Quantifying interest rate risk and the effect

of model assumptions behind sight deposits

Stefan Kerbl, Boris Simunovic, Andreas Wolf1

Refereed by: Pierluigi Bologna, Banca d’Italia
Have Austrian banks taken on higher interest rate risks amid the low interest rate environ-
ment? According to the interest rate risk statistics, which quantify the effect of the regulatory
200-basis-point interest rate shock, interest rate risk as reported by banks has not risen signifi-
cantly since the beginning of the low interest rate period. However, in measuring interest rate
risk, banks need to rely on model assumptions, especially with regard to the repricing dates
they assume for customer deposits. Harnessing this room for maneuver, banks may compensate
for longer fixation periods on the assets side (maturity transformation). In turn, a higher degree
of maturity transformation and interest rate sensitivity might not be fully reflected in the reported
interest rate risk. Analyzing this room for maneuver, we calculate Austrian banks’ interest rate
risk level over time while assuming standardized and conservative repricing dates. Under these
conservative repricing dates, a different picture on interest rate risks emerges especially for
large banks. We conclude that large banks in Austria have seen a marked increase in maturity
transformation over time, which was mirrored by small and medium-sized banks to a lesser
extent. It follows that interest rate risk in the banking book, and its quantification, is now more
relevant for evaluating banks’ business models and capital adequacy than was the case before
the start of the low interest rate phase.

JEL classification: G21, G28, G38, E43

Keywords: interest rate risk, maturity transformation, low interest rate environment, risk quanti-
fication and management, bank capital

Since the European Central Bank (ECB) embarked on its current monetary policy
stance (negative interest rates, sovereign and corporate bond purchases), one question
has come up time and again: what effect does this accommodative stance have on
the profitability of banks in the euro area? Given that this issue is highly relevant for
monetary policy makers and bank supervisors, it has been discussed regularly by
the Oesterreichische Nationalbank (OeNB). Kerbl and Sigmund (2016) examine
the empirical relationship between low interest rates and net interest margins, sim-
ulating the asymmetric effect of negative interest rates on profitability. They show
that the low and negative interest rate environment adversely affects banks’ net in-
terest income (see e.g. also Drescher et al., 2016; Eggertsson et al., 2019; Genay
and Podjasek, 2014; Gros, 2018).
This effect is less evident with large banks, as shown by Kerbl and Sigmund
(2016), and is possibly explained by banks (partly) compensating for this by­
(a) higher credit volumes, (b) higher credit risks or (c) higher interest rate risks.
The positive link between higher interest rate risks and a higher net interest margin
has been corroborated, among others, by Angbazo (1997) and Entrop et al. (2015;
see also the discussion in Bologna, 2018).
1
Oesterreichische Nationalbank, Financial Markets Analysis and Surveillance Division, stefan.kerbl@ oenb.at;
­On-Site Supervision Division – Significant Institutions, boris.simunovic@ oenb.at; Supervisory Statistics, Models
and Credit Quality Assessment Division, andreas.wolf@ oenb.at. Opinions expressed by the authors of studies do not
necessarily reflect the official viewpoint of the Oesterreichische Nationalbank (OeNB) or of the Eurosystem. The
­authors thank Pierluigi Bologna for his comments, which improved the overall readability and precision of the study.

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Quantifying interest rate risk and the effect of model assumptions behind sight deposits

Yet, when the interest rate risk as reported by banks is considered (see also
chart 2), then no increased interest rate risk is observable during the period of
­accommodative monetary policy.
For this reason, OeNB bank examiners, when they started carrying out business
model-related on-site inspections at the end of 2017, focused, inter alia, on interest
rate risk. What they observed was that banks were engaging more and more in
maturity transformation due to its positive effect on net interest income. In other
words, banks were striving to compensate for the contracting net interest margin
by making longer-term investments (i.e. longer interest rate fixation periods),
which, according to the banks, also tied in with the customers’ demands. Never-
theless, the higher degree of maturity transformation was not reflected by an
­increase in the risk reported.2 We assumed that the respective banks continuously
raised the (fictitious) interest rate fixation period of sight deposits and hereby offset
the longer interest rate fixation periods on the assets side. In this study, we con-
firm this hypothesis.
1  Interest rate risk – basic facts
According to classical finance theories (see e.g. Hicks, 1946), maturity transformation
is an integral part of the banking business: in other words, credit institutions extend
long-term finance (by granting long-term loans) and engage in short-term funding
(by taking in short-term or sight deposits). This denotes maturity transformation
from a liquidity perspective.
Another form is maturity transformation from the interest rate perspective.
­Interest rate fixation periods may deviate from liquidity deadlines both on the assets
side (e.g. variable rate loans) and on the liabilities side (e.g. deposits with a floating rate).
A bank’s net interest income depends, inter alia, on the difference between the
risk-free interest rate applicable to assets and liabilities.3 With a “normal” upward
sloping yield curve, the long-term interest rates exceed the short-term interest
rates. Credit institutions earn a structural contribution if the interest rate fixation
period of their lending business is higher than that of their deposit business.
Chart 1 displays the yield curves in the euro area (for AAA-rated sovereigns)
from year-end 2007 to year-end 2018. For readability, we only show the yield
curve for every other year, with the exception of 2017 and 2018. We see that
(1) the yield curve was upward sloping during the whole period (least pronounced
in 2007), and that (2) especially after 2013, yields were substantially compressed
over the entire maturity range. The first observation implies that banks can increase
net interest income by means of maturity transformation, and the second – in
­combination with depressed margins in times of low rates (see the literature section
above) – that banks have a stronger incentive to do so.

2
As explained in section 2, the interest rate risk statistics are part of a bank’s reported “asset, income and risk statement”
under statutory law. At the unconsolidated level, credit institutions submit quarterly reports in line with Annex
A3b of the Regulation on Asset, Income and Risk Statements; at the consolidated level, banking groups pursuant
to Article 59 and Article 59a Austrian Banking Act submit quarterly reports in line with Annex B3b and C3b of
the Regulation on Asset, Income and Risk Statements.
3
Another important driver is the margin contribution, which equals the difference between the credit institution’s
credit spread (margin contribution on the liabilities side) and its customers (margin contribution on the assets side).
The relationships are presented here in a simplified manner.

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 Quantifying interest rate risk and the effect of model assumptions behind sight deposits

Chart 1
There is no reward/return without
risk, which is why this type of maturity Yield curves in the euro area, 2007–2018
transformation carries interest rate Yield in %
risk: if interest rates increase along the 5.5

entire yield curve, the present value of 5.0

2007
long-term positions declines more 4.5
strongly than that of short-term posi- 2009
4.0
tions. The risk of a decline in the present
value of banks’ own funds results from 3.5

the contribution (= return) of maturity 3.0

2011
2013
transformation. 2.5
While no capital charge is applied 2015
2.0
to this risk under Pillar 1 of the Basel 2017
framework, limiting the exposure of 1.5
2018
banks to interest rate risk falls into the 1.0
responsibility of – in this order – the 0.5
banks’ management, the auditors and
the supervisory authority (BCBS, 2016; 0.0

or pursuant to Article 69 para. 3 Austrian –0.5

Banking Act). The supervisory authority –1.0
must take measures if the interest rate 0 5 10 15 20 25
Residual maturity in years
risk calculated using the standardized
approach (i.e. the risk that a bank’s Source: ECB.
present value declines as a result of a
sudden and unexpected change in interest rates) exceeds a particular threshold,
which, according to statutory law, has been set at 20% of the bank’s eligible own
funds. In addition, greater attention has been paid in the past few years to interest
rate risk under Pillar 2.4
In essence, interest rate risk is measured by calculating the value of assets and
liabilities under the assumption of an increase (or decrease) of the interest rate
level, i.e. a parallel shift of the yield curve. The value of financial instruments with
long-term interest rate repricing frequencies (such as fixed rate mortgages) declines
more strongly than that of instruments with short-term interest rate repricing
­frequencies (such as money market loans).
With sight deposits, it is necessary to make assumptions. Interest rate risk is
not just underpinned by objective factors: the above-said would presuppose that
the rate fixation period is clearly determined for all types of a bank’s business, but
this is not true for products whose rates are not contractually fixed. Sight ­deposits
are the most prominent case in point. On the one hand, the interest rates applied
to sight deposits may deviate from money market interest rates, and on the other
hand, customers may withdraw money on a daily basis without prior notice. This
is important not only from a liquidity risk perspective, but also from an interest rate
risk perspective, because should rates rise, banks must substitute deposits with-
drawn by customers with higher market interest rates. For this reason, banks
model rate fixation periods for products and activities without contractual interest

4
See e.g. European Banking Authority (EBA, 2018).

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Quantifying interest rate risk and the effect of model assumptions behind sight deposits

rates (hereinafter referred to as non-maturity deposits5 – NMDs) when they measure

their interest rate risk. In this study, we take a closer look at these modeling
­assumptions.
When modeling the rate fixation periods of NMDs, i.e. behavioral repricing
dates, banks deal with regulatory caps: In 2015, the European Banking Authority
(EBA) stipulated that the assumed behavioral repricing date is to be constrained to
a maximum average of five years.6 In 2018, the EBA released a revised guideline
according to which the five-year cap applies individually for each currency.7
2  Interest rate risk statistics
“Interest rate risk statistics”8 are meant to ensure that the calculation of interest rate
risk in the banking book (IRRBB) using a standardized method is comparable and
traceable across banks and to support the identification of the key bank-specific
­determinants of IRRBB. The 200-basis-point interest rate shift is the central measure
in this respect; it estimates the drop in a bank’s present value of own funds if the
interest rate level increases or decreases by 200 basis points (the maximum reduction
in the present value in both scenarios).
In simple terms, the 200-basis-point shift is calculated as follows: Balance sheet
items on the assets and liabilities sides as well as long and short off-balance-sheet
positions are slotted into different maturity buckets (modified duration buckets)
according to their repricing dates and the currencies in which they are denominated.
Derivative positions are evaluated at delta equivalents and likewise reported. In a
next step, the sign of the net position is determined by a simple difference for each
maturity bucket or duration bucket and currency. This net position is multiplied by
a proxy for the net present value change9 in the event of a (200-basis-point) change
in the maturity-matching interest rate. Thus weighted, net negative and positive
positions are then added together for each currency, and the resulting absolute values
are thereafter summed up across currencies. The outcome of this analysis is inde-
pendent from the calculation method via maturity or modified duration buckets
provided that the positions have been allocated in line with the reporting guidelines.
Classical maturity transformation as applied by banks results in more assets at
the long end (i.e. in the buckets with a long rate fixation period) and more liabilities
at the short end (i.e. in the buckets with a short rate fixation period). This overhang
of the assets side at the long end and the overhang of the liabilities side at the short
end give rise to interest rate risk (IRR): a change in interest rates changes the present
value of own funds. In the quantification of IRR, the size and the structure of the
overhang are key.
With respect to NMDs, credit institutions have to model the repricing dates.
Such model estimates are aimed at predicting the outflow of NMDs in the event of
a 200-basis-point interest rate shock and under the assumption that the bank keeps

5
Apart from sight deposits, some employee pension claims fall into this category, but size-wise, such claims are
­underrepresented in our case.
6
EBA (2015), para. 24(d).
7
EBA (2018), para. 115(o).
8
In the following, we do not consider trading book positions as capital charges apply to trading book interest rate risk.
9
That is, this measure approximates the present value change of the position in the event of a +/–200-basis-point parallel­
shift of the yield curve. For the requirements for calculating more complex interest rate scenarios, see BCBS (2016).

76  OESTERREICHISCHE NATIONALBANK
 Quantifying interest rate risk and the effect of model assumptions behind sight deposits

the interest rate on these NMDs unchanged. In turn, if the model estimates allocate
NMDs to buckets with long rate fixation periods, this mitigates the long-end asset
overhang that results from loans and bonds with contractually fixed repricing
dates. Unlike, for instance, internal ratings-based (IRB) models, which have to be
approved by the competent authority before they can be used, this modeling
­approach is not subject to such supervisory approval. While the validation of the
assumptions may be challenged during relevant on-site inspections and the Austrian
Financial Market Authority (FMA) or the ECB may impose pertinent requirements
when following up on such inspections, there may be a significant time lag between
the implementation of a new model (and its calibration) and the acknowledgment of
the model by the supervisory authorities.
3 Objective
In this analysis, we aim to identify the extent to which banks took on more interest
rate risk over the past few years, which, ceteris paribus, increased interest income.
To this end, we draw on data reported by 482 (groups of) credit institutions10 and
adjust these data for the effect of model assumptions to compare the interest rate
risk over time and across banks.
The analysis is meant to shed light on the question whether maturity transformation
has been stepped up in the Austrian banking system since the beginning of the low
interest rate period. In addition, by employing the method introduced in the next
section, we also gain insights into the extent to which banks model sight deposits
in order to identify any outliers and model risks.
4 Methodology
To reach the desired level of comparability, it is first of all necessary to neutralize
the impact of the heterogeneous model assumptions behind sight deposits. Please
note that modeling heterogeneity does not necessarily have to be an indicator of
misquantification, since the economic interest rate sensitivity of sight deposits indeed
varies depending on the respective bank’s business model. An in-depth assessment
may only be carried out by way of an on-site inspection.
This notwithstanding, reporting data may be used to perform plausibility
checks on a bank’s model assumptions, especially for the purpose of peer group
comparisons. The bolder the model assumptions are, the higher is the model risk
of the respective bank. Model risk exists even in cases where the model assumptions
are justified and have been validated accordingly. Reliable validation coupled with
conservative model assumptions help reduce the resulting model risk11.
To ensure a level playing field for banks regarding these model assumptions,
we, for one thing, compute the IRR for all banks in the sample, using data reported
in the interest rate risk statistics. For another thing, we edit the data reported by
banks as follows: in line with their contractual maturity, we allocate NMDs to the
time bucket with the lowest rate fixation period (i.e. less than one month). This
represents the most conservative approach and the assumption of the shortest possible

10
To be precise, these data comprise all fully operating credit institutions at the highest level (i.e. consolidated in
the case of groups) as at end-2017.
11
For the provisions on how to consider these model risks, see EBA (2018) para.108(h,i).

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Quantifying interest rate risk and the effect of model assumptions behind sight deposits

fictitious rate fixation period.12 To keep it simple, we call the thus calculated change
in present value given an assumed interest rate change of 200 basis points under
level playing field assumptions “interest rate risk under level playing field assump-
tions” or IRR-LPF, to refer to the time series of the changes in the present value
calculated in this way.
In a second step, we compare the IRR-LPF with the reported IRR over time to
identify any trends. A rising IRR-LPF time series is indicative of a bank’s increased
maturity transformation. If the IRR-LPF time series rises more strongly than the
reported IRR, the bank is likely to progressively model NMDs.
Finally, we sort and rank the results. We deem those credit institutions “model
dependent” whose interest rate risk exceeds 20% of their own funds according to
the IRR-LPF, i.e. banks that do not exceed the regulatory limit only thanks to
model assumptions behind NMDs. In addition, we identify those institutions
whose model assumptions on the fictitious maturity of sight deposits are more
­aggressive (longer duration) than the respective assumptions of the peer group.
5  Outcome for bank aggregates
Chart 2 shows the interest rate risk reported by Austrian banks. It is evident from this
chart that while small banks13 systematically increased their interest rate risk, neither
medium-sized banks nor large banks increased their interest rate risk as reported
in the interest rate risk statistics during the indicated period. For the r­ emainder of
this study, note that whenever we refer to bank aggregates (small, medium-sized
and large banks), we refer to an average bank representative of the given sample and
do not mean every individual bank classified as small, medium-sized or large.
Chart 2

Volume-weighted average of the reported IRR of three bank aggregates

Impact of 200-basis-point shift in % of own funds
8

1 Sep. 06 Sep. 08

0
Sep. 05 Sep. 06 Sep. 07 Sep. 08 Sep. 09 Sep. 10 Sep. 11 Sep. 12 Sep. 13 Sep. 14 Sep. 15 Sep. 16 Sep. 17 Sep. 18
Large banks Medium-sized banks Small banks
Source: Supervisory statistics, authors’ calculations.

12
In fact, this corresponds to the most conservative assumption under a +200-basis-point shift of the yield curve.
13
Small banks: total assets < EUR 1 billion; medium-sized banks: total assets < EUR 20 billion; large banks: total
assets ≥ EUR 20 billion. “Large banks” include all systemically important institutions according to Article 23c
Austrian Banking Act. For a further description of the data, see the subsequent sections.

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 Quantifying interest rate risk and the effect of model assumptions behind sight deposits

In the event of a +200-basis-point shift of the yield curve and based on the data
reported by banks, the present value of large Austrian banks’ own funds declines
by less than 2% as of September 2018.
Chart 3 compares the reported IRR with the computed IRR-LPF. Especially
large banks (total assets ≥ EUR 20 billion) show a notable rise in the IRR-LPF, i.e.
the interest rate risk under an assumed short rate fixation period for NMDs. This
strong increase in large banks’ exposure to interest rate risk has an impact on the
average of the entire banking sector given large banks’ weight. For medium-sized
banks, only a moderate increase is observed. In parallel to their IRR, small banks’
IRR-LPF went up in recent years.

Chart 3

Volume-weighted averages of the reported IRR and the IRR-LPF of four bank aggregates
All banks Large banks
Impact of 200-basis-point shift in % of own funds Impact of 200-basis-point shift in % of own funds
20.0 20.0

17.5 17.5

15.0 15.0

12.0 12.5

10.0 10.0

7.5 7.5

5.0 5.0

2.5 2.5

0.0 0.0
Sep. 06 Sep. 08 Sep. 10 Sep. 12 Sep. 14 Sep. 16 Sep. 18 Sep. 08 Sep. 10 Sep. 12 Sep. 14 Sep. 16 Sep. 18

Medium-sized banks Small banks

Impact of 200-basis-point shift in % of own funds Impact of 200-basis-point shift in % of own funds
10 12.0

9 10.5

8 9.0

7 7.5

6 6.0

5 4.5

4 3.0

3 1.5

2 0.0

1 –1.5

0 –3.0
Sep. 06 Sep. 08 Sep. 10 Sep. 12 Sep. 14 Sep. 16 Sep. 18 Sep. 06 Sep. 08 Sep. 10 Sep. 12 Sep. 14 Sep. 16 Sep. 18
Interest rate risk – level playing field (IRR-LPF) Interest rate risk – reported (IRR)
Source: Supervisory statistics, authors’ calculations.
Note: For large banks, the x-axis dates back to 2008 only in order to keep changes in the composition of the respective bank aggregates over time to a minimum. Please note that the
y-axis features different percentages in all four panels.

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Quantifying interest rate risk and the effect of model assumptions behind sight deposits

In contrast to small banks, large banks’ increased exposure to interest rate risk
is not reflected in the reported 200-basis-point shift (IRR, dark red line in chart 3)
but becomes evident only once the model assumptions, which change over time,
are neutralized (IRR-LPF). It is noteworthy that, compared with small banks,
large banks develop models considering interest rate fixation periods much more
frequently.
IRR reported by large banks invariably amounted to less than 5% of own funds;
in contrast, interest rate risk adjusted for model assumptions behind sight deposits
(IRR-LPF) came to around 19.8% of own funds. Under level playing field assumptions,
large banks’ exposure to interest rate risk is considerably higher than the reported
interest rate risk. One presumption is that large banks use the room for maneuver
they have in considering NMDs in interest rate risk calculations to keep the IRR to
be reported relatively low.
For better comparability across the banking aggregates, chart 4 shows the IRR-
LPF adjusted for assumptions behind sight deposits.
The rise in large banks’ interest rate risk coincides with the beginning of the
low interest rate period; it is also a manifestation of large Austrian banks’
stepped-up recourse to maturity transformation to fight off interest income erosion.
In a similar vein, albeit from a low starting level, medium-sized and small banks
also show a marked increase in interest rate risk since the beginning of the low
interest rate period, which reflects their attempt to maintain the net interest margin
by taking on more interest rate risk. Medium-sized banks started earlier to take on
interest rate risk and display a stronger reliance on model assumptions than large
banks but a larger model reliance than small banks, as reflected by the respective
differences in IRR and IRR-LPF in chart 3. Compared to small banks, medium-sized
banks have not extended their maturity transformation as monotonically as small
banks and not as drastically as large banks but still show a marked increase in the
IRR-LPF from 5% in 2011 to 9% toward the end of 2018.
In the following, we take a closer look at a case study that illustrates the magnitude
of this phenomenon. Before we do so, however, we mention one caveat: some
Chart 4

Volume-weighted averages of the IRR-LPF of three bank aggregates

Impact of 200-basis-point shift in % of own funds
20.0

17.5

15.0

12.5

10.0

7.5

5.0

2.5

0.0
Sep. 06 Sep. 08 Sep. 10 Sep. 12 Sep. 14 Sep. 16 Sep. 18
Large banks Medium-sized banks Small banks
Source: Supervisory statistics, authors’ calculations.

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 Quantifying interest rate risk and the effect of model assumptions behind sight deposits

banks provide behavioral economic reasons for their model assumptions in the risk
management talks with bank supervisors. For instance, banks pointed out that,
amid the prevailing low interest rates, depositors hardly pay any attention to the
interest rate on their instruments. This is why not changing the interest rate on
deposits in tandem with the market would hardly have an impact on the deposit
volume. Moreover, banks allegedly dispose of data (but only for individual countries
in Central, Eastern and Southeastern Europe) that corroborate this hypothesis. It
remains to be seen, however, whether this reasoning still applies to a deposit market
that, driven by technological advances, is becoming ever more efficient.
6  Case study of a bank
For a case study, we chose an example bank in order to illustrate that implications
for financial stability would arise if several banks hypothetically followed an aggressive
interest rate risk strategy. These insights allow us to recommend specific general
policy action for safeguarding financial stability, which we present in the final section.
The example bank markedly increased its interest rate risk under level playing
field assumptions in 2014 (when the zero interest rate period began), while at the
same time reducing the interest rate risk reported in supervisory statistics. This
difference may be traceable to two factors: (1) a fictitious rate fixation period for
deposits in model assumptions which changes over time and (2) a rise in the deposit
volume (quantity effect).
The first effect, the change in the assumptions about the interest rate sensitivity
of sight deposits, is illustrated in chart 5. The chart shows the model assumptions
this bank applies to sight deposits as compared with the volume-weighted average
of all banks. At the beginning of 2018, the rate fixation period for sight deposits
was assumed to be more than 30 months by the example bank in its model assump-
tions. The longer this assumed rate fixation period is, the greater is the deviation
of the r­ eported IRR from the IRR-LPF. The analogous average across all banks,
and also of large banks, amounted to only about half that time. As to the example
bank’s assumptions, it is evident, on the one hand, that they were changed and, on
the other, that they reached elevated values (> 2.5 years) as early as in 2013.

Chart 5

Comparison of the example bank’s model assumptions behind sight deposits

with all banks
Exposure-weighted number of months
35

30

25

20

15

10

5
Sep. 08 Sep. 10 Sep. 12 Sep. 14 Sep. 16 Sep. 18
Example bank All banks
Source: Supervisory statistics, authors‘ calculations.

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Quantifying interest rate risk and the effect of model assumptions behind sight deposits

Chart 6
The computations underlying the
Factors determining the difference second effect, the volume increase over
between the IRR-LPF and the reported time, are shown in chart 6. In the third
IRR, as of 2018Q3 quarter of 2018, the difference b­ etween
Impact of 200-basis-point shift in % of own funds
the IRR-LPF and the reported IRR
40
+11% +37%
3 4
amounts to about 37% of own funds.
This difference may be broken down as
30
follows: the difference between the LPF
+12% 2
model assumptions and the model as-
20
sumptions used by the example bank
+14% 1
for sight deposits at year-end 2011 ac-
10 counts for some 14 percentage points
(initial modeling effect). The effect of
0 changes to the model assumptions for
Source: Supervisory statistics, authors’ calculations. sight deposits between the fourth quar-
1
Difference between LPF and modeling sight deposits at year-end 2011.
2
Effect of changes to model assumptions between 2011Q4 and 2018Q3.
ter of 2011 and the third quarter of 2018
3
Increase in deposits since 2011Q4. equals some 12 percentage points
4
Total effect.
(time-changing model assumptions).
The increase in deposits recorded since
the fourth quarter of 2011 accounts for some 11 percentage points (quantity effect).
In addition to the calculated IRR-LPF and the reported IRR, chart 7 depicts
the interest rate risk had the bank under review not adjusted the distribution of
sight deposits over maturity buckets as of year-end 2011 (blue line). The difference
­between the latter and the reported IRR demonstrates that the bank lowered its
­reported interest rate risk by around 12% of own funds between the final quarter of
2011 and the third quarter of 2018 by changing the distribution across maturity
buckets (time-changing model assumptions).
If the bank had not adjusted the distribution of sight deposits across maturity
buckets as of year-end 2011, it would be exposed to interest rate risk of 14% instead
of 2% of own funds at the end of the third quarter 2018.

Chart 7

IRR-LPF, reported IRR and constant distribution of sight deposits across

maturity buckets
Impact of 200-basis-point shift in % of own funds
40

30

20

10

–10

–20
Sep. 08 Sep. 10 Sep. 12 Sep. 14 Sep. 16 Sep. 18
Distribution over maturity buckets constant as of year-end 2011 Interest rate risk – level playing field (IRR-LPF)
Interest rate risk – reported (IRR)

Source: Supervisory statistics, authors’ calculations.

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 Quantifying interest rate risk and the effect of model assumptions behind sight deposits

In the following, we explore whether this increase is ascribable to the bank’s

lending or derivative business (chart 8). As mentioned before, the reported IRR of
the bank amounted to less than 2% of own funds in late 2018, while the IRR-LPF
came to 39% of own funds. The interest rate risk inherent in that bank’s derivative
positions equaled about 30% of own funds. According to the reported data – where
the interest rate sensitivity of on-balance and off-balance-sheet transactions is
­recorded separately –, the higher maturity transformation results not from on-balance-
sheet lending, but from swap (i.e. ­derivative) positions.
While it is not relevant from the interest rate risk perspective whether the
higher risk arises from the lending or from the swap business, it makes a difference
from the liquidity risk perspective: swaps are subject to daily margin requirements.
In a hypothetical case, increasing interest rates would trigger liquidity outflows.
For example, at an interest rate sensitivity of the swap book of about 30% of own
funds, such outflows could reach sizable dimensions. Under such scenarios, a
bank’s liquidity needs manifest themselves independent from the treatment in the
balance sheet and in the interest rate risk statistics.
Chart 8

Reported IRR and IRR-LPF of the example bank and IRR of the
derivative positions
Impact of 200-basis-point shift in % of own funds
40

35

30

25

20

15

10

–5

–10

–20
Sep. 08 Sep. 10 Sep. 12 Sep. 14 Sep. 16 Sep. 18
Interest rate risk – derivatives only Interest rate risk – level playing field (IRR-LPF)
Interest rate risk – reported (IRR)

Source: Supervisory statistics, authors’ calculations.

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Quantifying interest rate risk and the effect of model assumptions behind sight deposits

7 Summary
In this study, we show that Austrian banks in aggregate increased their interest
rate risk amid the low interest rate environment. The extent of such an increase
becomes evident when the interest rate risk reported by banks is harmonized over
time and across banks under conservative model assumptions for sight deposits
which we introduced to ensure a level playing field.
From our analysis, we draw the following policy recommendations. First, it is
important for supervisors to be aware of the general issue, namely that interest rate
risk might be hidden under model assumptions on sight deposits. Financial stability
experts should be knowledgeable about the general trend in interest rate risk and
banking supervisors need to question banks’ modeling assumptions and apply a
harmonized approach in the supervisory review and evaluation process under Pillar 2.
Second, we could imagine that, in comparison with other euro area banks,
Austrian banks are, generally speaking, not the only ones practicing interest rate
risk modeling. Hence, we argue that, from a financial stability perspective, it might
be worth taking a closer look at euro area banks’ modeling choices for capturing
depositor behavior. Third, we encourage further research to examine how much
banks benefit from taking on more interest rate risk.

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