hydrological Varability and Changes 39
4. Adaptation and Managing Risks in Water Sector 75
5. Climate Change Mitigation Opportunities in the Water Sector 103
6. Knowledge Gaps and Research Needs and Concluding Remarks 107
References 110
Energy Sector 133
Executive Summary 135

7. Introduction 137
8. Current Energy Situation of Ethiopia 141
9. Climate Change Vulnerability of the Energy Sector and
Current Policy Measures 161
10. Adaptation and Mitigation Measures in the Energy Sector 181
11. Conclusions and Recommendations 205
12. Gaps in Knowledge and Data 209
References 211
WATER AND ENERGY SUB-WORKING GROUP
WATER SECTOR- Climate change vulnerability, impacts and
adaptation in the water resource sector of Ethiopia
Executive summary
Compared to many countries of sub-Saharan Africa, Ethiopia is endowed with

abundant water resources. The annual flow from the 12 major river basins
the country has is estimated at 124 billion meter cube (BCM). There are 11
freshwater and 9 saline lakes, 4 crater lakes and over 12 major swamps and
wetlands. The total surface area of the major natural and artificial lakes is
about 7,500 km2. This surface area is considerably larger when small lakes
and wetlands are considered. An estimated storage capacity of these major
lakes is about 95.46 BCM. In addition, estimates of the groundwater resource
of the country ranges from 2.6 BCM to 30 BCM.
All of the major rivers of the country are transboundary, and hence supply
the downstream riparian countries with the much needed fresh water. For
instance, the three major river basins (Abbay, Baro-Akobo and Tekeze), which
carry some 76% of the annual flow of the country, account for about 85% of
the Nile River waters in Egypt and Sudan.
A major challenge to water resources management in Ethiopia is the large

spatial and temporal variability, both primarily driven by climatic variability.
Mean annual rainfall varies from about 2000 mm over some pocket areas
in the southwest to less than 250 mm in the Afar lowlands in the northeast
and Ogaden in the southeast. Rainfall decreases northwards and eastwards
from those high rainfall pocket areas in the southwest. This is reflected in the
uneven distribution of surface and groundwater resources; northeastern and
eastern areas of the country have limited freshwater resources whereas the
western and southwestern parts of the country have abundant freshwater
resources. In terms of temporal distribution, some 76% of the annual flow
is concentrated in the months of July to October because of the heavy
seasonality of rainfall. The variability in water availability indicates the need
for water storage infrastructure for improved water security. The current per
capita storage of water in the country is only 160 m3 which is only 20% of
South Africa’s and 2.6% of North America’s. Because of the limited water
infrastructure in the context of the high hydrological variability, Ethiopia is
considered to be economic and technical water-scarce country. Presently, the
importance of water resources for all-round development of the country is
widely recognized; there are ambitious water-centered plans in agriculture,
energy, domestic and industrial water supply sectors.
The low level of development of water infrastructure exacerbates the

country’s vulnerability to climate change. Climate change is exacerbating the
natural hydrological variability, and hence presenting another dimension to
the challenge of water resources development and management. Although
non-climatic drivers such as land degradation, land use change and agricultural
water use play important roles, with changes in climate continuing for the
coming century, the type and rate of impacts on water resources is likely to
be unprecedented and overwhelming. All changes happening in rainfall and
temperature have various effects on available water resources.
Stream flow, available soil water, groundwater recharge and water quality
are all vulnerable to the projected changes in rainfall and temperature. For
most of the major river basins of Ethiopia, many studies projected reduction
of water yield. The reduction of water yield against the slightly increasing
rainfall projected for much of the country indicates the effects of increased
evapotranspiration loss of water due to the rising temperature. In general,
most studies suggest that in terms of rainfall change wet areas will become
wetter while dry areas will become drier. This means that southeastern,
northeastern and rift valley areas will become drier; while southwestern,
central and parts of western highland areas will become wetter. For instance,
a study in the Blue Nile basin estimated a 14% reduction of runoff with a 3%
increase in rainfall and 1.70C rise in temperature; and 11% runoff reduction
with 6% increase in rainfall and 2.60C increase in temperature. The same
study noted that higher low flows could be observed in the headwaters of
the Blue Nile because of the likely increase of rainfall in this region, and it
would be less likely that downstream communities suffer reduction of flow
even with increased water demands and population growth.
On the other hand, downscaled projection studies to the local scale show
that changes in runoff will be variable and inconsistent across different wa-
tersheds even within the same climatic regimes. There is a greater agree-
2 | WATER AND ENERGY

ment among studies on potential changes in the magnitude and frequency
of extreme events across the country; as the climate continues to change,
floods and droughts are most likely to become more severe in many parts of
Ethiopia.
Ethiopia is currently implementing a Climate Resilient Green Economy (CRGE)

initiative with the objective to protect the country from the adverse effects
of climate change and to build a green economy. CRGE has three objectives:
fostering economic development and growth, ensuring abatement and
avoidance of future greenhouse gas emissions, i.e., transition to a green
economy, and improving resilience to climate change. In addition to the
fact that most of the strategic elements in the Green Economy strategy are
water related (hydropower generation, irrigation and improving rain-fed
agriculture), a separate water sector climate resilience strategy has also
been prepared. The water sector strategy identifies ten climate resilience
strategic priorities in four priority sub-sectors (power generation, energy
access, irrigation and access to water, sanitation and hygiene). Effective
implementation of these priorities is expected to enable adaptation to the
progressive climate change by building resilience into the water resources
sector. But financing implementation of the strategy will be a real challenge.
Studies have already noted that the cost required for water management and
water sector adaptation to climate change is very high due to the difficult
hydrology of the country that is characterized by extreme events and high
inter-annual and seasonal variability and very poor water infrastructure
development.
In addition to financing, it is also important to note that there many factors,

often categorized as physical, political, social and institutional, that could
limit or complicate adaptation responses and climate risk management
activities in the water sector. Furthermore, there are many knowledge gaps in
the intricate relationships between climate change and water resources, and
there are also a number of developmental issues that require policy attention
as the country steps up investments to build resilience to climate change in
the water sector.
WATER AND ENERGY | 3

1. Introduction
Water is an important natural resource upon which all living things depend.
It is required in almost all forms of human enterprise, but water availability
is inherently variable (Kiparsky et al., 2012). Water undergoes circulation
between ocean – atmosphere and land, known as the hydrologic cycle.
The hydrologic cycle is driven by exchange of solar radiation between the
atmosphere and the earth’s surface.The largest proportion of incoming
radiation is used for heating the earth’s surface (change in surface
temperature) and evapotranspiration (Ludwig and Moench, 2009).With the
changing climate, increasing surface temperature, change in rainfall pattern
(intensity, amount and duration) and evapotranspiration rates will impact on
the global hydrologic cycle with a subsequent influence on water availability
for different uses (Rydgren et al., 2007; Estrela et al., 2012). There is a strong
link between changes in climate and the hydrologic cycle (World Bank,
2009). Observations and climate projections provide abundant evidence that
freshwater resources are vulnerable and have the potential to be strongly
impacted by climate change, with wide ranging consequences on societies
and ecosystems (Bates, 2008). These impacts are mainly due to increases in
temperature, evaporation, sea level rise and rainfall variability (Kundzewicz
et al., 2007). Change in intensity, volume and timing of rainfall as a result
of climate variability will affect the volume and frequency of stream flows.
Consequently, this will lead to an increase in the intensity of floods and
droughts, with substantial impacts on water resources at local and regional
levels (Blanco, 2008).
Different basins and sub-basins respond differently to the same changes

in climatic variables, depending largely on their physiographic and
hydrogeological characteristics as well as the surface conditions (Arnell,
1992).Watershed characteristics are increasingly altered by human activities
to meet the increasing demand for food and settlement. Projections indicate
that over the coming decades, expansion and intensification of agriculture,
growth of urban areas, and extraction of natural resources will likely accelerate
to satisfy demands of increasing numbers of people with higher standards of
living (DeFries and Eshleman, 2004). Land use change in semiarid areas has
often resulted in dramatic modifications of the water balance (Favreau et
al., 2009). Land use change affects also water demand and so, future water
requirements and availability are tightly linked to land use (Rockstom et
al., 2009). Population growth and the dynamics of climate change will also
exacerbate desertification, deforestation, soil erosion, degradation of water
quality, and depletion of water resources which in turn worsen the challenge
of food security in developing countries (Delgado et al., 2011).
Particularly in developing countries like Ethiopia where livelihood of over

80% of the population relies on agriculture, expansion of agricultural lands
and associated land degradation is a widespread challenge. Expansion
of cultivated lands favorssurface runoff generation from catchments and
reduces groundwater recharge and hence results in low base flows (Hurni
et al., 2005; Girmay et al., 2009; Tadele, 2009; Strzepek and Boehlert, 2010;
Ogden et al., 2013). The consequences of land use change on water resources
is wide-ranging that needs to be understood for proper management.
These consequences include for instance, changes in water demands from
changing land-use practices, such as irrigation and urbanization; changes in
water supply from altered hydrological processes of infiltration, groundwater
recharge and runoff; and changes in water quality from agricultural runoff
and suburban development (DeFries and Eshleman, 2004).
The manifestation of climate change impact on water resources can be felt

in several ways. Increased frequency and intensity of rainfall will produce
increased soil erosion and sedimentation. Flooding will damage infrastructure,
cause loss of lives and property as well as affect water quality as large volume
of water polluted with contaminants is transported to water bodies. Drought
as a result of change in rainfall pattern will lead to soil moisture deficits and
affect agricultural production, water supply for domestic, industrial and
agricultural purposes as well as ecosystem disturbances including wildfire
and biodiversity invasion (Da Cunha et al., 2005; IPCC, 2007). Moreover,
climate change will also affect the function and operation of existing water
infrastructure including hydropower, water supply, flood protection, irrigation
and drainage as well as overall water management practices (IPCC, 2007).
Ethiopia, like other sub-Saharan African countries, is vulnerable to the impacts

of climate change. This is attributed to the low incomes, low technological and
institutional capacity to adapt to rapidchanges in the environment, as well
as their greater reliance on climate-sensitive renewable natural resources

such as water and agriculture. Water supply sources for agriculture and
other sectors are mainly surface water and shallow groundwater wells that
undergo seasonal variability depending on climate (Urama and Ozor, 2010).
In arid and semi-arid regions like the lowland areas of Ethiopia, soil moisture
and groundwater table fluctuation are highly sensitive to rainfall variability at
the annual scale in arid regions (Wang and Alimohammadi, 2012).
In Ethiopia, the importance of water resources for all-round development of

the country is presently widely recognized than ever before. This is driven
by the development needs of the nation and subsequent ambitious water-
centered plans in agriculture, energy, domestic and industrial water supply
sectors. These sectors are by and large dependent on rainfall and surface
water and to a lesser extent groundwater. However, water sources like these
are subjected to seasonal variability and necessitate storage infrastructure
which are currently at a very low level of development in Ethiopia (World
Bank, 2006; Awulachew, 2010).
Climate change affects not only water quantity and quality but also water
demand and use.Water use in agriculture generally increases with increasing
temperature. However, as water demand is also driven by non-climatic factors,
there is no clear evidence for a climate-related trend in water use in the past
(IPCC 2007; Estrela et al., 2012). Inefficiencies in water use particularly in
agriculture have considerable influence on water demand. The efficiency
of surface irrigation which is widely practiced in Ethiopia varies on average
from 30-50% (Ayana, 2010). This indicates an unaccounted additional water
demand of 50-70%. With growing demand for water in all development
sectors and growing water stress due to climatic and non-climaticfactors,
such high inefficiency in water use needs to be improved.
Due to limited financial and technical capacity and capability, Ethiopia has been
considered as economical and technical water scarce country (Awulachew,
2010). It means, even if the country is endowed with vast physical water
resources potential, the resource could not be made available for use due
to inadequate water infrastructure. This low level of development of water
infrastructure exacerbates the country’s vulnerability to climate change.
Climate change represents a challenge for water resourcesdevelopment. The
course of water resource development strategies need to consider means of

adaptation to the challenges.
Generally, in the midst of increasing urban and environmental demands on

water, agriculture will beincreasingly required to improve water use efficiency.
Climate change will intensify the demands on efficient use of water in
agriculture and other sectors. With rising temperatures and changing rainfall
patterns, controlling water supplies and improving irrigation access and
efficiency will become increasingly important. Climate change will burden
currently irrigated areas and may even outstrip current irrigation capacity
due to general water shortages (Lybbert and Sumner, 2010).
As indicated above, Ethiopia is making remarkable progress in the

development of water recourses infrastructure as a means of building
sustainable and climate resilient green economy and as a measure of both
adaptation to and mitigation of climate change. It is widely recognized
that, in the face of climate change, adaptation (adjustment in natural or
human systems to moderate harm in response to expected change) is a key
mechanism for reducing negative impacts of current and future changes
(Kiparsky et al., 2012). Alongside adaptation, the country has committed itself
to work on mitigation of climate change (reducing greenhouse gas emissions)
as expressed in its climate resilient green economy strategy and the five-year
development plan, known as Growth and Transformation Plan (GTP) (MoFED,
2010).

2. Water Resources of Ethiopia
2.1. General features of Ethiopian river basins
Ethiopia has an area of about 1.13 million km2and this is bisected by the Great
East African Rift Valley into the western highlands and the eastern highlands,
each with associated lowlands. The Ethiopian highlands are extended Plateaus
that covers on both sides of the rift valley. The topography on the southeast
of the highlands descends and levels off towards the border of Somalia and
Ethiopia. The most mountainous terrain is found in the northwest of the Rift
Valley within the upper watersheds of the Blue Nile and Tekeze River basins
(Romilly and Gebremichael, 2011).
Generally, the country is characterized by highly diverse topography, with

elevation ranging from 125 m below sea level in the Denakil Depression called
Dalol to 4620 masl at Ras Dashen in the Simen Mountains. In between, there
are high mountains, plateaus, deep gorges, incised river valleys, and low-
lying plains. Areas with elevations greater than 1500 m asl are considered as
highlands, and it is in these areas that almost 90% of the population of the
country lives (MoWR, 2001; Cheung et al., 2008). The remaining population
lives in lowland areas (<1500m asl) surrounding the highlands.
As summarized by Ayenew et al. (2008) and MoWIE (2014), Ethiopia has

three principal drainage systems, which start from the central highlands. The
first and largest is the western system, which includes the watersheds of the
Abay (Blue Nile), Tekeze and Baro-Akobo, all flowing west to the Sudan. The
second is the rift valley internal drainage system, which includes the Awash,
the Lakes region and the Omo-Ghibe basins. The Awash River drains to the
northeast through the rift floor and remains entirely contained within the
boundaries of the country and enters Lake Abbe near the Djibouti border. The
Rift Lakes basin is a closed system located in central Ethiopia where several
rift valley lakes are found. The Omo and Ghibe rivers flow to Lake Turkana
in the Ethiopia and Kenya border. The third system is the Wabi-Shebele and
Genale-Dawa rivers, which drain to the Indian Ocean through Somalia.
All of Ethiopia’s major rivers originate in the highlands and flow outward
in many directions through deep gorges. The Ethiopian landmass
ishydrographically divided into 12 River Basins (Figure. 1).

Figure 1 River basins of Ethiopia
Climatologically, the south and southwest region exhibits tropical climate

whereas the northeastern and southeastern lowland areas are characterized
by arid and semiarid climates (UN-Water, 2008). The hydrology of the country
is a direct reflection of the climate, the terrain and other physiographic
characteristics.
2.2. Rainfall in Ethiopia

The water resources of Ethiopia are governed strongly by the amount and
distribution of rainfall. The distribution of rainfall over the country is highly
variable. Variations in rainfall throughout the country is highly influenced by
differences in elevation and seasonal changes in the atmospheric pressure
systems that control the prevailing winds (US Library of Congress, 2005;

World Bank, 2006; Cheung et al., 2008; Korecha, 2013; Reda et al., 2014).
These factors are the drivers of spatial and temporal variability of rainfall
distribution and water availability in Ethiopia.
Ethiopia has three distinct seasons which are commonly recognized in the
country (viz. Belg, Kiremt and Bega), each with different rainfall distribution
pattern and amount. The Belg season, approximately extends from March to
the end of May, and is considered the small rainy season in most of the river
basins; and it is generated by weather systems that originate over the Indian
Ocean. The Kiremt season, approximately extend from June to the end of
September. It is considered as the main rainy season. The seasonal oscillation
of the Inter-Tropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) is the predominant mechanism
for the rainfall during Kiremt (Seleshi and Zanke, 2004; Mohammed et al.,
2005; Korecha, 2013; Reda et al., 2014). Bega is the dry season and it extends
from October through the end of February.
Mean annual rainfall ranges from about 2000 mm over some pocket areas
in the southwest to about less than 250 mm over the Afar lowlands in the
northeast and Ogaden in the southeast. Rainfall decreases northwards and
eastwards from the high rainfall pocket areas in the southwest (NMSA, 2001).
Based on the annual rainfall distribution patterns over the country, three
major rainfall regimes are identified (World Bank, 2006; Reda et al., 2014):
• The southwestern and western areas of the country are charac-

terized by a mono-modal (single peak) rainfall pattern, with the
length of the wet season decreasing northward (example, region
Bahir Dar in Figure 2).
• The central, eastern, and northeastern areas of the country expe-

rience a nearly bi-modal (two peak) rainfall distribution. The two
rainy seasons are called Belg (smaller rains from February to May)
and Kiremt (main rainy season from June to September). Example
of such distribution isthe rainfall at Metahara station indicatedin
Figure 2).
• The southern and southeastern areas of the country are dominat-

ed by a distinctly bimodal rainfall pattern. The rainy seasons are
September to November and March to May, with two distinct dry

periods separating them (example, Arba Minch in Figure 2).
Figure 2 Typical rainfall distribution pattern

in the different rainfall regions of Ethiopia
Rainfall distribution is extremely variable both in space and time. This

variability is reflected in the uneven distribution of surface and groundwater
resources of the country. Northeastern and eastern areas of the country
receive low rainfall and have limited freshwater resources whereas the
western and southeastern parts of the country receive high rainfall and have
abundant freshwater resources.According to Seleshi and Zanke (2004) there
is a decline in annual and Kiremt rainfall and rainfall days in the eastern parts
of Ethiopia.
2.3. Water Resources Potential

2.3.1. Surface runoff
Most of the Ethiopian rivers originate from highland areas and flow into
different directions to lowland areas including to the neighboring countries.
This is the reason why Ethiopia has been considered as the water tower
of Northeast Africa. The total annual surface runoff from the twelve river

basins amounts to about 124 billion cubic meter, BCM (Table 1). Although
this represents an immense amount, its distribution in time and space is
erratic. Out of the 12 river basins presented in Table 1, eight basins can be
considered as wet basins (N0s. 1 - 8) as they generate considerable quantities
of flow. The Lakes Basin (Rift Valley Basin) in which several lakes are fed by
numerous rivers and streams and three other basins are considered as dry
as they receive low amount of rainfall that cannot even satisfy evaporative
demands (Awulachew, 2010; Fekahmed, 2012; Berhanu et al., 2014).
Table 1 Hydro-meteorological characteristics of the major river basins
Basin Basin Area Temperature Rainfall(mm) Aver-

Name age
num- (km2) ( OC) Evapo- Surface
ber Min. Max. Max. Min. Aver- ration runoff
age (mm) (BCM)
A Blue Nile
Basin
1 Abbay 199,912 11.4 25.5 2220 800 1420 1300 54.4
2 Baro-Akobo 75,912 <17 >28 3000 600 1419 1800 23.2
3 Tekeze 82,350 <10 >22 1200 600 1300 1400 8.2
4 Mereb 5,900 18 27 2000 680 520 1500 0.7
B Draining to Indian
Ocean
5 Wabi She- 202,220 6 27 1563 223 425 1500 3.4
belle
6 Genale 172,259 <15 >25 1200 200 528 1450 6.0
Dawa
C Draining to Lake Turkana
7 Omo-Gibe 79,000 17 29 1900 400 1140 1600 16.6
D Internally closed basins
8 Awash 110,000 20.8 29 1600 160 557 1800 4.9

9 Rift Valley 52,000 <10 >27 1800 300 650 1607 5.6
10 Danakil 64,380 5.7 57.3 1500 100 400 Na 0.9
11 Ogaden 77,120 25 39 800 200 380 Na 0.0
12 Aysha 2,223 26 40 500 120 400 Na 0.0
124
Source: MoWR (2010); UN-Water (2008); Abbay River Basin Master Plan (1999)

The remaining three basins, viz. Danakil, Ogaden and Aysha are dry basins.
They are characterized by very low rainfall and hot temperature and hence
high rate of potential evapotranspiration.
The values of maximum and minimum annual rainfall indicated in Table 1

reveal that there is high variability in annual rainfall amounts in the river
basins. It is also evident that all basins are characterized by high evaporation
demands. Potential evaporation rates are greater than maximum basin
rainfalls in some basins for instance in Abbay, Genele-Dawa, Awash and
Tekeze basins.
Except Awash River, all of the eight wet basins drain to the neighboring
countries. As a result of differences in rainfall amount and distribution across
the country, there is considerable difference in runoff amounts generated
from the basins. Thebasins located to the western side of the Great Rift Valley,
namely Abbay, Tekeze, andBaro-Akoboand Omo-Gibe receive considerably
high amounts of mean annual rainfall. They account for about 83% of the
country’s annual surface runoff (102.4 BCM), while coveringonly 39% of
the country’s area. These basins host about 50% of the population of the
country. Runoff from Abbay, Tekeze, Baro Akobo and Mereb represents the
contribution of Ethiopia to the main Nile River which amounts to about 85.5
BCM.The most remarkable contribution in terms of volume of runoff comes
from the Abbay River, the second largest basin next to Wabi Shebele in terms
of area, and it is also commonly called the Blue Nile River. This river alone
accounts for about 43% of the annual flow in the country. About 70-80%
of the annual flow of almost all rivers in Ethiopia is attributed to the heavy
Kiremt rains that occur between July and September (NBI, 2008).
The Wabi Shebele and Genale Dawa basins which drain the southeastern
part of the country towards Somalia cover about 33% of the country and
contribute only 7.6% of the total annual runoff.The Omo Gibe basin is located
in the southwest of the country and drains into Lake Turkana of Kenya through
Baro River.
Abbay, Tekeze, and Baro-Akobo rivers account for about half of the country’s
water outflow. In the northern half of the Great Rift Valley flows the Awash
River. The Awash flows northeast wards and vanishes in the saline lakes near
the border with Djibouti. The southeast is drained by the Ganale, Dawa and

Wabi Shebelle Rivers into Somalia, and the Omo River in southwest drains
into LakeTurkana in the Ethiopia and Kenya border. There are also many rivers
that drain into the closed rift lakes in central Ethiopia; what is known as the
Rift Lakes Basin.
The very high variability exhibited by the climate components of the country
over time and space is the main reason behind the spatial and temporal
variability in the availability of water. The surface runoff potential varies
across the basins depending on other climatic variables such as rainfall and
temperature and topography. This is evidenced by the fact that the wet
southwest and western part of the country, viz. Abbay, Baro Akobo and Omo-
Gibe, produce about 76% of the annual runoff whereas the southeast, east,
and north comparatively produce very small amount of surface runoff.
Figure 3 shows the general flow characteristics of some of the Ethiopian rivers
which exhibit seasonality. As rainfall that produces runoff all over the basins
is seasonal, the river flows are also seasonal. About 76% of total annual flow
is generated during the months of July to October. This variability in water
availability necessitates water storage infrastructure. However, the current
per capita storage of the country is only 160m3 which is only 20% of South
Africa’s and 2.6% of North America’s (World Bank, 2006; Awulachew, 2010).
Figure 3 Mean monthly runoff hydrographs of some major rivers
To minimize the economic impacts of water shortages, greater water storage,

both natural and manmade, large scale and small scale, will be needed. Given

both seasonal and inter-annual variability, significant over-year storage will
be particularly important for Ethiopia (World Bank, 2006).
2.3.2. Lakes and wetlands

Ethiopia has 11 freshwater and 9 saline lakes, 4 crater lakes and over 12 major
swamps and wetlands. The majority of the lakes are found in the Rift Valley
Basin (Figure 4). The Central Ethiopian Rift valley is characterized by a chain
of lakes and wetlands with unique hydrological and ecological characteristics.
Most of the rift lakes are localized within a closed basin fed by perennial
rivers and seasonal streams. Hills, ridges and volcano-tectonic depressions
separate them. Large highland rivers are the source of sustained supply to
the major rift lakes. The amount and distribution of highland rainfall strongly
controls the level and size of these lakes (Ayenew, 2009).
The major lakes and their hydrologic characteristics are given in Table 3. The
total surface area of the major natural and artificial lakes is about 7,500 km2.
This surface area is considerably higher when small lakes and wetlands are
considered. An estimated storage capacity of these major lakes is about 95.46
BCM (Table 3). All of these lakes, except Tana, are found in the Rift Valley.
The streams feeding the rift valley lakes are increasingly being used for
irrigation. Studies show that many of the lakes are undergoing considerable
change in their levels and sizes (Chernet et al. 2001; Ayenew, 2002; Tamiru
et al, 2006; Ayenew, 2007). As a result of their volcano-tectonic origin
and increasing land degradation for agriculture most of these lakes are
characterized by high concentration of dissolved solids. The high content of
fluoride reaches 300 mg/l and affects the health of the population who live
in the main Ethiopian Rift valley. Furthermore, high level of alkalinity and
sodicity of most of these lake waters degrade structure and productivity
of agricultural soils (Chernet et al., 2001). Excessive land degradation,
deforestation and over-irrigation are increasingly aggravating sedimentation
in lakes and increase in soil salinity (Legesse and Ayenew, 2006). Except Lake
Ziway and Abaya, irrigation directly from the lake waters is not practiced in
the rift valley due to quality constraints. Lake Abiyata has been exploited
for production of soda ash and hence, experiencing anthropogenic induced
changes.

Figure 4 Location of Ethiopian Lakes and wetlands associated with the Great East
African Rift and adjacent highlands.
Key to wetlands:1 –Turkana, 2–Chew Bahir, 3–Chamo, 4–Abaya, 5–Awasa–

Shallo, 6–Chitu, 7–Shala, 8–Abijata, 9–Langano 10–Ziway, 11–Bishoftu
crater lakes, 12–Beseka, 13–Afambo–Abhe group, 14–Afdera, 15–Asale,
16–Ashenge, 17–Hayk-Ardibo, 18– Wonchi–Dendi, 19–Tana, 20–Lakes of the
Bale Mountains, 21–Haramaya–Adele–Finkle (Ayenew, 2009)
Apart from their economic importance in terms of water supply for irrigation,
recreation, fishery, and soda abstraction these chain of lakes harbor endemic
birds, wild animals and provide ecosystem services. However, with increasing
population growth, land degradation and related soil erosion and uncontrolled
access to and use of these resources, sustainability of the lakes systems has
become area of considerable concern that need attention. Several studies
indicated that unwise water and land use systems from and around the lakes
have led to changing conditions of the lakes especially in terms of their level,
size, and water quality (Ayenew, 2004; Alemayehu et al., 2006; Legesse and
Ayenew, 2006; Ayenew and Legesse, 2007).

Table 2 Hydrological characteristics of the major lakes of Ethiopia
Lake Area Max. Average depth Volume Salinity SAR

(km2) depth (m) (m) (BCM)
(g/l)
Abaya 1160 13 7 8.2 0.96 15.7
Abiyata 180 14.2 7.6 1.61 16.2 653
Ashenge 20 25 25 0.5 - -
Awassa 129 20 10.7 1.3 1.063 10.2
Bishoftu 86 87 55 0.1 - -
Chamo 551 13 6 3.3 1.68 27
Hayk 35 23 23 0.8 - -
Koka 250 9 9 2.25 - -
Langano 230 47.9 17 5.3 1.88 -
Shala 370 266 8.6 36.7 21.5 267
Tana 3600 14 9 32.4 - -
Ziway 440 8.9 2.5 1.1 0.35 3
Abe 450 37 36 2 - -
Total 7500 95.46
Source: Ayenew (2007); Mikhailovich et al. (2008); Rift Valley Basin Master Plan
(2009)
SAR – Sodium Absorption Ratio - is an indicator based on several parameters
specifically showing its suitability for irrigation. SAR of 10 is considered the
maximum for irrigation
As can be seen from Table 2, the water quality of all lakes except Ziway,
Hawassa and Tana is above the range of permissible level for irrigation.
The management of freshwater lakes becomes a concern when they are
overexploited. In this regard, Lake Ziway is the case in point. According to
Ayenew (2004), the levels of some of the lakes have changed dramatically
over the last three decades. Some lakes have shrunk due to excessive
abstraction of water; others have expanded due to increases in surface runoff
and groundwater influx from percolated irrigation water. Tiruneh (2007) has
reported that the salinity levels of Abaya and Chamo lakes haveincreased by
60% and 67%, respectively, between 1964 and 2003.

With increasing water demand and use in agriculture and other water use
sectors, the use of feeder streams as well as freshwater lakes will increase in
the future. Under the changing climate, how these uses will affect the lakes
and be affected by changing conditions of the lakes is an area of concern to
be investigated and understood well.
2.3.3. Groundwater potential

Groundwater, the water beneath the surface, is recharged as part of rainfall and
surface water bodies that infiltrates and percolates deep into the soil. Factors
such as climate, topographic features, geology, land use and land cover affect
the rate of groundwater recharge. It is an important source of water supply to
springs, streams and rivers, lakes and swamps. This shows that groundwater
is in intimate interaction with surface water. Groundwater has been exploited
in other countries for domestic use, livestock and irrigation since the earliest
times. Although understanding the occurrence of groundwater is difficult,
successful methods of bringing the water to the surface was developed and
groundwater use has grown consistently ever since (WHO, 1992). At present
an estimated 70% of the world’s population depends for its basic domestic
water services on groundwater (MoWR, 2011).
In Ethiopia, groundwater is so far utilized mainly for drinking water supply,

but there are developments in many parts of the country to implement
groundwater based irrigation from shallow and deep aquifers. Although
several areas with very shallow aquifers have recently been developed for
agriculture by farmers and private initiatives, the level of groundwater use
is still very low. On the other hand, it is well understood that groundwater
is of paramount importance for Ethiopia to supplement the available
surface water resources in providing drinking water to its population and
for economic development (agriculture, livestock, industry, tourism) and in
general to mitigate the effects of climate variability (MoWR, 2011). However,
the low level of capacity in understanding and mapping the complex nature
of the highly varying geology and aquifersof the country represents one
of the bottlenecks to its development. Generally speaking, there are large
gaps in knowledge, capacity and management systems in groundwater.
Professionals especially in drilling, hydrogeology, water supply engineering

etc are inadequate or even lacking in some cases. Not only professional
shortfall but also lack of drilling rigs, pumping and other relevant equipment
are hampering the development of groundwater.
The groundwater potential of Ethiopia is variable from place to place based

on several factors such as variations in geology, nature of structures, recharge
condition, nature and duration of precipitation and other factors. Due to
economic reasons test wells or sufficient pumping test data are not available
to enable reliable determinationof hydraulic properties of aquifers, other
data such as recharge rate estimation are also not sufficient to determine the
groundwater potential of the country (UN-Water, 2004).
Due to problems mentioned above, the groundwater potential of the country

is not well known. Only few localized studies in the Ethiopian Rift Valley
system have been made to understand the hydrochemistry and occurrence
of groundwater (Kebede et al., 2005; Demellie et al., 2007; Ayenew et al.,
2008a,b; Demellie et al., 2008). The mechanism of groundwater recharge,
flow pattern and occurrence is reported to be complex. This is mainly
attributed to the complexity of geological and geomorphological setup of the
country.
An estimated amount of 2.6 BCM has been widely quoted. Following the
results of recently completed assessment for parts of the country, there
is consensus that the 2.6BCM figure is extreme underestimate and that it
needs to be considerably revised. Best estimates in this respect range from
12-30BCM or even more if all aquifers in the lowlands are assessed (MoWR,
2011). According to rough estimates based on the information given in Table
3 and Figure 5, the annual groundwater recharge may reach up to 60 BCM.

Table 3 Aquifer categories and their yield
Zone Name Area (km2) Average re- Average volume

charge (mm) (BCM)*
River Abay 199,912 100 19.851
basins
Baro-Akobo 75,912 120 9.0864
Tekeze (Atbara) 82,350 50 4.3885
Wabishebelle 202,220 30 6.1623
Genale-Dawa 172,259 30 5.0442
Omo 79,000 100 7.721
Rift Valley 52,000 50 2.745
Awash 110,000 30 3.3996
Denakil 64,380 10 0.6952
Total 59.0932
Recharge (mm/
year)
Physio- Highlands of western and southwestern Ethiopia 250 - 400
graphic
zones
Eastern (high peaks) and central Ethiopian high- 150 – 250
lands
Much of northern and northwestern highlands, 50 – 150

Central Main Rift, southern and far eastern high-
lands
Southern Afar and the extreme northern end of < 50
the western lowlands and much of far eastern
andsouthern lowlands
*own estimation based on area and depth of recharge (for shallow aquifers).
Source: Ayenew et al. (2008a)

Figure 5 Groundwater recharge and availability map
Source: Ayenew et al. (2008a).
Note: A = wide spread good quality groundwater at a relatively shallow depth

(dominantly highland volcanic aquifers recharged by high rainfall); B = large
groundwater reserve with fair to bad quality often localized in lower elevation
areas (rift valley and volcanics in pediment covered with thick sediments and
intermountain grabens); C = low to moderate groundwater reserve with fair
quality (highland trap series volcanic aquifer with less sediment cover and
recharge); D = medium to high groundwater reserve in the volcanics and
sediments recharged by rainfall and rivers in places with serious salinity
problem; E = Low groundwater reserve with moderate quality recharged by
seasonal floods and streams.
Given the low understanding of groundwater potential of the country, the

role placed on groundwater in water-centered development plans is higher
than ever before. Groundwater irrigation is given due attention to supplement
rain-fed agriculture. The realization of planning targets in the water supply

sector will heavily depend on the development of groundwater. This suggests
that there is an urgent need for developing the capacity of understanding and
mapping groundwater for national development and management.
2.4. Water resources development

The availability of and access to freshwater is an important determinant
of economic growth and social development. This is particularly the case
in Ethiopia where more than 80% of the population lives in rural areas and
are still heavily dependent on small scale agriculture for their livelihoods.
Water has also a basic function in maintaining the integrity of the natural
environment.
Ethiopia is characterized as on one hand a country with abundant water

resources and on the other as one of the countries suffering from drought
and unavailability of water in required quality and quantity for different use
sectors. Agriculture, the dominant economic sector of the country is highly
affected by variability of water availability. The magnitude of variability and
the timingand duration of periods of high and low supply are not predictable;
this equates to unreliability of the resource which poses great challenges
to water managers in particular and to communities as a whole(UN-Water,
2008). Runoff characteristics of Ethiopian rivers as depicted in Figure 3, which
shows that high water availability periods are limited to 3-4 months of the
year depending upon rainfall distribution patterns of the basins. Despite this
variability in water supply, the development of water storage infrastructure is
at a very low stage. This demands understanding the groundwater system and
developing more water storage structures in different parts of the country.
2.4.1. Irrigation
The development of irrigation and agricultural water management holds
significant potential to improve productivity and reduce vulnerability to
climactic volatility in Ethiopia. Irrigation can contribute to the national
economy in several ways. At the micro level, irrigation leads to an increase
in yield per hectare and subsequent increases in income, consumption and
food security. Irrigation enables smallholders to diversify cropping patterns,
and to switch from low-value subsistence production to high-value market-

oriented production, minimizing crop failure due to dry spells (Hagos et al.,
2009).
Although Ethiopia has abundant rainfall and water resources, its agricultural
system does not yet fully benefit from the technologies of water management
and irrigation (Awulachew, 2010). Based on information from river basin
master plans the irrigation potential of the country is estimated at about 3.7
Mha. With consideration of groundwater irrigation (1.1 Mha) and rainwater
harvesting (0.5 Mha), the irrigation potential is estimated at 5.3 Mha
(Awulachew, 2010; Gebremeskel, 2011).
Although traditional irrigation has long years of history, modern irrigation has
started in Ethiopia in the 1960s in the Awash valley with the objective of
producing industrial crops (Awulachew et al., 2007). For instance, sugar estate
irrigation schemes of Wonji Shoa and Metahara were established in 1954 and
1966, respectively; Bilate was established in 1967 as well as Amibara and
Nura Era in 1983.The country is presently committing huge investments to
develop irrigation infrastructure of different scales with the aim to enhance
agricultural production to feed the growing population, creating employment
opportunity, expand export earnings and supply raw materials to agro-
industries. Public investment, private, NGOs and farmers own initiatives are
involved in the development of irrigated agriculture.
Regarding the extent of the area currently covered with irrigated agriculture,
there is no reliable information and monitoring system. According to Hagos
et al (2009) area under irrigation in 2005/06 was about 625,819 ha. Estimate
made by Awulachew (2010) suggest that about 640,000 ha is under irrigation
that includes 128,000 ha micro irrigation using rainwater harvesting, 383,000
ha small-scale, and 129,000 ha from medium and large-scale irrigation. This
figure accounts 11.8% of the irrigable land which is still low as compared to
the potential and development of other countries.
While the development trend in irrigation is promising, little attention is

given to the management of existing schemes. The performance of existing
irrigation schemes are low due to poor operation and maintenance services,
problems related to improper planning and design, lack of incentive for
proper management of water in state-run projects (Ayana and Awulachew,
2009; Awulachew and Ayana, 2011). Reports indicate that mismanagement

of irrigation water in intensively irrigated areas of the Awash Basin has led
to considerable rise of salinity in almost 26% of the irrigated areas (Ayenew,
2007a). Lake Beseka, one of the saline lakes (current surface area around
55km2), is expanding dramatically due to groundwater rise driven by over
irrigation in Wonji Shewa and Metahara irrigation projects (Ayenew, 2007b).
The Growth and Transformation Plan (GTP) of the country envisages the
development of irrigation to cover 1.8 million ha by 2015. Institutionalization
of the management and operation of the irrigation sector is vital to ensure its
efficient management and sustainability.
2.4.2. Water supply and sanitation

Ethiopia is considered as one of the countries with low water supply and
sanitation coverage. However, from a very low base, the country is rapidly
improving access to safe water supply and coverage. Table 4 shows the water
supply coverage and its development targets.
Table 4 GTP water supply coverage and planned targets
Coverage (%) Base year Yearly targets

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
(2010)
Rural 65.8 73 80 86 92 100
Urban 91.5 93 95 97 99 100
National 68.5 75 81 87 93 100
Non-functional 20 18 16 14 12 10
Source: Gebremeskel (2011)
The fact that close to 85% of the population is living in rural areas under
scattered settlements, provision of centralized water supply system is not
possible. Instead localized systems have been developed and implemented.
Most of the water supply schemes both in urban and rural areas are
characterized by low levels of service and lack of sustainability. Although
water supply systems in the larger cities have recently been improved, they
need to be expanded to meet the demands of rapid population growth and
the planned industrial zones. In rural communities, water supply systems
have too often been installed without adequately training the communities
to manage and maintain them (World Bank, 2006). Due to lack of technical

and financial capacities as well as unavailability of spare parts several water
supply schemes implemented in rural areas are not functional (Girmay, 2012).
Sustainability of schemes is an area of concern that needs serious attention.
2.4.3. Hydropower
With increasing population growth and development, the demand for
energy is increasing. Expansion of manufacturing and agro-industries,
improved living standards and service needs adequate and reliable supply
of energy urgently. Close to 90% of the energy demand of the country has
been covered from biomass (Solomon, 1998), which has been considered as
one of the contributors to deforestation and land degradation. Ethiopia is
making exceptional progress in developing its renewable energy resources as
outlined in GTP and climate resilient green economy strategy. Among these
sources, hydropower has received greater attention.
Hydropower is considered as clean energy and environmental friendly.

According to EEPCO (2013) and MoWIE (2014), the theoretical potential
of hydropower in Ethiopia is estimated to be 30,000–45,000 MW (160,000
GWh/year), with the estimated economically feasible hydropower potential
ranging between 15,000 and 30,000 MW. With this huge potential, Ethiopia
is the second in Africa next to the Democratic Republic of Congo. Although
hydropower development for electrification goes back to 1930 (Table 5), very
little percentage of the potential has been harnessed until recently.
Ethiopia is making significant progress in its socio-economic development. It

has set development objectives of eradicating poverty through broad-based,
accelerated and sustained economic growth and ultimately increasing per
capita income of its citizens to the level of middle-income countries by 2025.
This goal, as set out in the strategy of climate resilient green economy (CRGE),
will have to be achieved by building the economy that is both resilient to the
impacts of climate change and low in greenhouse gas emissions. It is evident
that the demand for energy will increase with the development of different
economic sectors. According to forecasts the energy demand will increase
by 32% from 2011 to 2015 (MoWR, 2013). Development of hydropower is
becoming essential to meet the energy demands of progressing development
and it is also considered as one of the strategies to building CRGE. During

the first cycle of GTP, it was envisaged to develop the country’s hydropower
capacity from 2,000 MW (base year, 2010/11) to 8,000 MW (after 5 years,
2014/15).
Table 5 Hydropower chronology in Ethiopia
Hydropower plant Installed capacity (MW) Year of completion

1 Akaki 6 1932
2 Tis Abay I 12 1953
3 Koka 42 1960
4 Awash II 36 1966
5 Awash II 36 1971
6 Fincha 134 1972
7 Melka Wakana 153 1989
8 Tis Abay II 72 2001
9 Gilgel Gibe I 184 2004
10 Tekeze 300 2009
11 Gibe II 420 2009
12 Gilgel Gibe II 420 2009
13 Tana Beles 460 2010
14 Finchaa Amerti Nesse 100 2012
15 Gilgel Gibe III 1,870 2014
16 GERD 6000 2017
10,245
Source: EEPCO (2013)
As can be seen from Figure 6, the development of hydropower installed

capacity has increased enormously during the last 10 years. The development
shows three distinct phases; namely, slow development phase (1932 – 2000),
rapid development phase (2000– 2011) and shooting phase (from 2011
onwards).
Owing to the development needs and plans of the country, there are several
hydropower plants in pipeline (Table 6). As it can be seen from the same
table, the three River Basins, namely, Abbay, Omo Gibe and Baro Akobo,
that generate about 76% of the annual surface runoff of the country, can be

considered as basins with vast existing, on-going and planned hydropower
projects.
Figure 6 Development trend of hydropower in Ethiopia
Fifteen more hydropower projects with installed power capacity of 10,956

MW are under study (MoWIE, 2013). The status of these studies varies from
reconnaissance to completed feasibility studies.
Table 6 Installed capacities of hydropower plants by basin in MW
Basin Name Existing Construc- Candidates Total

tion
1 Wabi Shebelle 153 - 88 241
2 Abbay 776 6,000 6,095 12,871
3 Genale Dawa - 254 346 600
4 Awash 106 107 6 219
5 Tekeze 300 - 450 750
6 Omo-Gibe 604 1,870 2,718 5,192
7 Baro-Akobo 5 - 2,705 2,710
1,944 8,231 12,408 22,583
Source: MoWR (2013)
It is important to note that with increasing water development projects

in all sectors like irrigation, energy, water supply and sanitation as well as
ecosystem services, the demand for water will increase. Meeting increasing
demand for water under varying climate makes proper management and
allocation of water among different use sectors increasingly important which
otherwise would lead to conflicts and degradation of resources. Climate
change and variability will likely pose additional stress on these demands as
it influences water availability.
Soil erosion and sediment transport from degraded areas is a serious threat
for the growing development of water infrastructure like dams and reservoirs.
Rivers and streams that originate from highland areas are carrying enormous
sediment during rainy seasons and flooding events. With the current intensity
of land degradation, several dams and reservoirs will fall short of their useful
lives unless soil and water conservation practice is implemented rapidly.
2.5. Water resources governance

2.5.1. Institutional development
Water governance generally refers to the wide range of social, economic,
political, institutional, administrative systems and decision-making processes
that are in place to regulate development and management of water
resources and provision of water services (Hemel and Loijenga, 2013). Such
systems are required to regulate the development and management of water
resources and provision of adequate, safe and reliable water supply services
to different use sectors including ecosystems. However, water governance
in Ethiopia is seriously threatened by inadequacies and incompetence of
institutional arrangements and legal frameworks (UNESCO, 2004).
Water resources management is a core issue for development in Ethiopia.

Human and institutional capacities are essential for effective water resources
management. Given the country’s challenging hydrology, the need for such
capacity is great; but capacity in this regard is low. Efforts to strengthen
capacity are ongoing in Ethiopia and should be seen as a continued priority
(World Bank, 2006).
The evolution of water resources governance institutions has a short history

in Ethiopia. Decentralized traditional water management system has been

widely practiced in the country since ancient times. The role of government in
water resources management has evolved with the need to develop modern
irrigation systems and water supply schemes in the 1950s. The historical
evolution of water resources management institutions as given by Ligdi et al.
(2011) and author’s review is presented in Table 7.
Table 7 Chronological development of institutions in the water sector
Year Institution Duties

1956 Water Resources Established under the Ministry of Public Works
Department & Communications; it was established to handle
a multi-purpose investigation of the Blue Nile
Basin. Over the years, it took on the river basin
studies and water well drilling programmes
1962 Awash Valley Took over the responsibility for all water resourc-
Authority (AVA) es development activities in the Awash Valley. Its
mandate includes all aspects of water planning,
development and operation including water
rights administration.
1971 National Water Established under the then Ministry of Public
Resources Com- Works & Water Resources. The Commission’s
mission (NWRC) purposes and objectives covered the full range
of water responsibilities. The Commission’s pow-
ers were broad but were not fully exercised and
implemented due to financial and organizational
constraints as well as lack of commitment and
willingness of public authorities to accept a na-
tional authority over water resources develop-
ment and management
1975 Ethiopian Water EWRA was established and placed under the
Resources Au- Ministry of Mines, Energy & Water Resourc-
thority (EWRA) es. Three agencies, namely, Land & Water Stud-
ies Agency, Rural Water Development Agency
and Urban Water & Sewerage Agency were
established under the Authority.
1977 Valleys Agricul- VADA had similar powers and duties as AVA ex-
tural Develop- cept that its jurisdiction was limited to water re-
ment Authority sources whereas that of AVA included all resourc-
(VADA) es, but its authority covered the whole country.

1981 National Water A further re-organization in the water sector re-
Resources Com- sulted in the establishment of NWRC. It was com-
mission (NWRC) posed of the Water Resources Authority, Water
Supply and Sewerage Authority (WASSA), Ethio-
pian Water Works Construction Authority (EW-
WCA), and the National Meteorological Services
(NMS).
1993 Ministry of Nat- After about ten years of service, the NWRC was
ural Resources dissolved and the Authorities under its umbrel-
and Environ- la, except EWWCA, were made accountable
mental Protec- to MoNREP which was established in 1993 and
tion (MoNREP) served only for about two years.
1995 Ministry of MoWR was established by proclamation
Water Resources No.4/95 as a federal institution for the water
(MoWR) sector. At regional level, the water sector is the
responsibility of the Water, Mines and Energy
Development Bureaus or the Water Resources
Development Bureaus. The MoWR was respon-
sible for the overall planning, development,
management, utilization and protection of the
country’s water resources, as well as supervis-
ing all water development activities carried out
by other institutions. Large-scale water supply
was also handled by the ministry through its
Water Supply and Sewerage Department.
2005 Ministry of Wa- Had similar duties as the current MoWIE
ter and Energy

2013 Ministry of Water resources related powers and duties of
Water, Irrigation the Ministry as stipulated in Proclamation num-
and Energy ber 691/2010 are:
• Promote the development of water re-

sources and energy;
• Undertake basin studies and determine

the country’s ground and surface water
resource potential in terms of volume
and quality, and facilitate the utilization
of same;
• Determine conditions and methods re-

quired for the optimum and equitable
allocation and utilization of water bod-
ies that flow across or lie between more
than one Regional State among various
uses and the Regional States;
• Undertake studies and negotiation of

treaties pertaining to the utilization of
boundary and trans-boundary water
bodies, and follow up the implementa-
tion of same;
• Cause the carrying out of study, design

and construction works to promote the
expansion of medium and large irriga-
tion dams;
• Administer dams and water structures

constructed by federal budget unless
they are entrusted to the authority of
the relevant bodies;
2007 River Basin It was legalized by the proclamation No.
Councils and 534/2007.
Authorities

2008 Awash Basin AVA which was established in 1962 was re-estab-
Authority (ABA) lished to ABA. It has the mandate of promoting
and monitoring implementation of integrated
water resources management processes in an
equitable and participatory manner in the Awash
basin (FNG, 2008)
As can be seen from Table 7, water management institutions have been

undergoing frequent restructuring and characterized by instabilities. Possible
reasons for such high turnover according to Fekahmed (2009) could be:
 Creation of institutions with short term objective rather than long term
vision
 Establishment through ad-hoc decisions rather than detailed
institutional investigation and analysis
 Less emphasis given to institutional sustainability
 Discrepancy between high expectation and low performance during
the first few years of institutions
 Insufficient budgetary allocation and less attention given to capacity
building
Currently the water sector governance structure encompasses federal level
ministry, regional level water and energy bureaus and supporting zonal and
woreda level water resources development offices.
Federal level: The Ministry of Water, Irrigationand Energy is the main

federal government institution established by proclamation number
69/2010 to manage the water resources of the country. It has the mandate
of formulating national water policy, strategy, legal frameworks, plans, and
for establishing national standards pertaining to water resources, establish
relevant institutions, commission studies, plan and develop water supply
and sanitation schemes, irrigation, hydropower and other energy forms, and
water resources administration, protection, monitoring and allocation.
There are other ministries and institutions at federal level that are involved
directly or indirectly in water resources development. These are for instance:
Ministry of Agriculture, Ministry of Health, Ministry of Industry, Ministry of
Urban Development and Construction, Ministry of Environment and Forestry,

and Ministry of Finance and Economic Development as well as Electric
Power Corporation, Addis Ababa Water Supply and Sewerage Authority,
and Water ResourcesDevelopment Fund Office.Subsidiary organizations to
the Ministry of Water, Irrigation and Energy are: Water Works Design and
Supervision Enterprise, Water Works Construction Authority, Water Well
Drilling Enterprise, and River Basin Authorities (Awash, Abbay and Rift Valley
Lakes Basin).
River Basin level: River Basin Organizations comprising a Basin High Council
and River Basin Authorities, as legalized by proclamation No. 534/2007, are
being established in order to ensure integrated water resources management
at the basin level
Regional level: The Bureau of Water Resources Development (Bureau of

Water and Energy) at the regional level is an executive organ responsible for
the implementation of federal policies, strategies and action plans through
adapting them to the specific conditions of the Regions. In addition, Water
Bureaus exercise regulatory duties delegated to them by the Ministry. The
organization of each Bureau differs from region to region. At regional level
there are also institutions like Irrigation development bureaus, bureau of
health, water works construction enterprise, and bureau of agriculture and
rural development.
Zonal level: Zonal Water Resources Offices are the supporting arms of the
Regional Water Bureaus and are mandated to provide technical support to
Woreda Water Offices and Town Water Supply Offices. In addition, they are
responsible for coordinating activities, consolidating plans and reports of
woreda and relaying requests from Regional water bureaus and/or woreda
water offices. In general, Zonal Water Offices, in regions where they exist, are
the links between Regional Bureaus and woredas.
Woreda level: Woreda Water Resources Development Officesare responsible

for the investigation, design and implementation of small-scale water supply
schemes, whilst study and design of big schemes are undertaken by Bureaus
of Water.

2.5.2. Legal grounds for water sector governance
The legal framework for water resources management in Ethiopia covers
policy, strategy, proclamations, regulations and directives. The Ministry of
Water Resources has issued the Ethiopian water resources management
policy in 1999. The policy sets guidelines for water resources planning,
development and management. The overall goal of the policy is to enhance
and promote all national efforts towards the efficient, equitable and
optimum utilization of available water resources of the country for significant
socioeconomic development on sustainable basis.
The Ethiopian Water Resources Management Proclamation No.197/2000 is

the basic legal instrument governing the management, planning, utilization
and protection of water resources in Ethiopia. This proclamation has been
supplemented by the Ethiopian water resources management regulations
issued in 2005 under Proclamation No.115/2005. It elaborates on issuance
and administration of permits for different water uses, construction works
and waste discharge. With the legalization of the establishment of River
Basin Councils and Authorities by proclamation No.534/2007, powers and
responsibilities rested in MoWR to manage the waters of the basins is
delegated to the respective River Basin Organizations (RBOs). Through these
organizations, water resources planning and management function will
be decentralized. It envisages phase-by-phase establishment of RBOs and
describes the provision that RBOs will have a two- tier organizational set-up,
i.e., Basin High Councils (BHCs) and Basin Authorities (BAs). While BHCs are
the highest policy and strategic decision-making body, the BAs will serve as
administrative and technical arms of BHCs.
As described in the proclamation, the objectives of the councils and authorities

shall be to promote and monitor the integrated water resources management
process in the river basins falling under their jurisdictions with a view to
using of the basins’ water resources for the socio-economic welfare of the
people in an equitable and participatory manner, and without compromising
the sustainability of the aquatic ecosystems. Apart from these government
institutions, there are enterprises, NGOs and private organizations working
on water resources development. These include: Water Works Design and
Supervision Enterprise, Ethiopian Water Works Construction Enterprise, and
others.

2.5.3. Challenges related to water sector governance
Although frequent restructuring of Water institutionswith the objective
of bringing about efficiency, effectiveness, linkages, coordination
andcollaboration is a common phenomenon in Ethiopia, there is still lack of
effectivecoordination among stakeholders in general. Coordination among
key stakeholders such asFederal and Regional Public water institutions,
NGOs,multilateral and bilateral agenciesand the private sector is still an issue
that needs improvement (UN-Water, 2004).
Like many other government institutions, the water sector institutions at

Federal and Regional levels are not properly and adequately staffed with the
right number and quality of trained and experienced staff. The fact that there is
a competition in the labour market for experienced and skilled professionals,
existing salary scales in the civil service and incentive schemes have failed
to attract the required professionals to the water sector institutions. Many
experienced civil engineers, economists, hydraulic engineers, irrigation
engineers, and others are leaving the sector for better pay elsewhere in the
country, mainly the NGOs, private sector and international organizations
(UN-Water, 2004).
There are significant institutional challenges that result in shortfall of plan

implementation. These include: lack of standardized approach across agencies
for mapping/monitoring existing projects; lack of project ownership; lack of
institutional memory; and insufficient technical staff. Decision makers also
do not have guidelines or systems for prioritizing investment decisions and
project pipelines, which prevents efficient ranking and budgeting based on
needs and resources (Awulachew, 2010).
WGC (2013) has made detail water governance capacity assessment for the
Awash River Basin Authority (ABA) and identified the following major gaps:
• The authority is working on a local and operational level, not on

regional/federal level;
• It is not cooperating or coordinating with other stakeholders/
institutions;
• ABA is invisible and unknown to many institutions and stakeholders;
• Organizational structure is not suitable for effective water management

in the whole basin;
• Basin High Council is not operational;
• No clear focus or prioritization of activities;
• No good connection between departments;
• Insufficient baseline knowledge available of water system functioning;
• Lack of skilled staff, especially in basin studies, monitoring, permitting
and finance;
• No good provision of information to stakeholders;
• No guidelines for enforcement of permits; and
• No guidelines for waste (water) discharge permitting
The study has proposed some measures to overcome these shortcomings of
the Authority in water governance:
• Develop a Business Plan, where institutional set-up, financial

mechanism and knowledge and skills (HR) are described;
• Develop a Basin Master Plan (with focus on water allocation, flooding,
water quality and monitoring) to get an overview of the water system
functioning, provide adequate information to others and interact with
stakeholders; and
• Implement coordination/cooperation by initiating and running
stakeholder platforms.
Generally, the water sector is suffering from major capacity constraints that
exist at all levels of government in the sector. Institutions are weak, afflicted
with insufficient and inadequate equipment, staff/skills shortages, poorly
motivated staff and a general lack of funds (AfDB, 2005).

3. Observed and projected hydrological variability and
changes
Hydrological variability is a natural variationthat exists within the hydrological
regime in the absence of any external forcing. Currently, however, hydrological
variability is no longer steady because of the impact of climate change, land
use change and other anthropogenic effects; and thus hydrology is changing
(Kundzewicz and Robson, 2004). The natural hydrological variability is as
important as hydrological change in areas where the range of variability is
highly extended, likein Ethiopia (Cheung et al., 2008). Variability is more
evident in rainfall than other hydrological variables in the country (Zeleke
et al., 2012). Nonetheless, hydrological variability and change are treated
together in the hydrological variables discussed below. This section discusses
observed variability and change in rainfall, streamflow, groundwater, soil
moisture, evapotranspiration, water quality, soil erosion, lakes, droughts and
floods.
3.1. Observed hydrological variability and change
3.1.1. Detection and attribution
Detection methods
The two most widely used tools in detecting hydrological changes are statistical
approaches and modeling. Trend, regime shift, frequency analysis and flow
duration curve analysis are widely used methods in statistical hydrological
change detection (Dahmen and Hall, 1990; Kunzewicz and Robson, 2004;
Westerberg et al., 2011). These detection methods consist of different
methodological procedures to differentiate whether changes are driven by
climate change or other anthropogenic effects; also there are procedures
to differentiate the natural variability from climate change induced impacts
(Burn and Hag Elner, 2002). Understanding the environment where data
are collected, nature of the data, methods used in pre-analysis will help for
application of appropriate change detection methods and procedures.
Changes in model calibration, in parameterization and simulation are some

of the tests carried out in modeling for hydrological change detection
(Madsen, 2000; Kundzewicz and Robson, 2004; Seibert and McDonnell,
2009; Gebrehiwot et al., 2013). Modeling approach is easier in identification
of climate change impacts than statistical approach; as it can adopt different
IPCC scenarios and analyze changes in hydrological responses (Mishra et
al., 2010). In addition, local people’s knowledge is used in assessing climate
change and land use change and their impacts on hydrology (Wilk, 2000;
Gebrehiwot et al., 2014b).
Attribution of hydrological variability and changes
The whole natural system in the globe, including water, has entered into
the new era called “Anthropocene”. Thus all natural systems are liable to be
impacted by human induced changes. Climate change, land use change and
population growth are the main attributes for changes ofnatural systems.
Water, among other natural systems, is the most stressed resource with
climate change impacts and other changes. Every partof the hydrological
cycle is affectedby climate change (Bates et al., 2008). Especially increased
evapotranspiration because of increased temperature and thus affecting
the patterns of rainfall are major climate change impacts in water stressed
countries of Africa (Oestigaard, 2011).
Hydrological variables are more troubled by impacts of climate changes in

sub-Saharan Africa than other parts of the world (Urama and Ozor, 2010).
This is mainly because of low level of water management facilities. Long-
term climatic change, land cover change, water resources development and
population pressure contributing to changes in hydrology over Africa (Mahe
et al., 2013). Analysis of observational records showed that most of the
hydrological variables were impacted by climate change. The Eastern African
region, where Ethiopia belongs, is already water scarce region. This region
is also frequently hit by droughts and floods which are partly attributed to
recent changes in the climate (Bates et al., 2008).
Hydrological changes induced by land use change and population growth are
also prominent in eastern Africa and in Ethiopia (Urama and Ozor, 2010; Hurni
et al., 2005). Though, land use change and population growth have enormous
impacts on hydrology, climate change impacts are bigger with special effects
on hydrological regimesin the region (Bates et al., 2008).

Uncertainties in data and data analysis
Uncertainty in data and data analysis plays a major role in identification and
attribution of hydrological changes, such as what really is changing and how
modest prediction can be made based on observed records. Uncertainty in
hydrology could arise by many factors which could have particular or cumulative
effect on hydrological change analysis (Di Baldassare and Montanari, 2009).
Observational errors, weak representation of spatiotemporal variability,
methodological errors and model uncertainties have impacts on studies
related to hydrological changes. Errors in data acquisition and analysis lead
to ill design of water management infrastructure and hydrological prediction.
Hydrological data collection is undertaken by the Ministry of Water, Irrigation

and Energy in Ethiopia. Staff gauge readings are recorded twicea day, at dawn
and at dusk. Rating curve equations are then developed using current meters
readings taken three or four times per year and equations updated from
discharge measurements. River channel cross-sections and the levels of the
staff gauges areresurveyed after each rainy season from local benchmarks.
Finally, discharge in volume per unit time is computed using updated
rating curve formulae. The data collected are subsequently subjected to
pre-processing and quality control. But, uncertainties and errors could still
persist in the available database. However, practical applications of these
procedures remain uncertain at all places and at all time. This in turn leads of
the complexity of the uncertainty in data generation and processing.
Another data-related problem is the scarcity of data to represent the different

eco-climatic conditions of the country, and adoption of western based
models and tools (Griensven et al., 2012); theseare two main sources of
uncertainties in hydrological change analysis. Many of the reviews indicated
below includedplotting and inspecting, screening, missing data analysis
and homogeneity testing to evaluate the correctness of data used in the
respective studies.

3.1.2. Rainfall
General
Rainfall is highly variable both spatially and temporally in Ethiopia (Zeleke et

al., 2012) (Figures 7 & 8). The monsoonal rainfall has bi-modal distribution in
the northeast, east and southeast part of the country; while unimodal rainfall
distribution isfound in the southwest and northwest of the country. The main
rainy season, June-September (summer, Kiremt), remains largely common
over the country.Moisture transport with the airmasses coming from Indian
Ocean, the Congo Basin and the Red Sea are responsible for the rain that falls
in Ethiopia (Viste and Sorteberg, 2013a). Annual average rainfall is about 1200
mm in the highlands of the country; while it goes below 100 mm towards the
southeastern lowlands (Figure 7). About 74% of the annual rain falls during
Kiremt (Cheung et al., 2008); while about 16% falls during February – May
(Belg) and the rest 10% is distributed over the rest of the months.
Variability
The spatial variation of the rainfall distribution is mainly governed by the

changes in the position and direction of the moisture carrying air masses. The
inter-annual variability of rainfall also depends on the amount of moisture
transported by the different air masses to the highlands (Viste and Sorteberg,
2013b). The intra-annual peaks follow definite pattern; summer is wet,
whereas winter is dry. The inter-annual variability has no definite pattern,
but having peaks every 6-10 years. Lowest peaks of rainfall were registered in
1984, 1990 and 2000. In the northwestern highlands of Ethiopia, the Kiremt
rain becomes below average during El Nino times (Conway, 2005). The Belg
rain shows higher variability than Kiremt rain over the country (Cheung et al.,
2008).
The spatial variability is more pronounced given the country’s wide range of
topography, climatic and ecosystem regimes. Ethiopia has 6 rainfall regimes;
where annual rainfall ranges from < 100mm yr-1 to 2000 mm yr-1 (Figure
7) (Berhanu et al., 2013; www.ethiomet.gov.et, 2014). Rainfall decreases
along the way from southwestern part of the country to northeastern
and southeastern parts. Wagesho et al. (2012) found that rainfall showed

inconsistent pattern of trend among some of the stations in rift valley part
of the country. The inconsistency could be attributed to orographic effects,
climate change and data uncertainty.
Trends and other changes
There is a direct relationship between climate change and rainfall. The

warming up of the atmosphere leads to enhanced evapotranspiration which
in turn leads to changes in amount, intensity, duration and pattern of rainfall
(Treberth, 2011). Mostly, the trend of rainfall records in Ethiopia showed
non-significant changes in the last half-a-century (Figure 8) (Conway, 2005;
Cheung et al., 2008; Bewket, 2009; Shang et al., 2011; Wagesho et al., 2012;
Mellander et al., 2013). Conway (2005) indicated that the annual rainfall over
the northwestern highlands showed an increasing trend from 1905 to 1965,
then decreasing trend till 1984 and started increase after 1985 to 1990s.
Some variables like the inter- and intra- annual variability, rainfall duration
and intensity are the most important rainfall variables in the country in
relation to impacts of climate change (Haile et al., 2011; Mellander et al.,
2013). Cheung et al. (2008) indicated that the Kiremt rains were decreasing
in the southwest of the country; whereas Mellander et al. (2013) indicated
Belg rains were decreasing in the same part of the country. Cheung et al.
(2008) and Bewket (2009) found a slight decrease of the annual rainfall in
the recent decades in the northern highlands of Ethiopia over the last half-a-
century. The timing and the onset of rainfall are responsible for the observed
changesin some variables of the rainfall and in some areas of the country
(Cheung et al., 2008). For instance, the onset of rainfall is negatively related
to rainfall intensity in the northwestern highlands of Ethiopia (Mellander et
al., 2013).

Figure 7 Different rainfall (mm yr-1) regimes across Ethiopia; y-axis and x-axis are
showing longitude and latitude respectively.
Source: NMA (2013).
Rainfall is the most important limiting factor in agricultural production systems

of low technology countries like Ethiopia. Rainfall variability has more severe
effect on the national economy than drought and other hydrological impacts
(World Bank, 2006). The variability of rainfall pattern is highly correlated
with the GDP of the country. The temporal variability of rainfall has been
a major cause for fluctuation and failure of cereal production over the last
a few decades (Bewket, 2009). Admasu (2004) also indicated that rainfall
variability is highly correlated with production of barley and wheat in the
central highlands of the country.

Figure 8 Trend of annual rainfall over Addis Ababa (upper panel) and over the coun-
try as summarized from 13 watersheds (lower panel).
Source: Conway et al., (2004); Cheung et al. (2008).
3.1.3. Stream flow
Gauging and records of stream flow
Ethiopia lies in high rainfall tropical and sub-tropical regions of Africa (Figure
9). Because of the high rainfall, there are many streams flowing from the
uplands to the low lands. There are 12 river basins with a flow amount of ca
124 x 109 m3 yr-1, where75% of the flow comes from three rivers (Abbay, Baro-
Akobo and Omo-Ghibe) (Figure 10, Table 8). The total gauge stations of streams
are ca 550 in the 12 basins; where 80% of these stations are operational
(www.mowr.gov.et/2014). However, most streams in the country are yet to
be gauged. Denser gauge stations are found in the Abbay basin where 35%
of the streams have hydrological records at daily basis. Most of the gauging
stations are installed since 1960s when the US Bureau of Reclamation (USBR)

was collaborating for large scale water resource assessment. There were also
few stations installed before 1960 at the outlets and major junctions of the
main rivers. The Hydrological Department at the Ministry of Water, Irrigation
and Energy is responsible for collection, archiving, processing and delivery of
stream flow data.
Figure 9 Rainfall/surplus water distribution across Africa
Source: UNEP (2010).
River Basins
Rivers originating from the mountainous highlands adjacent to the rift valley
flow further to the periphery of the country. So, rivers from the northwestern

highlands flow towards southern and western periphery of the country; while
rivers from the southeastern highlands flow towards southern and eastern
periphery of the country. Major flow generating river basins, among the 12,
are discussed as follows.
Abbay: The Abbay basin is located in the central, west and northwest part of
the country (Figure 10). It lies between 7045Ι – 12045Ι latitude and 34005Ι –
39045Ι longitude. Abbaystarts from Lake Tana (the biggest lake of the country)
and flows towards Sudan and consists of the largest flow amount, ca 45% of
the country’s total flow. Abbay basin covers 18% of the area of the country.
Abbay generates the biggest quantity of the Nile water (more than 62%
[Mohamed et al., 2005]). There are 160 established gauge stations in the
Basin; out of which131 of them are operational.
Awash: The Awash basin starts around the mountains close to Ambo some
100 km to the west of Addis Ababa. It flows to the eastern part of the country
acrossthe Rift Valley floor to the northeast. Awash basin stretches from 4195
m asl at Ginchi area west of Addis Ababa to Lake Abhe at 210 maslclose to the
border of Djibouti (Taddese et al., ILRI). Awash basin is the most utilized river
basinof Ethiopia for the purpose of water resources development. Ninety
seven gauge stations are found in the basin, out of which 72 of them are
functional (www.mowr.gov.et/2014).
Baro-Akobo: The Baro-Akob is located in the southwest. Despite sharing less

area coverage within the country than Abbay, Awash, Omo-Ghibe, Genale-
Dawa and Wabe-Shebele; it generates the largest specific discharge in the
country. It flows towards SouthSudan and joins the Nile proper. There are 32
functional gauge stations in the basin.
Genale-Dawa: The Genale-Dawabasin is located in the southern part of the

country (Figure 10). It is the largest basin after Wabi-Shebele and Abbay
(Awulachew et al., 2007). The flow starts from the second highest peak
mountain of the country – Mount Batu (4385 m asl) in the Bale Massif. It flows
to Somalia. The Genale-Dawa has 36 gauge stations which are operational
out of 38 originally established.
Omo-Ghibe: The Omo-Ghibeflow starts from the southwest part of the

country. This area generates the highest flow for all Omo-Ghibe, Abbay

and Baro-Akobo. It ends at Lake Turkana (500 masl) in Kenya after flowing
south-wards. It flows from a 4200 m aslMount Ghuge in the southwest. In
theOmo-Ghibe basin there are 57 gauging stations, but only46 of them are
operational.
Rift Valley Lakes Basin: It is located in the centrallowland part of the country.
It is characterized by rich biodiversity. Most of the wildlife reserves and lakes
of the country are found in this basin. The basin covers about 52 000 km2.
The elevation ranges from 500 m asl to 3000 m asl. This basin is more known
for its rich groundwater resources rather than stream flows. However, the
groundwater is fluoride rich. There were 70 gauge stations established in the
beginning, but only54 of them are functioning.
Tekeze: The Tekeze river basin is located in the northern part of the country,
and it is one of the three rivers flowing from Ethiopia to the Nile. It is bordered
by MerebRiver (partly located in Eritrea) to the north and by Abbay to the
south. Tekeze River starts flowing from the highest mountain of the country,
RasDashen (4620 m asl) and drops to a lowland of 500 m asl before leaving
to the Sudan. Tekezedrains the most rugged and dissected topography of
the country, mainly in Gondar and Tigray. Among the 40 gauging stations
established in the basin, all are functional except one.
Wabi-Sheble: The Wabi-Shebele is the largest basin in the country in terms of

area coverage (202 700 km2) (Awulachew et al. 2007). It starts flowing from
central part of Arsi-Bale Mountains to the dry lowlands of Ethiopian Somali
Region and then to Somalia. Thirty gauge stations originally established and
20 more added and all the 50 stations are presently operational.

Figure 10 River basins of Ethiopia; separated by broken lines.
Table 8 River basins and their respective area, population and runoff characteristics
Rivers Basin area Runoff Runoff in depth Sediment in m3

(km2) (mm yr-1) 106
(m3 109 yr-1)
Abbay 199,812 54.8 274.3 40
Awash 112,696 4.9 43.5 19
Aysha 2,223 - - -
Baro-Akobo 75,912 23.6 310.9 10
Danakil 74,002 0.9 12.2 -
Genale-Dawa 171,042 5.9 34.5 30
Mereb-Gash 5,900 0.6 101.7 1
Ogaden 77,121 - - -
Omo-Ghibe 79,000 16.6 210.1 120
Rift Valley 52,739 5.6 106.2 8
Tekeze 82,350 8.2 99.6 5
Wabe-Shebele 202,697 3.2 15.8 19
Source: www.mowr.gov.et/2014; Awulachew et al. (2007); Woube (1999).

Variability and trends of stream flow
Changes in stream flow depend on scale, location, climatic regime, and the
method of detection. Variability and changes of stream flow over the past
thousands of years in East Africa is highly related with the rainfall/climate
changes associated with the El Nino Southern Oscillation (Gasse, 2000).
Changes in rainfall force manifold changes of stream flow in the East African
region. Expected changesof hydrology, which are increased runoff and
reduced base flow (Melesse et al., 2010; Gebrehiwot et al., 2014a) are variable
across scales and location in the country. Legesse et al. (2003) found a 30%
reduction of simulated discharge with a scenario of 10% change of rainfall,
while a 15% decrease in simulated discharge if air temperature increases
by 1.50C in southern part of Ethiopia. The effective rainfall or stream flow
generation is highly dependent on the pattern of rainfall (Figure 11). A 500
mm cumulative rainfall has been found as an effective rainfall in generating
streamflow in the highlands of Ethiopia (Liu et al., 2008).
Long term records of stream flow do not show any detectable trends
in most rivers (Figure 12). However, some of the variables of stream flow
like runoff coefficient and peak discharge have shown increment over the
years (Senay et al., 2009; Gebrehiwot et al. 2014a). The increased runoff
coefficient has resulted in increment of annual flow to downstream areas
as well. Such changes are partially attributed to land degradation and land
use change (Hurni et al., 2005; Senay et al., 2009). The common pattern of
land use change is from natural vegetation to cultivated or degraded land.
Urbanization caused an 80% increase of runoff coefficient between 1984 and
2002 in the upstream part of Awash basin; where the main urbanization refers
to the city of Addis Ababa and its surrounding (Berhanu and Ayalew, 2013).
Gebrehiwot et al. (2014a) found that few changes were detected in low flow,
high flow and low flow index, which are following inconsistent direction of
trend among 12 rivers in northwestern highlands of Ethiopia. Trend analysis
in some of the streams in the Abbay basin showed decline of low flow from
1990s on wards (Melesse et al., 2010; Gebrehiwot et al., 2014a).Awash River
showed reduction of flow amount between 1968 and 1997, mainly because
of water utilization in the upstream (Berhanu and Ayalew, 2013).

Seasonal changes are more pronounced than annual changes – such changes
are more important in areas of low technology agrarian community like
in Ethiopia. For instance, stream flow reduction in spring (Belg) season
contributed to more than 75% of the annual changes in Abbay annual flow
between 1912 and 1987 (Conway and Hulme, 1993). A specific discharge of
0.6 m3 s-1 has been found as a 10-year recurrent low flow in the streams of
northern Ethiopia (Melesse et al., 2010). Different pattern of trends were
observed along different classes of time scales in the last half a century
(Melesse et al., 2010; Gebrehiwot et al., 2013; Gebrehiwot et al., 2014a).
Historical trends and variability are better explained when community

knowledge is incorporated in hydrological analysis. Forty-two (1960-2002)
years hydrological records in Koga didnot show any detectible changes;
but, community knowledge revealed that the change of the hydrologywas
masked by a wetland located just above the gauging station. This suggestion
was drawn from a community knowledge analysis (Gebrehiwot et al. 2010).
Stream flow across scale and location
Variability and changes in flow regimes are more pronounced at small spatial
scales than big rivers (Melesse et al., 2010. Hurni et al. (2005) found that
the long-term trends of stream flow/runoff are highly influenced by land
degradation and population growth at plot and micro-watershed levels. As
forested landscapes werechangedinto cultivated lands, runoff increased by
5-40 times. Farm level or small scale watersheds showed changes in stream
flow, which are not consistent across locations in the country (Hurni et al.,
2005; Bayabil et al., 2010). In semi-arid parts of the country, soil conservation
activities induced reduction of runoff and increased baseflow (Hurni et al.,
2005). Bayabil et al. (2010) also indicated that topography plays a key role in
changes of runoff at small scale than land use and climate.

N
Figure 11 Spatial and seasonal variability of stream flow across Ethiopia
Figure 12 Time series flow data for some rivers in the northwestern highlands of
Ethiopia
Source: Gebrehiwot et al. (2014a).
The variability of flows across basins is high. Among the 12 basins; Abbay,
Baro-Akobo, Omo-Ghibe and Tekeze show higher seasonality than Genale-

Dawa and Wabi-Shebele (Figure 11). Johnston (2012) revealed that the
northwestern highland rivers showed significant flow difference before and
after 1960; where as Abbay’s flow decreased by 10%, Baro-Akobo’s showed
no change, and Tekeze flow decreased by 30% after 1960. The middle part
of Awash basin showed increment of annual flow in some of the tributaries
while reduction was evident in annual flow in some others (Berhanu and
Ayalew, 2013). The reduction of annual flow in some parts of the basin could
be because of the considerable expansion of upstream water resources
development.
On the other hand, spatial and inter-annual variability are widely observed
than trends over time; this has been seen in some of the gauged streams in
the northwestern highlands of Ethiopia (Figure 12). Stream flow is variable
across stations, similar to the variability of rainfall (Figure 11). The spatial
distribution of stream flow follows the rainfall regime classification indicated
above. Higher flow amount is from the southwestern part of the country, and
75% of total annual flow of the country is observed from Abbay, Omo and
Baro.
2.1.4. Groundwater
The distribution of available groundwater across Ethiopia is not well known

(Figure 13). The groundwater of the East Africa region is governed by
the hydrogeology matrix in and out of the rift valley system and adjacent
highlands (Kebede et al., 2007; Ayenew et al., 2008). The rift valley system
divides Ethiopia in to three broad topographical features – the northwestern
highlands, the southeastern highlands and the rift valley lowland. The age
of Ethiopian groundwater is classified as modern – not older than 3000 yrs
(Kebede et al., 2007).
The total annual groundwater recharge of the country is estimated to be

more than 28x109 m3 (www.mowr.gov.et/2014).The rift valley systems are
endowed with deep groundwater availability (GWMATE, 2011) (Figure 13).
Fifty percent of the recharge of groundwater of the rift valley system comes
from the highlands (Kebede et al., 2007). There is high recharging rate in the
highlands of Ethiopia where permeable rocks are found; however, the aquifer
is shallow because of the fast discharge to the rift valley system (Ayenew

et al., 2008). This phenomenon is responsible for creation of springs at the
boundary of the faults at the foot of mountains. Recent studies around
Addis Ababa revealed deep groundwater resources in the highlands and
escarpments of the Rift Valley.
East Africa, including Ethiopia, is next to Southeast Asia and North Africa
in groundwater depletion (Doll et al., 2014). However, in many reports,
groundwater is yet to be exploited to optimum level (Awulachew et al.,
2007). Because of land degradation in the highlands, the trend of recharge of
groundwater is reducing; because of this, springs are drying up in downstream
areas. Recently, watershed management programs in the highlands are
creating conducive environment for the recharge and some springs have
reappeared. Long lasting well-water production is related with fault lines and
permeable sediments, both in the rift valley and in the highlands (Ayenew
et al., 2008).The big gap in knowledge about the distribution and extent of
groundwater hinders to draw the trend of groundwater utilization. Megetch-
Seraba, in northern Ethiopia, is the largest project so far known designed
to irrigate 4 000 ha of land through pumping groundwater (www.mowr.gov.
et/2014).
The best identification mechanism to know the chemical composition of

groundwater is computing mean residence times (MRT) (Sani et al., 2012);
however, MRT has not been well studied either in the highlands or in the
rift system. Most of the highlands groundwater quality is calcium-magnesium
carbonate water, while sodium carbonate is found in most of the rift valley
lowland groundwater (Ayenew et al., 2008). Large amount of dissolved
salt and alkaline water are common in the rift valley groundwater (British
Geological Survey, 2001). The alkalinity is because of the high concentration
of fluoride. Fluoride concentration goes up to 60 mg/l in some groundwater
samples (Ayenew et al., 2008).

Figure 13 Groundwater availability in Ethiopia.
Source: Reproduced from British Geological Survey (2001).
3.1.5. Evapotranspiration
Knowledge of the extent of evapotranspiration is essential for physical and

agricultural water management. There are no details of evapotranspiration
estimates for different landscapes in Ethiopia as compared to rainfall and
streamflow. The available estimates are scarce and depend on secondary
sources (remote sensing analysis, calculations based on other climatic
variables). Satellite data analysis using SEVIRI in East Africa region, including
Ethiopia, showed good estimate of reference evapotranspiration when
validated with ground-measurements (R2 = 0.73) (Sun et al., 2011).
There is high spatial variability in evapotranspiration in the country like

the climatic variables indicated above (Figures 14 & 15). There are six
potential evapotranspiration regimes (Figure 14). The mean annual potential
evapotranspiration ranges from 2350 mm in the lowlands to 620 mm in the
highland mountains (Berhanu et al., 2013). Evapotranspiration follows the
vegetation eco-regions and topographic elevation of the country (Demel,

2002). Potential evapotranspiration is much higherthan rainfall in most
lowland parts of the country. For instance 1800 mm of annual potential
evapotranspiration is estimated in most (lowland) parts of the Awash Basin
where the annual rainfall is less than 850mm (Berhanu et al., 2013).
Temperature is the main climatic variable used in the analysis ofthe trend
of potential evapotranspiration. Trends and changes of temperature are
better studied than evapotranspiration over the country. Temperature has
been increasing in many parts of the country, as it has been the case in many
places in the world (www.ethiomet.gov.et, 2014). Mean annual temperature
increased by more than 10C in the years between 1960 and 2006 (McSweeney
et al., 2010). Mekasha et al. (2014) investigated the trend of temperature
from 1967 to 2008 for 11 stations across the country; and they found that
daily maximum temperature increased in all stations except two stations,
while daily minimum temperature partly increased and partly decreased. In
addition, the frequency of coldest nights, those causing frost, decreased in
the years between 1960s and 2000s (ACCRA, 2011).
Figure 14 Potential evapotranspiration (mm yr-1) regimes across Ethiopia

Source: Berhanu et al. (2013).

Figure 15 Season variability of potential evapotranspiration insome of the rivers in
the Abbay Basin.
3.1.6. Soil erosion, sedimentation and soil moisture
Historical background to soil erosion research and conservation
Soil erosion has been happening for centuries in Ethiopia (Derbyshire et al.,
2003). However, it has been accelerated (> 42 t ha-1 yr-1) since a century ago
following the fast growth of population and enhanced deforestation (Hurni,
1988). Soil erosion is widespread all over the highlands of the country, which
covers some 43% of the land mass. The Ethiopian highlands are inhabited
by about88% of the total population and 95% of regularly cultivated land is
found here (Bewket, 2007). The high population pressure and steep hillside
cultivation are the major causes of accelerated soil erosion.
Farm level soil erosion
Small scale watershed (farm level) soil erosion has been drawing the biggest
attention in the last decades in soil erosion research and conservation
activities. Soil erosion and conservation activities were given more emphasis
for land degradation mitigation which is impacting agricultural production in

the highlands of the country. The Soil Conservation Research Program (SCRP)
was initiated in 1981 by the Swiss Agency for Development and Co-operation
at small scale watersheds/farm plots to support the assessment and
conservation endeavors which were started by the Ethiopian Government
(SCRP, 2000). SCRP did a comprehensive assessment of soil erosion on test
plots and small watersheds, mainly in agricultural landscapes for decades.
There were 6 stations throughout the country, where 4 of them have more
detail data. From the records of soil erosion from these stations it seems that
the trend of soil erosion has not been changing (Figure 17); however, the
cumulative eroded soil increased, and this is very critical as the highlands
have thin shallow soils.
Figure 16 Time series of sediment load from experimental watersheds of Soil

Conservation Research Project (SCRP); Dizi’s trend is shown in the secondary axis
Source: SCRP (2000).
Stream/river erosion and sediment load
Soil erosion and sedimentation from gullies, stream banks and big river
channels has not been accounted for in many research documents and

reports. However, it is estimated to be a serious cause of land degradation
in the country (Tebebu et al., 2010). Though the sources and impacts are not
well known, there are records of suspended sediment for the major rivers at
different river discharge gauge stations (Table 8). Table 8 shows the annual
average soil loss and suspended sediment for two different time steps for
major rivers of the country.
3.1.7. Soil moisture
Soil moisture is an important environmental factor for agricultural activity

in mid- and high-altitude areas of the country. Soil moisture variability is
highly dependent on the pattern and level of rainfall, humidity, temperature,
and physical properties of the soil. Soil moisture reaches up to 80 cm deep
in sandy loam soil texture in the highlands of Ethiopia (Kamara and Haque,
1987). The trend of soil moisture has been increasing in areas where water
harvesting and soil conservation structures are constructed (IWMI, 2009);
while the trend of soil moisture is decreasing in areas where soil degradation
is advancing (Hurni et al., 2005). On the other hand, because of the recent
increase in implementation of soil and water conservation practices, soil
moisture has been increasing in many parts of the country (Figure 17)
(Herweg and Ludi, 1999; Haile et al., 2006).
Figure 17 Soil moisture improvement after soil conservation practices in Abraha-

we-Atsebeha watershed, northern Ethiopia.

3.1.8. Water quality
Groundwater is the source of water supply in many parts of the country. The
two most notable water quality problems are siltation and contamination of
groundwater. Siltation and groundwater contamination are causing problems
for accessibility and utilization of household water supply, irrigation,
hydropower, and residual soil moisture. Contamination of groundwater
includes flourdification and salinization. The trend of potable water usage has
increased immensely in the last 20 years; from 13% to 52% of the population
(www.data.UNICEF.org, 2014). One of the critical problems of groundwater is
high concentration of fluoride in the rift valley system and some parts of the
highlands.
Sanitation is the worst among all water developmental aspects in the country;
Ethiopia is the least among developing countries. The overall sanitation
coverage of the country was<5% in 1990; it grew to ca 25% in 2012 (www.
data.UNICEF.org, 2014). However, there is an improvement in general when
the trend of sanitation is considered. The country’s sanitation improved from
2% in 1990 to 24% in 2012; it is from 1% to 23% when the rural sanitation
improvement is considered (www.data.UNICEF.org, 2014).
3.1.9. Lakes and wetlands
Ethiopia has more than 20 fresh and crater lakes; more than 12 major
wetlands (Awulachew et al., 2007). The figure is far higher in some literatures
(Ayenew, 2009). Most of the lakes are distributed in the Rift Valley area. The
wetlands are more concentrated in the southwest part of the country. Lakes
and wetlands are the most threatened hydrological systems in the country.
3.1.10. Droughts and floods
Droughts and floods have been environmental problems in Ethiopia since

historical times. Studies on Ethiopian lakes inferred the occurrence of droughts
which ended the kingdom of old Egypt (Walker, 2011). Ethiopia, being in
sub-humid to arid region, as well as experiencing high land degradation, is
highly prone to droughts, floods and other natural disasters. Droughts and
floods have been experienced in the last 30-60 years over Eastern Africa,

including Ethiopia as a result of extreme rainfall (IPCC, 2014). The magnitude
of droughts and floods are becoming higher and more frequent in Ethiopia
since the 1970s.
Droughts and floods are dependent on the variability of rainfall anomalies.

Zaroug et al. (2014) linked the occurrence of droughts and floods in northern
highlands of Ethiopia with the occurrence of El Nino and La Nina. They found
that there is a likely occurrence of floods when El Nino is followed by La Nina,
as well as a highly likely occurrence of drought when El Nino event occurs
during April to June. Wagesho et al. (2012) also noted the strong connection
of floods and increased global positive sea level temperature anomalies;
while droughts were related to negative sea level temperature anomalies.
Droughts and floods are the biggest natural disasters in Ethiopia. Both
droughts and floods are apparent and recurrent in the country. Drought
has been known for causing disastrous famines. Millions of people were
displaced, starved and died because of droughts and floods (World Bank,
2006).Droughtsare often the causes of food deficit and starvation in Ethiopia.
From 1950 to 2009, Ethiopia has been hit by 20 major droughts; the worst
among all African countries. The worst drought was in the year 2002/2003,
which affected 13 million people (20% of the total population) (Figure 18).
Floods are major problems in the low lying areas. Human and animal
lives, agricultural lands, settlements and infrastructure are affected. The
occurrence of floods is by far more frequent than droughts (1 drought event
to 5 flood events) (www.gfdrr.org, 2011). However, the impacts of floods are
far more less than impacts of droughts. For instance, since 1999, 3 droughts
and 7 floods were registered; where droughts affected ca 20 million people
and floods affected ca 0.9 million people (www.gfdrr.org, 2011). Because of
the transformation in disaster management, consequences of droughts and
floods have been checked partly. Ethiopia has started disaster management
system since the mid 1970s (Abebe, 2009). Until the end of the 1980s, disaster
management has been implementedthrough traditional-rehabilitation type;
while after the 1990s it has developed into a participatory institutional
strategy. Recently, floods and droughts, as well as other disasters are better
managed than ever.

Figure 18 Events of droughts and floods with impacts on more than 100,000 people
Source: www.preventionweb.net/year
*Though the number of flood-affected people is low compared to drought-affected

people, the number of floods is more frequent than that of droughts.
3.2. Drivers of change
Different anthropogenic and natural processes cause changes in water

resources. Climate change is one among different drivers of change in water
resources. Changes in water resources extend from local to global scales.
However, changes are more complex in variable hydrological systems like in
Ethiopia. The Ethiopian water resources are subjected to different types of
change-drivers. These drivers are classified as non-climatic and climatic.
3.2.1. Non-climatic drivers
Non-climatic drivers of change of water resources include land degradation,

land use change, agricultural water use, household water consumption,
dams, and other water use infrastructure (UNESCO, 2011). Water resources
are highly affected by these human induced global to local scale drivers.
Many low income countries, such as Ethiopia have been enjoying a fast
growing economy in the last decade and more likely to continue for decades

to come. The country has been attaining more than 10% annual economic
growth in the past decade (World Bank, 2013). Ethiopia is now concluding a
five year Growth and Transformation Plan (GTP) (2010-2015); and the next
five year GTP is being developed (www.mofed.gov.et/08/03/2015). Water
infrastructures are of the leading planned investments in the activities of the
second GTP as well. Future water will be changed and modified in different
ways by the development activities. Few studies have studied this issue.
3.2.2. Climatic drivers
The impact of climate change predominantly boils down to water resources.

With changes in climate continuing for the coming century, the type and rate of
impacts on water resources is likely to be unprecedented and overwhelming.
All changes happening on rainfall and temperature have various effects on
available water resources. Rainfall is the main source of water on the earth’s
surface while temperature change modifies the water release from the earth
surface to the atmosphere. Both rainfall and temperature are changing and
highly likely to continue changing in the years to come (IPCC, 2013) (Figure
19). Climate change impacts are impeding African countries’ development
with different but uncertain range. Climate change affects water and other
natural resources directly; Ethiopia will face 1.25 0C change per 1 0C change
over the globe (Figure 19).

Figure 19 Global temperature and precipitation change in reference to a 0C change
in temperature over the next century using Coupled Model Intercomparison Project
Phase 3 (CMIP3).
Source: IPCC (2013)
Because of changes in rainfall patterns and temperature; stream flow,

available soil water, groundwater recharge and water quality are changing.
These changes will alter future water demand and consumption. Water
demand and consumption will be critically impacted by anthropogenic
drivers, as well. The changes in water resource variability are expected to be
intense after 2025, especially in African countries (UNESCO, 2011).
3.3. Methodological developments in hydrological impact as-

sessment
A two-stage procedure is followed in many studies of hydrological impacts

of climate change. This is downscaling global and regional predictions
(GCMs and RCMs) followed by hydrological modeling. There is other form of
approach that considers development of different scenarios based on past
and existing trends in the hydrological regime; then predicting the future

(Olsson et al., 2013). The later approach works for studies targeting impacts
of non-climatic drivers.
Different future greenhouse gas emission scenarios are developed by IPCC

SRES (IPCC Special Report on Emissions Scenarios) (IPCC, 2000). These
scenarios are bases for using GCMS and RCMS for prediction of future impacts,
including on water resources. Meanwhile, limitations of these scenarios upon
downscaling for water resources impacts are well acknowledged (Wilby et
al., 2004). Prediction based studies have considered calibration of GCM or
RCM results with historical data to compromise with standardized emission
scenarios (Conway and Hulme, 1993; Adger et al., 2003; Kim et al., 2008;
Soliman et al., 2009 FAO, 2011; ). In some studies better performance of
models for averaged or summarized data resolutions is reported (Hasan and
Elshamy, 2011; Gebrehiwotet al., 2013). However, summarized or averaged
dataneed to be taken with caution for prediction of instantaneous flow
events; as these ones need higher resolution data.
The uncertainties and variability in rainfall distribution are the main challenges
for prediction models in Ethiopia (Conway and Hulme, 1993; Di Baldassare et
al., 2011). Ensemble model predictions are supposed to address most of the
uncertainties inherent in single model applications.
3.4. Projected risks, vulnerabilities and impacts in the water

sector
People in the developing world are more dependent on the water resource
variables which are highly exposed to impacts of climate change. This is
because of low technology, weak institutional capacity, higher reliance on
natural resources, and stressed water resources existing in the developing
world (Urama and Ozor, 2010). In most African countries rainfall variability is
the main driver for variability of streamflow and soil moisture (Adger et al.,
2003). Streamflow and soil moisture are critical conditions for agricultural
productivity. The variability of rainfall and streamflow itself varies across
spatiotemporal scales in Ethiopia (Conway and Hulme, 1993).

3.4.1. Temperature and rainfall
Temperature and rainfall are climate variables that predominately affect

water resources variability and availability. As Ethiopian economy is heavily
dependent on rain-fed agriculture, understanding how climate change will
affect temperature and rainfall variability is of paramount importance. Jury
and Funk (2013) have used different climate models to analyze trends of
temperature and rainfall over Ethiopia. According to their study, seasonal
rainfall of March to June shows small reduction across the southern Rift
Valley (3.50–80N, 380–420E) and steady decline of June to September rainfall
across western Ethiopia. The fact that these areas are highly populated and
characterized as high potential agricultural areas, the likely decline in rainfall
is of great concern. Area average air temperature for Baro river basin shows
steady upward trend (Figure 20). The average monthly rainfall shows only
slight increasing trend (Figure 21). Studies conducted by Asfaw et al. (2013) in
BaroAkobo Basin shows that increase in rainfall is likely to reach 24% between
2011 and 2050.
Figure 20 Observed and projected air temperature over Baro river basin
Source: Jury and Funk (2013)

Figure 21 Baro River Basin time series of observed and projected rainfall
Source: Jury and Funk (2013)

Figure 22Predictedchanges of rainfall over Ethiopia:
Figure 23 Predicted trend of rainfall, evapotranspiration and annual flow amount

in the Blue Nile river at Ethio-Sudan border
Source: McCartney and Girma (2012)

3.4.2. Water availability and streamflow
According to UNECA (2011), Ethiopia’s water availability per capita changes

from ca 2200 m3 in 1990 to ca 1000 m3 in 2025 because of climate change
and other drivers. However, soil moisture is expected to increase in many
parts of the highlands. This is also shown by Elshamy et al. (2009) that runoff
coefficient decreases by about 3.5% to the end of 21st C in reference to the
end of the 20th C.
Future changes of stream flowin Ethiopian rivers shows reduction of water

yield in most predictions. Kim et al. (2008) estimated that 14% reduction
of runoff will be expected with 3% increase in rainfall and 1.70C rise in
temperature; and 11% runoff reduction is expected with 6% increase in
rainfall and 2.60C increase in temperature. A study on the Blue Nile river flow
using 17 GCMs of IPCC 4th Assessment found that 11 of the models showed
a reduction of flow all along to the end of the century (Elshamy et al., 2009)
(Figure 23). However, there are local differences in the trend of stream flow
(Figure 24). Local differences could be attributed to differences in climatic
and physiognomic features of the country. In the coming mid of the century,
annual flow of Blue Nile river at Lake Tana is expected to decrease; whereas
downstream along the river course is expected to increase (McCartney and
Girma, 2012). Moreover, the pattern of changes differs between seasonal
flows. For instance, the flow of Didesa river, one of the tributaries of Blue
Nile River, shows increment of flows in autumn before decreased flow in
summer (Gebre et al., 2015). This is also supported by Mellander et al. (2013)
that Didesa river (Southern part of the Blue Nile) will be more seasonal than
the northern part of the Blue Nile basin. The general reduction of flow in
parts of the Blue Nile is more attributed to the increase in evapotranspiration
(Conway and Hulme, 1993).
Future annual flow change varies between -4 and 18% among the GCMs in
the watersheds of the Rift Valley as compared to the existing flows (Wagesho
et al., 2013). However, higher magnitude and frequency of extreme events
are common in most of the model predictions those applied in this part of
the country.

Figure 24 Predicted trend of annual flow amount in the different watersheds of
the Blue Nile River.
In general, Ethiopia will face two broad challenges with regard to water
availability. Climate change accompanied with rapid population growth
affects lowland pastoral areas with dramatic warming; while highlands could
face high and intense rainfall which in turn increases the available water
(USGS, 2012). Meanwhile the expected intense rainfall in the highlands is also
expected to exacerbate soil erosion and land degradation. Because of the
increased runoff in the headwaters, it will be less likely that transboundary
rivers suffer reduction of flow; even with increased water demands and
population growth (Kim et al., 2008).
Impacts of climate change on water resources are concerns for crop yield
failure and food insecurity in sub-Saharan Africa (Moreland and Smith, 2012).
Because of the increasing evapotranspiration and water use the groundwater
reserve in many parts of the rift valley system will be jeopardized both in
amount and quality (START, 2011).This is because that as evapotranspiration
increases the concentration of saline and other chemicals increases.

3.4.3. Water use and demands
Ethiopia is set out to reach middle income status by 2025 with the trend of
existing economic growth. However, trade logistics and energy supply will be
potential bottlenecks for future development endeavors. Water is and will be
the backbone for energy supply in the growing economy.
More than 165x109 m3 water is expected to be stored in the reservoirs

for hydropower and irrigation in the near future (McCartney et al., 2012).
Reservoirs for hydropower generation are expected to increase by 14 times
and irrigation needs will increase by 23 times in comparison to the existing
extent in the Blue Nile basin of Ethiopia (McCartney and Girma, 2012).
Such investments are highly exposed for increased evaporation due to the
increment of temperature. Amount of water from the reservoirs will reduce
by 0.8 x 109 m3 yr-1inthe end of the century due to increased evaporation loss
(McCartney et al., 2012).
3.4.4. Extreme events
As the climate continues to change, floods and droughts are most likely to
become more severe in many parts of Ethiopia (Urama and Ozor, 2010).
Future SPI (Standardized Precipitation Index) analysis for different time scales
showed that frequency, duration and severity of drought will increase in drier
areas; whereas reduced droughts will be expected in the wet areas of the
Blue Nile Basin (Kim et al., 2008). More floods are expected both from climate
change and urbanization in Africa (Douglas et al., 2008). Urban poor and
adjacent downstream communities will face severe impacts from flooding.
3.4.5. Water-energy-food nexus
Water, energy and food are indispensable for human well-being, poverty
eradication and sustainable development (FAO, 2014). Ethiopia has set
ambitious goals and targets in several sectors of the economy including
agriculture and energy to reach middle-income status by 2025. The country
has registered a double digit agricultural growth over the last decade. This
growth is driven by the implementation of a series of development strategies
and plans in the various sectors of the economy.With increasing population

growth demand forfood and energy also increases. As agriculture is the
primary source of national food supply increasing agricultural production is
required to be able to feed the growing population. This may be possible
through expansion of cultivated area and enhanced agricultural productivity.
In line with this, the country aims to increase cultivable land by 13%, crop
productivity by 30% and irrigation development by 400% (MoFED, 2010).
Productivity improvement requires integrated soil fertility management

through natural resources conservation and appropriate fertilizer use. On
the other hand, natural resources such as forests and soils are increasingly
being degraded. At the same time, the energy use which currently consists
of more than 90% biomass (firewood, charcoal, crop residue etc.) use is
shifting towards increasing use of electricity predominantly from large-scale
hydropower plants, with the aim to improve access to modern energy sources
(Karlberg et al., 2015). The traditional energy supply using biomass has the
implication of degradation of natural resources which in turn negatively
affects food production. The need for natural resources conservation and
increasing forest cover of the country is addressed in the Climate Resilient
Green Economy Strategy (CRGE) of the country.
The country is also heavily investing on the development of water resources

infrastructure such as dams and reservoirswhich could be used for
irrigation (food production) and hydropower generation (energy). However,
consumptive use of water for irrigation represents opportunity cost for
energy generation and supply.Hydropower development is considered as one
of the priority issues of the country as stipulated in the CRGE strategy. Energy
is needed in all sectors including agriculture for irrigation water pumping,
mechanization, fertilizer production and application.
The facts outlined above show that there is a close link between water-
energy and food which is being widely recognized globally since recently. This
suggests that there is a need for integrated management of the resources
to sustainably meet the needs in the different sectors. InEthiopia, however,
water, food and energy are predominantly managed as independent sectors,
with little consideration of their interdependence or their cumulative impact
on ecosystems (Stein et al., 2014). The water-energy-food nexus perspective
highlights the interdependence of water, food and energy systems and the

natural resources that underpin those systems (Figure 25). The approach aims
at reducing trade-offs and generating cobenefits for sustainable development.
Increasingly, it is recognized that unless their interdependencies are taken
into account these different sectors cannot be developed and managed in a
sustainable and effective way (FAO, 2014; Stein et al., 2014).
Figure 25 FAO approach to water – energy – food nexus
Source: FAO (2014)
Figure 25 demonstrates the water-energy-food nexus approach of FAO

which is a holistic vision of sustainability that recognizes and tries to strike
balances between the different goals, interests and needs of people and
the environment. Human beings exploit the natural resources to satisfy
development needs and nature responds in a complex manner to such
exploitation and interventions. This necessitates holistic management.

4. Adaptation and managing risks in the water sector
4.1. Introduction
There is a high level of scientific confidence that climate change is likely
to seriously affect the freshwater water resources of the earth, which will
subsequently lead to damages on human life, socioeconomic infrastructure
and environmental resources (IPCC, 2007). Semi-arid and arid areas are
particularly vulnerable to the impacts of climate change, where water is a
limiting factor for socioeconomic activities and environmental functions.
Areas that have low water infrastructure, particularly developing countries
are also vulnerable to the impacts of climate change. Climate change and
variability also affect water management practices by affecting the function
and operation of existing water infrastructure. Evidence from scientific
studies indicate that the negative impacts of climate change on freshwater
currently outweigh its potential positive impacts (ECE, 2009). Thus there
should be a change to meet the altered conditions and new ways of managing
water and designing to adjust with climate change and other human induced
environmental changes (IPCC, 2007).
Traditionally, hydrological design rules have been based on the assumption of

stationary hydrology, tantamount to the principle that the past is the key to
the future. This assumption is no longer valid due to the impacts of climate
change. The current procedures for designing water-related infrastructure
therefore have to be revised. Otherwise, systems would be over- or under-
designed, resulting in either excessive costs or poor performance (Kundzewicz
et al., 2007).
The development and implementation of adaptation strategies and risk

management in the water sector consists of a broad plan of actions and
could follow various approaches such as achieving the minimum level of
water security to provide sufficient quantity and quality of water for human
livelihoods, so as reducing vulnerability to climate risk (Sadoff and Muller,
2009). Thus, mainstreaming or development-first approach is proposed as an
appropriate adaptation for underdeveloped countries’ water sector (Oates
et al., 2011). Development and implementation of any adaptation policy
and strategy in the water resources sector should consider climate change

in the context of the many other increasing pressures on water resources
such as population growth, globalization, changing consumption patterns
and industrial development (ECE, 2009).
The development and implementation of adaptation strategies and measures

should be also based on the results of vulnerability assessments (ECE, 2009).
Adaptation procedures and risk management practices for the water sector
are being developed in some countries and regions (e.g. Caribbean, Canada,
Australia, Netherlands, UK, USA and Germany) that have recognized projected
hydrological changes with related uncertainties. In the UK, for example, design
flood magnitudes are being increased by 20% to reflect the possible effects of
climate change measures to cope with the increase of the design discharge.
For the Rhine in the Netherlands the current design flood magnitudes (15,000
to 16,000 m3/s) are planned to increase the design discharge to 18,000 m3/s
in the longer term, due to climate change (Kundzewicz et al., 2007).
There are also non climate-drivers that could affect both the quantity and
quality of fresh water resources and should be considered in adaptation
and risk management planning in the water sector. Some of the non-climate
drivers include: land use and land cover changes, urbanization, population
growth, economic development, industrialization, pollution, institutional
capacity and policy issues (Kundzewicz et al., 2007; Mukheibir, 2008).
Adaptation strategies in the water resources sector at the country level

should also include measures covering all the steps of the adaptation chain:
prevention, improving resilience, preparation, reaction/ response, and
recovery. Measures for prevention and improving resilience are related both
to the gradual effects of climate change and to extreme events. Preparation,
response, and recovery measures are chiefly relevant for extreme events
such as floods and droughts (ECE, 2009). Adaptation should also include
disaster risk reduction strategies that must be grounded in local knowledge
and communicated broadly so that every citizen is aware about possible
adaptation measures (IPCC, 2007).
It is also important to note that water is a vital natural resource that is used
by or affects almost all socioeconomic sectors and environmental functions,
thus, a very broad range of responses will be needed to the impacts of climate
change. Thus, to design and implement effective adaptation strategies in the

water sector, Mukheibir (2008) recommended a cross-sectoral approach and
a mix of structural and non-structural, regulatory and economic instruments,
and education and awareness-raising strategies should be developed to
tackle short-, medium- and long-term impacts of climate change. Thus,
adaptation policies and strategies should be developed within the context
of Integrated Water Resources Management (IWRM) (ECE, 2009). To address
the issues of uncertainty associated with climate change, win-win, no regret
and low regret measures should be chosen as priority adaptation strategies
(IPCC, 2007).
In developing countries where agriculture is the main economic activity

the impact of climate change on water resources is directly related to food
security, thus, special emphasis should also be given for agricultural water
management (ACPC, 2011). Agricultural water management embraces
a whole range of wider practices including in situ moisture conservation
(e.g. mulching) and ex situ water management (e.g. rainwater harvesting,
supplementary irrigation, irrigation and various techniques of wetland
development) (Amede and Haileslassie, 2010). Irrigated agriculture is
becoming an increasingly important intervention towards managing climate
variability and change, meeting the demands of food security, employment
and poverty reduction (Awlachew and Merry, 2005). Water governance
that refers to the wide range of social, economic, political, institutional,
administrative systems and decision-making processes and efficiencies
play important roles to regulate development and management of water
resources and provision of water services (IPCC, 2007) in the face of climate
change and variability.
In Ethiopia water resources management and climate change adaptation

planning and intervention should give much emphasis to hydrological
variability (droughts and floods) (World Bank, 2006; Oates et al., 2011).
Recognizing this, the government of Ethiopia has made some important
attempts to enhance the level of water security both through public water
supply both in the rural and urban areas, development of water management
systems: policies, regulations and programs, and development of water
infrastructure along the major river basins that could regulate extreme
hydrological events and to get economic benefit from hydropower and
irrigation developments (FDRE, 2011).

Some water resource developments can be considered as adaptation
measures to climate variability whilst others are principally adaptation to
increasing demand for water for economic development purposes. Some
progress has been made to address the water-related challenges by building
multipurpose water reservoirs along major rivers, rainwater harvesting,
underground water extraction, irrigation investment and public water and
soil conservation practices (FDRE, 2014). Although it is at its early stage, the
Ministry of Water, Irrigation and Energy (MoWIE) has developed water sector
strategies and programs to enhance the country’s water security, reduce
water related risks (droughts and floods) and climate change adaptation.
Alongside adaptation, the country has committed itself to work on mitigation
of climate change (reducing greenhouse gas emissions) as stated in its
Climate Resilient Green Economy (CRGE) strategy (FDRE, 2011). During
the last 10 years Ethiopia has constructed three big dams (Gilgel-Ghibe I,
Tekeze and Tana Beles) to produce hydroelectricity and other three dams
(The Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam, Gibe III and dams in Genale-Dawa
basin are under construction. The government has planned to increase the
hydroelectric power generating capacity from 2000 MW in 2009/10 to 8000
MW in 2014/15 (FDRE, 2011). The government of Ethiopia is also working on
soil and water conservations, afforestation, and rehabilitation of degraded
lands to reduce soil erosion and rate of sedimentation into water reservoirs
and lakes and increase groundwater levels.
However, all the water developments, water management and climate

change adaptation response efforts are challenged by many environmental
and socioeconomic factors. The first major challenge to water resources
development and management in Ethiopia is the extreme hydrological
variability and seasonality and the international nature of its most significant
surface water resources (World Bank, 2006). Ethiopia has very difficult
hydrology that varies over time and space with endemic drought and flood
events. These extreme hydrological events have induced economy-wide
impacts (FDRE, 2007) and they are the focal points for water resources
management and climate change adaptation response efforts. The low level
of institutional, economic and expertise capacities are also other important
challenges for water management and climate change adaptation works
(World Bank, 2006; Conway and Schipper, 2011).

4.2. Indigenous water management practices for adaptation to
climate variability
Over time, households and communities have developed a range of natural
resource and water management strategies in response to extreme climate
events in Ethiopia. The type of water management and coping strategies
are different from place to place based on the type of agro-ecology, type
of water problems (such as drought, floods, soil erosion, water logging,
etc.), resources available and other environmental and socio-cultural factors
(Holmann et al., 2005). Indigenous adaptation measures vary from collecting
wild fruits, switching to non-farming activities, migration and selling assets
to collection of fuel-wood and charcoal for sale to provide households with
basic needs during difficult times. The sale of household goods and animals
and land renting are also among the coping strategies. Most of these coping
strategies are used to overcome drought induced water and food shortages
in drought-prone areas of the country (FDRE, 2007) and do not provide long-
term solutions, rather they are short-term remedies to water and climate
related problems (Homann et al., 2005).
To mention examples of indigenous water management practices, in the

central highland areas farmers use various water management strategies
to mitigate soil erosion, drain waterlogged lands, protect farm lands and
settlements from flash floods, conserving soil moisture and cope with
drought events. Some of the known agronomic practices are: drainage
ditches, crop rotation, contour plowing, mulching, strip cropping, and agro-
forestry practices (Ali and Surur, 2012; Mekonnen and Gebremichael, 2014).
For example, farmers in Northern Shewa use stone terraces, soil bunds, water
ways, drainage ditches and contour plowing to protect against flash floods
and soil erosion (Amsalu, 2006; Adimassu et al., 2013). In southern Ethiopia,
agro-forestry system and Konso’s indigenous terrace building are the well-
known indigenous water and soil conservation practices. In some areas such
as Wolayta farmers use multiple or inter-cropping systems in croplands as a
coping mechanism against effects of crop diseases, insect pests or droughts
(Shiferaw et al., 2011).
In the lowland parts of Ethiopia seasonal mobility is a typical strategy of

pastoralists used to overcome shortages of water and pasture during the dry

season. Mobility enables them to use the spatially variable water resources
and rangelands. The time, direction, duration, and frequency of visit vary
from one pastoral territory to another but all have the essential feature that
they avoid heavy grazing pressure induced by repeated and longer period
of grazing and water shortage (Tesfay and Tafere, 2004). A major ecological
advantage of mobility is thus there is little chance for pastoral stock to inflict
long-term damage on the rangeland and enabled pastoralists to sustain their
rangelands for centuries (Tesfay and Tafere, 2004). Pastoralists also construct
ponds to collect rainwater and dig deeper holes to obtain groundwater. For
example, the Afar pastoralists harvest rainwater in shallow ponds (Horoyo)
and access is carefully regulated by user groups. Such regulation includes
time of accessing it, number and age of livestock species allowed to use it,
and means of improving the structure (Tesfay and Tafere, 2004). The Borana
pastoralists also use water from deep sources (Homann et al., 2005). These
kinds of water sources are constructed close to settlements and homesteads
and reserved for calves, milking cows and weak livestock (Amsalu and Adem,
2009).
Pastoralists also use indigenous early warning systems based on strong and
careful observation of the behavior of wild animals, stars and birds that helps
local people to predict the coming of rains and intensity. For example, the
Dasenech people in South Omo Valley make seasonal flood prediction by
observing stars, wind and cloud patterns and behavior of specific animals to
make some adjustments against floods (Gebresenbet and Kefale, 2012). There
are also traditional administration, negotiation and social institutions that
play important roles in the management of water and rangeland resources
(Tesfay and Tafere, 2004; Homann et al., 2005; Gebresenbet and Kefale,
2012). However, in the recent times the capacity of these social institutions
and indigenous adaptation strategies are challenged by increased intensity
and frequency of extreme climate events, rangeland degradation, bush
encroachment, population growth, private and public investments affecting
the rangelands (Tesfay and Tafere, 2004; Homann et al., 2005; Amsalu
and Adem, 2009; Gebresenbet and Kefale, 2012).Yet it is often noted that
integrating indigenous water management practices with modern methods
is useful to effectively tackle the challenge of hydrological variability in the
country, particularly in the drought-prone areas.

4.3. Institutional arrangements for water resource governance
and climate change adaptation in the water sector
Effective water management planning requires adequate institutional
structures and capacity to provide: 1) appropriate legislation and policy,
particularly at the national/sub-national levels, 2) sufficient infrastructure
for water storage, drought and flood reduction, 3) appropriate technical and
managerial capacity, and 4) to effectively respond to the impacts of climate
change on the water sector (ECE, 2009). Institutions play key roles to regulate
the development and management of water resources and provision of
adequate and safe water supply services to different use sectors.
The current institutional arrangement, proclamations, policies, strategies

and programs as well as the national institutional arrangement at the
national and regional level in Ethiopia are described in detail in part one.
Some studies like Conway and Schipper (2011) and Oates et al. (2011)
described that although not sufficient the existing institutional structures,
policies and strategies in Ethiopia are useful for water sector development,
water management and mainstreaming climate change adaptation in the
water sector. Currently, it is the Ministry of Water, Irrigation and Energy - is
responsible for water development, water management and water related
climate change adaptation planning and implementation. It has the mandate
of formulating national water policy, strategy, legal framework, plans, and
establishing national standards pertaining to water resources, establishing
relevant institutions, commission studies, plan and develop water supply
and sanitation schemes, irrigation, hydropower and other energy forms,
and water resources administration, protection, monitoring and allocation
(MoWIE, 2014).
4.3.1. Water resource considerations in the NAPA of Ethiopia
Ethiopia’s National Adaptation Program of Action (NAPA) developed in 2007

under the request of the United Nations Convention on Climate Change
(UNFCCC) had a significant coverage of water issues. Although not put
into implementation water and water related problems (drought, floods
and erosion) were well identified and given priorities for adaptation in the
NAPA document. Five out of 11 major strategic priorities for climate change

adaptation were related to water directly or indirectly (NMA, 2007). Summary
of NAPA’s water related adaptation strategies is presented in Table 9.
Table 9 Summary of water related adaptation strategies and measures identified in

the NAPA document
Priority Water related adaptation Adaptation options/mea- Required cost

rank strategy/program sures to be taken estimate (in $)
1 Strengthening/enhanc- Improvements of moni- Full project im-
ing drought and flood toring, prediction facilities plementation:
early warning systems in and information flows, 10 million
Ethiopia
development of skilled Project design:
human resource Improve- 100,000
ment of observational
network
2 Development of small Study design and imple- Full project im-

scale irrigation and wa- mentation, identification plementation:
ter harvesting schemes of suitable sites for water 30 million
in arid, semi-arid, and harvesting, small scale
dry sub-humid areas of irrigation dams and bore- Project design:
Ethiopia holes and prepare land for 500,000
irrigation, construction/
development of dams,
boreholes and ponds and
provide
training for the commu-

nities and professionals in
water management
3 Community based Undertake assessment and Full project im-
sustainable utilization plementation:
and management of wet consultation with stake- 2 million
lands in selected parts of holders, create awareness
Ethiopia and training of personnel Project design:
50,000

4 Realizing food security Assessment and review of Full project im-
through multi-pur- existing master plans plementation:
pose large scale water 700 million
and works on Ge-
development project in
Genale–Dawa Basin nale–Dawa river basin Project design:
then make feasibility 2 million
studies, construction
of dams and capacity
building
5 Promotion of on farm Identification of potential Full project im-
and homestead forestry and target areas, estab- plementation:
and agro-forestry prac- lishment of tree nurseries, 5 million
tices in arid, semi-arid training of farmers and
and dry-sub humid parts agricultural extension Project design:
of Ethiopia workers 100,000
Source: NMA (2007)
4.3. Key policy and strategic issues for water resource develop-
ment and climate change adaptation
This section presents a review of water management and climate change

adaptation strategies identified and suggested for the Ethiopia’s water sector.
There are many research outputs and policy documents that have presented
different water management and climate change adaptation strategies for the
water sector (MoWR, 2001a; World Bank, 2006; FDRE, 2007; Ndaruzaniye,
2011; Oates et al., 2011; MoWIE, 2014). These studies presented different
short-term and long-term options. The following sections provide detail
descriptions on the existing and planned water management and climate
change adaptation programs for the sector.
Ethiopia has a Water Sector Policy issued in 2001, which has the following
strategic objectives:
1. Development of the water resources of the country for economic
and social benefits of the people, on equitable and sustainable ba-
sis.
2. Allocation and apportionment of water based on comprehensive
and integrated plans and optimum allocation principles that incor-

porate efficiency of use, equity of access, and sustainability of the
resource.
3. Managing and combating drought as well as other associated slow
on-set disasters through, inter-alia, efficient allocation, redistribu-
tion, transfer, storage and efficient use of water resources.
4. Combating and regulating floods through sustainable mitigation,
prevention, rehabilitation and other practical measures.
5. Conserving, protecting and enhancing water resources and the
overall aquatic environment on sustainable basis.
The national water sector strategy was subsequently issued, also in
2001, to translate the national water management policy into action. The
sector strategy document covers areas of improving water security, water
management, hydro power and irrigation development, institution and
capacity building aspects, water related risk (drought and flood) management,
on the development and management of trans-boundary water issues,
research, and health issues. The details of the strategy in each category are
presented in Table 10.
Table 10 Summary of water development and management strategies
Sub-sector Strategy
Undertake assessment and development of the country’s surface
water resources
Develop ground water resources and ensure its optimal utilisa-
tion
Make effective and optimum use of available water resources by
Water giving priority to multipurpose water resources development proj-
resource de- ects
velopment
Strengthen and expand hydrological and hydro-meteorological
data records
Strengthen rainwater harvesting through the construction of small
check dams
Undertake proper assessment, preservation and enrichment of
aquatic resources

Water Ensure that water allocation is based on efficient use of water re-
Resources sources
Management Promote appropriate watershed management practices
Protect the national water resources from pollution
Establish effective institutional basis for sustainable development
and management of water resources
Institution
Develop and implement capacity building programs at all levels
and capacity
(Federal, Regional, Zonal, Woreda and grassroot level) on water
building
resources management
Formulate appropriate water legislation for effective water man-
agement
Develop projects on trans-boundary waters that are in the best
national interest of Ethiopia, and are consistent with the interna-
tional covenant adapted by the Nile Basin member states
Assess and update every 3 years the state of water affairs of
trans-boundary rivers
Trans-bound- Assess and update every 5 years the demand for water of
ary waters development projects in each of the trans-boundary rivers with
issues particular emphasis on high priority projects
Develop and enhance capacity in trans-boundary negotiations
and conflict resolution
Evaluate the existing state of research and development activities
in the water sector to identify pressing and critical problems in
Research and water resources
Development
Develop institutional framework and conducive environment to
promote and carrying out research and development activities
Disasters and Develop and implement comprehensive plan of action to address
Public Safety flood disasters
Combat the droughts that claim the appalling loss of human life
and livestock
Environment Incorporate environmental studies as a component of the studies
and Health to be carried out for water resources development projects
Standards

Prepare inventories of the complete hydropower potential of the
country, and identify site specific conditions to put into place to
exploit this potential
Improve electricity use efficiency
Carry out one feasibility study per year for medium scale hy-
dropower plants to ensure that an adequate number of HPD
candidate sites
Hydropower
Streamline co-operation among the institutional stakeholders and
development
redistributing the institutional responsibilities
Strengthen technical capacities of the national staff in the study,
design, construction, and operation and management of hydro-
power schemes
Rehabilitate the existing schemes suffering from deferred opera-
tion and maintenance, and complete those schemes which were
started
Adopt improved and affordable systems and tools for water
irrigation
Develop standards, guidelines, manuals and procedures for the
sustainable operation and maintenance of irrigated schemes
Prioritize the implementation of various types of irrigation
schemes based on a well articulated evaluation based on physical
resources and socioeconomic parameters
Give emphasis to water harvesting methods for small scale irriga-
tion development
Extend credit facilities and bank loans for the implementation of
small scale irrigation schemes to be executed by local community
groups
Irrigation De- Reinforce the role of the federal government and regional states
velopment in the development of small, medium and large scale irrigation
schemes
Develop a program to strengthen the technical capacities of Na-
tional/Regional/ Zonal/ Woreda level offices
Assign priority to those irrigation projects which are of multi-pur-
pose in nature and would contribute towards ensuring food
security and risk reduction

Identify the most appropriate, efficient, effective, reliable and
affordable water supply and sanitation technologies
Develop national standards for the design, installation, implemen-
tation, operation, maintenance and inspection of the water supply
and sanitation systems
Conduct studies and research on traditional water supply and san-
itation technologies
Water Supply
Develop and enforce standards and guidelines for maintaining wa-
and Sanita-
ter quality
tion
Promote and encourage water conservation through regulatory
and demand management measures
Source: MoWR (2001b)

The World Bank conducted a detailed and comprehensive assessment on
Ethiopia’s current water problems and the associated impacts on agriculture
and hydropower production and socio-economic development (World Bank,
2006). This study has identified extreme hydrological variability and seasonality
as the primary water resource management challenges for Ethiopia. The poor
water infrastructure, inadequate research, information flow and institutional
capacities are also considered as water related problems and central points
for the development of water management strategies. By understanding
these problems, the World Bank suggested short-term and long-term water
management strategies to enhance the level of the country’s water security
and combat the negative impacts induced by hydrological variability. Some of
the priority responses identified by the World Bank to address the challenges
in Ethiopia’s water sector, which have implications for adaptation to climate
change, are presented as follows.
Short-term water management strategic priorities for Ethiopia (World

Bank, 2006):
1. Strengthening institutions and capacity
Investment in research and education in particular will be crucial to
develop the capacity needed to design effective and appropriate water
resource management interventions, watershed management, irrigation
development, and water and sanitation services.
2. Increased water storage

To mitigate the economic impacts of water related shocks in Ethiopia,

increasing water storage capacity, both natural and manmade, large
scale and small scale is be needed. Given both seasonal and inter-annual
variability, significant over-year storage will be particularly important.
Thus World Bank recommended development of multi-purposes large
scale and small scale water storage facilities to control flooding and
drought problems, slow sedimentation rates and provide water for
irrigation, domestic consumption and hydropower generation and to
create opportunity for fisheries and tourism. Storage design must also
take explicit account of the country’s extreme hydrologic variability and
high sedimentation rates. Empirical studies such as Awulachew et al.
(2007) reported that the adoption of small scale water storage has created
better opportunity for production, better income, reduction of risks and
hence generated benefits for poor rural communities. This study has also
identified some failures that need attention that includes: limited capacity,
institutional instability, flawed project design and lack of adequate
community consultation during project planning.
3. Watershed management
Improvements in watershed management will be a crucial element in
managing water resources. , and restoration of degraded watersheds. The
adoption of community based watershed management will have multiple
benefits: it can slow down soil erosion, moderate hydrological variability,
regulate runoff and groundwater flow, improve infiltration capacity (hence
water retention and base flows), and reduce potential flood damage.
4. Irrigation development
Ethiopia’s agricultural system does not yet fully benefit from the
technologies of irrigation. Therefore, properly designed irrigation
investments can provide a secure supply of agricultural water to protect the
subsector from the greater part of hydrological variability. It can enhance
food security and the reliable delivery of marketable and exportable
agricultural products.
5. Develop/enhance the use of groundwater potential for irrigation

Ethiopia’s groundwater resource potential is not well known. One distinct
advantage of groundwater is its relative reliability because groundwater
availability estimations indicate that a significant proportion of this
resource could be economically used for irrigation and that ground water
based irrigation is likely to be a cost-effective option. Groundwater pumped
wells for irrigation can supplement surface water canal irrigation as well as
irrigate areas that do not have canal irrigation facilities. For smallholders,
the capital requirements to develop shallow groundwater irrigation are

generally low and its productivity is higher compared to surface irrigation.
6. Drainage improvement to protect soil productivity

Rain or irrigation water may accumulate in agricultural fields and cause
water logging, which can lead to soil degradation. Management practices
should be developed to minimize water accumulation on the soil surface,
particularly in vertisol areas to minimize salinization and sodium hazards.
7. Early warning and preparedness systems

Effective early warning systems are a critical component of drought and
flood preparedness program, with major benefits for agricultural and
hydropower production. However, there is currently a deficiency of reliable
meteorological data and observation networks, as well as an inadequate
information dissemination system. The country must further develop
data collection, early warning systems, market information systems, and
permanent diagnosis and research centers (agriculture, hydrogeology,
hydrology, meteorology).
8. Responses for livestock survival

To improve drought preparedness in the livestock sector, investments
are needed in small feeder roads, improved water management, fodder
banks, and range improvement. Funds should also be set aside to provide
rapid responses such as destocking, water tankering, and the control of
human and animal disease outbreaks.
Long-term water management strategic priorities for Ethiopia (World

Bank, 2006):
1. Encourage alternative livelihoods
Most Ethiopians depend directly on rainfall for subsistence agriculture,
hence vulnerable to rainfall variability and change. Thus, investments
and policies must be considered to create opportunities for less
water-dependent, more resilient livelihoods that have less impact on
environmental resources. .
2. Seek price and income stabilization

Better road and market infrastructure for agricultural production could
enhance domestic market and help to smooth food supplies and prices.
Expanded opportunities for off-farm employment would also help
lessen the economic shocks arising from hydrological variability driven
fluctuations in the agriculture sector by providing supplemental income to
the greater majority of the population.

3. Enable private investment in irrigation and non-agricultural activities
Investment policy in irrigated agriculture and energy sectors need to be
further liberalized to attract both domestic and foreign private investors.
The investment climate and property rights regimes should ensure long-
term security and adequate return on investments.
4. Invest in all-weather roads and market infrastructure to shift

expectations and incentives
Improving the coverage and quality of Ethiopia’s road network will ensure
that producers can move their product to markets easily, and would
diminish current disincentives to investment in all sectors that arise from
the high costs and uncertainty of transport services.
5. Ensure that other infrastructure investments are designed to withstand

erosion and flooding
Where high rates of sedimentation are seen or predicted, hydraulic
infrastructure such as reservoirs and canal systems should be designed
properly to overcome impacts induced by flood and erosion risks.
6. Expand hydropower generation capacity and promote regional power

trade
Ethiopia’s vast hydropower potential offers opportunities for mutually
beneficial power trade in the region. By developing a network of linked
energy producing facilities, Ethiopia can increase economic resilience to
water shocks. For example, two or more interconnected hydropower-
based systems may prove complementary in reducing the effects of
variability in seasonal river flows, including droughts and floods. Ethiopia
could potentially transmit power through Egypt’s grid to the Middle East
and even to Europe.
7. Promote financial risk mitigation and credit

Current credit and banking systems do not provide robust risk mitigation
products. By considering the high level of Ethiopia’s hydrologic variability
that it will likely always pose significant risks for agricultural and non-
agricultural investors, it is important to explore opportunities to provide
insurance, credit, or banking vehicles to help producers manage this risk.
4.4.1. Water in the CRGE vision of Ethiopia
Ethiopia is currently implementing the Climate Resilient Green Economy

(CRGE) initiative with the objective to protect the country from the adverse
effects of climate change and to build a green economy (FDRE, 2011). CRGE

has three objectives: fostering economic development and growth, ensuring
abatement and avoidance of future greenhouse gas emissions, i.e., transition
to a green economy, and improving resilience to climate change.
Although most of the identified CRGE strategies (such as hydropower

generation, irrigation and improving the rain-fed agriculture) to achieve
these objectives are water related and are highly sensitive to water variability
and change, the water sector has given very little emphasis and is not a focal
point in the CRGE document (FDRE, 2011). However, there are empirical
evidences that the current rainfall variability is challenging the Ethiopia’s
water security, water management and other water related developments
by affecting sectors such as energy and health (World Bank, 2006; Conway
and Schipper, 2011; Oates et al., 2011). Climate change is also likely to
exacerbate the existing water related problems (drought, flood, erosion and
water quality, which have strong implications that development projects and
other green growth strategies need to consider water related climate risks in
their planning. It is because effective water management has been argued
that is fundamental to mitigate the impacts of climate change, as water is the
primary medium through which these changes will be experienced (Oates et
al., 2011).
4.4.2. The climate resilience strategy for the water sector
Since the climate resilience strategies should be developed at sectoral level

by concerned federal ministries, the Ministry of Water, Irrigation and Energy
(MoWIE) was responsible to develop Climate Resilience Strategies for the
water and energy sectors. Thus, MoWIE has identified ten climate resilient
strategic priorities in four priority sub-sectors (power generation, energy
access, irrigation and access to water, sanitation and hygiene). The details of
these strategies, rationales and the required cost estimate are presented in
Table 11.

Table 11 Climate resilient strategic priorities in the water and energy sector
Sub-sector Climate Rational/measures to be taken Required

priority resilient cost
strategy
Diverse The rational is to obtain energy
energy mix from different sources (20% wind
and solar, 10% geothermal and 70%
hydropower) to reduce the impact
from extreme rainfall
Power gen-
eration Improve Increasing energy efficiency to re- $304 million
energy duce the demand for electricity.
efficiency
Improve Reducing the demand for biomass

efficiency by increasing fuel efficiency.
of biomass
use
Accelerate Pilot micro-generation projects need
Energy non-grid to be funded to develop non-grid en- $246 million
access energy ergy access for rural electrification
access
Accelerate Feasibility and design work needs

irrigation to be completed to fully understand
plans the irrigation potential and to de-
velop a long-term action plan
Support Provide support to the Ministry of
the resil- Agriculture by improving data pro-
ience of vided by the National Meteorolog-
Irrigation rain-fed $71 million
agriculture ical Agency
Balance Growing water demands need to be
water managed and allocated according
demands to the water that is available

Accelerate Prioritize meeting the funding gap
universal in the One WASH National Program
access to
Access by focusing on the most vulnerable
Water San-
to Water, itation and area and communities
Sanitary Hygiene
and Hygiene (WASH)
$220 million
(WASH)
Enhance Additional approaches such as im-
the climate proving local water storage facilities
resilience or participatory water resource man-
of self-sup- agement should be implemented
ply
Data sys- Strengthening data systems so that

tems for they provide timely, reliable and
decision usable data
support
Accelerate A common theme across the CR
Cross-cut- delivery Strategy is that most of our existing $54 million
ting issues of existing plans already support CRGE, but
plans need to accelerate delivery and
implementation
Source: MoWIE (2014)
4.5. Limits, barriers and costs of adaptation and risk manage-

ment
4.5.1. Limits and barriers
There are many physical and socio-economic factors that could limit or
complicate adaptation response as well as climate risk management activities
in the water sector (Kundzewicz et al., 2007; ECE, 2009). Kundzewicz et al.
(2007) identified four different types of limits on adaptation to changes in
fresh water resources, these are: physical factors, economic or financial
factors, political or social factors and institutional factors.
There are many physical and ecological factors that could limit and affect water
management and adaptation in the water sector. The first major challenge for
water management and climate change adaptation in Ethiopia is the extreme

hydrological variability and seasonality and the international nature of its
most significant surface water resources (World Bank, 2006). Ethiopia has
very difficult hydrology that varies over time and space with endemic drought
and flood events. Drought would be a limiting factor to implement some of
the proposed water management and adaptation strategies in the country,
particularly in the arid and semi-arid regions, where there is chronic water
shortage. Irrigation, water security and hydropower production would be
limited due to water shortage during drought times (Conway and Schipper,
2011; Oates et al., 2011).
Flooding is also another growing problem that results from increasing rainfall
variability in Ethiopia (World Bank, 2006). Ethiopia experiences both flash and
riverine floods that have significant impacts on farmlands, water reservoirs
and other socioeconomic infrastructure. Riverine flood is a problem mainly
along the lower parts of major river basins and flood plains along some river
basins such as, the Awash, Abbay, Baro-Akobo and Wabe-Shebele basins.
Although there is no clear evidence about future flood conditions in the
country, the tendency is towards increasing changes that could result from
increasing rainfall variability (Conway et al., 2007; FDRE, 2007); thus flooding
is one of the extreme hydrological events that could largely complicate and
or sometimes limit the development of water infrastructures and water
management activities in the country.
Flood in Ethiopia carries a lot of sediment load and causes damage on water
infrastructures by inundating and water-logging productive lands. High
sediment loads due to flooding into rivers and water reservoirs reduces the
potential of water reservoirs to hold water. When sediments settle into water
reservoirs, the capacity for power generation is reduced in proportion to the
sediment entrance into the reservoir. In addition, concentration of sediment
at the power inlets hampers operation of dam bottom outlets as well as
power intakes. During the last few decades, flooding has caused damage
to hydropower generation equipment at the Melka Wakana and Tis-Abbay
power plants (World Bank, 2006). This problem is expected to continue due
to the increasing inter-annual rainfall variability, high rate of deforestation
and agricultural expansion over the highland areas (FDRE, 2007). Thus,
sedimentation is one of the growing problems that is now challenging and
will continue to challenge the existing and planned water infrastructures

mainly of water reservoirs and the management of drought and flood risks
through water regulation.
The complex mountainous and rugged topography of the country is also a

major source of limit and barrier for the development and management of
Ethiopia’s water resources. The central part of Ethiopia that covers almost half
of the country is the source for most of the rivers in the country. This part of
the country is covered by high mountains, rugged plateaus cut by deep gorges
and wide valleys in the highland and plains in the lowlands. The transition
from highland to lowlands is very abrupt with sharp falls and cataracts. The
steep-slope highlands over the central parts of Ethiopia are experiencing
rapid deforestation and expansion for agricultural land and could generate
and aggravate flood hazards, soil erosion and sedimentation into water
reservoirs, lowland settlements and irrigated farmlands. The lowlands are flat
and largely affected by frequent flooding and sediment deposition by ravines,
gullies and rivers. These complex and difficult topography are the major
limiting factors to access water from deep river valleys and development of
water infrastructures (MoWR, 2001a).
Although adaptation need not be limited by uncertain knowledge (Adger et

al., 2009) there is high level of uncertainty in the future behavior of rainfall
that could cause a significant challenge to understand and acting upon the
risks posed by climate change. However, Adger et al. (2009) noted that ‘…
adaptation need not be limited by uncertain knowledge on future climate
change’. Instead of viewing this uncertainty as a limit to adaptation, Adger
et al. (2007) suggest developing robust and flexible adaptation strategies
based on existing information as a direction by which maladaptation can be
avoided, and as time progresses and the understanding of climate change
increases, adaptation strategies will be adaptable to different decision paths
that suit socio-political developments.
Most of the limit and barriers for climate change adaptation in the third world
countries would arise from the economic or financial limits (Oates et al.,
2011). Every form of adaptation that could be implemented by individuals,
communities or government entails some direct or indirect financial costs.
Ethiopia is one of the least developed countries in the world which has very
difficult hydrology and rapidly growing population (hence increasing the

demand for water) and with very poor water infrastructure development.
According to World Bank (2006), Ethiopia would need to invest five times its
annual GDP (US$35 billion according to 2006 estimation) just to achieve a
similar water infrastructure by taking the storage in South Africa as a crude
benchmark of water security. This amount will be very huge for Ethiopia to
use for water development and water management activities. In addition to
this, technological limitations in the water sector commonly tie closely with
economic limitations, if the technology required for a specific approach is not
available or too expensive. The efficiency of implementing institutions and
capacity building programs are also significantly influenced by availability of
finance (MoWIE, 2014).
Strengthening the country’s early warning system is one of the important

water management and climate change adaptation strategies that is strongly
recommended for Ethiopia (World Bank, 2006; NMA, 2007; Oates et al.,
2011). NMA and MoWIE are responsible to collect and disseminate climate
and water related early warning information. Currently these institutions have
low capacity to generate reliable hydro-meteorological data, observation
networks and inadequate information delivery system (Conway and Schipper,
2011). There are many factors that affect the performance of these institutions
to produce and disseminate early warning information to the users, which
include poor infrastructure, technology, inadequate climate and hydrology
monitoring network densities, shortage of trained professionals and so on
(World Bank, 2006).
There is also very little knowledge about the nature of current hydroclimate
variability and trends for the country (Conway et al., 2007). This would
create information gaps to develop spatially relevant water management and
adaptation strategies at watershed and smaller scales across the country. It
is well known that rainfall and stream flow as well as other climatic elements
that affect the water resources base of the country vary from watershed to
watershed and even within a given watershed (Gebrehiwot, 2012).
Although there are initial signs of progress in addressing climate risks and
adapting to climate change in the water sector in Ethiopia, the historic
climatic trends inform Ethiopia’s water sector strategies and programs to
some extent, future climate projections and socio-economic scenarios are

rarely incorporated into these designs. Climate risk considerations are not
being factored into water sector planning and implementation in a systematic
way and that institutional structures are currently inadequate (Conway and
Schipper, 2011; Oates, 2011).
Although the traditional methods of resource allocation and water

management strategies are appreciated for their advantages to tackle some
important water related risks, these strategies are currently challenged by
many factors. Some of the major constraints are rapid population growth,
recurrent drought that overweight the traditional coping strategies,
greater socio-economic inequality between households and divergent
trends between communities that hinder cooperation in natural resource
management (Tesfay and Tafere, 2004; Homann et al., 2005). Consideration
of heterogeneous household characteristics, asset ownership, technology
specific traits vis a vis farming systems, culture of people, local ecology and
institutional arrangements are some of the observed barriers for adopting
and applying some soil and water conservation techniques during the past
efforts (Tesfay and Tafere, 2004; Homann et al., 2005; Mekonnen and Gebre
Michael, 2014).
Although adaptation strategies in the water sector at the country level

should also include measures covering all the steps of the adaptation
chain: prevention, improving resilience, preparation, reaction/response,
and recovery (ECE, 2009), these are not well articulated both in the NAPA
document and CRGE development programs (FDRE, 2007, 2011; MoWIE,
2014). Only few adaptation measures such as increase the level of water
security both in the rural and urban areas, increase the application of
irrigation, increase water storage and watershed management strategies are
identified as a preventive or climate resilient strategies by MoWIE for the
water sector (MoWIE, 2014). No strategy was set for preparation, reaction/
response, and recovery for drought and flood hazards in the CREG document
prepared for the water sector.
A serious challenge for Ethiopia is the fact that it shares so many international
rivers. Many of the country’s river water resources are shared with numerous
riparian states: Egypt, Eritrea, Somalia, Kenya and Sudan. Obviously, there
are tensions, to a greater or lesser extent, between riparian nations on all

international rivers (ACPC, 2011). The complexity of riparian relations is an
obstacle to the development of the full potential that international rivers
embody for growth and poverty alleviation. In extreme cases, tensions over
international rivers can effectively halt their effective management and
development. Tensions over shared rivers encourage the adoption of less
economically efficient polices that focus on self-sufficiency (for example, in
agriculture and power) rather than on integration. There is a real risk that
these tensions could result in the diversion of strategic human resources
and policy focus from economic development to security concerns related
to water and even a diversion of financial resources to military preparedness
(World Bank, 2006). Although some attempt has been made through the
development of trans-national initiatives for transboundary rivers such as the
Nile Basin Initiative (NBI), in many ways it is inadequate to provide full fledged
water related policies and strategies. In particular, the initiative has little or
no practical link with local governments and communities and is unable to
cause sufficient influence on transboundary water governors (ACPC, 2011).
4.4.2. Costs of adaptation
The costs of climate change adaptation in the Ethiopian water sector depends
on the type and magnitude of future climate changes, drought and flood risk
occurrences, the level of initial water infrastructure in the country, economic
growth and the government’s development plans and priorities. So far, very
few of these costs have been estimated in monetary terms across the world
(Kundzewicz et al., 2007). Efforts to quantify economic impacts of climate-
related changes in water resources are hampered by a lack of data particularly
in underdeveloped regions like Ethiopia and by the fact that the estimates are
highly sensitive to different estimation methods and to different assumptions
regarding how changes in water availability will be allocated across various
types of water uses, e.g., between agricultural, urban, or in-stream uses. In
addition to these, the cost estimate for adaptation also varies with different
scenarios. According to Robinson et al. (2013), adaptation in the dry scenarios
involves expensive increased investment in dams, irrigation, and hydropower,
while adaptation in the wet scenarios involves relatively major investments
in improved floodwater management. According to this study adaptation

costs in Ethiopia may range between USD 158 million to over USD 258 million
per year.
On the other hand, hydrological changes may have impacts that are positive
in some aspects and negative in others. For example, increased annual runoff
may produce benefits for a variety of in-stream and out-of-stream water users
by increasing renewable water resources, but may simultaneously generate
harm by increasing flood risks and groundwater recharge that can be used
during the dry season. Increased runoff could also damage areas with shallow
water table. In such areas, a water table rise will disturb agricultural use and
damage buildings in urban areas. In addition, an increase in annual runoff
may not lead to a beneficial increase in readily available water resources if the
additional runoff is concentrated during the high-flow season (Kundzewicz et
al., 2007).
The social costs or benefits of any change in water availability would depend
on how the change affects each of these potentially competing human
water demands. Changes in water availability will depend on changes in the
volume, variability, and seasonality of runoff, as modified by the operation of
existing water control infrastructure and investments in new infrastructure.
In addition, quantity of water is not the only important variable. Changes in
water quality and temperature can also have substantial impacts on urban,
industrial, and agricultural use values, as well as on aquatic ecosystems. For
urban water uses, degraded water quality can add substantially to water
treatment costs. Increased precipitation intensity may periodically result in
increased turbidity and increased nutrient and pathogen content of surface
water sources (Kundzewicz et al., 2007).
The cost estimate of adaptation in the water sector can be also affected by
and should consider the expected change in sectoral water demands over
time in response to changes in population, settlement patterns, wealth,
industrial activity, and technology. For example, in Ethiopia the rapid
urbanization created substantial growth in localized water demand (FDRE,
2011, 2014), often making it difficult to meet goals for the provision of a
safe and affordable, domestic water supply. In addition, climate change will
probably alter the desired uses of water (demands) as well as actual uses
(demands in each sector that are actually met).

In Ethiopia, the cost required for water management and water sector
adaptation to climate change is very high due to the very difficult hydrology of
the country that is characterized by extreme events and high inter-annual and
seasonal variability (World Bank, 2006) and very poor water infrastructural
development (MoWR, 2002a; Oates et al., 2011). The Ministry of Water
Resources (MoWR, 2002a) has set out the cost estimate required for the
implementation of different development programs in the water sector for
short-term, medium-term and long-term time scales (Table 12).
Table 12 Summary of cost estimate required for overall water sector development
program (US$ million)
Sub-sector Short- Medi- long- Total

term um-term term
Water Supply & Sewerage 876.2 1,057.9 1,001.7 2,935.8
Program
Federal
Regional 876.2 1,057.9 1,001.7 2,935.8
Irrigation Program 307.9 456.9 918.3 1,683.1
Federal 114.7 268.1 700.9 1,083.7
Regional 193.2 188.8 217.4 599.4
Hydropower Program 649.1 525.9 776.7 1,951.7
Federal 647.4 516.2 764.5 1,928.1
Regional 1.7 9.7 12.2 23.6
General Water Resources 183.9 231.9 240.5 656.3
Program
Federal 133.7 160.1 153.7 447.5
Regional 50.2 71.8 86.8 208.8
Institution/Capacity Building 92.9 63.3 61.7 217.9
Program
Federal 13.2 5.3 5.0 23.5
Regional 79.7 58.0 56.7 194.4
Total 2,110.0 2,335.9 2,998.9 7,444.8
Federal 909.0 949.7 1,624.1 3,482.8
Regional 1,201.0 1,386.2 1,374.8 3,962.0
Source: MoWR (2002a)

The adaptation cost estimated for the Ethiopian water sector in the NAPA
document (NMA, 2007) and in the CRGE program (MoWIE, 2014) are
indicated in the Tables 9 and Tables 11 above, respectively.
4.6. Opportunities for adaptation and risk management

Ethiopia is endowed with rich water resources; the country has adequate
annual rainfall, several major rivers and lakes, and a significant groundwater
resource. This resource base is underutilized for socioeconomic development
and the country has not yet attained the minimum level of water security
and only less than 2% of the resource is diverted for use. Thus, this water
resource availability is an important opportunity for the country to provide
adequate water service and to adapt to climate change.
The underdeveloped water infrastructure in Ethiopia is one of the

opportunities that could be used to reduce vulnerability simply by investing
in the development of infrastructure and institutions for water management
and climate change adaptation (World Bank, 2006; Oates et al., 2011).
Investments in water for food, energy, industry, and navigation, and in
associated institutions will create opportunity for the country to achieve
resilient economic growth in the face of climate change and could enhance
the country’s climate change adaptive capacities (Ndaruzaniye, 2011).
In Ethiopia there are initial signs of progress to enhance the level of water
security, water management and to address the impacts of climate change
on the water sector. There are now many water related proclamations,
regulations, strategies, programs and River Basin Master Plan studies that
could be very useful to achieve water security, implement climate-smart
water management practices, reduce water related risks and climate change
adaptation works (Oates et al., 2011).
Moreover, the presence of agricultural and health extension service systems

and programs are very important to facilitate water and soil management
works and the implementation of water supply, sanitation and health
programs in rural areas of the country (FDRE, 2011). If the capacity of natural
resource management experts at the grassroots level could be enhanced
through appropriate off- and in-service training, they could play important
roles to increase the capacity and awareness of the rural communities about

the impacts of climate change and adaptation options, technology transfer
and effective watershed management practices (Desta, 2011).
On the other hand, if properly managed, assisted and integrated with

modern methods, there are many indigenous water related risk management
strategies, soil and water conservation methods and even institutions that
are used by the local people over centuries (Tesfay and Tafere, 2004; Homann
et al., 2005; Edossa et al., 2007; Gebresenbet and Kefale, 2012).
The Nile Basin Initiative (NBI) offers considerable potential for major
cooperative development of the Nile River, including large-scale hydropower
in Ethiopia. In addition, opportunities for regional cooperation and integration
in a range of activities beyond the river have arisen as a consequence of
strengthened relations built on the NBI. Recognizing this, the government of
Ethiopia is engaged in a serious effort to promote cooperative development
and management of the largest of its shared rivers, the Nile, through the Nile
Basin Initiative (NBI). This riparian cooperation could bring huge opportunities
and even the potential for transformational change in Ethiopia (FDRE, 2014).

5. Climate change mitigation opportunities in the water
sector
In many developing countries the issue of climate change is overshadowed by
a number of immediate development priorities such as poverty eradication,
food security, health, natural resources management, energy access, transport
needs and others (Kalsnaes and Verhage, 2007). However, the effectiveness of
development plans and strategies may be reduced and sectoral vulnerability
enhanced if climate change adaptation and mitigation are not considered.
Natural resources that have been supporting the livelihoods of the majority
of the Ethiopia population over centuries are now increasingly degraded.
Expansion of cultivation to marginal areas, overgrazing pressure, increasing
deforestation, mismanagement of land and water in commercial farm areas,
drainage and cultivation of wetlands and climate variability, are altogether
contributing to degradation of land and water. These represent areas of
concern that are exerting challenges on the development needs and efforts
of Ethiopia.
Responses to climate change take two linked tracks - mitigation and

adaptation. Mitigation seeks to minimize the human footprint through efforts
to control, reduce or even eliminate greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. This is
generally referred to as a transition to low or constrained carbon growth.
Examples include the introduction of low-carbon technologies for electricity
generation and transport, reforestation, and capturing and sequestering
emissions (World Bank, 2009).
Greenhouse gases that are responsible for global temperature rise include
carbondioxide (CO2), methane (CH4), nitrous oxide (N2O), carbonmonoxide
(CO), nitrogen oxides (NOx), and chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs). Of these,
carbon dioxide and methane contribute the most to global warming (Sathaye
and Ravindranath, 1998; Wreford et al., 2010). The primary sources of
CO2are burning of fossil fuels and biomass. Additional CO2 is released through
industrial processes, such as the production of cement. The primary sources
of methane are paddy fields, excreta of cattle and other animals, landfills, and
waste streams. A major source of N2O is from the use of fertilizers for crop
production. CFCs are released during the manufacturing of Freon substitutes
and insulation. NOx comes primarily from fuel combustion, during which
nitrogen and oxygen combine at high temperatures.
The sources of GHG emissions may be categorized broadly into energy
and non-energy sectors. The energy sector comprises the energy end
uses in industry, transportation, households, commercial establishments,
agriculture, and the supply and transformation of energy. The non-energy
sector includes forestry, agriculture, and waste management (Sathaye and
Ravindranath, 1998). Globally, agriculture accounts for about one-fifth of the
projected anthropogenic greenhouse effect. It produces about 50 and 70%
respectively of the overall anthropogenic CH4 and N2O emissions (IPCC, 1996).
In this section of the report, reduction options of GHG emission through

water management practices are dealt with. Among the different water use
sectors, agriculture is the dominant sector where wider options for climate
change mitigation could be found. There are lists of several technical options
proposed for mitigation of emissions from agriculture (IPCC, 1996; Sathaye
and Ravindranath, 1998; Smith et al., 2008; Wreford et al., 2010; Delgado et
al., 201). These measures may be categorized as: reducing emissions through
improved farming efficiency, including genetic improvement; displacing fossil
fuel emissions by alternative energy sources; and enhancing the removal of
atmospheric CO2 throughsequestration into soil and vegetation sinks. Many
agricultural practices can potentially mitigate greenhouse gas emissions,
the most prominent of which are improved cropland and grazing land
management and restoration of degraded lands and cultivated organic soils
(Smith et al., 2008).
It is estimated that about 18% of the world’s croplands receive supplementary

irrigation (Fischer et al., 2007). Expanding this area or using more irrigation
technologies can enhance carbon storage in soils through enhanced yields
and residue returns. However, these gains may be offset by CO2 from energy
used to deliver and distribute water to irrigate the fields or from N2O emissions
from higher moisture and nitrogen fertilizer inputs (cf. Smith et al., 2008).
Improvement of irrigation management is vital to reduce GHG emissions
from agriculture. Efficient use of irrigation water will reduce nitrogen losses,
including nitrous oxide emissions, and minimize CO2 emissions from energy
used for pumping while maintaining high yields and crop-residue production
(Pasustian et al., 2006).
Ethiopia is taking significant measures to contribute to climate change

mitigation. The government commitment to consider climate change
adaptation and mitigation in its development plans and strategies is clearly
stipulated in climate resilient green economy strategy and growth and
transformation plans. As part of the implementation of these plans and
strategies, widespread efforts are underway that include: reforestation
of deforested areas, integrated watershed management, development of
renewable energy potentials like hydropower, wind, and geo-thermal.
Measures of climate change mitigation through agricultural water

management are mainly focusing on improving productivity to enhance
more efficient use of resources and hence reduce losses (nutrient, water,
energy, etc) as well as increase biomass to enhance carbon sinks. Some of
these measures include:
• Improving agricultural water management both in irrigated and rain-

fed agriculture
• Proper planning of timing and amount of fertilizer and water application
• Minimizing unproductive water use in agriculture
• Use of more efficient and renewable energy sources in water
management
• Drainage and rehabilitation of waterlogged and saline irrigated areas
to enhance productivity
• Adapt where possible energy and water efficient irrigation methods
• Use of renewable energy for water lifting and distribution
• Rehabilitation of existing irrigation infrastructure and improved
management practices to enhance efficiency so as to conserve water
and water quality
• Integrated soil fertility and crops management to enhance yield and
water use efficiency
• Enhancing the capacities of irrigators through provision of services like:
extension, research, credit, market information and the like.
In conclusion, Ethiopia as a least developed country has insignificant
contribution to global climate change (greenhouse gas emission).
Nevertheless, it remains one of the highly vulnerable regions to the effects of

climate change. The country has been taking significant steps to contribute
to climate change mitigation. Carbon sequestration through watershed
reforestation and conservation are widely promoted and implemented.
Climate resilient green economy (CRGE) policy of the country signifies the
country’s commitment to climate change mitigation. Development of emission
free alternative energy sources are given due emphasis in the energy sector.
Strengthening of research is vital to understand the contribution of solid and
liquid wastes from growing urbanization, agricultural inputs like fertilizers
and herbicides etc, and the livestock sub-sector.

6. Knowledge gaps and research needs: concluding
remarks
Ethiopia has made some progress to prepare for and implement some water
development programs, water management activities and adaptation to
climate change, which could enhance the level of water security. However,
there are many knowledge gaps that need detail study and research that has
to be addressed to enhance the level of water security, water management
and the planning for climate change adaptation practices in the country.
There are major uncertainties in quantitative projections of changes in the

hydrological characteristics of the different basins in the country (Oates et
al., 2011). Precipitation, a principal input to water systems, is not reliably
simulated in present climate models. There is no good agreement between
models to project the future rainfall changes over Ethiopia, although some
research outputs have indicated a tendency towards slightly increasing
changes (Block, 2008; Conway and Schipper, 2011; Oates et al., 2011). As
a result the way and extent of how climate change will affect the Ethiopian
water sector is not yet well understood. This is a real challenge for policy
makers, planners and the community at large to develop long-term water
management and climate change adaptation strategies in the water and
other water-sensitive socio-economic sectors. Thus, research into the water–
climate interface is required: to improve understanding and estimation, in
quantitative terms, of climate change impacts on freshwater resources and
their management in the country and to fulfill the pragmatic information
needs of water managers who are responsible for adaptation (Conway and
Schipper, 2011). Among the research issues related to the climate–water
interface and development are:
 Detection and attribution of observed changes in freshwater

resources, with particular reference to characteristics of extremes, is
a challenging research priority, and methods for attribution of causes
of changes in water systems need refinement to develop appropriate
water management and climate change adaptation strategies,
 There is a need to improve understanding of sources of uncertainty
in order to improve the credibility of climate change projections for
impact assessments,
 Impacts of climate change on aquatic ecosystems (not only
temperatures, but also altered flow regimes and water levels) are not
adequately understood,
 Relatively few results are available on the economic aspects of climate
change impacts and adaptation options related to water resources,
which are of great practical importance for the country,
 There is a strong need for enhancing research on climate change
impacts on water quality and extreme events,
 Very little is known about the country’s groundwater resource base and
the degree of exploitation and utilization for socio-economic activities
in the country;in this regard a lot has to be done to map and quantify
the groundwater resource, and
 Efforts to quantify the economic impacts of climate-related changes
and adaptation costs in water resources are hampered by a lack of
data and by the fact that the estimates are highly sensitive to different
estimation methods and to different assumptions regarding how
changes in water availability will be allocated across various types of
water uses.
In addition to these important questions for research, there are also a number
of developmental issues that require policy attention as the country steps up
investments on water infrastructure development. These include;
 Capacity development through short, medium and long-term

training at all levels of water governance;
 Development and implementation of training programs in the ar-

eas of climate change and its impact on water resources (extreme
events, vulnerability and risk, mitigation and adaptation, hydro-
logical modeling, climate change projections, etc);
 Water resources development planning, design and operation ac-

tivities are affected by lack of data. Many watersheds and rivers
are not gauged and monitored. For this purpose, the river basins
of the country need to be equipped with standard hydrometeoro-
logical monitoring equipment and stations; and
 Management of water without managing land is seldom possible.

Unwise land use and hence land degradation as well as improper
water use in irrigated and rainfed agriculture is increasingly affect-
ing the surface and groundwater bodies. Integrated watershed
management practices need to be strengthened, and water man-
agement in both rainfed and irrigated agriculture requires atten-
tion.

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WATER AND ENERGY SUB-WORKING GROUP
ENERGY SECTOR

Executive Summary
Energy is crucial to economic and human development. Access to modern,
reliable and affordable energy services is a pre-requisite to poverty alleviation,
economic growth, and social transformation. However, at the global level, the
energy system – supply, transformation, delivery and use – is the dominant
contributor to climate change, representing around 60 percent of total
current greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. Energy development is not only
the contributor of GHG but it is also critically influenced by climate change
emanating from anthropogenic emissions.
This assessment report on energy sector and climate change is the first
assessment report by EPCC which reviewed published scientific papers and
governmental reports, research results and other relevant reports on energy
and climate change from the Ethiopian context..
In this assessment report, energy resource potential and development,

climate change and current policy measures, vulnerability of energy sectors
to climate change, mitigation and adaptation measures of energy sector and
conclusion, recommendations and some information gaps were discussed.
Ethiopia is endowed with a variety of renewable energy such as hydroelectric

power potential (more than 45,000MW), solar irradiation (avg. 5.5 kWh/
m2/day), geothermal resources, (at least 5000MW), wind power (1,350
GW), abundant biomass potential (1,120 Mt sustainably exploitable) and
agricultural waste (15-20Mt/year) and some proven potential of fossil fuel
(natural gas 113B m3, coal 300 Mt and oil shale 253Mt) while petroleum is
still at the exploration stage.
Energy development of Ethiopia is mostly based on exploitation of renewable

energy resources. Energy generated from hydropower is highly vulnerable to
fluctuations in rainfall, temperature and evaporation. For example, reduced
power production during drought years takes a significant toll on the economy.
In 2002/3 power supply was cut one day a week over four months because
of drought. This caused a sustained reduction in GDP generation. Loss of
electricity also impacts basic services, especially in schools and hospitals.
Ethiopia has taken different policy measures to mitigate and adapt climate
changes. These measures are basically based on implementation of CRGE
strategy. The most important part of this strategy in energy sector is
facilitated by improving energy efficiency in energy production (switching
from traditional fuel to other renewable energy, consumption, dissemination
of efficient technologies e.g. improved cook stoves). Policy measures were
investigated considering green development path while climate change
mitigation and adaptation were assessed based on guiding principles of
sustainable development, reliable, secure and affordable energy services,
impact on reducing GHG emissions and vulnerability to climate change and
possible synergies between various measures that may serve both adaptation
and mitigation actions.
The report concludes and recommends that it is very important to develop

energy resource that are insignificantly influenced by climate change caused
by induced factors such as temperature increase, variable rainfall, and
extended droughts and wide effort should should be practised to diversify
energy production (energy mix), improve energy efficiency, accelerate non-
grid energy access and utilizing varieties of indigenous energy resources,
localization and dissemination of efficient energy technologies, mobilize local
financial resources from both public and private sources and build the capacity
of both local communities and developers on renewable technologies and
climate matters.
This assessment report also identified the gaps of lack of freely accessible
digital databases on historic climatological and hydrological conditions.
Moreover, there are not sufficient research results as well as research
institutions provide data on relationships between climate change and the
energy supply and demand situations.
7.Introduction
Energy is at the heart of most critical economic, environmental and
developmental issues facing the world today. Clean, efficient, affordable and
reliable energy services are indispensable for global prosperity. Developing
countries in particular need to expand access to reliable and modern energy
services if they are to reduce poverty and improve the health of their citizens,
while at the same time increase productivity, enhancing competitiveness
and promoting economic growth. On the other hand, at the global level, the
energy system – supply, transformation, delivery and use – is the dominant
contributor to climate change, representing around 60 per cent of total
current greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions (AGECC 2010) 1.
Access to modern energy services is crucial to continued economic growth

and development in Ethiopia. The current level of energy consumption
dominated by traditional biomass is not adequate enough to meets the
energy needs of a growing population as well as maintaining the impressive
economic growth experienced in Ethiopia over the last two decades. The
over-reliance on biomass resources and the use of inefficient technologies is
not only hindering development in the energy sector but it also accompanied
by environmental and social consequences including land degradation,
deterioration of biodiversity and scarcity of fuel wood and water resources,
has worsened the quality of life of the people, especially rural communities
who depend mainly on this resource.
The Ethiopian Government, in its National Energy Policy, has given emphasis
in developing its huge energy resources, especially renewable energy and
diversify its energy mix to enhance supply side that can support economic
growth adequately. The commitment of the government has remarkably
conducted rapid expansion of the power infrastructure, increased use and
diversity of energy in industry, rapid rise and diversity of energy demand for
transport, increased use of off-grid electricity in rural areas and increased use
of improved cooking devices in both rural and urban areas (MoWIE 2014)2.
1
THE SECRETARY-GENERAL’S ADVISORY GROUP ON ENERGY AND CLIMATE
CHANGE (AGECC), SUMMARY REPORT AND RECOMMENDATIONS 28 April 2010New York
2
Ministry of Water, irrigation and Energy: Identification and Prioritization of Renewable En-
ergy Technologies for Development and Preparation of Project Implementation Documents:
Small Wind Generators for Rural Electrification Menz Gera Midir, North Show Zone, Amhara
Regional State
There is also a commitment to ensure that appropriate actions are taken to
reduce future GHG emissions that will arise due to rapid expansion of the
energy sector. Measures that are put in place include developing the huge
renewable energy resources in Ethiopia as well as deploying more efficient
technologies, both at the production and end-use levels.
As indicated in the Climate Resilient Green Economy strategy (CRGE 2011) of

the government, Ethiopia aims to achieve middle-income country status by
2025 by switching its development path from a conventional development to
a green economy trajectory. The government aims to avoid the unsustainable
use of natural resources, while also promoting the complete switch to the
use of renewable energy resources in order to minimize the current and
future GHG emissions resulting from fossil fuels utilization and unsustainable
exploitation of natural resources. According to the CRGE strategy, GHG
emissions would be more than double from 150 Mt CO2e in 2010 to 400 Mt
CO2e by 2030 following conventional patterns of development. The CRGE
strategy aims to reduce GHG emissions by 250 Mt CO2e by following a green
development pathway. In line with the energy policy and CRGE Strategy,
Ethiopia is actively investing in renewable energy development, especially
hydropower and wind, while it is also planning to develop its geothermal
energy resources. In addition, considerable measures have been taken to
manage the demand side by improving and disseminating efficient energy
technologies including stoves, lighting devices and equipment and utensils.
This report reviews the energy sector in Ethiopia in detail in terms of energy
resources and development, climate change, mitigation and adaptation
measures and policy measures, and concludes with a set of recommendations.
Considering energy resource potential, Ethiopia is a land of opportunities

since it is well endowed with abundant renewable energy sources. It has
huge hydroelectric power potential (more than 45,000MW), solar irradiation
(avg. 5.5 kWh/m2/day), geothermal resources, (at least 5000MW), wind power
(1,350 GW), abundant biomass potential (1,120 Mt sustainably exploitable)
and agricultural waste (15-20Mt/year). The country also has proven potential
of fossil fuel (natural gas 113B m3, coal 300 Mt and oil shale 253Mt) while
petroleum is still at the exploration stage.
Despite the abundance of renewable energy resource potential, energy

sector development of Ethiopia is still largely dominated by traditional
production and consumption of biomass resources. The use of modern liquid
and gaseous fuels and electricity plays a marginal part. According to the
Ministry of Water and Energy (2011) 3 traditional usage of biomass accounted
for 92% of energy consumption, hydrocarbon based fuels mostly used for
transport covered 7% of demand and electricity was used to meet only 1%
of the energy requirements of the country. In terms of sectoral demand,
household consumption accounted for 93% of energy consumption, the
transport sector was responsible for 5% of the demand and the commercial
and industrial sectors registered a share of only 2%. Other sectors like
agriculture had negligible demand as they are still dependent on human and
animal power. The energy resource potential of the country and the current
energy development are examined in detail in Chapter Two of this report.
Ethiopia designed and implemented a development strategy to enhance

accelerated economic development to reach the status of middle-income
countries by 2025. But traditional energy production and consumption and
global climate change are challenging the task of this development. To meet
the challenges, the government has taken various policy measures which will
enable the country to overcome the consequences of global climate change.
These include investigation of current situation of climate changes and its
consequences for instance emission trend, policy analyses and measures,
sectoral reduction mechanisms, etc. Climate change and existing policy
measures are discussed in detail in Chapter Three. This Chapter discusses
also the vulnerability of energy sector to climate change (recent trends and
future projections, its implication for the energy sector) in terms of increasing
temperature, water variability, increasing flood and other relevant issues.
In Chapter Four, adaptation and mitigation in the energy sector is reviewed

based on basic guiding principles selected by the team, which are:
Sustainable development as top priority; Providing reliable, secure and
affordable energy services for all sectors; Appropriate attention to measures
that impact on reducing GHG emissions and vulnerability to climate change;
and the possibility of synergies between various measures that may serve
both adaptation and mitigation actions, allowing the country to use its
limited resources efficiently to achieve the required goals. Even though
3
MoWE, Energy Balance and Statistics for 2005/6 – 2010/11, May 2012.

Ethiopia’s contribution to global GHG emissions is negligible, the country has
taken considerable mitigation and adaptation measures by developing and
switching to other renewable energy (solar energy, wind energy, geothermal
energy and modern biomass energy like briquette from bio-wastes, biogas,
biodiesel and ethanol), dissemination of efficient, reliable and affordable end-
use energy technologies and improving the efficiency of energy production
and distribution, which are considered as main mitigation and adaptation
options for the country. This is extensively considered in this Chapter.
Going forward, this report’s conclusions and recommendations are elaborated

in Chapter Five while Chapter Six highlights the role of sufficient knowledge
and consistent data that are the basic inputs both for energy development and
environmental wellbeing. Thus, important data and knowledge gaps must be
filled by gathering relevant climatic and energy resource and utilization data,
and their better assessment to document the interactions between climate
change and the Ethiopian energy sector with the aim of better informing
relevant decision making.
In general, this preliminary review report on energy sector was conducted

by assessing and reviewing all possible documents (government strategies,
policies and reports and other available studies) and other globally publish
literature and scientific papers to indicate current situation and future trend
of climate change and its influence on local and global development, and
to create awareness among responsible bodies for the implementation of
effective planning and response for climate change and adaptation.

8.Current Energy Situation of Ethiopia
Energy resources potential of Ethiopia
Ethiopia has abundant renewable energy resources potential including hydro,
solar, wind, geothermal and biomass. Table 2.1 highlights the major energy
resources in the country. Despite the huge potential, only a very small portion
has been developed due to the lack of or low levels of financial, technical,
and market capacity, etc.
The energy policy of Ethiopia places high emphasis on renewable energy

development and encourages diversification of the energy mix.
Table 2.1: Energy resources4
Utilization
Resources Exploitable Reserves
(%)
Hydropower [MW] 45,000 <5%
Solar/day [kWh/m2] Avg.5.5 <1
Wind power [GW] 1,350 <1
Wind Speed [m/s] > 6.5

Geothermal [MW] 5000 <1
Wood [Million tons] 1,120 50
Agricultural waste [Million tons] 15-20 30
Natural gas [Billion m3] 113 0
Coal [Million tons] 300 Negligible
Oil shale [Million tons] 253 0

Sources: GTZ and EREDPC, EEPCO; MME, and EIGS, SWERA,Wind & Solar Master Plan
The following sub-sections describe the various energy resources in Ethiopia.
4
Overview of the Energy Sector in Ethiopia, Federal Democratic Republic of Ethiopia, Minis-
try of Water, Irrigation and Energy, June 2014
Biomass
The major biomass resources in Ethiopia include wood, agricultural residues,

animal waste and human wastes are considered as major biomass resources
of Ethiopia. The estimated potentials for these biomass resources include
1,120 million tons of wood, 15-20 million tons of agricultural wastes, 27.8
million tons of dung from current livestock and poultry population annually
and about 7 million tons human waste annually. The total energy that
can be derived annually from these resources is estimated to be about
101,656.77 TCal. Woody biomass accounts for about 79% of this potential,
with contributions of 11%, 8% and 2% from animal waste, crop residue and
human waste, respectively (MoWE, 2011)5.
Fuel wood and tree residues are the major sources of energy for cooking and
lighting to the vast majority of the rural population, who reside mostly in
remote areas. The contribution of dung and crop residues for the total energy
consumption of rural households is around 18% of the total.
Table 2.2: Biomass resources—2000 [million tons]6
Region Woody Biomass Crop Resi- Dung

Stock Annual due
yield
Amhara 111 5.84 5.56 3.45
Oromiya 346 17.94 8.31 10.67
Southern Nations and 241 9.90 5.26 4.07
Nationalities
Gambela 69 3.32 0.017 0.035
Dire Dawa 0.56 0.034 0.058 0.035
Harari 0.086 0.0057 0.047 0.019
Total* 767.63 37.04 19.26 18.28
*Total excludes Tigray, Afar, Somali, Benshangul, AddisAbaba
Source: WBISPP, Reports for the regions,1997,2000, and 2001
5 Ministry of Water and Energy : Draft Climate Change Adaptation Action Plan
of Water and Energy Sector February 2011 Addis Ababa Ethiopia
6 Overview of the Energy Sector in Ethiopia, Federal Democratic Republic of
Ethiopia, Ministry of Water, Irrigation and Energy, June 2014

Table 2.3: Biomass resource availability by region in ‘000 Tons (2000)7
Woody Biomass Woredas Exceed- Crop Animal

Region ing
Stock Yield Residues Dung
Wood Yield
Tigray 30,990 810 72% 863 2,094
Afar 21,645 1,443 10% 122 2,644
Amhara 138,887 5,842 90% 6,235 7,431
Oromiya 373,345 19,905 66% 10,957 10,618
SNNP 227,949 10,098 65% 5,669 4,013
Somali NA NA NA NA NA
Benishan-
gul-Gu- 76,614 3,530 15% 211 175
muz
Gambela 69,155 3,320 0% 80 120
AddisA-
N N 100% N N
baba
Dire Dawa 568 35 71% 42 36
Harari 86 6 100% 48 17
Total 939,238 44,986 66% 24,227 27,148
NA =Not Available, N=Negligible
Source: WBISPP, 2000.

Ethiopia has a favorable weather condition to grow various biomass resources
on about 25 million hectares of land to produce biofuels from seeds of various
oil seed plants and sugar cane, (MoME 2007)8. Oil seed plants are normally
grown by the private sector, local communities, NGOs and the government
while ethanol is being produced by governmental sugar factories.
Hydropower Potential
Ethiopia is often described as the water tower of north-eastern Africa,
because most of its major rivers flow to neighboring countries in almost all
7 Ibid
8 Ministry of Mines and Energy: The Biofuel Development and Utilization Strategy of Ethio-
pia, August 2007, Addis Ababa, Ethiopia

directions as shown in Figure 2.1.
Figure 2.1: Rivers of Ethiopia
The technically exploitable hydropower potential in Ethiopia is estimated

at over 45,000 MW. This resource presents ample opportunities for the
Ethiopian government in terms of meeting growing domestic electricity
demand and economic opportunities in exporting electricity to neighboring
countries. For these reasons, the development of hydropower resources is
given high priority in the Ethiopian energy sector policies and strategies.
Ethiopia can be divided into eight large basins as depicted in Figure 2.2, seven
of which are named after the main rivers that cross the basin. The basins are:
Abbay river (Blue Nile), Awash river, Genale river, Wabi Shebele river, Baro
Akobo river, Tekeze river, Omo Gibe river and Rift Valley9.
9 Ibid

Figure 2.2: River basins in Ethiopia
Average
Installed Average Project Annualized
IDC Cost Total Cost Cost/kW Inst.
Capacity Energy Cost Cost Level i zed
Power Plant Cost Rank
(GWh/
(MW) (million $) (million$) (million$) ($/kW) (million$) ($/kWh)
year)
BekoAbo 935 6632.2 1260.8 441.3 1,702 1,820.50 170.348 0.0257 1
Genji 214 910.2 197.6 69.1 267 1,246.30 26.692 0.0293 2
Upper Mendaya 1700 8582.3 2436.4 852.7 3,289 1,934.80 329.173 0.0384 3
Karadobi 1600 7857.2 2576 901.6 3,478 2,173.50 348.027 0.0443 4
Geba 1 + Geba2 372 1709.4 572 200.2 772 2,078.40 77.275 0.0452 5
Genale6 246 1532.4 587.9 205.8 794 3,226.30 79.428 0.0518 6
Sor2 5 38.5 18.6 3.7 22 4,461.60 2.233 0.058 7
Upper Dabus 326 1460.3 628.2 219.9 848 2,601.60 84.88 0.0581 8
Gibe IV+V 2132 8051.3 3625.2 1088 4,713 2,210.50 471.651 0.0586 9
BirbirR 467 2724.1 1231.1 369.3 1,600 3,427.10 160.17 0.0588 10
Werabesa +Halele 436 1972.8 886 310.1 1,196 2,743.40 119.708 0.0607 11
146 | BIODIVERSITY AND ECOSYSTEMS

Yeda 1 + Yeda2 280 1089.4 540.2 189.1 729 2,604.50 72.982 0.067 12
Genale5 100 574.6 297.7 89.3 387 3,870.60 38.737 0.0674 13
Tams 1700 5760 3241.5 972.3 4214 2,478.70 421.715 0.0732 15
Baro 1 + Baro2
645 2614.3 1595.9 558.6 2,154 3,340.20 215.614 0.0825 16
Lower Didessa 550 975.6 619.2 185.8 805 1,463.50 80.557 0.0826 17
TekezeII 450 2720.7 1690.4 591.6 2,282 5,071.20 228.382 0.0839 18
Gojeb 150 561.7 526.8 184.4 711 4,741.40 71.177 0.1267 19
Aleltu East 189 804.1 760.6 266.2 1,027 5,433.20 102.768 0.1278 20
Abu Samuel 6 15.7 18.5 2.8 21 3,536.80 2.124 0.1351 21
Aleltu West 265 1067.3 1180.5 413.2 1,594 6,022.70 159.487 0.1494 22
Wabi Shebele 88 691 887.8 221.9 1,110 12,637.60 111.058 0.1607 23
Lower Dabus 250 637 866.3 259.9 1,126 4,504.70 112.707 0.1769 24
Table 2.4: Plan of future hydropower generation10
10 Ibid
147 | BIODIVERSITY AND ECOSYSTEMS

Wind Energy
Ethiopia has a gross wind energy resource of 3,030 GW, whereby the potential
technically exploitable wind power capacity is 1,599 GW, and the potential
economically exploitable capacity is 1,350GW (MoWE 2012)11. For technical
and economic reasons, appropriate wind regions for grid-based electricity
generation are those with wind density of 300 W/m2 (wind speed 6.5 m/s)
and above. Such wind regions primarily occur on high terrains such as ridges
and mountain tops which are mainly located at the edge of the highlands
that form the great east African rift valley and Somali regional state of
Ethiopia. Besides grid-based electrification, there is available wind potential
to generate electricity for small towns, villages, farms and other scattered
remote areas.
Seasonal and daily variation in wind velocity is considerable; wind velocity is

higher between early morning and mid-day and in terms of seasonal variation.
In the highland plateau zone there are two peak seasons – March to May and
September to November; and in the eastern lowlands, wind velocity reaches
its maximum between May and August. In most of these places, maximum
wind velocities are 3 to 4 times greater than the minimum. Medium to high
wind speed of 3.5 to 6 m/s exists in most eastern parts and central Rift Valley
areas of the country. Perhaps due to their mountainous terrain and land use/
land-cover type, most western and north-western parts of the country have
generally low wind velocity12, Figure 2.3.
11 Master Plan Report of Wind and Solar Energy in the Federal Democratic Republic of Ethio-
pia (Final Version) by Hydrochina Corporation, July 2012
12 GTZ (2007): Eastern Africa Resource Base: GTZ Online Regional Energy Resource Base:
Regional and Country Specific Energy Resource Database: II - Energy Resource.

Figure 2.3: Annual mean wind speed
The first wind installation in the country was the 51 MW Adama I Wind Farm,
built in 2011. The 120 MW Ashegoda Wind Farm started operation in October
2013 and is one of the largest wind farms in Africa13. A third Wind Farm,
Adama II Wind Farm, which has an installed capacity of 153 MW, is under
construction and is expected to be completed by early 2015.
13 Renewable Energy in Ethiopia -Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia; http://en.wikipedia.org/

wiki/Renewable_energy_in_Ethiopia

Figure 2.4: Adama I 51 MW Wind Farm (34 WTGs each generating1.5MW)
Solar Energy
Studies indicate that for Ethiopia as a whole, the yearly average daily
radiation reaching the ground is 5.26 kWh/m2. This varies significantly over
the year, ranging from a minimum of 4.55 kWh/m2 in July to a maximum of
6.25 kWh/m2 in February and March. On a regional basis, the yearly average
radiation ranges from values as low as 4.25 kWh/m2 in the areas of Itang
in the Gambella Regional State (western Ethiopia), to values as high as 6.25
kWh/m2 around Adigrat in the Tigray Regional State (northern Ethiopia).
According to the data from Solar and Wind Energy Resource Assessment
(SWERA) and Solar and Wind Master Plan studies, the national technically
exploitable potential of grid-based and building integrated distributed
PV system is about 1.1 TWh per year, whereas the national technically
exploitable potentials for off-grid distributed applications for households,
rural health centers and rural schools is about 4 TWh per year, 6.24 GWh per
year and 15.6 GWh per year, respectively. The national technically exploitable
potential of independent PV systems mainly for water lifting operations for
some households and farms is about 36 GWh per year.

Figure 2.5: Annual mean global solar radiation, kWh/m2/year
Due to its mountainous and rugged topography, a significant number of

people who reside in remote areas and villages in Ethiopia have no access to
modern utilities, primarily due to technical challenges in expanding modern
energy to those areas, thus affecting sustainable development. In such
areas, energy from solar radiation is considered as one of the best options
for a variety of applications including use for water pumping systems and
lighting systems of households, heat water for cooking, agricultural drying,
and telecommunication systems as well as for refrigerating and preserving
medicines in health centers.

Geothermal Energy
Ethiopia is among the few countries in Africa with a significant amount of
geothermal resources. These resources are found scattered throughout the
Ethiopian Rift valley and in the Afar Depression, which are both part of the
Great East African Rift System. The Ethiopian rift extends from the Ethiopia-
Kenya border to the Red Sea in a NNE direction for over 1,000 km within
Ethiopia, and covers an area of 150,000 km2. Based on investigation results,
it was found that Ethiopia could possibly generate more than 5,000 MW of
electricity from geothermal resources.
The identified areas with geothermal prospects are widespread throughout

the whole Ethiopian rift valley. Prominent among the geothermal prospect
areas are shown in Figure 2.6.
• Lakes District
Aluto-Langano, Corbetti, and Abaya;
• Southern Afar
Tulu-Moye, Gedemsa, Dofan, Fantale, Meteka, Teo, Danab;
• Northern Afar
Tendaho and Dallol (Danakil Depression)
Figure 2.6: Prospect areas of Geothermal power generation

Considering the shortage of modern energy supplies in the country and
the climate change issue due to greenhouse gas emissions, there is a need
to develop geothermal energy in Ethiopia to serve as a source of reliable
base-load power generation to increase its hydropower generation, which
relies on highly seasonal fluctuations. The diversification of energy sources
is essential in order to ensure a sustainable energy supply. The development
of geothermal power would help substitute imported fossil fuel; provide a
major backup to an uncertain hydropower supply; serve the arid and semi-
arid areas of the country where hydropower is unavailable; and , contribute
to the UNFCC effort to reduce global warming.
Others
Coal
Exploration for coal started in the 1930’s during the Italian occupation.
Some areas had been in use for brick factories since then. According to the
exploration results, coal resource estimate is 320 million tons distributed in
9 sites mainly located in the northern, central and south-western part of the
country (Delbi - 20 Million tons and Moye 50 Million tons). Other places of
occurrences are the central region (Mush Valley 0.3 Million tons) and north-
western part of the country (Chilga 19.7 Million tons, in Geba basin 250
Million tons and Wuchale 3.3 Million tons), all of which are under study (EIGS,
2008). Resource quality ranges from medium to low grade (sub-bituminous
to lignite). Some of better quality coal deposits are located in the high forest
areas in the south-western part of the country where development of sites
will potentially have serious environmental consequences.
Natural Gas
Basically in Ethiopia, proven petroleum reserve is not ascertained to-date.

However, some indications (ecological and geomorphologic) have been
recorded in the Ogaden, Gambella, the Blue Nile Gorge and Makele areas
while the potential of natural gas is promising. The first discovery of natural
gas was in 1973. This is one of the discoveries made within the east African
continental margin, which includes a wide on-shore belt that extends from
Ethiopia to South Africa through Somalia, Kenya, Tanzania and Mozambique.
In a place called ‘Calub’, located in the south-eastern part of the country,

1200 km from Addis Ababa, about 76 billion m3 of gas was discovered
(MME, 2006). In the previous years, six wells were constructed to enable
extraction of the gas at Calub field. Another promising gas field is the Hillala
area, discovered in 1974. The Hillala gas condensate pool is located 75 km
west of Calub gas field. According to a study made by the Soviet Petroleum
Exploration Expedition in 1993, the estimated initial gas in place was about
40 billion m3, (MME, 2006).
Oil Shale
The Inter-Trappean oil shale bearing sediments are widely distributed on
the south-western Plateau of Ethiopia in the Delbi-Moye, Lalo-Sopa, Sola,
Gojeb-Chida and Yayu Basins. The oil shale-bearing sediments are deposited
in fluviatile and lacustrine environments. Oil shale deposits in Ethiopia can be
used for production of oil and gas.
Energy development in Ethiopia
Ethiopia’s energy sector is dominated by the consumption of traditional

biomass resources, while the use of modern fuels and electricity play a marginal
part. The latest data show that in 2011, traditional biomass accounted for 92%
of energy consumption. Hydrocarbon-based fuels mostly used for transport
accounted for 7% of consumption while electricity accounted for only 1% of
the energy consumption in the country14. In terms of sectoral demand, the
household sector accounted for 93% of energy consumption. The transport
sector accounted for about 5% of the consumption, with the commercial and
industrial sectors accounting for only 2%. Other important sectors such as
agriculture had negligible consumption as they are still dependent on human
and animal power.
Biomass resources are exploited for the most part for self consumption by the
rural communities. Commercial exploitation of the resource, in the form of
fuel wood and charcoal, cover only around 20% of the biomass consumption.
This signifies that local availability of biomass resources plays a major role in
the supply of these fuels, with long distance trade limited mostly to charcoal.
All these have led to unsustainable exploitation of biomass resources in most
parts of the country, posing acute challenges for the future.
14 MoWE, Energy Balance and Statistics for 2005/6 – 2010/11, May 2012.

Petroleum-based fuels are mainly consumed by modern transport in urban
areas and for intercity transport. Individual vehicle ownership level remains
very low (less than 1% of population), though most urban dwellers and a
growing number of rural people use public transport with some regularity.
All of the fuels being used are imported into the country at a huge cost to the
economy and with significant impacts on its balance of payment.
The government of Ethiopia has already developed a biofuels strategy.

The main objective of the Ethiopian bio-fuels strategy program is to
enhance energy security and access to transport fuels. The strategy
is focused on allocating marginal land for bio-fuel plants cultivation,
accelerating bio-ethanol and bio-diesel development and technology
transfer, increasing domestic use and export earnings from bio-fuels
and, enhancing domestic coordination and international cooperation
for the development of biofuel resources. The bio-fuel development
program is also expected to establish and promote an agriculture-based
industry for increased agricultural and industrial outputs, employment
and exports.
There is an increase inflow of private investment in biofuels production
in Ethiopia. The government, as part of the biofuels strategy, is allocating
marginal land to investors to grow biomass resources for the production of
biofuels; more than half a million hectares of land has already been allocated
to licensed developers. Out-growers in large numbers are also increasingly
involved in this new business in large numbers.
Since fuel blending with ethanol began in October 2008, local production
of ethanol is increasing rapidly and is expected to increase even more, as
stipulated in the biofuels strategy due to the new blending market and
additional sugar factories under construction that will be producing ethanol
in large quantities. The bio-ethanol activities in Ethiopia include:
• In October 2008, distribution of E-5 blended fuels started in Addis

Ababa.
• As of March 2011, distribution of E-10 blended fuels started in Addis
Ababa.

• Currently, two oil distribution companies, Nile petroleum and Oil Libya,
carry out the blending processes.
• The Ethiopian Government is committed to the increment of production
of ethanol that the country will be producing over 194.9 million litters
at the end of 2015 (GTP) through coordinating the governmental and
private sugar industries on the wider use of technologies including
ethanol stoves. One strategy for local market development for ethanol
stoves in Ethiopia is the development and promotion of appropriate use
of proven and tested ethanol stove technologies.
Similar to other renewable energy resources, biofuel will also play significant
roles in the Ethiopian energy sector and for climate change adaptation
programs.
Historically, the use of other hydrocarbons such as coal and gas has been non-
existent, but usage of imported as well as locally mined coal in the cement
industries has started to pick up lately, though still statistically insignificant.
Hydropower is the major source of the electricity in Ethiopia, accounting for

about 92% (1,940 MW) of the total supply. This amount is, however, less than
5% of the economically exploitable potential of the hydropower resource.
Presently, only about 48% of the population live in areas with geographic
access to electricity; many towns and villages in rural areas still lack any access
to electricity. The current annual per capita electricity consumption is less
than 100 kWh, which is one of the lowest levels of consumption, even among
the least developed countries. For example, the per capita consumption in
Ethiopia is too low compared to the average Sub-Saharan Africa per capita
consumption of 500 kWh/year. Recently, due to expanding economic activities
in the country, the electricity demand is increasing at an accelerated rate.
Recently Ethiopia has interconnected with two of its neighboring countries
– Djibouti and the Sudan. Thus, the existing situation and future growth in
power demand calls for development of the hydropower resource with a
sense of urgency15. The percentage contribution of each hydropower plant to
the total capacity is represented in Figure 2.7.
15 Ibid

Figure 2.7: Percentage contribution of various hydropower plants to the total
installed capacity
Figure 2.8: Percentage contribution of various hydropower plants to the average

energy generation for the year 2010/2011

In terms of access to electricity, about 23% of households are directly
connected to the national electricity grid, though it is mainly used for lighting16.
To further expand electricity access to household and to meet the demand
of electricity by the commercial and industrial sectors, indigenous renewable
resources have been developed. Currently, the electricity generation capacity
of Ethiopia has reached around 2,200 MW. The electricity network also
consists of 12,000 km of high voltage transmission lines and 140,000 km of
medium and low voltage distribution lines bringing power to end-users. The
country has recently begun exporting electricity to Djibouti and the Sudan,
with plans to expand power export in the future.
Figure 2.9: Percentage distribution of households connected to grid electricity by

place of residence
Source: Updated Rapid Assessment and Gap Analysis on Sustainable Energy for All:
Ethiopia
Detailed projections of future energy demand are so far available only for
the electricity sector17. The sector has recently experienced a sharp increase
16 CSA, Ethiopian Welfare Monitoring Survey 2011, April 2012.

17 Ethiopian Electric Power Corporation, Ethiopian Power System Expansion Master Plan
Study, February, 2014.

in power demand with more than 20% annual growth in demand for many
years now. The rapid increases in electricity demand has started to pose a
serious challenge for the sector, necessitating hitherto unseen levels of public
investment in power generation and network expansion activities and efforts
to bring the service to new areas of the country. Accordingly, the demand
is expected to continue to rise at a significant rate for the next decade as
the country strives to attain its target of achieving a middle-income country
status by 2025. Thus, local electricity consumption is expected to rise from
the level of 6,443 GWh in 2012 to 111,000 GWh by 2037, and together with
regional power export possibilities could rise to as much as 147,000 GWh.
This indicates around a 20-fold increase in electricity demand over the time
period, highlighting that significant efforts are required to meet this challenge.
The plan in general is to develop the country’s abundant renewable energy
resources to meet this demand. These constitute hydropower, geothermal,
wind, solar and biomass resources, thus contributing to the overall green
growth strategy adapted by the country.
Concerning biomass, business-as-usual scenarios predict that, even though

the share of biomass energy will fall from around 92% today to about 70%,
the actual consumption will rise by 50% by 203018, mainly due to population
increase, thereby continuing the challenge of meeting this demand
sustainably, as well as fastening fuel shift to other forms of energy, primarily
electricity.
18 MoWE & EUEI-PDF, Biomass Energy Strategy Formulation for Ethiopia, July 2013.

Figure 2.10: Total primary energy supply of Ethiopia
Figure 2.11: Energy consumption by sector

9.Climate Change Vulnerability of the Energy Sector and
Current Policy Measures
Climate change impact assessment and implications for devel-
opment in Ethiopia
Climate change poses significant threats to Ethiopia’s development, but at
the same time presents opportunities. Climate change is not just a future
possibility for Ethiopia, it is a present reality. That is why Ethiopia should start
now to protect its people and the environment, while, at the same time,
building a green economy that will help to realize the ambitions set out in
the Growth and Transformation Plan (CRGE 2010). Ethiopia has, therefore,
embarked with a strong commitment to propel its growth and transformation
towards reaching a middle income status by the year 2025. This national vision
is anchored on environmental responsive investments and green growth. The
GTP recognizes the principles of sustainable growth as embodied in the 1997
National Environmental Policy.
In 2011, the Climate Resilient Green Economy (CRGE) strategy was adopted as a
national strategy framework to embody both sustainable green development
goals and climate change mitigation and adaptation. The Climate-Resilient
Green Economy (CRGE) initiative follows a sectoral approach and has so
far identified and prioritized more than 60 initiatives, which could help the
country achieve its development goals while limiting projected 2030 GHG
emissions to about today’s 150 Mt CO2e – about 250 Mt CO2e less than
estimated under a conventional development path. The green economy plan
is based on four pillars:
1. Improving crop and livestock production practices for higher food
security and farmer income while reducing emissions;
2. Protecting and re-establishing forests for their economic and eco-
system services, including as carbon stocks;
3. Expanding electricity generation from renewable sources of energy
for domestic and regional markets; and
4. Leapfrogging to modern and energy-efficient technologies in trans-
port, industrial and buildings sectors.
The Ministry of Water, Irrigation and Energy (MoWIE) has led the development
of the Climate Resilience Strategy for the water and energy sectors. The main
development agenda of the Ethiopian government is poverty eradication
through broad-based, accelerated and sustained economic growth. Ethiopia’s
economic growth and social development plans are set out in the Growth
and Transformation Plan (GTP1), which spans the 2010-2015 period. Through
‘Agricultural Development-Led Industrialization’, Ethiopia aims to build an
economy which has a modern and productive agricultural sector and a strong
industrial sector, ultimately increasing per capita income of the citizens so
as to reach the level of those in middle-income countries by 2025 and to
achieve the Millennium Development Goals by 2015. The sector strategy
has made in-depth analyses taking into account climate challenges such as
current climate-temperature and historical rainfall patterns and their impacts
and risks will bring negative effects on future water and energy resource
development.
The current energy situation greatly increases the country’s vulnerability to

climate change. For example, Ethiopia’s reliance on fuel wood and charcoal
brings widespread land degradation, exposing bare soil to erosive rainfall
and gulley erosion. As climate impacts increase, there is likely to be a higher
reliance on forest products for livelihoods.
Energy generated by hydropower is also vulnerable to fluctuations in rainfall,

temperature and evaporation. For example, reduced power production
during drought years already takes a significant toll on the economy. In 2002/3
power supply was cut one day a week over four months because of drought.
This caused a sustained reduction in GDP generation. Loss of electricity also
impacts basic services especially in schools and hospitals.
Ethiopia’s energy sector development is still very low and the majority of the
people are dependent on naturally existing biomass energy. Modern energy
services rely on electricity generated from hydropower and imported fossil
fuels. As indicated by various investigations, biomass and hydropower energy
resources are highly vulnerable to climate changes. Consequently, the energy
production of Ethiopia is severely affected by these changes. This situation
leads to extreme demand and supply gaps which need urgent intervention
in all directions.

Climate change risks, impacts and assumptions in the energy
sector
Like other development sectors, climate change has significant impacts
on the production, transmission and consumption of energy (Climate
Change Adaptation Program in Water & Energy Sector, 2011) (IPCC,
2014). The energy sector in Ethiopia is among the five sectors most
vulnerable to climate change and weather variability (World Bank 2008).
And this requires serious attention to be given to the impacts of climate
change on energy sector.
The impacts of climate change on energy supply and demand will not only
depend on climatic factors but also on patterns of economic growth, land
use, population growth, distribution, technological change and social and
cultural trends that shape individual and institutional actions. For example,
on the one hand changes in temperature due to climate change could affect
demand for energy in that the rising ambient air temperatures will most likely
lead to substantial increase in energy demand for air conditioning. On the
other hand, there has been little research carried out to date on how climate
change may affect energy supply. In the Ethiopian context, not enough
is said about vulnerability of climate change on the energy sector. Even
though, Ethiopia is endowed with renewable energy resources, these are
not sufficiently exploited and developed. The high demand and use of fuel
wood, which decreases the vegetation cover, exacerbates land degradation
aggravating vulnerability to climate change as shown in Table 3.1.

Table 3.1: Climate Change Impacts and Vulnerability
Vulnerability to
Climate change impacts Induced impacts
climate change
Temperature and Rainfall Extended Periods of Drought Biomass Energy
Resources Deterio-
• Increased temperature ration
followed by drought.
• Shortage of water (in some
• The average annual min- localities streams have
imum temperature over dried • Fuel wood scarci-
the country has been ty aggravated and
increasing by 0.250C • Evaporation has increased worsen the life of
every ten years while community
average annual maxi- • The growth of trees, bushes
mum temperature has and other plants that • Utilization of ani-
been increasing by 0.10C susceptible to increased mal dung and oth-
every decade (NMSA- temperature has limited er bio residues as
2001) sources of energy
• Ecosystems have been dis- is increased as
• Averaged rainfall over turbed( animal population result energy and
the whole country and crop shave affected ) food insecurity is
shows decreasing trend increased
over the northern • Increased temperature
and south-west of the could result wild fire • Both large and
country while increasing small hydropower
trend in central part production chal-
of the country (NMSA- lenged
2001)
• Loss of biomass
energy and biodi-
versity

Extreme events Extended drought Crippling hydro-
power dependent
power sectors
• Extended heavy rainfall • Increased siltation

followed by flood of hydropower
dams and damage
• Increased and extended hydro turbines by
clouds increased inci-
dences of floods
• Infrastructure for
energy produc-
tion, transmission
and distribution
could be affected
by extreme events
• Solar radiation
could be reduced
thus affecting
the effectiveness
of solar electric
systems
• Wind production
would be dras-
tically disturbed
if wind speeds
increase above
or fall below the
acceptable oper-
ating range of the
technology.
Resource poor rural farmers are the most vulnerable segment of society due
to their dependency on climate sensitive agriculture sectors for living. The
recent drought in 2003, 2009 and 2011 clearly showed the vulnerability of
farming communities to climatic impacts (CRGE, 2011).
According to the World Bank (2010), major floods also occurred in different
parts of the country in 1988, 1993, 1994, 1995, 1996 and 2006. Increased
intensity and frequency of severe weather events impact design and safety
requirements of future energy infrastructure and other capital investments.

This calls for changes in design standards in order to improve climate resilience
of energy infrastructure.
Since the early 1980s, the country has suffered seven major droughts, five
of which led to localized famines, in addition to dozens of local droughts
(World Bank, 2010; Diao and Pratt 2007, as cited in: Robinson et al., 2013).
Chronological occurrences of droughts and famine in Ethiopia are given in
Table 3.2 below.
Table 3.2: Chronology of El Niño and Drought history in Ethiopia
El Niño Years Drought/Famine Regions

1539-41 1543-1562 Hararghe
1618-19 1618 Northern Ethiopia
1828 1828-29 Shewa
1864 1864-66 Tigray and Gondar
1874 1876-78 Tigray and Afar

1880 1880 Tigray and Gondar
1887-89 1888-1892 Most of Ethiopia
1899-1900 1899-1900 Most of Ethiopia
1911-1912 1913-1914 Northern Ethiopia
1953 1953 Tigray and Wollo
1957-1958 1957-1958 Tigray and Wollo
1965 1964-1966 Tigray and Wollo
1972-1973 1973-1974 Tigray and Wollo (About 200,000 people
dead)
1982-1983 1983-1984 Most of Ethiopia
1993 1993-94 Tigray, Wollo and Addis
2002/2003 Most of Ethiopia (15 million people in
need of food assistance)
Sources: Quinn and Neal (1987); Degefu (1987); Nicholls (1993); Webb and Braun
(1994) cited in (ICPAC, 2007).

Increasing temperature and incidence of droughts affects availability of
water, biomass, crop residues, animal dung, etc, which are known to be used
both as modern and traditional energy sources. Water availability affects the
energy production from hydropower. For instance, Ethiopia faced a big power
shortage due to failed small (autumn) rains and increasing temperature in
2009, increased demand and the delay of the ongoing construction of
hydropower plants partly. This power cut cost the Ethiopian economy 1% in
GDP growth (Hilawi Lakew, 2009).
Future temperature: Modeling the future climate envelope, there is a

relatively high degree of certainty about temperature changes due to climate
change. The climate models all agree on an overall increase in temperatures
across the country and at regional scale, with a decrease in variability of
temperatures. The models suggest that Ethiopia will see further warming in
all seasons between 0.7°C and 2.3°C by the 2020’s and of between 1.4°C and
2.9°C by the 2050s. Therefore, in general, the models indicate warmer and
more consistent temperatures across the country.
Future Rainfall: Seasonal rainfall patterns may change significantly in some
regions. Rainfall is much more complicated to predict and there is less
certainty of overall trends. The climate models indicate that under some
scenarios, there may be significant changes in seasonal rainfall patterns in
some regions (see Figure 3.1).
• There will be broadly similar seasonal (i.e. month-to-month) rainfall
patterns in the western part of the country in the future, with any
changes in annual rainfall being spread across the year;
• However, the central and eastern regions may see some shifts in
monthly rainfall patterns. The wettest scenarios indicate an increase in
rainfall outside of the main Kiremt rains. However, the driest scenarios
indicate that there could be a shorter Kiremt period with less rain
in general and more significantly that the shorter Belg rains may be
reduced or even lost altogether.
• The models show a diverse range of outcomes for the south and south-
eastern region. The wettest scenarios indicate that the main gu rains
could come earlier and that deyr rains could be longer. The driest
scenarios indicate a drastic fall in the main gu rains, which could have

major consequences for food security in the Somali, Amhara and SNNP
regions.
Figure 3.1: Future temperature envelope under climate change (Draft CR, 2014)
Figure 3.2: Future month-to-month rainfall envelope under climate change (Draft

CR, 2014)
The belg and gu rains are critical factors for food security and livelihoods and
their failure has serious impacts on communities in the south and east of the
country (mainly in Somali region and in the south of Oromia and SNNPR.)
The draft CR strategy proposes the following underlying planning assumptions

based on the available analysis.
Figure 3.3: Climate planning assumptions (2046-2065) (Draft CR, 2014)
Implications for development in Ethiopia

The above planning assumptions have been mapped to the water and energy
sectors, and the subsequent implications for economic growth and poverty
reduction are highlighted below. This qualitative illustration of the potential
impacts was used to identify key areas for more detailed analysis.
Table 3.3: Key water and energy vulnerabilities to climate change (Draft CR, 2014)

Other studies have also identified significant impacts of climate change on
Ethiopia’s economic and poverty reduction objectives. The Climate Resilience
Strategy for Agriculture estimated that the worst case scenario could
negatively impact GDP by 10% or more by 2050. The recent Economics of
Adaptation to Climate Change (EACC) study concluded that impacts were felt
through three main channels: agriculture, roads and dams. Although the four
scenarios used in the EACC study are different from the ones used in the draft
CR Strategy for Water and Energy, the identified losses are significant, ranging
from around 1% reduction in GDP to over 10%.

Figure 3.4: Potential impacts of climate change on GDP in Ethiopia (World Bank)
To summarize, the main climate change impacts that challenge the Ethiopian
energy sector are water shortages, variable rains, temperature increase,
floods and drought. The main possible implications of the above mentioned
impacts are:
• Extended periods of drought will lead to reduced water availability

resulting in deteriorated fuel wood availability that worsens the lives
of rural communities, specifically women and children;
• Extended periods of drought will affect animal population and crops
causing reduced biomass residues that are used for cooking and
lighting;
• Extended periods of drought will lead to reduced water availability for
hydropower generation. The shortage of water is manifested by dried
streams/springs and some tributaries of main rivers in the country;
• The variability of rainfall such as extended and heavy rainfall will cause
flood/overflow, increasing sedimentation/siltation, which affects
hydropower dams and other water development infrastructures; and
• Changes in cloud cover, temperature and pressure patterns will directly
affect wind and solar resources.

Emission trends
Ethiopia’s contribution to global GHG emissions is very low. However, the
projected environmental impacts of conventional economic development
in Ethiopia risks following the pattern observed around the globe. If current
practices prevailed, GHG emissions in Ethiopia would more than double from
150 Mt CO2e to 400 Mt CO2e in 2030. On a per capita basis, GHG emissions
are set to increase by more than 50% to 3.0 tons CO2e and would thus exceed
the global target to keep per capita emissions between 1 ton and 2 ton per
capita in order to limit the negative effects on climate change.
In general, Ethiopia’s contribution to the global increase in GHG emissions

since the industrial revolution has been practically negligible. Even after years
of rapid economic expansion, the 2010 per capita emissions of less than 2
tons CO2e are modest compared with the more than 10 tons per capita on
average in the EU and more than 20 tons per capita in the US and Australia.
Overall, Ethiopia’s total emissions in 2010 were around 150 Mt CO2e. Of
the 150 Mt CO2e in 2010, more than 85% of GHG emissions came from the
agricultural and forestry sectors. They were followed by power, transport,
industry and buildings, which contributed 3% each, Figure 3.5.
Figure 3.5: Share of GHG emission in 2010 (Total GHG emissions 150 Mt CO2e)

Current policy measures and analysis
Ethiopia is experiencing the effects of climate change, with an increase
in average temperature and changes in rainfall patterns. Climate change
presents the necessity and opportunity to switch to a new development
pathway, which promoted economic growth as well as ensure sustainable
development. The government of Ethiopia has, therefore, initiated the
Climate-Resilient Green Economy (CRGE) strategy, to protect the country
from the adverse effects of climate change and to build a green economy
that will help realize its ambition of reaching middle-income status before
2025. The first step in implementing the CRGE vision was to develop, a Green
Economy (GE) strategy and the next stage of implementing the CRGE vision
was to develop Climate Resilience Strategy for key sectors of the economy.
The first Climate Resilience strategy focused on the agriculture and forestry
sectors (completed in 2014). The Climate Resilience strategy for water and
energy under development continues this analysis and, integrates with the
Green Economy strategy, sets the overall priorities for implementing the
CRGE. Each of the strategy and priority directions and actions are presented
below.
The Green Economy (GE) Strategy

The GE strategy identified and prioritized more than 60 initiatives, which will
enable Ethiopia to achieve its development goals while limiting greenhouse
gas emissions in 2030 to today’s levels (150 MtCO2e). These initiatives would
help to avoid 250 MtCO2e of GHG emissions in 2030 with ‘no and low regrets’
(the abatement cost of most of the options was less than $15/tCO2e). 42% of
these savings (104.1 MtCO2e in 2030) come from initiatives related to energy
and water.

Table 3.4: GHG abatement potential of major initiatives
SECTOR INITIATIVE
Electricity Exports: Exporting excess renewable en-
ergy has an abatement potential of up to
19 MtCO2e in 2030 by reducing emissions
in the neighbouring countries.
Green cities and buildings Efficient lighting: This initiative has an
abatement potential of approximately
5.1 MtCO2e, and is the largest abatement
lever in the Green Cities and Buildings
sector.
Waste gas management (biogas): Emis-
sions from landfill and liquid waste can be
reduced by 1.8 MtCO2e in 2030 through
the capture of gas.
Forestry/Soil Reduced forest degradation: Reducing
the demand for fuel wood through dis-
semination of efficient cooking and bak-
ing technologies has a total abatement
potential of around 50 MtCO2e.
Industry Energy efficiency in the cement industry:
The introduction of energy efficient tech-
nologies in the cement industry could re-
duce emissions by more than 5 MtCO2e
in 2030.
Alternate fuels in the cement industry:
An increase in the use of biomass for
cement manufacture can displace fossil
fuels and reduce emissions by up to 4.2
MtCO2e in 2030.

Transport Alternates transport fuels: Changing the
transport fuel mix using a combination
of adding biodiesel to the diesel mix-
ture, increasing the amount of ethanol in
the gasoline mixture and promoting the
adoption of hybrid and plug-in electric
vehicles has a combined abatement po-
tential of nearly 1.0 MtCO2e.
Electric rail development: Shifting freight
transport from road to an electric rail
network would eliminate emissions from
the largest source of transport emissions,
avoiding 8.9 MtCO2e. A further 0.1 Mt-
CO2ewill be avoided by the Addis Ababa
light rail.
Under the GE, providing a focus for action, the CRGE has already four
fast tracked initiatives, which are important enablers for the country’s
economic development, and their implementation is feasible and
considered as a priority by the government for implementation as
shown in Table 3.5 below.
Table 3.5: Four fast-tracked initiatives

Sector Reduction Mechanism (SRM)
The Sectoral Reduction Mechanism (SRM), as part of the CRGE, is a
comprehensive system for reducing vulnerability and emissions. The SRM
is a mechanism for mobilizing action on climate change on the ground.
The purpose of the SRM is to reduce emissions and vulnerability to build
a climate resilient green economy with zero-net carbon emission by 2025
through providing upfront support and ex-post payment for the preparation
and implementation of reduction interventions. The SRM has three main
aims, which together will help achieve its purpose. First, the SRM will help to
mainstream green growth and resilience into Ethiopia’s broader development
activities. Second, the SRM will ensure that Ethiopia’s efforts to acquire
low carbon and climate resilient technologies to build a green and resilient
economy are aligned and coordinated. Finally, the SRM will leverage climate
related investment.
The objective of the Sector Reduction Mechanism (SRM) is to elaborate the

policy, technical, institutional and financial requirements and the modes of
operation to:
1. Enable the implementation of Ethiopia’s Climate Resilient Green
Economy vision and strategy through attracting, accessing, blending
and leveraging domestic and international public and private invest-
ment by engaging with bilateral and multilateral grant providers,
lenders, investors and carbon traders in order to unlock the potential
of the engines of a climate resilient green growth that will move Ethi-
opia towards becoming a climate resilient middle income country
with zero increment of emission from the 2010 level;
2. Provide the support required for the preparation and implementa-
tion of sectoral reduction policy measures, sectoral reduction actions
and concrete sector-wide investment proposals for the penetration
of both low carbon and resilient green technologies now, up to and
beyond 2025.
3. Stimulate market demand for and increased availability of green
goods and services both for consumption and productive use; and
4. Track the progress towards enabling Ethiopia to achieve a climate re-
silient middle income status with zero net carbon emission through
the monitoring, reporting and verification (MRV) of reduction actions
and results.

Types of Actions
5. Actions that reduce the cost of vulnerability and the quantity of
emissions spans from unsupported, supported, rewarded to credited
actions.
6. Unsupported actions will be encouraged, but will not be obligated to
fulfill strict measurement, reporting and verification requirements.
However, they may be recorded and recognized as Ethiopia’s contri-
bution to the global good.
7. Supported and rewarded actions should comply with strict measure-
ment, reporting and verification requirements.
8. Credited actions should comply with international requirements is-
sued pertaining to reduction, avoidance and/or removal of green-
house gas emissions and issuance of carbon credits.
Currently, the sector reduction strategy for the Ministry of Agriculture has
been finalized, while the strategy for the Ministry of Water, Irrigation and
Energy is under consultation. Analyses on the impacts and risks on the water
and energy sector are highlighted below:
The Climate Resilience Strategy: Water and Energy Sector

The Climate Resilience strategy, in its draft stage, sets out the implementation
priorities for the Ministry of Water, Irrigation and Energy, building on the
Green Economy strategy. As has been stated before, Ethiopia’s highly variable
climate has always been a major challenge and has a significant impact on
the country’s development objectives. Climate change further increases this
uncertainty in three main ways:
1. Continued temperature increase of 0.8 to 2.7°C;

2. Continued rainfall variability with more frequent extremes;
and
3. Parts of the country could see changes in key seasonal rain-
fall.
Since most of Ethiopia’s existing plans for water and energy are core parts
of delivering the CRGE vision, accelerating delivery of the existing plans of
the MoWIE has paramount importance. Based on the above climate planning
assumptions, 11 strategic priorities listed in Table 4.2 below, have, therefore,

been identified, which will be elaborated after more detailed analysis of
implementation options.
Objectives of the Strategy

In light of this and given the key role of water and energy in the GTP, the
Climate Resilience Strategy for Water and Energy describes:
• The Challenge: Identification of the economic and social impacts of

current climate variability and future climate change on water and
energy in Ethiopia.
• The Response: Identification of the priorities that the water and energy
sectors can build climate resilience and reduce the impact of climate
variability and climate change.
• Implementation: Mapping the necessary steps to finance and
implement measures in the water and energy sectors to build climate
resilience in Ethiopia and deliver an integrated Climate Resilient Green
Economy.
In the energy sector, four strategic priorities have been identified as response
measures.
Power Generation
Strategic Priority 1.1: Diversify energy mix – hydropower production is
hugely dependent on rainfall. Therefore, the energy mix has to be diversified
to minimize the uncertainty of hydropower generation in times of prolonged
droughts. This requires some key strategic decisions to ensure that a diverse
and stable energy mix can be delivered. The recent planned sector reforms
need to be fully implemented.
Strategic Priority 1.2: Improve energy efficiency – increasing energy efficiency

can contribute towards reduction in the demand for electricity.
Energy Access
Strategic Priority 2.1: Improve efficiency of biomass use –the demand for
biomass can be reduced by increasing fuel efficiency. The National Improved
Cook Stoves Program can contribute significantly to reducing demand.

Strategic Priority 2.2: Accelerate non-grid energy access–the Rural
Electrification Fund needs to be revised to deliver at scale. Pilot micro-
generation projects need to be funded to demonstrate the potential for mini-
and micro-grid and off-grid solutions.
Nationally Appropriate Mitigation Action (NAMA)

In line with commitments within the Copenhagen Accord, Ethiopia compiled
and submitted the country’s voluntary Nationally Appropriate Mitigation
Actions (NAMAs) from various sectors, to the Executive Secretary of the
UNFCCC in January 2010. The NAMAs contain aspirational targets for actions
across the sectors to mitigate climate change which, under commitments
made within the Copenhagen Accord, should be afforded financial and
technological assistance from industrialized nations.
A summary of NAMAs specific objectives for the energy sector is provided

below.
• Electricity generation from renewable energy for the grid system

o Hydropower: Ten hydropower generation facilities to be completed
with 5,632 MW power generation capacities by 2015
o Hydropower projects under study: Hydroelectric power generation
studies to be completed with potential of 8,915 MW capacities
o Wind power projects: Seven wind power projects, with a total of 762
MW electric power generation capacities to be completed by 2013
o Geothermal power projects: Six geothermal power projects with a
total of 450 MW electric power generation capacities to be completed
in 2018
• Bio-fuel development for road transport and for household use (to
produce ethanol & biodiesel)
• Electricity generation from renewable energy for off-grid use and
direct use of renewable energy
o Solar home systems, small hydroelectric power generation facilities,
wind pumps, solar pumps, institutional photovoltaic systems, solar
lanterns, solar water heaters, solar cookers, improved biomass
household stoves, biodiesel stoves, household biogas, institutional
biogas plants.
10.Adaptation and Mitigation Measures in the Energy
Sector
Identification of Response Measures
For the purpose of identifying Ethiopia’s energy sector responses to the
unfolding reality of climate change, there is a need to identify a set of
priorities that need to be addressed if the country is to contribute reasonably
to the global mitigation effort and at the same time be well prepared to meet
the consequences of the evolving climate situation. In order to strike the
right balance between climate change adaptation and mitigation measures,
and also benefit from maximum possible synergies, there is a necessity to
examine the issue at hand from multiple perspectives, including realistic
expectations of how much the country might contribute to the reduction of
GHG emissions, the degree of vulnerability it faces, the need to achieve rapid
social and economic development, the interactions with other sectors and
the likes.
The water and energy sectors have identified and prioritized the most
appropriate response measures for climate change adaptation program
(2011), categorized into two broad categories. These categories are (1) macro
level/governmental long-term development programs and (2) local micro
level/grass root level interventions, as shown Table 4.2 below. Some of these
proposed measures are under implementation.
The water and energy sectors have identified and prioritized the most
appropriate response measures for climate change adaptation program
(2011), categorized into two broad categories. These categories are (1) macro
level/governmental long-term development programs and (2) local micro
level/grass root level interventions, as shown Table 6.2 below. Some of these
proposed measures are under implementation.
Table 4.1: List of projects for climate change adaptation in water and energy sector
No Project Title
1 Development of multipurpose dams
2 Promotion of water harvesting technologies
3 Development of flood control and early warning system
4 Watershed management to rehabilitate the degraded land
5 Promotion of universal access plan
6 Implementation of demand management program
Development of standards and design criteria for installation water
7
schemes
8 Development of water supply and sanitation mapping
9 Development of small-scale wind and solar pumps
Institutional and small-scale industries biomass energy conversion technol-
10
ogies
Dissemination of solar home system and institutional photovoltaic (PV )
11
system
12 Dissemination of efficient biomass stoves
13 Dissemination of biogas digester
14 Development and promotion of small scale bio-fuel technologies
The most important priorities that will serve as principles guiding the
determination of appropriate response measures are described in the
following subsection. The process then will progress to the next step of
listing the various measures proposed and evaluating their worth against the
guiding principles.
Guiding principles
One of the most important challenges facing Ethiopia today is achieving rapid
and sustainable economic development. The rate of poverty has continued to
diminish, and the incidence of poverty declined markedly between 2004/0519
and 2010/11. The headcount poverty rate fell from 38.7 % in 2004/05 to 29.6
% in 2010/11. Even incorporating population growth, this implies that there
were fewer people living in poverty in total than there were in 2004/05. All
this implies that Ethiopia is on the right track to achieving the Millennium
Development Goals target of reducing poverty by half by 2015 (Development
19 Ethiopian fiscal year runs between July 7 and July 6 of consecutive years.

and Poverty in Ethiopia 1995/96-2010/11, MoFED, June 2013). The challenge
to continue to eradicate poverty altogether still remains. Moreover there is
a national endeavor to reach a middle income country status by 2025. To
achieve this vision, the country has been registering for many years now
one of the fastest economic growth rates in Africa averaging 11.4% between
2003/4 and 2010/11 Ethiopian fiscal years (MOFED, National Accounts
Statistics (GDP) Estimates for 2003 EFY, 2011). On the other hand, at 2.5% per
annum, the population growth rate is also very significant. These two factors
have together brought about significant pressure on the country’s natural
resources, and also huge requirements in terms of financial, institutional and
human resources. Thus the need for sustainable development is one of the
topmost national priorities.
The provision of modern energy plays a critical driving role in achieving

development targets. Emphasis here is on the need to have a sustainable
provision of reliable, secure and affordable energy to meet the needs of the
economy and society at large. Ethiopia’s per capita energy consumption in
2010 was only 960 kg/year of bio-energy, 25 kg/year of petroleum-based
fuels and less than 100 kWh/year of electricity, which is one of the lowest
in the world20. Evidently development and building a modern economy will
entail the production and consumption of much larger amounts of energy
than today. As the country moves from an agrarian economy that relied very
little on modern energy, into one in which the manufacturing and service
sectors play a growing role, demand for energy will keep rising in parallel.
Concerning electricity alone, in the GTP period (since 2011) an average of 21%
sales growth has been registered (EEPCO, 2013). It must be noted that there
is a large amount of suppressed demand in the sector and the actual demand
is much higher. Future projections also show that this fast demand growth
trend will continue. By 2037 electricity demand will be 10 times the current
levels. Ethiopia also plans to export electricity to the east African region and
even beyond, which not only helps the country earn foreign currency income,
but also contributes to the reduction of GHG emissions from the region as
it often displaces fossil-fuel based generation. All these facts highlight the
unavoidable need for large increases in electricity generation and related
20 Updated Rapid Assessment and Gap Analysis on Sustainable Energy for All (SE4All): The
UN Secretary General Initiative, Ethiopia, December 2013

facilities. Consumption of other fuels in the domestic, transport, industry and
service sectors will also grow rapidly in line with the rising levels of living
standards and higher levels of economic activity. Therefore, the country
requires the development of an energy sector that provides reliable, secure
and affordable energy services for all sectors.
Historically, global climate change has been more pronounced since industrial
revolution, because of its abundant extraction and utilization of world energy
resources specifically fossil fuels by developed nations. Like other developing
countries, Ethiopia has insignificant contribution to this historical emission of
anthropogenic greenhouse gases from fossil fuel. This is because most of its
energy production and consumption is based on renewable energy (biomass
and hydropower).
Ethiopia’s current contribution to the global increase in GHG emissions since

the Industrial Revolution has been practically negligible. Even after years of
rapid economic expansion, today’s per capita emissions of less than 2 t CO2e
are modest compared with the more than 10 t per capita on average in the
EU and more than 20 t per capita in the US and Australia. Overall, Ethiopia’s
total emissions of around 150 Mt CO2e (in the year 2010) represent less than
0.3% of global emissions (CRGE, 2011). On the other hand, Ethiopia is one
of the most vulnerable countries to adverse effects of global climate change
arising from induced anthropogenic greenhouse gases into the atmosphere.
When the energy sector’s GHG emission is examined further:
The contribution of power sector only accounts for very low emissions as it
is largely based on hydropower accounting for more than 90% of total power
generation capacity, supplemented by the use of off-grid diesel generators.
As more than 80% of the country’s population is engaged in the small-

scale agricultural sector and live in rural areas, traditional energy sources
represent the principal sources of energy in Ethiopia. Thus the main emission
contribution in energy sector comes from forest degradation due to fuel
wood consumption (25.3 Mt CO2e) which is 46% of the emission from the
forestry sector (55 Mt CO2e in 2010).
Although Ethiopia is not a producer of fossil fuels, it imports fossil fuels from

abroad, which is used mostly for transport and industry sectors. This is also
costing the country to expend significant amount of its foreign currency.
Concerning GHG emissions, these imported fossil fuels contribute towards
the country’s emission.
Ethiopia’s energy sector has insignificant contribution to global climate

change but it has taken considerable mitigation and adaptation measures
by designing and implementing various development policies, strategies and
programs. All these development policies, strategies and programs increase
the capacity of the country to resist influences from local and global climate
changes. Some of these are:
• Development and implementation of energy policy that initiate

environmentally friendly development of renewable energy
• Implementation of Plan for Accelerated and Sustained Development
to End Poverty (PASDEP, 2006-2010), which realized for the country an
average annual growth rate of 11 %.
• Growth and Transformation Plan(GTP, 2010-2015)) that aims at fostering
sustainable development to achieve the Millennium Development
Goals (MDGs) with targeted investments in selected sectors to enable
Ethiopia transition from a Least Developed Country (LDC) to a middle
income country by 2025.
• Implementation of CRGE (2011-2030). This sectoral based emission
reduction enables the country to attain fast development (reaching
the status of middle income countries) without causing negative
climate change impacts and it also enhances efforts towards reducing
vulnerability and GHG emissions. CRGE provides the country the
opportunities to obtain financial support and technology transfer from
abroad through ongoing climate change negotiation efforts (using
negative impacts of global climate change as opportunity).
In recognition of the above mentioned historical facts, Ethiopia should give
appropriate attention to measures that impact on reducing GHG emissions
and vulnerability to climate change.
Like many developing countries, Ethiopia’s financial, technical, human

and institutional resources are limited. This requires careful prioritization
of initiatives for adaptation and mitigation mechanisms. Where possible,

selecting measures that help to address both adaptation and mitigation
significantly is to be given consideration since this brings cost effectiveness.
Thus, the possibility of synergies between various measures that may serve
both adaptation and mitigation actions allows the country to use its limited
resources efficiently to achieve the required goals.
Mitigation and adaptation potentials and possibilities

From the Ethiopian context, both mitigation and adaptation measures arise
from the implementation of the green economy strategies as discussed in the
previous sections, and the specific initiatives, that are in line with the guiding
principles stated above, are detailed in this section.
Mitigation Measures
From the Ethiopian context, the major mitigation options in the energy
sector are based on, distribution and consumption for both traditionally
used biomass and modern energy, efficient energy use in all sectors of
Ethiopia, provision of efficient biomass and modern energy technologies,
sustainable and controlled harvesting natural resources, specifically biomass
resources, fuel switching to other renewable energy resources such as hydro,
geothermal, wind and solar, improving data collection on energy production
and facilitating the participation of the private sector in energy production by
investigating and avoiding all barriers.
Theses mitigation measures are classified into three main categories which
are: (a) dissemination of efficient end-use energy conversion technologies,
especially in biomass production, conversion and utilization technologies; (b)
switching to other renewable and modern energies in households, industry,
services and transport sectors; (c) using renewable energy sources for power
generation.
a) Disseminating energy efficient end-use energy conversion

technologies
Energy Efficient Biomass Stoves

The limitation of developing other renewable energy resources exert
extreme burden on biomass resources of the country which manifested by

forest degradation, because the majority population who have no access
to modern energy depend on unsustainably collected and consumed fuel
wood. This results in fuel wood scarcity and depletion of water resource21
which worsen the life of people specifically those who reside in rural areas.
Therefore, both demand and supply side intervention is a very crucial issue
to mitigate environmental problems resulting from unsustainable utilization
of the biomass resources.
Fuel wood is still the most important energy source in the household and
service sectors of Ethiopia and the major contributor to greenhouse gas
emission. As indicated in CRGE strategy (2011), it contributes 46% of
emission from forestry sector (55mt CO2e). Fuel wood is collected by users
in rural areas while it is purchased in urban areas. Basically free access to
biomass resources of the country has significant contribution to its depletion
and emission. However, dissemination of fuel wood saving technologies has
been identified as very important emission reduction measure in the energy
sector.
Energy efficient biomass stoves commonly substitute traditional open fire

stoves (three stone stoves) used in most of rural households. Ministry of
Water, Irrigation and Energy collaborating with regional energy institutions
and other stakeholders disseminate efficient biomass stoves such as Mirt
stove for baking, Tekikil and Rocket stoves for cooking to improve economical
and the health of rural communities and to reduce CO2 emission from
inefficient utilization of biomass resources.
According to World Bank Environmental Department (2011), in developing

countries, about 730 million tons of biomass is burned each year, amounting
to more than 1 billion tons of carbon dioxide (CO2) emitted into the
atmosphere.
Ethiopian has already taken considerable measures to reduce GHG emission

from biomass fuel utilization by improving and disseminating energy efficient
biomass stoves. Therefore, at the end of 2006 EFY about 13.59 millions of
improved biomass cook stoves were disseminated which were 7.01million up
to 2002EC (baseline year of GTP 1) and 6.58 million during GTP 1 (from 2003
21 Current situation indicates that some of streams and rivers became dried while the
volume of some rivers shows decreasing pattern from year to year

to 2006 EC) (MoWIE, 2014).
Basically biomass energy is the main source of energy and it will also continue
to play dominant role in future Ethiopian energy consumption. As a result it
will also remain a significant contributor of CO2 emission to the atmosphere.
Since 2014 about 13.59 million improved biomass cooks were disseminated
and it is also designed to disseminate about 34 million improved biomass
cook stoves by 2030 (CRGE 2011). The implementation of this measure
has contributed not only to the reduction of CO2 emissions from inefficient
utilization of biomass resources but it has led to sustainable biomass harvesting
with multi-dimensional outcomes: (1) it reduces deterioration of forest cover
(minimize elimination of biodiversity); (2) increase CO2 sequestration; and (3)
improve social and economic situations of rural communality. Particularly it
reduces burden on rural women consequently, adaptation to climate change
is enhanced.
As also indicated in CRGE (2011) forest degradation leads to CO2 emissions,

and is primarily caused by fuel wood consumption and logging in excess of the
natural yield of the forests, with the major driver being population growth,
emissions are projected to grow from around 25 Mt CO2 in 2010 to almost
45 Mt in 2030. On the other hand, the projection by CRGE (2011) indicates
that the single most important lever is to reduce demand for fuel wood
through fuel wood efficient stoves, offering a potential of almost 35 Mt CO2
reduction, while other advanced cooking and baking technologies (electric,
biogas, and LPG stoves) offer an additional combined potential of more than
15 Mt CO2. Capturing this abatement potential requires the switch of more
than 20 million households to more efficient stoves.
In general, emission reduction activities in energy sector should give special

attention to this area (improving and dissemination of energy efficient
biomass stoves) specifically in household and service sectors which has multi-
dimensional advantages as summarized below:
• It mitigates CO2 emission;

• It improves life of rural communities specifically women and children by
reducing indoor air pollution. Currently, it is estimated that worldwide
2 million lives mostly women and children—are lost annually, resulting

from exposure to indoor biomass cooking smoke (World Bank 2011)22;
• Energy efficient biomass stoves improve the economic capacity of rural
community by reducing time and money spent to collect and buy fuel
wood, respectively. Specifically it builds the capacity of rural women to
adapt vulnerability from climate change by diverting time for collecting
fuel wood to productive activities;
• It is possible that time not spent on household drudgery could be used
for income-producing activities, thus reducing poverty in the country
and improving overall adaptive capacity;
• It reduces deforestation that would result from unsustainable fuel
wood harvesting; consequently emission from burning biomass fuel
is reduced and CO2 sequestration from atmosphere is also facilitated;
and
• It reduces the loss of biodiversity.
Other energy efficiency options
Other energy efficiency measures play a minor role in GHG emissions today
but will be important in the future as the economy and populations expand -
Transport, industrial and buildings (CRGE, 2011)
These sectors and their climate related measures will be elaborated in a

separate report. However in order to highlight the linkages between the
energy sector supply side and the demand side as represented by these
sectors it is important to mention here that demand side energy efficiency
measures, selection of appropriate technologies and fuel switch in these
sectors is often the most cost effective ways to reduce potential GHG
emissions and also help bring greater access to modern energy and higher
medium to long term economic, social and environmental gains.
In the transport sector the initiative is to introduce stricter fuel efficiency

standards for passenger and cargo transportation and promote the purchase
22 World Bank Environment Department: Household Cook stoves, Environment,

Health, and Climate Change: A New Look at an Old Problem, May 2011

of hybrid and electric vehicles to counter the low efficiency of the existing
vehicle fleet.
Use of inexpensive electricity generated from renewable energy to help curtail

the growth of off-grid fossil-fuel energy use (ex. diesel generators, kerosene
lamps), which is the largest source of GHG emissions in the buildings sector in
2010. Green economy initiatives identified to achieve this involve accelerated
transition to high efficiency light bulbs for residential, commercial, and
institutional buildings.
Among the industrial sub-sectors, cement will be one of the fastest growing,
also causing the vast majority of GHG emissions from the industry sector.
Output will increase tenfold from 2.7 Mt in 2010 to 27 Mt in 2015. Some
cement factories use outdated technology that is not only energy inefficient,
but also causes high emissions from the production process. The initiatives
identified in terms of energy efficiency include improved energy efficiency of
the process by converting the technology used from dry to pre-calciner kilns
and from rotary to grate coolers and by introducing computerized energy
management and control systems, which can decrease the energy demand
and hence the cost of and emissions from cement production.
The cement sub-sector has been highlighted because it represents the most
GHG emitting industry and its GHG abatement initiatives have high chances
of implementation, action to put the other industrial sub-sectors also on a
sustainable economic development path is also required. The textile, leather,
steel, chemicals, mining and fertiliser industries are important parts of the
envisaged economic development model of the country (CRGE, 2011).
b) Fuel switching
Since the majority of the population of Ethiopia is utilizing biomass energy

resources with traditional energy technologies (stoves), diverting this
situation to modern energy is one of the modern energy options available (fuel
switching) for mitigation. This enhances the accessibility of the community to
modern energy technologies.
These include:

• Disseminating biogas stove for cooking/boiling (100% fuel wood
saving),
• Electric stoves for baking, cooking and boiling (electric from hydro-
source and 100% fuel wood saving)
• LPG stove for cooking and boiling (89% GHG abatement potential) are
used as mitigation options in Ethiopia
• Increasing biogas production for cooking and lighting
• Increasing production of briquette from biomass wastes
• Increasing bio-fuel production both ethanol and biodiesel for household
and institutional consumption
Energy switching is also important mitigation measure in other sectors. For
the transport, industrial and building sectors, the following measures are
supported to reduce GHG emissions and also introduce significant social,
economic and environmental co-benefits (CRGE, 2011):
• Construct an electric rail network – powered by renewable energy –

to substitute road freight transport. Shifting transport from road to
electrified rail would not only decrease transport costs and improve
the trade balance through reduced import of fossil fuels (economic
benefits), but would also lower emissions, congestion, air pollution,
and traffic accidents (social and environmental benefits).
• Improve urban transport in Addis Ababa by introducing urban electric
rail, and enabling fast and efficient bus transit
• Substitute imported fossil fuels with domestically produced biodiesel
and bio-ethanol.
• Increase share of biomass (bio-residue) in the mix of energy for
production in cement factories, potentially decreasing costs and
emissions.
c) Renewable energy for power generation
Renewable power production is the third main strategy for mitigation. It is

also playing a great role in keeping Ethiopia’s GHG emissions low in the future
Ethiopian economic development Nevertheless, its contribution to climate
change mitigation is smaller compared to the other measures as long as the

current national commitment to clean and renewable electricity production
continues.
Ethiopia is endowed with ample natural resources that can be used for
electricity generation. This is achieved primarily by exploiting its vast potential
for hydro, geothermal, solar, wind power, biomass, etc – all of which would
deliver electricity at virtually zero GHG emissions. The main Ethiopian power
system is largely based on hydropower so far, but there is a national policy to
increase the energy mix by diversifying to the other renewable sources. For
isolated or remote villages electric production is designed to be produced
from solar, small wind generators, small hydro etc. to mitigate climate change
and its adverse impacts. To facilitate and maximize energy production from
renewable resources policy measures have been taken to increase the
participation of the private sector in energy production.
If adequately captured, the projected power supply could even exceed the
growing domestic demand. Hence, increasing the supply and at the same
time maximizing energy efficiency offers the possibility to export clean energy
to neighbouring countries. Since environmental problems are global, these
electricity exports, in turn, provide the opportunity to replace electric power
generated from fossil fuels in these countries, which has significantly higher
average costs and significantly higher emissions. Thus via electricity exports,
Ethiopia can share its green development to other countries in the region
while contributing positively to its trade balance Moreover, the generation of
clean and renewable electric power also allows green development of other
sectors of the economy, such as the replacement of trucks by electric rail or
diesel pumps by electric pumps for irrigation. (CRGE, 2011).
Adaptation measures
As indicated in previous sections the draft CR strategy is under development,
and the following strategic priorities are implemented for building resilience
for the energy sector:
Diverse energy mix

Hydropower production is dependent on rainfall, so the aim is to diversify
the energy mix to minimize the generation uncertainty. The climate resilience

analysis reinforces the decision to continue to diversify the generation mix.
This requires some key strategic decisions to ensure that we can deliver a
diverse and stable energy mix.
Improve energy efficiency

Increasing energy efficiency will reduce the demand for electricity creating
favorable situation for adaptation, while at the same time leads also to the
reduction of GHG emissions.
Managing energy demand will help reduce the climate risk to power supply
as well as increasing resource efficiency. The Energy Proclamation (No.
810/2013) sets out how energy efficiency will be managed and promoted
by the Ethiopian Energy Authority (EEA), including the establishment of the
Energy Efficiency and Conservation Fund. Further regulations and directives
are in development to implement the Proclamation. The Ethiopian Energy
Authority (EEA) is responsible for developing and implementing energy
efficiency strategies and programs. In a hydropower dominated country like
Ethiopia, energy saving is more important than reducing maximum demand
as the generation system is constrained by energy available rather than
capacity. However, it is prudent to target both energy and demand as this
would reduce infrastructure costs and losses. The EEA and the Green Economy
strategy have identified 4 core energy efficiency policies and programs.
• Continue actions to promote efficient lighting in domestic and industrial

sectors.
• National Energy Efficiency Labeling Program
• Energy Audits in industrial, commercial and public sector
• Energy Efficiency awareness to general public
Successful implementation of these programs could significantly reduce
energy demand and peak power demand in 2030 if they lead to technology
and behavioral change. Two shifts in particular could contribute 97% of
potential savings:
• Switching to efficient lighting in residential, industrial and commercial

settings

• Upgrading to efficient motors in industrial and irrigation usage.
Energy Access
Improve efficiency of biomass use – reducing the demand for biomass by
increasing fuel efficiency. The National Improved Cook-stoves Program can
contribute significantly to reducing demand.
To secure sustainable domestic energy needs, biomass needs to be used more

efficiently whilst improving living standards. The Biomass Energy Strategy
has been developed in partnership between MoWIE, MEF and a National
Programme for Improved Household Biomass Cook Stoves Development
& Promotion in Ethiopia (known as the National Improved Cook Stoves
Programme, NICSP) has been developed with a goal of distributing 30 million
cook stoves by 2031. To date the program has distributed 6.8m cook-stoves
throughout the country. The NICSP needs ongoing support to establish
mechanisms for effective program implementation, market development,
quality control and monitoring. However, only 2% of the required funds are
in place, which leaves a shortfall of USD 245m. There is a need to explore
innovative approaches for securing this funding, including by linking to the
second order benefits, such as reductions in emissions, deforestation and
dam siltation.
Accelerate non-grid energy access

The Rural Electrification Fund needs to be revised to deliver at scale. Pilot
micro-generation projects need to be funded to demonstrate the potential
for mini- and micro-grid and off-grid solutions.
Securing sustainable energy for all plays a role in building climate resilience
and is an important part of our poverty eradication ambitions. The Universal
Electricity Access Plan plays a key role, but given Ethiopia’s challenging
geography, it is not always economically feasible to extend the grid to remote
communities, therefore there is a need to develop more off-grid options
alongside developing non-electricity energy access.
The Rural Electrification Fund was established in 2003 (Proclamation No

317/2003) to provide loans and technical assistance for rural electrification.
To date, around 20,000 Solar Home Systems have been installed through REF,

with a further 8,000 planned across 4 regions. Design and environmental
studies have also been carried out for 5 micro-hydro schemes and for 4
micro-solar schemes.
REF’s current structure and delivery model has been effective to date, but
needs to be revised to deliver at scale. There is a need to review the current
approach and develop more effective delivery models that can deliver off-
grid energy access at scale. This will require co-ordination of REF activities
with EEP’s grid expansion plans to avoid stranded assets and develop an
integrated plan for extending electricity access.
In addition to REF, MoWIE has several alternative energy programs for

increasing access to modern fuels including the National Biogas Program
for Ethiopia (NBPE) and Biofuel Program. The institutes must build on this
experience to develop effective delivery models that can accelerate non-grid
energy access and strengthen the impact of REF and other programs. MoWIE
is finalizing the country’s Sustainable Energy for All Action Plan, which aims
to accelerate these existing efforts and plans.
Cross-cutting issues
Data systems for decision support – strengthening data systems so that they
provide timely, reliable and usable data to decision makers at all level.
High quality data is only valuable if it is used to inform decision-making. In

addition to improving the datasets, we need to improve the way that data is
used to inform policy and ensure that complex modeling can be translated
into relevant policy implications. Therefore one must focus the development
of data systems on the information that end-users require to inform their
decisions.
Accelerate delivery of existing plans – a common theme across the CR

Strategy is that most of our existing plans already support CRGE, but we need
to accelerate delivery and implementation. Key bottlenecks are co-ordination
and streamlining of plans, performance feedback and monitoring gender.
• Coordination and streamlining of plans – there is a significant amount

of activity in the energy sector and multiple development partners,
which can overlap and conflict. Co-ordination must be improved by

more clearly setting out a common agenda and plan. The energy sector
does not currently have a Sector Working Group but must take steps to
improve co-ordination of plans, working with development partners.
• Performance feedback loops – improve accountability, reporting and
learning mechanisms. Currently disparate projects need to group by
policy priorities and incorporate into MoWIE strategic oversight.
• Monitoring gender impacts – many of the current plans and programs
contribute significantly to gender equality and women’s development.
However, much of this is not adequately captured and reported.
Diversification of power generation, provision of decentralized and non-
utility power supplies, supply and demand side efficiency measures and
the application of an Integrated Resource Planning as a decision support
mechanism for the power sector are also measures proposed for creating
long-term reliability and sustainability in electricity provision by the Report
on Hydropower Risks (Helawi Lakew, 2009) and thus align very well with the
recommendations proposed by the draft CR strategy.
Green development path also facilitates adaptation of the country to global

and local climate change, creating interdependence and feedback between
adaptation and mitigation measures. The effect of mitigation measures on
adaptation can be seen from the fact that mitigation reduces the potential
severity of the impacts of climate change, which in turn make adaptation to
the new realities easier and less costly. Though Ethiopia’s contribution to the
global mitigation effort is modest, the measures themselves play no small
part in helping the country adapt and have sustainable development. All
three groups of mitigation measures, i.e. biomass and other energy efficiency
measures, fuel switch and the development of diverse renewable energy
based power supply also figure prominently for their climate resilience
potential.
Expanding electricity generation form renewable energy for domestic and

regional markets builds climate resilience through reduction of risk of exposure
to a single source like hydropower, thereby building adaptive capacity.
Improving the efficiency of end-use technologies (specifically traditional
stoves) not only reduces GHG emissions but also, coupled with reduction in
deforestation and forest degradation, results in sufficiency and sustainability

of biomass resources for future energy use. The implementation of mitigation
measures in the transport, industrial and buildings sectors –utilization of
modern and energy efficient technologies, fuel switch to renewable-based
electricity and sustainably exploited bio-energy substitutes, etc – lessen the
dependence of these sectors on expensive and imported fuels, improves
the countries trade balance. These results in effect contribute to the climate
resilience of the national economy as a whole. Therefore implementation of
the CRGE strategy as a whole would strength the economic capacity of the
country to adapt to the impacts of global and local climate changes (CRGE,
2011) (draft CR Strategy).
Costs of adaptation and mitigation

Historically, Ethiopia’s climate has already experienced increases in
temperatures of about 1°C in the last 25 years, and as well as high intra and
inter annual rainfall variability. All climate models predict further increases in
temperatures and continued intra and inter annual rainfall variability, with an
increased frequency of extreme hazards. However, there is great uncertainty
as to whether the climate will become drier or wetter in Ethiopia. It is critical
for the MoWIE to build a risk management approach in its future plans to be
able to address this uncertainty.
According to the draft CR strategy for the water and energy, Ethiopia’s water
and energy sectors face an overall risk of 150 MUSD annually with the current
climate and up to 675 MUSD annually in the driest future climate scenario
from reduced power generation and irrigation. In addition, up to 70m people
could be left vulnerable from lack of water or fuel access if MoWIE’s plans are
not fully rolled out and funded. Overall investment required in adaptation
measures to mitigate climate risk is about 2 billion USD, mainly from existing
programs, budgets that need to be brought forward in time and from
measures to have a positive pay back over less than five years.
In the energy sector, the climate resilience analysis focused on hydropower

generation and woody biomass as they represent the highest future sources
of power generation and fuel consumption respectively, while being highly
vulnerable to current and future climate. In hydropower, the estimated
average value at risk under current climate is 150 MW annually but could
go up to 382 MW annually (1% and 4%% of effective hydropower generation

capacity respectively) under the driest climate scenario, due to increased risk
of extremely dry years. For example, the driest scenario has a once in every
20 year occurrence of a 2,500MW power generation loss. However, under
the wettest scenarios, the MoWIE would also generate a surplus of non-firm
power during the rainy season. To address this uncertainty, the MoWIE could
in a first phase:
• Focus on energy efficiency policy measures, which would be sufficient

to address the average climate risk under the driest outcomes, and
• Consider fast tracking on its planned geothermal investments, which
is the second most cost efficient renewable resource after hydropower
in Ethiopia and the most climate resilient. Expected investment
required to rollout these measures is 810mUSD on levelised cost of
energy calculations, but energy efficiency measures all have positive
payback. In a second phase, once the direction of rainfall is confirmed,
the MoWE can assess whether it is required to mitigate towards wind
capacity.
In terms of biomass, up to 12 million people are currently at risk of losing
access to woody biomass fuel, 80% of which is used for cooking. The MoWIE
has set ambitious plans to rollout 34 million efficient cook stoves throughout
the country, which has a number of objectives (e.g., reduce household fire
risks) and would allow to reduce all fuel access risks even under high climate
change risks. The cook stove plan already focuses on the most cost effective
cook stoves, but 245m USD funding is still required to finance the overall plan
(including implementation capabilities and contribution from households)
and ensure fuel consumption remains sustainable.

Table 4.2: Strategic Priorities of Climate Resilience Strategy for Water and Energy
Source: MoWIE, draft document on Climate Resilience Strategy for Water and
Energy
The Climate Resilience Strategy for Water and Energy sets out high level
Strategic Priorities
• The strategic priorities will initially require at least $895m up to 2030.

Further analysis is needed to identify the best way of implementing
these priorities and for detailed costing and credible implementation
plans.
• The existing activities have already contributed to the Strategic
Priorities and require only building on these, integrated with the GTP
planning.
• Once developed, implementation plans will be financed through
several methods:
o CRGE Facility – fast-track funding (2 years) and longer-term.
o Other sources – domestic treasury, own revenue and external
assistance.
• Implementation is not just about money; there are delivery bottlenecks
that also need to be addressed.
• MoWIE Ministers will review overall progress quarterly, supported by 4
working groups that will use existing mechanisms as far as possible.

Table 4.3: Investment required to mitigate 2290 MW
Energy
Table 4.4: Additional funding required for the cook stove plan
Energy

Developing the necessary power capacity from renewable energy will be
an enormous challenge as the pace of growth required is high. The total
investment in expanding electric power generation capacity could be funded
via a combination of tariff adjustments and the attraction of private capital,
climate finance and sovereign wealth funds (CRGE, 2011).
Barriers and opportunities

Constraints
Ethiopia’s vulnerability mainly comes from its low level of socio-economic
development, inadequate infrastructure, lack of institutional capacity and
a higher dependency on natural resources (NAPA, 2007). These are also
manifested in Ethiopia’s energy sector development. Some of these barriers
to adapt adverse impacts of climate in energy sector are:
1. Resource constraints/barriers: These barriers mainly relate to fi-
nancial, human and institutional capabilities of the country.
2. Financial barriers: Capital shortages and high capital costs for envi-
ronmentally friendly modern renewable energy technology is one
of barriers for climate change mitigation and adaptation. Lack of
information about the availability of renewable technologies and
technology suppliers is frequently observed as barrier in rural Ethi-
opia. The household income of majority of the rural community is
at low level. Thus, the affordability of the too expensive renewable
energy technologies is a critical obstacle or barrier of mitigation and
adaptation.
3. Limitation of human capacity as barrier: Limitation of qualified
human resources to avail information or survey results on adverse
impacts of climate change on energy resources, energy production
and distribution, quality data on impacts of climate change on eco-
logical, social and economic development of the country, limitation
of awareness on real consequences of climate changes which hin-
der energy technology transfer are considered as capacity barriers.
4. Institutional barriers: These barriers include lack of strong coordi-
nation mechanism both at the federal and regional levels on climate
change and it consequences, lack of elaborated links of federal and
regional sector offices with defined responsibilities on environment
issues, lack of capacity, i.e., absence of well-developed institutions
for research and development (R& D) on climate change adaptation

and institutionally organized information exchange or information
distribution among different sectors and communities, etc.
5. Technical barriers: From a global perspective, the large number of
different technologies that are available to mitigate climate change
facilitates the achievement of prescribed climate protection goals
(IPCC 2013)23. From Ethiopian perspective, dissemination of mod-
ern renewable energy technologies have beneficial role in both mit-
igation and adaptation of climate changes. But the penetration of
such globally available technologies is at an infant stage. Unavail-
ability of these technologies in local market, limitation of developed
and adapted technologies that fit with local conditions and lack of
technical capacity on these technologies are main technical barriers
to implement mitigation and adaptation activities.
6. Low level of private sector participation in energy as barrier: The
private participation in energy development in Ethiopia is at an
infant stage. Lack of power purchase agreement for independent
power producers and some regulatory gaps hinder their participa-
tion and thus the scale of availability of renewable energy technol-
ogies in the local market.
Local and global opportunities

By developing a green economy, one can exchange GHG emissions abatement
for climate finance to fund some of the required investment. Implementing
the initiatives would also offer important co-benefits. For example, it would
improve public health, through better air and water quality and would
promote rural economic development by increasing soil fertility and food
security. This is even more relevant for Ethiopia because many of the climate
initiatives identified have low or even negative costs, leading not only to
GHG emission reductions, but also to the realization of new for economic
growth opportunities. Although these initiatives come at higher costs than
the traditional development pathway, they might offer the possibility to fully
fund the incremental costs via a monetisation of the emission reduction
through climate – related finance. In a global comparison, many of Ethiopia’s
initiatives are comparatively inexpensive – which can be crucial in giving the
country a competitive advantage in attracting climate finance (CRGE, 2011).
23 Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change: working group III-mitigation of climate

change in energy system chapter 7, 2013

Ethiopia is also beginning to export electricity generated from renewable
energy to countries in the region (up to 28 TWh). This will substitute for their
conventional electric power generation and hence decrease GHG emissions
by nearly 20 Mt CO2e (which could come on top of the total 250 Mt CO2e
savings identified in other sectors in Ethiopia), thereby creating opportunities
of GHG reductions not only in Ethiopia but also around the region in Africa
(CRGE, 2011).
Figure 4.1: Economic potential of GHG abatement initiatives (CRGE, 2011)
The country has already set up a CRGE financing facility and the first group
of mitigation and adaptation projects approved for funding. The purpose of
this facility is to streamline the evaluation, selection and financing of CRGE
compliant programs and projects and also to facilitate for the country to
benefit from increasing the number of international climate related funds.
The facility will also be an instrument for aligning the national development
plans (current and future Growth and Transformation Plans) and budgetary
cycle to the requirements of a Climate-Resilient Green Economy. It will also
serve as a platform for coordination among various sectors as climate change
is an economy-wide phenomenon.
Although there are different barriers (financial, market, technically skilled

human resources etc.) in renewable energy development that are challenging
the country, globally renewable energy technologies are technically mature,
which creates a good opportunity to deploy them at significant scale avoiding
the barriers.

11.Conclusions and Recommendations
Conclusions
Ethiopia has made significant progress in recent years in expanding energy
access and developing the country’s huge exploitable potential of renewable
energy resources mainly hydropower, wind, solar and geothermal. These
energy diversifications improve rural development through income
generation, job creation, as climate change mitigation and as adaptation
priority measures to develop climate resilient communities. To protect the
country from the adverse effects of climate change and to build a green
economy that will help realize its ambition of reaching middle income status
before 2025, the government of Ethiopia has therefore initiated the Climate-
Resilient Green Economy (CRGE) initiative, which follows a sectoral approach.
The green economy plan is based on four pillars of which energy is one of
them.
The CRGE has two components: a Green Economy Strategy and a Climate
Resilient Strategy. The latter includes a SRM (Sector Reduction Mechanism)
and action plan, which is under the final stage of preparation for the energy
and water sectors. In the energy sector, the strategic priorities: i) power
generation - diversify the energy mix and improve energy efficiency and ii)
Energy Access - improve efficiency of biomass use and accelerate non-grid
energy access, have been identified as response measures. While in building
the green economy the two priority initiatives, i.e. scaling up of renewable
energy generation for domestic and regional markets and rural energy access
and improved efficient stoves programs and similar projects (including
sustainable energy for all, energy+ partnership initiative that aims to increase
rural access and decrease GHG emissions, which is based on payment by
results approach) have been under implementation.
From the reviewed documents and analysis made, the energy sector of
Ethiopia is highly vulnerable to climate change, because naturally, the main
sources of energy (hydropower and biomass) are influenced by climate
change induced factors such as temperature increase, variable rainfall,
extreme floods and extended droughts. To reduce the vulnerability of the
sector to climate change urgent interventions are needed to increase the
adaptive capacity of the sector, following three options, namely i) energy
diversification by developing renewable energy ii) dissemination of efficient
energy technologies and avoiding obsolete energy technologies; and iii)
building the capacity of both community and developers. In general, the
identified losses due to climate change are significant, ranging from around
1% reduction in GDP to over 10% by 2030.
Ethiopia faces significant challenges of inadequate technology, finance,

human and institutional capacity resources to realize mitigation and
adaptation measures that are indicated in its relevant policies and strategies.
Nevertheless, Ethiopia can count on significant technical and financial
assistance if it undertakes this effort – among others, from funders who are
already supporting energy projects in the country. The potential benefits
are huge: greatly improved quality of life and new economic opportunities
in rural areas, a large infusion of new investment, new sources of revenue,
and a chance to not only achieve the Millennium Development Goals and/or
GTP but then again become a model for the new “green economy” in Africa.
By aspiring to – and achieving – a constructive contribution to the green
economy, it is possible to lay the longer-term foundation for reaching middle-
income status by or before 2025. Therefore, the planned initiatives and fast-
track projects already under implementation need to be strengthened and
additional financial sources should be looked for.
Recommendations
Despite progress made in formulating Climate Resilient Green Economy
(CRGE), National Adaptation Program of Action (NAPA), Nationally
Appropriate Mitigation Actions (NAMA), etc., the magnitude of the potential
challenge posed by climate change and extreme weather requires additional
efforts. Ethiopia’s energy production and consumption is based on biomass
and hydropower which are vulnerable to climate change. To enhance GHG
mitigation and adaptive capacity of the sector, thus allowing it to continue to
play a significant part in the economic and social development of the country,
the following recommendations are given:
1. Implementing currently identified measures, as well as programs

and projects considered in the GTP1, that help build mitigation and
adaptation potential for the country.

2. Energy diversification: utilizing varieties of indigenous energy re-
sources to increase the capability to switch from one form of energy
to another during severe climate change, thereby building resilience.
3. Developing renewable energy - give more attention to renewable
energy resources that are less vulnerable to climate changes, as well
as scaling-up the role out and localization of technologies that play
significant roles in helping the country mitigate and adapt to climate
change.
4. Dissemination of efficient energy technologies, that help to reduce
energy demand and therefore increase the adaptive capacity of
communities by reducing pressure on forest resources,
5. Improve maintenance of existing assets, many of which were de-
signed and constructed several decades ago. Check that the sizing of
existing assets is robust to climate variability and projected changes
in average climatic conditions and explore whether water storage
could be increased at reasonable cost to help manage seasonal and
annual variations.
6. Ensure new assets are resilient. For new assets at the design stage,
review the robustness of design and site locations to climatic vari-
ability and projected climate change including design of energy-gen-
eration assets as well as associated infrastructure,
7. Strengthen measures to control illegal forest logging that, among
other things, contributes to soil erosion and siltation of reservoirs.
8. Investigate applicability of weather coverage and insurance instru-
ments for energy sector risk management.
9. Recognizing the risks associated with climate change is a valuable
first step towards better planning of new investments in infrastruc-
ture and averting potential damage to existing infrastructures. Inte-
gration of climate risk considerations in design, sitting, and operation
of energy facilities, through measures such as standards and codes,
and the review process for replacing or repairing damaged infra-
structure are often the cheapest and easiest measures.
10. Building the capacity to mobilize local financial resources from both

public and private sources, as well as leveraging climate finance and
other form of funds available. Exploring new financing options to im-
prove investments in household level renewable energy technolo-
gies in addition to existing options that are used by government for
mega projects will help solve the financial constraints. Experiences
in mobilizing local financing for the conventional energy sector could
be used for the household level renewable energy technologies. The
mechanisms should take into account the local context with respect
to sources and patterns of income, attitudes to borrowing, availabil-
ity of micro-credit agencies, and ability to repay over long and short
term periods.
11. Build the capacity of both local communities and developers on re-
newable technologies and climate matters.
12. Build strategic partnerships with countries, companies and private
sectors in promoting renewable energy technologies particularly in
the rural part of the country,
13. Develop inter-sectoral networking: working with other sectors with
which energy shares a strong linkage (water, agriculture, etc) to co-
ordinate and optimize response measures.
14. All levels of government, communities, nonprofit organizations and
the private sector must prepare for more extreme weather events,
droughts, and altered ecological systems. Dedicated body/task force
at the national level that quickly responds to disasters associated
with the extreme weather needs to be established. The taskforce
will respond and take emergency action at the time of high damage
on energy infrastructure.
15. Overall strengthening of the national institutional and human capac-
ity at all levels to better identify, implement and follow-up measures
for building a climate resilient and green economy.

12. Gaps in Knowledge and Data
This review report relied extensively on a limited number of studies,
strategies and other documents. This was primarily due to lack of literature
on the impacts of climate change on the energy sector in Ethiopia. On the
other hand, vulnerability of the energy infrastructure and energy resources
is not the same in all regions of Ethiopia. Dramatic physiographic variability
leads to climate variability in the country. Decisions about climate change
on the other hand are complex, costly and have long-term implications. It is
therefore vital that such decisions are based on the best available evidence.
Thus the following is highly recommended:
1. Data gathering on the varied and especially renewable energy re-

source potential of the country needs to be undertaken to have a
more reliable assessment of the various energy resources, which
helps reduce the significant variations and uncertainties in existing
resource potential estimates. This gives a better foundation to plan
and optimize the future energy supply vis-s-vis energy demand and
climate change.
2. Climate information database helps to bridge information gap.
Based on the available information better characterization at the
regional and local levels of climate change trends relevant to the
energy sector, including water availability, wind resources, solar and
cloud cover, and likelihood and magnitude of droughts and floods
plays an important role in risk management. Near-term and lon-
ger-term projections will help for proper planning. Therefore, digital
databases on historic and observed climatological and hydrological
conditions need to be compiled and freely accessed. Monitoring
sites equipped with automatic devices able to record and transmit
in real time the key weather variables (rainfall, runoff, temperature,
sunshine hours, wind speed, reservoir head, evaporation, turbidity,
etc) is important. Better meteorological data gathering that assists
more robust modeling, which in turn gives more reliable predic-
tions on the national and local level climatology and hydrology in
the country, is a prerequisite to better assess the impact of climate
change and future situation of hydropower potential in the country.

3. Continued and multifaceted research by academic and research
institutions into the relationships between climate change and
the energy supply and demand situation, further research on cli-
mate change impacts using downscaled climate change scenarios,
researching the impacts of changes in seasonal conditions and ex-
treme climatic events should be given a high priority as Ethiopia
experiences economic and population growth, since it will help to
continuously fine tune policies and strategies to better handle any
eventualities associated with climate change and its consequent im-
pacts on the energy sector in Ethiopia.

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Water-and-Energy Ethiopia 2015

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ETHIOPIAN PANEL ON CLIMATE CHANGE

FIRST ASSESSMENT REPORT

WORKING GROUP II- CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACT,

ETHIOPIAN ACADEMY OF SCIENCES

Lead Author: Woldeamlak Bewket (Prof.)

Lead Author: Abebayehu Assefa (Dr.-Ing)

© 2015 Ethiopian Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved

Citation- This document may be cited as follows:

Ethiopian panel on Climate Change (2015), First Assessment Report, - Working

About the Ethiopian Academy of Sciences

The book was produced through exemplary collaboration between lead

Masresha Fetene (Prof.)

Energy Sector 133

Executive Summary 135

Compared to many countries of sub-Saharan Africa, Ethiopia is endowed with

A major challenge to water resources management in Ethiopia is the large

The low level of development of water infrastructure exacerbates the

2 | WATER AND ENERGY

Ethiopia is currently implementing a Climate Resilient Green Economy (CRGE)

In addition to financing, it is also important to note that there many factors,

WATER AND ENERGY | 3

Different basins and sub-basins respond differently to the same changes

Particularly in developing countries like Ethiopia where livelihood of over

The manifestation of climate change impact on water resources can be felt

Ethiopia, like other sub-Saharan African countries, is vulnerable to the impacts

6 | WATER AND ENERGY

In Ethiopia, the importance of water resources for all-round development of

WATER AND ENERGY | 7

Generally, in the midst of increasing urban and environmental demands on

As indicated above, Ethiopia is making remarkable progress in the

8 | WATER AND ENERGY

Generally, the country is characterized by highly diverse topography, with

As summarized by Ayenew et al. (2008) and MoWIE (2014), Ethiopia has

WATER AND ENERGY | 9

Climatologically, the south and southwest region exhibits tropical climate

2.2. Rainfall in Ethiopia

10 | WATER AND ENERGY

• The southwestern and western areas of the country are charac-

• The central, eastern, and northeastern areas of the country expe-

• The southern and southeastern areas of the country are dominat-

WATER AND ENERGY | 11

Figure 2 Typical rainfall distribution pattern

Rainfall distribution is extremely variable both in space and time. This

2.3. Water Resources Potential

12 | WATER AND ENERGY

Table 1 Hydro-meteorological characteristics of the major river basins

Basin Basin Area Temperature Rainfall(mm) Aver-

7 Omo-Gibe 79,000 17 29 1900 400 1140 1600 16.6

D Internally closed basins

8 Awash 110,000 20.8 29 1600 160 557 1800 4.9

WATER AND ENERGY | 13

The values of maximum and minimum annual rainfall indicated in Table 1

14 | WATER AND ENERGY

Figure 3 Mean monthly runoff hydrographs of some major rivers

To minimize the economic impacts of water shortages, greater water storage,

WATER AND ENERGY | 15

2.3.2. Lakes and wetlands

16 | WATER AND ENERGY

Key to wetlands:1 –Turkana, 2–Chew Bahir, 3–Chamo, 4–Abaya, 5–Awasa–