SMK Methodist (Acs) Ipoh STPM 2014 Trial Examination: Mathematics T Paper 3

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MATHEMATICS T 1 954/3

MATHEMATICS T
PAPER 3
(One hour 30 minutes)
SMK METHODIST (ACS) IPOH
STPM 2014 TRIAL EXAMINATION
Instructions to candidates:
Answer all questions in Section A and any one question in Section B. Answers are to be written in
English.
All necessary working should be shown clearly.
Scientific calculators may be used. Programmable and graphic display calculators are prohibited.
A list of mathematical formulae and statistical tables are provided.

Section A [45 marks]


Answer all questions in this section
1. At the end of a football league season, the numbers of goals scored by 26 teams in the local league were as
follows.
22 23 23 23 24 24 25 26 27 28 28 29 30
31 33 33 34 34 35 35 36 36 37 46 49 49

a) Calculate the mean and variance of these data. [3 marks]


b) Find the median and interquartile range. [4 marks]
c) Draw a boxplot to represent the data. [3 marks]

2. There are 20 teachers and 15 lecturers attending a conference. The number of women teachers and that of
women lecturers are 12 and 5 respectively. Four participants from this group are selected randomly to lead
some sessions of outdoor activities.
a) Find the probability that three teachers are selected. [2 marks]
b) Given that two women are selected, find the probability that both of them are teachers.
[2 marks]
3 A continuous random variable, X, has probability density function

{
1
f ( x )= 72
( 8 x−x 2 ) 2≤ x ≤ 8 ,
0 otherwise
a) Find F(x), the cumulative distribution function of X. [3 marks]
b) Sketch F(x). [2 marks]
c) The median of X is m. Verify that m ≈ 4.42. [3 marks]

4. A survey conducted in a school found that 136 out of 400 students like Mathematics.
a) Find the unbiased estimates of the proportion of students who like Mathematics in the school. Explain
why an interval estimate is more informative than a point estimate. [2 marks]
b) A random sample of n students is chosen from the school. If the 95% symmetric confidence interval
for the proportion of students who like Mathematics in the school is (0.445, 0.235), find the value of n.
[5
marks]
5. Over a long period of time, 20% of all vases made by a particular factory are imperfect and cannot be sold.
Find the probability that fewer than 4 vases from a random sample of 10 made by the factory are imperfect.
[2
marks]
The factory introduces a new machine for producing vases. To test whether there has been an improvement,
each of a random sample of 20 vases made by the new machine is examined. From this sample, 2 vases are
found to be imperfect.
Show that this does not provide evidence, at the 5% level of significance, of a reduction in the proportion of
imperfect vases. You should show your hypotheses and calculations clearly. [6 marks]
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MATHEMATICS T 2 954/3

6. The school canteen operator undertakes a survey of the numbers and types of drinks ordered by a random
sample of 400 students in the school. The students are categorized as lower secondary, upper secondary or
sixth former. The drinks are categorized as mineral water or sweetened drinks. A table of the results of the
survey is as follows.
Type of drink
Mineral water Sweetened drinks
Type Lower Secondary 54 63
of Upper Secondary 95 41
student Sixth Former 71 76
Carry out a test at the 5% level of significance to examine whether there is any association between type of
student and type of drink. State carefully your null and alternative hypotheses. [8 marks]

Section B [15 marks]


Answer only one question in this section.
7. A courier company is investigating operations at a cost center where delays often occur. Delays (in minutes)
are modelled by the random variable T with the following cumulative distribution function.

{
0 t≤0
F ( t )= −1
t
3
1−e t >0
a) Find the median delay and the 90th percentile delay. [4 marks]
b) Define the probability density function of T.
Hence use calculus to find the mean delay. [4 marks]
c) Find the probability that a delay lasts longer than the mean delay. [2 marks]
You are given that the variance of T is 9.
d) Let T denote the mean of a random sample of 36 delays. Write down an approximation to the
distribution of T . [2 marks]
e) A random sample of 36 delays is found to have mean 4.2 minutes. By using a significant level of 5%,
does this cast any doubt on the modelling? [3 marks]

8. An enforcement officer from the health department is monitoring the presence of mosquito larvae of a
certain species in a septic pond. He collects a random sample of water specimens from the river, each
containing the same volume, and counts the number of these larvae in each specimen. He believes that the
number of larvae in these specimens may be modelled using a Poisson distribution.
a) Write down the conditions for a Poisson model to apply. [2 marks]
The officer’s results are as follows.
Number of larvae, x 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 ≥8
Observed frequency, f 10 33 48 40 32 17 15 5 0

b) The sample standard deviation is 1.713, correct to 3 decimal places.


(i) Find the sample mean number of larvae. [2 marks]
(ii) Do these statistics give you any reason to doubt the appropriateness of the Poisson model?
Justify your answer. [2 marks]
c) Taking 2.94 as an estimate for the mean of the underlying population, find the probabilities
corresponding to x = 0, x = 1 and x ≥ 8.
Hence obtain the expected frequencies corresponding to the observed frequencies for these values of x.
[5 marks]
The expected and observed frequencies are used to carry out a test of the goodness of fit of the Poisson
model. The cells for x = 7 and x ≥ 8 are merged. The calculated statistic for the Χ2 test is 4.497.
d) What is the conclusion of the test when a 5% significance level is used? Justify your answer using an
appropriate critical value. [4 marks]

cychin acsipoh
MATHEMATICS T 3 954/3

END OF QUESTION PAPER

MATHEMATICS T
PAPER 3
(One hour 30 minutes)
SMK METHODIST (ACS) IPOH
STPM 2014 TRIAL EXAMINATION
Instructions to candidates:
Answer all questions in Section A and any one question in Section B. Answers are to be written in
English.
All necessary working should be shown clearly.
Scientific calculators may be used. Programmable and graphic display calculators are prohibited.
A list of mathematical formulae and statistical tables are provided.

Section A [45 marks]


Answer all questions in this section

1. At the end of a football league season, the numbers of goals scored by 26 teams in the local league were
as follows.

22 23 23 23 24 24 25 26 27 28 28 29 30
31 33 33 34 34 35 35 36 36 37 46 49 49

a) Calculate the mean and variance of these data. [3 marks]


b) Find the median and interquartile range. [4 marks]
c) Draw a boxplot to represent the data. [3 marks]

1 a) 820
mean =
26
= 31.538 B1
∑ x2
( )
27342 820 2 M1 √ for mean but strict on
variance = −
26 26
= 56.941 A1 3, 4 or 5 sig.fig.
b) 30+31 B1
r = 13; median = = 30.5
2
r = 6.5; Q1 = 25 B1 With working, either one.
r = 19.5; Q3 = 35 Without working, both.
Interquartile range = 35 - 25 M1  ‘his’
= 10 A1

D1 Box and whiskers.


D1 Median line, scale from 22 to 49 (not
(indep.) necessary uniform)
| | | | |
22 25 30.5 35 49 D1 All correct, left whisker shorter than
right and median almost centered.
( 10)

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MATHEMATICS T 4 954/3
2. There are 20 teachers and 15 lecturers attending a conference. The number of women teachers and that of
women lecturers are 12 and 5 respectively. Four participants from this group are selected randomly to
lead some sessions of outdoor activities.
a) Find the probability that three teachers are selected. [2 marks]
b) Given that two women are selected, find the probability that both of them are teachers.[2 marks]

2(a)
M1 (Strict)
Probability = or

A1
= or 0.32659
(b)

M1 (Strict)

Probability = or or or

A1 3, 4 or 5 sig.fig.
= or 0.48529
(4)

3 A continuous random variable, X, has probability density function

{
1
f ( x )= 72
( 8 x−x 2 ) 2≤ x ≤ 8 ,
0 otherwise
a) Find F(x), the cumulative distribution function of X. [3 marks]
b) Sketch F(x). [2 marks]
c) The median of X is m. Verify that m ≈ 4.42. [3 marks]

3 x
1 (
F(x) = ∫ 8 t−t ) dt
2
a.
2 72

[ ]
1 t
3 x M1 integration
2
= 4t −
72 3 2
2 3
12 x −x −40 A1 or equivalent
=
216

{
0 x<2
23 A1 Correct format with continuous
F ( x )= 12 x −x −40 2≤ x ≤ 8 domain
216
1 x >8

b.

D1 cubic curve between (2, 0) and (8, 1)

D1 ‘all’ correct include labels

c. 12m2−m3−40 1 B1 1
= strictly
216 2 2
cychin acsipoh
MATHEMATICS T 5 954/3
By subst. m ≈ 4.42 into 3 2
m −12 m +148 M1 Substitution to show consistency
=0 ∴ median is A1
4.42.
(8)

4. A survey conducted in a school found that 136 out of 400 students like Mathematics.
a) Find the unbiased estimates of the proportion of students who like Mathematics in the school. Explain
why an interval estimate is more informative than a point estimate. [2 marks]
b) A random sample of n students is chosen from the school. If the 95% symmetric confidence interval for
the proportion of students who like Mathematics in the school is (0.445, 0.235), find the value of n.
[5 marks]
4 Unbiased estimates of population proportion, p = or 0.34 B1
a)
Interval estimate gives the (percentage/probability/chances) B1
that the real value of the population parameter will lie within
the interval/range stated.

b) Standard error = 0.105 B1 may be implied


1.96 × = 0.105 B1 strict on 1.96subst. all ‘his’ p
M1  value from a)
n = 78.191 A1
n = 78 A1 CAO (integer)
(7)

5. Over a long period of time, 20% of all vases made by a particular factory are imperfect and cannot be
sold.

a) Find the probability that fewer than 4 vases from a random sample of 10 made by the factory are
imperfect. [2 marks]
b) The factory introduces a new machine for producing vases. To test whether there has been an
improvement, each of a random sample of 20 vases made by the new machine is examined. From this
sample, 2 vases are found to be imperfect.

Show that this does not provide evidence, at the 5% level of significance, of a reduction in the proportion
of imperfect vases. You should show your hypotheses and calculations clearly. [6 marks]

5(a) X ~ B(10, 0.2)


P(X < 4) = P(X ≤ 3) M1
OR attempt to sum P(X = 0, 1, 2, 3) using X ~ B(10,0.2)
= 0.87913 A1
(b) Let p = the probability that a bowl is imperfect B1
H0 : p = 0.2
H1 : p < 0.2 B1 (both)
X ~ B(20, 0.2) Summing the correct 3 terms using

cychin acsipoh
MATHEMATICS T 6 954/3
P(X ≤ 2) = . . . M1 binomial formula.
= 0.20608 A1 3, 4 or 5 sig.fig.
0.2061 > 0.05 (5%) M1 strict on 5 %.
Cannot reject H0 and so insufficient evidence to claim a A1 comment in context
reduction.
Accept H0.
OR using critical region method:
CR is {0} B1, 2 not in CR M1, A1 as above
B1 Definition of the hypotheses.
(8)

6. The school canteen operator undertakes a survey of the numbers and types of drinks ordered by a random
sample of 400 students in the school. The students are categorized as lower secondary, upper secondary
or sixth former. The drinks are categorized as mineral water or sweetened drinks. A table of the results
of the survey is as follows.
Type of drink
Mineral water Sweetened drinks
Type Lower Secondary 54 63
of Upper Secondary 95 41
student Sixth Former 71 76
Carry out a test at the 5% level of significance to examine whether there is any association between type of
student and type of drink. State carefully your null and alternative hypotheses. [8 marks]

6 H0: no association between student and drink types;


B1 both
H1: some association between student and drink types;
Type of drink
Expected Mineral Sweetened Row totals
water drinks
Lower for expected values
Secondar 64.35 52.65 117 (Either 1st row or 1st column)
M1
y
Type
Upper
of
Secondar 74.80 61.20 136
student
y
Sixth
80.85 66.15 147
Former
Column totals 220 180 400
Type of drink Row totals
Chi squared
Mineral Sweetened
contribution
water drinks
Lower
Secondar 1.665 2.035 3.699 for valid attempt at Χ 2 value
y M1 (Either 1st row or 1st column)
Type
Upper
of
Secondar 5.455 6.667 12.122
student
y
Sixth
1.200 1.467 2.667
Former
X 2 = 18.49 A1 (3, 4 or 5 sig. fig.)
deg. of freedom = (3 – 1)(2 – 1) = 2 B1
Critical value at 5% level = 5.991 B1 CAO
Since 18.49 > 5.991, Result is significant M1
There is some association between student type and type of drink. A1 must be in context
cychin acsipoh
MATHEMATICS T 7 954/3
(8)

Section B [15 marks]

Answer only one question in this section.

7. A courier company is investigating operations at a cost center where delays often occur. Delays (in
minutes) are modelled by the random variable T with the following cumulative distribution function.

{
0 t≤0
F ( t )= −1
t
3
1−e t >0

a) Find the median delay and the 90th percentile delay. [4 marks]
b) Define the probability density function of T.
Hence use calculus to find the mean delay. [4 marks]
c) Find the probability that a delay lasts longer than the mean delay. [2 marks]

You are given that the variance of T is 9.

d) Let T denote the mean of a random sample of 36 delays. Write down an approximation to the
distribution of T . [2 marks]
e) A random sample of 36 delays is found to have mean 4.2 minutes. By using a significant level of 5%,
does this cast any doubt on the modelling? [3 marks]

7 1
−m
3
B1
(a) For median m, =1−e
2
−m 1 M1
=ln
3 2
m = 2.0794 A1 3, 4 or 5 sig. fig.
90th percentile p, 0.9 = 1- e
−p
3  p = 6.9078 A1 3, 4 or 5 sig. fig.

{
(b) −1
1 3 t M1 correct differentiation
e t >0
f ( t )= 3
A1 correct format
0 otherwise
∞ −1
1 t
µ=∫ te 3
dt
0 3

cychin acsipoh
MATHEMATICS T 8 954/3

[( ) ]
−1
t −1
1 e3 t M1 Integration by parts
= 3 t −1 +3∫ e
3
.1. dt
3
=... =3 A1
(c) P(T > µ) = e
−μ
3 =e −1 M1 either from cdf or via pdf

1 A1 CAO (do not accept dec. numbers)


=
e

( 14 )
(d) B1 Normal Approx. with ‘his’ mean.
T ~ (approx.) N 3 , B1 All correct

( )
(e) 4.2−3
P Z≥ M1
Test Statistics: 3 = P(Z ≥2.4)
√36
= 0.0082
Since 0.0082< 0.025, M1
it is doubtful that the model is suitable. A1
( 15 )

√ √
or 1 = 4.1 M1 1
µ+2σ=3+2× strict on
4 4
Argument based on “4.2 is more than 2σ from µ. M1 (µ - 2σ, µ + 2σ) is within 95% conf.
It is doubtful that the model is suitable. A1 interval.

8. An enforcement officer from the health department is monitoring the presence of mosquito larvae of a
certain species in a septic pond. He collects a random sample of water specimens from the river, each
containing the same volume, and counts the number of these larvae in each specimen. He believes that the
number of larvae in these specimens may be modelled using a Poisson distribution.

a) Write down the conditions for a Poisson model to apply. [2 marks]

The officer’s results are as follows.

Number of larvae, x 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 ≥8
Observed frequency, f 10 33 48 40 32 17 15 5 0

b) The sample standard deviation is 1.713, correct to 3 decimal places.


(i) Find the sample mean number of larvae. [2 marks]
(ii) Do these statistics give you any reason to doubt the appropriateness of the Poisson model?
Justify your answer. [2 marks]
c) Taking 2.94 as an estimate for the mean of the underlying population, find the probabilities
corresponding to x = 0, x = 1 and x ≥ 8.
Hence obtain the expected frequencies corresponding to the observed frequencies for these values of x.
[5 marks]

The expected and observed frequencies are used to carry out a test of the goodness of fit of the Poisson
model. The cells for x = 7 and x ≥ 8 are merged. The calculated statistic for the Χ2 test is 4.497.

d) What is the conclusion of the test when a 5% significance level is used? Justify your answer using an
appropriate critical value. [4 marks]

8(a) Bacteria occur randomly B1 random


with a uniform mean rate of occurrence B1 uniform mean rate
cychin acsipoh
MATHEMATICS T 9 954/3
(b)i Σfx ÷ Σf = 587 ÷ 200 M1
= 2.935 A1
ii Variance = 1.7132 = 2.934 M1
mean ≈ variance  does not give any reason to doubt suitability of A1
the Poisson model
(c) r 0 1 ≥8 M1 using Poisson formula
P(X = r) 0.05287 0.15543 0.01064 A1 any one correct.
A1 all correct.
Expected freq. 10.574 31.086 2.128 M1 √ his prob. × 200
A1 ≥ 2 dec. pl.
(d) degrees of freedom = (8 – 1) = 7 M1
Critical value at 5% level is X2 = 14.07 A1 CAO
Since 4.497 < 14.07, so not significant M1
The Poisson model seems a good fit. A1 ( 15)

END OF QUESTION PAPER

Prepared by : ........................................... Approved by : ...................................

(En Chin Chan Yew) (Pn Kwan Ping Ping)

cychin acsipoh

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